Player Spotlight: LaDainian Tomlinson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: LaDainian Tomlinson, RB, San Diego Chargers

Player Page Link: LaDainian Tomlinson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[pantherclub]

This is the year LT starts to trend down. After 2 knock out years his body and production will begin to pay the price. Just log each of the last 6 games for the past 2 years and you will see his body wears down from overuse. I will bet anyone here that he doesnt finish in the top spot this year. I think Michael Turner will start to creep more and more into the game to keep LT fresh for the end of the year.

i see him as:

320 carries 1300yds 14 td's

45 rec 400 yds 1 td's

 

[Follows Closely]

...Just log each of the last 6 games for the past 2 years...

The Charges have had home field in the bag the past few years, LT has not needed to be on the field as much. I agree that he wil decline form last year (of course) but I expect another 3 solid years.

 

[Gottabesweet]

331 carries - 1479 yards - 16 TD's

51 grabs, 510 - 2tds

 

[Sultans]

Typically after such a Huge Year, you have to expect some regression. There probably will be some sort of drop off, but I can't see that much. Norv Turner has the most RB friendly offensive theme by far. Look at Lamont and Gore the last two years. Both became 1st round picks the following years. Jordan last year and Gore this year.

LT should dominate once again. He is too good, the team is too good, Norv makes him better? Is that possible.

350 Carries 1750 Yards 20 TD's

60 Catches 600 Yards 2 TD's

 

[Banger]

This is the year LT starts to trend down. After 2 knock out years his body and production will begin to pay the price. Just log each of the last 6 games for the past 2 years and you will see his body wears down from overuse. I will bet anyone here that he doesnt finish in the top spot this year. I think Michael Turner will start to creep more and more into the game to keep LT fresh for the end of the year.i see him as: 320 carries 1300yds 14 td's45 rec 400 yds 1 td's

yikes, you aren't talking about a trend down you're looking for the wheels to fall off. You're projecting the worst year since his rookie year even though he's on the best offense with the best line since he's been on the team. Even when LT was "tired" last year over the last 6 weeks his stats extrapolate to 2226 yards and 24 tds which still would have been the #1 overall rb last year. He then went out and had an awesome game vs the Pats (one of the best defenses in league) in the playoffs to the tune of 187 and 2 tds. You can't get a better back in a better position than LT, start with 2000 yards/20 tds and go from there....

 

[JimboJim]

330 carries

1600 yds rushing

18 TDs rushing

55 receptions

500 yds recieving

2 TDs recieving

1 TD passing

I see no reason to expect a drop-off from a "normal" LT season. ~2000 total yards and 20 TDs should be expected.

 

[Gr00vus]

There's LaDainian and then there's everybody else. He's been a lock for top 3 the last 5 years, and nobody has a better shot at #1 than him.

 

[Gottabesweet]

How many balls did he catch when Sproles was not hurt two years ago?

Sproles sometimes comes in on third downs.

 

[Banger]

How many balls did he catch when Sproles was not hurt two years ago?Sproles sometimes comes in on third downs.

Sproles shouldn't even be a consideration IMO. He may not even make the team if he can't win a return job on special teams. Sproles had 3 receptions in '05 compared to 3 for Turner and 51 to LT. The only way Sproles will get on the field is if LT gets hurt and he may give Turner a breater, other than that he's worthless.

 

[einstein2u]

happy to #1 pick this year.

 

[Macdaddy_2004]

#1 back in football

320/1600/20

60/500/3

2 passing TD's

 

[David Yudkin]

Not even counting his passing TD, LT's TD total has actually GONE UP each year:

10, 15, 17, 18, 20, 31

If that trend continues, the LT owner in each league will easily have a team at the top of the league

 

[Verbal Kint]

Typically after such a Huge Year, you have to expect some regression. There probably will be some sort of drop off, but I can't see that much. Norv Turner has the most RB friendly offensive theme by far. Look at Lamont and Gore the last two years. Both became 1st round picks the following years. Jordan last year and Gore this year.LT should dominate once again. He is too good, the team is too good, Norv makes him better? Is that possible. 350 Carries 1750 Yards 20 TD's60 Catches 600 Yards 2 TD's

Will he match last year's gaudy numbers? Probably not. Will he still be the #1 FFL stud? Absolutely. Over the last 2 years LT has ranked third in rushes, rushing yards and total touches. Over that time, he has averaged 344 rushes & 397 total touches. While on the high side, its not high enough to cause concern over the wheels coming off. He is still relatively young at 28, and seems to have a knack for avoiding the big hit. LT has gotten nicked up before, but has shown great toughness in playing through those minor injuries and has shown good durability. The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right. 335/1675/2250/400/2

 

[David Yudkin]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

The bolded part is what got me. Is SD with an entire new coaching staff still in a position to be considered as a team that could be wrapping up homefield with several games to play?

 

[Jason Wood]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

The bolded part is what got me. Is SD with an entire new coaching staff still in a position to be considered as a team that could be wrapping up homefield with several games to play?

