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Player Spotlight: LaMont Jordan (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Jason Wood

Zoo York
[SIZE=14pt]2006 Player Spotlight Series[/SIZE]

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

[SIZE=14pt]Thread Topic: LaMont Jordan, RB, Oakland Raiders[/SIZE]

Player Page Link: LaMont Jordan Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

[SIZE=14pt]The Rules[/SIZE]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

[*]For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[SIZE=14pt]Best of Luck and ENJOY![/SIZE]

 
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295 carries  1225yrds  9tds

60 Rec  500yrds  3tds

1725 yds 12tds

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His reception total will not be nearly that high with the new Art Shell offense.I think the rushing stats are pretty dead on though.

Lamont scares me this year given his ADP. I'm not at all sold on Shell and OC Tom Walsh. If they run their 1994 offense (which was a joke even back then), the whole Raider team might revolt by midseason.

Then again, the O-line has a lot of talent and may be a force to be reckoned with. There are many questions to be answered in Oakland. Too many for a guy that's likely going to be drafted top 10.

 
Raiders | Lee signed

Mon, 8 May 2006 15:02:00 -0700

The Oakland Raiders have signed free agent RB ReShard Lee (Packers) to a one-year contract that included a base salary of $425,

Lamont will be sweating this pick up :P

 
Some fun facts.

In the first 14 games of the season (before he missed the last two games with turf toe), LaMont Jordan accounted for 1025 of the Raiders' 1257 rushing yards -- 82%. Even adding back in the last two games, Jordan accounted for 75% of the team's rushing yards and 30% of its total yards from scrimmage.

Those are high numbers. I don't see how Jordan's role in the offense can possibly increase, and it is very likely to decrease.

The Raiders' offense as a whole generally underachieved last year, however, and a rising tide would lift all ships. With stronger play from the OL, it is possible that Jordan's numbers (especially his rushing numbers) could improve in absolute terms even while accounting for a smaller percentage of the team's production as a whole.

Projections:

288 rushes, 1154 yards, 8 TDs; 58 rec, 456 yards, 1 TD

 
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Raiders | Lee signed

Mon, 8 May 2006 15:02:00 -0700

The Oakland Raiders have signed free agent RB ReShard Lee (Packers) to a one-year contract that included a base salary of $425,

Lamont will be sweating this pick up :P

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My friend's sister is Reshard Lee's squeeze. All this moving around from Dallas to Buffalo to Green Bay to Oakland must be tough. :loco:
 
I just hope Jordan is still hungry and comes back in shape. I'm concerned he may have been hungry in the off season and comes back a fat as-s.

290 -1300- 10 rushing

50-425-4 receiving

 
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Oh yeah, this is a Lamont Jordan thread, not Reshard Lee, my bad.

310/1300/10

45/400/2

 
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Alright, I'm going to come out and say it.

I'm biased. Turf toe scares the CRAP out of me, and is an automatic downgrade for me. Too many RBs get turf toe..and get it repeatedly. I'm scared that wasn't a one-time thing.

That aside, I don't think the receptions will take too big of a hit. I think Brooks will look to him a lot. Maybe not as much as Collins, but he'll get his touches in the passing game.

990 yards rushing, 9 rushing TDs. 55 receptions, 460 yards, 1 TD.

 
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Alright, I'm going to come out and say it.

I'm biased.  Turf toe scares the CRAP out of me, and is an automatic downgrade for me.  Too many RBs get turf toe..and get it repeatedly.  I'm scared that wasn't a one-time thing.

That aside, I don't think the receptions will take too big of a hit.  I think Brooks will look to him a lot.  Maybe not as much as Collins, but he'll get his touches in the passing game.

990 yards rushing, 9 rushing TDs.  55 receptions, 460 yards, 1 TD.

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So your stats are based on losing time due to injury? Only way I can see him not break 1000 yards. But he still gets 11 TDs and 55/460 in the passing game? Kind of scary if you project 15-16 games then.
 
Last year was Jordan's FIRST year as a featured RB in the NFL.

