Player Spotlight: Kurt Warner (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Kurt Warner Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[nygiants56]

Loads of talent around him, VERY weak NFC West defenses and an easy schedule.

Health is the main concern.

3800-28-15

these high-end estimates, I know! but maybe Warner has one good Pro Bowl year left in him, just maybe.

Edge allows this offense to be more than just a one-dimensional system(passing-only) whioch will keep defenses on their heels..

You have to trust that Denny Green will air it out once again.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

3800, 20 & 18 if he can play all year.

 

[phillymatrix]

I belive the cardinals aired it out last year more out of necessity than than by design. Green wanted to run way more than than they did last year but they were ineffective up front and at rb. Warners got excellent wideout talent around him and I expect his line to be improved;in pass protection and the running the game but they brought in Edge for a reason so I see Warners numbers at about 3,400 passing yds, 24 tds for the season . Green wants to run the rock in the red zone and avoid turnovers which Warner has a habit of producing frequently by int or fumbling. The defense was actually not to bad last year and should be more seasoned this year which will allow them to attempt more ball control thus lowering Warners stats.

 

[perry147]

I belive the cardinals aired it out last year more out of necessity than than by design. Green wanted to run way more than than they did last year but they were ineffective up front and at rb. Warners got excellent wideout talent around him and I expect his line to be improved;in pass protection and the running the game but they brought in Edge for a reason so I see Warners numbers at about 3,400 passing yds, 24 tds for the season . Green wants to run the rock in the red zone and avoid turnovers which Warner has a habit of producing frequently by int or fumbling. The defense was actually not to bad last year and should be more seasoned this year which will allow them to attempt more ball control thus lowering Warners stats.

Good post but I think yur projection of 24 TD's is high and I think Edge will steal some of the red zone plays that were passes last year. I look for about 20-22 TD and 3,200 Yards.

 

[H.K.]

Assuming he plays in 16 games:

3574 passing

19 TD's

11 Int

Other General Assumptions:

1) Cards are more balanced on Offense with Edge in the fold

2) Passing TD totals will not be too high with more red zone rushes this season

3) AZ defense keeps games lower scoring, may not see as much of wide open attack this year as a result

 

[redman]

They're trying to improve it, but I just don't like that o-line in front of him. Edge will steal TD's too.

With a guy like Warner who I "know" will be injured, I project his stats for a full, healthy 16 games and then note on my board the high injury risk. I then draft from my gut, often selecting lower ranked players but opting for him if circumstances warrant. My 16-game projections are:

3800/21/17

*Note that Warner's career +41 TD/INT differential is strongly based upon his performance in one season, 1999, when he was a phenomenal +28 (41/13).

 

[phillymatrix]

I belive the cardinals aired it out last year more out of necessity than than by design. Green wanted to run way more than than they did last year but they were ineffective up front and at rb. Warners got excellent wideout talent around him and I expect his line to be improved;in pass protection and the running the game but they brought in Edge for a reason so I see Warners numbers at about 3,400 passing yds, 24 tds for the season . Green wants to run the rock in the red zone and avoid turnovers which Warner has a habit of producing frequently by int or fumbling. The defense was actually not to bad last year and should be more seasoned this year which will allow them to attempt more ball control thus lowering Warners stats.

I felt 24 was a little high also,but I thought about injuries on defense which always seem to happen later in the season to most teams which cause them to air it out more.I know it's pretty point less to factor in injuries but one thing I notice every year is someones corner goes down or both go down (mid season usually)and then you have some guy that was 3rd string cb now playing against the likes of Issac Bruce,Reggie Wayne, a Joey Porter and he gets roasted . I t happens every year to every team it seems. The better team suck it up the lesser ones implode.

 

[Z-Dog]

I'm not sure that Edge will cut into the passing TDs all that much. For one, he brings legitimacy to the play-action game, so while he might take a couple of goaline TDs away, he will add a few long bomb TDs through play-action. Also, Edge isn't the most accomplished goaline runner, and has been up-and-down throughout his career in short yardage. If you're Denny Green, and you've got Fitzgerald and Boldin to throw to in the red zone, I think you go with it. Cris Carter and Randy Moss caught a LOT of TDs under Green.

If Warner is healthy, 3500-27-18 seems reasonable. Of course, I actually expect Warner to get injured, and think Leinert will take the job and never look back. But that's just me.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

*Note that Warner's career +41 TD/INT differential is strongly based upon his performance in one season, 1999, when he was a phenomenal +28 (41/13).

It amazes me that people don't factor that in. He had ONE good year with TD:INT ratio. That was Warner in his prime, injury-free, playing for the greatest show on turf. He's never even come close to a 2:1 TD ratio again, much less 3:1. He's just not that guy anymore.If Warner throws 30 TDs, this year, he's throwing close to 30 INTs as well. I don't see him throwing anything close to 30 though. Anything over 20 is a bonus for him IMO.

 

[5Rings]

I'm only going to project Warner for 10 games, as thats all he's played each of the last two years.

1900, 9-7

 

[redman]

I'm only going to project Warner for 10 games, as thats all he's played each of the last two years.

1900, 9-7

Two years ago he had the de facto #1 overall draft pick supplant him as the franchise QB. I'm not saying you're wrong about him only playing 10 games or otherwise being injured, but let's not suggest a numerical trend based upon injury.

