Player Spotlight: LaDainian Tomlinson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: LaDainian Tomlinson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[oswizzle]

1550 Rushing Yards 17 TD's 60 Rec 475 Yds 4 TD's

LT is gonna put it down this year

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Watching LaDainian Tomlinson play is like watching Picasso paint or Da Vinci sculpt; you know you are witnessing a masterpiece. It certainly doesn't get you any points in the fantasy football world, but having LT2 on your team is great because you'll be rooting for him while you watch the game every week.

It seems like he is the consensus 3rd in the "Big 3", behind Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander. But I think he should be taken first among all players this year for a couple of reasons:

1) A new QB means more reliance on him. I understand the worry of 8 defensive players packing the box if Rivers doesn't prove he cen beat you with his arm. However, I don't think that will be a problem, and I'm not sure that it even matters. LT2 started his career facing defenses that keyed on him and he did a fantastic job. I think that as the Chargers ease Rivers into the starting QB job, they will call more carries from LT than they have in the past couple of years. I expect close to 360 carries, even with the All-World Antonio Gates at TE. At his career average of 4.3 yards per carry, that's almost 1550 yards rushing. With a career average of .04 Rushing TDs per carry, I expect 16 TDs rushing this year.

2) More receptions. I know that the generally accepted principle is that young QBs check off to their TE alot because the TE is the safety valve. As great as Gates is, however, I expect that Rivers will be checking off more to Tomlinson than Gates because Tomlinson has great hands as well and it's easier to check off to a RB than a TE. Theoretically, Rivers can hold on to the ball a tiny bit longer before tossing a short pass to Tomlinson than he can when he needs to throw it down field to Gates. I can't imagine he'll reach the 100 receptions of 2003, but he should be close to the 79 of 2002. Let's say 73 receptions. At his career average of 7 yards per reception, that's 511 receiving yards. His Receiving TD career average is 1 TD per .02 receptions, so that equals an estimated 1.75 receiving TDs this year. Let's round that up to 2.

3) Better blocking. Lorenzo Neal is a great FB in front of him, but I really think that Manumaleuna will make a difference. His excellent blocking skills should allow Gates to release down field more this year. That will not only help spread out the defense, but it will also probably lead to Gates being further downfield in his routes this year, which should further enhance Tomlinson's desirability as Rivers' safety valve.

Overall, I think LT2 has an excellent shot to be the #1 overall RB this year due to the factors discussed above. My projections:

2,061 Total Yards, 19 TDs (he'll throw at least one) for 320.1 fantasy points.

Edited to add: 360 carries and 73 receptions.

 

[Bankerguy]

As I mentioned in the Gates thread, my question is what does the loss of Brees do to this Offense.

I'll say the same thing. They will bring Rivers along slowly with a vanilla type set up. LT2 will shoulder a big load, I expect his carries to increase and yards per to decrease. I like him to get a larger share of passes this year.

He is still a top 3 RB.

Rushing

355

1470

16

Rec

58

450

2

 

[jurb26]

350 carries, 1500 yds, 16 TDs, 60 rec, 450 yds, 3 TDs

 

[Banger]

Tomlinson's downside is a career year for most rb's. His worst year (besides his rookie year) was in '04 when he was hobbled with a groin injury half the year and he still had 339-1335-17 and 53-441-1.

I don't think that we've seen LT's best year yet where everything clicked just right . The Chargers have another tough schedule this year so I doubt it will be a record breaking year but with him anything is possible. He's a model of consistency and the best back in the game. His nose for the end zone has increased each season and with Rivers at the helm I can definitely see Marty playing it conservative inside the redzone and handing to old reliable.

He does everything great (run/catch/pass), plays hurt, doesn't fumble, what's not to like. I'd take him #1 in every draft without a thought.

330-1600-20 and 60-500-2

 

[zamboni]

Tomlinson's downside is a career year for most rb's. His worst year (besides his rookie year) was in '04 when he was hobbled with a groin injury half the year and he still had 339-1335-17 and 53-441-1.

I don't think that we've seen LT's best year yet where everything clicked just right . The Chargers have another tough schedule this year so I doubt it will be a record breaking year but with him anything is possible. He's a model of consistency and the best back in the game. His nose for the end zone has increased each season and with Rivers at the helm I can definitely see Marty playing it conservative inside the redzone and handing to old reliable.

