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Player Spotlight: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Julio Jones Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
 

lbouchard

Footballguy
In 2011, Ryan passed for 29 TDs. Jones, as a rookie, caught 8 in 13 games. Extrapolated to 16 games, that would be 10, or 34.4% of Ryan's tosses. This past year, Ryan threw for 32, and Jones caught 10 in 16 games (although I think he was hobbled in a few). That's 31.3%.

In 2011, Ryan threw for 4,177 yards. Jones's extrapolated numbers come out to 1,180, or 28.2% of Ryan's yards. Last year, Ryan threw for 4,719. Jones had 1,198, or 25.3%.

I think Ryan repeats his past season, so I currently have him projected for 34 TDs and 4,800 yards. Giving Jones 33% of the TDs and 27% of the yards (both very reasonable, maybe even low since he surpassed both of those percentages as a rookie) would give Jones a statline of 80 catches for 1,300 yards and 11 TDs, and I think that's close to his floor. Adding in a hint of upside, I'd go with 90 catches for 1,450 yards and 13 TDs. That playoff game against the Niners (11/180/2) was a harbinger of things to come. It will be tough for him to beat Calvin, Marshall, Dez, or Green, but I have him locked and loaded as redraft's no.5 WR.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
While Julio Jones showed glimpses of his ceiling during his rookie year, he stepped up his game significantly in 2012 to even another level. From a physical talent perspective, he may only be exceeded by Calvin Johnson. On a team that didn’t have such a diverse set of weapons, Jones might be the unquestioned #2 WR in football. But he resides on an offense that values a more equitable distribution of targets. Jones ranked 21st in the NFL in target percentage. Justin Blackmon and Mike Williams received a higher percentage of their teams’ targets than Julio Jones. But what Jones doesn’t get in terms of offensive focus, he gets in terms of Yards After the Catch (YAC). His 40.57% YAC rate ranked only behind Michael Crabtree, Wes Welker and Randall Cobb amongst WR’s and his 15.2 YPC was 2.2 yards higher than any of the three listed receivers above. So it’s not a stretch to say that Jones in two seasons, Jones has morphed into one of, if not the most dangerous downfield threat in the NFL.

Now it’s true that he gets the benefit of playing across a bonafide #1 WR (according to everyone but Richard Sherman). But Jones has simply become a dominant force in two seasons and he may already be the best back of the end zone receiver in the NFL. The issue though is that because of the well-proportioned passing game in Atlanta, it’s tough to see him improving much on his 2012 numbers which while very very good (most definitely in WR1 territory) don’t contain the type of ceiling that a player like Dez Bryant has or even an Andre Johnson/Larry Fitzgerald (from a yardage perspective). That’s not to say that Jones won’t out produce any of those three. But I could see those three receivers coming with a 1400-1500 10 TD season. Jones I think is maxed out at 1300. He could make that up with 12 TD’s potentially given his proficiency working the end zone. But with Gonzalez and White, the Falcons don’t need to force it to Julio and so I can’t see him dominating red zone looks.

Julio is a safe WR1 pick. He’ll probably finish as WR5-9 and his variance is minimal. But his upside is measured more still in his physical gifts and future versus his FF production potential in FF2013.

Prediction: 82 Receptions, 1194 Receiving Yards, 12 TD’s, 5 rushes 21 Yards

 

Borden

Footballguy
I think this is Julio's career year.

Roddy at 32 is still really good but I think this is the year he passes the torch instead of sharing it. He should be mature enough not to be demanding the ball and should be only focused on winning a Superbowl. However, he is has enough skill that defenses can't choose to blanket Julio with out getting burnt by Roddy.

Tony is old but he is still good enough that teams have to account for him.

Jackson is better then Turner and I believe will force teams force safeties to at least consider having to step up into the box or linebackers to slide into the flats to cover him.

This year will be the last year that defenses have to respect too many other weapons leaving Julio to have at least a little breathing room. At the same time I think that Julio is their best weapon and the goal of any team (besides winning) is to get the ball into the hands of you best players.

The NFC South as a whole will be improved over last season and I can see the Falcons being forced to pass the ball a little more this year.

All these things added up and I see a career year. I will throw in my floors numbers too.

101/1650/16 Ceiling

80/1100/9 Floor

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Pure gut feeling but I see him as a top 10 but limited to have the type of year being mentioned above. My reason is I think, as a real life team, this is a team that the stage is set for to make a real, serious run at a SB and I think they will lean on the veteran leadership of roddy, sjax, and gonzo to p,ay it out on that stage. I see Julio as more as the "kid" that comes up big here and there and proves he belongs but isn't the guy they lean on when they get serious, week in and week out.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Julio has the potential to put up monster numbers, but the Falcons have so many great weapons that all of them are gonna have their off weeks, like they all did at times last year, and I suspect that will be the case again this year. Plus, Julio has shown that he can dinged up from time to time, so there is the concern that he will have a game or two where he leaves early with an injury or plays hurt and is ineffective. But overall:

80 catches, 1,250 yards, 11 TDs

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
Sabertooth said:
I think this is the year for Julio.

95 catches

1450

15 touchdowns.
kooool-aid.

If you watch the game film last year you'll see defenses shadowing toward double covering Julio on every play.

Roddy is the value pick yet again this year (same or better production a round later), but Julio is still a lock for 80 rec, 10 TDs and 1,100 yards, with obvious massive upside.

 
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Art Vandalay

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11

 

Sabertooth

Footballguy
Sabertooth said:
I think this is the year for Julio.

95 catches

1450

15 touchdowns.
kooool-aid.

If you watch the game film last year you'll see defenses shadowing toward double covering Julio on every play.

Roddy is the value pick yet again this year (same or better production a round later), but Julio is still a lock for 80 rec, 10 TDs and 1,100 yards, with obvious massive upside.
Defense tend to shade covering towards the best player on the field. It doesn't matter sometimes. This is one of those times.

 

humpback

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11
Not true at all- he gets plenty of short looks. I do agree that he isn't going to be super consistent from week to week, but that goes for most WRs.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
Disagree with Ryan being an average QB. Ryan spreads the ball around, and when you have two excellent receivers and perhaps the best TE of all time, you can't blame him. So of course Roddy and Tony G are going to limit Julio's upside to a certain degree. But I wouldn't rule out a 4700-40 year from Ryan.

