Player Spotlight: Joe Addai (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Joseph Addai, RB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Joe Addai Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Tau837]

Previous post on Addai:

...As for Addai, here is an interesting look at his performance:1st 8 games: 105/490/2 rushing (4.7 ypc), 19/144/1 receiving (7.6 ypr) on 26 targets, 10.2 fppg (no PPR)2nd 8 games: 121/591/5 rushing (4.9 ypc), 21/181/0 receiving (8.6 ypr) on 24 targets, 13.4 fppg (no PPR)4 playoff games: 76/294/2 rushing (3.9 ypc), 22/118/0 receiving (5.4 ypr) on 23 targets, 13.3 fppg (no PPR)First off, he averaged double figure fantasy points in each stretch... very solid. Secondly, look at how he improved his ypc and ypr in the second half as his workload increased, albeit slightly.Also, look at how his carries and targets went up in the playoffs:13.1 carries per game in 1st 8 games, 15.1 carries per game in second 8 games, 19 carries per game in the playoffs3.3 targets per game in 1st 8 games, 3.0 targets per game in second 8 games, 5.8 targets per game in the playoffsCould this carry over? Probably not at these levels--19 carries and 5.8 targets per game would be 304 carries and 93 receptions... but his usage could certainly go up given the success he had this year, even if Rhodes stays.ETA: For those who might criticize his ypc and ypr in the playoffs, I meant to mention that he played KC, BAL, NE, CHI. Given that, his performance is pretty impressive IMO.

Obviously, this was all *with* Rhodes, so I think Addai can provide great value even if Indy brings in someone else.Speaking of Rhodes, let's look at the combined regular season totals of Rhodes and Addai last year:413/1722/12 rushing76/576/1 receivingAs of now, without any obvious candidate to share the load, I'd have to go with:285/1250/8 rushing56/440/1 receivingThat is in most cases below 75% of the combined total of Rhodes and Addai last season, so there is upside there. I'm assuming Indy will have someone to claim 25% or more of the load. But if they decide Addai can handle the load a la Edgerrin James, you're looking at a top 5 RB here.This would have ranked him around RB8 last season, and he finished as RB11 as a rookie sharing time... So I think this is a reasonably conservative estimiate, barring injury.I'm targeting him.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Addai is not the most talented back but he is in one of the best situations.

300/1400/10

50/400/2

350 touches 1,800 yds and 12 TD...yeah!

 

[Jon_Moore]

I'll agree he's not the most talented, but it is indeed a great situatiion. No one's going to stack the box against him, the offense should score plenty of points, and there's no one to vulture goal line touches. He can block very well, so he'll be in on 3rd downs. I would imagine he can handle the load, Indy would have gotten more in FA if they thought he couldn't.

354 carries

1485 yards

9 rushing tds

46 recepetions

330 yards

2 tds

 

[kurtrudder]

I'll echo those sentiments, average talent......awesome situation. I'll certainly target him in redraft leagues this year. He has no one on the roster to take away significant touches from him unless the Colts sign a free agent like Chris Brown....or of course Indy see something in DeDe Dorsey that the rest of the world hasn't

310 carries

1450 yds

10 rushing TD's

50 catches

450 yds

3 receiving TD's

 

[pizzatyme]

I love how many folks say Addai is just average. The dude is a bull. He has a nice initial burst and can make a player miss. even when there is contact, he delivers a blow. He was the #11 RB last season while splitting carries.

Maybe it's just the homer in me, but I see Addai as a top 5 RB this season with talent and opportunity as the main reasons.

Rushing 1550/9

Receiving 350/ 2

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I love how many folks say Addai is just average. The dude is a bull. He has a nice initial burst and can make a player miss. even when there is contact, he delivers a blow. He was the #11 RB last season while splitting carries.Maybe it's just the homer in me, but I see Addai as a top 5 RB this season with talent and opportunity as the main reasons.Rushing 1550/9Receiving 350/ 2

PT, our numbers are almost on par with yours. I have 1,800 total yds and 12 TD...the thing is Addai is not the most talented RB in the league. He isn't a scrub but I don't see the vision of an LT here...the power of a LJ or SJax, or the pure raw speed of a Reggie Bush or Clinton Portis...so the point is there are a lot of RB in the talent pool of Joseph Addai...but not many have Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne surrounding them...in fact none of them do. But the opp is what is so alluring if Addai and the major reason I took him at 1.07 in a Dynasty start up last week. I feel like he can produce numbers maybe not as strong as the 1st two seasons Edge put up...but he can certainly rack 100 yds a week, get some catches, and score 8-10 TD minimum...you can't say that about a lot of RB in the NFL.

