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Player Spotlight: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Jamaal Charles Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Nothing on this planet short of injury (something all players contend with) will prevent him from being a top 4-5 RB in ppr leagues and he will be in that exclusive tier of players where its those handful of guys and then a big 50-70 point dropoff to the next tier which is still very good but clearly not in the elite company.

No one that knows this game at all will be surprised one bit if he ends up #1 by 20 points.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
There are only a few RBs capable of 2000 rushing yards. Charles is one of them. If he got more goalline love, he would right there with ADP and Foster. Smith should be adequate at QB, so Charles has a chance at a monster year. I can't see him being available past pick 7 in any league this year.

300 car, 1525 yds rushing, 7 TD

50 rec, 375 rec yards, 1 TD

 

donkshow

Footballguy
The guy is an absolute beast. He'll finish with the most offensive yards. I think Smith is the perfect QB for him. He's a careful QB and will look for the safe dump-off more often than not when Bowe is covered.

 
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meyerj31

Footballguy
Normally I tend to zig when others are zagging or avoid when everyone else is in love with a player but I'm going to make the exception for Charles this year. I can't possibly pass on AP but Charles is the rock solid 1.02 in any format.

1800 total yards easily, IMO. There's nothing to dislike here. He's got everything going for him, from coach, to decent QB, to solid offensive line, to a true #1 in Bowe stretching the field. Love him this year.

 
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pghrob

Hail to the Chief
Planets and stars aligned for legitimate should at rb1 season. 275 carries for 1345 yards and 9 rush TD'S and 3 fumbles. 68 receptions 650 yards 4 rec TD'S.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
225/1100; 72/612; 9 total TDs -- top 3 RB
>Planets and stars aligned for legitimate should at rb1 season. 275 carries for 1345 yards and 9 rush TD'S and 3 fumbles. 68 receptions 650 yards 4 rec TD'S.
Any reason you're both projecting him for almost a full ypc below his career average and almost a half ypc below his career low? Just regression?
Mine's a typo. 225/1200 -- 72/612 -- 9 TDs

 

pghrob

Hail to the Chief
225/1100; 72/612; 9 total TDs -- top 3 RB
Planets and stars aligned for legitimate should at rb1 season. 275 carries for 1345 yards and 9 rush TD'S and 3 fumbles. 68 receptions 650 yards 4 rec TD'S.
Any reason you're both projecting him for almost a full ypc below his career average and almost a half ypc below his career low? Just regression?
Yes, I have to think he comes down in both averages and closer, yet still above league norms.
 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
OK, well then, here I go being the bucket of cold water again, I guess.

I watched just about every snap of Andy Reid's 14-year tenure with the Eagles. And anyone who thinks a 14-year-old leopard can change his spots overnight is welcome to pencil in Charles for a 2,000-yard season. But LeSean McCoy is every bit the halfback Charles is, and here were Shady's total touches per game the past 3 years under Reid: 21.2, 21.4, 18.9.

And here are Philly's total rushing attempts per game the past five years under Reid: 25.8, 28.1, 26.4, 23.4, 26.1. Bear in mind those latter three figures are from playoff teams that were holding leads much of the time.

Reid just does not like to run the ball consistently. Period. End of statement. It doesn't matter what the game situation is, or where his team is on the field, or how much talent he has in the backfield, or who he has under center. I'm happy that now, instead of me standing up and yelling at my television, "Come on, you clown, give the ####### ball to Shady!" it will be Chiefs fans standing up and yelling, "Come on, you clown, give the ####### ball to Charles!"

JC is an immensely talented halfback, one that I'd be happy to own at the right price in any league, redraft or dynasty. He'll be a decent bet to finish in the top 5. But in order for Charles to put up Peterson / Foster-level numbers, he will have to get Peterson / Foster levels of touches - especially at the goal line. Maybe he will: Shady ran for 17 TD's in 2011. But I'm not willing to gamble the 2nd overall pick on that.

Projection: 288 rushes, 1,523 yards (5.3 avg), 6 TD; 42 rec, 322 yds (7.7 avg), 1 TD

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
OK, well then, here I go being the bucket of cold water again, I guess.

