Player Spotlight: Jay Cutler (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jay Cutler, QB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Jay Cutler Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Not going to be zipping it all over the place like many think.

3,000 yds...less than 200 yds passing a game

16 TD

10 Int

I don't see great things from the Denver passing game as they have revamped the defense and will be able to stay in games by running the football.

 

[SSOG]

Not going to be zipping it all over the place like many think.3,000 yds...less than 200 yds passing a game16 TD10 IntI don't see great things from the Denver passing game as they have revamped the defense and will be able to stay in games by running the football.

I feel like those numbers are incredibly out of line with Denver's historical passing production. Denver managed to build huge leads and then kill clock with the running game in 2005, but they still put up 3373 passing yards. Historically speaking, under Shanahan, Denver is more likely to pass for more than 4,000 yards (4 times, or 33% of the time)) than it is to pass for under 3300 yards (just twice, including last season).Denver's two sub-3300 passing seasons came in a year when the defense was ranked 8th in points allowed (tied for its fourth-best finish) and in a season where its defense was 21st in points allowed (its second worst finish). Granted, I don't think Cutler is in for a 4,000 yard season here, but I think he has far too many weapons (including the incredible Javon Walker) for Denver to repeat its brutal 3,000 yard performance from last year.By the way, here are all of Denver's passing TD totals under Shanahan- 27, 26, 27, 32, 16, 28, 26, 21, 19, 27, 18, 20. The only time Denver has finished below 20 TDs was in 1999 (after Elway retired), in 2003 (when Buerlein and Kanell started a large chunk of the season), and in 2005 (which, I'm assuming, is the season you expect next year to most resemble).I think Cutler is far too talented, and Denver's WRs/TEs are far too talented, for Shanahan to relegate the passing game to such a secondary role. He's already talking about making Javon Walker and the deep pass the focal point of the offense, and has acquired a backup QB in Patrick Ramsey who has backed up that claim (Ramsey's biggest selling point was his big arm, perfect for all the deep passes Denver wants to work back into its playbook). I would project more along the lines of 3400 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 INTs- nothing to set the world on fire, no, but borderline QB1 / solid QB2 numbers. Remember, even in 2005 (which, again, is the season I assume you expect next year will resemble), Jake Plummer finished as QB11.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Not going to be zipping it all over the place like many think.3,000 yds...less than 200 yds passing a game16 TD10 IntI don't see great things from the Denver passing game as they have revamped the defense and will be able to stay in games by running the football.

I feel like those numbers are incredibly out of line with Denver's historical passing production. Denver managed to build huge leads and then kill clock with the running game in 2005, but they still put up 3373 passing yards. Historically speaking, under Shanahan, Denver is more likely to pass for more than 4,000 yards (4 times, or 33% of the time)) than it is to pass for under 3300 yards (just twice, including last season).Denver's two sub-3300 passing seasons came in a year when the defense was ranked 8th in points allowed (tied for its fourth-best finish) and in a season where its defense was 21st in points allowed (its second worst finish). Granted, I don't think Cutler is in for a 4,000 yard season here, but I think he has far too many weapons (including the incredible Javon Walker) for Denver to repeat its brutal 3,000 yard performance from last year.By the way, here are all of Denver's passing TD totals under Shanahan- 27, 26, 27, 32, 16, 28, 26, 21, 19, 27, 18, 20. The only time Denver has finished below 20 TDs was in 1999 (after Elway retired), in 2003 (when Buerlein and Kanell started a large chunk of the season), and in 2005 (which, I'm assuming, is the season you expect next year to most resemble).I think Cutler is far too talented, and Denver's WRs/TEs are far too talented, for Shanahan to relegate the passing game to such a secondary role. He's already talking about making Javon Walker and the deep pass the focal point of the offense, and has acquired a backup QB in Patrick Ramsey who has backed up that claim (Ramsey's biggest selling point was his big arm, perfect for all the deep passes Denver wants to work back into its playbook). I would project more along the lines of 3400 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 INTs- nothing to set the world on fire, no, but borderline QB1 / solid QB2 numbers. Remember, even in 2005 (which, again, is the season I assume you expect next year will resemble), Jake Plummer finished as QB11.

Well Cutler is only entering his 2nd season. He might have Walker but I would argue the duo of Rod Smith in his prime and Ed mcCaffrey was a better duo than the Walker/Marshall(still learning the position) combo he has right now. Scheffler broke his foot, Henry is not much of a pass catching RB...where are all these weapons? I think Denver will run the ball very well and also making a run at the Wildcard, they sure aren't going to beat San Diego...Cutler has lots to learn, he has not had a winning season playing football in a long long time...how will he handle that if they are above .500? Just general questions I have.I could nudge him up a few more yds to 3150 and tweak the TD total but I try and stay within some sort of a round number...will the difference between 3,200 yd sand 3,000 yds make or break where I draft him in a redraft which is what this is about. Very few QBs in the league even throw for 20-22+ TD so I wouldn't pencil him in just yet.

