Player Spotlight: Larry Johnson (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Larry Johnson, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Larry Johnson Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Dog]

360 Rushes, 1800 yards, 21 rush TDs, 45 rec, 350 yards, 4 rec. TDs

 

[TME]

352 carries, 1,725 yards, 24 TDs

48 receptions, 432 yards, 1 TD

 

[Power Monster]

A pure animal in fantasy. He was looking like a man amongst boys last year. The only thing I worry about is the age on the OL but he looks good for:

345 carries 1,650 yards 22 TDs

55 rec 500 yards 4 TDs

1st pick overall in redraft leagues....

 

[Tackling Dummies]

370 carries / 1905 yds / 26 TD

40 rec / 325 yds / 1 TD

Continued to shred the league despite facing elite running defenses and KC is facing the soft NFC West in their out of division games this season.

 

[ruelvis]

part of the equation is LJ's skills and part of the equation is the OL. yes, they are getting a bit old but they are arguably one of the best OL lines in history and the only thing that they haven't done is bring home a 2000 yd rusher. I think that's what motivates guys like roaf and shields to stay on board and HC edwards will play to that. LJ breaking the 2000 barrier will be a topic of conversation on the pregame talk shows in november and december.

I think he can and will do it, but when doing my projections i tend to be more conservative.

348 carries, 1740 yds 22 tds

40 rec 350yds 2 tds

 

[menobrown]

I"m curious as to why everyone has his carries so low? Curtis Martin carried the ball over 370 times the year before under Herm and he was older and smaller than LJ and had a very good backup in Lamont Jordan. I'm not saying LJ is going to continue his per game carry pace from last season but I see no reason why he would have less carries over a 16 game season than Curtis Martin got playing under Herm.

 

[Shiver44]

The loss of T-Rich is going to hurt, more than people anticipate. I live in Kansas City, his run blocking was a huge part of the Chiefs run game.

 

[Byron_nyc]

Don't drink the Kool-Aid! In reality, LJ has had half a monster season, but hasn't proved he can carry the load the whole year. Not saying he can't do it, but why would you take an unproven commodity over Shaun Alexander? Remember this time last year, Julius Jones was predicting himself 2000 yards and Kevin Jones was fixing for 1500. I don't get why a guy who has never had a great season is being drafted above two guys who have three-to-five seasons of super-stud performance. Its mystifying.

Other reasons for doubt: aging line, loss of offensive guru to Washington, PRIEST HOLMES -- hello! If you don't think a healthy Priest Holmes will cut into LJ's numbers, your nuts. Really, this LJ as slam dunk #1 thing is completely insane. I've got him where he belongs: at the top of the "potential stud" class, above Jackson and Joran and Caddy, but after the guys who really are studs: SA, LT, Tiki, and Clinton.

310 / 1200 / 10.

 

[joffer]

360/1700/19 rushing -

40/422/1 receiving

A stud in the best RB system on the planet. 9 starts, 9 100-yard games, only one game without a TD. 336 carries and he hasn't done it for a full season??? WTF???

No young, new QB. Didn't just sign the huge contract last year, in fact, he's still playing for that big contract.

The new OC is the old offensive line coach who helped build this RB system, no reason to change anything. Herm was brought in to change the defense, and even if his influence creeps in, i don't see the negative.

Easily the #1 pick in redrafts this year.

edited 7/29 after Roaf retirement

 

[tietzjd]

Don't drink the Kool-Aid! In reality, LJ has had half a monster season,

Monster Half? What did he end up as 3rd in total points for RB's?How can you compair him to JJ or anyone else. They did not finish just behind Shun and LT in any season.

 

[Snotbubbles]

I don't get why a guy who has never had a great season is being drafted above two guys who have three-to-five seasons of super-stud performance. Its mystifying.

You don't think 336-1750-5.2-20 | 33-343-10.4-1 is a great season? I think it's more impressive that he did it in basically half as many games as Alexander and Tomlinson.

 

[Sopranos]

345/2250 yards 26td's, 55rec 370 yards 5 tds.. not bad ha?

 

[lebowski]

345/2250 yards 26td's, 55rec 370 yards 5 tds.. not bad ha?

WOW... that is a bold prediction.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

375/1920/22

28/305/3

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't know how many yards or TD Johnson will produce if he stays heathy other than to say--a whole lot.

He's only had 17 games with 10 or more carries. Yet he's had 13 games with 100+ rushing yards and another with 100+ receiving yards.

