Player Spotlight: Hines Ward (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Hines Ward, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Page Link: Hines Ward Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Ward is both easy and difficult to project. On the easy side, his receptions vary less than a lot of other receivers. He seems to get his regardless of the Steelers' % of run to pass during the season. On the down side, his TD #s fluctuate, seemingly without rhyme or reason. In any given year, he can put up 12 TDs or 4. For the life of me, I can't find any indicators that would assist in predicting such.

Subsequently, I traditionally project him in between those numbers. Although your projection will rarely be dead-on, at least you minimize fluctuation between the projections and reality. Some years, he'll be drafted a little too high, some years a little too low. Such is the nature of the beast with Hines. His upside is not in the same league with the top 7-8 receivers, but he rarely drops balls, always gets a lot of targets as a result, and almost never sits a game out, so his downside is similarly limited.

86 rec. 1153 yds 8 TD

Slot him in that #9-14 range and you'll generally get about what you expect if you draft him where you believe he should go based on your projection.

 

[Bankerguy]

Ward is both easy and difficult to project.  On the easy side, his receptions vary less than a lot of other receivers.  He seems to get his regardless of the Steelers' % of run to pass during the season.  On the down side, his TD #s fluctuate, seemingly without rhyme or reason.  In any given year, he can put up 12 TDs or 4.  For the life of me, I can't find any indicators that would assist in predicting such.

Subsequently, I traditionally project him in between those numbers.  Although your projection will rarely be dead-on, at least you minimize fluctuation between the projections and reality.  Some years, he'll be drafted a little too high, some years a little too low.  Such is the nature of the beast with Hines.  His upside is not in the same league with the top 7-8 receivers, but he rarely drops balls, always gets a lot of targets as a result, and almost never sits a game out, so his downside is similarly limited.

86 rec.  1153 yds  8 TD

Slot him in that #9-14 range and you'll generally get about what you expect if you draft him where you believe he should go based on your projection.

It's hard to follow a post from a knowledgable homer. I think you are right on the money. Every fantasy team needs a Hines Ward, a guy you can count on consistently.85

1150

9

 

[joffer]

Slot him in that #9-14 range

interestingly enough, that's right about where Herman's WR matrix slots a go-to-guy on a run first team and an offense in the B-C range. I'm liking that thing more and more.The drop in receptions last year was a bit odd, but he's still a great red zone target and a guy you love to have on your fantasy team73/1054/9

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I think Ward has some things going in his favor this year that weren't last year:

1) He'll be at training camp. You'll recall he held out the first 15 days of training camp last year. That hurt his conditioning and probably his chemistry with Roethlisberger.

2) Uncertainty about the running game, particularly in short yardage/goalline situations. Willie Parker will be leaned on heavily this year. He has big play potential but often he'll gain little to no yardage leading to 2nd and 3rd down passing situations. Because the Steelers have no proven goalline runner they will likely pass more in the redzone. Ward was 2nd in the NFL last year with 13 redzone catches, expect him to have at least that many this year.

3) The evolution of Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers were last in the league in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. The Steelers will continue to be a run first team but they'll also give Roethlisberger more opportunities to shine. We saw it in the playoffs. Roethlisberger's emergence puts the Steelers offense on par with its' defense. They averaged 27 points a game in the playoffs, playing 3 of the top 4 defenses in the NFL. They should have more scoring opportunities this year than they did during Roethlisberger's previous two. Even a slight uptick in Steelers pass attempts and touchdowns will increase Ward's already solid numbers.

I think we'll see:

92 receptions

1250 yards

12 TD

 

[rvarnell]

Slot him in that #9-14 range

interestingly enough, that's right about where Herman's WR matrix slots a go-to-guy on a run first team and an offense in the B-C range. I'm liking that thing more and more.The drop in receptions last year was a bit odd, but he's still a great red zone target and a guy you love to have on your fantasy team

73/1054/9

What's Herman's WR matrix? Sorry if its well known, I've just discovered this board.

 

[Upchuck]

Herman's Matrix = see it under the Strategies section of FBG. Dated 7/7.

 

[Godsbrother]

I think Ward has some things going in his favor this year that weren't last year:

1) He'll be at training camp. You'll recall he held out the first 15 days of training camp last year. That hurt his conditioning and probably his chemistry with Roethlisberger.

2) Uncertaintly about the running game, particularly in short yardage/goalline situations. Willie Parker will be leaned on heavily this year. He has big play potential but often he'll gain little to no yardage leading to 2nd and 3rd down passing situations. Because the Steelers have no proven goalline runner they will likely pass more in the redzone. Ward was 2nd in the NFL last year with 13 redzone catches, expect him to have at least that many this year.

