Player Spotlight: Jon Kitna & Josh McCown (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Jon Kitna & Josh McCown, QBs, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Jon Kitna Player Page

Player Page Link: Josh McCown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[rzrback77]

The message board is very high on Kitna this off-season. I am not so sure that the Detroit Lions offense will turn it around under Coach Martz. I am also not so sure that McCown will not wind up leading the team.

Kitna will be 34 years old as the 06 season begins, whereas McCown will be 27. It has been three years since Kitna had significant playing time and Detroit starts out with Seattle and on the road at Chicago. If they start out 0-2, week 3 will be a critical game for Kitna and the Lions, facing Green Bay. If he struggles there, McCown could get the call.

McCown 267 completions in 477 attempts for 2800 yards 18 TDs and 16 Ints. Adding 55 rushes for 210 yards and 3 TDs.

Kitna 42 completions in 98 attempts for 490 yards, 2 TDs and 5 Ints. Add 8 rushes for 20 yards and no TDs.

Kitna starts the season giving way to McCown mid-way through the 3rd game against Green Bay.

 

[renesauz]

The message board is very high on Kitna this off-season. I am not so sure that the Detroit Lions offense will turn it around under Coach Martz. I am also not so sure that McCown will not wind up leading the team.

Kitna will be 34 years old as the 06 season begins, whereas McCown will be 27. It has been three years since Kitna had significant playing time and Detroit starts out with Seattle and on the road at Chicago. If they start out 0-2, week 3 will be a critical game for Kitna and the Lions, facing Green Bay. If he struggles there, McCown could get the call.

McCown 267 completions in 477 attempts for 2800 yards 18 TDs and 16 Ints. Adding 55 rushes for 210 yards and 3 TDs.

Kitna 42 completions in 98 attempts for 490 yards, 2 TDs and 5 Ints. Add 8 rushes for 20 yards and no TDs.

Kitna starts the season giving way to McCown mid-way through the 3rd game against Green Bay.

Thinking the same. I love Kitna's upside, but I'd want McCown as a safety blanket. Better still, stay away from the Detroit QB's!

 

[Bankerguy]

I want to contribute something. However at this time, it's a wait and see. I'm still forming opinions and not sure what to expect. So rather than give a guess or spew something uneducated, I'll simply go with a.....



Will revisit.

 

[Musesboy]

The QB situation in Detroit is definitely one that I will steer clear of in all of my drafts. There are just too many question marks. Although Kitna may only cost a 13th round pick, I would much prefer to draft two QBs that are expected to start all year. In my opinion, far too many possibilities exist in Detroit.

Mike Martz will be installing a complicated new offense. Although Kitna has 79 career starts, the Bengals relegated him to back up Carson Palmer despite the fact that Kitna was coming off a career year in 2003. He will be 34 in September and Josh McCown is very much in contention to start at some point. McCown is 27 years old and has 22 career starts.

I am not convinced that Martz will be able to work his magic with the group of players available to him. Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk were all pro bowlers and it just might be possible that their talent was the main reason for the success of the Rams' passing game, rather than the ability of Martz. Roy Williams is not in the same class as Holt or Bruce and perhaps never will be, while the supporting cast is well below his level at present.

All of those question marks make me believe that Kitna isn't worth the risk. I believe that there will be considerable pressure on Kitna if he gets off to a slow start, and that he will almost certainly be benched once the Lions fall out of playoff contention as I expect. The last time Kitna changed teams, there was a large drop in his yards per attempt and completion percentage. It's possible that he may struggle to pick up the new offense.

Prediction

Kitna

224/400 2400 passing yards 14 TDs 14 INTs

24 rushes 60 yards 1 TD

McCown

75/130 850 passing yards 5 TDs 7 INTs

12 rushes 50 yards 0 TDs

 

[msommer]

When was the last time Martz did not get his starting QB injured because of running 3 WR sets all the time?

Together they will post 300/480 3000 yards 20 TDs 17 INTs, less than 100 yards on the ground, maybe 1 TD.

Not sure of the split though, although I am not high on Kitna.

 

[David Yudkin]

I'm not buying that McCown will be seeing much time unless Kitna gets hurt. Martz played Warner in 2005 with the Rams en route to an 0-5 start and Warner was just plain awful--absolutely dreadful. Warner ended up getting hurt, but he went back to him later in the year.

From all I've seen, it's not a competition--Kitna is the starter. He's been much better in picking up the new scheme. The competition is for the BACKUP QB between McCown and Orlovsky.