He's going to improve on last years numbers (maybe not the receiving totals however)

Art Shell is going to RIDE him hard (oh yeah baby)

315/1350/12

50/400/2

 
I expect that Jordan's ypc will go up, but that his touches will go down. Still, he makes me nervous at the ADPs I'm seeing - talentwise, Jordan is not one of the ten best backs in the league. (LT2, Alexander, LJ, Portis, Barber, Edge, Lewis, Caddy, Ronnie Brown, McGahee - and that's just off the top of my head).

 
Lamont Jordan projection....

295 carries

3.72 YPC

1099 rushing yards (68% of Oakland Rushing yards, due to Brooks rushing for250 yards)

8 rushing TDs

55 receptions

7.94 YPR

436 receiving yards

1 receiving TD

Total of 206 FPs (approx ranking of 12th RB)

 
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Lamont Jordan projection....

295 carries

3.72 YPC

1099 rushing yards

8 rushing TDs

55 receptions

7.94 YPR

436 receiving yards

1 receiving TD

206 FPs (approx ranking of 12th RB)

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206 FPs would've been a LOT more than the 12th RB last year.Mike Anderson was 9th, and he had 188.

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1. Not sure what point system you use, but Anderson was ranked 10th last year with 201 FPs and Dunn was ranked 12th with 188 FPs in a standard format.2. 206 FPs would have been ranked 9th last year, but I am using a 5 year average.

Over the last 5 years....

Average FPs per ranking for RBs...

Code: 
Rank    Average1       3502       3163       2964       2805       2606       2507       2428       2329       22310      21211      20712      20213      19314      18915      187
 
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I see no reason why Lamont won't see the same number of carries next season, about 19.42 per game, with a slightly better YPC, 4.0.

I think his receptions decrease with the return of a healthy Moss. A 25% decrease puts him at 3.75 rec/gm; I'll go with last year's 8 ypr.

311 carries, 1244 yards, 10 TDs

60 catches, 480 yards, 1 TD

238.4 fantasy points. :thumbup:

 
266 carries for 1010 yards (3.8 per) , 35 receptions for 210 yards ( 6 per catch),

8 total tds..

not the focal point he was under Norv Turner. Moss comes back strong in 2006, taking the majority of Brooks' passes. Jordan only caught 70 balls last year b/c Moss was nicked up and Porter had his problems..

 
352 carries @ 4.2 yards per carry for 1478 rushing yards

12 rushing tds

40 receptions @ 8.25 yards per reception for 330 receiving yards

2 receiving tds

I'm thinking these are his numbers barring injury.

It can't be too hard to get his YPC up, as long as Brooks can fire the deep ball still, and Moss can go get it... plus, I think their line looks better this year.

I definitely think his receptions go down significantly. So many of those were because of Kerry Collins dumping the ball off. I think with improved line play, that will happen a lot less. However, Shell will run Lamont a lot, I'm guestimating 22 carries a game.

A total of 264 fantasy points. RB5.

 
310 carries for 1300 yards with 13 RUSH TDs

45 receptions 300 yards 1 Rec TD

Don't under-estimate him again this year.

 
Contrary to the vertical game, it's in the best interest of the Raiders to establish control of the ground game and to minimize the damage that the D can do to the scoreboard.

320 carries

1315 yds

11 TD

40 receptions

280 yds

1 TD

 
Disappointment is on the horizon for many of Jordan owner's. You guys are acting like he's been consistent. (1st year ever in the top 25). Your acting like since he's with the Raiders he's alock to be in the top 15, (do we have to go back to Charlie Gardner to expect that?) Jordan has done it one year and that was with Norv "I will make a running back have a career year" Turner at the helm. I'm not saying Jordan will be horrible but all these #'s are alittle much I think. I could see alot more like......

1100 rushing

300 recieving

9 td's

 
Some fun facts.

In the first 14 games of the season (before he missed the last two games with turf toe), LaMont Jordan accounted for 1025 of the Raiders' 1257 rushing yards -- 82%. Even adding back in the last two games, Jordan accounted for 75% of the team's rushing yards and 30% of its total yards from scrimmage.