That said, I agree with your projection. I have Julio at WR6 behind Calvin, Dez, Marshall, Green and D Thomas. The only real issue is that Julio is going to be up and down a little more than the others ahead of him. It seems as if one of Julio or Roddy had a big game every week, but not both.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
Disagree with Ryan being an average QB. Ryan spreads the ball around, and when you have two excellent receivers and perhaps the best TE of all time, you can't blame him. So of course Roddy and Tony G are going to limit Julio's upside to a certain degree. But I wouldn't rule out a 4700-40 year from Ryan.

That said, I agree with your projection. I have Julio at WR6 behind Calvin, Dez, Marshall, Green and D Thomas. The only real issue is that Julio is going to be up and down a little more than the others ahead of him. It seems as if one of Julio or Roddy had a big game every week, but not both.
I'm not blaming him for spreading it around, I'm blaming him for not doing more with his opportunity. That is the best trio in football right now and Ryan threw the ball 615 times. He was 6th in the league in attempts and 5th in the league in yards and 5th in touchdowns. So he's barely above breaking even. Granted there is a large gap between these guys and "average", but Manning and Rodgers threw for more yards and TDs with less attempts. Their receivers are good but not as good as this trio.

I'd rank Julio above DT easily. I'm guessing they both get around the same number of targets, but I could see Julio feasibly getting more targets than I project whereas I can't imagine DT gets more targets than last year now that Welker has arrived. He'll be doing good to keep all of his targets. However, Roddy got 179 targets just two years ago and Gonzo is getting old. Julio's 140 targets are not nearly as capped as DT's are.

 

Borden

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
Disagree with Ryan being an average QB. Ryan spreads the ball around, and when you have two excellent receivers and perhaps the best TE of all time, you can't blame him. So of course Roddy and Tony G are going to limit Julio's upside to a certain degree. But I wouldn't rule out a 4700-40 year from Ryan.

That said, I agree with your projection. I have Julio at WR6 behind Calvin, Dez, Marshall, Green and D Thomas. The only real issue is that Julio is going to be up and down a little more than the others ahead of him. It seems as if one of Julio or Roddy had a big game every week, but not both.
I'm not blaming him for spreading it around, I'm blaming him for not doing more with his opportunity. That is the best trio in football right now and Ryan threw the ball 615 times. He was 6th in the league in attempts and 5th in the league in yards and 5th in touchdowns. So he's barely above breaking even. Granted there is a large gap between these guys and "average", but Manning and Rodgers threw for more yards and TDs with less attempts. Their receivers are good but not as good as this trio.

I'd rank Julio above DT easily. I'm guessing they both get around the same number of targets, but I could see Julio feasibly getting more targets than I project whereas I can't imagine DT gets more targets than last year now that Welker has arrived. He'll be doing good to keep all of his targets. However, Roddy got 179 targets just two years ago and Gonzo is getting old. Julio's 140 targets are not nearly as capped as DT's are.
So, you want Ryan to finish higher then 5th in passing yards and TDs in order to make the best of his opportunity? Keep in mind that Falcons went 13 and 3 (with one loss being week 17 when they rested guys). So teams tend to pass less when they're winning and when you look at the guys ahead of him in yards (Brady, Brees, Stafford, Romo) only one made the playoffs. Teams who are more likely to be playing catch up in the 4th (expect Brady but the Pats don't mind piling on). When you look at who finished ahead of Ryan in TDs, it's just a Hall of Fame list. Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady. It seems like Ryan is doing alright with his opportunities.

The NFC South will be improved over last year and I don't see Atlanta going 13-3. This might not mean that Ryan's attempts go up much but the distance of fourth quarter passes goes up and we all know who the deep ball goes to. It's a big difference between playing to run out the clock and playing against the clock.

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11
Not true at all- he gets plenty of short looks. I do agree that he isn't going to be super consistent from week to week, but that goes for most WRs.
Agreed. Heck, he had TDs from 8, 9, 11 and 3 yards last year, and they seem to like to throw him some short passes which he thens turns into big gains. Sure, they don't always turn into big gainers - like when he had 4-14 in the Denver game - but he is not just a deep threat. I agree with a lot of what else Art said, though.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
Disagree with Ryan being an average QB. Ryan spreads the ball around, and when you have two excellent receivers and perhaps the best TE of all time, you can't blame him. So of course Roddy and Tony G are going to limit Julio's upside to a certain degree. But I wouldn't rule out a 4700-40 year from Ryan.

That said, I agree with your projection. I have Julio at WR6 behind Calvin, Dez, Marshall, Green and D Thomas. The only real issue is that Julio is going to be up and down a little more than the others ahead of him. It seems as if one of Julio or Roddy had a big game every week, but not both.
I'm not blaming him for spreading it around, I'm blaming him for not doing more with his opportunity. That is the best trio in football right now and Ryan threw the ball 615 times. He was 6th in the league in attempts and 5th in the league in yards and 5th in touchdowns. So he's barely above breaking even. Granted there is a large gap between these guys and "average", but Manning and Rodgers threw for more yards and TDs with less attempts. Their receivers are good but not as good as this trio.

I'd rank Julio above DT easily. I'm guessing they both get around the same number of targets, but I could see Julio feasibly getting more targets than I project whereas I can't imagine DT gets more targets than last year now that Welker has arrived. He'll be doing good to keep all of his targets. However, Roddy got 179 targets just two years ago and Gonzo is getting old. Julio's 140 targets are not nearly as capped as DT's are.
So, you want Ryan to finish higher then 5th in passing yards and TDs in order to make the best of his opportunity? Keep in mind that Falcons went 13 and 3 (with one loss being week 17 when they rested guys). So teams tend to pass less when they're winning and when you look at the guys ahead of him in yards (Brady, Brees, Stafford, Romo) only one made the playoffs. Teams who are more likely to be playing catch up in the 4th (expect Brady but the Pats don't mind piling on). When you look at who finished ahead of Ryan in TDs, it's just a Hall of Fame list. Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady. It seems like Ryan is doing alright with his opportunities.

