Player Spotlight: Lee Evans (2 Viewers)

[Jason Wood]

[SIZE=14pt]2006 Player Spotlight Series[/SIZE]

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

[SIZE=14pt]Thread Topic: Lee Evans, WR, Buffalo Bills[/SIZE]

Player Page Link: Lee Evans Player Page

Each article will include:

[*]Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member

[*]Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads

[*]FBG Projections

[*]Consensus Member Projections

[SIZE=14pt]The Rules[/SIZE]

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

[*]Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player

[*]Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"

[*]To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the player

Projections should include (at a minimum):

[*]For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs

[*]For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[*]For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

[SIZE=14pt]Best of Luck and ENJOY![/SIZE]

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

 

[Rev]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

paleeeez80-1100-11

 

[The Finist]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

paleeeez80-1100-11

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lossman @ QB.......... My numbers mirror Knowledge Reigns Supreme.

 

[P Boy]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

paleeeez80-1100-11

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lossman @ QB.......... My numbers mirror Knowledge Reigns Supreme.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Would your opinion change if Holcombe wins the job? He's had some pretty big games throwing the ball.I don't think BUF sticks with Losman if he puts up dismal enough numbers not to get Evans past 800 yds as the definitive #1 WR.

The 80/1100/11 sounds pretty solid to me.

 

[FUBAR]

#1 WR in Buffalo, needs a better QB, but even with the garbage they call QBs

80/1200/10

 

[Jason Wood]

I wouldn't bank on JP Losman starting, particularly if he struggles. Craig Nall reminds me a lot of Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselbeck in that he's a backup with little playing experience who quietly gets a chance to take over a team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nall end up at the helm.

 

[Tommy Collins]

Can't say it'll be Nall or Losman but I know it won't be Holcomb. For a team that is rebuilding, throwing a 33 year old journeymen QB out there who doesn't throw more than 15 yards very often doesn't make sense for a team that is gearing for the future.

70 receptions for 1050 yards and 9 TDs

 

[Q-Bert]

I am a huge fan of Lee Evans. I watched nearly everyone of his college games and was at his first game back after his knee injury. He had a 99 yard touchdown catch where he just flat out smoked the entire defense. But, with all that being said I think some of the projections in this thread are crazy. The Bills offense isn't good. Their quarterbacks are old and mediocre or young and unproven. Not good options. I'm not sure that Moulds leaving is a good thing. It may be difficult for Evans to have to shoulder so much of the burden at WR this year. I believe I am being optimistic in my projections of:

60 Receptions

960 Yards

8 Touchdowns

Let's save this 1200 yard and 11 touchdown talk for a few years down the line when the Bills QB situation is a bit less unsettled.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Lee Evans enters his 3rd year as a NFL wide receiver. The Buffalo passing game was not that good last year and will only be slightly improved this year. The big change for Evans will be taking over the No. 1 receiver spot.

I think it's very realistic that he catches 65 balls as a No.1 and at 15 yards per catch, that's 975 yards. He's actually very good at finding the endzone for the amount of receptions he does get, so I expect a minimum of 9.

65 receptions for 975 yards and 9 td's

 

[The Finist]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

paleeeez80-1100-11

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Lossman @ QB.......... My numbers mirror Knowledge Reigns Supreme.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Would your opinion change if Holcombe wins the job? He's had some pretty big games throwing the ball.I don't think BUF sticks with Losman if he puts up dismal enough numbers not to get Evans past 800 yds as the definitive #1 WR.

The 80/1100/11 sounds pretty solid to me.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

My oppinion wouldnt change to much. Id give him a slight bump up with Holcomb. I really dont see Evans as a double digit TD receiver in that offense.

 

[SaintArnold]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's exactly what I'd project. I see no compelling reason to upgrade Evans over the last two years.

 

[Rounders]

80/1150/11

Breakout year for Mr. Evans

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's exactly what I'd project. I see no compelling reason to upgrade Evans over the last two years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I see a couple reasons to upgrade him:Increased experience

Increased role in offense

Increased experience of QB

Steve Fairchild maybe?

I see a couple reasons to downgrade him:

Making the switch from #2 (or #1.5) to #1 WR.

Still the same players they put on the field last year.

**** Jauron

It's probably likely he will get over 50 catches, but how many more? 60? 70? 80? This could turn out like those Browns teams from a few years ago when the top guy catches 60 and the next guy gets 50 and another guy gets 40.

