Player Spotlight: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Lamar Miller Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm still on the fence about this guy. I know a lot of people are really excited about this guy and other people think he's way overhyped. Here's my take:

Some people claim he was the #2 back in the 2012 rookie class but he slid to the fourth due to shoulder surgery. That seems a bit shaky to me. If he's that talented then a non-leg injury shouldn't cause that kind of slide. But it wouldn't be the first time a 4th round or later pick has been productive. I just take those kinds of comments with a grain of salt.

People are excited that he's being talked about by the coaches as "the starter" and I have no doubts that he'll get first crack at the job, but there have been plenty of guys who have started the season as the guy and have been yanked pretty quickly. Some may recall Shonn Greene had some good regular season games and then two very strong playoff performances his rookie year and started week 1 of his second season only to fumble and lose the job to LT as soon as week 2.

I use that example only to illustrate just how flimsy of a grasp a starter can have on the job. Obviously, that's not the case for guys like Trent Richardson who are drafted to be the guy and will get every chance to be the starter. This case looks much more like a team with a lot of needs, who saw a weak rookie RB class, and decided to play the hand they had. I don't sense that they feel very pot committed to Miller. He's simply the first card they're going to play. If he fumbles or gives up some sacks then maybe a very hungry Daniel Thomas gets a shot or their rookie or they just muddle through the year with a RBBC. Philbin comes from Green Bay where they were content to let the running game take a back seat to the passing game. If Tannehill has made strides this year and the running game is lackluster, then maybe that's the route they go.

It's also worth mentioning that starter doesn't mean bellcow. Ryan Mathews was the unquestioned starter after he was drafted, yet he lost a lot of touches to the unspectacular Tolbert. Miller/Thomas would make for a poor man's Mathews/Tolbert quite nicely. Given Thomas' larger role than Miller last year signifies that they may find the former second round pick worth utilizing in certain situations.

It sounds like I'm down on him, but I'm just trying to view it realistically. I actually wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he is a solid performer this year. But I was the same way with James Starks in the past. Huge range between the upside and the downside. Anyway, if he can solidify himself as the starter then he's in a great spot. A rebuilding team already with some upward momentum with a possible franchise QB and a big improvement to the receiving corps. Moving Martin to LT could be quite shaky, but it could work out. Yet another iffy factor to this situation that could go either way. But for Miller's long term prospects if this season goes according to plan, this appears to be a team that will be able to afford investing picks on the offensive line as they should theoretically be set at QB, WR, TE, and RB for a few years.

2013 projection guess:

200 carries x 4.4 ypc = 880 yds 4 TDs, 30 rec x 8 ypr = 240 yds 1 TD

 

[TheDirtyWord]

What I remember about Lamar Miller during last years NFL Draft season was that nobody thought that Miller would drop below the 2nd round and a lot of folks in the lead up to the draft had him as a 1st round talent. And then on draft weekend, he fell to Round 4. We all know that RB is being criminally de-emphasized in todays NFL what with RBBC’s popping up all over the place and scrutiny on RB longevity now starting before they ever play an NFL down. I play with a lot of guys who are big NFL fans, but are not necessarily big NFL Draft fans. So while they’ll see that Miller is poised to become the lead back in Miami, they may not recognize his pedigree which I believe is underrated.

While I’m not sure if Jeff Ireland’s free agent bonanza off-season will provide a different result for the Dolphins in terms of team success, this is not a team devoid of talent. On defense, the Dolphins were able to hold opponents to a shade under 20 PPG in 2012. For a rushing attack, that’s fairly decent news in that you expect you should not be routed out of too many games.

Looking at the roster, other RB’s that might compete for playing time include Daniel Thomas and Mike Gillislee. The recent blurb about Jonas Gray sounds like June news, but September transaction fodder. With Bush off to Detroit, there are 262 touches up for grabs and if Miller can show that he can handle true RB1 responsibilities (which include being able to adequately pass protect), he may be in line to grab a majority of them. With Mike Sherman and Joe Philbin calling the shots on offense, I do think there is an opportunity for Miller to truly seize the bellcow role in the rushing attack. Ahman Green had his best years under Sherman and I think he’s (Sherman) old school enough to be the type of OC to ride the hot hand once he finds one.