3) The evolution of Ben Roethlisberger. The Steelers were last in the league in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. The Steelers will continue to be a run first team but they'll also give Roethlisberger more opportunities to shine. We saw it in the playoffs. Roethlisberger's emergence puts the Steelers offense on par with its' defense. They averaged 27 points a game in the playoffs, playing 3 of the top 4 defenses in the NFL. They should have more scoring opportunities this year than they did during Roethlisberger's previous two. Even a slight uptick in Steelers pass attempts and touchdowns will increase Ward's already solid numbers.

I think we'll see:

92 receptions

1250 yards

12 TD

I agree with Frenchy. I fully expect the Steelers to open it up more, which should benefit Hines. The question is how much Heath Miller, Cedrick Wilson and Santonio Holmes suck up Ward's targets and TDs.

 

[msommer]

76/1028/9

Right between his 2004 and 2005 numbers would have been had he played 16 games

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I think Ward has some things going in his favor this year that weren't last year:

1) He'll be at training camp.  You'll recall he held out the first 15 days of training camp last year.  That hurt his conditioning and probably his chemistry with Roethlisberger. 

2) Uncertaintly about the running game, particularly in short yardage/goalline situations. Willie Parker will be leaned on heavily this year.  He has big play potential but often he'll gain little to no yardage leading to 2nd and 3rd down passing situations. Because the Steelers have no proven goalline runner they will likely pass more in the redzone.  Ward was 2nd in the NFL last year with 13 redzone catches, expect him to have at least that many this year.

3) The evolution of Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers were last in the league in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. The Steelers will continue to be a run first team but they'll also give Roethlisberger more opportunities to shine.  We saw it in the playoffs.  Roethlisberger's emergence puts the Steelers offense on par with its' defense.  They averaged 27 points a game in the playoffs, playing 3 of the top 4 defenses in the NFL.  They should have more scoring opportunities this year than they did during Roethlisberger's previous two.  Even a slight uptick in Steelers pass attempts and touchdowns will increase Ward's already solid numbers. 

I think we'll see:

92 receptions

1250 yards

12 TD

I agree with Frenchy. I fully expect the Steelers to open it up more, which should benefit Hines. The question is how much Heath Miller, Cedrick Wilson and Santonio Holmes suck up Ward's targets and TDs.

I think Hines' target % as compared to the rest of the offensive players will remain relatively static.I don't see the Steelers opening up the offense nearly as much this year as some do. Traditionally, they only do so out of necessity, not design. It concerns me that you guys expect to see a more wide-open offense, because to me that signals an inability to run the ball. Please tell me you're not predicting that, because you both know I respect your opinions highly.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I think Ward has some things going in his favor this year that weren't last year:

1) He'll be at training camp.  You'll recall he held out the first 15 days of training camp last year.  That hurt his conditioning and probably his chemistry with Roethlisberger. 

2) Uncertaintly about the running game, particularly in short yardage/goalline situations. Willie Parker will be leaned on heavily this year.  He has big play potential but often he'll gain little to no yardage leading to 2nd and 3rd down passing situations. Because the Steelers have no proven goalline runner they will likely pass more in the redzone.  Ward was 2nd in the NFL last year with 13 redzone catches, expect him to have at least that many this year.

3) The evolution of Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers were last in the league in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. The Steelers will continue to be a run first team but they'll also give Roethlisberger more opportunities to shine.  We saw it in the playoffs.  Roethlisberger's emergence puts the Steelers offense on par with its' defense.  They averaged 27 points a game in the playoffs, playing 3 of the top 4 defenses in the NFL.  They should have more scoring opportunities this year than they did during Roethlisberger's previous two.  Even a slight uptick in Steelers pass attempts and touchdowns will increase Ward's already solid numbers. 

I think we'll see:

92 receptions

1250 yards

12 TD

I agree with Frenchy. I fully expect the Steelers to open it up more, which should benefit Hines. The question is how much Heath Miller, Cedrick Wilson and Santonio Holmes suck up Ward's targets and TDs.

I think Hines' target % as compared to the rest of the offensive players will remain relatively static.I don't see the Steelers opening up the offense nearly as much this year as some do. Traditionally, they only do so out of necessity, not design. It concerns me that you guys expect to see a more wide-open offense, because to me that signals an inability to run the ball. Please tell me you're not predicting that, because you both know I respect your opinions highly.

Grin- I don't think we are headed for the Air Cowher of 2002-2003 but I think we're likely to see significantly more pass attempts this year over the previous two. The Steelers averaged 368 pass attempts the past two seasons (with Ben) as opposed to 542 pass attempts from 2002-2003. I think this season will fall somewhere in the low to mid 400s. Still at 450 pass attempts that's only 28 per game.I am going to sound like a homer and probably hijacking Woodrow's thread but I look at this as a positive. I think the Steelers offense has the potential to be as good as it's been since the 79 Steelers. Think about the Qbs Cowher has used and I think it's easy to see why we've had to be a dominant run team. But a good passing game will open lanes for Willie Parker and a good dose of Fast Willie will create single coverage for the WRs. Great offenses are usually balanced. As good as the Steelers have been the past two years they've relied on their running game heavily. That changed a little bit in the playoffs. This offense has the ability to put up more points and sustain drives better, and stay on the field longer than the previous Roethlisberger Os. I expect them to be in the top 5-10 offenses in the league if their core players are healthy. I'll even go out on a limb and say that I think the O could be better than the D this year.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

I think Ward has some things going in his favor this year that weren't last year:

1) He'll be at training camp.  You'll recall he held out the first 15 days of training camp last year.  That hurt his conditioning and probably his chemistry with Roethlisberger. 