I watched just about every snap of Andy Reid's 14-year tenure with the Eagles. And anyone who thinks a 14-year-old leopard can change his spots overnight is welcome to pencil in Charles for a 2,000-yard season. But LeSean McCoy is every bit the halfback Charles is, and here were Shady's total touches per game the past 3 years under Reid: 21.2, 21.4, 18.9.

And here are Philly's total rushing attempts per game the past five years under Reid: 25.8, 28.1, 26.4, 23.4, 26.1. Bear in mind those latter three figures are from playoff teams that were holding leads much of the time.

Reid just does not like to run the ball consistently. Period. End of statement. It doesn't matter what the game situation is, or where his team is on the field, or how much talent he has in the backfield, or who he has under center. I'm happy that now, instead of me standing up and yelling at my television, "Come on, you clown, give the ####### ball to Shady!" it will be Chiefs fans standing up and yelling, "Come on, you clown, give the ####### ball to Charles!"

JC is an immensely talented halfback, one that I'd be happy to own at the right price in any league, redraft or dynasty. He'll be a decent bet to finish in the top 5. But in order for Charles to put up Peterson / Foster-level numbers, he will have to get Peterson / Foster levels of touches - especially at the goal line. Maybe he will: Shady ran for 17 TD's in 2011. But I'm not willing to gamble the 2nd overall pick on that.

Projection: 288 rushes, 1,523 yards (5.3 avg), 6 TD; 42 rec, 322 yds (7.7 avg), 1 TD
I was coming here to post something similar. I'd even say your projection of 288 carries is on the high side. Since '04 with Westbrook and McCoy in their primes, Reid's only had them carry over 250 in a season twice (2007, 2011). They each averaged less than 21 touches per game in their prime. Charles has averaged 17.2 touches per game to this point in his career ignoring his rookie season.

 

unckeyherb

Footballguy
Reid is head-bangingly frustrating sometimes and I too am happy that I don't have to endure second halves where Shady runs the ball 3 times. That being said, I think you are selling Reid's overall RB usage short-its true that he doesn't run a ton, but he ABSOLUTELY gets his RBs involved in the passing game. A lot. '04 to '12 here are the breakdowns of westy and mccoy based on games played... (rushes/yards/rushes per game; receptions/yards/rec per game) BWest:2004- 177/812/13.6; 73/703/5.62005- 156/617/13; 61/616/52006- 240/1217/16; 77/699/5.12007 278/1333/18.5; 90/771/62008- 233/936/16.6; 54/402/3.9 Shady:2009- 155/637/9.6; 40/308/2.5 *Rookie Year2010- 207/1080/14; 78/592/5.22011- 273/1309/18.2; 48/315/3.22012- 200/840/16.6; 54/373/4.5 Charles has averaged 40 receptions per year since '09. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see that jump by 20-30 receptions. Seriously. Reid is not a good in-game manager, but he's no dummy either and his prep for games is usually good. He is going to find ways to get Charles the ball in space. I think you will see a lot of game where Charles has an almost even split of rushes/receptions. 270/1380/6 65/425/3 = 299.5 FFP or right between Foster and Lynch at RB 4 last year.

 
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Shutout

Footballguy
Allow me to turn on the hot water for that cold shower you just gave us. :)

Your thoughts on Reid are dead on. That is definitely how he has been. But I think the difference here in Kansas City lies more with things other than Reid.

Shady is terrific and he is by far one of my favorite players to actually watch on the field (except when I play against him in fantasy).

But I think the one thing that Charles can consistently do much better than Shady and probably much better than anyone in the league other than about 3 other rbs, is he can absolutely blister you on back to back plays, multiple times in a game and that is what gives the opportunity for the gaudy stat lines. It is part of the reason why he has the highest career ypc among RBs who have any sizeable body of work and I believe it is part of the reason why he can be a player who can get to those numbers without 24+ carries every week.

The other reason is its a different conference and quite frankly, given two great RBs like Shady and Charles, I much prefer a schedule that gets the Raiders and Chargers twice, the Browns and the Bills, and teams like that vs. spending the entire months of November and Decmebr knocking heads with the Skins, Giants, Bears, Packers, Vikings, etc. I know that's not a scientific point to stand on but, in general, it just seems like the NFC East games turn to nasty slobber knockers and the AFC West always generates Tecmo Bowl pinball scores.