Overall, I don’t think he’ll ascend to RB1 territory yet where you can count on consistent production from him week in/week out. But come draft days in August, I’d be surprised if this guy was making it to Round 4 like he is today. More than likely, you’ll have to spend a 3rd rounder to get him which won’t necessarily equate to value, but should also provide you an opportunity to recoup his draft position with some RB1 upside surprise.

Prediction: 261 Rushes 1213 Rushing Yards 7 TD’s; 27 Receptions 187 Receiving Yards 0 TD’s.

 

[Ray Finkle]

225/1000/6 rushing

30/210/1 receiving

 

[jacobo_moses]

I'm still on the fence about this guy. I know a lot of people are really excited about this guy and other people think he's way overhyped. Here's my take:

Some people claim he was the #2 back in the 2012 rookie class but he slid to the fourth due to shoulder surgery. That seems a bit shaky to me. If he's that talented then a non-leg injury shouldn't cause that kind of slide. But it wouldn't be the first time a 4th round or later pick has been productive. I just take those kinds of comments with a grain of salt.

People are excited that he's being talked about by the coaches as "the starter" and I have no doubts that he'll get first crack at the job, but there have been plenty of guys who have started the season as the guy and have been yanked pretty quickly. Some may recall Shonn Greene had some good regular season games and then two very strong playoff performances his rookie year and started week 1 of his second season only to fumble and lose the job to LT as soon as week 2.

I use that example only to illustrate just how flimsy of a grasp a starter can have on the job. Obviously, that's not the case for guys like Trent Richardson who are drafted to be the guy and will get every chance to be the starter. This case looks much more like a team with a lot of needs, who saw a weak rookie RB class, and decided to play the hand they had. I don't sense that they feel very pot committed to Miller. He's simply the first card they're going to play. If he fumbles or gives up some sacks then maybe a very hungry Daniel Thomas gets a shot or their rookie or they just muddle through the year with a RBBC. Philbin comes from Green Bay where they were content to let the running game take a back seat to the passing game. If Tannehill has made strides this year and the running game is lackluster, then maybe that's the route they go.

It's also worth mentioning that starter doesn't mean bellcow. Ryan Mathews was the unquestioned starter after he was drafted, yet he lost a lot of touches to the unspectacular Tolbert. Miller/Thomas would make for a poor man's Mathews/Tolbert quite nicely. Given Thomas' larger role than Miller last year signifies that they may find the former second round pick worth utilizing in certain situations.

It sounds like I'm down on him, but I'm just trying to view it realistically. I actually wouldn't be the least bit surprised if he is a solid performer this year. But I was the same way with James Starks in the past. Huge range between the upside and the downside. Anyway, if he can solidify himself as the starter then he's in a great spot. A rebuilding team already with some upward momentum with a possible franchise QB and a big improvement to the receiving corps. Moving Martin to LT could be quite shaky, but it could work out. Yet another iffy factor to this situation that could go either way. But for Miller's long term prospects if this season goes according to plan, this appears to be a team that will be able to afford investing picks on the offensive line as they should theoretically be set at QB, WR, TE, and RB for a few years.

2013 projection guess:

200 carries x 4.4 ypc = 880 yds 4 TDs, 30 rec x 8 ypr = 240 yds 1 TD

What people are overlooking on this guy is a few things. 1st) They let Reggie Bush walk (with only Daniel Thomas there) also. 2nd) They didn't draft an RB this year until the 5th Rnd. 3rd) They didn't bring in any big names like Ahmad Bradshaw or Steven Jackson.

Now granted there is some pass protection question marks with Lamar Miller but they drafted Gillislee RB to help there if Miller doesn't do a good enough job. I don't want to go nuts with this guy. But lets be real here. IF we read all these signs and look at the tea leaves.

Barring injury and he improves on his pass protection to justify being in there for the majority of the snaps. He is a high RB2 possibly RB1 Low End if all the chips go his way.