2) Uncertaintly about the running game, particularly in short yardage/goalline situations. Willie Parker will be leaned on heavily this year.  He has big play potential but often he'll gain little to no yardage leading to 2nd and 3rd down passing situations. Because the Steelers have no proven goalline runner they will likely pass more in the redzone.  Ward was 2nd in the NFL last year with 13 redzone catches, expect him to have at least that many this year.

3) The evolution of Ben Roethlisberger.  The Steelers were last in the league in pass attempts the past 2 seasons. The Steelers will continue to be a run first team but they'll also give Roethlisberger more opportunities to shine.  We saw it in the playoffs.  Roethlisberger's emergence puts the Steelers offense on par with its' defense.  They averaged 27 points a game in the playoffs, playing 3 of the top 4 defenses in the NFL.  They should have more scoring opportunities this year than they did during Roethlisberger's previous two.  Even a slight uptick in Steelers pass attempts and touchdowns will increase Ward's already solid numbers. 

I think we'll see:

92 receptions

1250 yards

12 TD

I agree with Frenchy. I fully expect the Steelers to open it up more, which should benefit Hines. The question is how much Heath Miller, Cedrick Wilson and Santonio Holmes suck up Ward's targets and TDs.

I think Hines' target % as compared to the rest of the offensive players will remain relatively static.I don't see the Steelers opening up the offense nearly as much this year as some do. Traditionally, they only do so out of necessity, not design. It concerns me that you guys expect to see a more wide-open offense, because to me that signals an inability to run the ball. Please tell me you're not predicting that, because you both know I respect your opinions highly.

Grin- I don't think we are headed for the Air Cowher of 2002-2003 but I think we're likely to see significantly more pass attempts this year over the previous two. The Steelers averaged 368 pass attempts the past two seasons (with Ben) as opposed to 542 pass attempts from 2002-2003. I think this season will fall somewhere in the low to mid 400s. Still at 450 pass attempts that's only 28 per game.I am going to sound like a homer and probably hijacking Woodrow's thread but I look at this as a positive. I think the Steelers offense has the potential to be as good as it's been since the 79 Steelers. Think about the Qbs Cowher has used and I think it's easy to see why we've had to be a dominant run team. But a good passing game will open lanes for Willie Parker and a good dose of Fast Willie will create single coverage for the WRs. Great offenses are usually balanced. As good as the Steelers have been the past two years they've relied on their running game heavily. That changed a little bit in the playoffs. This offense has the ability to put up more points and sustain drives better, and stay on the field longer than the previous Roethlisberger Os. I expect them to be in the top 5-10 offenses in the league if their core players are healthy. I'll even go out on a limb and say that I think the O could be better than the D this year.

OK, I feel better now. I still see a much higher run/pass split because I think a lot of games are going to be similar to last year, where the Steelers get an early lead and then run, run, run. It just plain works for them, and while Staley is not as effective as Bettis at the goal line, he's actually MORE effective as a drive-sustaining back and on 3rd and short conversions.

 

[matt jones]

78 rec 830 yards 5 TD's

 

[Evilgrin 72]

78 rec 830 yards 5 TD's

Are you projecting Ward's stats, or your own, Matt?

 

[Power Monster]

90 recs

1000 yds

11 TDs

FWP has to prove he can toe the line and if Duece cannot stay healthy all year and be a consistent red zone threat I like Hines and the other receivers to excel. Hines can pull down the tough passes in traffic in the red zone. I expect some big things from the Steelers passing "O" this year...

 

[-OZ-]

78 rec 830 yards 5 TD's

Injury in week 10?90 receptions, 1200 yards, 13 TDs

Pretty much in line with Frenchy's projection, his post hits all my thoughts, except to add that I see Heath Miller as a prime red zone threat, taking some pressure and opportunity away from Ward.

 

[Bankerguy]

78 rec 830 yards 5 TD's

Injury in week 10?90 receptions, 1200 yards, 13 TDs

Pretty much in line with Frenchy's projection, his post hits all my thoughts, except to add that I see Heath Miller as a prime red zone threat, taking some pressure and opportunity away from Ward.

Yet he still scores 13 TD's?

