Player Spotlight: Kellen Winslow (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kellen Winslow, TE, Cleveland Browns

Player Page Link: Kellen Winslow Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[redman]

I think he's due for a good season. Say what you will about him, he's got a lot to prove and he certainly has the talent. I've heard not a single negative thing about his recovery from his injuries. There are also not a lot of tremendous receiving options around him such that he can't get a lot of looks.

On the downside, he's still essentially a rookie in terms of his playing time, albeit one with two years of study of the NFL playbook. His pedigree will also help him hit the floor running.

50/550/6

 

[Rev]

There can be no doubt that Kellen Winslow is a pro-bowl talent. His physicality, hands, and mental toughness could very well propell him to the top of the TE rankings. Yet, he remains a player with a significant degree of liability, especially regarding his common sense on motorcycles, recent injuries, explosive personality, and the Browns' young and mediocre offensive unit. Winslow should be in the top 10 or 15 for TEs, but he must heal completely and demonstrate the maturity that is needed at the NFL level.

Till then: 56/660/4

 

[diesel7982]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

 

[Bizkiteer]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

Ridiculous! This type of post does nothing, but show someone's personal feeling for a player and not their situation or talent will provide.80/925/8

KW2 will be the main target for Cleveland. Even when Braylon gets back, he'll be rusty and won't command as much attention. Considering that KW2 can lineup anywhere (TE or WR), matchups will be tuff for defenses. Add that he has already built some chemistry in the off-season w/ Fry and even has ties w/ Dorsey from college, if Fry gets hurt. He will be the primary weapon in the red zone too and most LB'ers will have too much trouble covering him.

I don't think it's unrealistic that he will put up similar numbers to Shockey in yardage and Gates in target/receptions. Though his TD's will not be as grand due to Cleveland's overall offensive woes.

 

[Fantasy_Freak]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

 

[Bankerguy]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

Ridiculous! This type of post does nothing, but show someone's personal feeling for a player and not their situation or talent will provide.80/925/8

KW2 will be the main target for Cleveland. Even when Braylon gets back, he'll be rusty and won't command as much attention. Considering that KW2 can lineup anywhere (TE or WR), matchups will be tuff for defenses. Add that he has already built some chemistry in the off-season w/ Fry and even has ties w/ Dorsey from college, if Fry gets hurt. He will be the primary weapon in the red zone too and most LB'ers will have too much trouble covering him.

I don't think it's unrealistic that he will put up similar numbers to Shockey in yardage and Gates in target/receptions. Though his TD's will not be as grand due to Cleveland's overall offensive woes.

Wow.....Going from a somewhat ignorant post to one with mad man love.

The guys is a heck of a talent. He still has lots to learn, he in essence is still a rookie. Cleveland will be improved offensively, although the QB situation is still a bit shaky.

No reason to think that Winslow couldn't hit:

42

490

4

 

[Jon_Moore]

I like Winslow a ton. The kid came into the league with all-world talent. He was set to be the next GREAT NFL Tight-End. Supposedly, the Redskins had stated they would take him, and then passed, Letting him fall to Cleveland. I'd say that left at least a small chip on his shoulder.

He Broke his leg in 2004, and I believe it was a torn ACL last year resulting from the motorcyle incident. All the critics have had open season on this kid for 2 seasons.

Winslow was a cocky son of a gun. I have to believe he's got a new even bigger chip on his shoulder. The reports all say he's humble now. He's saying and doing all the right things. He's working hard, and I'm sure he's out to prove alot.

You have to take into consideration the Browns' lack of a true #1 reciever. Edwards is looking like he'll be out til around week 6 or 7 at best. Winslow should instantly become the first option in the passing game. He's a good blocker too, so he should be on the field all day long.

I like Frye a good deal, but he's still young. It's cliche at this point, but young qbs have a tendency to dump it off to the Tight ends.

The Browns added some quality to the O-line this year too. If you factor in all of the losses and gains this offseason, the Browns offense should be somewhat better than it was last year IMO. They lost Bryant, and Edwards is out for part of this season, but they will have Winslow on the field to aid the passing game, and Jurevicius is a solid reciever. That being said, the TD's may be more than some expect.

The defense doesn't appear overly impressive...they should be looking to pass plenty.

Projections:

66 Receptions

12.2 yards per catch

805 yards

5 TDS---7 really isn't out of reach.

 

[Byron_nyc]

I love players with big chips on their shoulders. Here you've got a guy who had the highest expectations and let everyone down on. I love a player who's made a public apology before he's ever made a play. He's more motivated than Len Dale White. I am moderately bullish on the Cleveland offense this season, and KW2 is going to get a lot of looks. You can probably pick this guy up as TE 12 and he will outperform.

45 / 550 / 4.

 

[diesel7982]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

Ridiculous! This type of post does nothing, but show someone's personal feeling for a player and not their situation or talent will provide.80/925/8

KW2 will be the main target for Cleveland. Even when Braylon gets back, he'll be rusty and won't command as much attention. Considering that KW2 can lineup anywhere (TE or WR), matchups will be tuff for defenses. Add that he has already built some chemistry in the off-season w/ Fry and even has ties w/ Dorsey from college, if Fry gets hurt. He will be the primary weapon in the red zone too and most LB'ers will have too much trouble covering him.

I don't think it's unrealistic that he will put up similar numbers to Shockey in yardage and Gates in target/receptions. Though his TD's will not be as grand due to Cleveland's overall offensive woes.

Wow.....Going from a somewhat ignorant post to one with mad man love.

The guys is a heck of a talent. He still has lots to learn, he in essence is still a rookie. Cleveland will be improved offensively, although the QB situation is still a bit shaky.

No reason to think that Winslow couldn't hit:

42

490

4

I dont criticize some of the crap you put on this board. Id appreciate the same courtesy.

 

[redman]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

Ridiculous! This type of post does nothing, but show someone's personal feeling for a player and not their situation or talent will provide.80/925/8

KW2 will be the main target for Cleveland. Even when Braylon gets back, he'll be rusty and won't command as much attention. Considering that KW2 can lineup anywhere (TE or WR), matchups will be tuff for defenses. Add that he has already built some chemistry in the off-season w/ Fry and even has ties w/ Dorsey from college, if Fry gets hurt. He will be the primary weapon in the red zone too and most LB'ers will have too much trouble covering him.

I don't think it's unrealistic that he will put up similar numbers to Shockey in yardage and Gates in target/receptions. Though his TD's will not be as grand due to Cleveland's overall offensive woes.

Wow.....Going from a somewhat ignorant post to one with mad man love.

The guys is a heck of a talent. He still has lots to learn, he in essence is still a rookie. Cleveland will be improved offensively, although the QB situation is still a bit shaky.

No reason to think that Winslow couldn't hit:

42

490

4

I dont criticize some of the crap you put on this board. Id appreciate the same courtesy.

So I can get my projections right, in which game do you think he'll suffer the season-ending injury?

 

[Bankerguy]

10/125/1 and a season ending injury, preferably from a vicious block from behind on an INT return, in week 3, by a defensive lineman screaming I'm a SOLDIER as he hits him.

Ridiculous! This type of post does nothing, but show someone's personal feeling for a player and not their situation or talent will provide.80/925/8

KW2 will be the main target for Cleveland. Even when Braylon gets back, he'll be rusty and won't command as much attention. Considering that KW2 can lineup anywhere (TE or WR), matchups will be tuff for defenses. Add that he has already built some chemistry in the off-season w/ Fry and even has ties w/ Dorsey from college, if Fry gets hurt. He will be the primary weapon in the red zone too and most LB'ers will have too much trouble covering him.

I don't think it's unrealistic that he will put up similar numbers to Shockey in yardage and Gates in target/receptions. Though his TD's will not be as grand due to Cleveland's overall offensive woes.

Wow.....Going from a somewhat ignorant post to one with mad man love.

The guys is a heck of a talent. He still has lots to learn, he in essence is still a rookie. Cleveland will be improved offensively, although the QB situation is still a bit shaky.

No reason to think that Winslow couldn't hit:

42

490

4

I dont criticize some of the crap you put on this board. Id appreciate the same courtesy.

So I can get my projections right, in which game do you think he'll suffer the season-ending injury?

 

[Musesboy]

Kellen Winslow could emerge as a top three TE or he could struggle to make the top 15. There is such a large margin for error because he has almost no experience of playing at the top level.

Winslow was heavily hyped when he came out of college and was the sixth overall pick by the Browns. The first TE taken in the draft often emerges as the best of the class. It seems to be one of the easiest positions to predict. In 2000, Bubba Franks was taken with the 14th pick, and was the best available that year. In 2001 Todd Heap was taken at 31 and Alge Crumpler at 35, and both have enjoyed much more success than other TEs drafted that year. Jeremy Shockey was drafted 14th in 2002 and was the best that year. Dallas Clark was the top TE in 2003 but he has arguably been outperformed by L.J. Smith and Jason Witten, although Clark may have more talent play for play. In 2005, Heath Miller was selected at 30 overall and has been the best of his class so far. So it is reasonable to expect Kellen Winslow to succeed considering he was picked so early.

The Browns are in a mess at receiver. Braylon Edwards is not expected to be ready for the first 6-8 weeks of the season, so newly-signed Joe Jurevicius should be the main threat until Edwards returns. Winslow looks to be in the ideal situation from a fantasy perspective. Most elite TEs play on teams that have no more than one top player at WR. While Winslow will have a lot to learn, he will at least be familiar with the system after being on the team for two years.

Charlie Frye will start at QB. He was forced into action in his rookie season but did much better than most. He completed 59.8% of his passes and gained more than 6 yards per attempt. QBs tend to improve significantly in their second year as starter, and so Frye might be a reasonable option for the Browns.

With Edwards out at the start of the season, it's possible that Winslow will be used extensively, and he could even line up as a wide receiver on some plays. Although Winslow has missed two years, he is still only 23 years old and will have time to make his mark in the NFL.

Prediction

55 receptions 650 yards 4 TDs

 

[Cool in the pocket]

With Braylon out for a while and no real #1 WR, KW will have the opp to justify his high draft slot and help people forget about his immaturity. He has a young developing QB and a decent OL that could be pretty good if they gel. That being said, I see this unit as a better run blocking unit than a pass blocking one. This should bode well for Droughns. The TE group is very deep this year IMHO as I see Gates sliding down a touch (still TE1 though) with many others capable of putting up top 5 numbers. His current ADP is early round 9 which is ahead of Miller, Watson, Troupe.. all of which I think have a higher floor than KW. This is not to mention KW has virtually no experience and has yet to play after his most recent injury. You'll probably see flashes of what could be, but with the depth at TE this year and his current ADP, I'll prolly be passing on him.

47 catches, 510 yards, 4 TD's

 

[TwinTurbo]

I'm targeting KW2 in all my drafts. I don't like the guy's personality or attitude, but I think he offers excellent value and will put up strong numbers this year. He's going to got a lot of looks from Frye, so I expect him to put up decent numbers in PPR leagues.

 

[joffer]

Ridiculous! This type of post does nothing, but show someone's personal feeling for a player and not their situation or talent will provide.

80/925/8

40/427/3

the rookie TE curve is one you have to learn on the field. He's basically still a rookie.

 

[ffweasel]

He's basically still a rookie.

And yet there are those that will argue in opposition when it is Philip Rivers instead of KW. Hijack over...The situation is too murky with a young QB, top WR recovering from injury, WR from another team coming over and starting, not to mention that Kellen is unproven so far. I'll reserve my ranking for now as it wouldn't be based on anything concrete.

 

[Brewtown]

There are a lot of servicable/average TE's out there. My strategy in redrafts will be to wait on TE and draft K2. You won't have to draft him that high and you can fill other positions by waiting on TE. The second part of my strategy will be to also draft another servicable TE later (Alex Smith/Troupe/or Hilton). This will assure that my team will get average TE performance from the TE position. It also gives me tremendous upside in having K2. I firmly believe that he can be the 2nd best fantasy TE this year, and you won't have to use a high pick to get him.

This guy is gonna be a beast and he is MOTIVATED! Charlie Frye is gonna fall in love with this guy!

75-800-7 TD

 

[rzrback77]

This thread is the exact opposite of the McMichael thread. It has many more posts and lots less info. Hijack over.

Winslow, appropriate name for a Brown, isn't it? Winslow was drafted 6th, higher than any TE lately. He has (or had) mad measureables, but has not yet seen the field due to bad choices and bad luck. Roth landed on his face and apparently has recovered quickly, but Winslow messed up his knee. I digress.

His opportunities are very good this year. He should know the system, if he has been using his time well at all. He was a top draft pick and many with that heritage have produced very well (Shockey, Heap, Gonzo). One of his teams' top WRs will be brought along slowly this year. His previously stated desire to prove himself. All of these urge jumping early on the bandwagon. So, will there be seats available late in the draft?

His ADP is 112 as TE 12 and I believe that would be a nice spot to take him. But if the hype machine hits full force like it has been known to so late in the summer regarding early draft picks, his wagon could fill up before I would be willing to take him.

55 catches for 600 yards and 6 TDs

 

[mlball77]

With Br. Edwards' inj. issues, who will Frye be targeting in the passing game? To me, it seems that Jurevicius and Winslow are likely to be options 1 and 2. It seems that Northcutt could also be in the mix early, until Edwards is in full stride anyway.

I like Winslow for around-

Recs: 53

Rec Yds: 615

Rec TDs: 4

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

55 receptions 650 yards 4 TDs

Actual

89 receptions 875 yards 3 TDs

I did draft Winslow late in a couple of leagues, but I did not expect him to do so well. I knew it was possible, but this was the biggest guess out of all of my projections. There was just so little data available. He reached the high end of my expectations but I would never have drafted him early enough to warrant his big season.

Kellen Winslow could emerge as a top three TE or he could struggle to make the top 15. There is such a large margin for error because he has almost no experience of playing at the top level.

Winslow was heavily hyped when he came out of college and was the sixth overall pick by the Browns. The first TE taken in the draft often emerges as the best of the class. It seems to be one of the easiest positions to predict. In 2000, Bubba Franks was taken with the 14th pick, and was the best available that year. In 2001 Todd Heap was taken at 31 and Alge Crumpler at 35, and both have enjoyed much more success than other TEs drafted that year. Jeremy Shockey was drafted 14th in 2002 and was the best that year. Dallas Clark was the top TE in 2003 but he has arguably been outperformed by L.J. Smith and Jason Witten, although Clark may have more talent play for play. In 2005, Heath Miller was selected at 30 overall and has been the best of his class so far. So it is reasonable to expect Kellen Winslow to succeed considering he was picked so early.

The Browns are in a mess at receiver. Braylon Edwards is not expected to be ready for the first 6-8 weeks of the season, so newly-signed Joe Jurevicius should be the main threat until Edwards returns. Winslow looks to be in the ideal situation from a fantasy perspective. Most elite TEs play on teams that have no more than one top player at WR. While Winslow will have a lot to learn, he will at least be familiar with the system after being on the team for two years.

Charlie Frye will start at QB. He was forced into action in his rookie season but did much better than most. He completed 59.8% of his passes and gained more than 6 yards per attempt. QBs tend to improve significantly in their second year as starter, and so Frye might be a reasonable option for the Browns.

With Edwards out at the start of the season, it's possible that Winslow will be used extensively, and he could even line up as a wide receiver on some plays. Although Winslow has missed two years, he is still only 23 years old and will have time to make his mark in the NFL.

Prediction

55 receptions 650 yards 4 TDs

 

[lord_helmet]

Drafted him in the 8-9th rd of every single draft I was in, even so he exceeded my expectations. If his knee holds up I should be all set at that position in my dynasty leagues for a long time