This is a great point David...the more I think on it, the more I wonder how a team with so many changes/question marks could be considered such a heavy favorite.They didn't just replace their head coach, they replaced a huge part of their coaching staff and did so in an unceremonious and untimely way. Add to that the wholesale changes on defense, and the Chargers aren't the sure thing they seem to be. I still think they will/should win their division, but things could easily not go according to plan (i.e., meaning 13-3, 14-2 and wrapping up homefield early).

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I feel compelled to remind everyone that LT played a significant part of 2004 (groin) and 2005 (rib) hurt - keep this in mind when projecting him. It's asking a lot for LT to stay anywhere near last year's level, but I believe that is closer to the "real" LT than the numbers he put up in 04 and 05.

 

[Banger]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

This really isn't much of a concern to me since there are so many good teams in the AFC and the chances that the Chargers run away with the #1 seed with 3 weeks to play is unlikely with teams like Indy, NE, Ravens, etc. Look at last year, the Chargers had a fantastic year and they were basically fighting for their seeding until the very last weekend even though their division was wrapped up for weeks.

 

[David Yudkin]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

The bolded part is what got me. Is SD with an entire new coaching staff still in a position to be considered as a team that could be wrapping up homefield with several games to play?

This is a great point David...the more I think on it, the more I wonder how a team with so many changes/question marks could be considered such a heavy favorite.They didn't just replace their head coach, they replaced a huge part of their coaching staff and did so in an unceremonious and untimely way. Add to that the wholesale changes on defense, and the Chargers aren't the sure thing they seem to be. I still think they will/should win their division, but things could easily not go according to plan (i.e., meaning 13-3, 14-2 and wrapping up homefield early).

The other thing that potentially concerns me about SD is that last year they seemed blessed with good health. Did they have any injuries to any key players? I'm not suggesting or predicting injuries to anyone, but one has to wonder if they could go another year without any health concerns.

 

[Verbal Kint]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

This really isn't much of a concern to me since there are so many good teams in the AFC and the chances that the Chargers run away with the #1 seed with 3 weeks to play is unlikely with teams like Indy, NE, Ravens, etc. Look at last year, the Chargers had a fantastic year and they were basically fighting for their seeding until the very last weekend even though their division was wrapped up for weeks.

Agreed. All I was trying to say was I am less concerned with LT's wheels falling off than SD locking up.

 

[switz]

This is the year LT starts to trend down. After 2 knock out years his body and production will begin to pay the price. Just log each of the last 6 games for the past 2 years and you will see his body wears down from overuse. I will bet anyone here that he doesnt finish in the top spot this year. I think Michael Turner will start to creep more and more into the game to keep LT fresh for the end of the year.i see him as: 320 carries 1300yds 14 td's45 rec 400 yds 1 td's

... says a bitter fantasy owner who drafted Michael Bennett instead in his dynasty league

 

[pantherclub]

I would draft him no matter what, all I am saying is the wear and tear will probably start to show this season. Plus I think folks are over looking Michael Turner, I have a feeling Norv is going to use him a bit to keep LT healthy and fresh. Why wouldnt he? LT has touched the ball a lot in the past 7 years.

 

[Banger]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

The bolded part is what got me. Is SD with an entire new coaching staff still in a position to be considered as a team that could be wrapping up homefield with several games to play?

This is a great point David...the more I think on it, the more I wonder how a team with so many changes/question marks could be considered such a heavy favorite.They didn't just replace their head coach, they replaced a huge part of their coaching staff and did so in an unceremonious and untimely way. Add to that the wholesale changes on defense, and the Chargers aren't the sure thing they seem to be. I still think they will/should win their division, but things could easily not go according to plan (i.e., meaning 13-3, 14-2 and wrapping up homefield early).

The other thing that potentially concerns me about SD is that last year they seemed blessed with good health. Did they have any injuries to any key players? I'm not suggesting or predicting injuries to anyone, but one has to wonder if they could go another year without any health concerns.

They were really banged up on defense for a while and Merriman had a 4 game suspension to boot. Olshansky, Castillo, Phillips all missed time as did others. Also their wr's were banged up for a good stretch there too but since they don't rely on them like other teams do it went relatively unnoticed. Actually it allowed VJax to emerge. SD's is a very deep club.

 

[zamboni]

I think people are overlooking the motivation factor for LT to chase Emmitt's rushing record. His workload should remain abundant and the production should follow suit.

 

[shadyridr]

Not much more to say. He is a stud and will be the #1 RB taken in just about every draft. Even if he slips a little he wont be any worse than #3 RB.

320 att, 1600 yds, 25 tds, 50 rec, 500 yds, 3 tds

 

[phthalatemagic]

Even if you do not think he will score the most points this season, it's still justifiable to draft him first because of his stability. He's like Gates or Manning in that his floor is so high, it may not matter what his ceiling is.

2200 total yards

60 receptions

18 TDs

 

[zamboni]

I think people are overlooking the motivation factor for LT to chase Emmitt's rushing record. His workload should remain abundant and the production should follow suit.

Just to add, it will obviously be difficult to do, but I think this could be the year that LT could make a legitimate run at Dickerson's single season record. With Norv, the carries should at least definitely be there.