 

[pizzatyme]

I love how many folks say Addai is just average. The dude is a bull. He has a nice initial burst and can make a player miss. even when there is contact, he delivers a blow. He was the #11 RB last season while splitting carries.

Maybe it's just the homer in me, but I see Addai as a top 5 RB this season with talent and opportunity as the main reasons.

Rushing 1550/9

Receiving 350/ 2

PT, our numbers are almost on par with yours. I have 1,800 total yds and 12 TD...the thing is Addai is not the most talented RB in the league. He isn't a scrub but I don't see the vision of an LT here...the power of a LJ or SJax, or the pure raw speed of a Reggie Bush or Clinton Portis...so the point is there are a lot of RB in the talent pool of Joseph Addai...but not many have Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison, and Reggie Wayne surrounding them...in fact none of them do. But the opp is what is so alluring if Addai and the major reason I took him at 1.07 in a Dynasty start up last week. I feel like he can produce numbers maybe not as strong as the 1st two seasons Edge put up...but he can certainly rack 100 yds a week, get some catches, and score 8-10 TD minimum...you can't say that about a lot of RB in the NFL.

I understand the sentiment, but I believe, of the runners you mentioned, Addai is a nice blend of each. Only time will tell, but I truly see a guy who runs with power like SJax, he made some exceptional cuts last season in traffic ala LT, and has has enough speed to the second level to compare to a Portis.I'm not saying he is on any of their levels, but he possesses all of these characteristics plus is a great pass blocker. All leading to a 3 down back opportunity.

After 1 season, I would definitely put him on par with Edge. I wouldn't hesitate to take him 3rd in a redraft this season. And easily at 1.05 or later in a startup dynasty.

The only part I question about what you say is that there are a lot of players in the Addai talent pool, I'm not so sure of that. Again, only time will tell, but this is a dominant runner in the making IMO.

 

[zamboni]

I love how many folks say Addai is just average.

I was thinking the same thing. Just because he may not have the all-world skills of LT or the explosiveness of Portis doesn't make him a mere average RB. There's a reason he was drafted in the 1st round by a team that just lost its Edge (pun intended). While he doesn't seem to stand out in one particular area, he's an all-around solid football player. And as others have said, that alone will keep him on the field.310-1300-1050-450-2

 

[djcolts]

I still expect the Colts to limit Addai's carries to 18 to 20 a game. I don't know if it is De De Dorsey, or UDFA Harvard RB Clifton Dawson, or if they sign someone else, but one way or another other backs will get 10 carries a game.

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

So, I'm going to be the slight bear here:

288 carries

1240 yards rushing

7 TDs rushing

45 catches

340 yards receiving

1 TD receiving

 

[KING]

addai is definitely an above average back. he may not be LT, but who is. i think he can break top 5 in PPR.

310 1325 4.3 10 and 57 475 8.3 2

 

[shadyridr]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.

240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

 

[BigRed]

While he doesn't seem to stand out in one particular area, he's an all-around solid football player. And as others have said, that alone will keep him on the field.

Exactly. How many touches he'll get is the key. Obviously more than last year, but will he be EJ-like (almost all) or will they throw more than a couple token touches to.....er whoever?Not amazing but barring injury to him or Manning shiver he should at least be one of the safest RB1 picks available.

 

[switz]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr	44	174	4.02nd Qtr	63	287	4.63rd Qtr	54	350	6.54th Qtr	65	270	4.2Rush Att. 1-5	78	344	4.4Rush Att. 6-10	70	397	5.7Rush Att. 11-15	51	226	4.4Rush Att. 16-20	22	78	3.5Rush Att. 21-25	5	31	6.2

I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

Love this guy for dynasty and redraft.

300 carries 1350 yards 12 TD"s

58 receptions 470 yards 2 TD's

 

[djcolts]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr	44	174	4.02nd Qtr	63	287	4.63rd Qtr	54	350	6.54th Qtr	65	270	4.2Rush Att. 1-5	78	344	4.4Rush Att. 6-10	70	397	5.7Rush Att. 11-15	51	226	4.4Rush Att. 16-20	22	78	3.5Rush Att. 21-25	5	31	6.2

I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

The 4th quarter is also when offenses can become more predictable, and they try to run out the clock by running the ball and the D would expect that.

 

[switz]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr	44	174	4.02nd Qtr	63	287	4.63rd Qtr	54	350	6.54th Qtr	65	270	4.2Rush Att. 1-5	78	344	4.4Rush Att. 6-10	70	397	5.7Rush Att. 11-15	51	226	4.4Rush Att. 16-20	22	78	3.5Rush Att. 21-25	5	31	6.2

I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

The 4th quarter is also when offenses can become more predictable, and they try to run out the clock by running the ball and the D would expect that.

