Player Spotlight: Kevin Jones (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kevin Jones, RB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Kevin Jones Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[ChampBailey24]

He will bounce back this year. He's lost some fat, he must be working hard with Martz and Marinelli and I've heard that he's caught hundreds and hundreds of balls to increase his receiving ability. He won't have a great FF year for a RB but he'll be a decent #2 and a solid #3.

1150/7 TDs rushing

to go along with

234/2 receiving

 

[T Man]

I still don't think he'll perform like his draft status a year ago suggested, but he will be a top 15-20 RB - which in a 10 team start 2RB league means he is a solid #2.

I think Martz will want to show he is a genious, and Marinelli is one who I suspect wants to run. That means that Martz will try and use KJ like he used Faulk when Martz was the OC in St. Louis.

1300/7 TDs rushing - which is approximately 80 yards per game.

39 catches 220/2 receiving

 

[TME]

Big bump to KJ now that Mooch is gone. Mooch is probably some where on a golf course rotating 6 caddies over 18 holes. Some holes are long, some are short, some are hilly, some have water, etc. You need a special caddy for each type of hole. Then, he complains why none of the caddies can get up to speed on his game and give him good playing advice, and leaves them all a measly tip to split.

Now that that mess is behind him....

Operating under the assumption that KJ is more featured and also takes on 3rd down duties.

275 carries, 1,183 yards, 9 TDs

40 receptions, 280 yards, 0 TDs

I think there's upside in that YPC too that could add another 175 yards. Whereas KJ was overpriced last year, he will be underpriced this year.

 

[menobrown]

I'm probably going to be way over the average on my KJ predictions but I believe that much in Martz and I also believe that little in Mooch.

This assumption is based on KJ not coming out on third downs and being an everydown back, save for the occasional breather.

1,209 yards rushing with 8 TD's and 63 receptions for 459 yards and 2 TD's.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

Kevin has good size and speed ratio you like to see in a running back. He is not afraid to run over the pile either. I see the new coaching staff wanting to find out if Jones will be the guy. I will give a little bump to the run game from their four year average of 1350 RB rush yards and figure the position for 1475 with a little upside. I will also give a slight bump to the four year average of 7 RB touchdowns a year. With that in mind I figure Kevin to have this type of production:

I figure 75-80% of the rushing yards, most of the TD's and a chunk of receiving stats.

260 rushes - 1135 yards - 7 TD 30 rec - 260 yds 1 TD

There is some upside to these numbers but also fair amount of downside if he struggles early.

 

[GreedoShotFirst]

I'm probably going to be way over the average on my KJ predictions but I believe that much in Martz and I also believe that little in Mooch.

This assumption is based on KJ not coming out on third downs and being an everydown back, save for the occasional breather.

1,209 yards rushing with 8 TD's and 63 receptions for 459 yards and 2 TD's.

I get it that you like Jones this season, but he had 20 receptions last year. What makes you think that he is going to catch 43 more balls this season?

 

[Shiver44]

Kevin Jones

280 Rushes

1344 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing Touchdowns

42 Catches

310 Receiving Yards

3 Receiving Touchdowns

Martz's offense will benefit him a lot.

 

[Raiders]

1250 8 tds rushing, 450 4 tds recieving.

 

[lebowski]

1250 8 tds rushing, 450 4 tds recieving.

So... no one here seems to worried about Calhoun pushing KJ for some carries. I know I am.

 

[Winning IS Everything]

1250  8 tds rushing, 450 4 tds recieving.

So... no one here seems to worried about Calhoun pushing KJ for some carries. I know I am.

In my predictions I figure Jones as the undisputed #1 RB. I do say there is downside if he struggles early but I think he will be given plenty of chances to carry the rock.

 

[menobrown]

I get it that you like Jones this season, but he had 20 receptions last year. What makes you think that he is going to catch 43 more balls this season?

Here are the main reasons:1. First and foremost he won't be catching that many passes if he comes out on third down like he did last year. So my prediciton is predicated on him not coming out on third downs. Mooch and his RB platoon system is gone and I've read the reports that say he will be an every down back and I'm inclined to believe it right now.

2. The system of Mike Martz leads to a ton of catches for his RB's. Marshall usually caught over 80 a year and Jackson caught over 40 last year while getting removed for a lot of third down work which lead to Marshall also catching over 40 passes and both RB's combining to go over 80. Other RB's such as Trung Canidate, Lamar Gordon and Arlen Harris have all come in and caught a lot of passed in Martz's offense when they were provided playing time.

I'll say I felt the same way about Kevin Jones as I did about Thomas Jones heading into the 2004 season. TJ had not caught a lot of passes up to that point in his career but Chicago brought in an OC who was running the Chiefs/Rams style of offense that year and I felt TJ's catch totals would skyrocket up. He went from a career high of around 31 to 56 catches in 14 games.