I could see 1285 Rushing Yards (210 Rec Yards) and 11 Total TD's. Miami wouldn't have done the above things I pointed out if they didn't have a lot of faith in him. Bottom line.

 

[meyerj31]

What people are overlooking on this guy is a few things. 1st) They let Reggie Bush walk (with only Daniel Thomas there) also. 2nd) They didn't draft an RB this year until the 5th Rnd. 3rd) They didn't bring in any big names like Ahmad Bradshaw or Steven Jackson.

Just because a team doesn't do things doesn't make the guy that's left any more valuable or mean he's "the guy." Using your points against you ... the Packers: 1) let Ryan Grant walk a couple years ago2) Didn't address RB in the draft until this year3) Didn't add any big names in free agency until Starks was injured in training camp and they gave a minimum contract to Benson, which really shouldn't count for anything. A big free agent acquisition would have been landing Lynch three years ago. None of this makes the guys that are left on the roster a solid starter or a solid fantasty contributor. Do you get it? Just because Lamar Miller is the top guy on the roster right now and they didn't make any of those moves doesn't mean anything. Starks was the top guy because of all the reasons noted above and he failed miserably. FF Ninja's post was right on the money. Nice job. I will be shocked if he surpasses 1,000 rushing yards or has more than 8 TDs this season. That said, he's going at about the RB24 mark, which is a decent spot for him. I wouldn't take him as my RB2, but he's a RB3 with RB2 upside. If anyone thinks he has upside beyond around RB18 then you are delusional.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Comparing the Packers org to the Dolphins is a flawed comparison. They are not run the same way. And of course GB did those things when you have freaking Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Now granted I like Tannehill. But he is not ARod in anyway. That argument doesn't work. Sorry Man it just doesn't.

 

[meyerj31]

Comparing the Packers org to the Dolphins is a flawed comparison. They are not run the same way. And of course GB did those things when you have freaking Aaron Rodgers at the helm. Now granted I like Tannehill. But he is not ARod in anyway. That argument doesn't work. Sorry Man it just doesn't.

Ok great comeback.

I don't think you really understand what I wrote so go back and re-read it a few times.

 

[jacobo_moses]

Nevermind Meyerj31. No point in me trying to explain myself to you. Meaning as a Packers fan I know how the Packers operate and comparing that to what MIA did is not the same at all.

 

[gianmarco]

What people are overlooking on this guy is a few things. 1st) They let Reggie Bush walk (with only Daniel Thomas there) also. 2nd) They didn't draft an RB this year until the 5th Rnd. 3rd) They didn't bring in any big names like Ahmad Bradshaw or Steven Jackson.

Just because a team doesn't do things doesn't make the guy that's left any more valuable or mean he's "the guy." Using your points against you ... the Packers: 1) let Ryan Grant walk a couple years ago2) Didn't address RB in the draft until this year3) Didn't add any big names in free agency until Starks was injured in training camp and they gave a minimum contract to Benson, which really shouldn't count for anything. A big free agent acquisition would have been landing Lynch three years ago. None of this makes the guys that are left on the roster a solid starter or a solid fantasty contributor. Do you get it? Just because Lamar Miller is the top guy on the roster right now and they didn't make any of those moves doesn't mean anything. Starks was the top guy because of all the reasons noted above and he failed miserably. FF Ninja's post was right on the money. Nice job. I will be shocked if he surpasses 1,000 rushing yards or has more than 8 TDs this season. That said, he's going at about the RB24 mark, which is a decent spot for him. I wouldn't take him as my RB2, but he's a RB3 with RB2 upside. If anyone thinks he has upside beyond around RB18 then you are delusional.

I guess I'm delusional.

 

[floods]

Biggest question with Miller is going to be his workload. If the size of the pie stays the same in 2013 there will be ~440 carries to be split (around 385 for the RBs). Best case scenario in my eyes is that he's a bump up from Bush and gets around 250 carries @4.5ypc for over 1100 yards and 8 TDs. Worst case is that it becomes a time share with Gillislee and Miller goes south of the 227 carries Bush had.

