Player Spotlight: Marvin Harrison (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Marvin Harrison, WR, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Marvin Harrison Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[(unwelcomed)GUEST]

Has he lost a step?

Is he too old?

Is this the year that Reggie Wayne takes over as Indy's #1 WR?

Bottom line is no, no and no. Wayne may once again equal Harrison's yardage production but the smooth 34 (edited as originally posted 32) year old is still Peyton's go-to man. Wayne will narrow the TD gap and should be a nice pick-up this year but Harrison will not drop-off. Harrison will catch more passes than the 82 passes in 2006 especially with: 1. the threat of a healthy Stokley, Wayne and the continued threat of capable TEs & 2. the absence of E. James. The Colts will have to set up the run with the passing game in '06 and Harrison's sure hands look to benefit. The TDs will stay in the 10-13 range, the total yards should reach 1300-1380 and the receptions will come in around in the mid-nineties. The marked drop historically for WRs is year 13, I think Marvin with Peyton have at least 3 more 10+ td, 1000+yd seasons in store for FFballers. One word description of Harrison: reliable. Nothing has changed in that regard.

Last years #s:

132 targets (14th), 82 rec., 1146yds.(10th), 12tds(tied for first in the league)

2006 prediction:

96 rec., 1370yds., 12tds(4-5th overall WR behind Owens, Chambers, SSmith)

Did I mention he has a decent QB?

 

[Chase Stuart]

Bottom line is no, no and no. Wayne may once again equal Harrison's yardage production but the smooth 32 year old is still Peyton's go-to man.

2006 prediction:

96 rec., 1370yds., 12tds(4-5th overall WR behind Owens, Chambers, SSmith)

Harrison will be 34 years old when the season begins, a couple of months older than Isaac Bruce.Most receptions ever by a 34 year old:

108 - Jerry Rice

90 - Cris Carter

88 - Irving Fryar

Most receiving yards ever by a 34 year old:

1287 - Joey Galloway

1254 - Jerry Rice

1244 - Frank Lewis

Most receiving TDs ever by a 34 year old:

13 - Cris Carter

11 - Tim Brown

11 - Irving Fryar

Just to be clear, your predictions would put him 2nd, 1st and 2nd on the all-time receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs list by a 34 year old WR.

 

[Hammerage]

Bottom line is no, no and no.  Wayne may once again equal Harrison's yardage production but the smooth 32 year old is still Peyton's go-to man. 

2006 prediction:

96 rec., 1370yds., 12tds(4-5th overall WR behind Owens, Chambers, SSmith)

Harrison will be 34 years old when the season begins, a couple of months older than Isaac Bruce.Most receptions ever by a 34 year old:

108 - Jerry Rice

90 - Cris Carter

88 - Irving Fryar

Most receiving yards ever by a 34 year old:

1287 - Joey Galloway

1254 - Jerry Rice

1244 - Frank Lewis

Most receiving TDs ever by a 34 year old:

13 - Cris Carter

11 - Tim Brown

11 - Irving Fryar

Just to be clear, your predictions would put him 2nd, 1st and 2nd on the all-time receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs list by a 34 year old WR.

That is not entirely unlikely as he probably has more going for him this year than everyone above not named Jerry. Fantastic QB, great chemistry, no serious injuries and they lost their Pro Bowl RB.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Bottom line is no, no and no. Wayne may once again equal Harrison's yardage production but the smooth 32 year old is still Peyton's go-to man.

2006 prediction:

96 rec., 1370yds., 12tds(4-5th overall WR behind Owens, Chambers, SSmith)

Harrison will be 34 years old when the season begins, a couple of months older than Isaac Bruce.Most receptions ever by a 34 year old:

108 - Jerry Rice

90 - Cris Carter

88 - Irving Fryar

Most receiving yards ever by a 34 year old:

1287 - Joey Galloway

1254 - Jerry Rice

1244 - Frank Lewis

Most receiving TDs ever by a 34 year old:

13 - Cris Carter

11 - Tim Brown

11 - Irving Fryar

Just to be clear, your predictions would put him 2nd, 1st and 2nd on the all-time receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs list by a 34 year old WR.

That is not entirely unlikely as he probably has more going for him this year than everyone above not named Jerry. Fantastic QB, great chemistry, no serious injuries and they lost their Pro Bowl RB.

I'm not saying it is or is not unlikely. I just wanted to make sure the historical context was known. And I don't see why losing his Pro Bowl RB would be a good thing. We've been through this a few times on this board, and it hasn't been shown that having a bad RB helps a WRs stats better than having a good RB.

 

[BlueOnion]

Harrison will be 34 years old when the season begins, a couple of months older than Isaac Bruce.

Nice catch Chase, this caught me off guard as I was sure Marvin was younger. However, after looking it up you are correct, Harrison is 77 days older.

 

[rzrback77]

I believe that the passing game will remain every effective for the Colts even without the Edge. In my Peyton Manning post, I projected 4,644 total passing yards and 36 TDs.