 

[Rev]

In his rookie campaign, Jones had 241 carries (@ 4.7 yards/carry) combined with 41 targets for 28 receptions (6.4 yards/reception). Last year, he carried the ball only 186 times (3.6 yards/carry) and was targeted 28 times for 20 receptions (5.5 yards/reception). Both seasons, he ran for 5 TDs. Simply put: Jones is more productive with more touches. Given that Jones has been working extremely hard to hone his receiving skills, he could very well become a legimate, 3-down back, which in Martz' system means FF delight. If Jones can find a way to stay healthy and fend off the very talented Brian Calhoun, expect impressive numbers in 2006:

275 carries @ 5.3 ypc = 1450 yards and 8 TDs

52 targets for 42 receptions and 280 yards

 

[turkishkamel]

1250  8 tds rushing, 450 4 tds recieving.

So... no one here seems to worried about Calhoun pushing KJ for some carries. I know I am.

not at all. only injuries allow calhoun to steal carries. KJs been nothing but impressive under the new coaching staff275/1200/7tds

45/269/1td

 

[Sigfawn]

In his rookie campaign, Jones had 241 carries (@ 4.7 yards/carry) combined with 41 targets for 28 receptions (6.4 yards/reception).  Last year, he carried the ball only 186 times (3.6 yards/carry) and was targeted 28 times for 20 receptions (5.5 yards/reception).  Both seasons, he ran for 5 TDs.  Simply put: Jones is more productive with more touches.  Given that Jones has been working extremely hard to hone his receiving skills, he could very well become a legimate, 3-down back, which in Martz' system means FF delight.  If Jones can find a way to stay healthy and fend off the very talented Brian Calhoun, expect impressive numbers in 2006:

  275 carries @ 5.3 ypc = 1450 yards and 8 TDs

  52 targets for 42 receptions and 280 yards

More productive with more carries? Questionable. He's more productive against horrible rush Ds that he faced in 2004. Go check who he beat up on for those final 8 games.He's more productive when running through swiss cheese.

Not sure you can toss out 1.1 ypc drop because he didn't get the ball enough. Maybe if he didn't choke so hard, he would have had some more carries.

 

[Gandalf]

It's true; I have been beating the poor defense in 2004 drum for a while. This boosted KJ's numbers. And, KJ was SO bad last year and it wasn't solely Mooch's fault. Part of the blame has to land squarely on KJ's shoulders. He quit on his team in 2-3 games, kept getting injured and looked lost even when healthy.

That said, Martz is the new coach and he gets another chance to prove his worth. I know plenty of burned owners who won't draft him ever again, which probably means he's great value. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for a rebound, but I'm skeptical that all the issues from last year have been cured by a new coach. We shall see.

300 carries, 1280 yards, 6 TDs

30 receptions, 200 yards, 1 TD

 

[DocNiner52]

Some good assessment and reasoning on what people think KJ will produce this year. With the continued hype and belief from people on KJ having a good year he may not be undervalued come draft time in August for a lot of fantasy leagues. I have him in a dynastry league and am looking forward to him blossoming into a pretty good nfl back.

265 carries for 1212 yds and 10 td's

38 receptions for 222 yds and 2 td's

 

[Pots]

260 carries, 1100 yards, 6 TDs

35 catches, 220 yards, 1 TD

 

[Tau837]

Many of these projections have not included carries. Those that have included them have projected 275, 260, 280, 275, 275, 300, 265, 260.

With the Rams for the past 6 years, the highest carry total for any Martz back was 260 by Faulk in 2001. Faulk also had 253 in 2000. Jackson was on a 16 game pace for 243 last season before Vitt took over for Martz. Next highest was Faulk with 212 in 2002. Faulk was a HOF RB who averaged 4.7 ypc from 2000-2005 for Martz, yet Martz gave him only 16.9 carries per game over that span. That does scale up to 270 carries in 16 games... but Jones isn't Faulk and may not get the ball as much from Martz.

I guess my point here is that some of these carry projections seem high to me.

These are the ypc projections for those who projected carries: 4.3, 4.4, 4.8, 5.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.6, 4.2

Jones has averaged 4.2 ypc in his career. Granted, two years ago he averaged 4.7 on 241 carries which shows he is capable of high production... but just last year he averaged a measly 3.6. Hard for me to justify going from that to some of these projections.

I'd say 230/966 rushing sounds about right.

Assuming he plays most downs regularly, I agree he should set a career high in catches. He is no Faulk IMO, but he could be a Jackson... who averaged 2.9 catches per game last season. I'd project 40/275 receiving.

Jones has 11 TDs in 2 seasons. Obviously Faulk was a TD machine, but I think that has little bearing here. I'm willing to give him a slight uptick based on Martz, though.

230/966/6 rushing

40/275/1 receiving

166.1 fantasy points (FBG scoring), good for RB18 last year

He will have to exceed those numbers to have value, based on FBG's current ADP for him, which is RB17.

EDIT: I'm assuming he plays 14 games.

 

[Rev]

In his rookie campaign, Jones had 241 carries (@ 4.7 yards/carry) combined with 41 targets for 28 receptions (6.4 yards/reception).  Last year, he carried the ball only 186 times (3.6 yards/carry) and was targeted 28 times for 20 receptions (5.5 yards/reception).  Both seasons, he ran for 5 TDs.  Simply put: Jones is more productive with more touches.  Given that Jones has been working extremely hard to hone his receiving skills, he could very well become a legimate, 3-down back, which in Martz' system means FF delight.  If Jones can find a way to stay healthy and fend off the very talented Brian Calhoun, expect impressive numbers in 2006:

  275 carries @ 5.3 ypc = 1450 yards and 8 TDs

  52 targets for 42 receptions and 280 yards

More productive with more carries? Questionable. He's more productive against horrible rush Ds that he faced in 2004. Go check who he beat up on for those final 8 games.He's more productive when running through swiss cheese.