 

[shadyridr]

IMO Cutler starts to make the leap this year. Behind a good offensive mind like Shanahan with enough weapons to throw to and a good running game I think he puts up QB #s in the 10-12 range with the potential for top 5.

3500 yds, 20 tds, 15 ints

 

[LBH]

Im glad people arent seeing greatness in Cutler. I think hes in for a solid season and will be a steal for where you can get him in redraft leagues.

3800yds 26tds 16ints

 

[Banger]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

 

[Jason Wood]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

 

[Banger]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

I agree totally but I think he may have the chance to be a little bit smarter/patient than Favre. I'm certainly not saying I see Cutler as a HOF'er just that he has the huge arm and isn't afraid of throwing the ball in very tight windows. He made some throws in 5 games last than that I've never seen other QB's make in their career. The thing he really has going for him is that he plays with one of the best and smartest coach's in the league and he sees Cutler as a star. He will put him in a position to succeed and he's managed top QB talent in the past.

 

[Jason Wood]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

I agree totally but I think he may have the chance to be a little bit smarter/patient than Favre. I'm certainly not saying I see Cutler as a HOF'er just that he has the huge arm and isn't afraid of throwing the ball in very tight windows. He made some throws in 5 games last than that I've never seen other QB's make in their career. The thing he really has going for him is that he plays with one of the best and smartest coach's in the league and he sees Cutler as a star. He will put him in a position to succeed and he's managed top QB talent in the past.

True, but he's whiffed on top QB talent, too. I'll be honest, I am REALLY on the fence about Cutler right now. I just don't know what to expect. About the only thing I'm sure of in Denver is that, if healthy, Travis Henry is going to be a beast.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

I agree totally but I think he may have the chance to be a little bit smarter/patient than Favre. I'm certainly not saying I see Cutler as a HOF'er just that he has the huge arm and isn't afraid of throwing the ball in very tight windows. He made some throws in 5 games last than that I've never seen other QB's make in their career. The thing he really has going for him is that he plays with one of the best and smartest coach's in the league and he sees Cutler as a star. He will put him in a position to succeed and he's managed top QB talent in the past.

True, but he's whiffed on top QB talent, too. I'll be honest, I am REALLY on the fence about Cutler right now. I just don't know what to expect. About the only thing I'm sure of in Denver is that, if healthy, Travis Henry is going to be a beast.

Which QB has Shanahan whiffed on?He has not drafted a QB in the first round since being in Denver.Griese was the highest drafted QB and he was drafted in the 3rd round, hopefully thats not the "Top" QB talent you are talking about.

 

[SSOG]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

Two points to remember. First off, Jay Cutler played for the Vanderbilt Commodores. I don't know how much SEC football you watched, but the talent gap between the Commodores and the Gators/Tigers/Bulldogs/Tigers/Vols was greater than the talent gap between the best team in the NFL and the worst team in the NFL in any given season. Look at Archie Manning for an example to what happens to a great QB when he's on a bad team- he's widely considered the best QB to ever play for a horrible franchise, and he still finished with a massively upside-down TD:INT ratio- simply because if he didn't make a play, no one would. Cutler throws off of his back foot because he's never had an offensive line that could protect him. Cutler forces throws into small windows because he's never had targets that could actually gain separation. When I look at Cutler, I see a lot of similarities with Jake Plummer- a good QB who played on a bad team and put up terrible numbers, developing lots of bad habits, who then came to a good team and learned to rely on his teammates. Plummer in Arizona had a TD:INT ratio of 90:114. He came to Denver and posted a TD:INT ratio of 71:47 (and that's including his horrible year last year). Denver has a track record with reforming players who think they have to win the game by themselves and getting them to rely more on their teammates.The second point to remember is that Elway was something of a gunslinger, himself, and Elway/Shanahan was a match made in heaven, one of the best QB/Coach combos in league history. Cutler's a bit of a gunslinger, but I think Shanahan definitely views that as a positive.

 

[SSOG]

True, but he's whiffed on top QB talent, too. I'll be honest, I am REALLY on the fence about Cutler right now. I just don't know what to expect. About the only thing I'm sure of in Denver is that, if healthy, Travis Henry is going to be a beast.