In his last 21 games played (not all as a starter mind you), he's scored AT LEAST 2 TOUCHDOWNS in 13 of them. For those that missed it, that was AT LEAST T-W-O (2) TOUCHDOWNS in 13 of them.

By comparison, in their last 21 games played, Alexander has scored at least twice in 8 games and LT did it 7 times (not counting TD passes).

I will think of some projected numbers to post, but as I said, they should be on the high side of high.

 

[lebowski]

345 1691 rushing 24 Ru TD 450 recieving 2TD's

 

[lebowski]

I don't know how many yards or TD Johnson will produce if he stays heathy other than to say--a whole lot.

He's only had 17 games with 10 or more carries. Yet he's had 13 games with 100+ rushing yards and another with 100+ receiving yards.

In his last 21 games played (not all as a starter mind you), he's scored AT LEAST 2 TOUCHDOWNS in 13 of them. For those that missed it, that was AT LEAST T-W-O (2) TOUCHDOWNS in 13 of them.

By comparison, in their last 21 games played, Alexander has scored at least twice in 8 games and LT did it 7 times (not counting TD passes).

I will think of some projected numbers to post, but as I said, they should be on the high side of high.

So you would take him #1...

 

[David Yudkin]

I don't know how many yards or TD Johnson will produce if he stays heathy other than to say--a whole lot.

He's only had 17 games with 10 or more carries.  Yet he's had 13 games with 100+ rushing yards and another with 100+ receiving yards.

In his last 21 games played (not all as a starter mind you), he's scored AT LEAST 2 TOUCHDOWNS in 13 of them.  For those that missed it, that was AT LEAST T-W-O (2) TOUCHDOWNS in 13 of them.

By comparison, in their last 21 games played, Alexander has scored at least twice in 8 games and LT did it 7 times (not counting TD passes).

I will think of some projected numbers to post, but as I said, they should be on the high side of high.

So you would take him #1...

The problem in projecting Johnson is that in back-to-back years he posted insane numbers over the second half of each season. I generally am of the mind that there are typically guys that can do exceedingly well in a shortened timeframe but it's all but impossible to keep up the pace for an entire 16 games.Last year, the poster boys for said philosophy were Julius Jones and Willis McGahee--both of whom were touted as Top 5 or Top 10 picks based on their performances at the end of the previous seasons. I waived red flags on these two (and some other players as well) to get people to realize that it was unrealistic to post those numbers over a full year. I projected McGahee to have the same numbers over a full season even though everyone said he basically did what he did in 2/3 of a season.

As much as I like Johnson, I think he falls into that category (just to a lesser extent). Yes, he put up a season's worth of production in about half a year. But is he really going to average 32 touches a game like he did at the end of the year over a 16-game schedule? I highly doubt it. RB simply do not get 500+ touches and live to tell about it.

I have said many times that a healthy pure starter in KC should have a low end projection higher than a high side projection for almost any other RB, and I pretty much will stick to that. There is some concern in coaching and personnel changes, but I still feel Johnson will be a monster.

I am reluctant to ever project any RB much beyond 1500/500/20, as that rarely happens in the big scheme of things. While I would refrain from projecting him at 2,500 total yards and 30 TD, I would not be shocked to see him get it. LJ had almost 2100 with 21 TD in a partial season last year. Johnson and Holmes combined for 2741 total yards and 28 TD, so the offense can support uber RB production.

The problem still remains, projecting Johnson at more than 400 touches is almost impossible to do. Assuming Johnson produces at the same rate as last year, 400 touches would get Johnson 363 fantasy points. Last year, Alexander scored 364 fantasy points.

If you asked which RB would be more likely to get to that level this year (LJ or SA), I would say Johnson. (IMO LT does not even merit consideration in the debate as to who to take #1 overall in a 0 PPR redraft league).

If pressed for a season long total, I would probably say close to what he did last year. If I was fortunate enough to draft him, I would not feel slighted in another 2100/21 season. To answer the question, yeas I would take LJ first overall in a 0 PPR redraft.

 

[Byron_nyc]

I want to believe, I really do. The kid was certainly a monster last year, but I still can't shake my doubts.... it was only nine games, half a season, and seasons are long and guys start to get beat up.... I feel the howls the ghosts of so many RBs who flamed out after big (although not this big) starts... Tony Richardson knocking people over for Chester Taylor.... Saunders calling plays for Clinton Portis.... Willie Roaf moaning on Monday morning... I want to believe, I really do, but I just can't.

I would take him #5, but I just wouldn't take him #1, that's all. Seems like every year a hard consensus grows around the #1, like LT last year. All I am saying, is just don't be suprised if he doesn't win the rushing title and break the single-season TD record.

