Player Spotlight: Marc Bulger (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marc Bulger, QB, St. Louis Rams

Player Page Link: Marc Bulger Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Musesboy]

Marc Bulger is capable of being the number one QB in the league in terms of fantasy production. He has averaged 20.3 points per game in his 44 games, but is yet to play a full 16 game season. He suffered injury last year when attempting a tackle and leading with his throwing shoulder. Hopefully he will learn from that.

With Mike Martz departing, the new HC will be Scott Linehan. Martz is considered by many to be an offensive genius, and the Rams favored the passing game while he was in charge. Linehan was the offensive coordinator for Minnesota and they finished 9th, 3rd and then 1st in passing yardage while he was there. He then spent 2005 in Miami and they enjoyed their first top twenty ranking in passing yardage since Dan Marino retired. Gus Frerotte was Miami's QB last year and he hadn't started more than six games since 1997. Frerotte has followed Linehan to St. Louis in a backup role. So while I am noting the departure of Martz, I am not too concerned about the prospects of the Rams' passing game under Linehan.

Torry Holt missed two games last year while Isaac Bruce missed five. Kevin Curtis emerged in Bruce's absence. I still believe that Bruce has something left. He will be 34 in November but enjoyed a good season in 2004. I am confident that Curtis will step up if Bruce does suffer another injury.

So the weapons are all there for Bulger. OC Greg Olson is working on ways to protect Bulger this season. He will also be given the opportunity to audible in order to avoid some of the more dangerous situations. Martz did not give him that option.

One of the reasons that the Rams have produced good fantasy options in recent years is the ineffective play of the defense. That should continue despite the addition of Witherspoon at MLB. They added Tye Hill in the draft to compete at CB, but lost Archuleta to the Redskins. The combination of an aggressive passing game, very good receiving options, and a poor defense, should all increase the chance that the Rams will play in a number of high scoring games again this year.

The biggest question is not Bulger's ability or situation, it's whether he can stay on the field. Linehan also wants Steven Jackson to run the ball up to 25 times per game. While I am sure he wants that, it's very unlikely to happen on a regular basis. Holt is in his prime and the other receivers compliment him well.

This might actually be the year that Bulger plays 16 games, even if he reduces his production per game slightly in order to do so. The Rams' schedule looks very appealing with two games against SF, SEA and ARI and others against GB, DET, SD, KC, and OAK. Expect a slight dip in production when Bulger plays on the road. He has a TD/INT ratio of over 2:1 at home but has thrown 27 TDs to 30 INTs when on the road. He averages 2.6 points per game less in road games but it's still 18.9 and worthy of a fantasy starter.

I would consider the unusual strategy of handcuffing Bulger and Frerotte. The Rams look to have a potent offense and Frerotte knows Linehan's system and played in it last year. If Bulger does get hurt again, the Rams wouldn't lose too much production with Frerotte at QB.

Prediction

343/520 4050 yards 25 TDs 20 INTs

20 rushes 70 yards 1 TD

 

[Quez]

I think Marinelli/ Martz are going to Bulger week 4.

 

[rzrback77]

Bulger has been an awesome fantasy QB to have in your lineup over the past three years. He has been a very consistent score, WHEN he is in the game. I would say that he is one of the most frustrating QBs due to the amount of scoring he gives when he plays AND the number of games that he sits on both the Rams and your fantasy team's bench.

Under no circumstances should you consider Bulger as your fantsy QB, without a back-up plan. Over the past four seasons he had produced the following:

02 - 7 games 138 comp on 214 att for 1826 yds 14 TDs and 6 Ints

03- 15 games 336 comp on 532 att for 3845 yds 22 TDs and 22 Ints

04 - 14 games 321 comp on 485 att for 3964 yds 21 TDs and 14 Ints

05 - 8 games 192 comp on 287 att for 2297 yds 14 TDs and 9 Ints

Negatives: Missed games each season and new head coach

Positives: Very high completion percentage and only had one game each year with no passing TDs. Still has good weapons and not so good defense

I don't see him going for over 4,000 yards in his first season without Martz, but could be one of those overlooked QBs that are available late in the draft and present value.