Which QB has Shanahan whiffed on?He has not drafted a QB in the first round since being in Denver.Griese was the highest drafted QB and he was drafted in the 3rd round, hopefully thats not the "Top" QB talent you are talking about.

This is true. The only other first-round QBs Shanny has worked with in his career have been Steve Young and John Elway (both in the HoF). Griese was a 3rd rounder (actually, the second-to-last pick in the 3rd, so practically a 4th rounder) who made the pro bowl, put up what was then the second best single-season TD:INT ratio in NFL history, and has 16,000 yards passing, 7.0 career ypa, and 104:80 TD:INT ratio. Here's a list of QBs drafted in the third round between 1984 and 2004- Matt Schaub, Dave Ragone, Chris Simms, Josh McCown, Giovanni Carmazz, Chris Redman, Johnathon Quinn, Bobby Hoying, Stoney Case, Eric Zeier, Billy Joe Hobert, Tommy Hodson, Peter Tom Willis, Neil O'Donnell, Anthony Dilweg, Erik Wilhelm, Chris Chandler, Cody Carlson, Bubby Brister, Hugh Millen, Robbie Bosco, Frank Reich, Jeff Hostetler, Rick McIvor, Jay Schroeder. How many of those luminaries ever made a pro bowl? How many of those luminaries finished with better numbers than Griese currently has? As far as I can tell, the only QB from that list with a better career arc than Griese is Chandler. Schroeder and Hostetler both have essentially identical numbers to Griese, too, although Hostetler at least probably gets the nod for QBing a team to a SB victory. Even if you count all three as better than Griese, he was still better than 88% of all QBs who got drafted in the third round during that 20-year span- hardly a "whiff" by any possible stretch of the imagination. And there's also Plummer- as I mentioned, Shanahan took a former second-rounder with a career 90:114 TD:INT ratio, and turned him into a guy who won over 60% of the games he played in and posted a 71:47 TD:INT ratio (even, famously, getting him to lead the league in the lowest INT%).Now, you can argue whether this was the result of Shanahan's prowess or Kubiak's (and that would be a fair arguement, since I think that Kubiak was more responsible for Plummer than Shanahan was), but you certainly cannot argue that Shanahan has a history of whiffing on QBs. Every QB he's touched so far has outperformed expectations (well, except for Schroeder, who he only had for a year in Oakland).

 

[fridayfrenzy]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

I agree totally but I think he may have the chance to be a little bit smarter/patient than Favre. I'm certainly not saying I see Cutler as a HOF'er just that he has the huge arm and isn't afraid of throwing the ball in very tight windows. He made some throws in 5 games last than that I've never seen other QB's make in their career. The thing he really has going for him is that he plays with one of the best and smartest coach's in the league and he sees Cutler as a star. He will put him in a position to succeed and he's managed top QB talent in the past.

True, but he's whiffed on top QB talent, too. I'll be honest, I am REALLY on the fence about Cutler right now. I just don't know what to expect. About the only thing I'm sure of in Denver is that, if healthy, Travis Henry is going to be a beast.

Which QB has Shanahan whiffed on?He has not drafted a QB in the first round since being in Denver.Griese was the highest drafted QB and he was drafted in the 3rd round, hopefully thats not the "Top" QB talent you are talking about.

Jason Wood, I await your answer.

 

[Jason Wood]

He reminds of a young Favre but more in control. Kind of a cerebral gunslinger. I think he will only be limited by his system. Although as SSOG has pointed out the Bronc's although known as a rushing team also throws the ball around quite a bit. I think he's going to be great.

Banger, I think you hit on my main concern with Cutler. He is reminiscent of Brett Favre. While Favre is a lock Hall of Famer and will end his career at, or near, the top of most of the league's passing records, he's also that guy coaches always say you DON'T want your kids to emulate. Throwing off his back foot, hopping in the pocket, trying to force throws. My point is, Brett Favre is arguably the league's biggest QB anomaly. A tried and true gunslinger who happened to do it right. When I see Cutler play, I see the same gunslinger. That's not (necessarily) a good thing.

I agree totally but I think he may have the chance to be a little bit smarter/patient than Favre. I'm certainly not saying I see Cutler as a HOF'er just that he has the huge arm and isn't afraid of throwing the ball in very tight windows. He made some throws in 5 games last than that I've never seen other QB's make in their career. The thing he really has going for him is that he plays with one of the best and smartest coach's in the league and he sees Cutler as a star. He will put him in a position to succeed and he's managed top QB talent in the past.

True, but he's whiffed on top QB talent, too. I'll be honest, I am REALLY on the fence about Cutler right now. I just don't know what to expect. About the only thing I'm sure of in Denver is that, if healthy, Travis Henry is going to be a beast.