Charles, to me, is one of those 3-4 guys in the league that give me the heebie jeebies like Barry Sanders used to. You play against him one week and you watch that stat line and 40 minutes in it might read 20 rushes for 42 yards. And then you come back 10 minutes later and its 23/162/2. I think he has the best surroundings/coach/opportunity situation he has ever had and it will show this year

 

zamboni

Footballguy
IMO, it's not a fair comparison for Charles vs. McCoy. Not in terms of talent, as each of them are supremely talented RBs.

But rather in situation. McCoy had/has among the the best running QBs in the history of the game - assuredly costing McCoy some touches. Now Alex Smith is also pretty mobile, but Vick-like he's not. This may give more touches to Charles, assuming of course the team is in games.

275-1400-8, 65-500-4

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Posted this earlier in another Charles thread:

Player Year G Rec Yds TDs

LeSean McCoy 2012 12 54 373 3

LeSean McCoy 2011 15 48 315 3

LeSean McCoy 2010 15 78 592 2

Brian Westbrook 2008 14 54 402 5

Brian Westbrook 2007 15 90 771 5

Brian Westbrook 2006 15 77 699 4

Brian Westbrook 2005 12 61 616 4

Brian Westbrook 2004 13 73 703 6

Totals 111 535 4471 32

I took 2009 out since McCoy and Westbrook split time. That's an average of 4.82 receptions per game for Reid's top back. Which works out to 77 in a full season.

ETA: echoing the other 1,342,921 comments... the new message board software is essentially unusable.

 
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Wyld Stallyns

Footballguy
Regarding touches, last year JC only touched the ball 18x or more in nine games. In every other game he was under-utilized.

In those nine games he rushed for 1,273 yards (an average of 141 rushing yards per game, and 84% of his year-end total), and he scored all 6 of his TDs for the year. :excited:

I don't expect him to get the 30+ carry games again, but if he's utilized more in the passing game and can average 18+ touches per game I think he'll make a lot of owners very happy... Regardless of what McCoy or Westbrook or anybody has done in the past. As a Charles owner all I care about is him being consistently utilized as a focal point of the offense and getting those 18+ touches. When he touches the ball enough, good things happen.

16 touches (16 Ru, 0 Rc)

09 touches (6 Ru, 3 Rc)

39 touches (33 Ru, 6 Rc) --- 233 RuYd, 1TD / 55 RcYd, 0TD

20 touches (17 Ru, 3 Rc) --- 88 RuYd, 1TD / 23 RcYd, 1TD

33 touches (31 Ru, 2 Rc) --- 140 RuYd, 0TD / 21 RcYd, 0TD

14 touches (12 Ru, 2 Rc)

08 touches (5 Ru, 3 Rc)

15 touches (12 Ru, 3 Rc)

23 touches (23 Ru, 0 Rc) --- 100 RuYd, 1TD / 0 RcYd, 0TD

21 touches (17 Ru, 4 Rc) --- 87 RuYd, 0TD / 31 RcYd, 0TD

23 touches (23 Ru, 0 Rc) --- 107 RuYd, 0TD / 0 RcYd, 0TD

31 touches (27 Ru, 4 Rc) --- 127 RuYd, 0TD / 11 RcYd, 0TD

18 touches (18 Ru, 0 Rc) --- 165 RuYd, 1TD / 0 RcYd, 0TD

12 touches (9 Ru, 3 Rc)

23 touches (22 Ru, 1 Rc) --- 226 RuYd, 1TD / 4 RcYd, 0TD

15 touches (14 Ru, 1 Rc)

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
unckeyherb said:
Reid is head-bangingly frustrating sometimes and I too am happy that I don't have to endure second halves where Shady runs the ball 3 times. That being said, I think you are selling Reid's overall RB usage short-its true that he doesn't run a ton, but he ABSOLUTELY gets his RBs involved in the passing game. A lot. '04 to '12 here are the breakdowns of westy and mccoy based on games played... (rushes/yards/rushes per game; receptions/yards/rec per game) BWest:2004- 177/812/13.6; 73/703/5.62005- 156/617/13; 61/616/52006- 240/1217/16; 77/699/5.12007 278/1333/18.5; 90/771/62008- 233/936/16.6; 54/402/3.9 Shady:2009- 155/637/9.6; 40/308/2.5 *Rookie Year2010- 207/1080/14; 78/592/5.22011- 273/1309/18.2; 48/315/3.22012- 200/840/16.6; 54/373/4.5 Charles has averaged 40 receptions per year since '09. I wouldn't be surprised in the least to see that jump by 20-30 receptions. Seriously. Reid is not a good in-game manager, but he's no dummy either and his prep for games is usually good. He is going to find ways to get Charles the ball in space. I think you will see a lot of game where Charles has an almost even split of rushes/receptions. 270/1380/6 65/425/3 = 299.5 FFP or right between Foster and Lynch at RB 4 last year.
All fair points, but my thinking, based on 14 years of observation, is Reid's belief that "screen pass = rush attempt". He may well draw up a playbook that gets the ball to Charles in the flat 60-65 times instead of the 42 I projected, but if so, I'd guess most or all of that incremental 20-25 would come straight off of his rush attempts total. I don't think it's going to materially impact his final numbers in terms of touches.

