I see this group as almost a mirror image of the '95 Jags where they had a group of talented recievers, none of which emerged as a true threat. However, I do feel as if this group is much more talented, but some questions do still exist.
For the record, Matt Jones and Reggie Williams are split out wide for me, Ernest Wilford at the slot Cortez Hankton/Chad Owens splitting time at #4.
Matt Jones:
The most important thing here to note is that he will be the team's featured reciever. Though that does mean he'll be going up against the elite corners of the game it also signals the progress Jones has had in learning the position and puts him in line for significant targets. Secondly, the progress he achieved with Byron Leftwich, especially nearing the time of Leftwich's injury was significant and was indicative of the growing rapport between the two.
Statistical Analysis: Looking at past history gives Jones a very good outlook. Under Byron Leftwich and Jack Del Rio, and without a true #2, Jimmy Smith was
good for 70+ receptions and 1000+ yards every year since 2002 (when McCardell left) if his stats from 2003 (drug suspension) is extrapolated. Surely I am not saying that Matt Jones is equally as talented as Jimmy Smith but some numbers cannot be denied.
Every year since 2002, the #1 WR recieved >30% of the Jaguars' WR completions and cracked 40% once and 50% once. In short, Jones will benefit from the inconsistant play of Wilford and Williams and if, by continuation, he recieves above 30% (probably closer to 40%) of the WR completions, then he is in line for about 65-75 receptions, and because he is not Jimmy Smith, I'd be tempted to downgrade slightly. I'd set the caps at 60 and 75 receptions respectively and
think he will fall somewhere in the middle, towards the lower end.
Abstract analysis: Jones is a freak physically which may reduce the learning curve and allow him flexibility in running sloppy routes, but he does require significant work in a few areas.
What he needs to be able to do is to get consistant, clean breaks off the jam. While Jones does not have the greatest first step, he has superb acceleration and could really be a terror if he isnt stopped up by the jam. Since he
will be facing better, and presumably more physical corners this season, he will have to get this down quickly- and it isnt that easy. Many speculate its his experience at QB (hesitation after the snap as opposed to WR's exploding off the line but I do think that with experience, he will have this down.
His physical nature will most certainly help him, if he can push off and break the jam, he is a bona fide home run threat. Couple that with
improved O-line depth (hopefully they can now field the best unit instead of the only unit) and Byron Leftwich and he becomes the key to the offense. Lots of responsibility for the sophmore but i feel as if he can handle it.
63 receptions, 880 yards and 9TD's ---> Call me bullish but he did average a TD every 7.1 catches last season (7.0 under leftwich). YPC is up but receptions will not approach 70 and will be spread much more.
Thanks to OZ for some corrections
Reggie Williams:
Ernest Wilford:
Keenan McCardell aside, the Jags'
#2 WR has historically been not so productive. That changed last year when Wilford burst out of nowhere to become the team's leading red zone threat despite limited receptions and yardage. But it didnt start out that way.
Reggie Williams seemed to be finding his groove in the jags offense when a head injury in week 7 sidelined him for the majority of the remaining season. This year, the two figure to split time at #2 but all indications are that Williams will recieve the majority of the time.
Statistical Analysis: First, let me explain why I think Reggie gets more time at #2 than wilford.
1.)
Reggie Williams is simply a more consistant reciever. Out of the 10 games that each reciever played considerable time in, Reggie recorded more 3-reception (3) 4 reception (4) and the same # of 5-reception (1) games as Wilford. While this may strike you as insignificant, it hints to the fact that wilford often disappeared from games and, looking at the game stats this is confirmed. Wilford, aside from his torching the rams in week 8, wilford only had three games where he caught for more than 40 yards. Two games were against Houston and one against Tenessee. Sure, he may be superb in the red zone but really not the production you look for between the 20's as a #2. Williams, on the other hand, averaged around 44 yards a game. And was really quite consistant in doing so.
2.) The second reason is more of a negative to Wilford than a positive for Williams. Williams led the team in the reception/target ratio (56%) but Reggie also scored in the low-50%.
The difference is in the drops. It was revealed by Football Scientist KC Joyner in an article that was Insider material but copied
HERE. In short, Wilford led the NFL in drops vs. catchable passes. Subjective, indeed so. But it was a knock on him all season and no doubt JDR took note. Williams was nothing spectacular but did lead the team in the reception/target ratio and had the fewest drops last season of the 4 leading recievers.
Abstract Analysis:
Williams carved out a niche for himself as a
fearless reciever that doesnt mind going over the middle and taking a hit. He is also a
very good blocker downfield making him more valuable on an everydown basis compared to wilford. In fact, the only real downside to Reggie's history have been his injuries and his lack of TD's.
But in all honesty, I think he is overlooked as a red-zone threat. He has great physical measurables and in his rookie campaign actually caught two 2-pt conversions and a TD that should have been called inbounds. Its just that there are better options on the team. Byron tends to lock on to recievers so that may have something to do with it.
Another point of interest is that Williams was one of the players most adversely affected by Leftwich's injury.
Projections:
Its strange to see this situation but i guess its for the best. IMO Williams will be used as an everydown reciever while wilford will not. Its hard to see 3-WR sets when the Jags have made an investment in Marcedes Lewis and in Kyle Brady, who is a valuable cog to that run blocking scheme. We may see more 2-TE sets, cutting into Wilford's playing time.
Nonetheless, in the red zone, Wilford will be called upon to perform and should be a threat again. With Marcedes Lewis abord, its hard to say he'll be the primary target, but I have a feeling he may surprise.
Reggie Williams: 52 catches, 700 yards, 3 TD's
Ernest Wilford: 40 catches, 575 yards, 5 TD's
Marcedes Lewis: 28 catches, 300 yards, 3 TD's
Now, according to this,
Williams is not the better ADP pick unless its a PPR league. In which case, its a great value pick. In comparison to FBG, im down on Wilford, a little bullish with williams and dead on with lewis. Hope this all helps