Not sure you can toss out 1.1 ypc drop because he didn't get the ball enough. Maybe if he didn't choke so hard, he would have had some more carries.

Did you watch any Lions games last year? Jones hardly touched the ball. Whole quarters would go buy with him getting a single carry. It's simply irrefutable that a young RB like Jones needs consistant carries and touches in order to get into a rhythm and perform well. And those cake defenses that you say he ran so well against during his rookie year... well the Lions didn't switch conferences last year. He ran against the same teams, pretty much the same D's, but produced far less in a poor offense when fewer touches. Granted, more touches could mean a higher chance of getting injured, but more carries could also have the opposite effect on Jones' durability. More touches could paradoxically mean that he runs with more confidence and less hesitancy when moving and cutting, which could avert the awkward tackles and body positioning that lead to injury.

 

[Tusken Raider]

Haven't seen anyone post how DET's offensive line is looking this year. Any significant personnel gains/losses, & how do they stack up in regards to opening up holes for KJ?

 

[TME]

Many of these projections have not included carries. Those that have included them have projected 275, 260, 280, 275, 275, 300, 265, 260.

With the Rams for the past 6 years, the highest carry total for any Martz back was 260 by Faulk in 2001. Faulk also had 253 in 2000. Jackson was on a 16 game pace for 243 last season before Vitt took over for Martz. Next highest was Faulk with 212 in 2002. Faulk was a HOF RB who averaged 4.7 ypc from 2000-2005 for Martz, yet Martz gave him only 16.9 carries per game over that span. That does scale up to 270 carries in 16 games... but Jones isn't Faulk and may not get the ball as much from Martz.

I guess my point here is that some of these carry projections seem high to me.

These are the ypc projections for those who projected carries: 4.3, 4.4, 4.8, 5.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.6, 4.2

You are right, Jones is not Faulk. That's why he will need more carries. Faulk averaged ~5.4 YPC in those 3 years of prime St. Louis football. Generally, no one thinks Jones will achieve that YPC so over a given distance, that means more carries. That is, Faulk's guady YPC and the overall explosiveness of that offense led to less touches. It takes less touches to get to the endzone when you are getting big chunks.Now for the next obvious point, Faulk was catching some 80 balls over those years. You are looking at carries. You should be looking at touches. Now, yes, Jones is not Faulk. He's not as dynamic and therefore will get most his touches in a more traditional way (handoff) than Faulk. Faulk was getting combined 330 touches (all of incredibly efficiency) in those years. Most of us have Jones in a 320 touch area with much less efficiency. It's in the hunt of reasonableness and I do not think unusual at all.

I think people have discounted down the fact that the Detroit offense will not mirror the St. Louis offense simply because of Martz. Personnel has a lot to do with it, and Detroit's personnel is not as good. So, we expect better things but only reasonably better.

 

[Rev]

A recent Lions article (discussed on this thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...owtopic=248821) has an assertion that the Lions will try to get KJ 25 to 35 touches a game. If say 5 of those touches are receptions, and if he can run for a mere 4 yards per carry on say 20 rushes a game, it would mean the following:

80 receptions and 320 carries for 1280 rushing yards (in 16 games)

If he were to get 25 rushes a game instead of 20, bump his carries up by 80 (400)and his rushing totals up by 320 yards (1600).

Edited to correct my poor math...

In my leage, if he could even get his yearly average of 5 TDs, this would easily put him in the top 5. Can he stay healthy through the season, and can the team get him all these touches, we'll see... but KJ owners gotta love the goal of getting him the rock that often.

 

[nygiants56]

Kevin Jones

280 Rushes

1344 Rushing Yards

7 Rushing Touchdowns

42 Catches

310 Receiving Yards

3 Receiving Touchdowns

Martz's offense will benefit him a lot.

 

[Tau837]

Many of these projections have not included carries.  Those that have included them have projected 275, 260, 280, 275, 275, 300, 265, 260.

With the Rams for the past 6 years, the highest carry total for any Martz back was 260 by Faulk in 2001.  Faulk also had 253 in 2000.  Jackson was on a 16 game pace for 243 last season before Vitt took over for Martz.  Next highest was Faulk with 212 in 2002.  Faulk was a HOF RB who averaged 4.7 ypc from 2000-2005 for Martz, yet Martz gave him only 16.9 carries per game over that span.  That does scale up to 270 carries in 16 games... but Jones isn't Faulk and may not get the ball as much from Martz.

I guess my point here is that some of these carry projections seem high to me.