Even if you prorate Shady's numbers for last year to a full 16 games, that still makes only 3 of the last 8 years in which Reid's lead back has gotten at least 20 touches a game. Add to that Reid's willingness - nay, eagerness - to throw the ball on second-and-goal from the 2, and I don't see any way Charles threatens the 300-point mark in PPR.

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
2005 Westbrook: 19.0 ppg

2006 Westbrook: 22.0 ppg

2007 Westbrook: 24.7 ppg

2008 Westbrook: 19.3 ppg

2010 McCoy: 19.8 ppg

2011 McCoy: 21.9 ppg

2012 McCoy: 16.6 ppg

What were we arguing about again?

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
McCoy and Westbrook were damn good RBs -- Pro Bowl level players for sure. Charles is, IMO, a tier above them IMO. He is the ALL-TIME NFL LEADER IN YPC for RBs, and has done it on a crappy team, with minimal passing threat, and with 8 men in the box virtually his entire career. Yeah, he's almost a full yard per carry better than Barry effing Sanders!!!! No, I'm not saying he's better than Sanders, but he's really a remarkable talent. As a multiple league dynasty Charles owner I'm more than OK with his carries decreasing to the 250 mark while his catches go up into the 70ish range. And Reid might run more in KC -- McNabb and Vick vs. Alex Smith? Putting the ball in Charles' hands is going to be the better play, by far, than having Smith throwing 40 times / game...

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
dude is a STUD 325/1856/14 60/750/5 HTH
So Charles is going to smash FF scoring records but Trent Richardson is your "must have player" this year? What's Trent gonna do? 400-2000-20 and 100-1000-10? I love Charles, maybe even drinking too much Kool Aid on him, but give me a break, man. The NFL isn't Madden.
 

CentralPA

Footballguy
Really not sure what to expect from Charles. He could potentially end up the RB1 over in PPR and top 5 in standard scoring. I'd love to have him on my roster, isn't happening though. Reid has been labelled a no run guy but McCoy and Westbrook were top 5 fantasy producers under him. Charles is the best weapon KC has next to Bowe. Don't see how Big Red doesn't get the ball into Charles hands whether it be on the ground or through the air.

If he can stay on the field I am thinking at least 1500 All purpose yards, 8 rushing TDs and probably 4 catching TDs. Guy could end up beating out everyone except ADP. PPR gold and RB1 in standard still.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
2005 Westbrook: 19.0 ppg2006 Westbrook: 22.0 ppg2007 Westbrook: 24.7 ppg2008 Westbrook: 19.3 ppg2010 McCoy: 19.8 ppg2011 McCoy: 21.9 ppg2012 McCoy: 16.6 ppgWhat were we arguing about again?
Exactly. The idea that a RB cannot produce with Reid as his head coach is crazy talk. Sure, Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but he throws to the RBs a lot, too, and a good passing game opening things up for a guy with the burst and big-play ability of Charles is not something to be overlooked. I haven't been a big of Charles before now (I avoided him in 2011 cause I didn't know if he could go it again and then he got hurt, and I avoided him in 2012 because he was coming off of the injury), but it is hard not to love him this year. He is a definite top 5 pick.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
2005 Westbrook: 19.0 ppg2006 Westbrook: 22.0 ppg2007 Westbrook: 24.7 ppg2008 Westbrook: 19.3 ppg2010 McCoy: 19.8 ppg2011 McCoy: 21.9 ppg2012 McCoy: 16.6 ppgWhat were we arguing about again?
Exactly. The idea that a RB cannot produce with Reid as his head coach is crazy talk. Sure, Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but he throws to the RBs a lot, too, and a good passing game opening things up for a guy with the burst and big-play ability of Charles is not something to be overlooked. I haven't been a big of Charles before now (I avoided him in 2011 cause I didn't know if he could go it again and then he got hurt, and I avoided him in 2012 because he was coming off of the injury), but it is hard not to love him this year. He is a definite top 5 pick.
I don't think anyone is saying he can't produce, but projecting him for 300 carries and 50 rec is a bit unrealistic. Some of these projections are getting a bit carried away. Reid has only twice in 14 years with the Eagles had an RB average more than 21 touches per game. Yes, his RBs have been very productive.

