Player Spotlight: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Kyle Rudolph, TE, Minnesota Vikings

Player Page Link: Kyle Rudolph Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[Herb]

Rudolph is almost impossible to make a projection for this year. Every skill position on this offense other than ADP is a huge ? Jennings is new to the team, Simpson and Carlson are healthy, Harvin is gone, Patterson looks the part of a deep threat but is a rookie and the QB is a huge unknown, having shown massive inconsistency last year. Rudolph notched 53- 493-9 last year, which aside from the TDs was not very impressive considering the lack of weapons in the passing game. By all accounts the Pro Bowl, in which Rudolph won the MVP, seemed to light a fire underneath him. Reports from minicamps state that he is ready to take the next step and realize his vast potential.

The OC Musgrave is a very conservative play caller, favoring the short passing game and a bruising running attack. This would seem to play to Ponder's abilities fairly well. I would think this translates to what we saw late last season, where Ponder was effective, but not spectacular, with very few options in the passing game. With better options, I would expect his attempts per game to rise and the team's reliance on ADP to decline a bit. Rudolph should be a key beneficiary. But let's not get carried away. This team is not going to hoist the ball 40 times a game and there are several mouths to feed from a pass catching perspective.

If Ponder goes for approx 3500 yards, I see Rudolph at around 62-70 receptions, 625-725 yards and 5-8 TDs.

 

[Borden]

Finished the year around TE13 in catches, around TE22 in yards but tied for TE2 in TDs. His ADP is TE7 which just seems too rich for me right now. Based off of usual player production 3rd players tend to improve but we all know that TDs are the toughest stat to predict and that was his only strong suit last year and at TE7 it's not as if you get to take a late round flyer and see what happens.

A guy like Greg Olsen is going later and I can see having a better year than Rudolph. Even Bennett or Gates or Myers you can get much later.

Like Herb mentioned the Vikings are going to pass enough to create a stud fantasy TE. Then add in Ponder (who I don't thing is as a bad as most people) and I just don't see Rudolph being a fantasy stud.

60/600/8 is probably his ceiling.

40/450/3 his floor.

 

[cheese]

This one depends a lot on how you project TDs. He has a great skill set for the red zone and they looked for him a lot in those spots last year. I think he could be a double digit TD guy which makes him draftable at that price even with a limited yardage ceiling. If you subscribe to the idea that TDs can't be relied on, you probably shouldn't be a Rudolph owner this season.

 

[johnadams]

Finished the year around TE13 in catches, around TE22 in yards but tied for TE2 in TDs. His ADP is TE7 which just seems too rich for me right now. Based off of usual player production 3rd players tend to improve but we all know that TDs are the toughest stat to predict and that was his only strong suit last year and at TE7 it's not as if you get to take a late round flyer and see what happens.

A guy like Greg Olsen is going later and I can see having a better year than Rudolph. Even Bennett or Gates or Myers you can get much later.

Like Herb mentioned the Vikings are going to pass enough to create a stud fantasy TE. Then add in Ponder (who I don't thing is as a bad as most people) and I just don't see Rudolph being a fantasy stud.

60/600/8 is probably his ceiling.

40/450/3 his floor.

I pretty much agree with this. Only input is that his average position in 12 teamer is early round 8 and I'd rather be filling out my upside RBs or WRs here.

 

[Biabreakable]

I think Herb pretty much nailed it. Very close to what I am expecting from Rudolph in 2013 as well. Unless Ponder plays much better than I think most of us are expecting. I can see a scenario where Rudolph does better with Cassell or another QB at some point in his career if Ponder does not. That is not something easy to project for. With the right QB and OC I can see Rudolph being an elite TE.

I need another season watching Ponder. I have watched many of the Vikings games multiple times as well. Some times I see a guy who should be starting at QB in the NFL. Some times I don't.

I think Jennings is the key. If he and Ponder can build a rapport that allows Jennings to be the #1 WR then I see that opening up the passing offense. Jennings does not need to do anything special to accomplish this. Just convert many 3rd downs. IF this does happen I see that opening up the rest of the field. Beyond Jennings the Vikings also need to improve the long ball success rate. They barely threw over 20 yards in 2012. If Ponder can hit even 30% of some deep strikes for TD that will really open up the offense as well. I think the Vikings have the players to accomplish this, what I question is if Ponder can deliver. He did throw a decent strike to Wright on a post route last year. If he can hit 4-6 throws like this, I think the Vikings will be in business.

After Harvin was injured last season Rudolph was getting constant double teams. He was having trouble releasing and sometimes would get a double jam from blitzing LB then the 2nd LB picking him up in coverage also grabbing a bit. If Ponder/Jennings can establish themselves I do not see defenses being able to do that. I think the running threat of Harvin (which will continue with Patterson/Wright) also helped free Rudolph up from coverage some as well. The LB were not all over Rudolph nearly as much when they were worried about Harvin getting loose or reversing the field.

So those are the 3 things that I can see Ponder adding another 500 or so passing yards from last season. If those things do happen then Rudolph should get much less attention and be open for some better yardage gains. Jennings can clear zones for Rudolph that never were there for him last season.

I think Jennings will be very busy in early games as the Vikings establish him in their play scripting. If this is successful and Jennings does see high volume catches early on I think this will lead to Rudolph being more open also.

Carlson may actually do a bit more in the passing game than last year, so that could take some of Rudolph's targets away even as the efficiency of those targets improve.

Last season Rudolph had 93 targets 53 catches 57% catch rate. If Rudolph can increase the targets above 100 and improve his catch rate above 60% That is going to get him into the 60-70 catch range Herb is talking about. I expect that to happen this season. There is upside for a lot more I think, but that is dependent on Ponder and OC. Rudolph did improve as a run blocker last season, but he still has a lot of room for improvement in this area of his game. He is too big and too soft of hands to not continue to get many targets in the RZ as perfect counter to go with running with AD or throwing the banana to the FB.

100-120 targets 60-72 catches 600-864 yards 5-10 TD