So what are you trying to say? First you say Addai got all his yardage late in the game after Rhodes wore them down. Now you say that's not the case because the defense was prepared to stop him. You are contradicting yourself. Either Addai benefiitted by being fresh later in the game or he didn't.Well here's a few more stats to disprove your latest theory:

Ahead by 15-21	18	115	6.4Ahead by 8-14	23	106	4.6Ahead by 1-7	64	339	5.3

That's right... Addai's averages were BETTER when the team was playing from ahead and protecting the lead. In fact his worst YPC was when the team was down by at least two scores, where defenses are usually the most susceptible to long runs off draw plays.With a screen name like djcolts, we would expect you to have watched a few colts games and know that what you are saying is factually incorrect.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I would not be surprised if this guy is this years version of Steven Jackson. Not one bit.

And from the looks of all the previous posts, many seem to think along the same lines.

Edge always had 330-390 carries when healthy.

I think the Colts lean on him in the same fashion and plan on doing so.

4.4 a carry seems to be about average for Edge pre and post injury. As Addai with more carries should/could move down from the 4.78 he posted in '06.

340 carries - 4.4 average - 1760 yards.

Edge always had between 40-60 catches for the most part.

Addai had 40 catches as rookie in split time. (60 incl playoffs)

Rec 55 - 7.7 average - 423 yards.

I think Dungy and Moore like/enjoy stats on their players.

It depends on who gets the early season scores between Addai and Peyton. Because that trend will continue afterwards.

Most RBs... if they have somethng special to offer... do so early on.

13 rush tds - 5 rec tds - 18 TDs

Which would make him the #3-5 overall RB. Battling with Gore and LJ. Draft accordingly.

 

[djcolts]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr	44	174	4.02nd Qtr	63	287	4.63rd Qtr	54	350	6.54th Qtr	65	270	4.2Rush Att. 1-5	78	344	4.4Rush Att. 6-10	70	397	5.7Rush Att. 11-15	51	226	4.4Rush Att. 16-20	22	78	3.5Rush Att. 21-25	5	31	6.2

I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

The 4th quarter is also when offenses can become more predictable, and they try to run out the clock by running the ball and the D would expect that.

So what are you trying to say? First you say Addai got all his yardage late in the game after Rhodes wore them down. Now you say that's not the case because the defense was prepared to stop him. You are contradicting yourself. Either Addai benefiitted by being fresh later in the game or he didn't.Well here's a few more stats to disprove your latest theory:

Ahead by 15-21	18	115	6.4Ahead by 8-14	23	106	4.6Ahead by 1-7	64	339	5.3

That's right... Addai's averages were BETTER when the team was playing from ahead and protecting the lead. In fact his worst YPC was when the team was down by at least two scores, where defenses are usually the most susceptible to long runs off draw plays.With a screen name like djcolts, we would expect you to have watched a few colts games and know that what you are saying is factually incorrect.

I'm not contradicting myself. The Colts themselves said that Addai benefitted from coming off the bench after Rhodes told Addai how the defense was playing them. I'm not just saying this for my amusement. Why was Rhodes a world beater in the playoffs coming off the bench and a below-average back during the regular season as a starter, especially given the fact that the defenses in the playoffs were better than the average D the Colts played during the regular season?

 

[shadyridr]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Im assuming A) Their defense is bad (perhaps even worse than last year) causing to even more passing & B) I think its fairly obvious the Colts sign a backup RB after June 1 cuts. They need one desperately. If that backup RB steals another 100 or so carries over the year that leads to 80 less rushing attempts due to the defense. Good thing about my projection is its basically a floor for Addai. I am very high on him this year but I want to temper my expectations a bit and reducing his carries does so IMO.

 

[David Yudkin]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Im assuming A) Their defense is bad (perhaps even worse than last year) causing to even more passing & B) I think its fairly obvious the Colts sign a backup RB after June 1 cuts. They need one desperately. If that backup RB steals another 100 or so carries over the year that leads to 80 less rushing attempts due to the defense. Good thing about my projection is its basically a floor for Addai. I am very high on him this year but I want to temper my expectations a bit and reducing his carries does so IMO.

If their defense is not great, it's in their best interest to try and keep the offense on the field. From 00-04, they had 392, 401, 390, 419, and 392 rushing attempts by RBs. That's pretty consistent and similar to the past couple years. I'm guessing the total number of attemtps won't change all that much.As for bringing in another RB, who else is available other than Brown or Dillon of any note.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

As for bringing in another RB, who else is available other than Brown or Dillon of any note.

Rhodes had 6 years in that system. And still had 40 less carries then Addai.As such it doesnt matter who they bring in, they wont sniff more then 100 carries.

