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Player Spotlight: Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Frank Gore, RB, San Francisco 49ers

Player Page Link: Frank Gore Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Not surprising that this spotlight is empty. Gore isn't a player to get excited about this year. After a career plagued by injuries, he finally managed to play back-to-back 16 game seasons and finished #11 and #12, so it's not surprising that he is slipping to RB17 as he enters his 9th season at age 30. Despite his age, I don't think anyone expects him to finish worse than his ADP if he plays 16 games. San Francisco is a team built to run. Top notch defense, great offensive line. But SF has consistently been hedging their bets on Gore by drafting a running back each year for at least the past 3 years.

With their second leading rusher (Hunter) trying to comeback from a debilitating achilles injury and the signing of the tough, excellent run blocking WR Boldin, Gore should be in for another solid performance if Kaepernick can at least come close to the pace he was playing at to finish the season last year. As the goal line back, he could be in for double digit touchdowns.

But despite all the missed time, Gore has amassed over 2000 career (regular season and postseason) carries and actually played in 19 games last year (and 18 games the year before), bringing his season total to over 300 carries. Given his age and mileage, it's hard to advocate reaching for him above his current price of an early 3rd round pick, although it could be nearly as rewarding for you as it was for those who drafted a 31 year old Curtis Martin.

16 games x 16 carries = 256 x 4.5 ypc = 1152 yds 10 TDs, 25 rec x 8 ypr = 200 yds 1 TD

 

jesseasi

Footballguy
As an owner of Gore - I don't want to give out my projections as they will be very biased.

But I will say this - SF is going to be a very run heavy team with Gore being asked to carry the brunt of the work. I don't have confidence Hunter will ever be the same - just look at LeShoure in Detroit and LaMichael James is nothing more than a change of pace / 3rd down back.

Gore is going to be the center piece of this offense as San Fran tries to find ways to make up for the loss of Crabtree. I look for Gore to finish ahead of his ADP and will make owners very happy. His dynasty value is not there and you can't expect much for a 30yr old RB - but teams trying to win - Gore is going to be very helpful this year.

Ah what the heck

1200 yards, 11 TD, 25 rec 200 yards 1TD.

Very nice season.

 

Borden

Footballguy
I've been watching so much video on rookies that I decided to watch Frank Gore highlights and he is really good. Love the way he runs. James is a CoP, Hunter is a back up. Lattimore take the torch next year but for now...

265/1300/12 on the ground.

 

NYJ

Footballguy
Every year people say he is ready to hit the wall and every year he outperforms his ADP. It will happen again this year. Run first offense with the best OL and power running game in football. LaMichael James will get some touches but not enough to eat into Gore's fantasy production. Great RB2 with low end RB1 potential.

250 carries, 1100 yards, 10 TD's.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
I wanted to go into the Frank Gore spotlight being able to uncover usage and production trends of Gore before and after the ascension of Colin Kaepernick. But aside from a YPC variance of less than half a yard that could easily be attributed to fresher legs at the beginning of the season (or any other number of factors)…I didn’t really spot any. Gore has simply been one of the steadiest producers on the field from the RB position over the last 5-6 years. While a capable receiver out of the backfield, Jim Harbaugh has sought to de-emphasize Gore in the passing attack as he’s only totaled 45 receptions the last two seasons combined (his previous 5 year seasonal average for receptions had been 51). So the multi-dimensionality that used to come with Gore’s game is largely gone. However, the last two seasons under Harbaugh have seen him put up career high rushing totals 2 years running. What Harbaugh has seemingly figured out is that you couldn’t have Gore be one of the best between the tackle runners in the NFL and also have him be a main cog in the passing game. Whether you can attribute Gore’s string of not missing a game under Harbaugh to that can’t fully be determined, but they’ve been the first two full 16 game schedules Gore has played since 2006 when he burst onto the NFL scene.

Gore is 30 now. Conventional wisdom would suggest that Gore should be entering 3.5 YPCville shortly. But I wonder if that bit of conventional wisdom is holding as true as it used to. We’ve now gone through an NFL generation where carries on bellcow ruhsers have been managed with much more prudence. Here are the average number of rushes for those who finished in the Top 10 in the following years.

2002: 328.2
2007: 304.8
2011: 284.8
2012: 307.3


Gore has been a beneficiary of that trend, only exceeding 300 carries in one of his NFL seasons (2006) and only exceeding 300 touches twice (2007). I don’t know if any single determining factor(age, workload) can be honed in on to predict an RB’s decline. But from what I saw last season, Gore seems just as good as he ever was. He hasn’t lost the ability to maneuver in traffic but still run strong. Not to mention, he probably has one of, if not the best o-line in football. While he doesn’t have mid-high RB1 upside, he can scrape the low levels of that tier by sheer consistency. Gone are the days where he could break off long runs consistently (2 over 40 yards the last two seasons) and as mentioned before gain significant easy yards in the passing game. But he’s an integral piece to SF’s offense still, he’s become more durable which was a mark in the negative column some years back and is the perfect type of back to pair as an RB2 if you have a Top 3-4 pick at the 2-3 turn if you choose to go RB/RB.

Prediction: 266 Rushes, 1176 Rushing Yards 7 TD’s 20 Receptions 134 Receiving Yards 1 TD.