The NFC South will be improved over last year and I don't see Atlanta going 13-3. This might not mean that Ryan's attempts go up much but the distance of fourth quarter passes goes up and we all know who the deep ball goes to. It's a big difference between playing to run out the clock and playing against the clock.
I think he is saying "in relation to the attempts". regardless of if they are winning, take their foot off the gas, etc, if you throw the ball the 6th most times in the league, you expect a higher net return. The true elite qbs such as Rodgers does far more with less attempts. Its a relative thing.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
Disagree with Ryan being an average QB. Ryan spreads the ball around, and when you have two excellent receivers and perhaps the best TE of all time, you can't blame him. So of course Roddy and Tony G are going to limit Julio's upside to a certain degree. But I wouldn't rule out a 4700-40 year from Ryan.

That said, I agree with your projection. I have Julio at WR6 behind Calvin, Dez, Marshall, Green and D Thomas. The only real issue is that Julio is going to be up and down a little more than the others ahead of him. It seems as if one of Julio or Roddy had a big game every week, but not both.
I'm not blaming him for spreading it around, I'm blaming him for not doing more with his opportunity. That is the best trio in football right now and Ryan threw the ball 615 times. He was 6th in the league in attempts and 5th in the league in yards and 5th in touchdowns. So he's barely above breaking even. Granted there is a large gap between these guys and "average", but Manning and Rodgers threw for more yards and TDs with less attempts. Their receivers are good but not as good as this trio.

I'd rank Julio above DT easily. I'm guessing they both get around the same number of targets, but I could see Julio feasibly getting more targets than I project whereas I can't imagine DT gets more targets than last year now that Welker has arrived. He'll be doing good to keep all of his targets. However, Roddy got 179 targets just two years ago and Gonzo is getting old. Julio's 140 targets are not nearly as capped as DT's are.
So, you want Ryan to finish higher then 5th in passing yards and TDs in order to make the best of his opportunity? Keep in mind that Falcons went 13 and 3 (with one loss being week 17 when they rested guys). So teams tend to pass less when they're winning and when you look at the guys ahead of him in yards (Brady, Brees, Stafford, Romo) only one made the playoffs. Teams who are more likely to be playing catch up in the 4th (expect Brady but the Pats don't mind piling on). When you look at who finished ahead of Ryan in TDs, it's just a Hall of Fame list. Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady. It seems like Ryan is doing alright with his opportunities.

The NFC South will be improved over last year and I don't see Atlanta going 13-3. This might not mean that Ryan's attempts go up much but the distance of fourth quarter passes goes up and we all know who the deep ball goes to. It's a big difference between playing to run out the clock and playing against the clock.
um... Is this a serious post? It doesn't matter what teams tend to do or what their record was, it is a fact that he finished 6th in passing attempts.

I agree he's doing alright with his opportunities. That's what I'd expect out of an average QB. I expect the QB with the most attempts to finish with the most yards and the guy withe least attempts to finish with the least yards. Ryan pretty much fell right in line with that which is why I consider him overrated as a QB. He had the 6th most attempts and 1st best receiving corps. He finished 5th.

 

Borden

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
Disagree with Ryan being an average QB. Ryan spreads the ball around, and when you have two excellent receivers and perhaps the best TE of all time, you can't blame him. So of course Roddy and Tony G are going to limit Julio's upside to a certain degree. But I wouldn't rule out a 4700-40 year from Ryan.

That said, I agree with your projection. I have Julio at WR6 behind Calvin, Dez, Marshall, Green and D Thomas. The only real issue is that Julio is going to be up and down a little more than the others ahead of him. It seems as if one of Julio or Roddy had a big game every week, but not both.
I'm not blaming him for spreading it around, I'm blaming him for not doing more with his opportunity. That is the best trio in football right now and Ryan threw the ball 615 times. He was 6th in the league in attempts and 5th in the league in yards and 5th in touchdowns. So he's barely above breaking even. Granted there is a large gap between these guys and "average", but Manning and Rodgers threw for more yards and TDs with less attempts. Their receivers are good but not as good as this trio.

I'd rank Julio above DT easily. I'm guessing they both get around the same number of targets, but I could see Julio feasibly getting more targets than I project whereas I can't imagine DT gets more targets than last year now that Welker has arrived. He'll be doing good to keep all of his targets. However, Roddy got 179 targets just two years ago and Gonzo is getting old. Julio's 140 targets are not nearly as capped as DT's are.
So, you want Ryan to finish higher then 5th in passing yards and TDs in order to make the best of his opportunity? Keep in mind that Falcons went 13 and 3 (with one loss being week 17 when they rested guys). So teams tend to pass less when they're winning and when you look at the guys ahead of him in yards (Brady, Brees, Stafford, Romo) only one made the playoffs. Teams who are more likely to be playing catch up in the 4th (expect Brady but the Pats don't mind piling on). When you look at who finished ahead of Ryan in TDs, it's just a Hall of Fame list. Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Brady. It seems like Ryan is doing alright with his opportunities.

The NFC South will be improved over last year and I don't see Atlanta going 13-3. This might not mean that Ryan's attempts go up much but the distance of fourth quarter passes goes up and we all know who the deep ball goes to. It's a big difference between playing to run out the clock and playing against the clock.
um... Is this a serious post? It doesn't matter what teams tend to do or what their record was, it is a fact that he finished 6th in passing attempts.

I agree he's doing alright with his opportunities. That's what I'd expect out of an average QB. I expect the QB with the most attempts to finish with the most yards and the guy withe least attempts to finish with the least yards. Ryan pretty much fell right in line with that which is why I consider him overrated as a QB. He had the 6th most attempts and 1st best receiving corps. He finished 5th.
I'm not going to derail the Julio Jones thread with just Matt Ryan talk. I'm sure there is another thread that we can discuss this in.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11
Not true at all- he gets plenty of short looks. I do agree that he isn't going to be super consistent from week to week, but that goes for most WRs.
Agreed. Heck, he had TDs from 8, 9, 11 and 3 yards last year, and they seem to like to throw him some short passes which he thens turns into big gains. Sure, they don't always turn into big gainers - like when he had 4-14 in the Denver game - but he is not just a deep threat. I agree with a lot of what else Art said, though.
Thanks,

He doesn't get plenty of short looks. He gets the occasional screen pass but other then the redzone you don't see many hitchs or slants for Julio, the underneath routes (ins and outs) are dominated by gonzo and Roddy runs the outside comeback route and drag. Julio runs mostly post and fly patterns