Those are high numbers. I don't see how Jordan's role in the offense can possibly increase, and it is very likely to decrease.

The Raiders' offense as a whole generally underachieved last year, however, and a rising tide would lift all ships. With stronger play from the OL, it is possible that Jordan's numbers (especially his rushing numbers) could improve in absolute terms even while accounting for a smaller percentage of the team's production as a whole.

Projections:

288 rushes, 1154 yards, 8 TDs; 58 rec, 456 yards, 1 TD

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So how can he be a top 5 with this production ( overrated ).I agree with the projection . All i am saying is most guys have him in the top 5 and he is nt a top 5 RB , maybe a top 10 at best .

 
I can't make a prediction on LaMont untill I see the preseason games. Last year I gave LaMont a huge bump in my PPR rankings after watching how many times he caught the ball.

If he is going to be more of a between the tackles type runer this year I think he is going to be a risk at his current ADP.

 
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310 carries for 1300 yards with 13 RUSH TDs

45 receptions 300 yards 1 Rec TD

Don't under-estimate him again this year.

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No way , we overestimated him last year not under .The guy was a disappointment he should have done much better in this offense .

He doesnt have enough speed , no moves and he doesnt break tackles .

Way overrated according to me .

He is a Ron Dayne with better receiving skills ( unfortunately not playing for the Broncos )

 
I can't make a prediction on LaMont untill I see the preseason games.  Last year I gave LaMont a huge bump in my PPR rankings after watching how many times he caught the ball.

If he is going to be more of a between the tackles type runer this year I think he is going to be a risk at his current ADP.

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:goodposting: Too many posters are looking in the rear-view mirror with Jordan. I really like the guy and think he's a good RB, but his ADP is way too high given his risks...

1. durability - I hate turf toe questions as well.

2. Art Shell/ Tom Walsh - their offense sucked before and Walsh has been running a bed and breakfast since 1994. At the very minimum, I see them trying to pound Jordan between the tackles as part of a "power" rushing attack. This will mean far less receptions and much higher injury risk.

Don't get me wrong, Lamont has a ton of upside as does the entire Raider offense, but Turdner is gone and so is his extremely RB-friendly offense.

IF he plays 16 games, his floor is 1100 yds rushing and 30 receptions. His ceiling is however, also extremely high given all the talent on that offense. I just refuse to pick the guy in the top 10 given the toe injury and the new coaching staff.

Then again after the big 3, Tiki and CP, all the RBs have serious pock marks, so it's a matter of risk/reward.

If I'm in the bottom 10, I'm looking at TO this year :bag: and some sleeper RBs later.

 
352 carries @ 4.2 yards per carry for 1478 rushing yards

12 rushing tds

40 receptions @ 8.25 yards per reception for 330 receiving yards

2 receiving tds
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:eek: There were ony TWO RBs in the NFL who had 352 carries or more last year (Tiki and Alexander).

Do you realize you are projecting a 30% increase in his carries (80 carries), AND a 10% increase in his YPC?

 
There were ony TWO FOUR RBs in the NFL who had 352 carries or more last year (Portis, Edge,Tiki and Alexander).
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Just a minor correction in the interests of accuracy fridayfrenzy.But your main point is still valid.

 
In leagues with 1 PPR, he could have added value. That is assuming that these dumpoff passes are still an important part of the new offense

 
In leagues with 1 PPR, he could have added value. That is assuming that these dumpoff passes are still an important part of the new offense
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This is exactly why I want to wait to see how many passes he halls down in preseason. Last year it was very clear he was going to catch way more balls then was being projected to anyone who watched any of the pre season games. If Jordan isn't as active in the passing game this year, his value takes a hit PPR or no.
 
Heh, I love that: He only did it for one year, like he's been starting for 6 years, and finally had a good season.

I would guess he has less catches this season for sure. 70 catches again? Doubtful, but 50 sounds easily reachable. Main reason is his backups are Crockett and Fargas. No Larry Centers on this team. TE? Same, Courtney Anderson. I'm hopeful he raises his game, but there's no reason to suggest he's gonna turn into Tony Gonzales.