 

[-OZ-]

78 rec 830 yards 5 TD's

Injury in week 10?90 receptions, 1200 yards, 13 TDs

Pretty much in line with Frenchy's projection, his post hits all my thoughts, except to add that I see Heath Miller as a prime red zone threat, taking some pressure and opportunity away from Ward.

Yet he still scores 13 TD's?

 

[Musesboy]

Hines Ward has seen a decline in his reception totals for the last four seasons, but not because of any deterioration in his ability. The Steelers have been able to win games by running the football and playing well on defense. Ward failed to reach 1000 yards for the first time in five years and only had 69 receptions last year, but he did score 11 times.

I expect that to change a little this year. The running game will be weakened by the loss of Jerome Bettis and the team will have to find other ways to score in the red zone. Ben Roethlisberger will be entering his third season as the starter and should be fully comfortable in any situation that presents itself.

Antwaan Randle El is now with the Washington Redskins, leaving rookie Santonio Holmes and Cedrick Wilson as the other main targets. I believe that will lead to a significant increase in targets for Ward. Roethlisberger is an efficient quarterback that may be extended more this year with the tough schedule that the Steelers appear to have.

Prediction

91 receptions 1100 yards 10 TDs

 

[fruity pebbles]

78 1080 9 TDs

 

[rzrback77]

I am going to go against the grain for a lot of these Hines Ward projections. I do not see the Pittsburg rushing numbers decreasing, I see them increasing. I think that the willingness to open up the passing game seen in the playoffs last year will affectively improve the running game, especially for Fast Willie Parker.

I do not believe that the passing totals however will rise more than 10% over a year ago and the Steelers will stay focused on ball control with running the football priority #1.

The consistency spoken of in prior posts is only on an annual basis. Last year he had seven games with less than four receptions and in all seven of those games, he had under fifty yards. He also racked up over eighty yards seven times, including three two-touchdown games. Lots of feast or famine weeks, which are kind of scary for a WR1.

I also think that if Santonio Holmes gets his act together, he will be an adequate rookie WR and added to Cedrick WIlson, I see the WRs improved for 06 over a season ago. I think that Ward will be able to get open easier and more often than a year ago.

If this post seems up and down, that's because that's how I'm thinking. Hines Ward has also gone from 112 catcches to 95 to 80 and down to 69 in 05. A liitle scary, but I see some improvement.

75 catches for 1050 yards and 8 TDs.

 

[mlball77]

The involvement of Wilson and Holmes are the two main things I am still uncertain about when making projections for Ward. With all of the nonsense going on with Holmes I am tempted to bump my projections for Ward and Wilson up a bit, but its still too early to make that determination.

Either way, I think Ward has another very productive season.

Recs: 77

Rec Yds: 1050

Rec TDs: 9

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Ward is both easy and difficult to project. On the easy side, his receptions vary less than a lot of other receivers. He seems to get his regardless of the Steelers' % of run to pass during the season. On the down side, his TD #s fluctuate, seemingly without rhyme or reason. In any given year, he can put up 12 TDs or 4. For the life of me, I can't find any indicators that would assist in predicting such.

Subsequently, I traditionally project him in between those numbers. Although your projection will rarely be dead-on, at least you minimize fluctuation between the projections and reality. Some years, he'll be drafted a little too high, some years a little too low. Such is the nature of the beast with Hines. His upside is not in the same league with the top 7-8 receivers, but he rarely drops balls, always gets a lot of targets as a result, and almost never sits a game out, so his downside is similarly limited.

86 rec. 1153 yds 8 TD

Slot him in that #9-14 range and you'll generally get about what you expect if you draft him where you believe he should go based on your projection.

I also agree with rzrback77's post though I see about the same run/pass ratio not a drop. Just because Pittsburgh may have the ability to open up the offense and let Ben throw more does not mean they will do so. If they do, it is due to an ineffective ground game or because they are behind and forced to IMHO. This team is built on a solid running game and an attacking defense and the lone time they went away from it in recent memory, it didn't work out so well. Ward is in a tier of WR's that currently has an ADP of round 3 somewhere. As I posted in JJ's spotlight, this coincides with a group of higher risk, IMHO, RB's current ADP's. I believe that the WR's are far less risky than those RB's and should be the choice if those are the "in play" options you have at your draft. Ward is likely tiered with Roy, Chambers, DJax, Wayne... He seems to get his receptions regardless as some have pointed out, but they have dropped every year for the last 4 years coupled with Pittsburgh winning games and a Super Bowl does raise a flag--defense and running game = winning, then Hines ceiling is very limited and his floor goes down a little too. Only Wayne has a comparable floor IMHO, but many in that tier have higher ceilings. What you peg for his TD's will be the crucial stat here. I could easily see 10, but I could also see 5, so I'm playing the middle ground and being aware of both my floor and my ceiling.