He is a great jump ball player so he is great in the redzone but believe me and if you don't believe me take a took at the play by plays such as this

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012090908/2012/REG1/falcons@chiefs?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012102805/2012/REG8/falcons@eagles?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

Not one pass thrown to him that wasn't over 10 yards or missed incomplete deep left

I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes

 
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humpback

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11
Not true at all- he gets plenty of short looks. I do agree that he isn't going to be super consistent from week to week, but that goes for most WRs.
Agreed. Heck, he had TDs from 8, 9, 11 and 3 yards last year, and they seem to like to throw him some short passes which he thens turns into big gains. Sure, they don't always turn into big gainers - like when he had 4-14 in the Denver game - but he is not just a deep threat. I agree with a lot of what else Art said, though.
Thanks,

He doesn't get plenty of short looks. He gets the occasional screen pass but other then the redzone you don't see many hitchs or slants for Julio, the underneath routes (ins and outs) are dominated by gonzo and Roddy runs the outside comeback route and drag. Julio runs mostly post and fly patterns

He is a great jump ball player so he is great in the redzone but believe me and if you don't believe me take a took at the play by plays such as this

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012090908/2012/REG1/falcons@chiefs?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012102805/2012/REG8/falcons@eagles?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

Not one pass thrown to him that wasn't over 10 yards or missed incomplete deep left

I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes
He was 7th in the NFL for passes caught behind the line of scrimmage by WRs. Out of his 79 receptions last year, 50 of them came either behind the LOS or from 1-10 yards, a higher percentage than White. He had zero catches on passes thrown 41+ yards, White had 3.

Your last two sentences are completely bizarre since in the first link you provided, his 2 TDs came on an 8 yd pass and a bubble screen behind the LOS that he ran in for a TD. He averaged over 3 receptions per game on short passes.

I agree with most of what you are posting, but you're just wrong about the short stuff.

 
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Art Vandalay

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11
Not true at all- he gets plenty of short looks. I do agree that he isn't going to be super consistent from week to week, but that goes for most WRs.
Agreed. Heck, he had TDs from 8, 9, 11 and 3 yards last year, and they seem to like to throw him some short passes which he thens turns into big gains. Sure, they don't always turn into big gainers - like when he had 4-14 in the Denver game - but he is not just a deep threat. I agree with a lot of what else Art said, though.
Thanks,

He doesn't get plenty of short looks. He gets the occasional screen pass but other then the redzone you don't see many hitchs or slants for Julio, the underneath routes (ins and outs) are dominated by gonzo and Roddy runs the outside comeback route and drag. Julio runs mostly post and fly patterns

He is a great jump ball player so he is great in the redzone but believe me and if you don't believe me take a took at the play by plays such as this

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012090908/2012/REG1/falcons@chiefs?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012102805/2012/REG8/falcons@eagles?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

Not one pass thrown to him that wasn't over 10 yards or missed incomplete deep left

I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes
He was 7th in the NFL for passes caught behind the line of scrimmage by WRs. Out of his 79 receptions last year, 50 of them came either behind the LOS or from 1-10 yards, a higher percentage than White. He had zero catches on passes thrown 41+ yards, White had 3.

Your last two sentences are completely bizarre since in the first link you provided, his 2 TDs came on an 8 yd pass and a bubble screen behind the LOS that he ran in for a TD. He averaged over 3 receptions per game on short passes.

I agree with most of what you are posting, but you're just wrong about the short stuff.
Like I sd passes behind the line aka screen pass (bubble screen) andon the goaline he catches short passes just not in the middle of the field, Julio had plenty of long tds and I would bet that they travelled more the 41 yards(not sure where this stat is from) but either way with YAC I know he had a 63 yarder who cares if it was in the air or not.

Not fighting with you

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
Either way I stand by my projections as I can't see him increasing his reception enough to approach anything over 1300 yards.

With Jackson an improved Turner and White and Gonzo in the more then 12 tds is a stretch.

So a ceiling of 90 1300 and 12 and a floor of 80 1100 and 10

 

meyerj31

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
I can't imagine 10 QBs being taken off the board in a startup NFL draft over Matt Ryan. He's young, runs an NFL offense extremely efficiently, and can make every throw on the field. Ryan is on the verge of "The Man" status along with Eli, Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, & Ben. Due to age he might even be taken before a couple of those guys. Have to wait a few years to coronate any of the newbies (Kaep, RG3, Luck, Wilson), but even including these he'd be off the board by the 10th QB.

It's a joke comment to say Julio is limited by Ryan. Mediocre/bad QB play is what leads to Fitzgerald with 60 receptions.

Ryan had two guys in the top 12 in fantasy production last year - that's f***ing awesome!!! What more are you expecting???

You sometimes have some good posts Ninja but if you just posted less than once every ten minutes maybe they would be of better quality.

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes
Then how did he have 4 catches for 14 yards against the Broncos? I remember watching that game and I am pretty sure none of those were non-short passes that Julio ran backwards 10 yards on for minimal gains. :lol:

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
I can't imagine 10 QBs being taken off the board in a startup NFL draft over Matt Ryan. He's young, runs an NFL offense extremely efficiently, and can make every throw on the field. Ryan is on the verge of "The Man" status along with Eli, Peyton, Rodgers, Brees, Brady, & Ben. Due to age he might even be taken before a couple of those guys. Have to wait a few years to coronate any of the newbies (Kaep, RG3, Luck, Wilson), but even including these he'd be off the board around number 10.
What does a startup NFL draft have anything do to with it? I'm talking about right now. I think you could plug in Philip Rivers on that team and get better numbers and I'm not even a Rivers fan. Situation makes much more difference than people like to believe. Rivers has surpassed 8.0 ypa three times in his career. If Ryan doesn't do it this year, he never will. Think about putting Matt Ryan on the Ravens and only giving him 530 attempts. No one would think he's good. Compiling stats in good situations really warps our perceptions of players.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes
Then how did he have 4 catches for 14 yards against the Broncos? I remember watching that game and I am pretty sure none of those were non-short passes that Julio ran backwards 10 yards on for minimal gains. :lol:
Because you didn't read I said no screen passes, here's a look at the game you are referring to. Please note the one catch for 6 yards. They are in shotgun so its hard to tell from this but it also could have been a screen pass. and rushed out of bounds see as they were coming back I assume it wasn't a pass towards the middle as they needed to stop the clock.