 

[BigRed]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

It's hard to say how the Colts will approach this. I'd like to think they go back to having one guy being "the man" with token carries from guys who don't deserve much more, but they really liked the 1a/1b thing last year, so if they feel they really have a backup worth a flip (why I've no idea), don't be too surprised at under 300 carries for Addai this year.

 

[Tau837]

I would not be surprised if this guy is this years version of Steven Jackson. Not one bit.

And from the looks of all the previous posts, many seem to think along the same lines.

Edge always had 330-390 carries when healthy.

I think the Colts lean on him in the same fashion and plan on doing so.

4.4 a carry seems to be about average for Edge pre and post injury. As Addai with more carries should/could move down from the 4.78 he posted in '06.

340 carries - 4.4 average - 1760 yards.

Edge always had between 40-60 catches for the most part.

Addai had 40 catches as rookie in split time. (60 incl playoffs)

Rec 55 - 7.7 average - 423 yards.

I think Dungy and Moore like/enjoy stats on their players.

It depends on who gets the early season scores between Addai and Peyton. Because that trend will continue afterwards.

Most RBs... if they have somethng special to offer... do so early on.

13 rush tds - 5 rec tds - 18 TDs

Which would make him the #3-5 overall RB. Battling with Gore and LJ. Draft accordingly.

If 2183 total yards and 18 TDs might only be the #5 RB, I'd like to see your other projections. I guess somebody had to be the high side outlier...

 

[Tau837]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Im assuming A) Their defense is bad (perhaps even worse than last year) causing to even more passing & B) I think its fairly obvious the Colts sign a backup RB after June 1 cuts. They need one desperately. If that backup RB steals another 100 or so carries over the year that leads to 80 less rushing attempts due to the defense. Good thing about my projection is its basically a floor for Addai. I am very high on him this year but I want to temper my expectations a bit and reducing his carries does so IMO.

If their defense is not great, it's in their best interest to try and keep the offense on the field. From 00-04, they had 392, 401, 390, 419, and 392 rushing attempts by RBs. That's pretty consistent and similar to the past couple years. I'm guessing the total number of attemtps won't change all that much.As for bringing in another RB, who else is available other than Brown or Dillon of any note.

David, are you going to post a projection?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Im assuming A) Their defense is bad (perhaps even worse than last year) causing to even more passing & B) I think its fairly obvious the Colts sign a backup RB after June 1 cuts. They need one desperately. If that backup RB steals another 100 or so carries over the year that leads to 80 less rushing attempts due to the defense. Good thing about my projection is its basically a floor for Addai. I am very high on him this year but I want to temper my expectations a bit and reducing his carries does so IMO.

If their defense is not great, it's in their best interest to try and keep the offense on the field. From 00-04, they had 392, 401, 390, 419, and 392 rushing attempts by RBs. That's pretty consistent and similar to the past couple years. I'm guessing the total number of attemtps won't change all that much.As for bringing in another RB, who else is available other than Brown or Dillon of any note.

David, are you going to post a projection?

well?

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Yudkin makes a diving catch in the outfield...nothing gets by that man!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Im assuming A) Their defense is bad (perhaps even worse than last year) causing to even more passing & B) I think its fairly obvious the Colts sign a backup RB after June 1 cuts. They need one desperately. If that backup RB steals another 100 or so carries over the year that leads to 80 less rushing attempts due to the defense. Good thing about my projection is its basically a floor for Addai. I am very high on him this year but I want to temper my expectations a bit and reducing his carries does so IMO.

If their defense is not great, it's in their best interest to try and keep the offense on the field. From 00-04, they had 392, 401, 390, 419, and 392 rushing attempts by RBs. That's pretty consistent and similar to the past couple years. I'm guessing the total number of attemtps won't change all that much.As for bringing in another RB, who else is available other than Brown or Dillon of any note.

David, are you going to post a projection?

He is much more of an observationalist. The stats are implied with is posts and I would assume 300-320 carries and 40-60 catches are probably what he is thinking...problem is the leap form last year's stats. Its a pretty big jump and I am guessing that makes him slightly uncomfortable.

 

[fridayfrenzy]

I think Addai is very talented. I saw the guy alot last year and he runs hard, doesnt go down on the 1st hit, and has enough moves to make defenders miss. Couple that with the fact that he plays in a phenomenal offense and for a QB who doesnt mind dumping it off to the RB and you got a potential stud. I think he will be a huge factor in the passing game which will certainly help his numbers out a ton. Should be a RB1 but I think he slips and should be GREAT value as RB2.240 att, 1100 yds, 8 tds, 50 rec, 450 yds, 2 tds

Here's the question I would pose. You have Addai at 240 rushing attempts. The Colts have had 416 and 420 RB rushing attempts the past two seasons. Do those roughly 180 rushing attempts just disappear? The Colts backups are currently DeDe Dorsey, Kenton Keith, and Clifton Dawson.