He has upside, but I'm not thrilled with the guy heading into 2006. One of those guys that I wouldn't be surprised what he did no matter what, so I won't reach for him early or shun him either. If he's still on the board in the late 20s of WRs, that's not a bad pick.

 

[P Boy]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's exactly what I'd project. I see no compelling reason to upgrade Evans over the last two years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If that's true, who's taking all of Moulds catches & TDs, since he's not there anymore? Or are you assuming that his production will not be picked up by anyone?That means you're expecting 2000 yds passing & 14 passing TDs for the entire season for BUF?

 

[Keys Myaths]

Evans will produce. He has to, since there's nobody else there TO produce.

He's not going to be a top 2 WR, but he's going to be a great fantasy value.

He'll have 65 receptions, 980 yards, and 10 TD.

 

[Rev]

80/1150/11

Breakout year for Mr. Evans

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Exactly.

 

[SaintArnold]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

That's exactly what I'd project. I see no compelling reason to upgrade Evans over the last two years.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

If that's true, who's taking all of Moulds catches & TDs, since he's not there anymore? Or are you assuming that his production will not be picked up by anyone?That means you're expecting 2000 yds passing & 14 passing TDs for the entire season for BUF?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Evans very close to 50/800/8 in 2004 and 2005. I see no big changes that cause me to change that projection. You cite Moulds's departure as a reason for an upgrade, but I could argue this just means that Evans will face more coverage, since he'll be the lone receiving threat.Honestly, I do think there is some upside- Evans seemed to have chemistry with Losman, so if (*BIG* IF) Losman develops, then Evans numbers could take off. I'm not betting on it, though.

 

[The Man Who Met Andy Griffith]

I have been targeting Evans in every dynasty league for the last few years. I love his talent, and he could eventually have top 3 numbers. 4.3 speed, smooth routes, phenomenal hands, great VJ, what's not to like?

He plays for Buffalo. His QB is JP Losman, Kelly Holcomb or Craig Nall (unknown quantity). His coach is **** Jauron, a guy whose 16-play opening script on offense is "run, run, run, punt (X 4)". This is a team that was putrid on offense last year, and they lose Moulds and gain Jauron. He will draw constant double-teams.

I project a career-best 60-900-5 :(

 

[SSOG]

I like Lee Evans, and view him as the anti-Chris Chambers. Everyone talks about how Chambers produces with junk at QB, but Evans has very quietly done the same exact thing.

They have EERILY similar numbers to this point in their career. As a rookie, their numbers were 48/883/7 and 48/843/9. As a sophomore, the numbers were 52/734/3 and 48/743/7. Really really similar... but, while I'm always down on Chambers, I'm really high on Evans. Why? Three reasons.

Reason #1: Evans is entering his 3rd season to Chambers' 6th. I don't believe in that magical "third season = WR breakout" junk, but I do believe that, with 3 fewer seasons played, Evans has a lot more room to grow than Chambers does.

Reason #2: Targets. Through week 16, Chambers had 159 targets- best in the league. Evans had 86- 42nd in the league. With Moulds out of town, I'm predicting that one of those numbers has nowhere to go but up, and the other has nowhere to go but down. I'll let you guess which one is which.

Reason #3: Catch percentage. In my mind, this is the hallmark of the elite WR. Go back and look at history- all of the best fantasy WRs have sterling catch percentages (except for TO some seasons, but he always made up for it with excellent red-zone presence). I'm talking 60+% catch percentages. Chris Chambers' career high catch% is 53%... AS A ROOKIE. He hasn't topped 50% since. Lee Evans' best catch percentages is 64% as a rookie. Even last year with Losman throwing to him (I'd contend that a rookie Losman is worse than any QB Chambers has ever played with), Evans maintained a 53% catch percentage.

According to the current FBG rankings, Chris Chambers is WR11 and Lee Evans is WR22. Personally, I think they got the two rankings reversed. I think Lee Evans presents fantastic value on draft day because people will be too low on his QB situation and too quick to jump on the trendy WRs of the week. The numbers don't lie.

 

[Gopher State]

60/950/8 TD's

No QB, and now Mr.Evans gets 100 percent of the double teams in Buffalo, as he is the clear #1 guy.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I like Lee Evans, and view him as the anti-Chris Chambers. Everyone talks about how Chambers produces with junk at QB, but Evans has very quietly done the same exact thing. They have EERILY similar numbers to this point in their career.