330-1600-20 and 60-500-2

Those are quite gaudy numbers, but yet I don't think it's a stretch.

 

[Pots]

350 carries, 1600 yards, 4.55 ypc, 18 TDs

60 Rec, 500 yards, 3 TDs

336 FPs, good for #2 RB.

 

[joffer]

that boy good. i wouldn't be surprised if they give Turner a few more series during the year to keep LT fresh.

320/1386/15 rushing

60/460/2 receving

 

[jurb26]

Tomlinson's downside is a career year for most rb's. His worst year (besides his rookie year) was in '04 when he was hobbled with a groin injury half the year and he still had 339-1335-17 and 53-441-1.

I don't think that we've seen LT's best year yet where everything clicked just right . The Chargers have another tough schedule this year so I doubt it will be a record breaking year but with him anything is possible. He's a model of consistency and the best back in the game. His nose for the end zone has increased each season and with Rivers at the helm I can definitely see Marty playing it conservative inside the redzone and handing to old reliable.

330-1600-20 and 60-500-2

Those are quite gaudy numbers, but yet I don't think it's a stretch.

What is amazing is those mumbers are the low end of what most project for LJ.

 

[Yitbos69]

LT has been the #3 ranked RB four years in a row.

The lack of starts at the NFL level by his new QB P. Rivers will help increase LT's numbers specifically in the passing game. Just like with Brees. Mr. Rivers will lean heavily on LT.

I have LT ranked as my #2 RB redraft

Rushing 350\1550\16 Rec. 75\510\2

 

[Banger]

Tomlinson's downside is a career year for most rb's.  His worst year (besides his rookie year) was in '04 when he was hobbled with a groin injury half the year and he still had 339-1335-17 and 53-441-1. 

I don't think that we've seen LT's best year yet where everything clicked just right .  The Chargers have another tough schedule this year so I doubt it will be a record breaking year but with him anything is possible.  He's a model of consistency and the best back in the game.  His nose for the end zone has increased each season and with Rivers at the helm I can definitely see Marty playing it conservative inside the redzone and handing to old reliable.

330-1600-20 and 60-500-2

Those are quite gaudy numbers, but yet I don't think it's a stretch.

the crazy thing is that his career AVERAGE over his 5 years is 340-1472-14.4 and 68.4-478.4-1.6. The only possible stretch IMO are his rushing TD #'s but over the past two years have been 17 and 18 so I don't think it's a stretch to guess 20 considering the Rivers factor.

 

[Banger]

Tomlinson's downside is a career year for most rb's.  His worst year (besides his rookie year) was in '04 when he was hobbled with a groin injury half the year and he still had 339-1335-17 and 53-441-1. 

I don't think that we've seen LT's best year yet where everything clicked just right .  The Chargers have another tough schedule this year so I doubt it will be a record breaking year but with him anything is possible.  He's a model of consistency and the best back in the game.  His nose for the end zone has increased each season and with Rivers at the helm I can definitely see Marty playing it conservative inside the redzone and handing to old reliable.

330-1600-20 and 60-500-2

Those are quite gaudy numbers, but yet I don't think it's a stretch.

What is amazing is those mumbers are the low end of what most project for LJ.

which I don't necessarily agree with but that is for a different thread....

 

[zamboni]

Tomlinson's downside is a career year for most rb's.  His worst year (besides his rookie year) was in '04 when he was hobbled with a groin injury half the year and he still had 339-1335-17 and 53-441-1. 

I don't think that we've seen LT's best year yet where everything clicked just right .  The Chargers have another tough schedule this year so I doubt it will be a record breaking year but with him anything is possible.  He's a model of consistency and the best back in the game.  His nose for the end zone has increased each season and with Rivers at the helm I can definitely see Marty playing it conservative inside the redzone and handing to old reliable.

330-1600-20 and 60-500-2

Those are quite gaudy numbers, but yet I don't think it's a stretch.

the crazy thing is that his career AVERAGE over his 5 years is 340-1472-14.4 and 68.4-478.4-1.6. The only possible stretch IMO are his rushing TD #'s but over the past two years have been 17 and 18 so I don't think it's a stretch to guess 20 considering the Rivers factor.

You're right - luckily I've had him all 5 of those years. Now that I see the averages, your numbers are quite doable. Brees threw a ton to Gates in the red zone - give a couple of those to LT and that 20 TD total is certainly within reason.