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
2005 Westbrook: 19.0 ppg2006 Westbrook: 22.0 ppg2007 Westbrook: 24.7 ppg2008 Westbrook: 19.3 ppg2010 McCoy: 19.8 ppg2011 McCoy: 21.9 ppg2012 McCoy: 16.6 ppgWhat were we arguing about again?
Exactly. The idea that a RB cannot produce with Reid as his head coach is crazy talk. Sure, Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but he throws to the RBs a lot, too, and a good passing game opening things up for a guy with the burst and big-play ability of Charles is not something to be overlooked. I haven't been a big of Charles before now (I avoided him in 2011 cause I didn't know if he could go it again and then he got hurt, and I avoided him in 2012 because he was coming off of the injury), but it is hard not to love him this year. He is a definite top 5 pick.
I don't think anyone is saying he can't produce, but projecting him for 300 carries and 50 rec is a bit unrealistic. Some of these projections are getting a bit carried away. Reid has only twice in 14 years with the Eagles had an RB average more than 21 touches per game. Yes, his RBs have been very productive.
Okay, but Charles could get 250 carries and still rip off 1,250 rushing yards, while still getting 40 catches for 350+ yards, while scoring 10+ touchdowns. And I see that yardage as his floor.

 

Amused to Death

Footballguy
2005 Westbrook: 19.0 ppg2006 Westbrook: 22.0 ppg2007 Westbrook: 24.7 ppg2008 Westbrook: 19.3 ppg2010 McCoy: 19.8 ppg2011 McCoy: 21.9 ppg2012 McCoy: 16.6 ppgWhat were we arguing about again?
Exactly. The idea that a RB cannot produce with Reid as his head coach is crazy talk. Sure, Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but he throws to the RBs a lot, too, and a good passing game opening things up for a guy with the burst and big-play ability of Charles is not something to be overlooked. I haven't been a big of Charles before now (I avoided him in 2011 cause I didn't know if he could go it again and then he got hurt, and I avoided him in 2012 because he was coming off of the injury), but it is hard not to love him this year. He is a definite top 5 pick.
I don't think anyone is saying he can't produce, but projecting him for 300 carries and 50 rec is a bit unrealistic. Some of these projections are getting a bit carried away. Reid has only twice in 14 years with the Eagles had an RB average more than 21 touches per game. Yes, his RBs have been very productive.
Okay, but Charles could get 250 carries and still rip off 1,250 rushing yards, while still getting 40 catches for 350+ yards, while scoring 10+ touchdowns. And I see that yardage as his floor.
Not disagreeing with that. Very realistic in fact. Don't know if he'll score 10+ TDs.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Maybe not, but Charles is such a yardage monster that he doesn't need to score double digit touchdowns to still be a top 5 RB. And if he does, my goodness, the possibilities are scary.

 

Tackling Dummies

Footballguy
2005 Westbrook: 19.0 ppg2006 Westbrook: 22.0 ppg2007 Westbrook: 24.7 ppg2008 Westbrook: 19.3 ppg2010 McCoy: 19.8 ppg2011 McCoy: 21.9 ppg2012 McCoy: 16.6 ppgWhat were we arguing about again?
Exactly. The idea that a RB cannot produce with Reid as his head coach is crazy talk. Sure, Reid loves to throw the ball a lot, but he throws to the RBs a lot, too, and a good passing game opening things up for a guy with the burst and big-play ability of Charles is not something to be overlooked. I haven't been a big of Charles before now (I avoided him in 2011 cause I didn't know if he could go it again and then he got hurt, and I avoided him in 2012 because he was coming off of the injury), but it is hard not to love him this year. He is a definite top 5 pick.
I don't think anyone is saying he can't produce, but projecting him for 300 carries and 50 rec is a bit unrealistic. Some of these projections are getting a bit carried away. Reid has only twice in 14 years with the Eagles had an RB average more than 21 touches per game. Yes, his RBs have been very productive.
Okay, but Charles could get 250 carries and still rip off 1,250 rushing yards, while still getting 40 catches for 350+ yards, while scoring 10+ touchdowns. And I see that yardage as his floor.
Not disagreeing with that. Very realistic in fact. Don't know if he'll score 10+ TDs.
Nothing in the rearview mirror for Charles re: usage/carries , he's in a perfect spot to crack 10+ TDs.