These are the ypc projections for those who projected carries:  4.3, 4.4, 4.8, 5.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.6, 4.2

You are right, Jones is not Faulk. That's why he will need more carries. Faulk averaged ~5.4 YPC in those 3 years of prime St. Louis football. Generally, no one thinks Jones will achieve that YPC so over a given distance, that means more carries. That is, Faulk's guady YPC and the overall explosiveness of that offense led to less touches. It takes less touches to get to the endzone when you are getting big chunks.Now for the next obvious point, Faulk was catching some 80 balls over those years. You are looking at carries. You should be looking at touches. Now, yes, Jones is not Faulk. He's not as dynamic and therefore will get most his touches in a more traditional way (handoff) than Faulk. Faulk was getting combined 330 touches (all of incredibly efficiency) in those years. Most of us have Jones in a 320 touch area with much less efficiency. It's in the hunt of reasonableness and I do not think unusual at all.

I think people have discounted down the fact that the Detroit offense will not mirror the St. Louis offense simply because of Martz. Personnel has a lot to do with it, and Detroit's personnel is not as good. So, we expect better things but only reasonably better.

If you think projecting 320 touches for a guy who has had 269 and 206, respectively, in his first two seasons, while at the same time predicting significant productivity gains in both rushing and receiving, then I'll just agree to disagree with you.You seem to be starting with Faulk's numbers, in his HOF prime seasons, and working down from them to arrive at a projection. You may be right, but I think that is a flawed approach.

In particular, you seem to think that Jones running for less yards on average means Martz will run more. I wouldn't draw that same conclusion at all. If anything, Martz is predisposed to pass. If Jones doesn't get as many yards on his average runs, then that just leaves more yards to go for every first down/TD, which could easily spur Martz to pass even more.

 

[Tau837]

A recent Lions article (discussed on this thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...owtopic=248821) has an assertion that the Lions will try to get KJ 25 to 35 touches a game. If say 5 of those touches are receptions, and if he can run for a mere 4 yards per carry on say 20 rushes a game, it would mean the following:

80 receptions and 320 carries for 1280 rushing yards (in 16 games)

If he were to get 25 rushes a game instead of 20, bump his carries up by 80 (400)and his rushing totals up by 320 yards (1600).

Edited to correct my poor math...

In my leage, if he could even get his yearly average of 5 TDs, this would easily put him in the top 5. Can he stay healthy through the season, and can the team get him all these touches, we'll see... but KJ owners gotta love the goal of getting him the rock that often.

There are statements like this every offseason/preseason about many RBs and how many carries/touches they will get. A RB has had 400 regular season carries only 4 times in NFL history.Even 320 carries ("just 20 per game") is much less likely than people think. There were only 8 RBs in the NFL last year with 320+ carries. Only 17 RBs had 250+ carries last season.

And as I posted previously, Martz never had a RB with more than 260. Here is where Martz's teams finished in carries in his 5+ years in St. Louis:

2000 - 26th

2001 - 22nd

2002 - 32nd

2003 - 28th

2004 - 30th

2005 - 29th

So not only are you guys looking for a big change for Jones, you're also looking for a big change from Martz. Good luck with that.

 

[TME]

A recent Lions article (discussed on this thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...owtopic=248821) has an assertion that the Lions will try to get KJ 25 to 35 touches a game.  If say 5 of those touches are receptions, and if he can run for a mere 4 yards per carry on say 20 rushes a game, it would mean the following:

80 receptions and 320 carries for 1280 rushing yards (in 16 games)

If he were to get 25 rushes a game instead of 20, bump his carries up by 80 (400)and his rushing totals up by 320 yards (1600). 

Edited to correct my poor math...

In my leage, if he could even get his yearly average of 5 TDs, this would easily put him in the top 5.  Can he stay healthy through the season, and can the team get him all these touches, we'll see... but KJ owners gotta love the goal of getting him the rock that often.

There are statements like this every offseason/preseason about many RBs and how many carries/touches they will get. A RB has had 400 regular season carries only 4 times in NFL history.Even 320 carries ("just 20 per game") is much less likely than people think. There were only 8 RBs in the NFL last year with 320+ carries. Only 17 RBs had 250+ carries last season.

And as I posted previously, Martz never had a RB with more than 260. Here is where Martz's teams finished in carries in his 5+ years in St. Louis:

2000 - 26th

2001 - 22nd

2002 - 32nd

2003 - 28th

2004 - 30th

2005 - 29th

So not only are you guys looking for a big change for Jones, you're also looking for a big change from Martz. Good luck with that.

I think you are trying to "boil it up" from the bottom starting with carries and YPC to arrive at a player projection. I think you need to start from the top down from team, to player(s) to touches and YPC. Your KJ projection would seem to indicate either injury or RBBC to me. True? Otherwise, you are going to be way light on total offense. What do you see for the Detroit backfield as a whole then?

 

[TME]

If you think projecting 320 touches for a guy who has had 269 and 206, respectively, in his first two seasons, while at the same time predicting significant productivity gains in both rushing and receiving, then I'll just agree to disagree with you. The guy has not had a full time season yet. I am predicting this will be the one. All information as of now seems to support that assumption.You seem to be starting with Faulk's numbers, in his HOF prime seasons, and working down from them to arrive at a projection. You may be right, but I think that is a flawed approach. No, you brought up Faulks numbers as a benchmark in Martz's offense for RB carries. I tried to connect the dots for you in terms of carries and touches between the two. My estimates have nothnig to do with Faulk. They are simply based on an overall productivity projection worked into and massaged with touches and yards.