 

need2know

Footballguy
So who is the handcuff? I was assuming Hunter, but with his foot injury is he still the guy? I wonder if it's even worth drafting any of his back ups in redraft. I see good things for gore this season if he remains healthy. 1200 to 1400 total yards and 10 tds is a safe bet. one of the better values in redrafts this year

 
So who is the handcuff? I was assuming Hunter, but with his foot injury is he still the guy? I wonder if it's even worth drafting any of his back ups in redraft. I see good things for gore this season if he remains healthy. 1200 to 1400 total yards and 10 tds is a safe bet. one of the better values in redrafts this year
:goodposting:

This is my question as someone who just drafted him in a dynasty/keeper startup then loaded up on Lattimore and Hunter as well. Do I need James too? Sure hope not.

For Gore, I expect similar production to last year and the year before on a per game basis, which was pretty damn good. 16 games? Probably not likely, but then again how many RBs do you feel confident will play 16 games? He's proven, he's in a very friendly offense for running and the passing game has questions, so things look good for this year.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
In 11 games after Kaepernick took over(regular and post season), Gore averaged 19.6 touches, 94.4 yfs, 0.818 TD, and 14.35 fantasy ppg. Had he matched that production for the entire season last year, that would have ranked as the #6 RB based on ppg (0 ppr).

I don't know if Gore can continue to get in the end zone at that rate (or put up 320 touches over a full season), but he makes for an intriguing fantasy pick this year (unless of course people think he will catch the plague and wither and die because he turned 30).

Here were his fantasy ppr rankings since he became a regular starter . . .

2012 - 12

2011 - 17

2010 - 8

2009 - 4

2008 - 14

2007 - 12

2006 - 5

His ADP is currently RB 22. Again, unless people are thinking his leg is going to fall off, Gore looks like a very good value play this season, especially with Crabtree out.

265-1230-9 with 30-240-1

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
His ADP is currently RB 22. Again, unless people are thinking his leg is going to fall off, Gore looks like a very good value play this season, especially with Crabtree out.
Where you getting that? I use this. It says RB17. Seems like a modest price reduction for a guy who is 30 years old and finished #11 and #12 the last two years. You draft him 5 positions earlier and you are drafting him near his ceiling. I like Gore, but I think his ADP is very reasonable, especially considering his injury history and his total workload last year (322 carries, 30 receptions in 19 games).

 

scothawk

Footballguy
Hunter could be crazy value . What's the latest on his recovery? Worth watching closely during camp.

If Gore was to get hurt then Hunter would be incredible value when he steps in.

The whole Gore-injury debate has been done many times before, but a healthy Hunter has a huge upside here.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Gore will be a steady #2RB again. SF will run the ball a lot, and Kaepernick's running ability will help create lanes for Gore. Doesn't have a ton of upside, since Kaepernick will steal a bunch of TDs and Gore doesn't catch as many passes as he did in the past.

260 car, 1100 rush yds, 9 TD

20 rec, 125 rec yds, 0 TD

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Gore will be a steady #2RB again. SF will run the ball a lot, and Kaepernick's running ability will help create lanes for Gore. Doesn't have a ton of upside, since Kaepernick will steal a bunch of TDs and Gore doesn't catch as many passes as he did in the past.
That pretty much nails what I was thinking. He is not a guy to get excited about, but should be a solid RB2 on any team.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
I can see why people like him as a RB2 since he has RB1 upside. If this ADP holds Gore is a guy I would be looking at as a possible RB1 I can get for a RB2 price if I take other positions early in the draft such as Calvin or Graham in the early rounds and need a RB to make up for skipping them a round.

In dynasty even better if you can get him as a cheap rental from someone worried about exit value. Much like Steven Jackson Gore could still have another good season in 2014 at age 31. I would not be counting on him for anything in 2015 but Gore is very good when healthy.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Hunter could be crazy value . What's the latest on his recovery? Worth watching closely during camp.

If Gore was to get hurt then Hunter would be incredible value when he steps in.

The whole Gore-injury debate has been done many times before, but a healthy Hunter has a huge upside here.
I'm always very wary of guys coming off of achilles injuries. I'm sure the latest on his recovery is that he's ahead of schedule and looking better than ever. Don't put too much stock in those reports when they start flooding in.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
So who is the handcuff? I was assuming Hunter, but with his foot injury is he still the guy? I wonder if it's even worth drafting any of his back ups in redraft. I see good things for gore this season if he remains healthy. 1200 to 1400 total yards and 10 tds is a safe bet. one of the better values in redrafts this year
This is just one from the gut, but considering the style of play Gore posesses, I'm not sure his best handcuff is on the team right now, especially considering the injury to Hunter. It looks funny even to type it but I can see a scenario where if Gore were to get hurt during the season, a guy like Beanie Wells would be the best fit for the basic running and leave the other stuff to Hunter and James who would (I think) be healthier a little deeper into the season.

 

johnadams

Footballguy
So who is the handcuff? I was assuming Hunter, but with his foot injury is he still the guy? I wonder if it's even worth drafting any of his back ups in redraft. I see good things for gore this season if he remains healthy. 1200 to 1400 total yards and 10 tds is a safe bet. one of the better values in redrafts this year
Ideally, I suspect the niners want Hunter to be the primary back-up and are waiting a bit longer to see if they can avoid having to get a free agent to play the role. From what I've read, Hunter is expected to be ready for training camp, though it seems likely that he'll remain a bit limited. I think what we saw last year is the niners ideal workload for Gore (around 250 carries) though if Hunter comes back good as new, I wouldn't be surprised if this was closer to 220.