 

zamboni

Footballguy
TDs are going to vary depending on game flow and situation, but one thing that may work in JC's favor is that Reid historically hasn't used a goal line back. Granted, that could change with a guy like Knile Davis, but hasn't been the m.o. over time for Reid.

 

Wyld Stallyns

Footballguy
He had 6 TDs last year while being under-utilized for 7 of his 16 games. If he doesn't get double digit TDs he'll be very close to it.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Even if you prorate Shady's numbers for last year to a full 16 games, that still makes only 3 of the last 8 years in which Reid's lead back has gotten at least 20 touches a game. Add to that Reid's willingness - nay, eagerness - to throw the ball on second-and-goal from the 2, and I don't see any way Charles threatens the 300-point mark in PPR.
I don't think anyone is saying he can't produce, but projecting him for 300 carries and 50 rec is a bit unrealistic. Some of these projections are getting a bit carried away. Reid has only twice in 14 years with the Eagles had an RB average more than 21 touches per game. Yes, his RBs have been very productive.
Brian Westbrook2004 - 250 touches in 13 games = 19.2 touches per game2005 - 217 touches in 12 games = 18.0 touches per game2006 - 317 touches in 15 games = 21.1 touches per game2007 - 368 touches in 15 games = 24.5 touches per game2008 - 287 touches in 14 games = 20.5 touches per gameLeSean McCoy2010 - 285 touches in 15 games = 19.0 touches per game2011 - 321 touches in 15 games = 21.4 touches per game2012 - 254 touches in 12 games = 21.2 touches per gamePrior to 2004, we were dealing with RBs like Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter, who I hardly think are relevant to Jamaal Charles. In 2009, Westbrook was broken down but McCoy was still a rookie, and the entire Philly RB situation was pretty unproductive. Other than that, we're looking at 20+ touches in 5 out of 8 seasons (and 21+ in 4 out of 8). As for threatening the 300 point mark... From 2004-2008, Brian Westbrook averaged about 335 points per 16 games in PPR. Over the last three years, McCoy has averaged about 310 points per 16 games in PPR. Kansas City may not be Philadelphia, but the 300 point threshold has historically been very achievable for Andy Reid's RBs in PPR.
Nothing in the rearview mirror for Charles re: usage/carries , he's in a perfect spot to crack 10+ TDs.
He very well could have 10 or more TDs. If he does, it will be the 6th time in Andy's 15 years he has a RB score double digit TDs.
Reid's lead RB was on pace to score double-digit TDs in 6 of the 8 seasons where he had a true lead RB (again, 2004-2008 for Brian Westbrook, 2010-2012 for LeSean McCoy). Plus Westbrook managed 13 touchdowns (11 offensive, 2 on punt returns) as a role player and CoP back in 2003, for good measure.As I said, bringing up what Reid did with Duce Staley and Correll Buckhalter isn't really all that relevant. Also, you can't analyze Westbrook or McCoy without recognizing that neither player ever played a full 16 games. If you think Andy Reid's offense leaves his RB at a greater risk for injury, and you want to argue that Jamaal Charles won't play a full 16 games, that's one thing. If you want to talk about production, though, there's not a whole lot of argument. In his prime, Brian Westbrook averaged 262 points per 16 games in non-PPR, which would have tied him with Foster and Martin as RB2 last year. Over the last three years, LeSean McCoy has averaged 247 points per 16 games in non-PPR, which would have tied him with Lynch as RB4 last year. Andy Reid has been every bit as much of a fantasy godsend for his RBs as Norv Turner or Cam Cameron. He's unconventional, for sure, but his RBs have historically been major fantasy studs.
 

unckeyherb

Footballguy
Put it this way...its been about a decade since a Reid RB was drafted outside the top 5 RBs. That should tell you all you need to know.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
I'll get into the discussion later when I have time. For now ill just post projections, which this thread seems to be lacking the most IMO.