Assuming he plays all season (and he hasn't ever)

340 comps on 510 att for 3950 yds 22 TDs and 12 Ints

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Marc Bulger is capable of being the number one QB in the league in terms of fantasy production. He has averaged 20.3 points per game in his 44 games, but is yet to play a full 16 game season. He suffered injury last year when attempting a tackle and leading with his throwing shoulder. Hopefully he will learn from that.

With Mike Martz departing, the new HC will be Scott Linehan. Martz is considered by many to be an offensive genius, and the Rams favored the passing game while he was in charge. Linehan was the offensive coordinator for Minnesota and they finished 9th, 3rd and then 1st in passing yardage while he was there. He then spent 2005 in Miami and they enjoyed their first top twenty ranking in passing yardage since Dan Marino retired. Gus Frerotte was Miami's QB last year and he hadn't started more than six games since 1997. Frerotte has followed Linehan to St. Louis in a backup role. So while I am noting the departure of Martz, I am not too concerned about the prospects of the Rams' passing game under Linehan.

Torry Holt missed two games last year while Isaac Bruce missed five. Kevin Curtis emerged in Bruce's absence. I still believe that Bruce has something left. He will be 34 in November but enjoyed a good season in 2004. I am confident that Curtis will step up if Bruce does suffer another injury.

So the weapons are all there for Bulger. OC Greg Olson is working on ways to protect Bulger this season. He will also be given the opportunity to audible in order to avoid some of the more dangerous situations. Martz did not give him that option.

One of the reasons that the Rams have produced good fantasy options in recent years is the ineffective play of the defense. That should continue despite the addition of Witherspoon at MLB. They added Tye Hill in the draft to compete at CB, but lost Archuleta to the Redskins. The combination of an aggressive passing game, very good receiving options, and a poor defense, should all increase the chance that the Rams will play in a number of high scoring games again this year.

The biggest question is not Bulger's ability or situation, it's whether he can stay on the field. Linehan also wants Steven Jackson to run the ball up to 25 times per game. While I am sure he wants that, it's very unlikely to happen on a regular basis. Holt is in his prime and the other receivers compliment him well.

This might actually be the year that Bulger plays 16 games, even if he reduces his production per game slightly in order to do so. The Rams' schedule looks very appealing with two games against SF, SEA and ARI and others against GB, DET, SD, KC, and OAK. Expect a slight dip in production when Bulger plays on the road. He has a TD/INT ratio of over 2:1 at home but has thrown 27 TDs to 30 INTs when on the road. He averages 2.6 points per game less in road games but it's still 18.9 and worthy of a fantasy starter.

I would consider the unusual strategy of handcuffing Bulger and Frerotte. The Rams look to have a potent offense and Frerotte knows Linehan's system and played in it last year. If Bulger does get hurt again, the Rams wouldn't lose too much production with Frerotte at QB.

Prediction

343/520 4050 yards 25 TDs 20 INTs

20 rushes 70 yards 1 TD

as usual MusesboyI'll see if I can add a few new nuggets here. Bulger's current ADP is mid 6th round in 12 team leagues right around the same place as McNabb, Eli and Culp. Most will place those guys in the same tier as Bulger for QB's IMHO. In fact, I know many who have Peyton in one tier and almost everyone else in the second tier save the some of the low end QB's like Grossman, A Smith, Frye... TC may see Palmer slide ahead of this tier. This is due to the depth of the position and the small variances between #2 and #X. So, while I agree with Musesboy analysis of Bulger's situation, the question really is, would you prefer Bulger in the 6th or say Plummer, Brooks or Green two rounds later? This board seems to favour drafting QB's late and it makes even more sense this year unless you can get value for Peyton (late 2nd or early 3rd). The QB's in Bulger's tier all come with questions of some kind and IMHO, with the exception of Peyton, Hass and Brady virtually every other QB you draft has some questions that would lead you to feel a little queasy about them as a QB1 without a solid QB2 behind him. To recap Musesboy's analysis:

--Soft D and nice schedule

--Stud receiver with solid complimentary receivers

--Linehan, while not Martz, has proven to produce offensive numbers

--Injury prone

--Talks about getting SJax 25 touches would likely reduce passing opps

--Prolly less reliant on pass anyway because Martz was so pass happy in the first place

The only disagreement I have with Musesboy is the handcuff argument. Unless you have deep rosters, I can't see why you would waste 2 roster spots to tie up the Rams QB's. With the depth at QB, skip the handcuff and avoid Bulger since there are other QB's who offer up virtually the same upside if you fel he has to be handcuffed--some of those guys can be had a full 2 rounds later as well.

3700 yards, 22 TD's, 15 picks with maybe a TD on the ground.

 

[Tau837]

Good posts in this thread.

Posted this elsewhere recently:

How many times did top QBs score less than 15 fantasy points?  Let's use the top 15 QBs in FBG's current consensus rankings and the past 3 seasons (situations changed too much if we go further back, but sample set too small with fewer seasons) and FBG scoring:

Bulger - 6/37 = 16.2% (3 were games in which he was injured)

Peyton Manning - 12/48 = 25% (better than this due to end of season cameos)

Brady - 12/48 = 25% (better than this due to end of season cameos)

Hasselbeck - 13/46 = 28.3%

Brooks - 13/45 = 28.9%

Palmer - 9/30 = 30% (only 2 last year, so he is better than his ranking here)

McNabb - 12/40 = 30% (only 3 in 2 seasons with TO... will likely get worse)

Green - 15/48 = 31.3%

Plummer - 15/48 = 31.3%

Delhomme - 19/48 = 39.6%

Favre - 19/48 = 39.6%

Brees - 19/42 = 45.2%

Vick - 16/35 = 45.7%

Eli Manning - 13/25 = 52%

Bledsoe - 32/48 = 66.77%

How about games with less than 10 points?  Those are certainly killers.

Brooks - 3/45 = 6.7%

Bulger - 3/37 = 8.1% (all 3 were games in which he was injured)

Plummer - 4/48 = 8.3% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Hasselbeck - 4/46 = 8.7% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Palmer - 3/30 = 10% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

McNabb - 4/40 = 10% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Brady - 5/48 = 10.4% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Peyton Manning - 6/48 = 12.5% (4 possibly due to end of season cameos)

Delhomme - 7/48 = 14.6%

Green - 7/48 = 14.6%

Vick - 6/35 = 17.1% (1 possibly due to end of season cameo)

Favre - 9/48 = 18.8%

Eli Manning - 6/25 = 24%

Brees - 12/42 = 28.6% (1 due to injury)

Bledsoe - 16/48 = 33.3%

Games with 20+ points:

Peyton Manning - 28/48 = 58.3%

Palmer - 15/30 = 50%

McNabb - 18/40 = 45% (12 with TO)

Green - 19/48 = 39.6%

Hasselbeck - 18/46 = 39.1%

Favre - 18/48 = 37.5%

Vick - 13/35 = 37.1%

Brooks - 16/45 = 35.6%

Brady - 17/48 = 35.4%

Brees - 14/42 = 33.3%

Bulger - 11/37 = 29.7%

Plummer - 14/48 = 29.2%

Delhomme - 13/48 = 27.1%

Bledsoe - 10/48 = 20.8%

Eli Manning - 5/25 = 20%

Games with 30+ points:

Peyton Manning - 9/48 = 18.8%

McNabb - 7/40 = 17.5% (all but 1 with TO)

Vick - 3/35 = 8.6%

Green - 4/48 - 8.3%

Favre - 3/48 = 6.3%

Bulger - 2/37 = 5.4%

Brees - 2/42 = 4.8%

Brooks - 2/45 = 4.4%

Hasselbeck - 2/46 = 4.3%

Plummer - 2/48 = 4.2%

Bledsoe - 2/48 = 4.2%

Eli Manning - 1/25 = 4%

Palmer - 1/30 = 3.3%

Brady - 1/48 = 2.1%

Delhomme - 0/48 = 0%

Bulger has been very consistent. That said, I was surprised to see that he hasn't had more big games in Martz's offense.