Im assuming A) Their defense is bad (perhaps even worse than last year) causing to even more passing & B) I think its fairly obvious the Colts sign a backup RB after June 1 cuts. They need one desperately. If that backup RB steals another 100 or so carries over the year that leads to 80 less rushing attempts due to the defense. Good thing about my projection is its basically a floor for Addai. I am very high on him this year but I want to temper my expectations a bit and reducing his carries does so IMO.

If their defense is not great, it's in their best interest to try and keep the offense on the field. From 00-04, they had 392, 401, 390, 419, and 392 rushing attempts by RBs. That's pretty consistent and similar to the past couple years. I'm guessing the total number of attemtps won't change all that much.As for bringing in another RB, who else is available other than Brown or Dillon of any note.

David, are you going to post a projection?

He is much more of an observationalist. The stats are implied with is posts and I would assume 300-320 carries and 40-60 catches are probably what he is thinking...problem is the leap form last year's stats. Its a pretty big jump and I am guessing that makes him slightly uncomfortable.

It also seems David also takes a devil's advocate approach to some things in this forum to make people think or answer to their own projections.If someone projects Addai with low carries, he will call them out, but could also see him calling someone out who is projecting great things for Addai and bring up stats about how many RBs have had their carries increased that much in back to back years, or something along those lines. He does a great job as staff to encourage discussion on a topic by doing this.

 

[David Yudkin]

Yes, I will post a projection (just not right this second). I've been gone most of the afternoon. I have him ranked 6th so I obviously think he will see plenty of action.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

I would not be surprised if this guy is this years version of Steven Jackson. Not one bit.

And from the looks of all the previous posts, many seem to think along the same lines.

Edge always had 330-390 carries when healthy.

I think the Colts lean on him in the same fashion and plan on doing so.

4.4 a carry seems to be about average for Edge pre and post injury. As Addai with more carries should/could move down from the 4.78 he posted in '06.

340 carries - 4.4 average - 1760 yards.

Edge always had between 40-60 catches for the most part.

Addai had 40 catches as rookie in split time. (60 incl playoffs)

Rec 55 - 7.7 average - 423 yards.

I think Dungy and Moore like/enjoy stats on their players.

It depends on who gets the early season scores between Addai and Peyton. Because that trend will continue afterwards.

Most RBs... if they have somethng special to offer... do so early on.

13 rush tds - 5 rec tds - 18 TDs

Which would make him the #3-5 overall RB. Battling with Gore and LJ. Draft accordingly.

If 2183 total yards and 18 TDs might only be the #5 RB, I'd like to see your other projections. I guess somebody had to be the high side outlier...

I stated last week I would have a hard time not taking him after LT and SJ went.I believe his stats would be right along the lines of LJ. But... LJ has some serious history to back up his ranking.

Where Gore does not have the TD history and its possible that Indy will throw 44 TDs thus Addai gets 12 not 18 (read my qualifier). I said 3-5. Not just 5.

If Gore increases his TDs by a few and Johnson repeats what he did the last 2 seasons I see no issue with the 3-5 placement.

 

[Addai's Adidas]

It is reasonable to estimate that Indy will be up late in games and they will run it out with Addai. It is also reasonable to estimate that when they are down and passing Manning will have no problem dumping it off for 8 yards a pop, again to Addai. Also don't forget he gets Houston and Tennessee twice a year.

He'll be my keeper for $13 in $100 cap league and I'm geeked.

I worry we are subject to groupthink but here goes:

Conservative estimate (with injuries): 1100 rush 8 TD's, 150 rec, 2 TD's

Completely doable (healthy all year): 1400 rush , 16 TD's, 300 rec, 5 TD's.

 

[Rev]

Addai has a long way to go to prove himself as a feature NFL back, but he's in a tremendous position to do exactly that. He's shown the Colts that he's a well-rounded player with a very good head on his shoulders, who can run with good power and vision, pass block, and catch the ball extremely well. All of this translates to his being on the field for 80-90% of the snaps an offense that will have few 3 and outs, which should get Addai many touches. The obvious variable is durability for a guy who has never had to play the workhorse role.

310/1330/9 (4.3 average)

53/650/1

 

[switz]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr 44 174 4.02nd Qtr 63 287 4.63rd Qtr 54 350 6.54th Qtr 65 270 4.2Rush Att. 1-5 78 344 4.4Rush Att. 6-10 70 397 5.7Rush Att. 11-15 51 226 4.4Rush Att. 16-20 22 78 3.5Rush Att. 21-25 5 31 6.2I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

The 4th quarter is also when offenses can become more predictable, and they try to run out the clock by running the ball and the D would expect that.