Reviewing Marvin Harrison's numbers for the past four years, I see a slight downward trend. After finishing 1st for the third time in four years in 2002, he has ranked 5th, 5th, and 9th. His reception total has gone from 143 to 94 to 86 to 82, even while the Colts passing was increasing for three of the four years. I think that trend continues. Coupled with his ADP of 23 and WR7, I see some risk this year with reliable Marvin.

Reggie Wayne's receptions over the same four year period have increased each year from 49 to 68 to 77 to 83. I believe this will be the year than Wayne's production exceeds Harrison.

Harrison 77 catches for 990 yards and 7 TDs. Another nice year for the future hall of famer, but slipping back to the pack somewhat.

 

[nygiants56]

I believe that the passing game will remain every effective for the Colts even without the Edge. In my Peyton Manning post, I projected 4,644 total passing yards and 36 TDs.

Reviewing Marvin Harrison's numbers for the past four years, I see a slight downward trend. After finishing 1st for the third time in four years in 2002, he has ranked 5th, 5th, and 9th. His reception total has gone from 143 to 94 to 86 to 82, even while the Colts passing was increasing for three of the four years. I think that trend continues. Coupled with his ADP of 23 and WR7, I see some risk this year with reliable Marvin.

Reggie Wayne's receptions over the same four year period have increased each year from 49 to 68 to 77 to 83. I believe this will be the year than Wayne's production exceeds Harrison.

Harrison 77 catches for 990 yards and 7 TDs. Another nice year for the future hall of famer, but slipping back to the pack somewhat.

 

[BlueOnion]

I expect Harrison to continue to excel this year and potentially be a top-5 wide receiver. The emergence of Wayne will only encourage teams to match up with Harrison 1-on-1.

It will not get any easier for Harrison.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I believe that the passing game will remain every effective for the Colts even without the Edge. In my Peyton Manning post, I projected 4,644 total passing yards and 36 TDs.

Reviewing Marvin Harrison's numbers for the past four years, I see a slight downward trend. After finishing 1st for the third time in four years in 2002, he has ranked 5th, 5th, and 9th. His reception total has gone from 143 to 94 to 86 to 82, even while the Colts passing was increasing for three of the four years. I think that trend continues. Coupled with his ADP of 23 and WR7, I see some risk this year with reliable Marvin.

Reggie Wayne's receptions over the same four year period have increased each year from 49 to 68 to 77 to 83. I believe this will be the year than Wayne's production exceeds Harrison.

Harrison 77 catches for 990 yards and 7 TDs. Another nice year for the future hall of famer, but slipping back to the pack somewhat.

Not to nitpick, I understand where you're coming from with the trend, but it is Marvin Harrison. Rod Smith and Jimmy Smith can post over 1,000 yards in their mid 30's. I'm thinking if Rod can post over 1,000 yards in the run heavy Denver offense, with Jake Plummer as qb, then Harrison can best that in the Colts offense with Peyton at QB. I'm gonna predict 88 for 1118 and 12 tds

 

[Bankerguy]

I believe that the passing game will remain every effective for the Colts even without the Edge.  In my Peyton Manning post, I projected 4,644 total passing yards and 36 TDs.

Reviewing Marvin Harrison's numbers for the past four years, I see a slight downward trend.  After finishing 1st for the third time in four years in 2002, he has ranked 5th, 5th, and 9th.  His reception total has gone from 143 to 94 to 86 to 82, even while the Colts passing was increasing for three of the four years.  I think that trend continues.  Coupled with his ADP of 23 and WR7, I see some risk this year with reliable Marvin.

Reggie Wayne's receptions over the same four year period have increased each year from 49 to 68 to 77 to 83.  I believe this will be the year than Wayne's production exceeds Harrison.

Harrison 77 catches for 990 yards and 7 TDs.  Another nice year for the future hall of famer, but slipping back to the pack somewhat.

Not to nitpick, I understand where you're coming from with the trend, but it is Marvin Harrison. Rod Smith and Jimmy Smith can post over 1,000 yards in their mid 30's. I'm thinking if Rod can post over 1,000 yards in the run heavy Denver offense, with Jake Plummer as qb, then Harrison can best that in the Colts offense with Peyton at QB. I'm gonna predict 88 for 1118 and 12 tds

I think this looks about right.I do understand the age concern, but he has the right QB and right situation to still produce as a Top 10 WR.

 

[CravenM]

I think Harrison and Wayne will have similar if not better numbers to last year.

1) Peyton loves Harrison: perfect routes, perfect hands and perfect feet

2) No more Edge means the running game will not be as efficient as in the past

3) Last year's first few games were a low anomaly - if they go back to average, his numbers will increase.

I think Harrison and Wayne both end up in the top 15.

 

[rzrback77]

I believe that the passing game will remain every effective for the Colts even without the Edge.  In my Peyton Manning post, I projected 4,644 total passing yards and 36 TDs.

Reviewing Marvin Harrison's numbers for the past four years, I see a slight downward trend.  After finishing 1st for the third time in four years in 2002, he has ranked 5th, 5th, and 9th.  His reception total has gone from 143 to 94 to 86 to 82, even while the Colts passing was increasing for three of the four years.  I think that trend continues.  Coupled with his ADP of 23 and WR7, I see some risk this year with reliable Marvin.