In particular, you seem to think that Jones running for less yards on average means Martz will run more. I wouldn't draw that same conclusion at all. If anything, Martz is predisposed to pass. If Jones doesn't get as many yards on his average runs, then that just leaves more yards to go for every first down/TD, which could easily spur Martz to pass even more. Not necessarily. My point was simply that that offense was unique and explosive and as productive as it was, I bet if you looked at team touches, it would appear way low relatively speaking. The Lions will not be that explosive. They will need more snaps to work the ball down the field that's all. More snaps translate into more touches but they will not do as much per touch. Common sense, IMO. The offense will not be that efficient.

In bold above.

 

[jurb26]

Many of these projections have not included carries. Those that have included them have projected 275, 260, 280, 275, 275, 300, 265, 260.

With the Rams for the past 6 years, the highest carry total for any Martz back was 260 by Faulk in 2001. Faulk also had 253 in 2000. Jackson was on a 16 game pace for 243 last season before Vitt took over for Martz. Next highest was Faulk with 212 in 2002. Faulk was a HOF RB who averaged 4.7 ypc from 2000-2005 for Martz, yet Martz gave him only 16.9 carries per game over that span. That does scale up to 270 carries in 16 games... but Jones isn't Faulk and may not get the ball as much from Martz.

I guess my point here is that some of these carry projections seem high to me.

These are the ypc projections for those who projected carries: 4.3, 4.4, 4.8, 5.3, 4.4, 4.3, 4.6, 4.2

You are right, Jones is not Faulk. That's why he will need more carries. Faulk averaged ~5.4 YPC in those 3 years of prime St. Louis football. Generally, no one thinks Jones will achieve that YPC so over a given distance, that means more carries. That is, Faulk's guady YPC and the overall explosiveness of that offense led to less touches. It takes less touches to get to the endzone when you are getting big chunks.Now for the next obvious point, Faulk was catching some 80 balls over those years. You are looking at carries. You should be looking at touches. Now, yes, Jones is not Faulk. He's not as dynamic and therefore will get most his touches in a more traditional way (handoff) than Faulk. Faulk was getting combined 330 touches (all of incredibly efficiency) in those years. Most of us have Jones in a 320 touch area with much less efficiency. It's in the hunt of reasonableness and I do not think unusual at all.

I think people have discounted down the fact that the Detroit offense will not mirror the St. Louis offense simply because of Martz. Personnel has a lot to do with it, and Detroit's personnel is not as good. So, we expect better things but only reasonably better.

If you think projecting 320 touches for a guy who has had 269 and 206, respectively, in his first two seasons, while at the same time predicting significant productivity gains in both rushing and receiving, then I'll just agree to disagree with you.You seem to be starting with Faulk's numbers, in his HOF prime seasons, and working down from them to arrive at a projection. You may be right, but I think that is a flawed approach.

In particular, you seem to think that Jones running for less yards on average means Martz will run more. I wouldn't draw that same conclusion at all. If anything, Martz is predisposed to pass. If Jones doesn't get as many yards on his average runs, then that just leaves more yards to go for every first down/TD, which could easily spur Martz to pass even more.

JWB you seem to be forgeting that Martz will not have a top 5 Oline, Warner in his prime and 2 Stud WRs in their primes with his new O in Detroit. Jones is his best player on O. If not the best, then 1 of his 2 best and the drop off after those 2 is rather steep unlike what St.L had years ago. It seems to make sense that he would see a large amoun tof the touches in this O.

 

[T Man]

A recent Lions article (discussed on this thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...owtopic=248821) has an assertion that the Lions will try to get KJ 25 to 35 touches a game.  If say 5 of those touches are receptions, and if he can run for a mere 4 yards per carry on say 20 rushes a game, it would mean the following:

80 receptions and 320 carries for 1280 rushing yards (in 16 games)

If he were to get 25 rushes a game instead of 20, bump his carries up by 80 (400)and his rushing totals up by 320 yards (1600). 

Edited to correct my poor math...

In my leage, if he could even get his yearly average of 5 TDs, this would easily put him in the top 5.  Can he stay healthy through the season, and can the team get him all these touches, we'll see... but KJ owners gotta love the goal of getting him the rock that often.

There are statements like this every offseason/preseason about many RBs and how many carries/touches they will get. A RB has had 400 regular season carries only 4 times in NFL history.Even 320 carries ("just 20 per game") is much less likely than people think. There were only 8 RBs in the NFL last year with 320+ carries. Only 17 RBs had 250+ carries last season.

And as I posted previously, Martz never had a RB with more than 260. Here is where Martz's teams finished in carries in his 5+ years in St. Louis:

2000 - 26th

2001 - 22nd

2002 - 32nd

2003 - 28th

2004 - 30th

2005 - 29th

So not only are you guys looking for a big change for Jones, you're also looking for a big change from Martz. Good luck with that.

