Player Spotlight: Larry Fitzgerald (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Arizona Cardinals

Player Page Link: Plaxico Burress Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

90+/1,300+/10 TD+

 

[shadyridr]

Stud WR. Goto guy in the redzone. Great QB. I love him this year as a top 5 WR.

90 rec, 1300 yds, 12 tds

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

He's the go to guy in the redzone in passing situations for the Cardinals. He's got great hands, good jumping ability and knows how to use his body to shield off defenders. Great player on a team that's improving on offense.

1290 yards receiving, 11 td's and 92 receptions

 

[Lash]

WR1 in initial Dynasties by a decent margin

i just hope he doesn't bulk up much more because loss of flexibility = hamstring/other muscle pulls that hamper many WR

look for something in between...

Low: 1150/8/86

High: 1400/12/100

 

[dickey moe]

He's gonna have to prove that he can stay healthy this upcoming season before I'd take him at WR1.

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's gonna have to prove that he can stay healthy this upcoming season before I'd take him at WR1.

Was he injured a lot in 2004 and 2005? Was he ever injured at Pitt?He had a few injuries last season...it happens, but I wouldn't consider him injury prone. Boldin has been injured a bit too since he was drafted.

 

[kensat30]

90/1250/11

 

[DWidmar]

In the offense they were running in Arizona there were plenty of balls to go around for Boldin and Fitz. My concern this year is, I definately dont think there is going to be that many balls being thrown around. Boldin is highly talented (more than given credit for) and he continues to post great numbers. I am having a hard time with this prediction because I dont really know where this offense will go. The wr's are way more talented than in Pittsburgh but how will that change the game plan. Too early for me to feel comfortable making any predictions for Fitz. I do feel he is more talented than Boldin and should be WR#1 in this offense but what does that mean? I am not sure yet. Having a hard time with this one.

 

[2stix]

Stud WR. He is the AZ Red Zone.

1250 yds

95 rec

12 tds

 

[phthalatemagic]

I think he gets less yards, but more touchdowns.

75 receptions

1100 yards

16 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

Here's a piece that I wrote for the FBG magazine that should be out in July. I clearly am not as high on Fitzgerald as others are. Although I think he his immensely talented, I think the situation is heading the wrong direction for him to post uber numbers . . .(This is the Low Side on a Larry Fitzgelad Face-Off.)

Larry Fitzgerald is currently ranked as the #3 fantasy wide receiver, but there are telltale signs that point to him ending the year well below that ranking. People remember Fitzgerald’s stellar 2005 campaign when he finished as the #2 fantasy receiver, but much has changed in Arizona since then. While the Cardinals seem to be on the rise, the changes being implemented in the dessert DO NOT bode well for Fitzgerald. Since 2000, the #3 ranked fantasy wide receiver has averaged 206 points—which works out to 12.9 fantasy points per game over a 16-game season.Fitzgerald has been a beast in his young career—the problem being that his highest production levels have come with KURT WARNER at quarterback. Fitzgerald has not been anywhere near as productive with other quarterbacks leading the offense. He’s been roughly 25% less productive without Warner: · In 15 games with Warner at QB: 12.25 fantasy ppg· In 30 games with other QBs: 9.13 fantasy ppg· In 7 games with Leinart at QB: 9.7 fantasy ppgAt that fantasy-scoring rate, Fitzgerald would have ranked as the #14 fantasy wide receiver last year.The 2007 Cardinals are not the 2005 Cardinals and now have Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. The 2005 Cardinals far and away led the league with 670 passing attempts—very close to the league record of 699. By comparison, that same year the Pittsburgh Steelers (with Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator) had just 379 passing attempts. The prior season, the Steelers had 618 RUSHING attempts (to go along with a meager 358 passing attempts). This year, there’s already been some early talk about getting the Cardinals up to 550 rushing attempts.While it’s unlikely the Cardinals will transform from a prolific passing team to a pound-the-ball-on-the-ground-all-game team in three seasons, there is a good chance that the team sees a noticeable drop-off in passing attempts and a decent increase in rushing attempts. With another young Pro Bowl wide receiver lining up opposite Fitzgerald (Anquan Boldin), Fitzgerald will continue to share the receiving workload, which again should limit his production. In fact, since Fitzgerald started his career, Boldin has averaged almost a full reception more per game (6.03 for Boldin vs, 5.11 for Fitzgerald).Factoring all these elements into the mix, it appears people are paying for Fitzgerald’s 2005 production even though his stock appears to have dipped since then given the current market conditions. With the way the Cardinals are evolving, Fitzgerald may struggle to rank in the Top 10 receivers this year.