You stole this right out of my brain. I was thinking the EXACT same thing yesterday.

Reason #3: Catch percentage. In my mind, this is the hallmark of the elite WR. Go back and look at history- all of the best fantasy WRs have sterling catch percentages (except for TO some seasons, but he always made up for it with excellent red-zone presence). I'm talking 60+% catch percentages. Chris Chambers' career high catch% is 53%... AS A ROOKIE. He hasn't topped 50% since. Lee Evans' best catch percentages is 64% as a rookie. Even last year with Losman throwing to him (I'd contend that a rookie Losman is worse than any QB Chambers has ever played with), Evans maintained a 53% catch percentage.

When I was looking at those same stats, I considered Lee Evans, but then had to account for the fact that he put up that catch percentage (which is low btw) as the #2 WR on his team. I've been meaning to look at how well catch% carries over with an increased role in the offense. Being that I'm lazy.. I haven't. Have you by any chance?Evans put up a good catch% as a rookie, but Moulds was more productive that year as well. Moulds has a less productive year, and Lee Evans catch% plummeted. Coincidence?

 

[sacked4loss]

who else is going to catch the ball. 80 rec. 1150yards 10tds

 

[SSOG]

Reason #3: Catch percentage. In my mind, this is the hallmark of the elite WR. Go back and look at history- all of the best fantasy WRs have sterling catch percentages (except for TO some seasons, but he always made up for it with excellent red-zone presence). I'm talking 60+% catch percentages. Chris Chambers' career high catch% is 53%... AS A ROOKIE. He hasn't topped 50% since. Lee Evans' best catch percentages is 64% as a rookie. Even last year with Losman throwing to him (I'd contend that a rookie Losman is worse than any QB Chambers has ever played with), Evans maintained a 53% catch percentage.

When I was looking at those same stats, I considered Lee Evans, but then had to account for the fact that he put up that catch percentage (which is low btw) as the #2 WR on his team. I've been meaning to look at how well catch% carries over with an increased role in the offense. Being that I'm lazy.. I haven't. Have you by any chance?Evans put up a good catch% as a rookie, but Moulds was more productive that year as well. Moulds has a less productive year, and Lee Evans catch% plummeted. Coincidence?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think it's a Losmanincidence. Moulds' drop in production was tied to J.P Losman... and Evans' drop in catch% wasn't tied to Mould's drop in production, it was also tied to J.P. Losman. Yes, moving him to WR1 will possibly negatively impact his catch% (I don't think it will: read below for more)... but the maturation of J.P. Losman will probably positive impact his catch%. Even if his catch% stays the same... if he keeps that catch% and those averages, but his targets go up to 120 (not unreasonable, because who else is on the team?), then his numbers will increase 33%.As for the catch% when moving from WR2 to WR1... here are a couple of the more recent examples of WRs making that transition, as well as their year-by-year catch%.

Santana Moss:

11.8% (not a typo), 59%, 63%, 58%, 63%.

Steve Smith:

50%, 56%, 62%, (year lost to injury), 69%

Muhsin Muhammed:

54%, 58%, 54%, 58%, 47% (Kyle Orton)

Laveranues Coles:

52.4%, 57.3%, 66%, 52% (playing injured), 54%, 56%

If you can't tell which years they were WR1s and which years they were WR2s, then I'm not going to, either.

Okay, okay, I'll tell. As near as I can figure, Coles' first season as a WR1 was the 66%. Moss' first season as a WR1 was the first 63%. Steve Smith's first season as a WR1 was the 62%. Muhammed was a WR1 in his two 58% seasons, as well as his 47% season (which I blame entirely on Orton, who was BRUTAL, and anticipate a nice rebound in this season). As you can see, all 4 guys saw their catch% go UP in their first season as a WR1.

Moral of the story: I expect Evans' catch% to rebound a little bit (as well as Muhammed's). Outside of Peerless Price, I didn't notice anyone whose catch% drastically (slightly, for that matter) dropped when they went from WR2 to WR1.

I could theorize as to why that was. I could speculate that Price saw his role in the offense change, so instead of catching a lot of balls doing what he was good at (running downfield), he was now asked to do something he WASN'T good at (running good routes), and his catch% suffered. With Evans, that shouldn't be a huge problem, since he was always more than just a deep threat in that offense. As to why Smith, Moss, and Muhammed actually saw their catch% *RISE* when they became WR1s... who knows. Maybe it's just that if the ball gets anywhere near them, they catch it. Tougher coverage might affect targets more than it actually affects catch%. I don't exactly know.

