Player Spotlight: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Marshawn Lynch Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[FF Ninja]

At age 26 Lynch posted his best season to date with a career high 5.0 ypc. With Russell Wilson establishing himself as a legitimate passing threat, the Seahawks actually passed less in the second half of the season and become more productive at both aspects of the game (Lynch 4.8 ypc vs. 5.3 ypc, Wilson 7.0 ypa vs. 9.0 ypa). Lynch scored only 3 touchdowns in the first 8 games and he scored 9 in the last 8 games.

People are absolutely having a binge on Wilson kool-aide and expecting the Seahawks to become pass happy, but I don't see any motivation for them to deviate from their successful game plan. Wilson threw the ball less than 23 times in wins and 30 times in losses. During the last 8 games, the Seahawks went 7-1 with just 183 passing attempts. So while I'm sure many will cite Wilson's emergence as a negative for Lynch, I don't see it that way. The only concern I have with Lynch is that they try to preserve him now that they've got so much talent behind him. I thought Turbin looked very capable last year and I think Michael might be the most talented RB in this (relatively weak) class. I guess I can live with a few less carries per game so long as Lynch continues his pace of 1+ TD/game. I think Pete has a lot of faith in Lynch, so I expect he will remain the goal line back.

I suppose it is worth noting that Lynch is now 27 years old and had a pretty heavy workload. If you include the postseason, he played 18 games and totaled 378 touches, 2010 yards, 15 TDs. That's not counting the preseason, which I think was pretty minimal for him. I consider him less of a breakdown threat than ADP, Foster, and Rice. He certainly appears more durable than Charles, Spiller, and Richardson. It's hard to call a guy going #6 overall a steal, but he seems like the guy with the least questions marks. He's an established stud, has an improving offense, is still in his prime, and has been fairly durable over the years. I'd rank him #3 at worst. I'm projecting 15 touchdowns, but I would give him even odds with Foster to lead the NFL in touchdowns.

280 carries x 4.6 ypc = 1,288 yds 15 TD, 20 rec x 8 ypr = 160 yds 0 TD

Edit: slight stat correction

 

[Shutout]

I agree with FF's take. Good info on the number of total carries last year, the overall workload, etc. the only different take I will toss out there is I'm not as willing to put him top 3. I'm more comfortable putting him 8-10 almost entirely based on the thought that it is incredibly hard for a RB to maintain a 1 TD/game pace unless he is pretty much 50% of the offense and I think the addition of Harvin, good depth at RB, and the development of Wilson will prevent that.

 

[Beerguzzler]

I think there's a slight decrease in Lynch's overall numbers, but we may see an uptick in TD's if the overall offense improves.

295 carries 4.7 ypc = 1386 yards, 16 TD's

20 rec x 8.5 = 170 yds, 1 TD

 

[Abspara]

I'll predict a great season for Lynch, but a decrease from last years preformance. Only thing I can speculate on is they may try to keep Lynch a bit healthier for a playoff push once again, which could lead to a decrease in carries and some opportunity for Turbin / Michael to get some playing time.

280 carries for 1,260 yards. 13 TD's

24 receptions for 215 yards, 2 TD's.

 

[BigSteelThrill]

With that O-Line, and total team, sky's the limit for Lynch.

But the Seahawks will try to remain smart and not overuse him if they don't need to.

He could be the #1 RB. But he wont because they don't have to do that. Still easy to slate him as top 5.

290 carries. (down 25).

1400 yards. (down 190)

4.83 per carry (down 0.22)

16 Total TDs. 15 rush (up 4)

25rec/200recyards/1TD (virtually the same).

Total points almost identical to last year with a bit less usage. (up 5 total points).

The ceiling, if they decided to totally bellcow him and they had less blowouts (he had 8 games under 20 carries), would be about 1815 rush yards w/ 18.5 rushing scores.

 

[ol blues]

Lynch is usually undervalued based on his opportunity and past production and appears to be so again this season even with his RB1 draft position. This should continue to be a run first offense that's only getting better with the addition of Harvin and some OL pieces and the maturation of Wilson and Tate.

The key concern that I have is what happens with the 2012 DUI charges and a possible disciplinary suspension. Losing 4 games would be huge, but the status of the DUI case and its likelihood of proceeding to trial remain unclear.

 

[ROYALWITCHEESE]

He's a laboring runner. Always has been. Those guys tend to fall off a cliff suddenly and relatively unexpectedly. I'm going to say Michael gets 30% of 1st and 2nd downs, while Turbin takes the 3rd and longs. 210 carries 900 yards, 19 rec for 150 yards, 10 total TD. Still a RB2, but no longer a 1.

 

[Phenix]

He's a laboring runner. Always has been. Those guys tend to fall off a cliff suddenly and relatively unexpectedly. I'm going to say Michael gets 30% of 1st and 2nd downs, while Turbin takes the 3rd and longs. 210 carries 900 yards, 19 rec for 150 yards, 10 total TD. Still a RB2, but no longer a 1.