So what are you trying to say? First you say Addai got all his yardage late in the game after Rhodes wore them down. Now you say that's not the case because the defense was prepared to stop him. You are contradicting yourself. Either Addai benefiitted by being fresh later in the game or he didn't.Well here's a few more stats to disprove your latest theory:

Ahead by 15-21 18 115 6.4Ahead by 8-14 23 106 4.6Ahead by 1-7 64 339 5.3That's right... Addai's averages were BETTER when the team was playing from ahead and protecting the lead. In fact his worst YPC was when the team was down by at least two scores, where defenses are usually the most susceptible to long runs off draw plays.With a screen name like djcolts, we would expect you to have watched a few colts games and know that what you are saying is factually incorrect.

I'm not contradicting myself. The Colts themselves said that Addai benefitted from coming off the bench after Rhodes told Addai how the defense was playing them. I'm not just saying this for my amusement. Why was Rhodes a world beater in the playoffs coming off the bench and a below-average back during the regular season as a starter, especially given the fact that the defenses in the playoffs were better than the average D the Colts played during the regular season?

The problem is the first tiem you said it was because Rhodes tired the defense down. That's not what the Colt's said at all. They said Addai benefitted from Rhodes helping him see how the defense was playing against the run.I don't think Rhodes looked like a world beater in the playoffs. He had a couple long runs, 1 per game really. But he didn't look all that great overall.

 

[Family Matters]

This to me is a no brainer and I am surprised some feel the Colts are a RBBC team. This is 1 of those situations where it quite obvious he's the man. They only did that 1 year and they allowed Rhodes to leave nor did they draft one so you would have to think they are planning to make Addai their feature back. In fact they said so. But consider:

1. He was drafted in round 1 after letting James go.

2. Addai performed extrememly well as a rookie.

3. They allowed Rhodes to walk.

4. They did not draft a RB in the draft nor have they acquired one via free agency. They may yet add a guy for experience and depth but that's all. Anyone worth having is already signed so don't expect that to change.

Teams generally cannot afford to pay 2 backs like RB1's. It's a cap nightmare for them and that's why it doesn't happen more. Indy has a track record of drafting good backs (Faulk, James & Addai for example) and a great track record for fantasy production. We've seen nothing to think that's changed.

Consider also the following:

1. Talent. Some have said Addai isn't the most talented RB. But he doesn't need to be. He's plenty good enough and he's proven that. So he meets the talent criteria.

2. Opportunity. 228 carries plus 40 receptions in a RBBC situation was fine to see hwat he's got and if he can handle the job. Now it's just him for the most part so the opportunitoes will be there. Criteria met.

3. Motivation. He's a great person and again has proven to be of solid character. Criteris met.

So with that said, I expect 20 carries (maybe 22) a game and a conservative 4.4 YPC. I also expect his receptions to improve as he is used more and more in the passing for 2 reasons:

1. He's an excellent blocker.

2. He has very good hands.

Those 2 reasons will put him in position to make more receptions.

320-1408-14 and 50-400-2. And there's more upside.

 

[trader jake]

298 attempts, 1244 rushing yards 4.2 ypc

60 receptions, 669 receiving yards 12 total td's

My prediction for Joseph Addai mirrors exactly what Thurman Thomas did in his second season. Each time I see Joseph Addai play I can't help but see a player very, very similar to the former Bills star.

 

[djcolts]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr 44 174 4.02nd Qtr 63 287 4.63rd Qtr 54 350 6.54th Qtr 65 270 4.2Rush Att. 1-5 78 344 4.4Rush Att. 6-10 70 397 5.7Rush Att. 11-15 51 226 4.4Rush Att. 16-20 22 78 3.5Rush Att. 21-25 5 31 6.2I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

The 4th quarter is also when offenses can become more predictable, and they try to run out the clock by running the ball and the D would expect that.

So what are you trying to say? First you say Addai got all his yardage late in the game after Rhodes wore them down. Now you say that's not the case because the defense was prepared to stop him. You are contradicting yourself. Either Addai benefiitted by being fresh later in the game or he didn't.Well here's a few more stats to disprove your latest theory:

Ahead by 15-21 18 115 6.4Ahead by 8-14 23 106 4.6Ahead by 1-7 64 339 5.3That's right... Addai's averages were BETTER when the team was playing from ahead and protecting the lead. In fact his worst YPC was when the team was down by at least two scores, where defenses are usually the most susceptible to long runs off draw plays.With a screen name like djcolts, we would expect you to have watched a few colts games and know that what you are saying is factually incorrect.