 

[OldMilwaukee]

Reason #3: Catch percentage. In my mind, this is the hallmark of the elite WR. Go back and look at history- all of the best fantasy WRs have sterling catch percentages (except for TO some seasons, but he always made up for it with excellent red-zone presence). I'm talking 60+% catch percentages. Chris Chambers' career high catch% is 53%... AS A ROOKIE. He hasn't topped 50% since. Lee Evans' best catch percentages is 64% as a rookie. Even last year with Losman throwing to him (I'd contend that a rookie Losman is worse than any QB Chambers has ever played with), Evans maintained a 53% catch percentage.

When I was looking at those same stats, I considered Lee Evans, but then had to account for the fact that he put up that catch percentage (which is low btw) as the #2 WR on his team. I've been meaning to look at how well catch% carries over with an increased role in the offense. Being that I'm lazy.. I haven't. Have you by any chance?Evans put up a good catch% as a rookie, but Moulds was more productive that year as well. Moulds has a less productive year, and Lee Evans catch% plummeted. Coincidence?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think it's a Losmanincidence. Moulds' drop in production was tied to J.P Losman... and Evans' drop in catch% wasn't tied to Mould's drop in production, it was also tied to J.P. Losman. Yes, moving him to WR1 will possibly negatively impact his catch% (I don't think it will: read below for more)... but the maturation of J.P. Losman will probably positive impact his catch%. Even if his catch% stays the same... if he keeps that catch% and those averages, but his targets go up to 120 (not unreasonable, because who else is on the team?), then his numbers will increase 33%.As for the catch% when moving from WR2 to WR1... here are a couple of the more recent examples of WRs making that transition, as well as their year-by-year catch%.

Santana Moss:

11.8% (not a typo), 59%, 63%, 58%, 63%.

Steve Smith:

50%, 56%, 62%, (year lost to injury), 69%

Muhsin Muhammed:

54%, 58%, 54%, 58%, 47% (Kyle Orton)

Laveranues Coles:

52.4%, 57.3%, 66%, 52% (playing injured), 54%, 56%

If you can't tell which years they were WR1s and which years they were WR2s, then I'm not going to, either.

Okay, okay, I'll tell. As near as I can figure, Coles' first season as a WR1 was the 66%. Moss' first season as a WR1 was the first 63%. Steve Smith's first season as a WR1 was the 62%. Muhammed was a WR1 in his two 58% seasons, as well as his 47% season (which I blame entirely on Orton, who was BRUTAL, and anticipate a nice rebound in this season). As you can see, all 4 guys saw their catch% go UP in their first season as a WR1.

Moral of the story: I expect Evans' catch% to rebound a little bit (as well as Muhammed's). Outside of Peerless Price, I didn't notice anyone whose catch% drastically (slightly, for that matter) dropped when they went from WR2 to WR1.

I could theorize as to why that was. I could speculate that Price saw his role in the offense change, so instead of catching a lot of balls doing what he was good at (running downfield), he was now asked to do something he WASN'T good at (running good routes), and his catch% suffered. With Evans, that shouldn't be a huge problem, since he was always more than just a deep threat in that offense. As to why Smith, Moss, and Muhammed actually saw their catch% *RISE* when they became WR1s... who knows. Maybe it's just that if the ball gets anywhere near them, they catch it. Tougher coverage might affect targets more than it actually affects catch%. I don't exactly know.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Losman and Evan's.....both third year pro's....both 25 years old.......both love the long ball.

72 rec, 1160 yds 9 TD's

 

[Aaron Rudnicki]

I could speculate that Price saw his role in the offense change, so instead of catching a lot of balls doing what he was good at (running downfield), he was now asked to do something he WASN'T good at (running good routes), and his catch% suffered.