First have to laugh at that assessment.

Second, this is a run first team and Lynch is an elite type of runner who has power and speed and can catch the ball out of the backfield. He is a true every down back. He just turned 27 and still has the ability to be a true hoss for 2 more years, until he may share carries somewhere after that. Michael or Turbin is not a major threat this year, next year they may cut carries but you just don't replace studs just because. Lynch has shown NO sign of letting up and finnished last year STRONG with 8 TDs in his last 5 games and 4 straight 100 yard games. They don't call him beast mode for nothing.

300/1425/14 and 30/220/1 - Beasting it, without suspension this year!

 

[Yitbos69]

He's a laboring runner. Always has been. Those guys tend to fall off a cliff suddenly and relatively unexpectedly. I'm going to say Michael gets 30% of 1st and 2nd downs, while Turbin takes the 3rd and longs. 210 carries 900 yards, 19 rec for 150 yards, 10 total TD. Still a RB2, but no longer a 1.

Great Post!!

 

[ItsOnlytheRiver]

Is it still a possibility he gets suspended?

Edit - nevermind, just saw the other thread with a link claiming a suspension is a long shot.

 

[Phenix]

He's a laboring runner. Always has been. Those guys tend to fall off a cliff suddenly and relatively unexpectedly. I'm going to say Michael gets 30% of 1st and 2nd downs, while Turbin takes the 3rd and longs. 210 carries 900 yards, 19 rec for 150 yards, 10 total TD. Still a RB2, but no longer a 1.

Great Post!!

Even though he was a beast down the stretch and has shown no sign of slowing down? Just seems odd you think this with no sign of slowing down. Is it hype of the rookie belief?

 

[hauser42]

Lynch is in a great spot to procuce. He is one of the few work horses in nfl and center piece of the offense. Wilson and the passing came getting traction last year only helped Lynch out. Teams can no longer keep putting 8 men in the box and try to stop the run game or they will get burned.

Wilson may suffer a little bit this season as teams have an offseason to study his game tapes but he also had that time to get better in the offense. The key to the offense beocming better is the WR group to keeping up their growth, I think people are under estimating the talent of Tate and Rice. Until a week ago I had no faith in these guys till doing a little research for an early draft.

Lynch 2013 1,610 total yards 15 tds for the season.

 

[xrayveggin]

The running game starts with the OL, and last year, at RG, the Seahawks started a rookie DL convert who hadn't played OL since peewee football. By experience alone, the RG should be miles ahead of last season. Also, if LG Carpenter is healthy this season, his presence would be a huge upgrade over McQuistan; the left side of the line, Okung, Carpenter, Unger, would be among the best in the NFL.

On top of that, increased threat in the passing game with Harvin (not to mention a healthy Baldwin, speedy rookie TE Willson, and a fantastic downfield blocker in draft pick Chris Harper) is gonna require more conservative safety play...

The backfield has set goals of 2400 total yards rushing with Marshawn getting 1600 and Turbin getting 800. In Lynch's last 8 games during the regular season, he produced: 19.5 cpg, 103 rush yards pg, 1.5 rec/g, 14 rec yds/g, 1.1 TDs. I think he's utilized less, but is more efficient, along with the rest of the offense. I think he manages 100 ypg on 18 carries, 2 rec/g, 20 rec yds/g, and 1.4 TDs.

There is a chance he misses a game or two with his recurring "back injury"...

in 14 games he produces

1560 total yards, 28 receptions, 17 TDs

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

He's a laboring runner. Always has been. Those guys tend to fall off a cliff suddenly and relatively unexpectedly. I'm going to say Michael gets 30% of 1st and 2nd downs, while Turbin takes the 3rd and longs. 210 carries 900 yards, 19 rec for 150 yards, 10 total TD. Still a RB2, but no longer a 1.

Great Post!!

He's a laboring runner. Always has been. Those guys tend to fall off a cliff suddenly and relatively unexpectedly. I'm going to say Michael gets 30% of 1st and 2nd downs, while Turbin takes the 3rd and longs. 210 carries 900 yards, 19 rec for 150 yards, 10 total TD. Still a RB2, but no longer a 1.

Great Post!!

Even though he was a beast down the stretch and has shown no sign of slowing down? Just seems odd you think this with no sign of slowing down. Is it hype of the rookie belief?

What's the reality here?

Do they conserve Lynch?

Do they play the rookie and Turbin?

Does Wilson get mroe of the play share?

Lynch just seems like one of the greater variables out there vs. McCoy, Charles, Forte, Richardson. Or does he belong above those guys?

 

[swirvenirvin]

Don't see a decrease in carries for him. There were a few large blowouts that he barely touched the ball in the 2nd half, which decreased his number of carries. I see him right around the 315 mark again

 

[Tool]

he makes me nervous. i will be passing.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

Uhm, so Lynch.... practicing? Will be playing?

Si?