 

[AnonymousBob]

Not even counting his passing TD, LT's TD total has actually GONE UP each year:10, 15, 17, 18, 20, 31If that trend continues, the LT owner in each league will easily have a team at the top of the league

31 doesn't scream outlier? As you mentioned a few posts later, the new coaches may very well struggle. That won't impact LT's numbers in a negative fashion?

 

[David Yudkin]

Not even counting his passing TD, LT's TD total has actually GONE UP each year:10, 15, 17, 18, 20, 31If that trend continues, the LT owner in each league will easily have a team at the top of the league

31 doesn't scream outlier? As you mentioned a few posts later, the new coaches may very well struggle. That won't impact LT's numbers in a negative fashion?

I was not campaigning that LT will again do better . . . only that if he did it would be a phenomenal accomplishment.

 

[Jayrod]

I think he regresses back closer to 2005 numbers. Still great:

340 carries for 1,500 yds; 50 catches for 400 yds and 21 total TD's.

The thing is, before last year, his TD high for a season was 20. He's lost the coaching staff from last year that got him to 31 TD's and while Norv is supposed to be some great offensive mind, he is still a new coach with a different style. Even if everything clicks, to predict more than 25 TD's is crazy bold. Record setting seasons are records for a reason: it is very, very hard to do.

Anyone remember Peyton's magical 49 TD season? He came back with pretty much the same team and put up "only" 28 TD's. Last year he picked it up with 31...but that's still 18 short of his record.

I'm just saying be careful about predicting back-to-back astronomical seasons for any one player. It just doesn't happen.

 

[phthalatemagic]

Not even counting his passing TD, LT's TD total has actually GONE UP each year:10, 15, 17, 18, 20, 31If that trend continues, the LT owner in each league will easily have a team at the top of the league

31 doesn't scream outlier?

31 is definately an outlier, but we aren't allowed to talk about that here.

 

[Gr00vus]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

The bolded part is what got me. Is SD with an entire new coaching staff still in a position to be considered as a team that could be wrapping up homefield with several games to play?

This is a great point David...the more I think on it, the more I wonder how a team with so many changes/question marks could be considered such a heavy favorite.They didn't just replace their head coach, they replaced a huge part of their coaching staff and did so in an unceremonious and untimely way. Add to that the wholesale changes on defense, and the Chargers aren't the sure thing they seem to be. I still think they will/should win their division, but things could easily not go according to plan (i.e., meaning 13-3, 14-2 and wrapping up homefield early).

The other thing that potentially concerns me about SD is that last year they seemed blessed with good health. Did they have any injuries to any key players? I'm not suggesting or predicting injuries to anyone, but one has to wonder if they could go another year without any health concerns.

They were really banged up on defense for a while and Merriman had a 4 game suspension to boot. Olshansky, Castillo, Phillips all missed time as did others. Also their wr's were banged up for a good stretch there too but since they don't rely on them like other teams do it went relatively unnoticed. Actually it allowed VJax to emerge. SD's is a very deep club.

McNeil also played with a broken hand for the first 1/4 of the season, Hartwick missed some time, they lost Foley for the season, they basically lost Jue for the season, Hart and McCree had nagging injuries throughout, Oben was hurt most of the season, Rivers messed up his foot pretty bad at the end of the year, Merriman injured himself during the playoff loss to the extent he probably wouldn't have been able to play the following week. There's more, but they got hit pretty damn hard with injuries last year. The FF focus players (Tomlinson and Gates) did have virtually injury free seasons.

 

[Gr00vus]

The biggest concern to me is whether he will sit during fantasy playoffs if SD locks up home field early this year, especially with the emergence of Turner as a bona fide RB in his own right.

This really isn't much of a concern to me since there are so many good teams in the AFC and the chances that the Chargers run away with the #1 seed with 3 weeks to play is unlikely with teams like Indy, NE, Ravens, etc. Look at last year, the Chargers had a fantastic year and they were basically fighting for their seeding until the very last weekend even though their division was wrapped up for weeks.

Also I think Denver is going to be right there with them in the Division for pretty much the whole season - I think taking week 16 or 17 off isn't going to be an option for the Chargers.

 

[craxie]

This is the year LT starts to trend down. After 2 knock out years his body and production will begin to pay the price.

i made some charts of LT's production vs historical greatsyards from scrimmage

rush/receive tds

1. he's doing incredibly well after 6 years

2. i see no a priori reason to expect a decline in production for at least another 3-4 years

 

[rzrback77]

Just so you know out front, I am a start-up dynsaty owner of LT and I am looking forward to enjoying watching him play over the next several years. I think that he is poised for another year very similar to last season. He has an outstanding offense, a great O-Line, and he will continue to be the focal point of the Charger offense. He is so graceful and smooth, reminds me of an antelope at times. He is an unbelievable receiver. He always seems to sneak out of bounds AFTER gaining the needed yardage. I think that he has a decent chance at continuing his greatness for three or four years and could break the all-time NFL RB records.

Tomlinson 340 carries 1632 yards (4.8 ypc) and 24 TDs and 55 catches for 440 yards (8.0 ypc) and 2 TDs