Assuming health for Gore and Hunter, I think the niners backfield breaks out like this:

Gore: 225 carries, 1000 yds, 8 TDs, 20 receptions, 160 yds, 0 TDs.

Hunter: 120 carries, 575 yds, 4 TDs, 20 rec, 200 yds, 1 TD.

James: 40 carries, 200 yds, 2 TDs, 40 rec, 370 yds, 2 TDs

This leaves 100 to 130 carries for Kaep, Miller, WRs, and a fourth RB like Dixon.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
1100 yds 10 tds 20 rec 195 yds and 1 td

His value is obviously in his tds. Has more value in a nonppr league since I do not predict many receptions (caught less, but did have a higher ypc with Kaepernick).

Steady producer but he does not have the IT factor.

Only 1 regular season game (3 if counting playoffs) with 100 yards and 1 td and 0 zero games with 2 tds during the regular season (did have 1 in the playoffs).

Steady, nothing wow about him you but he rarely gives you nothing.

 
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johnadams

Footballguy
His value is obviously in his tds.
I don't really agree with this. He's averaging 8 TDs per year (9.2 TDs per 16 games), which, while not terrible, doesn't boost his value over what else he brings. Last year, he ranked 10th in total TDs for RBs, which is right around his overall finish, which means that his TDs are ahead of the rest of his production.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
His value is obviously in his tds.
I don't really agree with this. He's averaging 8 TDs per year (9.2 TDs per 16 games), which, while not terrible, doesn't boost his value over what else he brings. Last year, he ranked 10th in total TDs for RBs, which is right around his overall finish, which means that his TDs are ahead of the rest of his production.
Yeah, he is not a stud, but he is okay because he has steady touchdown production. He won't win you games by himself, but he will not lose them either. Strong and steady. Unsexy and a zero ev play where he is being taken.

Gore is a better pick for someone who has a strong number 1 back--not as good a pick if you went wr/te wr/other early on.

 
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efactor

Footballguy
His value is obviously in his tds.
I don't really agree with this. He's averaging 8 TDs per year (9.2 TDs per 16 games), which, while not terrible, doesn't boost his value over what else he brings. Last year, he ranked 10th in total TDs for RBs, which is right around his overall finish, which means that his TDs are ahead of the rest of his production.
Yeah, he is not a stud, but he is okay because he has steady touchdown production. He won't win you games by himself, but he will not lose them either. Strong and steady. Unsexy and a zero ev play where he is being taken.

Gore is a better pick for someone who has a strong number 1 back--not as good a pick if you went wr/te wr/other early on.
Yep.

High of 18.2 in standard scoring in 2012 but only 5 games below 10 points. Charles and Chris Johnson had 7 games below 10 as a comparison.

That said, he seems overvalued a bit this year compared to last. I recall him going around the 5th round (he went mid 6th in my FFPC league) in most drafts last year and seems to be a late 2nd, early 3rd this year. Personally, I would have to pass at that point. 4th round seems about right to me.

 

Anarchy99

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller or Wilson have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.
In my case, I opted for Rodgers in the 2nd over a RB, and in my particular case I don't think I ended up lacking at RB.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller or Wilson have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.
In my case, I opted for Rodgers in the 2nd over a RB, and in my particular case I don't think I ended up lacking at RB.
I do not think you did either. Spiller is a stud imo so gore will be fine as your #2. However, do you take Gore as your number 1 rb if you had taken Calvin and Rodgers? ;)

If you took spiller did you not take him in the first 2 rounds? :P

Your initial question was

For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be?
 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
My league is 0 PPR, so that deflates guys like Bush and Sproles. Given that, I don't see why Gore would be a bad choice for teams that went WR/QB with at least 15 other RB off the board. If you really ended up with +points at WR and QB, I think Gore would be a great option as a RB1. He won't get many mega scoring weeks, but he won't hurt you in the long run either.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
My league is 0 PPR, so that deflates guys like Bush and Sproles. Given that, I don't see why Gore would be a bad choice for teams that went WR/QB with at least 15 other RB off the board. If you really ended up with +points at WR and QB, I think Gore would be a great option as a RB1. He won't get many mega scoring weeks, but he won't hurt you in the long run either.
Because it adds more pressure to hit on those WR/QB when you picked a zero (debatable) ev player in rd 3.

You're giving yourself no leeway to gain even more ground--playing it safe.

I agree, no Sproles if not ppr. That being said, Gore is more valuable in a nonppr league so he may not be zero ev. I cannot say with confidence as I play in ppr leagues.

 
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Kwai Chang Caine

Footballguy
I took him round four (42 overall) in a twelve team ppr. Guy like Sproles and Bush were taken round two. I paired him with Charles, Marshal and Cobb and feel really good about having a steady guy on a team that should win a lot of games and score a decent amount of TDs. No he isn't "sexy" but I've watched that guy go round four the last two years and the fantasy teams have done well.

He's the kind of pick you don't get excited about but could quietly finish between 10-15 even in ppr. Hard to argue that for middle of fourth round IMHO.

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window
While I hear what you are saying and I agree in 2013 taking a RB in the 1st 2 picks is likely a good idea, there are players I will take over the RB. Particularly if I am drafting in the middle and I do not like what is left to me.

