Player Spotlight: Joe Horn (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Joe Horn, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Joe Horn Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Sweet Love]

I think that age and a new situation are going to catch up to Horn. Add the fact that he will be going from QBs that put up great Fantasy numbers (Brees and Brooks before him) to a guy like Vick, and he will be lucky to get the following stats:

65 Receptions

805 yards

4 TDs

 

[Moldy Potato]

I think that age and a new situation are going to catch up to Horn. Add the fact that he will be going from QBs that put up great Fantasy numbers (Brees and Brooks before him) to a guy like Vick, and he will be lucky to get the following stats:65 Receptions805 yards4 TDs

Agreed, he would be lucky to do so well. I see something more like:40 receptions600 yards3 TDs

 

[ikequebec]

love ya hollywood, but 5 td's in the last 2 yrs and a hammy that wont heal

and oh, vick tossin you the ball... aint soundin too sweet, woof woof woof

50 rec

500 yrds

4 td's

 

[KING]

horn's time has come, and gone. he had a great 5 year run, but has caught fewer passes the last 2 years combined, than he did in '04. at 35, how much is left in the tank? not that he can't contribute. perhaps the falcons are looking at horn as more of an on the field coach. a veteran presence to help the young 1st round picks that have been floundering. even if horn does stay healthy, i don't see him as a viable FF option due to vick.

47 665 14.1 4

 

[msommer]

Not quite as pessimistic on Horn as previous posters.

I'd guess Atlanta will pass about 400 times (if Petrino passes more, great for the receivers).

Vick's career completion percentage is about 54 so there should be 210 receptions to go around. Before you say Harrington - his completion percentage is about 57 so that would give addtl 18 receptions or so.

Who are his big targets:

Crumpler should be good for 60/800/7

Jenkins 40/500/5

White 30/500/2

Dunn 25/200/1

Norwood does not seem much of a factor (12 catches last year) and Dunn seems underutilized - probably because Vick would run sooner than dump off to the RB. There are about another 30 catches to secondary receivers for 400 yards and 4-5 TDs.

This board has had many arguments on Vick as to whether his passes are uncatchable or his receivers have a lot of drops. Let's say it is a little bit of both.

Horn has pertty good hands so it is not impossible that he will make Vicks completion percentage increase (for precedent see T.O./McNabb)

Horn had a ypc last year of 18. But if you look at his game logs the number he posts with most regularity is about 12 - which is below his carreer average of about 15 and below his average 2003-2005 of 13.5.

12.5 seems like a good number. Given his speed is in question and his hands are good it would be difficult not to see Horn being used in 3rd down situations and over the middle. Over the middle he might steal a bit from Crumpler even.

Does any one believe that Horn will be WR3 if healthy?

I'd guess that Horn will at least double the number of receptions as the previous #2 - Roddy White.

White's ypc suggests that he will be suited as WR3 - so his reception total should stay about the same, might dip a little bit.

My estimate would then be 65 rec 810 yards 4 TDs

For thos who believe that the qb for part of the season will be Harrington - that to me would mean more passing, more men in the box and potentially more dumpoffs to Dunn. Should therefore not affect Horn adversely - it might be positive but I'd not count on it.

 

[BostonSportsGuy]

70 catches, 950 yards, 6 TDs

 

[shadyridr]

IMO even if Joe Horn wasnt too old and basically done (which I think he is) the fact is Michael Vick is still the QB. And while Vick improved last year passing the ball for TDs he still had a poor completion %. Plus Alge Crumpler is his go to guy and Michael Jenkins proved to be a good goalline WR. If Vick is suspended I see a slight uptick in Horn's #s cuz Harrington put up some solid passing #s last year.

60 rec, 800 yds, 5 tds

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

I think the Falcons' passing offense as a whole will improve quite a bit this year, and will generate 3100-3200 passing yards. Horn should play a key part in that.

Horn: 51 rec, 749 yards, 5 TDs

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Horn is over the hill and just isn't the same as he used to be (same as Rod Smith). He may have a game winning catch during the course of the season or maybe help out some young wide receivers learn the ropes but as far as producing numbers, he'll be definately on the low end considering some of the numbers he's put up in the past.

45 receptions 640 yards and 4 td's

 

[greyone]

68 rec/ 788 yards / 8tds

Will be Vicks most reliable pass catcher. Sure hands will endear him to Mike Vick. Great Redzone target better than Alge at least for 1 year maybe 2 at most.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Horn averaged over 18 yards a catch last season. And he has always been a better fly pattern guy than over the middle but somehow in NO they turned him into the WR1 and made forced him to go over the middle all the time...leading to a lot of his injuries I might add. Last year he was allowed to roam a lot more downfield and he did well in the games he played.

Wk2 5/88

wk3 3/47

wk4 5/63

wk5 4/48

wk6 6/110/2

wk7 Bye

wk8 5/126/1...are these over the hill numbers?

wk9 DNP

wk10 DNP

wk11 3/93/1...coming off an injury

wk12 3/61

Then he was done for the season. Is brees a better QB? Sure he is but Horn will find room and Vick can actually throw the long ball for days...if Horn can track some of those down and I expect he will...I am more optimistic than many on here.

60 receptions, 900 yds, 6 TD

He will be a nice flex player to have on your roster.

 

[rzrback77]

I watch Joe Horn in training camp last year and he continued to be a very active practice player. I think that he was an encourager for the younger Saint receivers and he seemed more quick in his old age than fast.

He moves on to Atlanta, the black hole for NFL receivers. Atlanta is also at the center of a lot of controversy this off-season with Michael Vick involved in dog fighting, gambling, mariquana, anything else? Also have a new coach, the latest college coach moving up, most of these have not been successful. I'm leery of a lot of Atlanta Falcon situations, especially wide receivers.

I think that Joe Horn will be very good for the Falcons however, as a teacher and encourager for their (still) young wide receiver corp. However in looking at Horn's fantasy possibilities for 07, I am not encouraged. I think that the Falcons continue to run the football, whether with Vick or without. I also see both the RBs targeted more out of the back field and Crumpler continues to be a favorite red zone target, leaving few chances for the three wide outs.

Horn 33 catches for 466 yards and 3 TDs

 

[cha-ching]

70 catches, 950 yards, 6 TDs

Please ditto me on this call. I will add two TD's.I have followed Joe Horn and have always liked him as a WR. Just when I think he's getting old he comes out and puts up 3 TD's on a Sunday afternoon and calls me on his cell phone to tell me how my buddy just crushed me in Fantasy.This is the kind of pro who reminds me of Joey Galloway. He's either going to have a great injury free year and blow away his ADP or he's going down for half the season with a muscle tear. Some are trying to label him as a Rod Smith type but I prefer the Galloway comparison.

 

[BigRed]

bump for some more discussion - think he's worth WR4 flyer. He is (by default) their best WR and Harrington's at least no worse a QB than ol whatshisname was -

 

[BigRed]

bump