Which QB has Shanahan whiffed on?He has not drafted a QB in the first round since being in Denver.Griese was the highest drafted QB and he was drafted in the 3rd round, hopefully thats not the "Top" QB talent you are talking about.

I am indeed referring to Griese. It's disingenuous to suggest Griese doesn't count because he was a 3rd rounder. Shanahan drafted him, put him into the starting lineup and ultimately made him the highest paid Bronco and one of the highest paid QBs in the league (at the time). To be fair, Shanny hasn't had a ton of QBs to whiff with, so I'm not going to bang the drumbeat on that one. And he did get the best season in Plummer's history out of him. Basically what this gets back to is I'm still REALLY on the fence about Cutler.

 

[Pictus Cat]

Not going to be zipping it all over the place like many think.

3,000 yds...less than 200 yds passing a game

16 TD

10 Int

I don't see great things from the Denver passing game as they have revamped the defense and will be able to stay in games by running the football.

I feel like those numbers are incredibly out of line with Denver's historical passing production. Denver managed to build huge leads and then kill clock with the running game in 2005, but they still put up 3373 passing yards. Historically speaking, under Shanahan, Denver is more likely to pass for more than 4,000 yards (4 times, or 33% of the time)) than it is to pass for under 3300 yards (just twice, including last season).Denver's two sub-3300 passing seasons came in a year when the defense was ranked 8th in points allowed (tied for its fourth-best finish) and in a season where its defense was 21st in points allowed (its second worst finish). Granted, I don't think Cutler is in for a 4,000 yard season here, but I think he has far too many weapons (including the incredible Javon Walker) for Denver to repeat its brutal 3,000 yard performance from last year.

By the way, here are all of Denver's passing TD totals under Shanahan- 27, 26, 27, 32, 16, 28, 26, 21, 19, 27, 18, 20. The only time Denver has finished below 20 TDs was in 1999 (after Elway retired), in 2003 (when Buerlein and Kanell started a large chunk of the season), and in 2005 (which, I'm assuming, is the season you expect next year to most resemble).

I think Cutler is far too talented, and Denver's WRs/TEs are far too talented, for Shanahan to relegate the passing game to such a secondary role. He's already talking about making Javon Walker and the deep pass the focal point of the offense, and has acquired a backup QB in Patrick Ramsey who has backed up that claim (Ramsey's biggest selling point was his big arm, perfect for all the deep passes Denver wants to work back into its playbook). I would project more along the lines of 3400 yards, 22 TDs, and 15 INTs- nothing to set the world on fire, no, but borderline QB1 / solid QB2 numbers. Remember, even in 2005 (which, again, is the season I assume you expect next year will resemble), Jake Plummer finished as QB11.

Well Cutler is only entering his 2nd season. He might have Walker but I would argue the duo of Rod Smith in his prime and Ed mcCaffrey was a better duo than the Walker/Marshall(still learning the position) combo he has right now. Scheffler broke his foot, Henry is not much of a pass catching RB...where are all these weapons? I think Denver will run the ball very well and also making a run at the Wildcard, they sure aren't going to beat San Diego...Cutler has lots to learn, he has not had a winning season playing football in a long long time...how will he handle that if they are above .500? Just general questions I have.I could nudge him up a few more yds to 3150 and tweak the TD total but I try and stay within some sort of a round number...will the difference between 3,200 yd sand 3,000 yds make or break where I draft him in a redraft which is what this is about. Very few QBs in the league even throw for 20-22+ TD so I wouldn't pencil him in just yet.

DGraham, MBell, and Rod Smith will contribute too. Maybe Stokley.

 

[Tubalcane]

While Cutler may throw a lot of TD’s, and a lot of yards, he is just as likely to throw a ton of INT’s . I think it’s imperative that you consider this as well. He’s a gun slinger with a cannon arm…he could possibly be a tad bit overconfident this year. I just don’t think he’s played enough to be able to gauge the speed of veteran NFL defenders. If I’m not mistaken the Broncos have the 4th hardest schedule against the pass. If your league penalizes heavily against the INT, then Cutler may burn you more often than not.

I’m sort of baffled at what his value could be this year. I’m a Broncos fan so I will have to rely on the consensus on this board to cancel the homer effect. My heart says 3700 yards and 27 TD’s, my gut says 3100 yards and 19 TD’s; but I don’t think he’ll throw less than 20 INT’s this year.