Price was regarded as an excellent route runner when he left Buffalo. His problems in Atlanta stemmed from several factors, IMO:#1 Vick was not an accurate QB (Evans might have a similar problem in Buffalo with Losman)#2 Price was not a particularly strong or physical WR so he had difficulty beating press coverage. (Evans shouldn't have this problem as he is quite strong)#3 Price is more of a straight-line runner and doesn't have elite change of direction skills to help him create separation and make plays after the catch. This also makes it tougher to beat double teams. (Evans shouldn't have this problem as he can stop and start with the best of them, and he is very difficult to tackle in the open field).#4 Price reportedly had vision problems which he refused to get surgically corrected b/c he thought it posed too much risk. If your vision isn't great, it's obviously going to make catching a ball very difficult. (Evans has no vision problems that I'm aware of).I also believe that Evans has a much greater work ethic and desire to be great so he will spend time in the film room and put in extra time to give himself the best chance to succeed. I never got that impression with Price at all.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Reason #3: Catch percentage. In my mind, this is the hallmark of the elite WR. Go back and look at history- all of the best fantasy WRs have sterling catch percentages (except for TO some seasons, but he always made up for it with excellent red-zone presence). I'm talking 60+% catch percentages. Chris Chambers' career high catch% is 53%... AS A ROOKIE. He hasn't topped 50% since. Lee Evans' best catch percentages is 64% as a rookie. Even last year with Losman throwing to him (I'd contend that a rookie Losman is worse than any QB Chambers has ever played with), Evans maintained a 53% catch percentage.

When I was looking at those same stats, I considered Lee Evans, but then had to account for the fact that he put up that catch percentage (which is low btw) as the #2 WR on his team. I've been meaning to look at how well catch% carries over with an increased role in the offense. Being that I'm lazy.. I haven't. Have you by any chance?Evans put up a good catch% as a rookie, but Moulds was more productive that year as well. Moulds has a less productive year, and Lee Evans catch% plummeted. Coincidence?

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

I don't think it's a coincidence at all. I think it's a Losmanincidence. Moulds' drop in production was tied to J.P Losman... and Evans' drop in catch% wasn't tied to Mould's drop in production, it was also tied to J.P. Losman. Yes, moving him to WR1 will possibly negatively impact his catch% (I don't think it will: read below for more)... but the maturation of J.P. Losman will probably positive impact his catch%. Even if his catch% stays the same... if he keeps that catch% and those averages, but his targets go up to 120 (not unreasonable, because who else is on the team?), then his numbers will increase 33%.As for the catch% when moving from WR2 to WR1... here are a couple of the more recent examples of WRs making that transition, as well as their year-by-year catch%.

Santana Moss:

11.8% (not a typo), 59%, 63%, 58%, 63%.

Steve Smith:

50%, 56%, 62%, (year lost to injury), 69%

Muhsin Muhammed:

54%, 58%, 54%, 58%, 47% (Kyle Orton)

Laveranues Coles:

52.4%, 57.3%, 66%, 52% (playing injured), 54%, 56%

If you can't tell which years they were WR1s and which years they were WR2s, then I'm not going to, either.

Okay, okay, I'll tell. As near as I can figure, Coles' first season as a WR1 was the 66%. Moss' first season as a WR1 was the first 63%. Steve Smith's first season as a WR1 was the 62%. Muhammed was a WR1 in his two 58% seasons, as well as his 47% season (which I blame entirely on Orton, who was BRUTAL, and anticipate a nice rebound in this season). As you can see, all 4 guys saw their catch% go UP in their first season as a WR1.

Moral of the story: I expect Evans' catch% to rebound a little bit (as well as Muhammed's). Outside of Peerless Price, I didn't notice anyone whose catch% drastically (slightly, for that matter) dropped when they went from WR2 to WR1.

I could theorize as to why that was. I could speculate that Price saw his role in the offense change, so instead of catching a lot of balls doing what he was good at (running downfield), he was now asked to do something he WASN'T good at (running good routes), and his catch% suffered. With Evans, that shouldn't be a huge problem, since he was always more than just a deep threat in that offense. As to why Smith, Moss, and Muhammed actually saw their catch% *RISE* when they became WR1s... who knows. Maybe it's just that if the ball gets anywhere near them, they catch it. Tougher coverage might affect targets more than it actually affects catch%. I don't exactly know.

<{POST_SNAPBACK}>

Based on your comments, I've given him a small boost in my rankings. Not sure if he'll keep up the yards/TD ratio of 99 as the #1 WR though That's Randy Moss/TO/Harrison type numbers there. Also had to drop his YPR, as #1 guys very rarely average 16+. That makes him a #3 WR with upside on my list.

 

[Joe T]

I wouldn't bank on JP Losman starting, particularly if he struggles. Craig Nall reminds me a lot of Jake Delhomme and Matt Hasselbeck in that he's a backup with little playing experience who quietly gets a chance to take over a team. I wouldn't be surprised to see Nall end up at the helm.