 

[The Jacket]

345 carries, 1518 yards (4.4 ypc), 17 TD.

58 receptions, 435 yards (7.5 ypc), 2 TD.

 

[Despyzer]

His career average for a season is 1472 rushing yards, 478 receiving yards, and almost 17 total TDs.

His best year was 2003 with 1645 rushing yards, 725 receiving yards, and 19 total TDs.

If he's completely healthy (which he hasn't been in a couple years), I could easily see 1650, 600, and 20.

1500, 500, and 18 seems like a pretty safe bet.

 

[Sinrman]

Though I'm a HUGE LT fan, and have been drafting him a good bit this year (and even traded for him in one league, and have him in a couple other leagues), I can see his stats going DOWN a bit this year. Not a lot, but down.

A few reasons --

1) Rivers will need time to get acclamated to the starting role. His learning curve will obviously be a lot shorter than most young QBs, since he's been on the sidleline the last two years. But very rarely can a QB just jump in there and immediately start producing great numbers. With that being said, I think the Chargers will turn to LT a good bit early on to try and take the pressure off of Rivers, and defenses will stack the line a bit more than usual on him. Sure, LT has beaten stacked lines for years now, but defenses are getting better and better, and he's showing more wear and tear.

2) I think to preserve LT a bit (check out the # of carries he's had over his career), and because of his phenomenal debut, Michael Turner will take some carries away this year. For that reason, and maybe to either groom Turner to be the eventual starter or to use as strong trade bait to another team next year (or the next), he will get a decent amount of PT.

3) I think they will try and use LT more in the passing game again (like in 2003, though not QUITE as much). This will keep defenses on their toes more, and will also help Rivers and his learning curve, as he will often times have LT to dump it to if he needs to.

So, with that being said... I predict LT going:

289 carries

1277 yards

13 TDs

66 receptions

522 yards

3 TDs

Nearly 1800 total yards and 16 TDs still ain't too shabby!

Even Barry Sanders himself says LT is the closest to resembling him on the field...

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

LT just needs to stay healthy all year. I don't view the loss of Brees as having much if any effect on LT. And although he rarely misses games, he plays nicked up quite a bit, so avoiding those nagging injuries will be big. He is heading into his "prime", hes 26 yrs old turning 27 so if the stars align he could go throught the roof.

331 Ru At

1522 Yards

19 TDs

68 Rec

490 Yards

3 TDs

Total

2012 Yards

22 TDs

PS: The Chargers are going to try to work both Turner and Sproles into the offense a tad more this season, at least that's what I have heard. Whether that reduces LTs touches much at tall will remain to be seen.

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I think LT's performance is going to depend more on the play of the OL more than the play of Rivers.

320 ru

1450 yds

18 TD

60 rec

380 yds

2 TD

 

[Banger]

I think LT's performance is going to depend more on the play of the OL more than the play of Rivers.

320 ru

1450 yds

18 TD

60 rec

380 yds

2 TD

how do you see their line shaping up this year?

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

I think LT's performance is going to depend more on the play of the OL more than the play of Rivers.

320 ru

1450 yds

18 TD

60 rec

380 yds

2 TD

how do you see their line shaping up this year?

I know you asked Boltzfan, but I'll chime in with my 2cents. The O-line was definitly hindered last year with the loss of Oben at Left Tackle. Oben has since had 2 surgeries and was walking in a boot this off season. There is definitly no guarantee he will be ready for TC or the Reg Season. Obens replacement (Leander Jordan) was terrible. That forced the interior of the line to help pick up the slack and they suffered becuase of it.This offseason the Bolts spent their 2nd Rd pick on Marcus McNeil (he is mammoth). He is currnetly running with the #2s in Mini Camp. I expect him to remain with the #2s if Oben is back soon. If not it is VERY likely the Bolts will have a rookie left tackle opening the season or shortly into it (Did I mention Jordan is bad). How McNeil plays is anyones guess right now as I have not seen him in pads.

 

[Musesboy]

Most people seem to agree that LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander will be the top three backs in 2006, but they may disagree on the order. While I consider that fairly unlikely (the top three have repeated only once in the last ten years), I do think that Tomlinson is the safest pick of the three. Larry Johnson will be asked to carry the full load for an entire season, unless Priest Holmes makes an unexpected return. There is also a new coaching regime to contend with. Alexander had a freak year and was playing for a new contract last year. Now that he has secured an extension, and with Darrell Jackson likely to start more than six games, I expect Alexander to drop back to his previous level of production.