VBD advantage (or ev) can come from any position. If I did pass on RB in one of the 1st 2 rounds (or both) Gore is a player I feel I can count on as my lead RB. While Gore may not be giving me a VBD advantage over the RB taken before him, I like his chances to break even with them often enough that my advantage at other positions can make up the difference.

I think you are stating your preference, to draft a RB earlier than Gore but that preference does not necessarily mean that drafting Gore as your 1st RB taken (after drafting some other positions) is going to bad for your team, or a bad idea.

I happen to think that the 49ers are going to run the ball more with Crabtree out. I expect them to lean heavily on Gore and Hunter. The 49ers in 2012 had 436pa and 492ra (94 by QB). In 2011 451pa and 498ra (52 from QB). So based on the last 2 years under Harbaugh, returning Oline, reduced passing options, I expect them to continue to run the ball around 500 times. 50-90 of those runs will be from the QB leaving 400-440 for the RB.

I have Gore getting 240-310ra 4.3-4.6ypc 1032-1426 yards 6-9TD 20-40 receptions 7.4-8.6ypc 148-296 yards1-3TD or 1080-1722 yards 7-12TD

 
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silentcoach

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window
While I hear what you are saying and I agree in 2013 taking a RB in the 1st 2 picks is likely a good idea, there are players I will take over the RB. Particularly if I am drafting in the middle and I do not like what is left to me.

VBD advantage (or ev) can come from any position. If I did pass on RB in one of the 1st 2 rounds (or both) Gore is a player I feel I can count on as my lead RB. While Gore may not be giving me a VBD advantage over the RB taken before him, I like his chances to break even with them often enough that my advantage at other positions can make up the difference.

I think you are stating your preference, to draft a RB earlier than Gore but that preference does not necessarily mean that drafting Gore as your 1st RB taken (after drafting some other positions) is going to bad for your team, or a bad idea.

I happen to think that the 49ers are going to run the ball more with Crabtree out. I expect them to lean heavily on Gore and Hunter. The 49ers in 2012 had 436pa and 492ra (94 by QB). In 2011 451pa and 498ra (52 from QB). So based on the last 2 years under Harbaugh, returning Oline, reduced passing options, I expect them to continue to run the ball around 500 times. 50-90 of those runs will be from the QB leaving 400-440 for the RB.

I have Gore getting 240-310ra 4.3-4.6ypc 1032-1426 yards 6-9TD 20-40 receptions 7.4-8.6ypc 148-296 yards1-3TD or 1080-1722 yards 7-12TD
I do agree that it comes down to your projections. If you have him doing better than I do, then we are just arguing on projections, which is a separate issue. At the projections I have Gore listed at, and the fact that I do not think he can help you wins games by himself (safe pick because he has a low floor, but has a low ceiling too), I would not take him as a number 1 rb for the reasons stated above.

While I think Gore is a zero ev play, there is also risk that he will not be a break even player--that has to be taken into account. This puts even more pressure on your first 2 rd picks. However, this is a moot argument if you think Gore will have better stats than I think.

I think you are stating your preference, to draft a RB earlier than Gore but that preference does not necessarily mean that drafting Gore as your 1st RB taken (after drafting some other positions) is going to bad for your team, or a bad idea.
Not exactly. I was stating a preference to take another RB instead of Gore in rd 3. And that Gore is a better complimentary number 2 back if you grabbed a stud back earlier.

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window
While I hear what you are saying and I agree in 2013 taking a RB in the 1st 2 picks is likely a good idea, there are players I will take over the RB. Particularly if I am drafting in the middle and I do not like what is left to me.

VBD advantage (or ev) can come from any position. If I did pass on RB in one of the 1st 2 rounds (or both) Gore is a player I feel I can count on as my lead RB. While Gore may not be giving me a VBD advantage over the RB taken before him, I like his chances to break even with them often enough that my advantage at other positions can make up the difference.

I think you are stating your preference, to draft a RB earlier than Gore but that preference does not necessarily mean that drafting Gore as your 1st RB taken (after drafting some other positions) is going to bad for your team, or a bad idea.

I happen to think that the 49ers are going to run the ball more with Crabtree out. I expect them to lean heavily on Gore and Hunter. The 49ers in 2012 had 436pa and 492ra (94 by QB). In 2011 451pa and 498ra (52 from QB). So based on the last 2 years under Harbaugh, returning Oline, reduced passing options, I expect them to continue to run the ball around 500 times. 50-90 of those runs will be from the QB leaving 400-440 for the RB.

I have Gore getting 240-310ra 4.3-4.6ypc 1032-1426 yards 6-9TD 20-40 receptions 7.4-8.6ypc 148-296 yards1-3TD or 1080-1722 yards 7-12TD
I do agree that it comes down to your projections. If you have him doing better than I do, then we are just arguing on projections, which is a separate issue. At the projections I have Gore listed at, and the fact that I do not think he can help you wins games by himself (safe pick because he has a low floor, but has a low ceiling too), I would not take him as a number 1 rb for the reasons stated above.