 

[menobrown]

The problem still remains, projecting Johnson at more than 400 touches is almost impossible to do.

Why? Martin got 412 touches in Herms' offense in 2004.I also wanted to add the following. If I was comparing LJ's projected numbers I would look at how the Dolphins used/abused Ricky Williams when they first acquired him. Ricky got over 430 touches 2 years in a row but he was built for it. So is LJ, who will be running behind a much better line than Ricky ran behind those 2 years.

 

[Sinrman]

310 / 1200 / 10.

He has some things that will hurt him, like the loss of Richardson, mentioned earlier. But he still has that chip on his shoulder, and will be out there to prove he's "the man" and can play an entire season. And that cupcake schedule (vs. NFC West) is just too good to be true...

383 rushes

2049 yards

25 TDs

48 receptions

488 yards

3 TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

The problem still remains, projecting Johnson at more than 400 touches is almost impossible to do.

Why? Martin got 412 touches in Herms' offense in 2004.

Since seasons switched to 16 games in 1978, there have been 37 times when a RB has had 400+ tocuhes in a season. That works out to 1.32 RB per season. It's happened 10 times in the past 5 years (2 per season).IMO, projecting backs above 400 touches is setting yourself to be wrong way more than you will be right. Sure, it could happen, but it's not likely to happen.

Look at Martin. He's done it 3 times. But that means he didn't do it 8 times. so many things have to play out exactly right for a RB to get the ball that many times in a year.

 

[TME]

Don't drink the Kool-Aid! In reality, LJ has had half a monster season, but hasn't proved he can carry the load the whole year. Not saying he can't do it, but why would you take an unproven commodity over Shaun Alexander? Remember this time last year, Julius Jones was predicting himself 2000 yards and Kevin Jones was fixing for 1500. I don't get why a guy who has never had a great season is being drafted above two guys who have three-to-five seasons of super-stud performance. Its mystifying.

Other reasons for doubt: aging line, loss of offensive guru to Washington, PRIEST HOLMES -- hello! If you don't think a healthy Priest Holmes will cut into LJ's numbers, your nuts. Really, this LJ as slam dunk #1 thing is completely insane. I've got him where he belongs: at the top of the "potential stud" class, above Jackson and Joran and Caddy, but after the guys who really are studs: SA, LT, Tiki, and Clinton.

310 / 1200 / 10.

It's a fair argument. Can you please post your Holmes predictions too?Thanks

 

[David Yudkin]

Don't drink the Kool-Aid!  In reality, LJ has had half a monster season, but hasn't proved he can carry the load the whole year.  Not saying he can't do it, but why would you take an unproven commodity over Shaun Alexander?    Remember this time last year, Julius Jones was predicting himself 2000 yards and Kevin Jones was fixing for 1500.  I don't get why a guy who has never had a great season is being drafted above two guys who have three-to-five seasons of super-stud performance.  Its mystifying. 

Other reasons for doubt:  aging line, loss of offensive guru to Washington, PRIEST HOLMES -- hello!  If you don't think a healthy Priest Holmes will cut into LJ's numbers, your nuts.   Really, this LJ as slam dunk #1 thing is completely insane.  I've got him where he belongs:  at the top of the "potential stud" class, above Jackson and Joran and Caddy, but after the guys who really are studs: SA, LT, Tiki, and Clinton.

310 / 1200 / 10.

It's a fair argument. Can you please post your Holmes predictions too?Thanks

I believe it is illegal in some states to utter the words "healthy" and "Priest Holmes" in the same sentence, as the 3-year statute of limitations has expired.KC has (and said they will again) run the ball 500 times. Even if you give Holmes 150 carries (which IMO is a pipe dream), that still would leave 350 for LJ. Most RB don't even get 350 carries, so not to worry even if Holmes comes back.

As for those citing the Julius Jones and Kevin Jones examples, the main difference is that the Chiefs offense has proven it can support and sustain the numbers that Johnson posted. The Cowboys and Lions offenses did not (and thus could not) meet those numbers game in and game out. Nowhere near apples to apples in my book.

 

[MLBrandow]

397, 2109, 23TD

49, 461, 5TD

And a couple MVPs.

 

[BassNBrew]

Just looked at LJ's 2nd half numbers on a annual basis.

480-2500-28

 

[Yitbos69]

345/2250 yards 26td's, 55rec 370 yards 5 tds.. not bad ha?

WOW... that is a bold prediction.

It's not bold its ridiculous !!!! 352/1550/19 Rush.......48/315/2 Rec.