The main doubt over Tomlinson is whether the Chargers can be as productive with Philip Rivers under center. Drew Brees has been very effective in the last two seasons while Rivers has never started an NFL game. Most QBs struggle in their first year as starter, although Rivers has at least had two years to learn from the sidelines so he won't be totally raw. As a guide, I looked at the performance of Drew Brees in his first season as the starter (after one year on the bench). Brees completed over 60% of his passes that year (his second year in the league), throwing for 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 INTs. That was an adequate performance. Tomlinson accumulated nearly 2200 total yards that year, and 15 TDs. He did it without much help from the receivers or TEs. Gates wasn't there and Curtis Conway led the receivers with 852/5.

Tomlinson is the only back to have made the top three in the last four seasons. He has achieved that with dubious line play, an immature QB, weaker receivers than average, and while carrying injuries on a couple of occasions.

I don't believe that Brees would have been allowed to depart if the coaching staff were not confident in the ability of Rivers. Gates is an excellent weapon and McCardell is still around. I don't doubt Tomlinson after what he has achieved. He is just 27 years of age, the same as Alexander was last year.

Tomlinson has recently stated that he wants to be more involved in the passing game. After 100 receptions in 2003, his numbers dropped to 53 and 51 over the last two seasons. It makes sense that he could give Rivers some easy options by lining up more in the passing game.

Tomlinson has never had less than 1500 combined yards in any year. He averages 16 TDs per year. He has only missed one game in five years. He should be in his prime. I like his chances, despite the QB doubts.

Prediction

360 carries 1550 yards 20 TDs

72 receptions 540 yards 2 TDs

 

[Wingnut]

Most people seem to agree that LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander will be the top three backs in 2006, but they may disagree on the order. While I consider that fairly unlikely (the top three have repeated only once in the last ten years), I do think that Tomlinson is the safest pick of the three. Larry Johnson will be asked to carry the full load for an entire season, unless Priest Holmes makes an unexpected return. There is also a new coaching regime to contend with. Alexander had a freak year and was playing for a new contract last year. Now that he has secured an extension, and with Darrell Jackson likely to start more than six games, I expect Alexander to drop back to his previous level of production.

The main doubt over Tomlinson is whether the Chargers can be as productive with Philip Rivers under center. Drew Brees has been very effective in the last two seasons while Rivers has never started an NFL game. Most QBs struggle in their first year as starter, although Rivers has at least had two years to learn from the sidelines so he won't be totally raw. As a guide, I looked at the performance of Drew Brees in his first season as the starter (after one year on the bench). Brees completed over 60% of his passes that year (his second year in the league), throwing for 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 INTs. That was an adequate performance. Tomlinson accumulated nearly 2200 total yards that year, and 15 TDs. He did it without much help from the receivers or TEs. Gates wasn't there and Curtis Conway led the receivers with 852/5.

Tomlinson is the only back to have made the top three in the last four seasons. He has achieved that with dubious line play, an immature QB, weaker receivers than average, and while carrying injuries on a couple of occasions.

I don't believe that Brees would have been allowed to depart if the coaching staff were not confident in the ability of Rivers. Gates is an excellent weapon and McCardell is still around. I don't doubt Tomlinson after what he has achieved. He is just 27 years of age, the same as Alexander was last year.

Tomlinson has recently stated that he wants to be more involved in the passing game. After 100 receptions in 2003, his numbers dropped to 53 and 51 over the last two seasons. It makes sense that he could give Rivers some easy options by lining up more in the passing game.

Tomlinson has never had less than 1500 combined yards in any year. He averages 16 TDs per year. He has only missed one game in five years. He should be in his prime. I like his chances, despite the QB doubts.

Prediction

360 carries 1550 yards 20 TDs

72 receptions 540 yards 2 TDs

Nice post.

 

[Musesboy]

Nice post.

Thanks

 

[BoltzNBrew]

I think LT's performance is going to depend more on the play of the OL more than the play of Rivers.

320 ru

1450 yds

18 TD

60 rec

380 yds

2 TD

how do you see their line shaping up this year?