 

[Musesboy]

I'm not buying that McCown will be seeing much time unless Kitna gets hurt. Martz played Warner in 2005 with the Rams en route to an 0-5 start and Warner was just plain awful--absolutely dreadful. Warner ended up getting hurt, but he went back to him later in the year.

From all I've seen, it's not a competition--Kitna is the starter. He's been much better in picking up the new scheme. The competition is for the BACKUP QB between McCown and Orlovsky.

Yes but in that 2002 season, Warner was a proven Super Bowl winning QB coming off a 4830 yard, 36 TD season. Bulger was not an obvious alternative as he was totally unproven at that time. Kitna has had nothing like the level of success that Warner has had, and McCown is a more seasoned alternative than Bulger was at the time. I doubt that Martz thinks that Kitna will lead the Lions deep into the playoffs and I could easily see McCown getting a chance. That seems especially likely if the Lions are eliminated. Also, Martz is not the HC and might be instructed from above to make a change.

 

[Spartans Rule]

I'm not buying that McCown will be seeing much time unless Kitna gets hurt. Martz played Warner in 2005 with the Rams en route to an 0-5 start and Warner was just plain awful--absolutely dreadful. Warner ended up getting hurt, but he went back to him later in the year.

From all I've seen, it's not a competition--Kitna is the starter. He's been much better in picking up the new scheme. The competition is for the BACKUP QB between McCown and Orlovsky.

This is what every offseason report is saying. Kitna is clearly the starter right now and IMO this really should not be a combined spotlight.

 

[-OZ-]

This is what every offseason report is saying. Kitna is clearly the starter right now and IMO this really should not be a combined spotlight.

Or if it is, include both competing backups. McCown can't even seperate himself from a UConn QB with very little experience. DO is the better raw talent and a great fit for the system if he catches on in camp.

 

[bikerider']

 

[Wildcat]

I'm not buying that McCown will be seeing much time unless Kitna gets hurt.  Martz played Warner in 2005 with the Rams en route to an 0-5 start and Warner was just plain awful--absolutely dreadful.  Warner ended up getting hurt, but he went back to him later in the year.

From all I've seen, it's not a competition--Kitna is the starter.  He's been much better in picking up the new scheme.  The competition is for the BACKUP QB between McCown and Orlovsky.

This is what every offseason report is saying. Kitna is clearly the starter right now and IMO this really should not be a combined spotlight.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

I believe that Kitna will be the starter all year barring injury like some other posters do. That being said, it is the middle of July and lots can happen and he is a 34 year old QB coming into a new team/system. New HC Marinelli seems to have suggested that he would like a strong ground game and Martz himself has said words to that effect about KJ. Martz isn't exactly known for a strong running offense though as his forte was the aerial attack in STL. For me, Kitna is in the 3rd tier of QB's with decent upside, given his surrounding talent. The question is can Martz/Marinelli get that talent to produce with a an average OL so it is all about where you draft him and what QB is he is for you. If you can land him as QB3 that would be ideal, but a QB2 with a solid QB1 would work too. Detroit has been a fantasy wasteland with the exception of Roy for a few years now, so expecting a huge change overnight is a little much, but the situation reeks of intrigue for FF. We FF players seem to be drawn to the high upside of Detroit low investment cost (QB anyway) with all the offensive talent at WR and RB, average D...but the reality is that you have a new HC, OC and system and these things take time. There is a huge variation between the floor and the ceiling here IMHO. I have Kitna at:

3200 yards, 21 TD's, 15 picks maybe a TD on the ground

 

[Spartans Rule]

My Kitna projections:

296-492 (60.1 %)

3423 yards

20 TD

17 INT

35-88-1 on the ground

 

[mlball77]

I think its reasonably likely that Kitna will hold onto the starting job (definitely not a guarantee though). If DET's WR play is decent in 06, Kitna could have a good year under Martz's tutelage.

My projection-

Pass Yds: 3200

TDs: 19

INTs: 15

Rush Yds: 75

Rush TDs: 1

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

I'm not buying that McCown will be seeing much time unless Kitna gets hurt.  Martz played Warner in 2005 with the Rams en route to an 0-5 start and Warner was just plain awful--absolutely dreadful.  Warner ended up getting hurt, but he went back to him later in the year.

From all I've seen, it's not a competition--Kitna is the starter.  He's been much better in picking up the new scheme.  The competition is for the BACKUP QB between McCown and Orlovsky.