1-10-DEN 17 (10:36) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to DEN 19 for -2 yards (22-T.Porter; 92-E.Dumervil).

(9:58) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.

(8:13) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones. PENALTY on DEN-32-T.Carter, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at ATL 30 - No Play.

2-12-ATL 28 (14:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to ATL 33 for 10 yards (32-T.Carter).

3-7-ATL 6 (6:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.

3-5-ATL 25 (2:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones to ATL 31 for 6 yards (26-R.Moore).

 

humpback

Footballguy
I owned Julio for his first two years in the league(recently traded him for Spiller) so I have watched most of his games so I feel like I have a good opinion and an unbiased one(rare in these forms to have non owners comment).

Julio gets the majority of the deep looks in the offense and picks up chucks of yards at a t time. Very rarely does he catch the ball from 1-10 yards. When you combine the lack of short looks and other targets in the offense its hard to imagine Julio eclipsing 85 catches. Jackson is great out of the back field and for the first time they have a back they can dump it down to not on 1st and 2nd down.

Julio remains an elite deep threat although his hands are sometimes questionable and cause him to leave yards and td's on the field.

To benefit from a player like Julio on your team you need to compliment him with a consistent performer because of the swings he provides.

I don't see his YPC coming down if anything I can see it going up with less looks to an again Roddy and Harry Douglas.

With more reliance on him being the object to stretch the field Roddy and Gonzo and a running game being used in the redzone I think it caps his td potential.

85 1275 11
Not true at all- he gets plenty of short looks. I do agree that he isn't going to be super consistent from week to week, but that goes for most WRs.
Agreed. Heck, he had TDs from 8, 9, 11 and 3 yards last year, and they seem to like to throw him some short passes which he thens turns into big gains. Sure, they don't always turn into big gainers - like when he had 4-14 in the Denver game - but he is not just a deep threat. I agree with a lot of what else Art said, though.
Thanks,

He doesn't get plenty of short looks. He gets the occasional screen pass but other then the redzone you don't see many hitchs or slants for Julio, the underneath routes (ins and outs) are dominated by gonzo and Roddy runs the outside comeback route and drag. Julio runs mostly post and fly patterns

He is a great jump ball player so he is great in the redzone but believe me and if you don't believe me take a took at the play by plays such as this

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012090908/2012/REG1/falcons@chiefs?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=highlights&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012102805/2012/REG8/falcons@eagles?icampaign=GC_schedule_rr#menu=gameinfo&tab=analyze&analyze=playbyplay

Not one pass thrown to him that wasn't over 10 yards or missed incomplete deep left

I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes
He was 7th in the NFL for passes caught behind the line of scrimmage by WRs. Out of his 79 receptions last year, 50 of them came either behind the LOS or from 1-10 yards, a higher percentage than White. He had zero catches on passes thrown 41+ yards, White had 3.

Your last two sentences are completely bizarre since in the first link you provided, his 2 TDs came on an 8 yd pass and a bubble screen behind the LOS that he ran in for a TD. He averaged over 3 receptions per game on short passes.

I agree with most of what you are posting, but you're just wrong about the short stuff.
Like I sd passes behind the line aka screen pass (bubble screen) andon the goaline he catches short passes just not in the middle of the field, Julio had plenty of long tds and I would bet that they travelled more the 41 yards(not sure where this stat is from) but either way with YAC I know he had a 63 yarder who cares if it was in the air or not.

Not fighting with you
"Like you said" where? Anyway- sure, if you don't count all of his short passes, then all he gets are long ones. Why on earth would you not count those though?

Of course it matters if it was in the air or not when you've been arguing that he doesn't get short looks. If he catches a 8 yard pass and gets tackled right away or if he catches a 8 yard pass and breaks it for 80 yards- it's still a short pass.

Fact- he gets plenty of short passes, contrary to what you said. People are going to start ignoring the other things you've said if you keep arguing the opposite.

 

SaintsInDome2006

Footballguy
My main point about Julio is I wish Cleveland had drafted him.

They got (is this right?):

Phil Taylor

Greg Little

Marecic (RB)

Weeden

JM Johnson (LB)

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I have checked every game and there isn't one game all year where he caught or was even targeted twice on two short passes
Then how did he have 4 catches for 14 yards against the Broncos? I remember watching that game and I am pretty sure none of those were non-short passes that Julio ran backwards 10 yards on for minimal gains. :lol:
Because you didn't read I said no screen passes, here's a look at the game you are referring to. Please note the one catch for 6 yards. They are in shotgun so its hard to tell from this but it also could have been a screen pass. and rushed out of bounds see as they were coming back I assume it wasn't a pass towards the middle as they needed to stop the clock.

1-10-DEN 17 (10:36) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to DEN 19 for -2 yards (22-T.Porter; 92-E.Dumervil).

(9:58) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.

(8:13) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones. PENALTY on DEN-32-T.Carter, Defensive Pass Interference, 18 yards, enforced at ATL 30 - No Play.

2-12-ATL 28 (14:12) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short left to 11-J.Jones to ATL 33 for 10 yards (32-T.Carter).

3-7-ATL 6 (6:30) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete deep left to 11-J.Jones.

3-5-ATL 25 (2:35) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 11-J.Jones to ATL 31 for 6 yards (26-R.Moore).
Um, what? The Falcons were not coming back (they never trailed in that game), and you are making assumptions. ANd I am not even sure why you are arguing this minute point. Julio gets thrown a fair amount of short passes. Not sure why you are digging so hard in arguing otherwise.

 

hauser42

Footballguy
Easily all the tools and surronding cast for Jones to be a top 5 WR.

There is a couple issues though with Jones.

1, Bit of an injury history that has kept him out of the field at times.

2. Lot targets getting spread around with Gonzo, White and other parts of the offense.

3. Falcons upgraded at RB with Jackson and should allow them to move the ball on the ground better.

Even though Jackson will take some of the plays away from the passing attack, he will also take some of the coverage off the passing game. Teams will be sneaking safeties up to stop running game and open Jones up for deep balls.

Jones should get 85 catches with 1200 yards and 10 tds this season. He will have some great weeks and some stinkers. This is not his doing just how the offense is setup. The hot hand and better matchups in this offense will carry the team for each week and there are a lot of guys to get hot.

