Player Spotlight: Jason Witten (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys

Player Page Link: Jason Witten Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Biabreakable]

I am concerned that TO and Glenn will get too many targets. This will keep him from getting back to the production we saw from him in 2004. He might even regress a few catches from last year.

I think Witten is a very talented TE and could be top 5 or possibly even top 3 if the situation were different. But TO will demand the ball and Bledsoe needs time to get it to him.

 

[jdoggydogg]

As we know, one of the keys to great TE production is:

Talented TE + limited talent at receiver = nice fantasy numbers.

Witten has plenty of talent. He has good hands, good speed, and runs nice crisp routes. So the talent is not a problem. However, Witten owners will remember that his greatest peak of production came in 2004 when Terry Glenn was out for an extended time due to injury. With the arrival of Terrell Owens, Witten's targets will absolutely drop. Parcells mentioned that Owens won't catch 100 balls in this offense. We understand that this is Parcells telling Owens to temper his enthusiasm. But let's be realistic: Dallas signed Owens to catch touchdowns. And catch them he will. As good as Witten is, his numbers will be hurt by one of the biggest playmakers in football.

Projection: 57 Receptions, 620 Receiving Yards, 5 Receiving TDs.

 

[netnalp]

This article (linked in an FBG updated i think) hints that Witten might be a good sell high TE early on. http://www.nfl.com/news/story/9444769

 

[zamboni]

While the addition of Owens will most likely hurt Witten, I think Witten's role as the possession receiver grows with Keyshawn gone. Owens and Glenn are primarily big-play, down the field guys, which likely leaves Witten to camp out in the middle of the field. Think Shockey, but without as much offensive focus. And if they run two TE sets with Fasano, the rookie may take on blocking duties (which Witten had to last year), enabling Jason to run more patterns.

Net/net, I think his numbers could stay around the same.

 

[Futeki]

The situation could not have been any worse for Witten last year, excluding an injury. He had to stay in to block often and when he didn't, he was double teamed. The Cowboy WRs were good enough to get plenty of catches but not good enough to draw double teams away from him. Parcells said they would be satisfied throwing it to the open receiver and not forcing the ball into the double team.

Now Dallas brings in another TE freeing Witten up more for receiving. Enter Terrell Owens who will command the double teams. I see 2004 as a peak and 2005 as the bottom. He presents very little risk to meet production in between.

76 receptions

865 yards

6 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

Some of the comments I have seen regarding Witten imply that Owens and Witten may not both be able to be top producers in the same lineup. That got me wonder how many times a team has had a Top 5 TE and Top 5 WR on the same team.

Going back 20 years, here's what I found:

2005 WAS Cooley/SMoss

2001 IND Pollard/Harrison

2001 DEN Clark/RSmith

1997 DEN Sharpe/RSmith

1995 GBP Chmura/Brooks

1994 SFO Jones/Rice

1992 SFO Jones/Rice

1992 DAL Novacek/Irvin

1992 GBP Harris/Sharpe

1991 DAL Novacek/Irvin

1990 SFO Jones/Rice

1988 RAMS Holohan/Ellard

1987 CARDS Awalt/JTSmith

1985 PHI Spagnola/Quick

This occurred more times than I would have thought, and there were several other tandems that were close. I think part of the reason there were not more teams with similar outcomes is that few teams have players that have the talent and opportunity to be Top 5 at their positions--let alone both on the same team at the same time.

As far as Witten goes, I have posted many times that Witten's 2004 numbers were inflated based on injuries to many of the other offensive weapons. That reulted in Witten being the prime source of production for about a month and a strecth he has not repeated since. That 4-game stretch amounted to 32 receptions, 426 receiving yards, and 4 TD.

That works out to 8 receptions, 107 receiving yards, and a TD per game. Deducting that month from his totals over the past two years, that would make his average weekly stat line: 4.32 receptions, 46.82 receiving yards, and 0.29 TD per games.

Over the span of a full season, that would project to 69 receptions, 749 receiving yards, and 5 TD. Not coincidentally, that almost exactly mirrors his stats from last year (66-757-6 ).

IMO, Witten may lose a shade of his production with TO in town, but not a ton. 60-700-5

 

[Sleeper 43]

The situation could not have been any worse for Witten last year, excluding an injury. He had to stay in to block often and when he didn't, he was double teamed. The Cowboy WRs were good enough to get plenty of catches but not good enough to draw double teams away from him. Parcells said they would be satisfied throwing it to the open receiver and not forcing the ball into the double team.

Now Dallas brings in another TE freeing Witten up more for receiving. Enter Terrell Owens who will command the double teams. I see 2004 as a peak and 2005 as the bottom. He presents very little risk to meet production in between.

76 receptions

865 yards

6 TDs

I may be a little more optimistic at 80/900/7. IMO its the first time he has talent better than his own for defenses to focus on. Parcells is smart and wont force the ball to TO during double teams.

 

[derek19]

Some of the comments I have seen regarding Witten imply that Owens and Witten may not both be able to be top producers in the same lineup. That got me wonder how many times a team has had a Top 5 TE and Top 5 WR on the same team.

Going back 20 years, here's what I found:

2005 WAS Cooley/SMoss

2001 IND Pollard/Harrison

2001 DEN Clark/RSmith

1997 DEN Sharpe/RSmith

1995 GBP Chmura/Brooks

1994 SFO Jones/Rice

1992 SFO Jones/Rice

1992 DAL Novacek/Irvin

1992 GBP Harris/Sharpe

1991 DAL Novacek/Irvin

1990 SFO Jones/Rice

1988 RAMS Holohan/Ellard

1987 CARDS Awalt/JTSmith

1985 PHI Spagnola/Quick

This occurred more times than I would have thought, and there were several other tandems that were close. I think part of the reason there were not more teams with similar outcomes is that few teams have players that have the talent and opportunity to be Top 5 at their positions--let alone both on the same team at the same time.