272 carries, 1445 yds, 8 TDs

62 receptions, 485 yds, 2 TDs

20.87 touches per game for those of you discussing that.

Stud, top 5 RB if healthy.

 

KellysHeroes

Footballguy
I agree that we are all expecting a top 5 finish for JC, pretty much anything otside of a top 10 finish would be a huge disappointment. But the bad news is hes 26 and turns 27 late this season, and we all know how hard it is to get anything in return for a 27 RB not named Peterson. If you take him or trade for him this yr just remember whatever you give up you will not get back when you but him on the trade block next season; if you get him you'll have to ride him out for the next 3 or 4 yrs or sell super short. Hell, I know people that are having a very hard time trying to sell him now.

Projecting anywhere from 1800-2000 total / 60 Recs / 7 TDs

 

Shutout

Footballguy
I agree that we are all expecting a top 5 finish for JC, pretty much anything otside of a top 10 finish would be a huge disappointment. But the bad news is hes 26 and turns 27 late this season, and we all know how hard it is to get anything in return for a 27 RB not named Peterson. If you take him or trade for him this yr just remember whatever you give up you will not get back when you but him on the trade block next season; if you get him you'll have to ride him out for the next 3 or 4 yrs or sell super short. Hell, I know people that are having a very hard time trying to sell him now.

Projecting anywhere from 1800-2000 total / 60 Recs / 7 TDs
-Which is why the smart people got him last year. Anyone who couldn't see that he would soon be in a better situation than he was very soon shouldn't be playing FF. Getting reid was the cherry on top.

-And what exactly is wrong with having one of the studliest fantasy RBs during his prime in his best situation he has ever had (fantasy-wise)? People get to caught up in "buy low and sell high". SOmetimes, it IS the best course of action to simply get a great player and ride them home (and collect some hardware along the way).

-Ok, I need to see links to leagues on that last one because assuming you play with competent owners, I can not imagine an owner who would have a hard time selling Charles if they were being anywhere near reasonable. What I see happening is he is not being traded because people don't even bother making an offer for him...because they know he is in that "Calvin/Rodgers/AJ/Dez" neighborhood of value. Simply put, people can't afford him and they know it so they don't even try but if ANYONE is putting him up for sell and not asking for the moon, there is NO problem fidning a buyer for him.

 

OnTheReg

Footballguy
Any Chiefs homers want to way in on how Charles has looked in training camp/what the beat guys are saying about Charles' usage?

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
I agree that we are all expecting a top 5 finish for JC, pretty much anything otside of a top 10 finish would be a huge disappointment. But the bad news is hes 26 and turns 27 late this season, and we all know how hard it is to get anything in return for a 27 RB not named Peterson. If you take him or trade for him this yr just remember whatever you give up you will not get back when you but him on the trade block next season; if you get him you'll have to ride him out for the next 3 or 4 yrs or sell super short. Hell, I know people that are having a very hard time trying to sell him now.

Projecting anywhere from 1800-2000 total / 60 Recs / 7 TDs
-Which is why the smart people got him last year. Anyone who couldn't see that he would soon be in a better situation than he was very soon shouldn't be playing FF. Getting reid was the cherry on top.
I must have missed your post last year about Jamaal rushing for 1500 yards after a serious knee injury, then getting a very RB-happy offensive-minded head coach who would trade several second rounders to land a check-down happy QB, as well as knowing that the Chiefs would have the worst record and get the best lineman in the draft.

WHOEVER DIDN'T SEE THAT COMING SHOULDN'T BE PLAYING FANTASY FOOTBALL!!!!!!!!

What. A. Dousche.

 
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KellysHeroes

Footballguy
Jamaal Charles went down with an unknown injury in Monday's practice, and was carted to the locker room.
Details are scarce, as the Chiefs are one of the most lightly-covered teams in the NFL. Coach Andy Reid is expected to make a statement after practice. Carts are obviously never a good thing, but there's no reason to panic until more details are known. It could be something as simple as a rolled ankle. Stay tuned.
 

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