Matt Ryan is no average QB he is a top end guy with a great offense around him those bashing him should look at A Rod and the talent he has around him. These two are very similar with great offenses to run and I am a diehard Packer fan.

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
Easily all the tools and surronding cast for Jones to be a top 5 WR.

There is a couple issues though with Jones.

1, Bit of an injury history that has kept him out of the field at times.

2. Lot targets getting spread around with Gonzo, White and other parts of the offense.

3. Falcons upgraded at RB with Jackson and should allow them to move the ball on the ground better.

Even though Jackson will take some of the plays away from the passing attack, he will also take some of the coverage off the passing game. Teams will be sneaking safeties up to stop running game and open Jones up for deep balls.

Jones should get 85 catches with 1200 yards and 10 tds this season. He will have some great weeks and some stinkers. This is not his doing just how the offense is setup. The hot hand and better matchups in this offense will carry the team for each week and there are a lot of guys to get hot.

Matt Ryan is no average QB he is a top end guy with a great offense around him those bashing him should look at A Rod and the talent he has around him. These two are very similar with great offenses to run and I am a diehard Packer fan.
Please expound on how Ryan is even in the same galaxy as Rodgers.

 

Rhythmdoctor

Footballguy
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
You're wrong. Tom Brady didn't throw for 4,000+ yards until his 5th season as a starter (6th in the league) and didn't throw for 30 or more TDs until his 7th season as a starter (8th in the league). Ryan accomplished 4,000+ in his 4th season and threw for 30+ in his 5th season.

If you do any sort of trend analysis, you'll see that Ryan is on the path to greatness and is just entering the prime of his career. He is in no way just an average QB. I hope I remember to bump your post in 3 years when it's obvious to the FF masses that Ryan is an elite QB.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor said:
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
You're wrong. Tom Brady didn't throw for 4,000+ yards until his 5th season as a starter (6th in the league) and didn't throw for 30 or more TDs until his 7th season as a starter (8th in the league). Ryan accomplished 4,000+ in his 4th season and threw for 30+ in his 5th season.If you do any sort of trend analysis, you'll see that Ryan is on the path to greatness and is just entering the prime of his career. He is in no way just an average QB. I hope I remember to bump your post in 3 years when it's obvious to the FF masses that Ryan is an elite QB.
That doesn't really address his point though. He's saying that Ryan has an elite supporting cast and should be doing more with. Brady didnt have half the offensive fire power of Atl his first 5 years in the NFL. I'm not saying I totally agree with his point. This just doesn't do anything to change it. I agree that Ryan is a bit overrated as a player. I'm not as far down that path as Ninja. As for Jones.... I like most everyone else love Jones this year and for years to come. The only better young WR in the game is AJ Green from my perspective and both are elite talents. Although Jones is most utilized as the deep threat in Atl right now I believe he is a well polished WR who is capable of doing almost everything. For his long term potential having White and Gonzo around has to be a good thing. Short term it limits his upside a bit. None the less I think Atl is going to continue to throw the ball a lot despite winning a lot of games. I don't see them as a team that necessarily takes their foot off the game a whole lot. I other words though there a lot of moths to feed, the table is large and I think everyone gets "theirs."

80 receptions, 1240, 11 TDs

Very similar numbers to last year but slightly better.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor said:
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
You're wrong. Tom Brady didn't throw for 4,000+ yards until his 5th season as a starter (6th in the league) and didn't throw for 30 or more TDs until his 7th season as a starter (8th in the league). Ryan accomplished 4,000+ in his 4th season and threw for 30+ in his 5th season.

If you do any sort of trend analysis, you'll see that Ryan is on the path to greatness and is just entering the prime of his career. He is in no way just an average QB. I hope I remember to bump your post in 3 years when it's obvious to the FF masses that Ryan is an elite QB.
Really? Those are the situations you are going to compare? First of all, you completely missed the point about supporting cast. Brady never had a trio like Ryan has. Moss + Welker was nice, but throwing 10 yard passes to Welker is not how you rack up yards and touchdowns. Second, this is a different era. You know how many 4,000 yard passers there were in 2001? Two. 2002? Four. 2011? Ten. 2012? Eleven. There were more 5,000 yard passer last year than there were 4,000 yard passers in 2001.

Ryan is not even close to elite. Considering there are 32 teams in the NFL, I think the top 11 are above average, the next 10 are average, and then there are 11 below average. I do not consider Ryan a top 11 QB. I do consider his situation #1, though. I really think he is of the same ilk as Flacco. The only difference is passing attempts, surrounding talent, and system. Flacco throws the ball less than Ryan and a third of his receptions have been to running backs in the Cam Cameron system.

Elite: Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Brady

Better than Ryan: Roethlisberger, Romo, Newton, Luck, Rivers

Probably Better: Griffin, Wilson

Sam Tier as Ryan: Eli, Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, Flacco, Freeman

Not sure where to put Kaepernick yet

Don't be too swayed by arbitrary stats like 4,000 yards. Keep in mind some guys throw the ball WAY less than Ryan (Rivers hit 4k with 478 attempts, Newton hit 4k with 517 attempts his rookie year, Ben hit 4.3k with only 506). And keep in mind that some guys are dealing with WAY less talent. You think Matt Ryan would magically eclipse 4,000 passing yards on the Steelers when throwing the ball 450 times a year with Hines Ward as your #1? Hell no.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor said:
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
You're wrong. Tom Brady didn't throw for 4,000+ yards until his 5th season as a starter (6th in the league) and didn't throw for 30 or more TDs until his 7th season as a starter (8th in the league). Ryan accomplished 4,000+ in his 4th season and threw for 30+ in his 5th season.

If you do any sort of trend analysis, you'll see that Ryan is on the path to greatness and is just entering the prime of his career. He is in no way just an average QB. I hope I remember to bump your post in 3 years when it's obvious to the FF masses that Ryan is an elite QB.
Really? Those are the situations you are going to compare? First of all, you completely missed the point about supporting cast. Brady never had a trio like Ryan has. Moss + Welker was nice, but throwing 10 yard passes to Welker is not how you rack up yards and touchdowns. Second, this is a different era. You know how many 4,000 yard passers there were in 2001? Two. 2002? Four. 2011? Ten. 2012? Eleven. There were more 5,000 yard passer last year than there were 4,000 yard passers in 2001.

