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Player Spotlight: Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jake Locker, QB, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Jake Locker Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

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  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

Sinn Fein

Footballguy
Locker may be improved as an NFL QB - but his numbers are not likely to show it. Based on 2013 passing-yards-against, he faces the number 1,2,3,4,5,6 ranked defenses next year, and the worst defense he gets to face will be Jacksonville - at #22. So no bottom feeders to help bolster his stats.

His 1st half schedule is particularly brutal - opening @Pitt (1) and @ Hou (16), with games against SD (18), NYJ ( 2, albeit without Revis), KC (12), @Sea (6), and SF (4)

After the bye, he has a decent stretch: Stl (15), Jax (22), Indy (21), Oak (20) and Indy (21) - I could see him as a useful fill-in during this stretch, assuming he stays healthy.

But then weeks 14 and 15: @Denver (3), and Arizona (5) - Just can't see those as the playoff match-ups you want to see in fantasy.

Locker gets a little bump based on his running ability, but that also carries an increased injury risk, which may negate the rushing points.

I still like his long-term potential - but this season is going to be a test for him and the Titans' patience with him - he may struggle based on opponents and not necessarily based on his own skill level.

 

Sinn Fein

Footballguy
Benched or injured by week 5. He is a terrible QB.
I think you are selling Locker short here. He does have to prove himself healthy - but, his age 24 season was better than Brees' age 24 season.

He has a tough schedule this year, but he should have a healthy line, and healthy WRs for the first time in his career.

He is not a world beater, and in a standard 12-team fantasy league, he is clearly a back-up. But, he'll have some decent games in 2013.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Locker's not really on my radar this year, but I could he him surprising me this year. He was injured on and off last year. I don't know how many games he played partially, but ignoring the Houston game where he only threw the ball twice, he was averaging almost 220 yards, 1 TD, 1 INT, and 30 yards rushing.

It looks like he was healthy for week 12-16, so using that 5 game stretch, he finished QB18 despite a horrible 4:9 TD to INT ratio. So even a modest improvement in performance should make him a fringe starter. He doesn't appear to have the upside one would hope for, which is probably why he valued at QB26. Well, that and his injuries last year.

But 2013 could be a good year for him. The offensive line should be improved. Kendall Wright should be taking the next step from a pretty decent rookie year. Kenny Britt should be fully healed and fighting for a big contract. The loss of Cook sounds bad since his name is kind of a FF buzz word, but his production wasn't very substantial. When you take all that into account and add in his running ability, he clearly a great value play. You can probably snag him in the last round of most 12 team leagues, I'd think. If he stays healthy, he'll soundly outplay his current ADP and could feasibly breakout for a top 12 finish. Not likely, but I'd give him better odds than Lloyd Christmas hooking up with Mary Swanson.

 

LawFitz

Footballguy
Early season schedule is brutal.

His 1st half schedule is particularly brutal - opening @Pitt (1) and @ Hou (16), with games against SD (18), NYJ ( 2, albeit without Revis), KC (12), @Sea (6), and SF (4)
Fantastic post. I like Locker and his situation, but even in a 2 QB league, I'll probably avoid Titans this year until just before or at their bye week. Except maybe a WR4-5 flyer on Britt.

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
Things have gotten crowded with the titans.

Britt, Williams, Washington, Wright, Hunter, CJ, Walker (if healthy).

But is Palmer the OC? That sounds horrible, and it hasn't worked well for Locker. So I've been staying away from all Titans players.

Also this team just seemed to work better with Hasselbeck. I'm a fan of Locker but he never does become what he was drafted to be.

Anyone viewing Locker as even a last round flyer?

Estimates of 3000-3500 yards passing and 200 yards rushing seem reasonable?

How about Wright and Britt? You would think a young QB like Locker would develop a reliable favorite but he really hasn't from what I can tell. The whole offense is a mish-mash. And Britt was better with Hass, I don't think Locker has the gun or street smarts to get him the ball like he should be.

 
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Rushmore

Footballguy
Things have gotten crowded with the titans.

Britt, Williams, Washington, Wright, Hunter, CJ, Walker (if healthy).

But is Palmer the OC? That sounds horrible, and it hasn't worked well for Locker. So I've been staying away from all Titans players.

Also this team just seemed to work better with Hasselbeck. I'm a fan of Locker but he never does become what he was drafted to be.

Anyone viewing Locker as even a last round flyer?

Estimates of 3000-3500 yards passing and 200 yards rushing seem reasonable?

How about Wright and Britt? You would think a young QB like Locker would develop a reliable favorite but he really hasn't from what I can tell. The whole offense is a mish-mash. And Britt was better with Hass, I don't think Locker has the gun or street smarts to get him the ball like he should be.
Loggains is the OC. Regarding Locker, I think while his floor is relatively low, he has some interesting upside and is a tad under ranked considering his athletic abilities, weapons, and the fact that he is working with an improved offensive line. He's looked improved this preseason imo. Again, I acknowledge his floor, but still think he has more upside than many give him credit for.

 

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