JWW - not disagreeing numbers, but it seems that you haven't fractored in the influence of Marinelli - whom I suspect will want the ball run more to rest his defense. I am not so sure that Martz will be as wide open as he was in his St. Louis days. Also, I would think that his prior gigs as coordinator are more indicative of where he might go; and even then, I suspect that Marinelli is far more conservative then Vermeil.IF KJ wins the job and is a third round back and plays a full season (ALL BIG IFS), I think his carries will be somewhere between 275-320, and he will also have plenty of opportunities to catch the ball as Kitna will need to dump off.

 

[John Mamula]

227 rushes for 929 yards and 5 TDs

20 rec. for 118 yards and 0 TDs

#31 RB WCOFF

#29 RB standard

 

[Tau837]

Your KJ projection would seem to indicate either injury or RBBC to me. True?

True. I assumed he will play 14 games, which is his average over the past two seasons. I'll add that to my projection.

 

[Tau837]

In particular, you seem to think that Jones running for less yards on average means Martz will run more.  I wouldn't draw that same conclusion at all.  If anything, Martz is predisposed to pass.  If Jones doesn't get as many yards on his average runs, then that just leaves more yards to go for every first down/TD, which could easily spur Martz to pass even more. Not necessarily.  My point was simply that that offense was unique and explosive and as productive as it was, I bet if you looked at team touches, it would appear way low relatively speaking.  The Lions will not be that explosive.  They will need more snaps to work the ball down the field that's all.  More snaps translate into more touches but they will not do as much per touch.  Common sense, IMO.  The offense will not be that efficient.

In bold above.

I thought the underlined statement was counter-intuitive, so I looked it up. Combined passing & rushing attempts for the Rams from pro-football-reference.com:2000 967

2001 967

2002 978

2003 970

2004 1011

2005 978 (Martz only coached first 5 games)

Note that this isn't the same as offensive plays, because of field goals, punts, kneel downs (?), etc.

I'm not sure where to find out how that ranks. (EDIT: but it doesn't look "way low" to me.) For comparison purposes:

Detroit 2004 - 913

Detroit 2005 - 924

I wouldn't be so sure that Detroit will have more combined passing & rushing attempts than those St. Louis teams. So even if Detroit's passing attempts are lower relative to those Rams teams, that doesn't necessarily mean the rushing attempts will be higher.

 

[Tau837]

JWB you seem to be forgeting that Martz will not have a top 5 Oline, Warner in his prime and 2 Stud WRs in their primes with his new O in Detroit. Jones is his best player on O. If not the best, then 1 of his 2 best and the drop off after those 2 is rather steep unlike what St.L had years ago. It seems to make sense that he would see a large amoun tof the touches in this O.

I'm not forgetting. How does that help Jones? You seem to be making an assumption that, lacking the same caliber of talent for the passing game, Martz will adjust to a different offensive style. Is that what you believe? I agree that his style will be as wide open, but I don't believe it will be fundamentally changed.

 

[Tau837]

JWW - not disagreeing numbers, but it seems that you haven't fractored in the influence of Marinelli - whom I suspect will want the ball run more to rest his defense. I am not so sure that Martz will be as wide open as he was in his St. Louis days. Also, I would think that his prior gigs as coordinator are more indicative of where he might go; and even then, I suspect that Marinelli is far more conservative then Vermeil.

IF KJ wins the job and is a third round back and plays a full season (ALL BIG IFS), I think his carries will be somewhere between 275-320, and he will also have plenty of opportunities to catch the ball as Kitna will need to dump off.

If I'm not mistaken, Martz's only stint as a coordinator was as the Rams' offensive coordinator in 1999, unless you're counting Arizona State in the 80s. In 1999, the offense was only 20th in the NFL in passing attempts and Faulk had averaged 5.5 ypc, yet he got only 253 carries in 16 games.

 

[jurb26]

JWB you seem to be forgeting that Martz will not have a top 5 Oline, Warner in his prime and 2 Stud WRs in their primes with his new O in Detroit. Jones is his best player on O. If not the best, then 1 of his 2 best and the drop off after those 2 is rather steep unlike what St.L had years ago. It seems to make sense that he would see a large amoun tof the touches in this O.

I'm not forgetting. How does that help Jones? You seem to be making an assumption that, lacking the same caliber of talent for the passing game, Martz will adjust to a different offensive style. Is that what you believe? I agree that his style will be as wide open, but I don't believe it will be fundamentally changed.

Good coaches adapt to the talent around them. I think Martz will to. Or do you think Martz will blindly use all of these guys the same way he did that stable of talent in St.L? What kind of sense does that make?

 

[Tau837]

JWB you seem to be forgeting that Martz will not have a top 5 Oline, Warner in his prime and 2 Stud WRs in their primes with his new O in Detroit.  Jones is his best player on O.  If not the best, then 1 of his 2 best and the drop off after those 2 is rather steep unlike what St.L had years ago.  It seems to make sense that he would see a large amoun tof the touches in this O.

I'm not forgetting. How does that help Jones? You seem to be making an assumption that, lacking the same caliber of talent for the passing game, Martz will adjust to a different offensive style. Is that what you believe? I agree that his style will be as wide open, but I don't believe it will be fundamentally changed.

Good coaches adapt to the talent around them. I think Martz will to. Or do you think Martz will blindly use all of these guys the same way he did that stable of talent in St.L? What kind of sense does that make?