The bright side of this situation (further adding to my opinion that Martz is brilliant) is that there exists statistical stability in either QB you choose. With all the fuss that was made of McCown and his situation last year, he put up rather pedestrian numbers- numbers that mirrored his career averages. In fact, he's always had a 6+ YPA and didnt stray far away at all last season. He's sported a ~1 TD/INT ratio all three seasons, without fail. And his % has always been stable, sporting 57% twice and finally hitting 60% last year. With all the help that a healthy Fitzgerald and Boldin were supposed to be, he simply couldnt shake a trend.

On the other hand we have Kitna, a veteran, who mimics the consistancy of McCown but adds a little spark. His completion% has always hovered around 60%, YPA always around 6.0 but its his ability to score that seperates him from McCown. Yeah, Kitna's TD/INT ratio isnt something to write home about but, like McCown its always been around 1. Its just that for two seasons, he really busted out. Two seasons that would have landed him the distinction of a top-10 fantasy QB this season. And his best season wasnt too long ago.

See the problem here is that Detroit cant win with pedestrian numbers. Its hard to think that a QB, who had all the weapons to ask for and who only posted a 1:1 ratio could do any better with a group of undisciplined, underachieving WR's. How will detroit win with that sort of performance? What they need is a gunslinger, a QB who isnt tentative about firing the ball and sometimes making mistakes. McCown isnt that guy. How could his ratio never change with the league's finest and finally healthy reciever? That tells me he's cautious, and frankly that wont cut it.* Kitna's had his ups and downs with different sets of receivers, showing me he's not afraid to throw. And thats the key to the success for this team, to air it out. Opens things up for the running game and KJ has shown dominance when he has room. Kitna has posted 400+ attempts in every completed/almost completed season. He'll need to continue for Detroit to make a run this season.

*Thats also why I think Harrington didnt make it in detroit. Season after season he posted close to that 1:1 ratio and hence the offense sputtered in turn. Yes the ATTS were there but he seemed not to improve as his recievers improved. Strange, but thats what could be said of McCown. Kitna, on the other hand, seemed to flourish with good sets of recievers in '99 and '03 (his best seasons)

Projections: While I cant project an injury, I can project on a per-game basis

Jon Kitna:

Per Game: 18 completions, 30 attempts, 180 yards, 1.5 TD, 1 INT

16 Game Season: 290 completions, 480 attempts, 2900 yards, 22 TD's, 15 INT's

 

[wannabee]

Lions | Martz finds Kitna a quick study

Published Thu Aug 3 11:14:00 p.m. ET 2006

(KFFL) Dan Pompei, of the Sporting News, reports Detroit Lions offensive coordinator Mike Martz has found QB Jon Kitna to be a quick study. Martz claims Kitna does not need a lot of repetitions to learn a playbook.

 

[Payne]

Just a heads up, as of now Orlovsky is #2.

 

[valhallan]

More glowing comments about Kitna from Martz tonight on Total Access. He waxed poetic about his accuracy, intelligence, and leadership. He also said the situation in Detroit is "better than [he] thought it would be."

Kitna could be a very nice flyer this year.

I don't normally do projections, but I'll put him at:

Passing: 295/485 3600 20/17

Rushing: 25/75 1td

Just outside the top 10

 

[gbill2004]

Bump. Any other recent thoughts on Kitna? The last post is almost a month old...

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

I'm going to go out on a limb here and predict that Kitna's job will hang in the balance going into week 3 against the Packers.

I expect Kitna to look absolutely pathetic against the Seahawks and Bears in weeks 1 and 2. If he isn't able to lead the Lions to a win over the Packers, I think Josh McCown will be given a shot.

 

[Z-Dog]

McCown won the backup job.

 

[zamboni]

McCown won the backup job.

As someone noted earlier, I think he'll be given a chance at the starting gig sooner rather than later if Kitna falters. Kitna is a stopgap, and the team will need to see if McCown can be the future. He did look good in limited time last year, although having Fitz and Boldin to throw to will do that for a QB.

 

[bjabrad]

McCown won the backup job.

As someone noted earlier, I think he'll be given a chance at the starting gig sooner rather than later if Kitna falters. Kitna is a stopgap, and the team will need to see if McCown can be the future. He did look good in limited time last year, although having Fitz and Boldin to throw to will do that for a QB.