I know you asked Boltzfan, but I'll chime in with my 2cents. The O-line was definitly hindered last year with the loss of Oben at Left Tackle. Oben has since had 2 surgeries and was walking in a boot this off season. There is definitly no guarantee he will be ready for TC or the Reg Season. Obens replacement (Leander Jordan) was terrible. That forced the interior of the line to help pick up the slack and they suffered becuase of it.This offseason the Bolts spent their 2nd Rd pick on Marcus McNeil (he is mammoth). He is currnetly running with the #2s in Mini Camp. I expect him to remain with the #2s if Oben is back soon. If not it is VERY likely the Bolts will have a rookie left tackle opening the season or shortly into it (Did I mention Jordan is bad). How McNeil plays is anyones guess right now as I have not seen him in pads.

In passing situations last year I noticed LT was blocking more than going out in patterns and got stuffed on the inside runs. The addition of McNeil will help in the long run but I don't see much improvement in the OL beyond that. Getting Oben back and staying healthy will definately help.

 

[CalBear]

In the Antonio Gates spotlight thread, I did some research on how first-year starters at QB affect TE production. (Generally, poorly). Since I'd already pulled out the QBs, I decided to look at how they affect RB production.

Before I get all the same objections that came up in that thread, I realize that list contains both rookies and older players getting a first chance to start. I think there is a difference between those two groups, but it's not large enough to warrant breaking up the study.



Final ranking for top RB with first-year starter at QB:

Top 10 (8):

2005 Barber (#4 overall)

2005 T.Jones (9)

2004 R.Johnson (7)

2003 Taylor (8)

2002 Tomlinson (3)

2001 A.Smith (9)

2001 Alexander (4)

2000 R.Smith (7)

11-20 (6):

2005 C.Williams (19)

2004 C.Brown (20)

2003 Faulk (16)

2002 Dunn (12)

2002 Martin (18)

2000 Dunn (15)

20+ (8):

2004 Lewis (25)

2004 E.Smith (23)

2003 Hambrick (25)

2003 Candidate (42)

2002 Wells (44)

2002 Stewart (22)

2001 Huntley (36)

2000 Autry (37) [Note, McNabb himself was the leading rusher on PHI]

Overall, it looks like having a first-year starter at QB had a small positive effect on this group. Jamal Lewis is the only back on this list who performed below what you might expect for him at that point of his career. Several of the backs on the list, notably Robert Smith, Antowain Smith, and Thomas Jones, had the best years of their careers while they had a first-year starter at QB. Coincidentally, Tomlinson himself is in the group from Brees' first year as a starter in 2002; LT finished as the #3 RB, with a career-high 372 carries for 1683 yards, and 79 receptions for 489 yards, with 15 total TDs. His TD totals have been higher each year since then, but 2002 stands as his best rushing year to date. (Aside: When eyeballing the stats, it looks like this group tends to have more yardage but fewer TDs in the year in question, relative to the rest of their careers).

So, I think you can expect more touches for LT in 2006, good production (LT's 4.5 ypc in 2002 is the second-best of his career so far), but perhaps fewer goal-line chances. He's still probably the most talented back in the league, and the Chargers' offense shouldn't be completely terrible, even with Rivers at QB.

350 carries, 1575 yards, 15 TD, 60 receptions, 450 yards, 2 TD. Good for RB#3.

 

[rzrback77]

Consistent producers equal fantasy success. I looked up "consistent" in my Daniel Webster and it had LT's picture. Over five seasons, he has averaged 340 carries and 1472 yards. In three of those five seasons, he had 339 carries. That's amazing! He's also added 69 receptions per year for 476 yards. He has never had less than 50 catches. His total TDs have gone up every year from 10 to 21.

I'd love to draw the third slot this season and would be ecstatic to grab Tomlinson there. I think that his carries and yardage will remain about the same, with a slight increase in receptions this year. I believe SD will likely run a little more, but Michael Turner will get the extra carries to keep LT fresh.

340 carries for 1450 yds (4.3 ypc) 18 TDs, with 55 catches for 420 yds and 4 TDs. He could throw for another TD as well.

I love to watch this guy play. I hope the Chargers have a great year and get on more often in prime time.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

355 carries, 1600 yds, 16 TDs, 55 rec, 475 yds, 3 TDs

He has succeded with no one around him and with talent around him. Rarely gets hurt and rarely fumbles. Is virtually a lock for 2000 total yards and 18 TD's. The epitome of a top 3 (this year) pick for most as he has less question marks surrounding him. Undisputed #1 RB on his team and probably 1A receiver. Should be the first pick in a redraft overall because of his stability and high floor. His ceiling may not be as high as LJ or SA, but not many sharks will go for the higher risk/higher reward with their first pick. Leagues can't be won here, but they sure can put you behind the 8 ball if you bust on your first pick.