Do you think it made great sense that Martz never gave Faulk more carries? I can't remember how many times I saw the stat posted in games that the Rams were something like 27-0 when Faulk rushed for 100 yards, yet there were plenty of games that he abandoned the run far too early.I think Martz's reputation is more of a guy who wants to prove to everyone that he can make his system work than a guy who will be flexible about the system he uses.

But again, we can simply agree to disagree.

 

[jurb26]

Do you think it made great sense that Martz never gave Faulk more carries? I can't remember how many times I saw the stat posted in games that the Rams were something like 27-0 when Faulk rushed for 100 yards, yet there were plenty of games that he abandoned the run far too early.

I think Martz's reputation is more of a guy who wants to prove to everyone that he can make his system work than a guy who will be flexible about the system he uses.

But again, we can simply agree to disagree.

Did you ever stop to think that maybe the reason he was so inclined to pass and abandon the run was because of the resources he had in the passing game? I'm not saying it was the right decision. Only that there is a DRASTIC difference in the players abilities from that St.L team to this Det team. You can apply numbers all you want, but at some point you have to evalutate the players on their ability too. Det doesnt have a QB who could hold Warners clipboard from those teams. The Oline is vastly inferior in pass blocking. Jones and no RB on the roster posses half the rec threat that Faulk did. The Bruce Holt duo is lightyears better than anything Det can throw on the field. It just dont' add up to try and apply the same old St.L scheme. If he does not alter it, I would be shocked. But like you say we can agree to disagree.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Cat fight.



Keep it up.

 

[DrJ]

A recent Lions article (discussed on this thread: http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...owtopic=248821) has an assertion that the Lions will try to get KJ 25 to 35 touches a game.  If say 5 of those touches are receptions, and if he can run for a mere 4 yards per carry on say 20 rushes a game, it would mean the following:

80 receptions and 320 carries for 1280 rushing yards (in 16 games)

If he were to get 25 rushes a game instead of 20, bump his carries up by 80 (400)and his rushing totals up by 320 yards (1600). 

Edited to correct my poor math...

In my leage, if he could even get his yearly average of 5 TDs, this would easily put him in the top 5.  Can he stay healthy through the season, and can the team get him all these touches, we'll see... but KJ owners gotta love the goal of getting him the rock that often.

There are statements like this every offseason/preseason about many RBs and how many carries/touches they will get. A RB has had 400 regular season carries only 4 times in NFL history.Even 320 carries ("just 20 per game") is much less likely than people think. There were only 8 RBs in the NFL last year with 320+ carries. Only 17 RBs had 250+ carries last season.

And as I posted previously, Martz never had a RB with more than 260. Here is where Martz's teams finished in carries in his 5+ years in St. Louis:

2000 - 26th

2001 - 22nd

2002 - 32nd

2003 - 28th

2004 - 30th

2005 - 29th

So not only are you guys looking for a big change for Jones, you're also looking for a big change from Martz. Good luck with that.

Injury accounts for some of that. A 320 carry RB that misses 2 games is down to 280...pretty significant.

 

[DrJ]

How many years did Faulk play 16 games? I count an entire 1 in St Louis as the feature RB. Missing a couple of games is obviously going to knock the totals down some.

1999 - 253 carries in 16 games, his one healthy season

2000 - 253 carries in 14 games. 18 carries a game, on pace for 289 through 16.

2001 - 260 carries in 14 games. 18.57 carries a game, on pace for 297 through 16.

2002 - Only 212 in 14, 15.14 carries a game. 242 in a season.

2003 - 209 in 11 games. 19 carries a game, on pace for 304 on a season.

2004 - Started RBBC'ing with Jackson, and still got 195 in 14. 13.9 a game, on pace for 223 in a season.

Martz WAS running Faulk 18-19 time a game when he was healthy in many seasons.

If you want to say that KJ won't hit 300 carries because he can't stay healthy, or won't play 3 downs, that's a valid point. But Martz won't be the reason, and should have him right around that 300 carry point assuming 16 healthy games - even without Marinelli's influence.

 

[DrJ]

How many partial games does Faulk have in there as well during some of those banged up seasons? How many weeks did he rest due to having playoff situations locked up? Maybe St Louis homers can help us out on that one.

For instance, in his 2000 season he has 3 games with single digit carries. Did he only play part of any of those games? He has games of 25, 20, 25, 25, 22, and 32 carries in those 14 games...Martz WILL give it to his RB contrary to popular opinion.

In 2001, he has another game with single digit carries. Down the stretch, Martz was running the crap out of the guy though - 25, 22, 30, 25, 20 carries in the last 5 games along with two more 20's, and 18, and a 19 in other parts of the season.

In 2002, he had a lot of low digit carry games. In the middle of the season, Martz was running him like mad though. 18, 18, 26, 32, and 27 carries in 5 games in the middle.

In 2003, you simply can't say Martz wasn't running the guy. He missed weeks 4-9, and when he came back he ran him 20, 20, 24, 17, 24, 28, 22 times. Then the final week he got it 12 times against Detroit. Was the playoff positioning locked at that point?

Bottom line, there's no question that Martz is more than willing to give it to the RB an awful lot when he's healthy. There's really no questions that Kevin Jones can hit 300 with the possibility for more with him as OC.