While I think Gore is a zero ev play, there is also risk that he will not be a break even player--that has to be taken into account. This puts even more pressure on your first 2 rd picks.
This is the crux of the problem. I look at Gore and look at his VBD scores that he's already earned. Since becoming a starter, his annual VBD scores have been 111, 54, 41, 80, 22, 32, and 79. Yet you are assigning him an upside score of 0. Maybe we are arguing semantics, but that tells me that you are projecting him to perform significantly worse than he has the past 7 years. As I've already outlined, I don't think that is the case, and after the QB change last year Gore's fantasy scoring actually went up and stayed high in the NFL playoffs.

If you want to ignore that and project him to do significantly worse, that's your prerogative. But based on past performance, up until now he has not shown to have a negative EV. If you would rather draft for home runs instead of singles and doubles, that's also up to you. But I would argue that if you really drafted elite high end scorers at other positions (like Calvin and Rodgers in your earlier example), I would suggest you are better suited getting a consistent scorer at RB that risking shoot for the moon home run or strike out type back. I might fish for that later in the draft, but probably not in the 3rd or 4th round.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Anarchy99 said:
silentcoach said:
Biabreakable said:
silentcoach said:
Anarchy99 said:
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window
While I hear what you are saying and I agree in 2013 taking a RB in the 1st 2 picks is likely a good idea, there are players I will take over the RB. Particularly if I am drafting in the middle and I do not like what is left to me.

VBD advantage (or ev) can come from any position. If I did pass on RB in one of the 1st 2 rounds (or both) Gore is a player I feel I can count on as my lead RB. While Gore may not be giving me a VBD advantage over the RB taken before him, I like his chances to break even with them often enough that my advantage at other positions can make up the difference.

I think you are stating your preference, to draft a RB earlier than Gore but that preference does not necessarily mean that drafting Gore as your 1st RB taken (after drafting some other positions) is going to bad for your team, or a bad idea.

I happen to think that the 49ers are going to run the ball more with Crabtree out. I expect them to lean heavily on Gore and Hunter. The 49ers in 2012 had 436pa and 492ra (94 by QB). In 2011 451pa and 498ra (52 from QB). So based on the last 2 years under Harbaugh, returning Oline, reduced passing options, I expect them to continue to run the ball around 500 times. 50-90 of those runs will be from the QB leaving 400-440 for the RB.

I have Gore getting 240-310ra 4.3-4.6ypc 1032-1426 yards 6-9TD 20-40 receptions 7.4-8.6ypc 148-296 yards1-3TD or 1080-1722 yards 7-12TD
I do agree that it comes down to your projections. If you have him doing better than I do, then we are just arguing on projections, which is a separate issue. At the projections I have Gore listed at, and the fact that I do not think he can help you wins games by himself (safe pick because he has a low floor, but has a low ceiling too), I would not take him as a number 1 rb for the reasons stated above.

While I think Gore is a zero ev play, there is also risk that he will not be a break even player--that has to be taken into account. This puts even more pressure on your first 2 rd picks.
This is the crux of the problem. I look at Gore and look at his VBD scores that he's already earned. Since becoming a starter, his annual VBD scores have been 111, 54, 41, 80, 22, 32, and 79. Yet you are assigning him an upside score of 0. Maybe we are arguing semantics, but that tells me that you are projecting him to perform significantly worse than he has the past 7 years. As I've already outlined, I don't think that is the case, and after the QB change last year Gore's fantasy scoring actually went up and stayed high in the NFL playoffs.

If you want to ignore that and project him to do significantly worse, that's your prerogative. But based on past performance, up until now he has not shown to have a negative EV. If you would rather draft for home runs instead of singles and doubles, that's also up to you. But I would argue that if you really drafted elite high end scorers at other positions (like Calvin and Rodgers in your earlier example), I would suggest you are better suited getting a consistent scorer at RB that risking shoot for the moon home run or strike out type back. I might fish for that later in the draft, but probably not in the 3rd or 4th round.
:goodposting:

Kaepernick took over in week 10 last season. For the last 8 games of the regular season and all 3 postseason games, he was the primary QB. Prior to that point, in the first 8 regular season games, Gore averaged 12.7 fppg (FBG scoring). In those 11 games with Kaepernick as the primary QB, Gore averaged 14.3 fppg. That pace over an entire regular season would yield 230 fantasy points. Last season, that would have placed him at RB6.

That is pretty strong upside, with as little downside as one can expect from an older veteran RB.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
Anarchy99 said:
silentcoach said:
Biabreakable said:
silentcoach said:
Anarchy99 said:
OK. I have to ask. For teams that did not take a RB in the first two rounds, if Gore IS NOT an appropriate RB to take as your RB1, who on earth would still be on the board that would be? Many leagues will still have 15 RB selected in the first 2 rounds.

I recently took Gore at 41 as my RB2 as the 20th back off the board in a 12 team redraft. I had no problem taking him there. I ended up with Spiller - Gore - Ball - Mendenhall - PThomas.
That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window
While I hear what you are saying and I agree in 2013 taking a RB in the 1st 2 picks is likely a good idea, there are players I will take over the RB. Particularly if I am drafting in the middle and I do not like what is left to me.

VBD advantage (or ev) can come from any position. If I did pass on RB in one of the 1st 2 rounds (or both) Gore is a player I feel I can count on as my lead RB. While Gore may not be giving me a VBD advantage over the RB taken before him, I like his chances to break even with them often enough that my advantage at other positions can make up the difference.