Edit: as stated above 345/2250=just over 6.5ypc....... ridiculous !!!

 

[Shiver44]

385 Carries

1617 Rushing Yards

15 Rushing Touchdowns

45 Receptions

302 Rec. Yards

3 Receiving Touchdowns

 

[PurplePride]

At 105 yds avg. a game it'd be 1680 with 22 td (1.5 avg per gm)

say 30 rec yards a game 480 with 5 tds

this is conservative, but still a nice #1 rb

 

[ShotGunStyle]

367 carries

1647 yards

18 TDs

40 catches

350 yards

3 TDs

 

[menobrown]

396 carries, 1,9001 yards, 22 TD's

43 catches for 427 yards and 3 TD's.

Herm is going to work him to death because he plays to win the game.

 

[The Man With No Name]

384 carries, 1882 yards 23 td's

42 rec, 357 yards, 3 td's

 

[LawFitz]

I don't get why a guy who has never had a great season is being drafted above...

I'd say he had a great season last year. In fact he put up numbers that would qualify as a great 16 game season even though he truly was the #1 for only about 10 games.You might be able to argue for SA or LT above LJ, but no way he slips past #3 in my book anyway.

ETA: 350 carries, 1700 yds, 19 TDs

48 catches, 550 yds, 5 TDs

 

[NoFBinLA]

345/2250 yards 26td's, 55rec 370 yards 5 tds.. not bad ha?

WOW... that is a bold prediction.

It's not bold its ridicules!!!! 352/1550/19 Rush.......48/315/2 Rec.

Edit: as stated above 345/2250=just over 6.5ypc.......Ridicules!!!

First of all -- sorry to play spelling fascist but: ridiculous is the word you are looking for unless LJ is making fun of people.Sorry, it's just not that hard to spell.

To the topic at hand: I think LJ may fall somewhere between the two estimations:

350/1950/20 and 50rec/340yds/2tds.

 

[thehobbit]

330/1450/18 Rushing stats

30/270/1 Receiving stats

 

[Yitbos69]

345/2250 yards 26td's, 55rec 370 yards 5 tds.. not bad ha?

WOW... that is a bold prediction.

It's not bold its ridicules!!!! 352/1550/19 Rush.......48/315/2 Rec.

Edit: as stated above 345/2250=just over 6.5ypc.......Ridicules!!!

First of all -- sorry to play spelling fascist but: ridiculous is the word you are looking for unless LJ is making fun of people.Sorry, it's just not that hard to spell.

To the topic at hand: I think LJ may fall somewhere between the two estimations:

350/1950/20 and 50rec/340yds/2tds.

sorry for the spelling error... I do it all the time. It is my only flaw. It will be corrected.. Thank you again! Have you considered going into teaching? Follow your dreams.

 

[Nemesis Enforcer]

360/1692/20 rushing with 44/390/2 receiving

#1 rb on my board.

 

[coachjim]

Owning LJ in a dynasty is just about cheating. I think he is nothing but money. Watching him shred defenses last year was sooooo much fun.

This year I hope he does not average more than 25 touches a game. If he has 25 touches I think he ends up with some thing like:

350/1775/24

48/515/5

With 25 touches a game I think he stays fresh and strong all year.

I only hope I draw #1 in my redraft so I can get him there as well.

 

[BigRed]

Just looked at LJ's 2nd half numbers on a annual basis.

480-2500-28

Why stop there?600-2900-50



lmao @ all the delusions of grandeur. Last year does not = this year. Or am I the only one who remembers Gary Brown? Oh yeah, did Manning toss 49 TDs last year? But I remember a lot of "he tossed 49 and I see no reason why he can't put up similar numbers blah blah" lol

Sure I'd like to have him but no freakin way does he sniff these numbers. He will go for WAY too much in our auction league.

 

[joffer]

Or am I the only one who remembers Gary Brown?

maybe, because i'm not seeing the analogy

+--------------------------+-------------------------+                 |          Rushing         |        Receiving        |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| Year  TM |   G |   Att  Yards    Y/A   TD |   Rec  Yards   Y/R   TD |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+| 1991 hou |  11 |     8     85   10.6    1 |     2      1   0.5    0 || 1992 hou |  16 |    19     87    4.6    1 |     1      5   5.0    0 || 1993 hou |  16 |   195   1002    5.1    6 |    21    240  11.4    2 || 1994 hou |  12 |   169    648    3.8    4 |    18    194  10.8    1 || 1995 hou |   9 |    86    293    3.4    0 |     6     16   2.7    0 || 1997 sdg |  15 |   253    945    3.7    4 |    21    137   6.5    0 || 1998 nyg |  16 |   247   1063    4.3    5 |    13     36   2.8    0 || 1999 nyg |   3 |    55    177    3.2    0 |     2      2   1.0    0 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+|  TOTAL   |  98 |  1032   4300    4.2   21 |    84    631   7.5    3 |+----------+-----+--------------------------+-------------------------+