79 catches, 1085 yards, 7 TD's

 

[mbuehner]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward: 219,182,175

Chambers: 187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

 

[Bankerguy]

78 rec 830 yards 5 TD's

Injury in week 10?90 receptions, 1200 yards, 13 TDs

Pretty much in line with Frenchy's projection, his post hits all my thoughts, except to add that I see Heath Miller as a prime red zone threat, taking some pressure and opportunity away from Ward.

Yet he still scores 13 TD's?

Great thanks for clarifying.

 

[Musesboy]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward: 219,182,175

Chambers: 187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

Ward continues to amaze me by finding ways to be productive despite the reduction in his targets.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward: 219,182,175

Chambers: 187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

With a questionable red zone running game like you predict, won't defenses figure this out too and key in on Ward? He would have to be the first option, wouldn't he? As a defense then, wouldn't you try and take Ward away? I can see some of the other receivers benefitting more than Ward. The Steelers can't afford to be passing all the time down in the redzone or their whole team identity changes--they are a power running team and are really successful with it. The Steeler's knew that Bettis was gone after last year, so they must have had a plan to keep their offensive philosophy in place. Maybe it's Staley, maybe Ben will run some QB keepers--I still think it is quite possible they will land another RB somehow--maybe Duckett. Holmes will barely be a factor this year IMHO. I just don't see them straying very far from what has consistently worked in the past and thus Ward's ceiling is limited. I also believe that what he did in the past is no predictor of the future, especially as it relates to TD's.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward:  219,182,175

Chambers:  187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

With a questionable red zone running game like you predict, won't defenses figure this out too and key in on Ward? He would have to be the first option, wouldn't he? As a defense then, wouldn't you try and take Ward away? I can see some of the other receivers benefitting more than Ward. The Steelers can't afford to be passing all the time down in the redzone or their whole team identity changes--they are a power running team and are really successful with it. The Steeler's knew that Bettis was gone after last year, so they must have had a plan to keep their offensive philosophy in place. Maybe it's Staley, maybe Ben will run some QB keepers--I still think it is quite possible they will land another RB somehow--maybe Duckett. Holmes will barely be a factor this year IMHO. I just don't see them straying very far from what has consistently worked in the past and thus Ward's ceiling is limited. I also believe that what he did in the past is no predictor of the future, especially as it relates to TD's.

No way is Ward the first option at the goal line if the RBs struggle. Heath Miller and/or Roethlisberger will be. The Steelers absolutely LOVE to fake the ball up the middle and then send the QB out on a bootleg. It almost always leaves the TE standing alone in the back of the end zone, they have used this with success time and again. If teams pick up on it and start sending their outside guys back into coverage on Miller, Roethlisberger will simply run behind the pulling OL.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward: 219,182,175

Chambers: 187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

With a questionable red zone running game like you predict, won't defenses figure this out too and key in on Ward? He would have to be the first option, wouldn't he? As a defense then, wouldn't you try and take Ward away? I can see some of the other receivers benefitting more than Ward. The Steelers can't afford to be passing all the time down in the redzone or their whole team identity changes--they are a power running team and are really successful with it. The Steeler's knew that Bettis was gone after last year, so they must have had a plan to keep their offensive philosophy in place. Maybe it's Staley, maybe Ben will run some QB keepers--I still think it is quite possible they will land another RB somehow--maybe Duckett. Holmes will barely be a factor this year IMHO. I just don't see them straying very far from what has consistently worked in the past and thus Ward's ceiling is limited. I also believe that what he did in the past is no predictor of the future, especially as it relates to TD's.

No way is Ward the first option at the goal line if the RBs struggle. Heath Miller and/or Roethlisberger will be. The Steelers absolutely LOVE to fake the ball up the middle and then send the QB out on a bootleg. It almost always leaves the TE standing alone in the back of the end zone, they have used this with success time and again. If teams pick up on it and start sending their outside guys back into coverage on Miller, Roethlisberger will simply run behind the pulling OL.

That is where I was going with my questions Evilgrin. I think many others will see the benefits of this before Ward will.

 

[Evilgrin 72]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward:  219,182,175

Chambers:  187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

With a questionable red zone running game like you predict, won't defenses figure this out too and key in on Ward? He would have to be the first option, wouldn't he? As a defense then, wouldn't you try and take Ward away? I can see some of the other receivers benefitting more than Ward. The Steelers can't afford to be passing all the time down in the redzone or their whole team identity changes--they are a power running team and are really successful with it. The Steeler's knew that Bettis was gone after last year, so they must have had a plan to keep their offensive philosophy in place. Maybe it's Staley, maybe Ben will run some QB keepers--I still think it is quite possible they will land another RB somehow--maybe Duckett. Holmes will barely be a factor this year IMHO. I just don't see them straying very far from what has consistently worked in the past and thus Ward's ceiling is limited. I also believe that what he did in the past is no predictor of the future, especially as it relates to TD's.