I think you are stating your preference, to draft a RB earlier than Gore but that preference does not necessarily mean that drafting Gore as your 1st RB taken (after drafting some other positions) is going to bad for your team, or a bad idea.

I happen to think that the 49ers are going to run the ball more with Crabtree out. I expect them to lean heavily on Gore and Hunter. The 49ers in 2012 had 436pa and 492ra (94 by QB). In 2011 451pa and 498ra (52 from QB). So based on the last 2 years under Harbaugh, returning Oline, reduced passing options, I expect them to continue to run the ball around 500 times. 50-90 of those runs will be from the QB leaving 400-440 for the RB.

I have Gore getting 240-310ra 4.3-4.6ypc 1032-1426 yards 6-9TD 20-40 receptions 7.4-8.6ypc 148-296 yards1-3TD or 1080-1722 yards 7-12TD
I do agree that it comes down to your projections. If you have him doing better than I do, then we are just arguing on projections, which is a separate issue. At the projections I have Gore listed at, and the fact that I do not think he can help you wins games by himself (safe pick because he has a low floor, but has a low ceiling too), I would not take him as a number 1 rb for the reasons stated above.

While I think Gore is a zero ev play, there is also risk that he will not be a break even player--that has to be taken into account. This puts even more pressure on your first 2 rd picks.
This is the crux of the problem. I look at Gore and look at his VBD scores that he's already earned. Since becoming a starter, his annual VBD scores have been 111, 54, 41, 80, 22, 32, and 79. Yet you are assigning him an upside score of 0. Maybe we are arguing semantics, but that tells me that you are projecting him to perform significantly worse than he has the past 7 years. As I've already outlined, I don't think that is the case, and after the QB change last year Gore's fantasy scoring actually went up and stayed high in the NFL playoffs.

If you want to ignore that and project him to do significantly worse, that's your prerogative. But based on past performance, up until now he has not shown to have a negative EV. If you would rather draft for home runs instead of singles and doubles, that's also up to you. But I would argue that if you really drafted elite high end scorers at other positions (like Calvin and Rodgers in your earlier example), I would suggest you are better suited getting a consistent scorer at RB that risking shoot for the moon home run or strike out type back. I might fish for that later in the draft, but probably not in the 3rd or 4th round.
My projections were 1100 yds 10 tds 20 rec 195 yds and 1 td.

Now, keep in mind, I am only referring to ppr leagues. Since Kaepernick took over Gore never had more than 3 receptions and he had less than 3 receptions 9 times (if you count the playoffs). That is 9/10 games with Kaepernick as the starter.

I caution the use of playoffs statistic because the coach has nothing to lose when Gore is playing in the playoffs.But let's look at the numbers.

Gore touched the ball 19 times rushing the ball all 3 times in the playoffs--100%. In the regular season this only happened 6/16 times 38% of the time. To me that looks like a coach that is maybe saving his rb for the playoffs.

For a rb that may not get lots of receptions and rushes the ball less than 19 times 62% of the time, that is a gamble as a number 1 rb (I already stated that he is an adequate number 2 rb)--ppr league.

Gamble in the sense that I do not see much upside with this pick given his current adp.

Of course I could be wrong, but what else am I supposed to go with?! :P

 
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Anarchy99

Footballguy
You still haven't answered my theoretical question . . . which is what RBs will still be available that will get the ball 20 times a game after 15-20 RBs have already been drafted, PPR or no PPR. Especially guys with any track record of success.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
You still haven't answered my theoretical question . . . which is what RBs will still be available that will get the ball 20 times a game after 15-20 RBs have already been drafted, PPR or no PPR. Especially guys with any track record of success.
I have; look above. But I will quote them for you in case you missed them.

That's the catch 22 with not going rb the first two rounds--you have to hit on the later rbs. Gore is safe and he will not lose you anything but he will not help you win anything. Therefore, the nonrbs you chose in the first 2 rounds have to be +ev picks by themselves, which adds or lessens pressure (however you want to think about it). PPR I prefer Sproles over Gore. L.Miller, Wilson, Bell have more of a shot to boom than gore (but also can bust), but what else did you expect when passing on rbs the first 2 rounds.

So, to answer your question, I would take Sproles (ppr)/Miller/Wilson/Bell over Gore if I passed on rbs the first 2 rds.

Gore is a great pick to pair with a solid #1 rb because his floor is low and you can maximize your ev with the number 1 rb you chose. Of course, if that number 1 rb you chose busts then all of the math is out of the window
If I am taking my first rb in the 3rd I am taking one that has a higher ceiling (and probably a lower floor too) but the average may be same--so, let's call it a higher variance pick...but that is the risk I accept when I pass on rbs in the first 2 rounds.

This kind of reminds me of Fred Taylor versus Forte in 2008 (in terms of ceiling).

Forte ADP 28 in 2008

Taylor ADP 30 in 2008

In 2007 FTaylor was a safe 1202 yards 5 tds 9 rec and 58 yards. He would have been fine, but he has a low ceiling (granted Gore has a higher ceiling than FTaylor but we're comparing two rbs that had roughly the same ADP).

Forte ended up with 1238 yds rushing 63 rec and 477 yards 12 total tds.

All that can be done is to analyze the rbs around and see who you have as higher ceilings and roll with it.

Of course, if you do not think you can identify a rb with a higher ceiling than Gore, then Gore is your guy.