 

[Dhizz]

Not going to be zipping it all over the place like many think.3,000 yds...less than 200 yds passing a game16 TD10 IntI don't see great things from the Denver passing game as they have revamped the defense and will be able to stay in games by running the football.

So as a rookie, he had 9 TDs in 5 games (2 tds in 4 straight games to start his career). Which works out to 1.8 TDs per game. Over a season thats 29 TDs.So you're predicting massive regression from his rookie year, and basically cut his passing TDs in half from the pace of 2006. Cutler threw far more TDs per game then Rivers/Leinart, if anything that's the safest part of Cutlers projections. Yards and INTs are the wildcard. Cutler can make any throw, great deep ball, and I see improvement going into year 2, not a massive regression.3,300 yards 25 tds 16 ints.Plummer, Griese had their best years in this system. It's very QB friendly, with great coaching. And Cutler has more talent in his left leg then both those QBs combined.

 

[SSOG]

While Cutler may throw a lot of TD’s, and a lot of yards, he is just as likely to throw a ton of INT’s . I think it’s imperative that you consider this as well. He’s a gun slinger with a cannon arm…he could possibly be a tad bit overconfident this year. I just don’t think he’s played enough to be able to gauge the speed of veteran NFL defenders. If I’m not mistaken the Broncos have the 4th hardest schedule against the pass. If your league penalizes heavily against the INT, then Cutler may burn you more often than not. I’m sort of baffled at what his value could be this year. I’m a Broncos fan so I will have to rely on the consensus on this board to cancel the homer effect. My heart says 3700 yards and 27 TD’s, my gut says 3100 yards and 19 TD’s; but I don’t think he’ll throw less than 20 INT’s this year.

Denver hasn't thrown more than 20 INTS *AS AN ENTIRE TEAM* since 1991. Projecting 20+ INTs for Cutler is a very, very bold projection. Only 7 times in the past 3 years has a QB thrown 20+ INTs. I really don't see it happening.

 

[Tubalcane]

While Cutler may throw a lot of TD’s, and a lot of yards, he is just as likely to throw a ton of INT’s . I think it’s imperative that you consider this as well. He’s a gun slinger with a cannon arm…he could possibly be a tad bit overconfident this year. I just don’t think he’s played enough to be able to gauge the speed of veteran NFL defenders. If I’m not mistaken the Broncos have the 4th hardest schedule against the pass. If your league penalizes heavily against the INT, then Cutler may burn you more often than not. I’m sort of baffled at what his value could be this year. I’m a Broncos fan so I will have to rely on the consensus on this board to cancel the homer effect. My heart says 3700 yards and 27 TD’s, my gut says 3100 yards and 19 TD’s; but I don’t think he’ll throw less than 20 INT’s this year.

Denver hasn't thrown more than 20 INTS *AS AN ENTIRE TEAM* since 1991. Projecting 20+ INTs for Cutler is a very, very bold projection. Only 7 times in the past 3 years has a QB thrown 20+ INTs. I really don't see it happening.

I dearly hope you're right and I'm wrong. But like most things this specutalive comment is just a gut feeling.

 

[chook]

3684 pass yards

27 TD's

12 Int's

108 rush yards

1 rush TD

I think Mike Bell and Travis Henry will be a good deal better than many expect this year (as in very good), taking heaps of pressure off the passing game and letting Cutler flourish.

 

[rzrback77]

While Cutler may throw a lot of TD’s, and a lot of yards, he is just as likely to throw a ton of INT’s . I think it’s imperative that you consider this as well. He’s a gun slinger with a cannon arm…he could possibly be a tad bit overconfident this year. I just don’t think he’s played enough to be able to gauge the speed of veteran NFL defenders. If I’m not mistaken the Broncos have the 4th hardest schedule against the pass. If your league penalizes heavily against the INT, then Cutler may burn you more often than not. I’m sort of baffled at what his value could be this year. I’m a Broncos fan so I will have to rely on the consensus on this board to cancel the homer effect. My heart says 3700 yards and 27 TD’s, my gut says 3100 yards and 19 TD’s; but I don’t think he’ll throw less than 20 INT’s this year.

Denver hasn't thrown more than 20 INTS *AS AN ENTIRE TEAM* since 1991. Projecting 20+ INTs for Cutler is a very, very bold projection. Only 7 times in the past 3 years has a QB thrown 20+ INTs. I really don't see it happening.

Correct, but a little misleading...02 - 20 ints03 - 18 ints04 - 20 ints05 - 7 ints that's a nice year06 - 18 intsLook's like four of the past five years with a lot of ints and close to equal to the TDs

 

[rzrback77]

Jay Cutler is another guy who is difficult for me to project. Denver has had two over 4,000 yard passing seasons in the previous five years. The last two have been less though, with 3,373 yards in 05 and 2,995 in 06.