Great dynasty commodity to buy at the right price, but a real gamble this year in redraft. Would love him as a RB3.

 

[JackReacher]

I'm a huge fan of Miller's and have posted as much in other threads. Those who think Miller's a great RB3 with RB2 upside (redraft) might as well forget drafting him unless they plan on going RB RB RB. Latest I see him lasting is top of 4th.

 

[jacobo_moses]

From Matt Waldman

Evan Silva termed Miami running back Lamar Miller “the early preseason-buzz MVP.” Understandable. He’s a back whose talents reminded me of two of his University of Miami predecessors: Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James. The 2012 rookie is earning a lot ofencouraging PR from his organization. With Reggie Bush leaving and third-year back Daniel Thomas not flashing the promise that Miller demonstrated in limited time, there’s good reason for Miller to be coined an emerging talent in 2013.

Miller was my No.3 back in the 2012 Rookie Scouting Portfolio behind Trent Richardson and Doug Martin. Here’s my brief summary of Miller from these rankings:

Lamar Miller is a potential Pro Bowl back. He’s at the sweet spot in terms of height, weight, speed, and acceleration. He runs with patience, balance, and he protects the football. He understands how to stay close to his blocks until an opening develops and like Clinton Portis and Edgerrin James before him, he knows how to shorten his steps in traffic until he finds a cutback lane or alternate crease when the primary hole doesn’t come open. He runs with good balance and power between the tackles. He can run through contact and he has good enough footwork to prevent defenders from getting angles on him. He bends runs with good speed and he has shown some skill to pick and slide towards creases or press a crease and cut back. He keeps his legs moving after contact and his pad level is consistently low enough that he bounces off hits and maximizes his output on carries. He knows how to minimize his surface area in the hole and still get down hill fast.

Miller is fast and his burst is Pro Bowl-caliber in the respect that when given a hole he can accelerate past all three levels of a defense and turn a 10-yard gain into a 40-yard touchdown. There is little doubt that Miller has a ton of physical talent, but there are plays where he seems to go out of bounds too willingly where he could have fought to stay in the field of play and gain more yardage. These plays occurred when time wasn’t a factor for the drive. Miller catches the ball as well as any back in this class. He uses his hands to snare passes and he repeatedly demonstrated the ability to catch the errant throw with good body control and concentration. I saw him make an acrobatic catch that was over 25 yards from release point to reception that many college WR’s can’t make.

Miller’s effort as a blocker is not good enough. He will deliver a punch and he has skill at getting the correct angle to make a block. However, he doesn’t sustain the contact and work hard enough to maintain that position. Miller diagnoses blocks effectively, but he has to do better with his cut blocking. He drops his head too early As a run blocker, he seems more worried about getting hit from behind or hurt in the act of blocking that helping his teammates make plays.

I can see the Clinton Portis comparisons because Miller has game-breaking speed, explosive lateral agility, and enough down hill power and balance to generate big plays in multiple ways. The difference is that Miller makes running the football look easier than Portis did in college and I think it might be part of the perception that his effort isn’t always there when in fact, he’s just more graceful than people realize. Purely on ability, he could start for an NFL team today. The key will be how well he transitions from a college campus to professional life.

The part I bolded is key. Need I say anymore. Thanks and have a nice day.

 

[meyerj31]

I'm not buying the kool-aid. There are guys like him every year and a very small percentage pan out as feature backs. Sure, there is potential with him. But any RB selected in an NFL draft has potential. I'm not blowing a 3rd round pick on somebody who has never done it before and couldn't take over Daniel Thomas on the depth chart behind Reggie Bush last year. That's pathetic, because Daniel Thomas is awful.

No player goes from being behind a Thomas-like player in his rookie year to becoming a fantasy feature back in his second year. Give me a break. It's June and everyone is bored so they are making unrealistic projections. Is he a solid RB3 pick with potential upside? Sure, but that's all. Those picking him in the 3rd round when they could get a stud productive WR like Nelson, Cruz, etc. in that area are making a terrible mistake.