I have already stated that Gore only ran the ball less than 19 times in the regular season 62% of the time (coach wanting to save him?) and that he did not catch much when Kapernick took over (although his ypc went up). These are MY reasons for suggesting Gore has a low ceiling. Of course I can be wrong. My job now is to look at other rbs to see what I can do if I pass on rb in the first 2 rds.

If you do not like the ceilings of Sproles, Miller, Wilson, Bell, McFadden, Murray, then I agree with you, and you go with Gore.as your number 1 rb if you passed on rb in the first 2 rounds. But don't pick him simply because he's safe. Where will you end up with a safe team across the board? Pick Gore because you think he can outperform his adp and will own the others rbs around this adp. If you reach these conclusions, then Gore is your guy, and rightly so.

I have nothing against Gore. I actually like him :) .

 
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Biabreakable

Footballguy
While it certainly could work out for you that Lamar Miller or David Wilson outperform Gore, I think you are taking on a lot of risk as these 2 RB do not have much of a track record.

Miller had 51ra 6 receptions. Wilson 71ra 4 receptions. Now press has all been good, definitely seems like they will be the starters, but what does that mean? Do you know how many carries and receptions they will get in 2013? Are you as confident in that as you are of Gore reaching his numbers?

Wilson has at least had explosive plays and scored TDs. Quite a few of them for so little carries. I think this is a good argument as Wilson does have high upside as well. At the same time with no track record, a history of time share for RB on the Giants, questions about who will be the 3rd down RB. There are reasons that Wilson may fall short of Gore, mainly the question of touches as I think the Giants offensive line is doing pretty well.

Sproles is nice cheese in PPR but he is not exactly a RB I would be taking with a lot of confidence as my 1st RB drafted. Not as much as Gore does.

Miller looks like he can be a feature RB and the team seems to think he will. But he only had 2 games with 10 rushing attempts. Against the Raiders and Buffalo. This seems like a huge gamble compared to what you know you are getting with Gore.

I like Bell with Steelers a lot also. But he is a rookie. That is without question a big risk with the reward being not as much upside as I am seeing for Gore.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
While it certainly could work out for you that Lamar Miller or David Wilson outperform Gore, I think you are taking on a lot of risk as these 2 RB do not have much of a track record.

Miller had 51ra 6 receptions. Wilson 71ra 4 receptions. Now press has all been good, definitely seems like they will be the starters, but what does that mean? Do you know how many carries and receptions they will get in 2013? Are you as confident in that as you are of Gore reaching his numbers?

Wilson has at least had explosive plays and scored TDs. Quite a few of them for so little carries. I think this is a good argument as Wilson does have high upside as well. At the same time with no track record, a history of time share for RB on the Giants, questions about who will be the 3rd down RB. There are reasons that Wilson may fall short of Gore, mainly the question of touches as I think the Giants offensive line is doing pretty well.

Sproles is nice cheese in PPR but he is not exactly a RB I would be taking with a lot of confidence as my 1st RB drafted. Not as much as Gore does.

Miller looks like he can be a feature RB and the team seems to think he will. But he only had 2 games with 10 rushing attempts. Against the Raiders and Buffalo. This seems like a huge gamble compared to what you know you are getting with Gore.

I like Bell with Steelers a lot also. But he is a rookie. That is without question a big risk with the reward being not as much upside as I am seeing for Gore.
Good post. I agree there is risk. That is what happens when we pass on early rbs--part of the the gamble, part of the fun!

Again, FTaylor v Forte. Sometimes you just go for it. Not for the faint of heart. There is always a Foster that blows up and a F.Jones that flops, and then D,Martin appears! Part of the gamble, agreed.

At this point it is a calculated risk you take based on what you think each rb is capable of doing.

The difference between you and I is that I see a safe, consistent pick in Gore but limited upside. We may be singing in unison If I thought Gore had a high upside.

Of course now you know Gore will blow up and be a top 6 rb after me calling him safe for like 25 times ;) :P

 
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Just Win Baby

Footballguy
The Gore Spotlight is now available. This caught my attention:

Last season, 14 of Gore's 38 targets came after Week 11, when Colin Kaepernick took over full time. So while it was his lowest total number of targets and second lowest total of catches, it did appear as if the trend was moving upwards.
This statement is false, at least according to FBG's own data. Gore had 24 targets in the 9 games prior to week 11. From week 11 on, including postseason, Gore had just 14 targets in 10 games.

Now, the article goes on to mention that Gore's targets could increase due to Crabtree's injury, and I agree that is possible. But the trend with Kaepernick in the passing game was certainly not positive for Gore. His rushing and overall fantasy production went up with Kaepernick, though, as already mentioned earlier in the thread.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
The Gore Spotlight is now available. This caught my attention:

Last season, 14 of Gore's 38 targets came after Week 11, when Colin Kaepernick took over full time. So while it was his lowest total number of targets and second lowest total of catches, it did appear as if the trend was moving upwards.
This statement is false, at least according to FBG's own data. Gore had 24 targets in the 9 games prior to week 11. From week 11 on, including postseason, Gore had just 14 targets in 10 games.