 

[jaybaer]

I belive the cardinals aired it out last year more out of necessity than than by design. Green wanted to run way more than than they did last year but they were ineffective up front and at rb. Warners got excellent wideout talent around him and I expect his line to be improved;in pass protection and the running the game but they brought in Edge for a reason so I see Warners numbers at about 3,400 passing yds, 24 tds for the season . Green wants to run the rock in the red zone and avoid turnovers which Warner has a habit of producing frequently by int or fumbling. The defense was actually not to bad last year and should be more seasoned this year which will allow them to attempt more ball control thus lowering Warners stats.

java script:emoticon(' ')smilie

Absolutely. Green doesn't want to throw it all over the field, but when you absolutely CANNOT run the ball and have multiple stud receivers, you put it in the air just to keep yourself in the game.

Defense will be improved, especially since multiple starters were out last year for significant portions of the season.

100% sold out home games for the first time.....ever.....should help the intensity on the D side, too. So, I expect the Cards to show more run/pass balance, and by all accounts the line is still absolutely brutal. Plus, he got hurt last year ROLLING OUT UNTOUCHED, and he's a year older/more fragile.

Last year's healthy games may have been the late career statistical pinnacle for Warner.

Assumes 12 games....

2880 15 12

 

[devilscl]

I'd say 2500, 15, 16, him and this team are really overhyped in my opinion

 

[Jason Wood]

I think, given his history, you have to look at Warner's value from a part-time standpoint. Recognizing that while he's healthy and on the field, he can give you QB1 production in many weeks; but that some weeks he won't be available.

With that in mind, I certainly wouldn't draft him as my QB1; but as a late game backup? Absolutely.

 

[Dancing Bear]

To piggy back off of your thought Jason, he is a perfect candidate for QBBC [i think that Clayton has crafted a great article about this last year]. You can find many possible combinations of QBBC including Warner and be very happy with the outcome especially given that you will not have to pay a high price for the combination!

 

[joffer]

335/530/3810/23/17 passing

18/40/0 rushing

 

[Joe T]

335/530/3810/23/17 passing

18/40/0 rushing

Is this in 8 games?Warner will probably have the highest PPG of any QB this year. The question is will that be for 5 games or 8 or 10?

I'd say Warner is a value where he's being picked now if he plays 8 or more games. His PPG alone is worthy of his current ADP.

 

[joffer]

335/530/3810/23/17 passing

18/40/0 rushing

Is this in 8 games?

14

 

[Z-Dog]

*Note that Warner's career +41 TD/INT differential is strongly based upon his performance in one season, 1999, when he was a phenomenal +28 (41/13).

It amazes me that people don't factor that in. He had ONE good year with TD:INT ratio. That was Warner in his prime, injury-free, playing for the greatest show on turf. He's never even come close to a 2:1 TD ratio again, much less 3:1. He's just not that guy anymore.If Warner throws 30 TDs, this year, he's throwing close to 30 INTs as well. I don't see him throwing anything close to 30 though. Anything over 20 is a bonus for him IMO.

Warner had two dramatic seasons for TD:INT ration. In '99 he was +28, 41:13, and two years later, he was +14, at 36:22. However, the guy just hasn't been healthy enough since then to form a true opinion. one year of 9 games with the NYG, and then 10 games with ARI... both of those were his first year with a team, and his ratio in both cases was ok, 3:2 with NYG and 11:9 with ARI. Given how much I like his offensive cast, and particularly now that he can dump to Edge, I see Warner as entirely capable of a good TD:INT ratio, on the order of 3:2 that I projected.

 

[diesel7982]

335/530/3810/23/17 passing

18/40/0 rushing

Is this in 8 games?Warner will probably have the highest PPG of any QB this year. The question is will that be for 5 games or 8 or 10?

I'd say Warner is a value where he's being picked now if he plays 8 or more games. His PPG alone is worthy of his current ADP.

Im surprised by some of the places Ive been seeing Warner getting drafted. He seems like a lock for 250-275 yards and 1.3 TDs/gm.

 

[Byron_nyc]

Ask yourself: Is Kurt Warner a lock for the Hall of Fame? You'll hestitate, but the answer is "absolutely." This guy has won every accolade and trophy and holds several all-time best statistical marks. Why he gets no love is long story involving wives, thumbs, Mad Mikes and Mannings -- it needs a topic forum of its own. But that is all behind him now.

Here's the takeaway: you've got a HOF QB, who has proven he can put up all-time best passing numbers in the right situation. He's got the recievers, he's got the running back, he's got the coach, he's got the soft schedule, he's got the good passing weather. The only question is the O-line. To me, the success or failure of the Arizona O-line is the biggest question in fantasy today. I think they'll gell this year and be just good enough for Kurt to have a top-5 finish.

4000 - 25 - 10.

 

[diesel7982]

Ask yourself: Is Kurt Warner a lock for the Hall of Fame? You'll hestitate, but the answer is "absolutely." This guy has won every accolade and trophy and holds several all-time best statistical marks. Why he gets no love is long story involving wives, thumbs, Mad Mikes and Mannings -- it needs a topic forum of its own. But that is all behind him now.

Here's the takeaway: you've got a HOF QB, who has proven he can put up all-time best passing numbers in the right situation. He's got the recievers, he's got the running back, he's got the coach, he's got the soft schedule, he's got the good passing weather. The only question is the O-line. To me, the success or failure of the Arizona O-line is the biggest question in fantasy today. I think they'll gell this year and be just good enough for Kurt to have a top-5 finish.

4000 - 25 - 10.

X

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Wont Edge give Warner more options and opportunities >>>>>>>>> more passing yards?

I remember a few Dennis Green teams that weren't afraid to put up the ball.

3850 PYD - 23 TD - 14 INT - Throw in at least 2 fumbles due to the bum thumb - he'll dive for 1 RTD.