As to his numbers being some byproduct of Norv Turner, and will drop because he's gone:

Ummm, gimmee a friggin' break. There is a connection between Norv and backs having good seasons, but that smacks of someone reading last year's fantasy articles, and ignoring the games.

Norv gave Lamont 20+ carries in only 6 games last year. I am sure that Norv would have been happy to run Lamont into the ground more last year, but their line played terribly. The hope is that the line improves this year with Gallery at LT, Sims at LG, Grove at C. There was major reshuffling due to injuries, the right side of their line was gone most of the season.

As far as Walsh and Shell are concerned, I dunno what kind of offense they are going to run, but it isn't like they are replacing some innovative masterpiece either. Turner's offense was stagnat, predictable, and far from explosive. Collins played not to lose, but he had little protection, and I have no idea if that was his play, the offense, or both.

Hey, if you think Walsh will suck, and the Raiders will stink, and Lamont's number will go down, no sweat. You may be right. But Norv Turner? He didn't do Lamont any favors last year.

I think the line improves, Gallery and Grove enter their 3rd season, Walker is healthy, Sims is at LG where he belongs. Hopefully Moss is 100% this season, he was hurt most of the year. I think Aaron Brooks is better at avoiding the rush than cement-shoes Collins, and those two factors alone should be good for another 30 or 40 carries next season.

310 carries--1240 yds--11 TD's

50 catches--400 yds--2 TD's

 
Heh, I love that: He only did it for one year, like he's been starting for 6 years, and finally had a good season.

I would guess he has less catches this season for sure. 70 catches again? Doubtful, but 50 sounds easily reachable. Main reason is his backups are Crockett and Fargas. No Larry Centers on this team. TE? Same, Courtney Anderson. I'm hopeful he raises his game, but there's no reason to suggest he's gonna turn into Tony Gonzales.

As to his numbers being some byproduct of Norv Turner, and will drop because he's gone:

Ummm, gimmee a friggin' break. There is a connection between Norv and backs having good seasons, but that smacks of someone reading last year's fantasy articles, and ignoring the games.

Norv gave Lamont 20+ carries in only 6 games last year. I am sure that Norv would have been happy to run Lamont into the ground more last year, but their line played terribly. The hope is that the line improves this year with Gallery at LT, Sims at LG, Grove at C. There was major reshuffling due to injuries, the right side of their line was gone most of the season.

As far as Walsh and Shell are concerned, I dunno what kind of offense they are going to run, but it isn't like they are replacing some innovative masterpiece either. Turner's offense was stagnat, predictable, and far from explosive. Collins played not to lose, but he had little protection, and I have no idea if that was his play, the offense, or both.

Hey, if you think Walsh will suck, and the Raiders will stink, and Lamont's number will go down, no sweat. You may be right. But Norv Turner? He didn't do Lamont any favors last year.

I think the line improves, Gallery and Grove enter their 3rd season, Walker is healthy, Sims is at LG where he belongs. Hopefully Moss is 100% this season, he was hurt most of the year. I think Aaron Brooks is better at avoiding the rush than cement-shoes Collins, and those two factors alone should be good for another 30 or 40 carries next season.

310 carries--1240 yds--11 TD's

50 catches--400 yds--2 TD's
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:goodposting: and not only because I think Jordan will again do well, but because it is well thought out.
 
352 carries @ 4.2 yards per carry for 1478 rushing yards

12 rushing tds

40 receptions @ 8.25 yards per reception for 330 receiving yards

2 receiving tds
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:eek: There were ony TWO RBs in the NFL who had 352 carries or more last year (Tiki and Alexander).

Do you realize you are projecting a 30% increase in his carries (80 carries), AND a 10% increase in his YPC?
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I also projected a large dropoff in receptions.I just think in Oakland we'll see smashmouth Lamont paired with bombs away Brooks/Moss.

I see no reason why Lamont couldn't average 22 carries a game if Shell coaches them the way I believe he will. Unless he gets injured, which is why I put the phrase "barring injury" in my initial post.