No way is Ward the first option at the goal line if the RBs struggle. Heath Miller and/or Roethlisberger will be. The Steelers absolutely LOVE to fake the ball up the middle and then send the QB out on a bootleg. It almost always leaves the TE standing alone in the back of the end zone, they have used this with success time and again. If teams pick up on it and start sending their outside guys back into coverage on Miller, Roethlisberger will simply run behind the pulling OL.

That is where I was going with my questions Evilgrin. I think many others will see the benefits of this before Ward will.

Absolutely. This is not to say that Ward won't get ANY goal line love, he will. In fact, aside from Randy Moss, I'd bet he gets about as many looks inside the opponents 5 than just about anyone. I'm sure the Data Dominator can tell us that. However, from a guy who hasn't missed a Steelers game in eons, I would bet he only gets about 2-3 TDs a year in such situations, and I don't really see that number blowing up significantly. I can't imagine a receiver who isn't used like Moss was (on quick fades to the back corners and especially on jump-ball plays) getting enough short-yardage TDs to change a projection.They key to it is that the running game doesn't COMPLETELY fold at the stripe because the effectiveness of these bootleg plays is heavily predicated on the inside run threat, obviously. If teams no longer send 9-10 guys up the middle to stop that hammer, the bootleg plays won't result in easy TDs any more. However, the dropoff from Bettis to Staley/Haynes/Humes will be smaller than some might think, IMO. Enough to get Miller a few extra looks, but that might be it.

 

[mbuehner]

I also believe that what he did in the past is no predictor of the future, especially as it relates to TD's.

Then we need to get out of this business Ward scored 11 TDs last season, 2 of which were inside the opponents 5 yardline, and 9 of which were in the redzone. The Bettis effect, as I see it, will not just be felt inside the 5. If the Steelers short yardage game isnt up to their standards and they find themselves settling for a lot of short field goals, they will almost certainly take a few more shots at the endzone as they move inside the 20.I have Ward at 12 TDs this season, one more than last year. Ward has scored double digit TDs 3 out of the last 4 seasons. With Roethlisberger improving and the Steelers relying even slightly more on their passing game, 12 doesnt seem all that outrageous to me.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Hines Ward is going to be undervalued in a lot of drafts. The best way to evaluate him is by comparing him to his tier, which I define as Chambers(ADP WR9), Wayne(ADP WR10),D-Jackson(ADP WR12), and Driver (ADP WR17). All these guys are going to be between 28 and 31 years old this season- somewhere between the prime of their careers and the traditionally downward slope.

I looked at the best 3 seasons each of these guys has ever had, and Ward wins that hands down:

FPs:

Ward: 219,182,175

Chambers: 187,165,139

Wayne: 193,136,126

D-Jax: 168,162, 157

Driver:175,163,157

All things being equal, Ward easily has the best upside of the group. He has simply performed a step higher than the rest of the list across his career.

This season Chambers will see a big upgrade, Wayne is likely to see a more dynamic passing game than usual (but not near the record breaking Manning season that gets him mentioned in this group), Driver is the only game in his town, and D-Jax looked like he stepped his game up last season when available.

That being said, Ward put up 165 fantasy points last season under more constraints than he will see this year. Randle El is gone and replaced by a rookie with off the field issues but enough speed to keep defenders worried. Roethlisberger has played less than 2 seasons and seems certain to improve- and the recievers he has developed chemistry with will benefit from that. And of course the discussion of any Steeler offensive player must include the fact that Bettis and his 9 goalline TDs from last season will need to be replaced somehow. There are big question marks in the Steeler short yardage running game, so when in doubt in the red-zone, who better to turn to than your rock solid veteran WR?

My read is that Ward has the highest proven upside and the lowest odds of busting of the group. His name is going to get overlooked in a lot of drafts, so his value will be excellent:

Receptions: 81

Recieving Yards:1110

TDs: 12

I also believe that what he did in the past is no predictor of the future, especially as it relates to TD's.

Then we need to get out of this business Ward scored 11 TDs last season, 2 of which were inside the opponents 5 yardline, and 9 of which were in the redzone. The Bettis effect, as I see it, will not just be felt inside the 5. If the Steelers short yardage game isnt up to their standards and they find themselves settling for a lot of short field goals, they will almost certainly take a few more shots at the endzone as they move inside the 20.

I have Ward at 12 TDs this season, one more than last year. Ward has scored double digit TDs 3 out of the last 4 seasons. With Roethlisberger improving and the Steelers relying even slightly more on their passing game, 12 doesnt seem all that outrageous to me.

Fair enuf. 8 of Ward's TD's came in only 5 games and he had another 5 where he got less than 4 total points. TD's seem to have no ryhme or reason to them with Ward. I'd feel alot safer predicting 7-9 TD's. Your projections are his absolute ceiling IMHO and put him almost a top 5 WR via FBG projections. His only other top 5 finish was 2002 when only 4 receivers in the league cracked 10 TD's which is historically low for recent times (2005-8, 2004-11, 2003-9, 2002-4). He seems to fit better in the 8-12 type range with a little upside IMHO.