 

[Touchdown There]

I'm not buying the kool-aid. There are guys like him every year and a very small percentage pan out as feature backs. Sure, there is potential with him. But any RB selected in an NFL draft has potential. I'm not blowing a 3rd round pick on somebody who has never done it before and couldn't take over Daniel Thomas on the depth chart behind Reggie Bush last year. That's pathetic, because Daniel Thomas is awful.

No player goes from being behind a Thomas-like player in his rookie year to becoming a fantasy feature back in his second year. Give me a break. It's June and everyone is bored so they are making unrealistic projections. Is he a solid RB3 pick with potential upside? Sure, but that's all. Those picking him in the 3rd round when they could get a stud productive WR like Nelson, Cruz, etc. in that area are making a terrible mistake.

I am reading from your post that the risk is just too high for you at his ADP. I can understand that. However, I also think that if Lamar stays healthy, he will get a heavy workload and outperform that ADP.

 

[Grahamburn]

Food for thought. Miami's schedule with Football Outsiders' 2012 rush defense ranks, and rush yards against per game:

1. Cleveland Browns (18) (19)

2. Indianapolis Colts (32) (29)

3. Atlanta Falcons (20) (21)

4. New Orleans Saints (30) (32)

5. Baltimore Ravens (26) (20)

7. Buffalo Bills (31) (31)

8. New England Patriots (6) (9)

9. Cincinnati Bengals (23) (12)

10. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3) (1)

11. San Diego Chargers (13) (6)

12. Carolina Panthers (11) (14)

13. NY Jets (15) (26)

14. Pittsburgh Steelers (8) (2)

15. New England Patriots (6) (9)

16. Buffalo Bills (31) (31)

17. NY Jets (15) (26)

10 games against defenses that were middle of the pack or worse in 2012 rush yards per game. No rush defense better than 18th in Miami's first 7 games.

Miller could have a really hot start to the season against those teams.

 

[ty247]

He was third on the depth chart, but let's analyze why:

He was a rookie, that had to learn pass protection which he was weak on as most rookies are. He also had to learn the system.

He was playing the same role Reggie Bush had, he wasn't supposed to be a short yardage back as was Daniel Thomas's role.

Given that, he still was given his chance to see what he was able to do, and succeeded when given the chance on the field.

Now he has been given the starting RB label and has the front office, starting QB, and team behind him.

If you watch him play, you see that he has the skills. If you look at his combine numbers he has the measurables.

This is the risk vs. reward scenario where you have to weigh just how confident you are in the player, vs. where you want to draft him. The third might not be the right price for you, and that's quite a steep price for him.. but how about the fourth? fifth round? that's the area where you start to get into, where it's definitely the right price for a young kid whom, if he tears it up you're looking at possible 1st/2nd round pick next year.

I'm not buying the kool-aid. There are guys like him every year and a very small percentage pan out as feature backs. Sure, there is potential with him. But any RB selected in an NFL draft has potential. I'm not blowing a 3rd round pick on somebody who has never done it before and couldn't take over Daniel Thomas on the depth chart behind Reggie Bush last year. That's pathetic, because Daniel Thomas is awful.

No player goes from being behind a Thomas-like player in his rookie year to becoming a fantasy feature back in his second year. Give me a break. It's June and everyone is bored so they are making unrealistic projections. Is he a solid RB3 pick with potential upside? Sure, but that's all. Those picking him in the 3rd round when they could get a stud productive WR like Nelson, Cruz, etc. in that area are making a terrible mistake.

 

[RBM]

260/1225/7

30/225/1

 

[bicycle_seat_sniffer]

260/1225/7

30/225/1

wow I like Miller, this is very optimistic. Lets hope

 

[Monsters of the Midway]

I like Miller but not as much as some of my friends. I will probably end up ranking him just low enough for someone who really likes him to reach and get him

 

[LususV]

I like Miller but not as much as some of my friends. I will probably end up ranking him just low enough for someone who really likes him to reach and get him

I'm similar. Unless he slips to the 5th, odds are on that I'll always like someone else better. But if he does last that far I'll snag him and be ecstatic.