02 - 7 games 138 comp on 214 att for 1826 yds 14 TDs and 6 Ints

03- 15 games 336 comp on 532 att for 3845 yds 22 TDs and 22 Ints

04 - 14 games 321 comp on 485 att for 3964 yds 21 TDs and 14 Ints

05 - 8 games 192 comp on 287 att for 2297 yds 14 TDs and 9 Ints

Negatives: Missed games each season and new head coach

In 2002, Warner was the starter and got hurt. Bulger relieved him and played down the stretch until he got hurt himself in week 16. But he effectively only missed 2 games that season due to injury, not 9, in case someone might think that. (He had only 1 attempt in week 16 when he got hurt.)Also, in 2003, he missed game 1 because Warner was the opening day starter; Warner was benched after that 1 game due to concussion/fumbles and Bulger took over and played the rest of the season.

However, in 2005, he was actually hurt twice. Once in week 6, then he returned in week 10 and got hurt again in week 11. And in 2004, he only had 4 attempts in week 13 when he got hurt, so he effectively missed 3 games, not 2.

The past two years are troubling. He has played only about 20 healthy games over the past 2 seasons. And the 12 missed games include 2 games in which he got hurt early in a game and hammered his owners' chances by putting up less than 10 points before leaving.

I like him, but I'm definitely worried about the injuries. Agree that a strong backup is needed. In deep roster leagues, adding Frerotte as QB3 is not a bad idea.

 

[Bob N. Weaver]

I think Marinelli/ Martz are going to  GET BY Bulger week 4.

Fixed.... (actually the red words are mine - sorry Quez )

 

[Phlash]

Assuming he plays a whole season

343/520 4215 31/18

 

[Cool in the pocket]

Assuming he plays a whole season

343/520 4215 31/18

Even if he plays a whole season, 31 TD's would be pretty optimistic IMHO. He's never had more than 22 TD's and that was with Martz.

 

[Musesboy]

Assuming he plays a whole season

343/520 4215 31/18

Even if he plays a whole season, 31 TD's would be pretty optimistic IMHO. He's never had more than 22 TD's and that was with Martz.

Wow. That level of performance places him in contention for number one overall. I am high on him, but not quite that high. It is possible though.I think on a ppg basis he has more value than most being drafted around him. The 20.3 average impresses me.

 

[joffer]

Martz is gone, but Linehan's offenses haven't exactly been chopped liver.

- he's got the weapons

- he's got a running game

- the Rams defense is bad enough that i don't exactly see them running out a lot of clocks on the ground

- i'm not a huge believer in SOS, but Clayton's ranking has the Rams tied for the second easiest schedule for QBs

many will shy away this year because of the change in offensive philosophy, but i still think he's a bargain after 6 or so QBs are off the board. Assuming the shoulder is healed:

315/520 3875 yards, 23 TDs, 17 INTs

75 yards rushing, 1 TD

and please, please, no trying to take on LBs during INT returns

 

[Verminard]

For me it is all about gaining value during the draft. The biggest question should be "Is it worth taking Bulger who currently has an ADP of around 63". I am going to avoid Bulger, and hear are a few good reasons why you should maybe think about another QB on draft day as well.

1. Changing system in St Louis = No one truly knows how this will impact Bulgers numbers, Speculation is great and I agree with alot of points that have been made that lean towards him still having FF success, but at the end of the day it is still just speculation.

2. Injury risk, this normally does not bother me at all, after all this is football and not sychronized swimming. Injuries are going to happen. What bothers me is when he seems to trend towards missing games due to injury. In 2004 He basically missed the 3 games from 12/5 to 12/19, In 2005 He was gone for the season after 11/27. The reason for pointing this out is to show that he seems to wear down later in the season. For me this equates to the fantasy playoffs. So Bulger can get you to the playoffs with some nice performances early, but i hope you drafted a really good QB2 to use for the playoffs.