Now, the article goes on to mention that Gore's targets could increase due to Crabtree's injury, and I agree that is possible. But the trend with Kaepernick in the passing game was certainly not positive for Gore. His rushing and overall fantasy production went up with Kaepernick, though, as already mentioned earlier in the thread.
I've noticed that FBG doesn't have target stats for anyone for weeks 20 and 21. I've had to go to ESPN to get those numbers in the past.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
The Gore Spotlight is now available. This caught my attention:

Last season, 14 of Gore's 38 targets came after Week 11, when Colin Kaepernick took over full time. So while it was his lowest total number of targets and second lowest total of catches, it did appear as if the trend was moving upwards.
This statement is false, at least according to FBG's own data. Gore had 24 targets in the 9 games prior to week 11. From week 11 on, including postseason, Gore had just 14 targets in 10 games.

Now, the article goes on to mention that Gore's targets could increase due to Crabtree's injury, and I agree that is possible. But the trend with Kaepernick in the passing game was certainly not positive for Gore. His rushing and overall fantasy production went up with Kaepernick, though, as already mentioned earlier in the thread.
I don't remember Kaepernick throwing the ball to anyone besides Crabtree last year.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
The Gore Spotlight is now available. This caught my attention:

Last season, 14 of Gore's 38 targets came after Week 11, when Colin Kaepernick took over full time. So while it was his lowest total number of targets and second lowest total of catches, it did appear as if the trend was moving upwards.
This statement is false, at least according to FBG's own data. Gore had 24 targets in the 9 games prior to week 11. From week 11 on, including postseason, Gore had just 14 targets in 10 games.

Now, the article goes on to mention that Gore's targets could increase due to Crabtree's injury, and I agree that is possible. But the trend with Kaepernick in the passing game was certainly not positive for Gore. His rushing and overall fantasy production went up with Kaepernick, though, as already mentioned earlier in the thread.
I've noticed that FBG doesn't have target stats for anyone for weeks 20 and 21. I've had to go to ESPN to get those numbers in the past.
OK, even if we ignore the last two games, that's still 14 targets in 8 games, which is a lower pace than with Alex Smith and was not trending up.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
The Gore Spotlight is now available. This caught my attention:

Last season, 14 of Gore's 38 targets came after Week 11, when Colin Kaepernick took over full time. So while it was his lowest total number of targets and second lowest total of catches, it did appear as if the trend was moving upwards.
This statement is false, at least according to FBG's own data. Gore had 24 targets in the 9 games prior to week 11. From week 11 on, including postseason, Gore had just 14 targets in 10 games.

Now, the article goes on to mention that Gore's targets could increase due to Crabtree's injury, and I agree that is possible. But the trend with Kaepernick in the passing game was certainly not positive for Gore. His rushing and overall fantasy production went up with Kaepernick, though, as already mentioned earlier in the thread.
I've noticed that FBG doesn't have target stats for anyone for weeks 20 and 21. I've had to go to ESPN to get those numbers in the past.
OK, even if we ignore the last two games, that's still 14 targets in 8 games, which is a lower pace than with Alex Smith and was not trending up.
Just Win Baby said:
The Gore Spotlight is now available. This caught my attention:

Last season, 14 of Gore's 38 targets came after Week 11, when Colin Kaepernick took over full time. So while it was his lowest total number of targets and second lowest total of catches, it did appear as if the trend was moving upwards.
This statement is false, at least according to FBG's own data. Gore had 24 targets in the 9 games prior to week 11. From week 11 on, including postseason, Gore had just 14 targets in 10 games.

Now, the article goes on to mention that Gore's targets could increase due to Crabtree's injury, and I agree that is possible. But the trend with Kaepernick in the passing game was certainly not positive for Gore. His rushing and overall fantasy production went up with Kaepernick, though, as already mentioned earlier in the thread.
I've noticed that FBG doesn't have target stats for anyone for weeks 20 and 21. I've had to go to ESPN to get those numbers in the past.
OK, even if we ignore the last two games, that's still 14 targets in 8 games, which is a lower pace than with Alex Smith and was not trending up.
Oh yeah, I agree with you. I should've stated that, I guess. I just wanted to point out that about weeks 20 and 21 as an FYI.

 

FlapJacks

Footballguy
Good D and Kaep will make the offense more dynamic and effective.

If he can keep healthy he could have one more season of darn good production

 

Raider Nation

Devil's Advocate
Anyone thinking of trying to buy very (very, very) low on Gore? It's been ugly so far, and you're risking the chance that he's finally shot, but the schedule does have a lot of soft spots in the coming weeks. I'll probably feel out the 0-2 Gore owners to see what they would want in return.

 

Diamond

Footballguy
Gore was drafted as an RB2 or 3 in some cases. Why would his owners be 0-2?

2-0 here, for example, and not selling until I see if there are any holes vs Indy. There haven't been vs GB or SEA. Didn't expect that vs GB but he still managed a decent day. Especially considering what most other RBs were doing that week. SEA was expected. Have a feeling he's not the only RB Seattle will shut down at home. And hey, he did better than last year (30 total yds vs 28 total yds). :D

Seriously though, I'm much more concerned with the O-line than I am with Gore. Other than one run where Hunter got the corner in week 1, I haven't seen them open a hole for an RB. Thought they would be a dominant line, may need to rethink that.

Note that this was happening in the preseason as well. Other than Gore's first run in preseason week 2 which was a cutback/broken play that went 50 yards, the SF running game was pretty much shut down in each game (save for some Hampton 2nd half runs and the QB runs). It was mostly James doing the running then, and I put it on him. But perhaps I shouldn't have.

 
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