 

[Deuce'sWild]

How many partial games does Faulk have in there as well during some of those banged up seasons? How many weeks did he rest due to having playoff situations locked up? Maybe St Louis homers can help us out on that one.

For instance, in his 2000 season he has 3 games with single digit carries. Did he only play part of any of those games? He has games of 25, 20, 25, 25, 22, and 32 carries in those 14 games...Martz WILL give it to his RB contrary to popular opinion.

In 2001, he has another game with single digit carries. Down the stretch, Martz was running the crap out of the guy though - 25, 22, 30, 25, 20 carries in the last 5 games along with two more 20's, and 18, and a 19 in other parts of the season.

In 2002, he had a lot of low digit carry games. In the middle of the season, Martz was running him like mad though. 18, 18, 26, 32, and 27 carries in 5 games in the middle.

In 2003, you simply can't say Martz wasn't running the guy. He missed weeks 4-9, and when he came back he ran him 20, 20, 24, 17, 24, 28, 22 times. Then the final week he got it 12 times against Detroit. Was the playoff positioning locked at that point?

Bottom line, there's no question that Martz is more than willing to give it to the RB an awful lot when he's healthy. There's really no questions that Kevin Jones can hit 300 with the possibility for more with him as OC.

And you know that Martz likes to feed his RB the ball inside the 10. I don't think any of us forget how much of a TD machine Faulk was.

 

[Provy Wit]

Took him at 1.11 last year and obviously paid dearly.

I dont care that Mooch is gone, they could have the 92 Redskins O-line, there is no way Im drafting him as my #2 RB this year. The Lions are a disaster, they hyped KJ last year and he came up short. This guy is going to get 300 carries?? You must be joking. There down by 2 scores by the end of the 1st quarter. This is a very deep RB draft this year. Stay away from this guy. Lions are awful.

 

[captainmarveljr]

One of my rules for fantasy football is "once bitten, twice shy". When a player on your roster doesn't perform, why acquire him again? I've been burned by Donte Stallworth, Kerry Collins (still get the shivers about that one!) and Kevin Jones.

There was plenty of hype last year about his great pre-season shape, and we know what happened. Now the hype is flowing again, and I'm not drinking that flavor of Kool-Aid. No way he's my #2 back, and I'd only consider him for #3.

 

[billymays]

KJ is an awesome talent. The lions were a mess last year. The Oline is more physical with rex tucker and ross verba.

The other thing you guys are forgetting is that martz isnt the head coach

Marinelli has actually ordered Martz to run the ball more.

Calhoun isnt getting playing time this year(special teamer)

Bryson is a better pass catcher(one of the best receiving backs in the league imo) but he is a fb this year.

The motto that the lions are using this year(which is already old is "pound the rock")

the coaches are saying "we will only go as far as kj takes us"

ill take kj

you guys can have mcgahee

 

[JAMMIN]

Do you have anything backing up your Lions motto. He is a guy that based on his ADP is right about my 2nd pick.

However I think KJ has to prove something before he can be trusted again. The guy was a total waste last year and now he is being pumped up again. I don't understand what has happened to make this guy get so much love. Okay so he worked out in the offseason and he looks good. Conditioning does not always translate into a big season and big time performances on the field. All of the positive news about KJ sounds like normal coach speak.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Took him at 1.11 last year and obviously paid dearly.I dont care that Mooch is gone, they could have the 92 Redskins O-line, there is no way Im drafting him as my #2 RB this year. The Lions are a disaster, they hyped KJ last year and he came up short. This guy is going to get 300 carries?? You must be joking. There down by 2 scores by the end of the 1st quarter. This is a very deep RB draft this year. Stay away from this guy. Lions are awful.

So you're claiming that the Lions could fix all the problems that made them terrible on offense last season, and that they would still be terrible just because they're the Lions?

 

[Shiver44]

The arguement that Martz doesn't run enough does not apply. Those aformentioned numbers come from Martz being the Head Coach and OC. From 2000-2005, he didn't run. However, when he was the OC working for Vermeil, the Run/Pass ratio was about split down the middle. Rod Marinelli is a tough, hard-nosed, run and play D kind of coach. He's already said he wants to "pound" the rock.

 

[Tau837]

The arguement that Martz doesn't run enough does not apply. Those aformentioned numbers come from Martz being the Head Coach and OC. From 2000-2005, he didn't run. However, when he was the OC working for Vermeil, the Run/Pass ratio was about split down the middle. Rod Marinelli is a tough, hard-nosed, run and play D kind of coach. He's already said he wants to "pound" the rock.

Your bolded statement is false. From earlier in this thread:

If I'm not mistaken, Martz's only stint as a coordinator was as the Rams' offensive coordinator in 1999, unless you're counting Arizona State in the 80s. In 1999, the offense was only 20th in the NFL in passing attempts and Faulk had averaged 5.5 ypc, yet he got only 253 carries in 16 games.

The Rams attempted 530 passes and rushed 431 times in 1999. Is that your definition of "about split down the middle"?And this bears repeating. In that season, despite being a dominant runner, Faulk got only 253 carries in 16 games.