I am leaning to more of the latter as I expect Rod Smith to continue to decline and I'm not yet sold on Brandon Marshall. Cutler seemed to have a good connection with Scheffler, but with his injury and the addition of Daniel Graham, that connection may be less solid.

I also think that Shannahan has been disappointed in the effectiveness of the running game and will look to establish that momre this year with Henry and allow Jay Cutler to grow into the leadership role.

Cutler averaged 27 pass attempts and 200 yards per game in his five games last year after he took over for Plummer. The Broncos averaged 28 rush attempts in those same five games, with a low of 23 in the last game of the year.

After consideration of all this, I will project a slight increase over 06.

Cutler 273 comps in 448 pass attempts (61%) 3136 yds (7.0 ypa) 22 TDs and 16 ints & 90 yds rushing

 

[SSOG]

While Cutler may throw a lot of TD’s, and a lot of yards, he is just as likely to throw a ton of INT’s . I think it’s imperative that you consider this as well. He’s a gun slinger with a cannon arm…he could possibly be a tad bit overconfident this year. I just don’t think he’s played enough to be able to gauge the speed of veteran NFL defenders. If I’m not mistaken the Broncos have the 4th hardest schedule against the pass. If your league penalizes heavily against the INT, then Cutler may burn you more often than not. I’m sort of baffled at what his value could be this year. I’m a Broncos fan so I will have to rely on the consensus on this board to cancel the homer effect. My heart says 3700 yards and 27 TD’s, my gut says 3100 yards and 19 TD’s; but I don’t think he’ll throw less than 20 INT’s this year.

Denver hasn't thrown more than 20 INTS *AS AN ENTIRE TEAM* since 1991. Projecting 20+ INTs for Cutler is a very, very bold projection. Only 7 times in the past 3 years has a QB thrown 20+ INTs. I really don't see it happening.

Correct, but a little misleading...02 - 20 ints03 - 18 ints04 - 20 ints05 - 7 ints that's a nice year06 - 18 intsLook's like four of the past five years with a lot of ints and close to equal to the TDs

I don't think it's misleading at all. I have nothing against projecting 20 INTs at the high-side of one's expectations, but projecting 20 INTs as the low side isn't reflective of the realities of the situation, in my mind.

 

[Tubalcane]

I also think that Shannahan has been disappointed in the effectiveness of the running game and will look to establish that momre this year with Henry and allow Jay Cutler to grow into the leadership role.

It has appeared to me that for the last 3 years the rest of the NFL (except the Chiefs of course) has started to adapt their Defense to the Bronco’s run game. This probably was even happening when Portis was there but his explosiveness and talent covered it up a bit. I started to notice last year that Shanny was using a lot less of the cut back I initially thought it was because his RB’s just weren’t talented enough to run it effectively, now I believe that it was a combination of low talent and adaptation from opponents Def. The only logical way to counter the above is to 1. Acquire better talent [check – Travis Henry]2. Modify the run game 3. Throw deep more to take pressure out of the box. Henry will definitely help. Modifying the run game is what Shanny is so great at. I noticed last year he started incorporating more FB runs, reverses, and end a rounds. I think he’ll still incorporate more of these gadget plays, and some tweaks; nothing majorThrowing deep more will definitely happen more this year. They’ve admitted as much. If Brandon Marshall comes along, then Cutler’s TD total will be huge this year. For me the thing I’m going to look at is how Marshall progresses during camp. He’s big, fast, and will demand attention; invariably drawing coverage away from Javon Walker. If he doesn’t progress then I think Walker will be draped with coverage all year, and Cutler’s numbers will not be as high. So to comment on the quote…I think the Broncos will throw more this year and deep, and the rushing game will improve drastically. Anyway…those are just a few random Cutler related thoughts I thought I’d throw out there for discussion.

 

[rascal]

Jay Cutler is another guy who is difficult for me to project. Denver has had two over 4,000 yard passing seasons in the previous five years. The last two have been less though, with 3,373 yards in 05 and 2,995 in 06.I am leaning to more of the latter as I expect Rod Smith to continue to decline and I'm not yet sold on Brandon Marshall. Cutler seemed to have a good connection with Scheffler, but with his injury and the addition of Daniel Graham, that connection may be less solid.I also think that Shannahan has been disappointed in the effectiveness of the running game and will look to establish that momre this year with Henry and allow Jay Cutler to grow into the leadership role.Cutler averaged 27 pass attempts and 200 yards per game in his five games last year after he took over for Plummer. The Broncos averaged 28 rush attempts in those same five games, with a low of 23 in the last game of the year.After consideration of all this, I will project a slight increase over 06.Cutler 273 comps in 448 pass attempts (61%) 3136 yds (7.0 ypa) 22 TDs and 16 ints & 90 yds rushing