I'm not contradicting myself. The Colts themselves said that Addai benefitted from coming off the bench after Rhodes told Addai how the defense was playing them. I'm not just saying this for my amusement. Why was Rhodes a world beater in the playoffs coming off the bench and a below-average back during the regular season as a starter, especially given the fact that the defenses in the playoffs were better than the average D the Colts played during the regular season?

The problem is the first tiem you said it was because Rhodes tired the defense down. That's not what the Colt's said at all. They said Addai benefitted from Rhodes helping him see how the defense was playing against the run.I don't think Rhodes looked like a world beater in the playoffs. He had a couple long runs, 1 per game really. But he didn't look all that great overall.

You're right - I should not have said Rhodes tired the defense out. I should have said starting meant a lower YPC - which was the case last year for both Addai and Rhodes, and left it at that.

 

[LBH]

I think hes got top 10 rb written all over him

1200yds 10tds 60 rec 500yds 4tds

 

[switz]

Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.

1st Qtr 44 174 4.02nd Qtr 63 287 4.63rd Qtr 54 350 6.54th Qtr 65 270 4.2Rush Att. 1-5 78 344 4.4Rush Att. 6-10 70 397 5.7Rush Att. 11-15 51 226 4.4Rush Att. 16-20 22 78 3.5Rush Att. 21-25 5 31 6.2I'm not so sure it was Rhodes wearing down the defense that made Addai's YPC. Otherwise wouldn't his first few carries (when he's freshest) be his best? And wouldn't the 4th quarter when the defense is most tired, be his best? Neither of those are the case.Regardless, Addai is poised to be a top-5 RB this year, no doubt.

The 4th quarter is also when offenses can become more predictable, and they try to run out the clock by running the ball and the D would expect that.

So what are you trying to say? First you say Addai got all his yardage late in the game after Rhodes wore them down. Now you say that's not the case because the defense was prepared to stop him. You are contradicting yourself. Either Addai benefiitted by being fresh later in the game or he didn't.Well here's a few more stats to disprove your latest theory:

Ahead by 15-21 18 115 6.4Ahead by 8-14 23 106 4.6Ahead by 1-7 64 339 5.3That's right... Addai's averages were BETTER when the team was playing from ahead and protecting the lead. In fact his worst YPC was when the team was down by at least two scores, where defenses are usually the most susceptible to long runs off draw plays.With a screen name like djcolts, we would expect you to have watched a few colts games and know that what you are saying is factually incorrect.

I'm not contradicting myself. The Colts themselves said that Addai benefitted from coming off the bench after Rhodes told Addai how the defense was playing them. I'm not just saying this for my amusement. Why was Rhodes a world beater in the playoffs coming off the bench and a below-average back during the regular season as a starter, especially given the fact that the defenses in the playoffs were better than the average D the Colts played during the regular season?

The problem is the first tiem you said it was because Rhodes tired the defense down. That's not what the Colt's said at all. They said Addai benefitted from Rhodes helping him see how the defense was playing against the run.I don't think Rhodes looked like a world beater in the playoffs. He had a couple long runs, 1 per game really. But he didn't look all that great overall.

You're right - I should not have said Rhodes tired the defense out. I should have said starting meant a lower YPC - which was the case last year for both Addai and Rhodes, and left it at that.

And I would actually agree with that 100%. I don't expect Addai to have a 4.9 YPC this season.

 

[Mr. Bill O'Reilly]

Guy is going to have a big year. He isn't an average back in a great situation, he's an exceptional back in a good sitation. The people calling him average have not seen him play, he is the total package. He runs angry, great cutbacks, fast, amazing blocker, and terrific hands. The best thing about this kid is what is above his shoulders. Terrific attitude and work ethic.

 

[Jedimaster21]

I like Addai, and think he has a higher floor than many backs that will be drafted around the same position. However, I think people are a little too optimistic considering he has never carried the full load at any level, and has been very effective in a RBBC.

255 carries for 1122 yards (4.4 average) 9 TDs

55 catches for 440 (8.0 average) 2 TDs

Definite top 12, but I think it is highly unlikely that he is in the top 5. I just don't see him as an elite back that will shoulder the full load. I think it is very likely that they bring in Chris Brown to take some carries.

 

[duaneok66]

I like Addai, and think he has a higher floor than many backs that will be drafted around the same position. However, I think people are a little too optimistic considering he has never carried the full load at any level, and has been very effective in a RBBC.

255 carries for 1122 yards (4.4 average) 9 TDs

55 catches for 440 (8.0 average) 2 TDs

Definite top 12, but I think it is highly unlikely that he is in the top 5. I just don't see him as an elite back that will shoulder the full load. I think it is very likely that they bring in Chris Brown to take some carries.

good point, but if this is their plan, then why have they not signed him yet?? Indy has complex protection schemes, so you think they want him to learn the offense . . .