Ryan is not even close to elite. Considering there are 32 teams in the NFL, I think the top 11 are above average, the next 10 are average, and then there are 11 below average. I do not consider Ryan a top 11 QB. I do consider his situation #1, though. I really think he is of the same ilk as Flacco. The only difference is passing attempts, surrounding talent, and system. Flacco throws the ball less than Ryan and a third of his receptions have been to running backs in the Cam Cameron system.

Elite: Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Brady

Better than Ryan: Roethlisberger, Romo, Newton, Luck, Rivers

Probably Better: Griffin, Wilson

Sam Tier as Ryan: Eli, Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, Flacco, Freeman

Not sure where to put Kaepernick yet

Don't be too swayed by arbitrary stats like 4,000 yards. Keep in mind some guys throw the ball WAY less than Ryan (Rivers hit 4k with 478 attempts, Newton hit 4k with 517 attempts his rookie year, Ben hit 4.3k with only 506). And keep in mind that some guys are dealing with WAY less talent. You think Matt Ryan would magically eclipse 4,000 passing yards on the Steelers when throwing the ball 450 times a year with Hines Ward as your #1? Hell no.
Following FFNinja I've come to see him as a guy I would want in every one of my leagues. He's ill informed but speaks as if we are all impressed when he rattles off a couple pointless stats. While everyone else is watching the game hes on his computer watching totals update.

To say Ryan isn't a very very good to elite QB is insane and don't just ask me PRO NFL scouts who liked him 3rd overall, wait even better let's ask the people hes plays against and ranked him 17th overall in the league on the NFL Top 100 this year, better yet Ill trust my eye to someone who can make all the throws and is a leader on the field.

He's also led the Falcons to numerous wins, division titles et al , are you going to try and use the playoff argument against him...well if you want to say he only puts up stats cause of his team then is it not fair to say the falcons lost as a team also.

Rivers better then Ryan is a joke and please please please stop trying to use your one Russell Wilson stat of 183 pass attempts how many times are you going to say that

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
I agree that Matt Ryan is an above average NFL quarterback, but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the NFL Network's top 100 considering the players who voted this year think Jacoby Jones is one of the 100 best players and Jimmy Graham is not.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
I agree that Matt Ryan is an above average NFL quarterback, but I wouldn't put a lot of stock in the NFL Network's top 100 considering the players who voted this year think Jacoby Jones is one of the 100 best players and Jimmy Graham is not.
I know Jacoby Jones above Harvin is a joke

 
I think the lowest TD projection for Julio so far is 10 TDs, up to 15. Whoah. Tough for WRs to get double digit TDs consistently, imo. See Calvin Johnson last year and every year of Andre Johnson's career. Calvin has gotten double digit TDs only half of the time, Larry Fitzgerald slightly less. Andre never. Not trying to cherry pick names, those were off the top of my head.

 
Also, I don't think it is outrageous to say that Ryan is a good but not elite QB, as ninja has been saying. I know that Matt Waldman would agree with him, and has stated it several times on the Audible. I'd put Ryan a tier higher than ninja did in his rankings, but who cares?

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor said:
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
You're wrong. Tom Brady didn't throw for 4,000+ yards until his 5th season as a starter (6th in the league) and didn't throw for 30 or more TDs until his 7th season as a starter (8th in the league). Ryan accomplished 4,000+ in his 4th season and threw for 30+ in his 5th season.

If you do any sort of trend analysis, you'll see that Ryan is on the path to greatness and is just entering the prime of his career. He is in no way just an average QB. I hope I remember to bump your post in 3 years when it's obvious to the FF masses that Ryan is an elite QB.
Really? Those are the situations you are going to compare? First of all, you completely missed the point about supporting cast. Brady never had a trio like Ryan has. Moss + Welker was nice, but throwing 10 yard passes to Welker is not how you rack up yards and touchdowns. Second, this is a different era. You know how many 4,000 yard passers there were in 2001? Two. 2002? Four. 2011? Ten. 2012? Eleven. There were more 5,000 yard passer last year than there were 4,000 yard passers in 2001.

Ryan is not even close to elite. Considering there are 32 teams in the NFL, I think the top 11 are above average, the next 10 are average, and then there are 11 below average. I do not consider Ryan a top 11 QB. I do consider his situation #1, though. I really think he is of the same ilk as Flacco. The only difference is passing attempts, surrounding talent, and system. Flacco throws the ball less than Ryan and a third of his receptions have been to running backs in the Cam Cameron system.

Elite: Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Brady

Better than Ryan: Roethlisberger, Romo, Newton, Luck, Rivers

Probably Better: Griffin, Wilson

Sam Tier as Ryan: Eli, Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, Flacco, Freeman

Not sure where to put Kaepernick yet

Don't be too swayed by arbitrary stats like 4,000 yards. Keep in mind some guys throw the ball WAY less than Ryan (Rivers hit 4k with 478 attempts, Newton hit 4k with 517 attempts his rookie year, Ben hit 4.3k with only 506). And keep in mind that some guys are dealing with WAY less talent. You think Matt Ryan would magically eclipse 4,000 passing yards on the Steelers when throwing the ball 450 times a year with Hines Ward as your #1? Hell no.
Following FFNinja I've come to see him as a guy I would want in every one of my leagues. He's ill informed but speaks as if we are all impressed when he rattles off a couple pointless stats. While everyone else is watching the game hes on his computer watching totals update.

To say Ryan isn't a very very good to elite QB is insane and don't just ask me PRO NFL scouts who liked him 3rd overall, wait even better let's ask the people hes plays against and ranked him 17th overall in the league on the NFL Top 100 this year, better yet Ill trust my eye to someone who can make all the throws and is a leader on the field.

He's also led the Falcons to numerous wins, division titles et al , are you going to try and use the playoff argument against him...well if you want to say he only puts up stats cause of his team then is it not fair to say the falcons lost as a team also.