Whoever starts at #2 WR will put up nice numbers, and their #3 (marshall or smith) will be solid. Don't discount rod smith guys, the guy was playing at 80% the entire year last year due to his hip injury (which apparently he shouldn't have even been playing on). He has already stated that he expects to produce numbers similar to what he posted in 2005. If that is the case with Walker, Marshall, Graham, and Henry/Bell you can expect the Cutler to put up some solid numbers.I wouldn't put Cutler in the top 6 QB's, but if you follow my drafting fantasy strategy of targeting two QB's after round 7 that will put up solid numbers with a good chance of putting up top 10 stats, I think Cutler is an excellent choice.I expect 3300 yards, 20 TD's, and 15 INT's which would have put him in the top 10 last year.

 

[SSOG]

It has appeared to me that for the last 3 years the rest of the NFL (except the Chiefs of course) has started to adapt their Defense to the Bronco’s run game. This probably was even happening when Portis was there but his explosiveness and talent covered it up a bit. I started to notice last year that Shanny was using a lot less of the cut back I initially thought it was because his RB’s just weren’t talented enough to run it effectively, now I believe that it was a combination of low talent and adaptation from opponents Def.

The rest of the league isn't catching up to Denver's system, because there's nothing to catch up to. Everyone knows exactly what Denver is doing, the reason they can't defend it is because Denver runs it to perfection. Think of it like the WCO, or the Indy Offense, or the Tampa Bay Defense from 2002. It's simple, mostly vanilla, and totally unsurprising. Everyone knows what's coming, but they can't defeat it because it's so fundamentally sound (not based on trickeration or surprise), and because the players have been doing it so long that they really do run it to perfection (or as close as it is for a team of 11 players to achieve).Most of the reduction in cutback running last year was because of the decline of the passing game, since the run and the pass share a symbiotic relationship in Denver. When the pass is strong, then the run starts to get going, which frees up a little bit more room for the pass, which opens some room for the run, and so on, and so forth. With Plummer's meltdown last year, teams stopped playing off of him, and he stopped getting outside of the pocket, which meant the cutback wouldn't have been nearly as effective even if they did run it more. In Denver, as goes the passing game, so goes the running game (and vice versa).

 

[Exile]

As a kind of parallel thought to this discussion...does anyone have historical FF numbers for 2nd year QBs?

Some people have Cutler as a possible top 10 QB (Dodds has him at #9). I'm curious how many "sophomore" QBs have done that.

 

[SSOG]

As a kind of parallel thought to this discussion...does anyone have historical FF numbers for 2nd year QBs? Some people have Cutler as a possible top 10 QB (Dodds has him at #9). I'm curious how many "sophomore" QBs have done that.