 

[CalBear]

His ceiling may not be as high as LJ or SA, but not many sharks will go for the higher risk/higher reward with their first pick.

How is Alexander higher-risk than LT?

 

[lawyer]

Everyone here knows that LT is a stud. It's pretty much a crapshoot on who will be the #1 RB this year, with the contenders being Larry Johnson, Shaun Alexander, and, of course, LaDainian Tomlinson. I personally feel that LT will be the #2 Fantasy RB this year, behind Larry Johnson. Here's why:

Cons

1. Strength Of Schedule - According to FBG's "Ultimate Strength of Schedule" article, by Clayton Gray, San Diego faces the WORST schedule against run defenses this year. Obviously, this does not bode well for LT, but it doesn't plummet his stock either. For me, it just drops him from the #1 slot to the #2. I mean, come on, he's LaDainian Tomlinson.



2. Phillip Rivers - A new QB can be both a blessing and a disaster for RB's. In the disaster scenario, the QB can drag down the entire offense with an inability to complete third and longs, bad decision making, and just general bad play. If this is what happens with Phillip Rivers, we can expect some pretty poor play from the entire offense, and we can expect opposing defenses to stack 8 or maybe even 9 in the box to stop LT.

3. Injuries - It's never good to predict injuries, because they're so unpredictable, but it seems like the last couple of years LT has been a little hampered by some nagging injuries. However, I have full confidence that he'll get everything taken care of in the offseason and he'll be 100% ready to go at the beginning of the season.

Pros

1. He has SKILLS - Let's face it, LT has the best skill set of any running back in the league. He has superb field vision, outstanding quickness, ankle-breaking cuts and jukes, lightning fast speed, and the power to bowl through defenders.

2. Phillip Rivers - The blessing side of the new QB situation is that it could mean increased reliance on LT for stability in the offense and that means that he'll get more chances to break a game open. Also, Rivers might use LT as a safety valve more often than Brees did because he is less comfortable with the offense.

3. Durability - Although LT had nagging injuries through almost every game of the last two seasons, he only missed one of them. And that was the only game he's missed in his career. The guy is tough.

Projections:

Rush Attempts: 356

Rush yards: 1638

Rush TD's: 20

Receptions: 76

Reception Yards: 525

Reception TD's: 4

Pass Attempts: 3

Completions: 2

Pass Yards: 15

Pass TD's: 2

 

[Cool in the pocket]

His ceiling may not be as high as LJ or SA, but not many sharks will go for the higher risk/higher reward with their first pick.

How is Alexander higher-risk than LT?

LT has succeded when Brees was unknown, when the offensive line was suspect and when the receiving corps was suspect. He has also succeded when Brees developed and when Gates blew up, so Rivers as the new QB isn't too far off Brees when he was developing. SA just got his huge payday, coming off a record year while losing the best left tackle in the league plus he is not really a factor in the passing game . I just think SA's "negatives" outweigh LT's and LT represents the "safer" pick.

 

[Despyzer]

LT has succeded when Brees was unknown, when the offensive line was suspect and when the receiving corps was suspect. He has also succeded when Brees developed and when Gates blew up, so Rivers as the new QB isn't too far off Brees when he was developing. SA just got his huge payday, coming off a record year while losing the best left tackle in the league plus he is not really a factor in the passing game . I just think SA's "negatives" outweigh LT's and LT represents the "safer" pick.

Makes sense to me.

 

[Fodasme69]

LT has succeded when Brees was unknown, when the offensive line was suspect and when the receiving corps was suspect.  He has also succeded when Brees developed and when Gates blew up, so Rivers as the new QB isn't too far off Brees when he was developing.  SA just got his huge payday, coming off a record year while losing the best left tackle in the league plus he is not really a factor in the passing game .  I just think SA's "negatives" outweigh LT's and LT represents the "safer" pick.

Makes sense to me.

Except that SA Lost his starting left GUARD not tackle

 

[Despyzer]

Except that SA Lost his starting left GUARD not tackle

True, but his point is still valid.

 

[Fodasme69]

Except that SA Lost his starting left GUARD not tackle 

True, but his point is still valid.