I think people don't realize how OFTEN the Raiders simply abandoned the run last year. I don't think Shell will do that at all.

 
Jordan is a Tank....he can take a beating and plus he's got a great attitude for being a hard worker...I think if Randy is healthy and keeps the D honest...Jordan could Expolde this year...also in a PPR league he's money...didnt Deuce Mcalister have a boat load of receptions with Brooks b4 his ACL injury?

1450 yards rushing

55 rec 400 yard reciving

14 total TD's

 
Posted this recently:

Here is something I found interesting. Look at Jordan's splits based on field position:

Own G -- Own 49: 167 carries, 59 targets

Midfield -- Opp 21: 63 carries, 29 targets

Opp 20 -- Opp 6: 26 carries, 13 targets

Opp 5 - Opp G: 16 carries, 2 targets

167 carries on the Raiders' side of the field, but only 105 on the opposing side. Look at carries splits for other top 10 RBs from last season:

1. Alexander - 179, 122, 42, 27 [EDIT: 179 on own side, 191 on opposing side]

2. LJ - 171, 100, 41, 24 [EDIT: 171 vs. 165]

3. LT - 168, 117, 34, 21 [EDIT: 168 vs. 172]

4. Tiki - 200, 104, 44, 10 [EDIT: 200 vs. 158]

5. Edge - 162, 120, 53, 25 [EDIT: 162 vs. 198]

6. Portis - 226, 74, 35, 16 [EDIT: 226 vs. 125]

7. Rudi - 153, 117, 51, 16 [EDIT: 153 vs. 184]

9. Thomas Jones - 180, 94, 28, 12 [EDIT: 180 vs. 134]

10. Mike Anderson - 104, 79, 32, 25 [EDIT: 104 vs. 136]

Only Portis and Thomas Jones had dropoffs comparable to Jordan's after crossing midfield.

I'm guessing that in Chicago's case, their offense was so poor they just ran a particularly low number of plays across midfield, but I don't know where to find this data. If true, Jones's usage probably didn't drop off too much if at all.

This is possibly true for the Redskins as well. Also, it seems like the Redskins completed a number of deep passes last year, which could have reduced that number...? Pure speculation. Still, it seems that Portis may not have been used as heavily across midfield.

Regardless, the patterns for Chicago and Washington could continue. Both offenses could improve, but the same coaches, and thus offensive philosophy, are in place.

But for Jordan, Shell takes over. Does this mean he will not be as likely to abandon the run once across midfield? Also, if the quality of the offense as a whole was a problem, it should improve, given the addition of Brooks, return of Curry, and hopefully a healthy Moss.

I can see more carries and fewer targets but at least the same number of touches per game. I definitely think he is a top 8 draft pick. I don't think he has a shot at being a top 3 RB, but I could see a bit of upside there for him to get as high as RB4 or RB5.
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Posted this in a Poll Thread concerning LaMont Jordan's potential receiving numbers with Shell as the Head Coach.

Not sure if it amounts to a hill of beans, but interesteing none the less.

Art Shell's historical use of RB's in the passing game.

*Did not do 1988, as that was only a partial year for Shell as HC*

1989

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

20, 19, 18 & 9 receptions - total of 66 receptions - 640 yds - 2 TD's

1990

4 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen catching the most.

15, 6, 4 & 1 receptions - total of 26 receptions - 294 yds - 4 TD's

1991

4 RB's caught passes, with Roger Craig catching the most.

17, 15, 15 & 6 receptions - total of 53 receptions - 459 yds - 1 TD

1992

5 RB's caught passes, with Marcus Allen/Steve Smith catching the most.

28, 28, 14, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 76 receptions - 632 yds - 3 TD's

1993

6 RB's caught passes, with Steve Smith catching the most.

18, 15, 11, 10, 4 & 2 receptions - total of 60 receptions - 530 yds - 0 TD's

1994

5 RB's caught passes, with Harvey Williams catching the most.

47, 26, 8, 2 & 2 receptions - total of 85 receptions - 731 yds - 4 TD's
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