 

[sib]

It's criminal to mention Larry Johnson in the same sentence as Kevin Jones and Julius Jones no matter what example is being cited. LJ is a man amongst boys. He runs with a chip on his shoulder and he is PISSED as hell that he had to sit back and watch while other less talented RBs were getting opportunities. He's looking to make up for lost time and he's got an eye on the record book. Folks knock LJ because he lost Tony Richardson; last time I checked Shaun Alexander lost Steve Hutchinson and LT has a newbie QB running the show. I dont think LT can't outperform LJ regardless, but fat chance of that happening if Rivers can't keep the defense honest.

KC's offense is aging, but I didn't see anything to indicate a drop-off in productivity last yr. You have to like the hiring of Herm edwards for LJ; he'll be more conservative with a lead and rely on his horse to grind out the yards and take time off the clock. Trent Green, Eddie Kennison, and Gonzo are competent enough along with the OL to give LJ enough room to post some serious numbers.

331 carres 1588 yards, 21 TDs

45 receptions 346 yards and 3 TDs

 

[Phlash]

Easy

375/2106/22

34/305/1

 

[mlball77]

Does the new HC and offensive scheme not temper some of these lofty projections? It does for me in this instance. LJ will be great this year, but not all-world, imo.

Rush Yds: 1500

Rush Tds: 17

Recs: 35

Rec Yds: 325

Rec Tds: 1

 

[modus]

I see LJ getting close to 400+ carries with Herm Edwards as the coach. He's not known as a coach that will open up the offense when he gets a 10+ point lead. He runs the ball and he always has run the ball.

Another thing to consider is LJ's touches are a little different than a McGahee, Julius Jones, or Portis carry. A large percentage of LJ's carries are taken to the second level, which means he's taking on the secondary and speedy LBs. He's not a pure run between the tackles back just because of the talent of his offense line, so he can avoid taking on run stoppers run after run. He won't take the beating a normal back will endure with an average line.

 

[sib]

Does the new HC and offensive scheme not temper some of these lofty projections? It does for me in this instance. LJ will be great this year, but not all-world, imo.

Rush Yds: 1500

Rush Tds: 17

Recs: 35

Rec Yds: 325

Rec Tds: 1

If anything, those projections should be bumped up with the new HC:Larry Johnson may be even busier next season, as new coach Herm Edwards told the team's official website the Chiefs may run the ball more in 2006. "I'm not saying we're going to just exclusively run the ball, but if you look at us last year we threw about 523 passes and ran the ball about 505 times, somewhere in that vicinity," Edwards said in a Q&A session on the team's website. "I anticipate if we're playing with a lead, we're going to run the ball more than we did last year and not worry about continuing to try and get a 17 point lead. I think we have a great offensive line, we've got a heck of a running back and there's going to be times when we need to pound it a little bit more."

 

[Wingnut]

Edwards said in a Q&A session on the team's website. "I anticipate if we're playing with a lead, we're going to run the ball more than we did last year and not worry about continuing to try and get a 17 point lead. I think we have a great offensive line, we've got a heck of a running back and there's going to be times when we need to pound it a little bit more."

Translation: Once we have the lead, a fresh Priest will come in and get lots of garbage stats while the LJ owners stick their heads in ovens across the globe.

 

[rzrback77]

I see a huge year for Larry Johnson, not quite up to last half of 05, but very, very good.

I give him 417 carries for 2077 yards and 24 TDs, adding 47 catches for 417 yards and 3 TDs. #1 choice in redraft easily.

 

[Escalade]

Is it bad to have LJ taking up your 8th draft position as a keeper in the draft?

27

 

[Chase Stuart]

I see a huge year for Larry Johnson, not quite up to last half of 05, but very, very good.

I give him 417 carries for 2077 yards and 24 TDs, adding 47 catches for 417 yards and 3 TDs. #1 choice in redraft easily.

After such a season season LJ would rank on the single season all time lists:Yards from Scrimmage: 1st

Rushes: 1st

Rushing Yards: 2nd

Touches: 2nd

Total TDs: T-2nd

Rushing TDs: T-4th