 

[Ilov80s]

I don't care who Indy's RB is. If that Indy offense has a feature back, he is a fantasy stud. Addai is going to have a very good year.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

335 carries, 1511 yards, 10 TDs / 64 receptions, 520 yards, 1.6 TDs



The Colts really have nobody else at RB right now. If they bring in a capable runner to help share the load, my projections will change. But the Colts' RB position as a whole will put up big numbers like it always does, and right now I see about 83% of the RB production going to Addai.

 

[ebcpastor2004]

335 carries, 1511 yards, 10 TDs / 64 receptions, 520 yards, 1.6 TDs



The Colts really have nobody else at RB right now. If they bring in a capable runner to help share the load, my projections will change. But the Colts' RB position as a whole will put up big numbers like it always does, and right now I see about 83% of the RB production going to Addai.

I don't have much to add pertaining to projections, but this article in the daily e-mail caught my eye. Instead of starting a new thread I thought it was best to bump this one. "IND - Colts To Continue Using Two-RB System?

Source: Tom James, Terre Haute Tribune Star

Writer Tom James from the Terre Haute Tribune Star, feels that Indianapolis Colts head coach Tony Dungy is planning to continue to employ a two running back approach in his offense in 2007, despite the loss of running back Dominic Rhodes to free agency. RB Kenton Keith and RB DeDe Dorsey are considered to be the early favorites (of players currently on the roster) to fill the Rhodes' former role in the offense, joining RB Joseph Addai as the prominent ball carriers for the team.

[ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ [ OUR VIEW ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ] ]

In my opinion, it's too early to say that the Colts will run the same two back system and give all of Rhodes' carries to another back. Systems are built around talent. And how the carries that went to Rhodes last year get distributed in 2007 is very dependent on what kind of RB the Colts can pair with Addai.

Addai sounds open to whatever is throw his way.

"I took a lot from Dominic and I understood a lot. He helped me out a lot. But I think I've got the will power now to go in there, if I have to [and get the bulk of the carries]. You never know the situation. You never know if you?ve got to split time or if you?ve got to take the full load. But whatever the plan might be, I'm ready for it," Addai said Sunday.

"[A two-back system] has it's advantages and disadvantages. If I have to [carry the ball more], I'll still be fresh. I mean, everybody wants to be the guy. But if that's the system we have to play in, I don't mind."

I seriously doubt that we're talking about a great number of carries from one other RB, but what if the Colts decide to use Addai just like last year (or maybe just a bit more) and use these other two RBs to fill out Rhodes' carries.

Last year: 226 att; 1081 yrds; 7 td/ 40 rec; 325 yrds; 1 td-- Almost 4.8 ypc; these are pretty good numbers for a rookie in a committee. I agree that we'll see Addai with more carries, but how many more seems to be the question. I'm going to be conservative with these projections, but I believe he can be much better.

300 carries, 4.5 ypc, 1350 yrds, 9 td/ 50 rec, 400 yrds, 2 td

Even if he doesn't blow up with Edge-like numbers this year; isn't he still a guy you want on your team? Talent, opportunity, and situation seem to indicate that Addai is a guy to have.

 

[CA_7]

335 carries, 1511 yards, 10 TDs / 64 receptions, 520 yards, 1.6 TDs The Colts really have nobody else at RB right now. If they bring in a capable runner to help share the load, my projections will change. But the Colts' RB position as a whole will put up big numbers like it always does, and right now I see about 83% of the RB production going to Addai.

Yes. And the fact that he is on the best offense in the league, those numbers are easily attainable for considering he has no real competition for carries (as of today).

 

[((Morpheus))]

Where do you guys have him ranked in a PPR league?

 

[BigRed]

PPR I put him 1.04 behind LT, SJ, and Bush.

 

[sholditch]

I still expect the Colts to limit Addai's carries to 18 to 20 a game. I don't know if it is De De Dorsey, or UDFA Harvard RB Clifton Dawson, or if they sign someone else, but one way or another other backs will get 10 carries a game. Also, I don't expect 4.9 yards a carry again - there is a reason Rhodes looked terrible in the regular season when he started, and looked great in the playoffs off the bench. It is because it is easier to come of the bench and get good yardage when the defense is a little more tired and not used to the other guy's running style.So, I'm going to be the slight bear here:288 carries1240 yards rushing7 TDs rushing45 catches340 yards receiving1 TD receiving

I agree with these numbers, though I could see 300 for 1350 rushing, but I think people aren't paying enough attention to the fact that this guy has never been a feature back. Just because he's the Colts feature RB doesn't mean he magically becomes Edge. His ADP is way too high for me and I won't have him on any of my redraft teams this year unless he falls past pick 10 or so.