 

[mbuehner]

I'd feel alot safer predicting 7-9 TD's.

The question then becomes, who is going to score Pitts passing TDs? In 04 the Steelers passed for 20 tds, and in 05 they passed for 21. Roth should very likely improve on that. Unless you have a lot of faith in Holmes, I just dont see any way around Ward putting up at least 10. Is Heath Miller going to score 10 tds to make up the deficit (he scored 6 last year)?The only scenarios i can see where Ward scores less than 10 TDs that I can think of would be:

-Another WR steps up huge.

-Heath Miller steps up really huge. Number 1 TE huge.

-Pitt changes their offensive philosophy radically and throws to its backs/WR3/WR4 a whole lot more

-Pitts passing game totally fizzles

 

[Cool in the pocket]

I'd feel alot safer predicting 7-9 TD's.

The question then becomes, who is going to score Pitts passing TDs? In 04 the Steelers passed for 20 tds, and in 05 they passed for 21. Roth should very likely improve on that. Unless you have a lot of faith in Holmes, I just dont see any way around Ward putting up at least 10. Is Heath Miller going to score 10 tds to make up the deficit (he scored 6 last year)?The only scenarios i can see where Ward scores less than 10 TDs that I can think of would be:

-Another WR steps up huge.

-Heath Miller steps up really huge. Number 1 TE huge.

-Pitt changes their offensive philosophy radically and throws to its backs/WR3/WR4 a whole lot more

-Pitts passing game totally fizzles

Ben only threw 17 TD's in each of the last 2 seasons, so it depends on how many you are pegging him for. Say he jumps up to 20-22 which is a approx a 25% increase. Ward gets 7 like I predict, maybe Miller gets 7 (one more than last year)--that leaves 6-8 to be broken amongst Wilson, Holmes, Kreider, Parker, Morgan... which is only 1 or 2 per player. I can personally see Wilson getting 3 or 4 alone and Parker getting 1 or 2 on screens or passes in the flat. I think Ben eats up some of the Bettis TD's plus some other's through the ground and the passing remains close to the same.

 

[mbuehner]

Ben only threw 17 TD's in each of the last 2 seasons, so it depends on how many you are pegging him for

In 13 and 12 starts.

Say he jumps up to 20-22 which is a approx a 25% increase.

21 passing TDS seems like the floor for the Steelers to me, you arent taking a full seasons output into account. Bens career average thus far is 1.3 TDs per game. Even if he doesnt improve a lick and plays 16 games thats 21 tds. Assumedly even if Ben doesnt play every game they will start someone else at QB with the potential to throw a few.

Ward gets 7 like I predict, maybe Miller gets 7 (one more than last year)--that leaves 6-8 to be broken amongst Wilson, Holmes, Kreider, Parker, Morgan

You are kind of assuming the perfect storm again Ward I think. For Miller to score as many TDs as Ward seems unlikely- Ward was targetted 24 times in the red zone to Millers 11 last season. The kids got a great future but you are projecting him up into the top 5 of TEs. Last year Ward+Miller scored 17 TDs, everyone else scored 4.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Ben only threw 17 TD's in each of the last 2 seasons, so it depends on how many you are pegging him for

In 13 and 12 starts.

Say he jumps up to 20-22 which is a approx a 25% increase.

21 passing TDS seems like the floor for the Steelers to me, you arent taking a full seasons output into account. Bens career average thus far is 1.3 TDs per game. Even if he doesnt improve a lick and plays 16 games thats 21 tds. Assumedly even if Ben doesnt play every game they will start someone else at QB with the potential to throw a few.

Ward gets 7 like I predict, maybe Miller gets 7 (one more than last year)--that leaves 6-8 to be broken amongst Wilson, Holmes, Kreider, Parker, Morgan

You are kind of assuming the perfect storm again Ward I think. For Miller to score as many TDs as Ward seems unlikely- Ward was targetted 24 times in the red zone to Millers 11 last season. The kids got a great future but you are projecting him up into the top 5 of TEs.

Last year Ward+Miller scored 17 TDs, everyone else scored 4.

We'll just have to agree to disagree and that's cool with me. Ben has missed time in both years, so suggesting he'll play 16 is a bit of a stretch already. His motorcycle accident has already dinged him up a bit though he will likely be fine for the opener. Randle El isn't around to account for a TD here and there through the air. 21 TD's (Kordell Stewart) is the most any QB has thrown for during the Cowher era, 1992-present, so anything over is going into new ground. I actually have Miller at less (6 TD's), but with nice upside if you go to his thread. I disagree with the notion that if Ben doesn't play that the backup will come in and chuck a few--Batch will manage the game at best and the opposition will get an even heavier dose or running and defense. Unless something forces the Steelers out of their past offensive philosophy, I don't see any reason why they would change and that means marginal, at best, improvement for the passing game.