Seems to me that there are plenty of injuries that can happen to any QB during the season that can take him down for a game or two that will serve the purpose of finding out if McCown can be the QB of the future. I think they'll ride Kitna for as long as they're in playoff contention and if out of the race then give McCown a chance barring earlier injury to Kitna.

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

McCown won the backup job.

As someone noted earlier, I think he'll be given a chance at the starting gig sooner rather than later if Kitna falters. Kitna is a stopgap, and the team will need to see if McCown can be the future. He did look good in limited time last year, although having Fitz and Boldin to throw to will do that for a QB.

Seems to me that there are plenty of injuries that can happen to any QB during the season that can take him down for a game or two that will serve the purpose of finding out if McCown can be the QB of the future. I think they'll ride Kitna for as long as they're in playoff contention and if out of the race then give McCown a chance barring earlier injury to Kitna.

I just don't think Kitna will get that kind of time. By most accounts, the Lions will be 0-2 after facing the Seahawks and Bears. Kitna is going to have deliver a win in week 3 against the Packers or Lions fans will be screaming for his head.

 

[TommyGilmore]

Not sure why so many people are so sure that McCown will be the starter by week 5.

I say Kitna holds on to it all year. 3200 yards and 20 TDs is not out of the question.

Also, I think Detroit will be 2-1 after 3 weeks. They're better than you think.

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

Not sure why so many people are so sure that McCown will be the starter by week 5.I say Kitna holds on to it all year. 3200 yards and 20 TDs is not out of the question.Also, I think Detroit will be 2-1 after 3 weeks. They're better than you think.

So you think they'll either beat the Seahawks in week 1 or go into Chicago and beat the Bears? Good luck with that prediction.

 

[TommyGilmore]

Not sure why so many people are so sure that McCown will be the starter by week 5.I say Kitna holds on to it all year. 3200 yards and 20 TDs is not out of the question.Also, I think Detroit will be 2-1 after 3 weeks. They're better than you think.

So you think they'll either beat the Seahawks in week 1 or go into Chicago and beat the Bears? Good luck with that prediction.

Neither of those teams are as good as people think (especially Seattle).

 

[This_Is_Not_VRR]

Not sure why so many people are so sure that McCown will be the starter by week 5.I say Kitna holds on to it all year. 3200 yards and 20 TDs is not out of the question.Also, I think Detroit will be 2-1 after 3 weeks. They're better than you think.

So you think they'll either beat the Seahawks in week 1 or go into Chicago and beat the Bears? Good luck with that prediction.

Neither of those teams are as good as people think (especially Seattle).

Seattle is the best team in the league. Get ready for an absolute massacre come sunday

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

Kitna

224/400 2400 passing yards 14 TDs 14 INTs

24 rushes 60 yards 1 TD

Actual

372/596 4208 passing yards 21 TDs 22 INTs

34 carries 156 yards 2 TDs

I was way off on this one. Kitna surprised me by retaining the job even when the Lions fell out of contention, and he performed better than I expected on a game-by-game basis. I didn't expect Mike Furrey to contribute 98 receptions either.

The QB situation in Detroit is definitely one that I will steer clear of in all of my drafts. There are just too many question marks. Although Kitna may only cost a 13th round pick, I would much prefer to draft two QBs that are expected to start all year. In my opinion, far too many possibilities exist in Detroit.

Mike Martz will be installing a complicated new offense. Although Kitna has 79 career starts, the Bengals relegated him to back up Carson Palmer despite the fact that Kitna was coming off a career year in 2003. He will be 34 in September and Josh McCown is very much in contention to start at some point. McCown is 27 years old and has 22 career starts.

I am not convinced that Martz will be able to work his magic with the group of players available to him. Kurt Warner, Torry Holt, Isaac Bruce and Marshall Faulk were all pro bowlers and it just might be possible that their talent was the main reason for the success of the Rams' passing game, rather than the ability of Martz. Roy Williams is not in the same class as Holt or Bruce and perhaps never will be, while the supporting cast is well below his level at present.

All of those question marks make me believe that Kitna isn't worth the risk. I believe that there will be considerable pressure on Kitna if he gets off to a slow start, and that he will almost certainly be benched once the Lions fall out of playoff contention as I expect. The last time Kitna changed teams, there was a large drop in his yards per attempt and completion percentage. It's possible that he may struggle to pick up the new offense.

Prediction

Kitna

224/400 2400 passing yards 14 TDs 14 INTs

24 rushes 60 yards 1 TD

McCown

75/130 850 passing yards 5 TDs 7 INTs

12 rushes 50 yards 0 TDs