Craig Nall didn't start at LSU. The Bills are in bad shape if they are looking to Nall to save the day.

with the loss of Moulds and a bad QB and a bad o-line, prospects are low for Evans. I'd give him little chance of improving on last years numbers.

I'll project him at 50/658/4... but if I were betting, I'd take the under.

 

[Joe T]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

That's exactly what I'd project. I see no compelling reason to upgrade Evans over the last two years.

If that's true, who's taking all of Moulds catches & TDs, since he's not there anymore? Or are you assuming that his production will not be picked up by anyone?That means you're expecting 2000 yds passing & 14 passing TDs for the entire season for BUF?

Moulds loss will break down this way:2005Moulds = 81/816/4

65% of those stats will disappear... ie the passing game for the bills will get worse.

The other 35% that remains will be spread between the new #2 WR or (WR's), the TE, and the RB.

This happens all the time... yet every year people try to give away a departed player's yards like they are a given.

 

[Joe T]

Evans will produce.  He has to, since there's nobody else there TO produce.

He's not going to be a top 2 WR, but he's going to be a great fantasy value.

He'll have 65 receptions, 980 yards, and 10 TD.

I'm beginning to think this is the greatest myth in FF right now.

 

[Joe T]

who else is going to catch the ball. 80 rec. 1150yards 10tds

 

[-OZ-]

One thing I like a lot about Lee Evans. When you do your projections, do you factor in "wost case scenerio"? Meaning, aside from the individual player being injured or losing his mind, what happens if his surrounding talent gets injured? For some, this would be catastrophic (imagine Rivers without LT or Gates; Palmer without CJ, etc.) for Evans, he's living it and producing.

I see a fair improvement from last year's 48/743/7, so: 60/850/8

 

[SSOG]

Craig Nall didn't start at LSU.

The Bills are in bad shape if they are looking to Nall to save the day.

with the loss of Moulds and a bad QB and a bad o-line, prospects are low for Evans. I'd give him little chance of improving on last years numbers.

I'll project him at 50/658/4... but if I were betting, I'd take the under.

That's just crazy talk. Here's a list of the worst WR1s from last season (all numbers pro-rated over 16 games):B.Lloyd- 48/733/5

L. Coles- 73/845/5

M.Muhammed- 68/800/4

A. Johnson- 78/847/2

E. Moulds- 86/870/4

B. Finneran- 60/611/2

You're projecting that Lee Evans will underproduce every single WR1 last year except for Finneran? You're making this projection despite the fact that Evans has never had below 48 catches, 743 yards, or 7 TDs? You're projecting his ypc to drop more than 2 yards from last seasons and more than 3 yards from his career average?

I would take that bet all day long. I would lay all kinds of money that, unless he gets injured, Evans will outperform those numbers. EASY.

I'm having a hard time trying to decide if this is some sort of fishing trip, because saying you'd bet the UNDER on those numbers just seems a little bit preposterous to me.

 

[Gandalf]

Oz said it best (I'll piggyback those projections)... and for those in dynasty leagues, just watch Evan's stock skyrocket when the Bills get a QB next year.

60/850/8

 

[David Yudkin]

who else is going to catch the ball. 80 rec. 1150yards 10tds

OK, I'll throw this out as a comparison . . .How is this situation any different than Branch in N.E. (except the Pats have Brady at QB and the Bills have . . . somebody at QB)? Yet if we look at the Branch PS, many people have Branch's numbers staying the same or even dipping.

 

[Gandalf]

who else is going to catch the ball. 80 rec. 1150yards 10tds

OK, I'll throw this out as a comparison . . .How is this situation any different than Branch in N.E. (except the Pats have Brady at QB and the Bills have . . . somebody at QB)? Yet if we look at the Branch PS, many people have Branch's numbers staying the same or even dipping.

I don't like the "somebody has to catch the ball argument" because I'm not convinced it holds. Recent memory has me remembering the draft Nate Burleson argument last year. That said, one difference I see is that New England's offense and Tom Brady intentionally spread the ball around to a number of WRs... and sometimes linebackers. I'm considering drafting Mike Vrabel this year as my backup TE.

 

[Banger]

who else is going to catch the ball. 80 rec. 1150yards 10tds

OK, I'll throw this out as a comparison . . .How is this situation any different than Branch in N.E. (except the Pats have Brady at QB and the Bills have . . . somebody at QB)? Yet if we look at the Branch PS, many people have Branch's numbers staying the same or even dipping.