I agree. I personally do not have Alex in my top 5:too many touches last 2 years

lost his left guard

superbowl hangover

got his fat payday

Madden curse

I may be in the minority but I am STAYING AWAY from Alex this year

 

[railman305]

I'm thinking LT's number will return to around what they where when brees first took over, maybe bumped up a bit cause of a better supporting cast on offense, I can see about 1670 rush and 17 TDs. 72 catches for 560-2 I think his catches will go up based mostly on what yur hearing out of SD about trying to reverse his downward trend of catches the past couple years and with brees first 2 seasons LT got 79 and 100 catches, so having 72 doesn't see that far out of reach for him, its only and increase of 1-2 more catches a game, you gotta figure that rivers will look to him and gates at a greater rate then brees did last year

LT and LJ SOS is almost the same so I kind of throw it when comparing them

 

[s1eepinglionhart]

By far, the greatest running back in the league, in my opinion. This man single handedly kept San Diego in games while Drew Brees and Antonio Gates were developing. He's the next great RB, a Marshall Faulk type rarity. And with San Diego's need to break in new starter Phillip Rivers (coupled with Rivers needing to develop a chemistry with anyone of his offensive skill players), and I think San Diego will emphasize LT and the running game. If Phillip Rivers can do enough with gates to keep the defenses from stacking up against LT, look for another monster year.

348 Rushes

1771 Yards

19 Rush TDs

66 Receptions

568 Yards

5 Receiving TDs

 

[mlball77]

I don't have a lot to say about LT2 other than he should be great once again... and I don't see any reason why he won't post numbers similar to those of the past few years.

Rush Yds: 1500

Rush TDs: 16

Recs: 50

Rec Yds: 375

Rec YDs: 2

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

360 carries 1550 yards 20 TDs

72 receptions 540 yards 2 TDs

Actual

348 carries 1815 yards 28 TDs

56 receptions 508 yards 3 TDs

2/3 20 passing yards 2 TDs

Strange as it may seem, I am very happy with this prediction. I doubt that many people seriously expected Tomlinson to go out and break the TD record. So why I am happy? Because I did enough to place Tomlinson number one in my rankings and I selected him over Johnson and Alexander at every opportunity. I didn't expect him to finish 100 points ahead of Larry Johnson, but I did expect him to finish first. Very few predictions saw him projected to score even 20 TDs.

Most people seem to agree that LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander will be the top three backs in 2006, but they may disagree on the order. While I consider that fairly unlikely (the top three have repeated only once in the last ten years), I do think that Tomlinson is the safest pick of the three. Larry Johnson will be asked to carry the full load for an entire season, unless Priest Holmes makes an unexpected return. There is also a new coaching regime to contend with. Alexander had a freak year and was playing for a new contract last year. Now that he has secured an extension, and with Darrell Jackson likely to start more than six games, I expect Alexander to drop back to his previous level of production.

The main doubt over Tomlinson is whether the Chargers can be as productive with Philip Rivers under center. Drew Brees has been very effective in the last two seasons while Rivers has never started an NFL game. Most QBs struggle in their first year as starter, although Rivers has at least had two years to learn from the sidelines so he won't be totally raw. As a guide, I looked at the performance of Drew Brees in his first season as the starter (after one year on the bench). Brees completed over 60% of his passes that year (his second year in the league), throwing for 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 INTs. That was an adequate performance. Tomlinson accumulated nearly 2200 total yards that year, and 15 TDs. He did it without much help from the receivers or TEs. Gates wasn't there and Curtis Conway led the receivers with 852/5.

Tomlinson is the only back to have made the top three in the last four seasons. He has achieved that with dubious line play, an immature QB, weaker receivers than average, and while carrying injuries on a couple of occasions.

I don't believe that Brees would have been allowed to depart if the coaching staff were not confident in the ability of Rivers. Gates is an excellent weapon and McCardell is still around. I don't doubt Tomlinson after what he has achieved. He is just 27 years of age, the same as Alexander was last year.

Tomlinson has recently stated that he wants to be more involved in the passing game. After 100 receptions in 2003, his numbers dropped to 53 and 51 over the last two seasons. It makes sense that he could give Rivers some easy options by lining up more in the passing game.

Tomlinson has never had less than 1500 combined yards in any year. He averages 16 TDs per year. He has only missed one game in five years. He should be in his prime. I like his chances, despite the QB doubts.