As far as Witten goes, I have posted many times that Witten's 2004 numbers were inflated based on injuries to many of the other offensive weapons. That reulted in Witten being the prime source of production for about a month and a strecth he has not repeated since. That 4-game stretch amounted to 32 receptions, 426 receiving yards, and 4 TD.

That works out to 8 receptions, 107 receiving yards, and a TD per game. Deducting that month from his totals over the past two years, that would make his average weekly stat line: 4.32 receptions, 46.82 receiving yards, and 0.29 TD per games.

Over the span of a full season, that would project to 69 receptions, 749 receiving yards, and 5 TD. Not coincidentally, that almost exactly mirrors his stats from last year (66-757-6 ).

IMO, Witten may lose a shade of his production with TO in town, but not a ton. 60-700-5

Good stuff David. I have Witten/owens in one league and was thinking about trading owens away. But i might hang on to him now.....

 

[ATC1]

I can't believe nobody mentioned rookie TE Anthony Fasano. It has be reported that Parcells loves the kid. from KFFL "is going to have a significant role in the Cowboys' offense, in part, because head coach Bill Parcells said the second-round draft choice reminds him of former NFL TE Mark Bavaro. Fasano is a good receiver who does a nifty job of finding soft spots in zones, and Parcells really likes the fact that his hands measured 10 inches at the NFL Combine. Fasano will also be the Cowboys' move tight end, which means they'll use him in motion and as a lead blocker. The team also feels he will also pose a problem in the passing game because he's bigger than most safeties and faster than most linebackers"

It was also stated that the cowboys will use a lot of the 2 TE sets. I like Witten's talents. I don't like his opportuities now with the off season moves.

55-550-4 TDs

 

[zamboni]

I can believe nobody mentioned rookie TE Anthony Fasano.

And if they run two TE sets with Fasano, the rookie may take on blocking duties (which Witten had to last year), enabling Jason to run more patterns.

 

[ATC1]

Sorry, I missed you zamboni, but IMO Witten blocking will allow Fasano to go out in pass routes.

 

[zamboni]

Sorry, I missed you zamboni, but IMO Witten blocking will allow Fasano to go out in pass routes.

I think you have it in reverse, but time will tell. Witten is a terrific receiver, although I can't account for his blocking. I don't think Parcells will give Fasano all that much to do beyond blocking as a rookie.

 

[Phlash]

Sorry, I missed you zamboni, but IMO Witten blocking will allow Fasano to go out in pass routes.

I think you have it in reverse, but time will tell. Witten is a terrific receiver, although I can't account for his blocking. I don't think Parcells will give Fasano all that much to do beyond blocking as a rookie.

I'd think he'd want his veterans blocking when he knows he has Drew Bledsoe behind center, and let the rook go out for passes when he knows he has other options (TO, Glenn) that will get the job done.

 

[WhoDat]

I am concerned that TO and Glenn will get too many targets. This will keep him from getting back to the production we saw from him in 2004. He might even regress a few catches from last year.

I think Witten is a very talented TE and could be top 5 or possibly even top 3 if the situation were different. But TO will demand the ball and Bledsoe needs time to get it to him.

And the other side of the coin is the fact that Dallas now has two receivers that are going to put a tremendous amount of pressure on the outside of the field, as well as keeping safeties back and honest for threat of the deep ball. Suddenly, if Dallas so chooses through playcalling, the middle of the field is WIDE open on nearly every play. Witten is going to see soft man to man or zones all...season...long. High percentage pass with a low degree of difficulty. Parcells appears to have always allowed his TE to foster. I do not see that changing because Owens is with the team. My opinion is that Witten will see better opportunities in the offense to get to the football. He or Glenn will be the player most likely to have the most obvious mistmatch. Owens can piss and moan all he wants. Parcells is not going to listen. That is a pair of old dogs that are not going to learn any new tricks and my money would rest with the Coach winning that sword fight.

If you are a DC, which would you rather do? Let Owens and Glenn get deep, behind or outside versus forfeit the short/middle to Witten? You can only eliminate one or the other. Sure, you can mix up calls over the course of the game but in terms of the overall game strategy you have to plan to stop one or the other.

I do not see the numbers taking that large of a hit and look at Fasano as an immediate replacement for D. Campbell and potential, future replacement for Witten should he, Witten, decide to leave for FA after this season. I know Parcells likes the kid but Witten, opinion, is safe for another productive year in Dallas. I tend to agree his numbers are in the 700-800 yard 6-8 TD range.

 

[zamboni]

A bit more on Fasano's potential impact. Puff piece or is this guy going to cut into Witten's numbers?

Cowboys | Expectations high for Fasano

Wed, 28 Jun 2006 05:23:52 -0700

Rick Herrin, of the Star-Telegram, reports expectations are high for Dallas Cowboys rookie TE Anthony Fasano in 2006. He is expected to start immediately as the Cowboys shift to a two-tight end formation full time when training camp begins July 29 in Oxnard, Calif. He brings good hands and a good knowledge of the scheme after playing under head coach Charlie Weis, a former assistant of Cowboys' head coach Bill Parcells' with the New England Patriots and New York Jets. Fasano, who finished second all-time among Irish tight ends in catches, was one of three finalists for the John Mackey Award, given to the country's top tight end. Fasano has drawn predictable comparisons to ex-Giant and Notre Dame product TE Mark Bavaro, who was one of Parcells' workhorses during the Giants' glory days. Fasano's upside includes good hands, feet and knowledge of the system. Blocking might be his biggest need for improvement.