NE has two legit TE's and other decent wr's. NE's offense seems to be based around the concept of taking what the defense gives them and thus they have a new gameplan with new goto guys each week. Buff doesn't have the personnel or QB to employ that type of gameplan and I think the comparison is apple/oranges.

 

[Holy Schneikes]

With very little commenting...

50 receptions

800 yards

8 TDs

That's exactly what I'd project. I see no compelling reason to upgrade Evans over the last two years.

If that's true, who's taking all of Moulds catches & TDs, since he's not there anymore? Or are you assuming that his production will not be picked up by anyone?That means you're expecting 2000 yds passing & 14 passing TDs for the entire season for BUF?

Moulds loss will break down this way:2005Moulds = 81/816/4

65% of those stats will disappear... ie the passing game for the bills will get worse.

The other 35% that remains will be spread between the new #2 WR or (WR's), the TE, and the RB.

This happens all the time... yet every year people try to give away a departed player's yards like they are a given.

According to your "projections", that would put the Bills at 2321 yards passing, which in most years would put them well behind the last place team for the year. In the last 5 years, only two teams have passed for less than 2400 yards, both in 2005 (the woefull Bears and the outrageously awful 9ers).Realistically, 2600 yards will be about as bad as it gets, and a more realistic but still quite low number would be about 3000 yards. A nice chunk of those yards will go to Evans who is by far the best receiver on the team.

As usual, you take a decent point and exaggerate it to the point of absurdity.

Evans will put up 1000 yards and 9 TDs fairly easily.

 

[Banger]

Evans will produce.  He has to, since there's nobody else there TO produce.

He's not going to be a top 2 WR, but he's going to be a great fantasy value.

He'll have 65 receptions, 980 yards, and 10 TD.

I'm beginning to think this is the greatest myth in FF right now.

agreed, people are using the same logic in the Jax wr projection threads. Those guys (Moulds/J. Smith) were #1 wr for a reason, they were excellent, smart wr's. Who's to say Evans doesn't go the way of Peerless Price? I'm not suggesting he will because I think he's got better skills than Price. 60-900-8

 

[Joe T]

Moulds loss will break down this way:

2005Moulds = 81/816/4

65% of those stats will disappear... ie the passing game for the bills will get worse.

The other 35% that remains will be spread between the new #2 WR or (WR's), the TE, and the RB.

This happens all the time... yet every year people try to give away a departed player's yards like they are a given.

According to your "projections", that would put the Bills at 2321 yards passing, which in most years would put them well behind the last place team for the year. In the last 5 years, only two teams have passed for less than 2400 yards, both in 2005 (the woefull Bears and the outrageously awful 9ers).Realistically, 2600 yards will be about as bad as it gets, and a more realistic but still quite low number would be about 3000 yards. A nice chunk of those yards will go to Evans who is by far the best receiver on the team.

As usual, you take a decent point and exaggerate it to the point of absurdity.

Evans will put up 1000 yards and 9 TDs fairly easily.

I've done a lot of research on this topic. You are right in that 2321 might be too low but it is not so uncommon that it is impossible. Both the Bears and Niners last year were at 2201 or lower. The Texans threw for a measly 2661 last season. This Bills last year only threw for 2852.

If you look back at all the cases through history, most of the time when you have a good WR leave, passing stats drop for that team the following year. This is very logical. Add that to the fact that when there is a sub-par QB involved the numbers get even worse.

To say realistic number for the Bills is 3,000 yards passing makes me . That would be a huge year for them.

I'm going to say their range next year is between 2300 and 2600 pretty safely.

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

I'm going to say their range next year is between 2300 and 2600 pretty safely.

Up next is a study on per game WR numbers on teams that throw for 2600 yards or less?

 

[Rev]

Don't underestimate what Evans can do as the Bills number one. He'll get plenty of targets and has already demonstrated that he can take it to the house every whenever he touches the ball. He'll certainly need to learn how to play while being the guy defenses are trying to shut down, but I expect him to develop rapidly into a solid fantasy producer:

75/1100/9

 

[David Yudkin]

who else is going to catch the ball. 80 rec. 1150yards 10tds

OK, I'll throw this out as a comparison . . .How is this situation any different than Branch in N.E. (except the Pats have Brady at QB and the Bills have . . . somebody at QB)? Yet if we look at the Branch PS, many people have Branch's numbers staying the same or even dipping.