Prediction

360 carries 1550 yards 20 TDs

72 receptions 540 yards 2 TDs

 

[Banger]

Predicted

360 carries 1550 yards 20 TDs

72 receptions 540 yards 2 TDs

Actual

348 carries 1815 yards 28 TDs

56 receptions 508 yards 3 TDs

2/3 20 passing yards 2 TDs

Strange as it may seem, I am very happy with this prediction. I doubt that many people seriously expected Tomlinson to go out and break the TD record. So why I am happy? Because I did enough to place Tomlinson number one in my rankings and I selected him over Johnson and Alexander at every opportunity. I didn't expect him to finish 100 points ahead of Larry Johnson, but I did expect him to finish first. Very few predictions saw him projected to score even 20 TDs.

Most people seem to agree that LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Shaun Alexander will be the top three backs in 2006, but they may disagree on the order. While I consider that fairly unlikely (the top three have repeated only once in the last ten years), I do think that Tomlinson is the safest pick of the three. Larry Johnson will be asked to carry the full load for an entire season, unless Priest Holmes makes an unexpected return. There is also a new coaching regime to contend with. Alexander had a freak year and was playing for a new contract last year. Now that he has secured an extension, and with Darrell Jackson likely to start more than six games, I expect Alexander to drop back to his previous level of production.

The main doubt over Tomlinson is whether the Chargers can be as productive with Philip Rivers under center. Drew Brees has been very effective in the last two seasons while Rivers has never started an NFL game. Most QBs struggle in their first year as starter, although Rivers has at least had two years to learn from the sidelines so he won't be totally raw. As a guide, I looked at the performance of Drew Brees in his first season as the starter (after one year on the bench). Brees completed over 60% of his passes that year (his second year in the league), throwing for 3284 yards, 17 TDs and 16 INTs. That was an adequate performance. Tomlinson accumulated nearly 2200 total yards that year, and 15 TDs. He did it without much help from the receivers or TEs. Gates wasn't there and Curtis Conway led the receivers with 852/5.

Tomlinson is the only back to have made the top three in the last four seasons. He has achieved that with dubious line play, an immature QB, weaker receivers than average, and while carrying injuries on a couple of occasions.

I don't believe that Brees would have been allowed to depart if the coaching staff were not confident in the ability of Rivers. Gates is an excellent weapon and McCardell is still around. I don't doubt Tomlinson after what he has achieved. He is just 27 years of age, the same as Alexander was last year.

Tomlinson has recently stated that he wants to be more involved in the passing game. After 100 receptions in 2003, his numbers dropped to 53 and 51 over the last two seasons. It makes sense that he could give Rivers some easy options by lining up more in the passing game.

Tomlinson has never had less than 1500 combined yards in any year. He averages 16 TDs per year. He has only missed one game in five years. He should be in his prime. I like his chances, despite the QB doubts.

Prediction

360 carries 1550 yards 20 TDs

72 receptions 540 yards 2 TDs

Always enjoy your posts Muse. I predicted - 330-1600-20 and 60-500-2 and was on the high side of most.

I definitely liked him #1 due to the low risk factor. I don't think anyone could have predicted the line play, specifically McNeill, and that was the big difference IMO.

 

[Musesboy]

Always enjoy your posts Muse. I predicted - 330-1600-20 and 60-500-2 and was on the high side of most. I definitely liked him #1 due to the low risk factor. I don't think anyone could have predicted the line play, specifically McNeill, and that was the big difference IMO.

Thanks I think the play of Rivers was a contributing factor towards Tomlinson's huge year. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next two years. The Chargers are a great team to watch and their defense makes them a genuine Super Bowl contender, so Tomlinson might have even more of a contribution to make before the season is over.

 

[Banger]

Always enjoy your posts Muse. I predicted - 330-1600-20 and 60-500-2 and was on the high side of most. I definitely liked him #1 due to the low risk factor. I don't think anyone could have predicted the line play, specifically McNeill, and that was the big difference IMO.

Thanks I think the play of Rivers was a contributing factor towards Tomlinson's huge year. It will be interesting to see what happens over the next two years. The Chargers are a great team to watch and their defense makes them a genuine Super Bowl contender, so Tomlinson might have even more of a contribution to make before the season is over.

Their line is young and signed for several years (with the exception of Diehlman which should happen after the season), defense (major pieces) are signed, Gates/Rivers are signed. He definitely has the possibility of getting mid/high 20 td's next year.