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Player Spotlight: JuJu Smith-Schuster (1 Viewer)

Justin Howe

Justin Howe

Moderator
As Jason Wood laid out in his Jerick McKinnon Spotlight ...

After a hiatus, we're bringing the Player Spotlight threads back to the Shark Pool. For those who are new around here, the Player Spotlights are a main feature of our preseason on the site. They're in-depth looks at key players, including pros and cons, and our staff projections. For years, we also included the best commentary from the Shark Pool. A few years ago, activity in the Pool died down and commentary waned. But, we have confidence in a resurgence.

So here's the deal. Discuss your thoughts about the player in question. We'll pick the best comments from the bunch and use them (and give you credit) in the published articles.

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JuJu is coming off a top-five all-time rookie season at the position, at least in terms of per-target efficiency. Dating back 20 years - all the way to Randy Moss' 69-1,313-17 eruption of 1998 - JuJu's rookie year ended:

1st in yards/target (11.61, a yard more than anyone else)
7th in catch rate (73.4%)
13th in touchdown rate (12.1%)
3rd in PPR points/target (yes, better than Beckham)

* among rookie wideouts with 50+ receptions

Right now, he's going as the PPR WR19, ahead of Amari Cooper and Brandin Cooks, but behind Allen Robinson and Demaryius Thomas. So, what say us all? Does his efficiency regress too much to justify that ADP? Is the volume outlook in place for him to top 60-65 catches? Are you taking him over the guys above, or over the Volume Crew (Larry Fitzgerald/Jarvis Landry/Golden Tate)?

 
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I believe he will be a top 8-10 WR this season, he's that special. If he gets just 1/2 of M. Bryant's 50 recs, he will have 83 recs on the season.and that's probably his floor..( personally I think he gets closer to 35 of Bryant's 50 catches, moving JJ to 93 recs on the season. )

but assuming a more reasonable, easier to reach 83 recs, at 15.8 per catch, would mean 1311 yards..as a result of 25 more recs, he's likely to see a jump in TDs so let's give him 2 TDs out of that 25 recs...his stat line would be 83/1311/9..that would certainly put him in the top 10 WRs ..

he's one of a handful of WR's with a high floor, high ceiling..I think we're just getting started with JJ..

 
I like JuJu quite a bit, and would take him over Cooper, Robinson, Cooks and D. Thomas, that said, I think its important to note that he had some amazing per target numbers, so while he'll certainly see more targets, he is highly unlikely to do as much with them. I certainly wouldn't take him over Fitzgerald.

James Washington's progression will be interesting, I think he's going to be a better WR than Bryant was, its just a matter of how long it takes, maybe it happens late this year, maybe next? 

I think JuJu sees more targets, but has fewer big plays. 70-1000-5 feels like a fair over/under to me. 

 
I was not very high on Smith-Shuster as a prospect out of USC, but obviously I was wrong not to be. He looks like a superstar in the making and I do not see any real weaknesses in his skillset. He may not be the fastest WR in the league, or the strongest, or the best route runner - but if you compare his overall skillset against the rest of the league it's hard not to see him as a top 15 talent. He should be Big Ben's second most targeted option in the passing game, which does give him a very high floor and a very high ceiling.

Early projection: 78-1,085-7

 
I love me some Juju. 81-1,163-8

Some folks seem to really dislike him as I was just offered AJ McCaron & Sproles for him in Dynasty...

 
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Looking at some of the projections here if I'd been in a coma for the last few months and just woke up to see this thread I'd think AB was not a Steeler anymore. 

I guess no one else is worried about his knee issue? Could be nothing but it's keeping him out of mini-camp, he's saying it's been an issue since college and won't directly answer a question on if he's had surgery or not this off-season. I'm at least a little worried that it will impact him this upcoming season at least. If the knee is ok I'd tend to put him ballpark of numbers provided by @Justin Howe and @travdogg

 
menobrown said:
Looking at some of the projections here if I'd been in a coma for the last few months and just woke up to see this thread I'd think AB was not a Steeler anymore. 

I guess no one else is worried about his knee issue? Could be nothing but it's keeping him out of mini-camp, he's saying it's been an issue since college and won't directly answer a question on if he's had surgery or not this off-season. I'm at least a little worried that it will impact him this upcoming season at least. If the knee is ok I'd tend to put him ballpark of numbers provided by @Justin Howe and @travdogg
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I'm not. To be honest, if it's something that would require surgery (MF for example) then I would be more nervous about long term implications. Now is the time to fix it if it's something that needs to be fixed. Since he's not going under the knife I'm not concerned. And if it was fixed this offseason, then I'm even less concerned since it would be normal rehab right now and OTAs wouldn't be something that I would expect him to participate in. If it was operated on, given we don't have details, it was likely just a debridement of the knee itself which is as minor as a surgery can get. If it was something more serious such as MF then we would have likely heard and it would have been obvious by his weight bearing restrictions. 

 

 
58 catches for 917 yards and 7 TDs from 79 targets in only 14 games.  As a rookie, with Bryant on the roster.  So just assuming no changes but prorating to a full 16 game season would mean 66 for 1,048 and 8.  No longer being a rookie and no longer having Bryant as a teammate.....that's a high ceiling. 

 
matttyl said:
58 catches for 917 yards and 7 TDs from 79 targets in only 14 games.  As a rookie, with Bryant on the roster.  So just assuming no changes but prorating to a full 16 game season would mean 66 for 1,048 and 8.  No longer being a rookie and no longer having Bryant as a teammate.....that's a high ceiling. 
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Except the team drafted Washington 2nd round, and the initial word is that they intend to get him involved, I remember reading in a recent FBG daily e-mail

 
travdogg said:
I like JuJu quite a bit, and would take him over Cooper, Robinson, Cooks and D. Thomas, that said, I think its important to note that he had some amazing per target numbers, so while he'll certainly see more targets, he is highly unlikely to do as much with them. I certainly wouldn't take him over Fitzgerald.