NE has two legit TE's and other decent wr's. NE's offense seems to be based around the concept of taking what the defense gives them and thus they have a new gameplan with new goto guys each week. Buff doesn't have the personnel or QB to employ that type of gameplan and I think the comparison is apple/oranges.

NE has Branch, Troy Brown (who hasn't had more than 40 receptions since 2002), Reche Caldwell (career high of 28 receptions)--AND NO OTHER WR WITH MORE THAN 3 CAREER RECEPTIONS. Patriot receivers had 211 total receptions last year. Unless a ton of them get offloaded to TE, get converted to rushing attempts, go to completely unproven WR, or evaporate into thin air, I think Branch stands a better chance of having the numbers that some are projecting for Evans. (I'm not saying that by default the Pats WR corps has to have 211 receptions again.)

I don't disagree that NE TEs > BUF TE, but the Pats had almost 1,500 more passing yards than the Bills did last year.

With Moulds gone, who else do defenders really have to cover or double team? Price? Davis? Parrish? Reed? Until the Bills can establish that they have other options that mandate tight coverage, IMO Evans will struggle some.

Like JoeT likes to say, someone doesn't HAVE to get the numbers that someone else got. IMO, a % of the production Moulds got will be shared amoung many players both rushing and receiving.

I have a hard time thinking that Evans will get 10-12 TD when the team only had 18 passing TD on the season last year.

 

[SSOG]

Moulds loss will break down this way:

2005Moulds = 81/816/4

65% of those stats will disappear... ie the passing game for the bills will get worse.

The other 35% that remains will be spread between the new #2 WR or (WR's), the TE, and the RB.

This happens all the time... yet every year people try to give away a departed player's yards like they are a given.

According to your "projections", that would put the Bills at 2321 yards passing, which in most years would put them well behind the last place team for the year. In the last 5 years, only two teams have passed for less than 2400 yards, both in 2005 (the woefull Bears and the outrageously awful 9ers).Realistically, 2600 yards will be about as bad as it gets, and a more realistic but still quite low number would be about 3000 yards. A nice chunk of those yards will go to Evans who is by far the best receiver on the team.

As usual, you take a decent point and exaggerate it to the point of absurdity.

Evans will put up 1000 yards and 9 TDs fairly easily.

I've done a lot of research on this topic. You are right in that 2321 might be too low but it is not so uncommon that it is impossible. Both the Bears and Niners last year were at 2201 or lower. The Texans threw for a measly 2661 last season. This Bills last year only threw for 2852.

If you look back at all the cases through history, most of the time when you have a good WR leave, passing stats drop for that team the following year. This is very logical. Add that to the fact that when there is a sub-par QB involved the numbers get even worse.

To say realistic number for the Bills is 3,000 yards passing makes me . That would be a huge year for them.

I'm going to say their range next year is between 2300 and 2600 pretty safely.

As you said, both the Bears and Niners were at 2201 yards passing or lower. Who were the #1s for those teams? Oh yeah.B.Lloyd- 48/733/5

M.Muhammed- 68/800/4

So in other words, Lee Evans is a better player than Brandon Lloyd, will have a better QB than Alex Smith, will play for a team that passes for more yards than San Francisco, has a worse WR2 opposite him than Arnaz Battle was, has no TE anywhere near the level of an Eric Johnson, and yet somehow he will get UNDER 50/658/4 (which are already noticably worse numbers than B.Lloyd put up last season)?

I agree with Schneikes. You've taken some decent points and then exaggerated them to the point of absurdity.

 

[RabidRabbit]

QB sucks.

Back up QB sucks.

McGahee will get the ball 5 yards in and closer.

Lee Evans -- remember A. Johnson 2 years ago.

Hype machines always blow.

70/990/8

 

[SSOG]

QB sucks.

Back up QB sucks.

McGahee will get the ball 5 yards in and closer.

Lee Evans -- remember A. Johnson 2 years ago.

Hype machines always blow.

70/990/8

I actually really like your numbers. I realize I haven't put down any numbers yet, so put me down for a 60/900/8.

 

[Neo]

Any others want to gamble on this now that we've seen a bit in preseason.

My guess is:

80 catches, 1150 yards and 10 TD's.

 

[wannabee]

65/1000/10

 

[Da Guru]

Stop writing about Lee Evans!!!

 

[jestertj]

I love this guy this season as a #1. I see him somewhere between 80-90 catches with just over 1000 yards and 9 scores. Throw in five 100 yard games and he should start most weeks.