If pressed for an actual early projection, I'd probably go with 80-1100-8 which would normally rank him in the WR 10-12 range.

 

[Tillmanisahero]

He's gonna have to prove that he can stay healthy this upcoming season before I'd take him at WR1.

and I am a homer!

 

[jurb26]

88 receptions, 1185 yds, 10 TDs

 

[RBM]

Monster

90/1300/12

 

[AnonymousBob]

People seem to be forgetting The Grimace is no longer the head coach there.

 

[KING]

top 3 WR. whats not to like.

90 1260 14.0 11

 

[softball]

People seem to be forgetting The Grimace is no longer the head coach there.

Shhhhh

 

[BLOX]

With Edgerrin James having been on the team for a whole season now, and with a coach that is more run-orientated, i think teams are going to have to focus on much more than just trying to stop Boldin and Fitgerald.

I expect Leinert to get comfortable going to his two WRs early and often and Edge forcing the defenses to stay honest. We'll see, but I expect both Fitzgerald and Boldin to have career years this season.

100 rec. 1500 yards 14 TD

 

[AnonymousBob]

With Edgerrin James having been on the team for a whole season now, and with a coach that is more run-orientated, i think teams are going to have to focus on much more than just trying to stop Boldin and Fitgerald.I expect Leinert to get comfortable going to his two WRs early and often and Edge forcing the defenses to stay honest. We'll see, but I expect both Fitzgerald and Boldin to have career years this season.100 rec. 1500 yards 14 TD

So you expect Boldin to have over 1400 yards with 9+tds?That's a MINIMUM of 2900 yards and 23 tds for Leinart.

 

[Maurile Tremblay]

81 receptions, 1096 yards, 8.4 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

With Edgerrin James having been on the team for a whole season now, and with a coach that is more run-orientated, i think teams are going to have to focus on much more than just trying to stop Boldin and Fitgerald.I expect Leinert to get comfortable going to his two WRs early and often and Edge forcing the defenses to stay honest. We'll see, but I expect both Fitzgerald and Boldin to have career years this season.100 rec. 1500 yards 14 TD

Wouldn't PIT receivers have had massive totals then if defenders had to ***us on the run?

 

[Carter_Can_Fly]

81 receptions, 1096 yards, 8.4 TDs

I am fascinated with the love Fitzgerald gets in the fantasy world. Can someone please tell me why he is better in dynasty than Boldin??? Boldin is only 3 years older than Fitz. So although age is something you do need to consider in dynasty Boldin is only 26 years old.Fitz is a man child for sure, but I will let somebody else grab him earlier then I think he deserves to be taken. Fitz is a good red zone guy, but who knows how that plays out in Arizona. Also, Boldin who can be drafted later will get better production than Fitz. Boldin is what hurts Fitz' value.Fitz78 catches1060 yards7 TD'sBoldin90 catches1350 yards6 TD's* I don't own either of these guys.

 

[Arnold. S]

if that new O-line holds up well, expect a huge season from Fitz.

90 rec, 1350 yds, 14 TDs

 

[Spartans Rule]

Here's a piece that I wrote for the FBG magazine that should be out in July. I clearly am not as high on Fitzgerald as others are. Although I think he his immensely talented, I think the situation is heading the wrong direction for him to post uber numbers . . .

(This is the Low Side on a Larry Fitzgelad Face-Off.)

Larry Fitzgerald is currently ranked as the #3 fantasy wide receiver, but there are telltale signs that point to him ending the year well below that ranking. People remember Fitzgerald’s stellar 2005 campaign when he finished as the #2 fantasy receiver, but much has changed in Arizona since then. While the Cardinals seem to be on the rise, the changes being implemented in the dessert DO NOT bode well for Fitzgerald. Since 2000, the #3 ranked fantasy wide receiver has averaged 206 points—which works out to 12.9 fantasy points per game over a 16-game season.

Fitzgerald has been a beast in his young career—the problem being that his highest production levels have come with KURT WARNER at quarterback. Fitzgerald has not been anywhere near as productive with other quarterbacks leading the offense. He’s been roughly 25% less productive without Warner:

· In 15 games with Warner at QB: 12.25 fantasy ppg

· In 30 games with other QBs: 9.13 fantasy ppg

· In 7 games with Leinart at QB: 9.7 fantasy ppg

At that fantasy-scoring rate, Fitzgerald would have ranked as the #14 fantasy wide receiver last year.