3. With a ADP of around 63 I just can not justify it as a value pick. Not when you can look to grab Favre with pick 100. Favre is only projected at about 10-15 Fantasy points less than Bulger, GB schedule has alot of easy matchups this year and Favre does not miss games. Favre is not the only one either, there are a few QBs going alot later than bulger that are alot safer of a pick.

 

[CA_7]

"I don't know what it is about him, maybe because he's not 6-foot-5, but that guy is the best-kept secret in the NFL in my opinion," Linehan said of Bulger. "People don't really talk about this guy. I think this guy is going to have a great year. Not just statistically, but as a guy who's going to take his game to a new level, leader of the team and the offense, and just playing winning football for us."

http://www.belleville.com/mld/belleville/s...ms/15178249.htm

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

343/520 4050 yards 25 TDs 20 INTs

20 rushes 70 yards 1 TD

Actual

370/588 4301 yards 24 TDs 8 INTs

18 carries 44 yards 0 TDs

Bulger not only played 16 games, he exceeded my high expectations. This worked out well for me as I drafted him in several leagues. The two biggest surprises were that he reduced his INT totals so drastically, and was still an explosive passer even with Steven Jackson achieving stud status for the first time. The handcuff of Gus Frerotte would have been a wasted pick though

Marc Bulger is capable of being the number one QB in the league in terms of fantasy production. He has averaged 20.3 points per game in his 44 games, but is yet to play a full 16 game season. He suffered injury last year when attempting a tackle and leading with his throwing shoulder. Hopefully he will learn from that.

With Mike Martz departing, the new HC will be Scott Linehan. Martz is considered by many to be an offensive genius, and the Rams favored the passing game while he was in charge. Linehan was the offensive coordinator for Minnesota and they finished 9th, 3rd and then 1st in passing yardage while he was there. He then spent 2005 in Miami and they enjoyed their first top twenty ranking in passing yardage since Dan Marino retired. Gus Frerotte was Miami's QB last year and he hadn't started more than six games since 1997. Frerotte has followed Linehan to St. Louis in a backup role. So while I am noting the departure of Martz, I am not too concerned about the prospects of the Rams' passing game under Linehan.

Torry Holt missed two games last year while Isaac Bruce missed five. Kevin Curtis emerged in Bruce's absence. I still believe that Bruce has something left. He will be 34 in November but enjoyed a good season in 2004. I am confident that Curtis will step up if Bruce does suffer another injury.

So the weapons are all there for Bulger. OC Greg Olson is working on ways to protect Bulger this season. He will also be given the opportunity to audible in order to avoid some of the more dangerous situations. Martz did not give him that option.

One of the reasons that the Rams have produced good fantasy options in recent years is the ineffective play of the defense. That should continue despite the addition of Witherspoon at MLB. They added Tye Hill in the draft to compete at CB, but lost Archuleta to the Redskins. The combination of an aggressive passing game, very good receiving options, and a poor defense, should all increase the chance that the Rams will play in a number of high scoring games again this year.

The biggest question is not Bulger's ability or situation, it's whether he can stay on the field. Linehan also wants Steven Jackson to run the ball up to 25 times per game. While I am sure he wants that, it's very unlikely to happen on a regular basis. Holt is in his prime and the other receivers compliment him well.

This might actually be the year that Bulger plays 16 games, even if he reduces his production per game slightly in order to do so. The Rams' schedule looks very appealing with two games against SF, SEA and ARI and others against GB, DET, SD, KC, and OAK. Expect a slight dip in production when Bulger plays on the road. He has a TD/INT ratio of over 2:1 at home but has thrown 27 TDs to 30 INTs when on the road. He averages 2.6 points per game less in road games but it's still 18.9 and worthy of a fantasy starter.

I would consider the unusual strategy of handcuffing Bulger and Frerotte. The Rams look to have a potent offense and Frerotte knows Linehan's system and played in it last year. If Bulger does get hurt again, the Rams wouldn't lose too much production with Frerotte at QB.

Prediction

343/520 4050 yards 25 TDs 20 INTs

20 rushes 70 yards 1 TD

 

[BigTex]

Agreed, he performed well this year, yet he killed me with his weak performance in week 15.