Rivers better then Ryan is a joke and please please please stop trying to use your one Russell Wilson stat of 183 pass attempts how many times are you going to say that
You are the same guy that hates math and ridicules people who use it. Instead citing we should just trust you that studs will perform. You are not Art Vandalay. You are Walter from The Big Lebowski. You keep it simple and can't adjust when something changes. Hint: if you keep telling people their mistake is overthinking, you might be underthinking.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Also, I don't think it is outrageous to say that Ryan is a good but not elite QB, as ninja has been saying. I know that Matt Waldman would agree with him, and has stated it several times on the Audible. I'd put Ryan a tier higher than ninja did in his rankings, but who cares?
I did not realize this, but it is just the confirmation bias I've been looking for! I've been convinced for years that he's in a tier of his own as far as fantasy football writers player analysis.

 

Bayhawks

Footballguy
Rhythmdoctor said:
He's a top 5 talent, but he'll always be held back by his QB. I know people love Ryan, but he's just an average QB in a top flight situation. Almost anybody throwing the ball 600 times to White, Jones, and Gonzo is going to put up some stats. But he doesn't appear to have what it takes to be a 8+ ypa 40 TD guy. Unless he locks onto Julio like Stafford does Calvin, Julio isn't going to have Calvin upside. He played 16 games last year but only saw 128 targets. Last year White got 143. This year I expect those numbers to flip flop. I don't expect Ryan to throw additional TDs, so I'm going to leave Julio with a studly 33% of his team's receiving TDs.

140 targets x 61% = 85 rec x 15 ypr = 1275 yds 11 TD
You're wrong. Tom Brady didn't throw for 4,000+ yards until his 5th season as a starter (6th in the league) and didn't throw for 30 or more TDs until his 7th season as a starter (8th in the league). Ryan accomplished 4,000+ in his 4th season and threw for 30+ in his 5th season.

If you do any sort of trend analysis, you'll see that Ryan is on the path to greatness and is just entering the prime of his career. He is in no way just an average QB. I hope I remember to bump your post in 3 years when it's obvious to the FF masses that Ryan is an elite QB.
Really? Those are the situations you are going to compare? First of all, you completely missed the point about supporting cast. Brady never had a trio like Ryan has. Moss + Welker was nice, but throwing 10 yard passes to Welker is not how you rack up yards and touchdowns. Second, this is a different era. You know how many 4,000 yard passers there were in 2001? Two. 2002? Four. 2011? Ten. 2012? Eleven. There were more 5,000 yard passer last year than there were 4,000 yard passers in 2001.

Ryan is not even close to elite. Considering there are 32 teams in the NFL, I think the top 11 are above average, the next 10 are average, and then there are 11 below average. I do not consider Ryan a top 11 QB. I do consider his situation #1, though. I really think he is of the same ilk as Flacco. The only difference is passing attempts, surrounding talent, and system. Flacco throws the ball less than Ryan and a third of his receptions have been to running backs in the Cam Cameron system.

Elite: Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, Brady

Better than Ryan: Roethlisberger, Romo, Newton, Luck, Rivers

Probably Better: Griffin, Wilson

Sam Tier as Ryan: Eli, Stafford, Cutler, Schaub, Flacco, Freeman

Not sure where to put Kaepernick yet

Don't be too swayed by arbitrary stats like 4,000 yards. Keep in mind some guys throw the ball WAY less than Ryan (Rivers hit 4k with 478 attempts, Newton hit 4k with 517 attempts his rookie year, Ben hit 4.3k with only 506). And keep in mind that some guys are dealing with WAY less talent. You think Matt Ryan would magically eclipse 4,000 passing yards on the Steelers when throwing the ball 450 times a year with Hines Ward as your #1? Hell no.
No offense, but this doesn't make sense. If you want to argue that Ryan isn't "elite," that's one thing (although I'd disagree), but to suggest that there are between 11-17 QBs better than him is laughable.

You list Brees, Peyton, Rodgers, and Brady as elite, and cite Ryan's "situation" as the only reason he "compiles" stats.

Brees' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He has Colston, Jimmy Graham, Darren Sproles, and a system that lets him throw the ball 40 times almost every game.

Rodgers' situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He had/has Greg Jennings, Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jermichael Finley, a crap running game and a HC who relies on Rodgers.

Peyton situation is comparable/better than Ryan. He IS the offense in Denver. He essentially calls the plays on the field. Thomas and Decker aren't a bad WR combo, either.

Brady's situation is comparable/better than Ryan. Gronk, Hernandez, Welker, plus a coach who thinks you should treat a 28 point lead like you're down by 10 and keep throwing? QBs probably hate that kind of game plan.

So you have these QBs as elite. Each of them are more "veteran" than Ryan (although Rodgers became the starter in Ryan's rookie year). All their "situations" are comparable.

None of those QBs had a higher completion percentage than Ryan in 2012, only two had a higher YPA, & only two had more passing yards. Ryan had the fewest passing TDs amongst the five, but of the other 4, Manning only exceeded Ryan's 32 TD passes once in his first 5 years, it took Rodgers 4 years (as a starter) to hit that mark, and Brady and Brees didn't hit that number in their first 5 years.

The fact is that Ryan is very close to that group, if not a part of it. The only thing holding him back is TDs. If he can throw 3-5 more TDs this year (which I think he can/will, based on becoming more experienced, and his career progression thus far), while maintaining (if not improving) those other numbers, he will be solidly in the elite tier.

Since I expect Jones to replace White as the #1 option this year, I'll project:

160 targets

89 catches (56% catch rate)

1350 yards (15.2 YPR)]

13 TDs

That's hardly being "held back" by his QB.

 
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meyerj31

Footballguy
At some point Roddy and Gonzo are going to be marginalized by Julio. I am betting it is this year.
These comments I really don't understand.

If, say, Julio was on the Colts this year instead of, say, Hilton. Whom would you rather take for ADP .... Julio in the 2nd or Reggie Wayne in the 5th?

Call me crazy but in PPR I would rather have Wayne in the 5th. Julio will be facing double coverage all year and Wayne will pile up intermediate routes and receptions all year. Calibrate this with Roddy, whom is still on top of his game at 30 years old. Roddy is going in the 4th ... do you want a top flight WR whom is seeing single coverage all year, or Julio? When you can get Roddy CHEAPER than Julio? Roddy is still the play this year and I think he'll continue to be the play until he leaves the Falcons. Even if he loses a step (ala Wayne) I'll still take him at his ADP over Julio.

Who is the better NFL player? Not even close, it's Julio. But when it comes to fantasy I'll play the elite talent surrounding him at their ADP.

 
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