The 2007 Cardinals are not the 2005 Cardinals and now have Ken Whisenhunt as head coach. The 2005 Cardinals far and away led the league with 670 passing attempts—very close to the league record of 699. By comparison, that same year the Pittsburgh Steelers (with Whisenhunt as offensive coordinator) had just 379 passing attempts. The prior season, the Steelers had 618 RUSHING attempts (to go along with a meager 358 passing attempts). This year, there’s already been some early talk about getting the Cardinals up to 550 rushing attempts.

While it’s unlikely the Cardinals will transform from a prolific passing team to a pound-the-ball-on-the-ground-all-game team in three seasons, there is a good chance that the team sees a noticeable drop-off in passing attempts and a decent increase in rushing attempts. With another young Pro Bowl wide receiver lining up opposite Fitzgerald (Anquan Boldin), Fitzgerald will continue to share the receiving workload, which again should limit his production. In fact, since Fitzgerald started his career, Boldin has averaged almost a full reception more per game (6.03 for Boldin vs, 5.11 for Fitzgerald).

Factoring all these elements into the mix, it appears people are paying for Fitzgerald’s 2005 production even though his stock appears to have dipped since then given the current market conditions. With the way the Cardinals are evolving, Fitzgerald may struggle to rank in the Top 10 receivers this year.

If pressed for an actual early projection, I'd probably go with 80-1100-8 which would normally rank him in the WR 10-12 range.

I agree totally. I hadn't looked at this while doing my Arizona projections but came up with almost the exact same thing with the same reasoning: 81-1094-8

Last year, Arizona threw all of 17 TD passes as a team. According to the projections in this thread, Fitzgerald is going to come close to that all by himself this year, despite the fact that he hauled in only 6 TDs in 13 games last year, and in 2005, when Arizona put up one of the most imbalanced, pass-heavy seasons in the history of the NFL, he caught 10 TDs.

I must be missing something. Is Ken Whisenhunt installing the run-and-shoot? Did he bring Jeff Hartings and Alan Faneca with him from Pittsburgh, so that the Cardinals now have a top 5 line? What I see is an inexperienced QB operating behind what is still a below-average line in a new system that will take time to adjust to and be more run-oriented, leaving fewer balls available in the already fierce competition for catches.

I think it's a bit shortsighted to simply say STUD! and call it a day.

 

[BigRed]

With Edgerrin James having been on the team for a whole season now, and with a coach that is more run-orientated, i think teams are going to have to focus on much more than just trying to stop Boldin and Fitgerald.I expect Leinert to get comfortable going to his two WRs early and often and Edge forcing the defenses to stay honest. We'll see, but I expect both Fitzgerald and Boldin to have career years this season.100 rec. 1500 yards 14 TD

Wouldn't PIT receivers have had massive totals then if defenders had to ***us on the run?

No, because PIT WRs (and QB) weren't (aren't) anywhere near AZ's talent level. Honestly this whole "he's from PIT so this will be like PIT" has really been overblown (PS Dave I know that's not what you're saying exactly, but thoughts along those lines are overblown is all I'm saying).

Fitz is a good red zone guy, but who knows how that plays out in Arizona.

Who else will suddenly become the main red zone threat? Pope?I think the new coaching will restore more of a run/pass balance, but w/those 2 WRs and Leinert maturing, I am betting Ken W isn't dumb enough to try and pretend this is the Steelers. My main concern is whether Leinert goes to Fitz more or is he going to "favor" Boldin.I have Fitz ranked just behind the top few WRs (Holt etc) and in fact nearly even with Chad Johnson, who is at the bottom of that 1st tier.

 

[War Eagle]

With Edgerrin James having been on the team for a whole season now, and with a coach that is more run-orientated, i think teams are going to have to focus on much more than just trying to stop Boldin and Fitgerald.I expect Leinert to get comfortable going to his two WRs early and often and Edge forcing the defenses to stay honest. We'll see, but I expect both Fitzgerald and Boldin to have career years this season.100 rec. 1500 yards 14 TD

So you expect Boldin to have over 1400 yards with 9+tds?That's a MINIMUM of 2900 yards and 23 tds for Leinart.

Whelp, that's why I drafted Leinart. I think he ends up with something more like 4000 and 28 w/ Fitzgerald hauling in 1300-1500 and 12-15 of that