Off the top of my head, I can think of a lot. I mean, let's just start with the guys who were top 10 last year.#1- Peyton Manning. He finished 9th in his first season and 4th in his second.#2- Drew Brees. Didn't crack the top 10 until his 5th year.#3- Marc Bulger. Ranked 6th in his second season (in 15 games).#4- Michael Vick. Ranked 3rd in his second season (in 15 games).#5- Carson Palmer. Ranked 1st in his second season as a starter (3rd season overall, though).#6- Jon Kitna. Ranked 9th in his third season (in 15 games).#7- Tom Brady. Ranked 9th in his second season as a starter (3rd season overall, though).#8- Brett Favre. Ranked 7th in his second season.#9- Phillip Rivers. Ranked 9th in his second season as a starter (3rd season overall, though).#10- Ben Roethlisberger. Ranked 10th in his third season.In other words, of the 10 most "elite" QBs in the league last year, 90% cracked the top 10 within three years of entering the league (everyone but Drew Brees), and 70% ranked in the top 10 during their second season as a starter. Historically, elite QBs have a strong history of becoming fantasy starters extremely quickly, and typically if you haven't made it in the first three years, you aren't going to make it (Brees notwithstanding).If you look at the 2005 top 10, then 50% (Peyton, Eli, Bledsoe, Vick, and Trent Green) made the top 10 within their first 2 seasons, another 20% (Brady and Palmer) made the list in their second season as a starter but third season overall, and 30% (Kerry Collins, Drew Brees, and Matt Hasselbeck) were "late bloomers".If you look at the 2004 top 10, then a whopping 80% (Peyton, Culpepper, McNabb, Green, Plummer, Favre, Aaron Brooks, and Marc Bulger) all made the top 10 within their first two seasons in the league, another 10% (Tom Brady) made it in his second season as a starter (3rd full season in the league), and the last guy, Jake Delhomme, also made it in his second season as a starter (which happened to be his 5th in the league).If you look at the 2003 top 10, then 60% (Peyton, Culpepper, Green, Bulger, Brooks, Favre) cracked the top 10 within 2 seasons in the league, another two (McNair and Kitna) made it in his second season as a starter (third season overall), and 20% (Hasselbeck, Brad Johnson) were late bloomers.If you look at the 2002 top 10, then 70% (Peyton, Culpepper, Vick, Bledsoe, Brooks, Green, Garcia) cracked the top 10 within 2 seasons in the league, another two (McNair and Brady) made it in their second season as a starter (third season overall), and only one (Rich Gannon) was a late bloomer.Basically, this is not a 1-year aberration here. Historically speaking, if you think that Jay Cutler is *EVER* going to make the jump and become a top-10 QB, even if only for a single season, then this is the year he's most likely to do it. Over the last 5 years, out of the 50 top 10 QB finishes, 31 belonged to a QB who finished in the top 10 within 2 seasons of entering the league (62%), and a remarkable 41 of the 50 finishes belonged to a QB who was top-10 by the end of his second season as a starter (that's 82%), meaning only 18% of top-10 QBs over that span have been late bloomers.Once again, if you think that Jay Cutler is *EVER* in his entire career going to finish in the top 10, for any reason, ever... then historical numbers suggest that he's four times as likely to crack the top 10 this season as he is to miss it.

 

[Exile]

#1- Peyton Manning. He finished 9th in his first season and 4th in his second.#2- Drew Brees. Didn't crack the top 10 until his 5th year.#3- Marc Bulger. Ranked 6th in his second season (in 15 games).#4- Michael Vick. Ranked 3rd in his second season (in 15 games).#5- Carson Palmer. Ranked 1st in his second season as a starter (3rd season overall, though).#6- Jon Kitna. Ranked 9th in his third season (in 15 games).#7- Tom Brady. Ranked 9th in his second season as a starter (3rd season overall, though).#8- Brett Favre. Ranked 7th in his second season.#9- Phillip Rivers. Ranked 9th in his second season as a starter (3rd season overall, though).#10- Ben Roethlisberger. Ranked 10th in his third season.

A couple of inaccuracies:1) Bulger was 6th in 2003, his 3rd with the Rams (and that doesn't count the 2000 season he spent in New Orleans's Training Camp and one the Rams and Falcons practice squads).2) 2006 was Rivers's 1st season starting, not his second.That aside, this is an interesting list. But looking at it, I think it argues more that Cutler is most likely to be top 10 NEXT year, not this one. More than half the guys listed (Bulger, Palmer, Kitna, Brady, Rivers, and Roethlisberger) made in their 3rd year overall. I know you're listing them because it was their 2nd year starting, but to me that's not the same as 2nd year in the league (which is what I was refering to). For most guys, the 1st year is just a blur, they start making real strides in year 2 and they put it together in year 3.This coincides with what I believe has been the general school of thought in the NFL...that year 3 tends to be the break out year for QBs and that the exceptions to that are the TRULY special players: Manning, Favre, Marino, etc...I'm certainly not saying Cutler won't be top 10 (there are enough non-future-HOFers who have done it)...but I don't agree that this is the year he's most likely to do it.ETA: You've also mentioned guys like Aaron Brooks, Trent Green, and Jeff Garcia as guys who "cracked the top 10 within 2 seasons in the league", but Brooks took 3 years (He was in GB in 1999), Green was in his 5th year (he did nothing with SD in 93 and WAS from 95-97 before breaking out in 1998) and Jeff Garcia was a CFL Grey Cup MVP with like 5 years experience before he came to SF.

 

[Jason Wood]

This "sophomore" argument is kind of specious in my opinion. It fails to consider how much game time a player has logged, and also what kind of role they played during preparation time. Cutler will have the advantage of first team reps and coaching attention in training camp for the first time. As will Tarvaris Jackson, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Tony Romo and possibly Brodie Croyle.

 

[moleculo]

This "sophomore" argument is kind of specious in my opinion. It fails to consider how much game time a player has logged, and also what kind of role they played during preparation time. Cutler will have the advantage of first team reps and coaching attention in training camp for the first time. As will Tarvaris Jackson, Vince Young, Matt Leinart, Tony Romo and possibly Brodie Croyle.

and Jason Campbell.