 

[Phlash]

83/1074/6

 

[wannabee]

Is anyone scared that Hines has not practiced in pads for 2 weeks due to a hammy injury?

 

[wannabee]

I anyone scared that Hines has not practiced in pads for 2 weeks due to a hammy injury?

Hines Ward still stuck on sidelines Published Thu Aug 17 2:55:00 p.m. ET 2006

(Rotoworld) Hines Ward (hamstring) will miss Saturday's preseason game against the Vikings.

Impact: There's still no word on when Ward will return to contact drills. "With a hamstring, you just never know," Ward said. "There is no timetable with a hamstring." Although Pittsburgh is being cautious with their All-Pro receiver, he'll likely be ready for week one against Miami.

 

[zamboni]

I anyone scared that Hines has not practiced in pads for 2 weeks due to a hammy injury?

Hines Ward still stuck on sidelines Published Thu Aug 17 2:55:00 p.m. ET 2006

(Rotoworld) Hines Ward (hamstring) will miss Saturday's preseason game against the Vikings.

Impact: There's still no word on when Ward will return to contact drills. "With a hamstring, you just never know," Ward said. "There is no timetable with a hamstring." Although Pittsburgh is being cautious with their All-Pro receiver, he'll likely be ready for week one against Miami.

Normally I wouldn't be that concerned given that Hines is as tough as nails, but we've seen these hammy issues linger before. See Horn, Joe.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I think what we've seen with Cowher is that he errs on the side of caution in training camp: Porter, Ward, etc. These are vets that don't necessarily need the reps that the young guys do. If Ward is still having hammy problems the week of the Miami game I'd be a bit more worried. For now I would take any discount I could get on drafting Ward. He has proven his mettle, missing 1 game in 8 years.

 

[wannabee]

Steelers | Ward sits out Tuesday

Published Wed Aug 23 1:56:00 a.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) The Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward (hamstring) did not practice Tuesday, Aug. 22. There is a strong chance he will not play until the regular-season opener. He tried to practice Tuesday, but removed his pads after running a few routes. Ward said he would not play in the final two preseason games if he can not practice Wednesday, Aug. 23. Ward added Steelers athletic trainer John Norwig called the Carolina Panthers to see how the team is treating WR Steve Smith's (hamstring) injury.

 

[wannabee]

Steelers | Ward injury update

Published Wed Aug 23 12:57:00 p.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) Joe Starkey, of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, reports Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward (hamstring) will likely sit out the rest of the preseason, although head coach Bill Cowher believes Ward will be close to 100 percent for the season opener.

 

[zamboni]

Steelers | Ward injury update Published Wed Aug 23 12:57:00 p.m. ET 2006 (KFFL) Joe Starkey, of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, reports Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward (hamstring) will likely sit out the rest of the preseason, although head coach Bill Cowher believes Ward will be close to 100 percent for the season opener.

I'm not going to debate the semantics of "close to 100 percent", but it's definitely getting more concerning. While he'll surely play in week 1, I'd be concerned about him possibly aggravating the hammy.

 

[-OZ-]

Steelers | Ward injury update Published Wed Aug 23 12:57:00 p.m. ET 2006 (KFFL) Joe Starkey, of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, reports Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward (hamstring) will likely sit out the rest of the preseason, although head coach Bill Cowher believes Ward will be close to 100 percent for the season opener.

Do you think it matters?As long as he's around the clubhouse, Cowher is smart to play others and let Ward rest.

 

[wannabee]

Steelers | Ward injury update Published Wed Aug 23 12:57:00 p.m. ET 2006 (KFFL) Joe Starkey, of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, reports Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward (hamstring) will likely sit out the rest of the preseason, although head coach Bill Cowher believes Ward will be close to 100 percent for the season opener.

Do you think it matters?As long as he's around the clubhouse, Cowher is smart to play others and let Ward rest.

I agree. But, the issue is that he has not even practiced (in pads with hitting) in a long while. That is why I keep updating the thread, so people who care will know.

 

[Sonny Lubick Blowup Doll]

Steelers | Ward injury update Published Wed Aug 23 12:57:00 p.m. ET 2006 (KFFL) Joe Starkey, of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, reports Pittsburgh Steelers WR Hines Ward (hamstring) will likely sit out the rest of the preseason, although head coach Bill Cowher believes Ward will be close to 100 percent for the season opener.

Do you think it matters?As long as he's around the clubhouse, Cowher is smart to play others and let Ward rest.

I agree. But, the issue is that he has not even practiced (in pads with hitting) in a long while. That is why I keep updating the thread, so people who care will know.

 

[AnonymousBob]

The head coach is now saying Ward won't be 100% for the opener? :BumpsWarddowndraftsheet: