Player Spotlight: Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Kenny Britt, WR, Tennessee Titans

Player Page Link: Kenny Britt Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Abraham]

Detractors will point to Britt's long history of off-field issues and injuries as a reason he won't meet expectations this year. Supporters will point to his nine touchdowns in 2010 and his fast start in 2011 as reasons to hope for WR1 value later in the draft.

Both are wrong.

Kenny Britt is a fine receiver. He can catch and run and jump and puts his helmet on with two hands like everyone else. But even granting him another year to heal from the 2011 knee injury, and granting that Kendall Writht and Justin Hunter aren't ready to assume the lead-roles in the passing offense, Kenny Britt simply isn't in a position to be more than an inconsistent receiver this season. That great success he has in 2010 and 2011 came with different a different quarterback, a more potent Chris Johnson, different coaches, different system....take your pick.

Trying to equate his success pre-injury to his 2013 prospects is foolish because so many things have changed. What we do know is that Jake Locker is woefully inaccurate and the offense as a whole is likely to be very inconsistent as long as that is the case. The interior line is new, Jared Cook is gone, the head coach will be coaching for his life, Chris Johnson thinks he can run for 5,000 yards....that's a lot of unknown variables to consider.

I'm simply not seeing a scenario in Nashville where things come together enough to reward those that hold out hope for Britt to sneak in to the top 20 among the position. On the flip side, I expect a couple big games that get this thread bumped on Monday mornings so the debate can continue. He's neither undervalued or overvalued; he's kind of just there.

55/800/7

 

[KrazyKyle]

Very well put with a perspective that made me think a little differently than I have been about Britt.

The only point I want to make is that Kenny Britt has the raw athleticism to be a top wideout in the NFL. That ability alone is enough for me to take a gamble on him, especially given his current ADP of WR38 (FFCalculator). If you're taking him as a WR3 it is risky but worth it, IMO. A WR4/5, Britt is exactly the boom/bust type of player that could easily outperform his ADP and do wonders, or he could do nothing and still not hurt your team because you're not relying upon him.

Very hard to predict because his floor is so low as well as his ceiling.

68/1084/8

 

[donkshow]

I'm drafting in as my WR3/4 and hoping for the upside to hit. With Locker though, I won't hold my breath.

They are going to run a LOT.

 

[msudaisy26]

I love him at his current ADP, I have been getting him in round 9 on average and it is hard to find a guy in round 9 that has the upside to be a top 10 receiver.

 

[Clutchfanatic]

What was his story last year. Knee troubles?,.........or just locker.

 

[FF Ninja]

I think the hype surrounding his 2011 "hot start" was 80% due to a fluke 80 yard touchdown due to inept defenders, but it has mostly fizzled out as can be seen by his WR38 ADP, although I suspect the people drafting him there still reference that hot start when talking about his 2013 upside. Personally, I ignore 2011, but still find value in him for 2013. Just a casual glance at his splits last year show his ypr spring up from 10.4 to 15.2 in the second half of the season. The quarterbacks still struggled to get him the ball, as he only caught about 50% of his passes in each half of the season.

The Titans fired Palmer as OC and promoted within. They also signed a run blocking guard. I'm not sure how this will pan out for their passing attack. They threw the ball 540 times last year and Britt got 89 of those targets (he missed the first game). Jared Cook and his 73 targets are gone. They'd be silly not to direct some of those at a healthy Britt.

I really don't know what to expect from him this year. His success obviously hinges on Locker who is still, in my mind, an unknown. This makes Britt's floor and ceiling wildly unpredictable. I don't even know where to start for a projection. I could see him ending up with 55 to 75 receptions. He will be motivated as this is a contract year, so I think he's a really good gamble at his current ADP.

For now, I'll guess 120 targets x 53% = 64 rec x 16 ypr = 1024 yds 7 TD

 

[DeaLerZ]

I think the hype surrounding his 2011 "hot start" was 80% due to a fluke 80 yard touchdown due to inept defenders, but it has mostly fizzled out as can be seen by his WR38 ADP, although I suspect the people drafting him there still reference that hot start when talking about his 2013 upside. Personally, I ignore 2011, but still find value in him for 2013. Just a casual glance at his splits last year show his ypr spring up from 10.4 to 15.2 in the second half of the season. The quarterbacks still struggled to get him the ball, as he only caught about 50% of his passes in each half of the season.

The Titans fired Palmer as OC and promoted within. They also signed a run blocking guard. I'm not sure how this will pan out for their passing attack. They threw the ball 540 times last year and Britt got 89 of those targets (he missed the first game). Jared Cook and his 73 targets are gone. They'd be silly not to direct some of those at a healthy Britt.

I really don't know what to expect from him this year. His success obviously hinges on Locker who is still, in my mind, an unknown. This makes Britt's floor and ceiling wildly unpredictable. I don't even know where to start for a projection. I could see him ending up with 55 to 75 receptions. He will be motivated as this is a contract year, so I think he's a really good gamble at his current ADP.

For now, I'll guess 120 targets x 53% = 64 rec x 16 ypr = 1024 yds 7 TD

I agree with most of this.. I think Britt is one of those guys this year, you have to target as a #3 WR.. and possibly even a little earlier. Of course you need to have a back up plan, and be paying attention to the waiver wire, but he is one of those guys that you gotta believe his floor at worst is a WR #4, but his upside is a WR #1. He can be had fairly cheap, and in a contract year I think this is the year we see what Britt can do and he knows it. A lot of this definitely depends on Locker's ability to mature as a passer, but I think Britt is one of those players where the QB looks better because of him.

The improved running game with the offensive line, and addition of Shonne Greene will only allow Locker to use the play action more often, and open up the passing game... i don't see how that is a bad thing.

75 receptions

1100 yards

8 TD's

but with the potential for so much more...

 

[FF Ninja]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

 

[Ray Finkle]

55/1,050/6

 

[Young 8]

1111 yds

7 Td

 

[DeaLerZ]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

 

[Vision6]

I think the hype surrounding his 2011 "hot start" was 80% due to a fluke 80 yard touchdown due to inept defenders, but it has mostly fizzled out as can be seen by his WR38 ADP, although I suspect the people drafting him there still reference that hot start when talking about his 2013 upside. Personally, I ignore 2011, but still find value in him for 2013. Just a casual glance at his splits last year show his ypr spring up from 10.4 to 15.2 in the second half of the season. The quarterbacks still struggled to get him the ball, as he only caught about 50% of his passes in each half of the season.

The Titans fired Palmer as OC and promoted within. They also signed a run blocking guard. I'm not sure how this will pan out for their passing attack. They threw the ball 540 times last year and Britt got 89 of those targets (he missed the first game). Jared Cook and his 73 targets are gone. They'd be silly not to direct some of those at a healthy Britt.

I really don't know what to expect from him this year. His success obviously hinges on Locker who is still, in my mind, an unknown. This makes Britt's floor and ceiling wildly unpredictable. I don't even know where to start for a projection. I could see him ending up with 55 to 75 receptions. He will be motivated as this is a contract year, so I think he's a really good gamble at his current ADP.

For now, I'll guess 120 targets x 53% = 64 rec x 16 ypr = 1024 yds 7 TD

I can't speak for others but I'm high on Britt because of how he played from his Breakout game vs the Eagles up until the knee injury. Great gamble for the price.

 

[wodahSShadow]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

 

[Fantasy Fool]

So much talent, that never seems to deliver. Sadly I feel this will be another year he just doesn't live up to his expectations at his talent level. At his current ADP, around the 8-9th round, I guess you could do worse. But I like some of the other WRs that are being drafted near his ADP more than Britt. I'd be shocked if he went for over 1,000 yards like some are predicting in this thread. When I looked up the stats from last year, Washington and Wright out produced Britt, and Cook was pretty close to as well. Britt also only had 3 games that he had 5 or more receptions (1 of which was an OT game). And in 9 games he had 3 or less receptions (again 1 was an OT game). To me that's just not getting the job done.

53 rec, 812 yards, 5 TD

Edit: Without looking up the stats, I doubt there is another NFL team that the teams #1 WR put up less fantasy numbers, than BOTH the 2nd and 3rd WR on the team he is on. Granted it shows Britt played in 14 games last season, and Wright and Washington played in more (I also don't know if Britt left any games with injuries last season). But even if he did play the extra 2 games, he still probably wouldn't have out scored Washington or Wright.

 

[jdswan922]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

 

[DeaLerZ]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

Yea not really sure why that was confusing haha

 

[DeaLerZ]

So much talent, that never seems to deliver. Sadly I feel this will be another year he just doesn't live up to his expectations at his talent level. At his current ADP, around the 8-9th round, I guess you could do worse. But I like some of the other WRs that are being drafted near his ADP more than Britt. I'd be shocked if he went for over 1,000 yards like some are predicting in this thread. When I looked up the stats from last year, Washington and Wright out produced Britt, and Cook was pretty close to as well. Britt also only had 3 games that he had 5 or more receptions (1 of which was an OT game). And in 9 games he had 3 or less receptions (again 1 was an OT game). To me that's just not getting the job done.

53 rec, 812 yards, 5 TD

Edit: Without looking up the stats, I doubt there is another NFL team that the teams #1 WR put up less fantasy numbers, than BOTH the 2nd and 3rd WR on the team he is on. Granted it shows Britt played in 14 games last season, and Wright and Washington played in more (I also don't know if Britt left any games with injuries last season). But even if he did play the extra 2 games, he still probably wouldn't have out scored Washington or Wright.

I had him in both my leagues last year.. he had nagging injuries and the reports all year long were that he was only about 75% healthy recovering from the ACL injury (as shown below at the end of the season).... he also had a few games where TD's got called back because of penalties.. (Like 2 or 3 if i remember correctly, one of which was complete bull####)

Kenny Britt is still dealing with swelling in his left knee, and he plans to see doctors in the offseason to try and diagnose the problem.
Britt is practicing in full this week and will play in the finale against the Jaguars on Sunday, but he clearly hasn't been near 100 percent this season. He hasn't been able to separate from opposing defensive backs, and Tennessee's inept quarterback play hasn't done Britt any favors either. Britt will use the offseason to get back to full health and could be a steal in 2013 fantasy drafts.


Source: Terry McCormick on Twitter
Thu, Dec 27, 2012 02:46:00 PM

the difference this year.. CONTRACT YEAR.. and all reports indicate he is in great shape... and of course the improved offense....

with that being said... this is the last year i will roll the dice on him .... just can't keep myself away this year from his potential to be an awesome #3 WR with huge upside

 

[Leonidas]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

 

[wodahSShadow]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

^ Exactly.

 

[FF Ninja]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

^ Exactly.

Haha, yeah, I'm not sure how this is confusing. Longer drives =/= more offensive snaps per game. If teams are grinding up the clock running the ball then they won't be producing fantasy relevant wide receivers. An 8 minute drive might sound good to these guys right now, but they don't realize that longer possessions --> less possessions. Less possessions = less scoring opps. Pretty intuitive for some. Elusive logic for others.

 

[RBM]

I was a fan of Locker coming in, but I'm just not sure now. Plus this kid here is a complete headcase

60/840/5

 

[jdswan922]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

^ Exactly.

Haha, yeah, I'm not sure how this is confusing. Longer drives =/= more offensive snaps per game. If teams are grinding up the clock running the ball then they won't be producing fantasy relevant wide receivers. An 8 minute drive might sound good to these guys right now, but they don't realize that longer possessions --> less possessions. Less possessions = less scoring opps. Pretty intuitive for some. Elusive logic for others.

I'll take an 8 minute 15 play drive that puts the team in the redzone over a 3 and out any day for my WR. You fail to see that an improved running game puts the offense in a position to open up the play book on 2nd and 3rd down. We will just agree to disagree on this point.

 

[Bri]

Britt is an awesome talent-one of the best. He has interrupted his progress oh so many times due to poor choices in life. On the field, his panic mode is to revert back to this man among boys college thing that oh so many rookies do. In the NFL, only Calvin Johnson can pull that off. When Britt runs his routes precisely and does it all the right way, he has the ability to be unstoppable. He doesn't do this with any sort of regularity.

That Philly game years ago needs to be forgotten because the Eagles defenders were barely covering him and one or two were even cut after the game.

If you look at his other good games, when he puts his head down he is excellent and you can see a future as a top WR.

On fantasy boards and even NFL GMs on draft day, we all project the players "getting it" and improving and this future where they do everything correctly. That has never happened with Britt. We can sit around and expect he's being coached how to do things properly and he's going to then go on the field and execute and...it is very frustrating that it doesn't happen.

Nate Washington is a veteran that knows exactly what to do to get open. Washington is very much not an elite talent, but he makes his living doing how he was taught. He's a good example for Britt. Derrick Mason (sorta classic Titans WR) has been around for visits in the past and took a shot at showing Britt the ropes.

Word is Britt used to argue in the huddle, late last year he began to point a finger at himself. THIS could be why he'll improve, why he won't get in trouble anymore etc. It could be everything for this young man.

The Titans are setup perfectly for Britt. Everything is in place for him to be a superstar. Wright looks like a perfect complimentary WR. A RB that should get much of the Ds attention. An improved line that should give him some time to get open.

Titans brought in a top OC in Tom Moore last year. 70ish former OC that's taught Barry, Peyton and Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne the ropes, even made Scott Mitchell look good. Moore's not with the Titans anymore, but most players don't get an opportunity to have an NFL gem work with them and fine tune a new offense.

He's got a young OC that often speaks of wanting to create mismatches and get big plays.

If you made up a stage for a WR to perform on and do well, it would be the situation Britt is in.

Past history would suggest he's going to get in trouble with the law, get hurt, and/or not be anywhere near a disciplined route runner. There is zero evidence that this guy is going to do exactly what he needs to do for 16 games. If he does, however, he is possibly the best pick in fantasy drafts since his adp has him as the 95th player being taken right now.

He makes it hard on us FF folks. We're foolish to not pounce on this and then foolish to believe he'd put his head down and "get to work" each week.

Justin Hunter is either a third weapon to make this offense explosive or a step back and Britt's replacement. There's a ton of pressure on Britt to do well. In dynasty leagues, drafting Hunter to wait some til he replaces Britt seems like a wiser draft philosophy than counting on Britt. Britt could be a 400 yard WR or a 1400 yard one.

Patience is no longer there and if you read enough Munchak quotes or articles from reporters at offseason activities you have to figure Britt understands. If you've got an early draft, Britt's a great pick for the 8th-9th round. It seems we'll know how he's doing and you'll have time to react if he hasn't brought his A game this year. No one in the 9th round has Britt's upside.

Wright looks good. Washington could get the standard 750 yards no prob as a starter. Hunter receives praise from all sorts of folks on the web for his potential. Williams is a fine fill in. The Titans could be OK without Britt, but they're exciting with him. Like the Titans, FFers gotta make a call whether Britt will or will not get it done this year.

I think he finally does and he amounts to 1400 yards and 8 TDs and we're listening to people on the board claim they always knew he'd come through and searching for posts stating as such. I'm going to draft accordingly and be ready for a 400 yard season though.

 

[ol blues]

Britt is too cheap to pass on. Yes, it's the Titans, and this certainly is one of the most unfocused organizations in the NFL. Yes, it's Locker and who knows if he will ever get it. But, when healthy and sober Britt is a huge and productive talent and the rest of the WR corps, while better than some, is simply not in his class. Britt is available at a WR4 price and has WR1- potential.

 

[ratbast]

David Boston II, nothing I would want to depend on, but I would love him as depth.

 

[cstu]

If you made up a stage for a WR to perform on and do well, it would be the situation Britt is in.

I agree with most of what you wrote, Bri, but Locker is still his QB.

 

[Adam Harstad]

If you made up a stage for a WR to perform on and do well, it would be the situation Britt is in.

I agree with most of what you wrote, Bri, but Locker is still his QB.

He produced top-3 PPG numbers in 2010 and 2011. His QBs during that span were Vince Young (4 games), Kerry Collins (6 games), and Matt Hasselbeck (3 games). Young and Collins were backups the next season, and out of the league the season after. Hasselbeck started half the season in year N+1, was signed to be a backup in year N+2, and might well be out of the league in year N+3. I'd still take a late-30s Collins or Hasselbeck over Locker, but it's not like Britt hasn't produced with mediocre QB play before.

 

[Bri]

If you made up a stage for a WR to perform on and do well, it would be the situation Britt is in.

I agree with most of what you wrote, Bri, but Locker is still his QB.

The drops have been ridiculous. The stats aren't right and it's a judgement one that makes me question the statistician's judgement. Titans WRs dropped "a zillion" balls last year. It was frustrating to watch.

That is not his fault, most of em'. It is hard for a young QB to get going when the WRs are dropping balls. He also had rookie Wright and inexperienced Williams to throw to and Cook who is frustrating all by himself.

I'm not ready to excuse his play, but I'm not ready to blame either. Munchak was frustrated last year, Moore made a few comments, as did the OC. I felt (and still think it might happen) like Munchak might cut or sideline some WR to send a message.

I flat out don't know on Locker.

This isn't Sam Bradford where I wish they'd sign arena league guys so that the WRs improve like I did in previous years. Locker has some weapons.

My attitude for 2013, is I don't care if he has to pitch the ball or hand it to them 15 yards down field, he better complete more and they had better catch more.

I really want to blame Locker, I just can't totally blame him just yet.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I have seen a handful of games from Locker. He makes the easy pass look hard and this has been going on since his college days. If he is somehow able to develop more touch on the short/intermediate passes he certainly has the physical tools to succeed. I am not optimistic due to his track record though.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

Britt’s career to date has been a series of fits and starts with tantalizing glimpses of stardom sprinkled into a broader, more dominant landscape of injuries and off-the-field issues. There is little doubt that Britt possesses the talent to be a true #1 WR in the NFL…but his consistency and fate have stopped that from happening. Now as he enters the final year of his rookie deal and free agency less than 9 months away, Britt has the 2013 to show he can be a true difference maker that a franchise can build its passing attack around. Will he?

2009: 42/701/3…has 2 100 yard games but also two 0 catch games.
2010: 42/775/9…breakout game of 7/225/3 is followed up by a hamstring pull that knocks him out of action for 4+ weeks. 16 game proration works out to 61/1127/9 if you count his 2 games where he got hurt early and didn’t go the rest of the way as one.
2011: 17/289/3…accumulated in 2.5 games. This truly appeared to be his breakout season until his torn ACL.
2012: 45/589/4…the 14 games played represent a career high but Britt was never right following knee surgery.

Now reports have Britt looking great. But there are A LOT of wild-cards involved here.

• Jake Locker? Can he start looking like a QB picked #8 overall? With Ryan Fitzpatrick as the back-up, the passing game won’tgrind to a halt in Locker is injured or benched. But it’s unlikely anyone breaks out on the Titans WR corps if Locker doesn’t take step forward.
• Kendall Wright – Britt was able to become the de facto #1 WR in TEN because of the lack of WR talent around him. Wright entering Year 2 probably warrants some looks as at least a solid #2 WR in that offense and if he develops rapport with Locker, could emerge as well shaving off some of Britt’s upside.
• Britt himself – he’s been known to do stupid things off the field. Just because he’s in a contract year doesn’t mean on some Saturday night at the club, he’ll remember that. A lot of people have their fingers crossed here but it’s a variable that you take into account with Britt’s outlook.

This is a guy you can get in the 8th round at the moment (WR38). If you take the 3 guys before and after him, here’s the list:

Steve Johnson
Miles Austin
Josh Gordon
Jeremy Maclin
Mike Willliams
Lance Moore

Their average production in 2012 was 65/948/6.5. This is actually pretty solid, but we can caveat that by saying there are some differences between their 2012 and 2013 situations/outlooks, mainly Johnson (EJ Manuel/Kolb), Gordon (becoming problematic off the field along with suspension), and Maclin (completely unsettled QB situation at the moment). The fact is, it’s impossible to ignore Britt’s upside, but the same can be said for his downside. Which makes drafting him the ultimate gamble. Because I do feel like he’s the type of player that if he pulls it all together can put up a 1250/12 year. And it does seem like the effort is there at the moment on his part to focus on his career, and more importantly, himself as a person to not get himself in unnecessary trouble.

In the end, I actually like TEN as a quasi-dark horse in the AFC South. They’ve bolstered their O-Line with Levitre and Warmack. I think their defense is a bit underrated…they generate good pressure on the QB and fare well in the INT department and I think the addition of Bernard Pollard was a very good get. With Gregg Williams in tow, I think this unit could surprise. As it relates to Britt, I think he’s going to have to walk before he runs. He’s taking steps in the right direction with his career and life at the moment, but I don’t think this is the season he blows the lid off the NFL. But I do think 2013 stands to set him up for much better things ahead if he sticks with the Titans.

Prediction: 68 Receptions, 1084 Receiving Yards 9 TD’s.

 

[-jb-]

He now has Calvin Johnson's WR Coach. I have no idea what impact that will have, but interesting and better than me just ing this thread.

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I had him in 2010/2011 (yay!), avoided him last year (didn't trust that he'd really be back at his ADP) and will look for him again this year as an upside play in the 8th/9th.

Also whenever anyone points out how awesome he was in 2011's 3 games I'm compelled to point out that 1/3 of his TDs and yards came on one fluky/broken play. I should just put it in my sig and be done with it

 

[Billy Ball Thorton]

1. 95 -1450-11

 

[DeaLerZ]

Improved running game often equates to less total snaps and a higher percentage of run plays on the snaps that they do have left, so that's one way that it could be a bad thing.

It also means longer drives... longer time of possession.. more opportunities for receptions.. and more scoring opportunities... it is all how you look at it...

How in the world does longer time of possesion and longer drives, outside of snap count, mean anything to fantasy football?

Pretty self explanatory if you read the post. More plays and longer drives leads to more opportunities. More opportunities to catch passes and score TDs. More catches and more TDs means more points (in real life and fantasy).

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

^ Exactly.

Haha, yeah, I'm not sure how this is confusing. Longer drives =/= more offensive snaps per game. If teams are grinding up the clock running the ball then they won't be producing fantasy relevant wide receivers. An 8 minute drive might sound good to these guys right now, but they don't realize that longer possessions --> less possessions. Less possessions = less scoring opps. Pretty intuitive for some. Elusive logic for others.

I'll take an 8 minute 15 play drive that puts the team in the redzone over a 3 and out any day for my WR. You fail to see that an improved running game puts the offense in a position to open up the play book on 2nd and 3rd down. We will just agree to disagree on this point.

Yea me too.. i am really not understanding where the less snaps are coming from??? better run game means more offensive plays.. i will also agree to disagree

 

[DeaLerZ]

Britt’s career to date has been a series of fits and starts with tantalizing glimpses of stardom sprinkled into a broader, more dominant landscape of injuries and off-the-field issues. There is little doubt that Britt possesses the talent to be a true #1 WR in the NFL…but his consistency and fate have stopped that from happening. Now as he enters the final year of his rookie deal and free agency less than 9 months away, Britt has the 2013 to show he can be a true difference maker that a franchise can build its passing attack around. Will he?

2009: 42/701/3…has 2 100 yard games but also two 0 catch games.

2010: 42/775/9…breakout game of 7/225/3 is followed up by a hamstring pull that knocks him out of action for 4+ weeks. 16 game proration works out to 61/1127/9 if you count his 2 games where he got hurt early and didn’t go the rest of the way as one.

2011: 17/289/3…accumulated in 2.5 games. This truly appeared to be his breakout season until his torn ACL.

2012: 45/589/4…the 14 games played represent a career high but Britt was never right following knee surgery.

Now reports have Britt looking great. But there are A LOT of wild-cards involved here.

• Jake Locker? Can he start looking like a QB picked #8 overall? With Ryan Fitzpatrick as the back-up, the passing game won’tgrind to a halt in Locker is injured or benched. But it’s unlikely anyone breaks out on the Titans WR corps if Locker doesn’t take step forward.
• Kendall Wright – Britt was able to become the de facto #1 WR in TEN because of the lack of WR talent around him. Wright entering Year 2 probably warrants some looks as at least a solid #2 WR in that offense and if he develops rapport with Locker, could emerge as well shaving off some of Britt’s upside.
• Britt himself – he’s been known to do stupid things off the field. Just because he’s in a contract year doesn’t mean on some Saturday night at the club, he’ll remember that. A lot of people have their fingers crossed here but it’s a variable that you take into account with Britt’s outlook.

This is a guy you can get in the 8th round at the moment (WR38). If you take the 3 guys before and after him, here’s the list:

Steve Johnson

Miles Austin

Josh Gordon

Jeremy Maclin

Mike Willliams

Lance Moore

Their average production in 2012 was 65/948/6.5. This is actually pretty solid, but we can caveat that by saying there are some differences between their 2012 and 2013 situations/outlooks, mainly Johnson (EJ Manuel/Kolb), Gordon (becoming problematic off the field along with suspension), and Maclin (completely unsettled QB situation at the moment). The fact is, it’s impossible to ignore Britt’s upside, but the same can be said for his downside. Which makes drafting him the ultimate gamble. Because I do feel like he’s the type of player that if he pulls it all together can put up a 1250/12 year. And it does seem like the effort is there at the moment on his part to focus on his career, and more importantly, himself as a person to not get himself in unnecessary trouble.

In the end, I actually like TEN as a quasi-dark horse in the AFC South. They’ve bolstered their O-Line with Levitre and Warmack. I think their defense is a bit underrated…they generate good pressure on the QB and fare well in the INT department and I think the addition of Bernard Pollard was a very good get. With Gregg Williams in tow, I think this unit could surprise. As it relates to Britt, I think he’s going to have to walk before he runs. He’s taking steps in the right direction with his career and life at the moment, but I don’t think this is the season he blows the lid off the NFL. But I do think 2013 stands to set him up for much better things ahead if he sticks with the Titans.

Prediction: 68 Receptions, 1084 Receiving Yards 9 TD’s.

great points man... pretty much the same exact reason why I can't resist him this year as well

 

[Leonidas]

Yea me too.. i am really not understanding where the less snaps are coming from??? better run game means more offensive plays.. i will also agree to disagree

It may or may not.

If you have a good defense and a good running game, you might control the clock and keep the other team's offense on the sideline as long as possible, while tiring out the defense.

Detroit ran far more offensive plays last year than Seattle. Was that because Detroit's running game is so much better than Seattle's?

 

[FF Ninja]

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

^ Exactly.

Haha, yeah, I'm not sure how this is confusing. Longer drives =/= more offensive snaps per game. If teams are grinding up the clock running the ball then they won't be producing fantasy relevant wide receivers. An 8 minute drive might sound good to these guys right now, but they don't realize that longer possessions --> less possessions. Less possessions = less scoring opps. Pretty intuitive for some. Elusive logic for others.

I'll take an 8 minute 15 play drive that puts the team in the redzone over a 3 and out any day for my WR. You fail to see that an improved running game puts the offense in a position to open up the play book on 2nd and 3rd down. We will just agree to disagree on this point.

Yea me too.. i am really not understanding where the less snaps are coming from??? better run game means more offensive plays.. i will also agree to disagree

Therein lies the problem.

But if you don't get that, then maybe raw numbers will help. Have a look at how Houston did after their run game improved.

year - RB rush - WR yds - WR TD

2009 - 365 - 3096 - 17

2010 - 396 - 2516 - 16

2011 - 509 - 1747 - 8

2012 - 479 - 2439 - 8

People need to stop trying to spin things in a positive light every time there is a change. If CJ had gotten released then everyone would be saying "oh, they'll have to throw more, this will be good for Britt" instead of saying "oh, they're going to run more, this will be good for Britt". It just doesn't make sense and it doesn't play out that way in reality. Running uses more of the clock and is a safer option in the red zone than throwing. It is not a good thing for WR fantasy points. That being said, I still think Britt is a decent gamble at his current ADP. I just can't get behind some of this logic.

 

[FF Ninja]

This is a guy you can get in the 8th round at the moment (WR38). If you take the 3 guys before and after him, here’s the list:

Steve Johnson

Miles Austin

Josh Gordon

Jeremy Maclin

Mike Willliams

Lance Moore

Their average production in 2012 was 65/948/6.5. This is actually pretty solid, but we can caveat that by saying there are some differences between their 2012 and 2013 situations/outlooks, mainly Johnson (EJ Manuel/Kolb), Gordon (becoming problematic off the field along with suspension), and Maclin (completely unsettled QB situation at the moment). The fact is, it’s impossible to ignore Britt’s upside, but the same can be said for his downside. Which makes drafting him the ultimate gamble. Because I do feel like he’s the type of player that if he pulls it all together can put up a 1250/12 year. And it does seem like the effort is there at the moment on his part to focus on his career, and more importantly, himself as a person to not get himself in unnecessary trouble.

I'll take Miles Austin over Britt every time. I'll take Britt over the rest of them, though. But Miles Austin was a stud while healthy last year. 41/637/4 in the first 8 games. He'll be 29 this year. The only real question about him is his hamstrings which they're supposedly working on heavily this offseason. I like Britt but he's got way more than 1 question mark.

 

[Shutout]

This is a guy you can get in the 8th round at the moment (WR38). If you take the 3 guys before and after him, here’s the list:

Steve Johnson

Miles Austin

Josh Gordon

Jeremy Maclin

Mike Willliams

Lance Moore

Their average production in 2012 was 65/948/6.5. This is actually pretty solid, but we can caveat that by saying there are some differences between their 2012 and 2013 situations/outlooks, mainly Johnson (EJ Manuel/Kolb), Gordon (becoming problematic off the field along with suspension), and Maclin (completely unsettled QB situation at the moment). The fact is, it’s impossible to ignore Britt’s upside, but the same can be said for his downside. Which makes drafting him the ultimate gamble. Because I do feel like he’s the type of player that if he pulls it all together can put up a 1250/12 year. And it does seem like the effort is there at the moment on his part to focus on his career, and more importantly, himself as a person to not get himself in unnecessary trouble.

I'll take Miles Austin over Britt every time. I'll take Britt over the rest of them, though. But Miles Austin was a stud while healthy last year. 41/637/4 in the first 8 games. He'll be 29 this year. The only real question about him is his hamstrings which they're supposedly working on heavily this offseason. I like Britt but he's got way more than 1 question mark.

Just from that list, I agree on Austin if I am just sitting there and straight up drafting.

My other thoughts are, if I want to be "safer", I think you can add Maclin to that list and if I want to be more consistent and take a swing at knocking one out of the park, I may go Mike Williams. Williams, IMO, is a severely overlooked value who does better than what I think the majority give him credit for.

 

[FF Ninja]

I agree Maclin is probably a safer pick. New offense but proven talent. But I can't agree with Williams. He had crazy hype after his rookie year which I was very wary about due to his crappy catch % and avoided him. His second year kind of confirmed my suspicions. Then last year, he caught a few long TDs that helped his totals, but he's still a guy who only catches 50% of his targets and I don't think his targets are going to go up. I thought maybe he'd start catching more now that he's the clear cut WR2 rather than WR1, but it didn't help. I think there's a good chance he's around 65 rec again, but with maybe a 14-15 ypr and a TD or two less, which is why he's valued so low for a guy who finished WR18 last year. I think last year was Mike Williams knocking one out of the park. He'll probably do better than his ADP (WR36), but it'll take a series of fortunate events for him to break back into WR2 territory.

 

[Shutout]

I agree Maclin is probably a safer pick. New offense but proven talent. But I can't agree with Williams. He had crazy hype after his rookie year which I was very wary about due to his crappy catch % and avoided him. His second year kind of confirmed my suspicions. Then last year, he caught a few long TDs that helped his totals, but he's still a guy who only catches 50% of his targets and I don't think his targets are going to go up. I thought maybe he'd start catching more now that he's the clear cut WR2 rather than WR1, but it didn't help. I think there's a good chance he's around 65 rec again, but with maybe a 14-15 ypr and a TD or two less, which is why he's valued so low for a guy who finished WR18 last year. I think last year was Mike Williams knocking one out of the park. He'll probably do better than his ADP (WR36), but it'll take a series of fortunate events for him to break back into WR2 territory.

I think you're right. I think my thoughts on him are clouded by the fact that I seemed to play against him every time he had a huge game last year ...lol..I didn't know his ADP but was assuming it was lower.

 

[finito]

I think he has WR1 potential, but I doubt hell be able to achieve that in Tenn. I'd buy at his current ADP though, as I think he could be a legit #2, just obviously comes with risk

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I'd probably go Austin too, but man...those hamstrings....how many years in a row? He's elite when healthy though, and Britt's not exactly an ironman himself.

Just checked-Austin has played all 16 games in 3 of the last 4 years, I was very surprised to see that.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'd probably go Austin too, but man...those hamstrings....how many years in a row? He's elite when healthy though, and Britt's not exactly an ironman himself.

Just checked-Austin has played all 16 games in 3 of the last 4 years, I was very surprised to see that.

Yeah, he battles through the hamstrings, but he's a shell of himself during that time. I think the hamstrings have only been an issue the past 2 years. His drop in production 3 years ago was due to Romo's game 5 injury. Austin was absolutely tearing it up the first 4 weeks IIRC - something close to 500 yards receiving then Kitna took over and he only got like 600 yards in the next 12 games.

 

[biju]

If there are fewer snaps, there aren't more plays.

^ Exactly.

Haha, yeah, I'm not sure how this is confusing. Longer drives =/= more offensive snaps per game. If teams are grinding up the clock running the ball then they won't be producing fantasy relevant wide receivers. An 8 minute drive might sound good to these guys right now, but they don't realize that longer possessions --> less possessions. Less possessions = less scoring opps. Pretty intuitive for some. Elusive logic for others.

I'll take an 8 minute 15 play drive that puts the team in the redzone over a 3 and out any day for my WR. You fail to see that an improved running game puts the offense in a position to open up the play book on 2nd and 3rd down. We will just agree to disagree on this point.

Yea me too.. i am really not understanding where the less snaps are coming from??? better run game means more offensive plays.. i will also agree to disagree

Therein lies the problem.

But if you don't get that, then maybe raw numbers will help. Have a look at how Houston did after their run game improved.

year - RB rush - WR yds - WR TD

2009 - 365 - 3096 - 17

2010 - 396 - 2516 - 16

2011 - 509 - 1747 - 8

2012 - 479 - 2439 - 8

People need to stop trying to spin things in a positive light every time there is a change. If CJ had gotten released then everyone would be saying "oh, they'll have to throw more, this will be good for Britt" instead of saying "oh, they're going to run more, this will be good for Britt". It just doesn't make sense and it doesn't play out that way in reality. Running uses more of the clock and is a safer option in the red zone than throwing. It is not a good thing for WR fantasy points. That being said, I still think Britt is a decent gamble at his current ADP. I just can't get behind some of this logic.

First I'll immediately state that I agree with you (and as a Britt owner I don't necessarily *like* it, but I agree with it).

But you are missing two datapoints here. First is that in 2011 Matt Schaub missed 6 games which is part of the reason they went run heavy and the yardage dipped so much. The second however is that Houston's run game has seen its YPC drop the past two years from 4.8 in 2010 to 4.5 and in 2012 down to 4.2. We aren't really in the area of "ineffective run attempts" and I would also state this might be a focus more on stuffing the box and making them throw. (If I were a DC I would certainly make Schaub beat me instead of Arian Foster.) However if the run is becoming less effective and they aren't laying off the run attempts it is probably affecting the numbers just as much.

It's worth mentioning though that the best running teams in the league were not anywhere near the top of the league in passing yards or passing TDs:

1. Washington: 3,422 yards (20th) / 24 TDs (13th tied with two others)

2. Minnesota: 2,751 yards (31st) / 18 TDs (25th tied)

3. Seattle: 3,031 yards (27th) / 27 TDs (8th tied with two others)

4. San Fran: 3,298 yards (23rd) / 23 TDs (16th tied)

5. Kansas City: 2,713 yards (32nd) / 8 TDs (32nd)

I'd also like to simply add that I don't believe the Titans are suddenly going to become a running powerhouse so I'm not sure if this discussion is heading in the right direction.

 

[Bigboy10182000]

FWIW:

Kenny Britt was asked how his time off between mini-camp and training camp went.

You didn't hear anything from me, did you? asked Britt, who has nine police run-ins in his past with the Tennessee Titans.

In that regard, no news was good news for Britt and the Titans. But five years in, Tennessee is still waiting for Britt to live up to his first-round draft status with a healthy, breakthrough season. With Britt entering the final year of his rookie deal, 2013 is now or never as far as the Titans are concerned.

Physically, Britt says he is much better than a year ago when he was coming off three knee procedures, including ACL and MCL surgery on his right knee. He had a career-high 42 catches last year, but 2012 turned out to be a disappointment, considering the track he was on before wrecking his right knee two-and-a-half games into 2011. He had 17 receptions for 289 yards in that short span before the injury.

My best physical shape was in 2011, and I'm definitely on my stride and my way to getting there. This will get me better going through the camp process and putting the shoulder pads back on and after I'll definitely be back to where I was.

Britt says he has set weekly goals for himself and believes that that can lead to him finally fulfilling his potential on the field.

I'm going to set goals once a week and then set more goals. I'm going to push myself each and every day. I don't count my chickens before they hatch, but there's a lot of things I want to happen throughout the year, Britt said.

Asked what those things are, Britt, said, I want to be a complete player and be that No. 1 receiver I know I can be, and everybody else sees the potential and says I can be, and show them I can do it, and show myself I can do it.