James Washington's progression will be interesting, I think he's going to be a better WR than Bryant was, its just a matter of how long it takes, maybe it happens late this year, maybe next? 

I think JuJu sees more targets, but has fewer big plays. 70-1000-5 feels like a fair over/under to me. 
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I also think its a fair over/under.  I think Bryant being gone is kind of irrelevant.  Juju quickly moved past Bryant and became the #3.  He is still the #3 behind Brown and Bell.  I think Juju will make his big jump in year 3, because Bell will be gone imo.

 
Dr. Dan said:
Except the team drafted Washington 2nd round, and the initial word is that they intend to get him involved, I remember reading in a recent FBG daily e-mail
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It is important to note that Washington WILL likely be involved. Tomlin/Roethlisberger have no qualms whatsoever about incorporating a rookie with big skills into a sizeable WR3 role (Wallace, Sanders, JuJu), and Washington is a deadly downfield guy.

Still, even if we give him ALL of Bryant's production after Week 8 (when JuJu torched the Lions and took over WR2 duties), there's plenty of room for Brown and Bell to eat WHILE JuJu makes DBs look silly.

 
First off, I love that Juju is a Steeler. He came into the league very young and has the potential to be a star player for 10-15 years which is pretty incredible.  His rookie season started things off with a bang and people are going crazy over him. I definitely think he could end the season as a top 20 WR if he stays healthy.

However, a lot of his production came when AB was injured, or off very long passes (97 yard TD). Those are very difficult to predict year to year, similar to Crowell 2 years ago. He had good end of season stats, but he gained yards from big splash plays. I think that Juju will have fewer deep catches this year, but more volume moving into his second season. There isn't a lot of depth on the Steelers, AB, Juju, Washington, then nothing. If either AB or Washington goes down, then Juju could see a huge amount of work.

A lot of people are touting Martavis' exit as a reason for Juju to see more work, but I wouldn't be surprised if Washington picked up the workload and ran with it. The larger possible effect could come from Eli Rogers being out of the picture. Juju has stated that he likes working out of the slot and his usage there could go even higher. With AB and Leveon taking the brunt of the defensive focus, he should be able to thrive in Pittsburgh. My main worries are a decrease in efficiency, the chance Big Ben goes down and his quality of target drops significantly (Ben rarely plays a full 16), and Washington and a healthy McDonald could take more targets than Bryant/Rogers/Jesse James took last year.

This year Juju keeps rising as the draft approaches and I'll probably pass on him at his price, but I think he's a decent buy in Dynasty. He costs a ton, but he's going to be a very solid WR for many years to come.

 
Here are some interesting numbers that people could twist to serve their purpose. I don't think these numbers tell a whole story because JuJu in the second half of the season had progressed as a player and his role was growing and he was also likely slowed at least a little with a hamstring injury but still interesting.

14 game season: 79 targets for 58/917/7 PPR PPG: 13.69

3 games that AB missed all or most: 23 targets for 21/332/2.   PPR PPG: 22.06

11 full games with AB: 56 targets for 37/585/5 PPR PPG: 11.4

4 games that AB or Martavis missed all or most: 33 targets for 28/525/3  PPR PPG: 24.63

10 full games he played with Martavis and AB: 46 targets for 30/392/4 PPR PPG: 9.32

Again I don't think these numbers paint a whole picture of his season since the missed games by AB and Martavis occurred later in the season when JuJu's game and role had grown. But two things on this:

If Martavis departure is a reason to bump up JuJu I think you got to factor in the impact of his stats last year the 3 games AB was out or barely played plus he had his best game of the season the week Martavis missed. So to me you can't just look at Martavis departure as a win for his role growing and not factor in that his stats last year were ALREADY heavily enhanced by not having Martavis or AB to contend with for better part of 4 games that accounted for most of his production.

On the flip side when he was asked to be the clear cut #1 or #2 option(among non RB's)  he absolutely got off and his efficiency was just incredible when he was the clear cut #1 or #2 option (among non RB's). He is now the clear cut #2 option every week.

 
I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR dynasty. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.

 
Magic_Man said:
I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR dynasty. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.
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Not enough.

Tex

 
Magic_Man said:
I was offered Darnold & 1.6 for Juju in PPR dynasty. That 1.6 is actually a late 1st or early 2nd since this is a devy league (14 teams) Even though I need a backup QB, I think this is light for Juju.
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Quite light. JuJu shouldn't move for anything less than 1.2 in rookie pick. I value him clearly behind Barkley, but well ahead of the 1.2.

 
JPeso said:
Quite light. JuJu shouldn't move for anything less than 1.2 in rookie pick. I value him clearly behind Barkley, but well ahead of the 1.2.
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74/1110/9 for 239 PPR rec, throwing 80 rushing yards behind his name too, probably a bit conservative as he can get that on two end arounds. 247 PPR

 
I might be the only one here who believes AB missing the preseason with [insert bogus body part injury here] has elevated Juju’s value beyond realistic expectations.

dont get me wrong - I love the dude & would have drafted him in redraft if he’d made it to me in the right spot. 

But his ADP seemed to climb weekly based on preseason performance where he was the WR1.

Will be interesting to see if his value warrants his ADP. Bell’s holdout might help. 

 
matttyl said:
Was thinking about this as well.  Without Bell, defenses will target more on stopping Brown.  They can't double Juju. 
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But without Brown that’s one less premium player to defend, so they could double Juju. 

I thought Juju got open so much because defenses had to worry about AB & Bell.  :shrug:

 
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