Reggie Wayne's receptions over the same four year period have increased each year from 49 to 68 to 77 to 83.  I believe this will be the year than Wayne's production exceeds Harrison.

Harrison 77 catches for 990 yards and 7 TDs.  Another nice year for the future hall of famer, but slipping back to the pack somewhat.

Not to nitpick, I understand where you're coming from with the trend, but it is Marvin Harrison. Rod Smith and Jimmy Smith can post over 1,000 yards in their mid 30's. I'm thinking if Rod can post over 1,000 yards in the run heavy Denver offense, with Jake Plummer as qb, then Harrison can best that in the Colts offense with Peyton at QB. I'm gonna predict 88 for 1118 and 12 tds

I don't think that Jimmy or Rod Smith had a Reggie Wayne playing with them and neither had less receptions in more than three consecutive seasons. Anyway, the difference between our two projections is less than a catch and 8 yards per game, besides the TDs and that is where my projection is suspect, if at all and you didn't even mention that.

 

[Jon_Moore]

Don't get me wrong, I think Wayne's a tremendous talent, but I also think 990 and 7 is closer to what Wayne will get than what Harrison will. I think it would be a mistake to predict the two to swap stats.

 

[(unwelcomed)GUEST]

Sorry about the drunk ######ed math. He's 33 now. His bday is 08/25/72...backwards drunk math got me to 32 .

In looking at the big drop-off for WRs I was looking at years in the league, not age. Marvin's stats start in 1996, this will be his 11th season. For the top receivers in the game: Brown, Rice, Fryar, Monk, Largent etc., the drop-off has come at or after year 13 with Rice being the exception. I did not look at age, just years in the league. I'm looking at the numbers I posted as very realistic. The Colts wrapped up their playoff spot very early last year, they may actually need to win some games late this year. He was also hurt and missed week 16 and had only 2 catches week 17. If Harrison stayed healthy, and yeah it is an if, based on averages last year you can add 65 yds, 4 catches and 50/50 on a td. That would give him roughly 87 rec, 1200 yds and maybe 13 tds. That would have been a slight uptrend. If, if's and but's were candy and nuts... .

I think the increase in production from Wayne actually helps Harrison. He may see less iso's w/ the most athletic corner and less double coverage. Last year it appeared Manning and the Colts offense also toned it back some in an attempt to give the D a breather. The quick strike passing game may have to turn it up a notch to make up for the loss of Edge. Maybe, maybe not. I still think Harrison is incredibly consistant. I don't see 100+ receptions but a slight upswing is probable. Rice had nice 14th, 17th and 18th years when he was older than Marvin. He's obviously the best that has played the game. Rice's career stats (pro-football-reference.com). The 2006 schedule doesn't look soft but it ain't the toughest against the pass either.

 

[Musesboy]

Marvin Harrison doesn't do much. He just runs smooth routes, quietly makes catches, and scores 10-15 TDs per year. Manning is the best fantasy QB in the league and Harrison is his main target. Reggie Wayne gets a lot of targets too because Manning will throw to whoever is open, but Harrison is the first option in the passing game.

Harrison had elbow surgery this offseason and is apparently fine. 2005 was a big year for him. He enjoyed his second-highest yards per catch, and one of his TDs went for a career-long 80 yards. Because he has been around so long, many believe he is fading. But if Galloway can have a top five year at the same age with Chris Simms at QB, I'll take Harrison and Manning to add to their record number of TDs together.

The Colts clinched early last year and a few players sat out with minor injuries near the end of the season. Harrison had 1125/12 in 14 games before missing Week 16 and making a cameo appearance in Week 17. If he had seen full action, he was on pace for 1286/14. That would have seen him finish second among receivers behind Steve Smith. I think the general perception is that Wayne is becoming the main target. Harrison's performance last year in a little over 14 games, with 14.0 ypc suggests otherwise. He is clearly the main TD threat. With the Colts possibly focusing a little more on the passing game with Edge gone, I see a great year for Harrison. I might even argue that he is the safest bet among the top eight receivers, although Holt could lay claim to that too.

Prediction

92 receptions 1250 yards 14 TDs

 

[There it is]

Marvin Harrison doesn't do much. He just runs smooth routes, quietly makes catches, and scores 10-15 TDs per year. Manning is the best fantasy QB in the league and Harrison is his main target. Reggie Wayne gets a lot of targets too because Manning will throw to whoever is open, but Harrison is the first option in the passing game.

Harrison had elbow surgery this offseason and is apparently fine. 2005 was a big year for him. He enjoyed his second-highest yards per catch, and one of his TDs went for a career-long 80 yards. Because he has been around so long, many believe he is fading. But if Galloway can have a top five year at the same age with Chris Simms at QB, I'll take Harrison and Manning to add to their record number of TDs together.

The Colts clinched early last year and a few players sat out with minor injuries near the end of the season. Harrison had 1125/12 in 14 games before missing Week 16 and making a cameo appearance in Week 17. If he had seen full action, he was on pace for 1286/14. That would have seen him finish second among receivers behind Steve Smith. I think the general perception is that Wayne is becoming the main target. Harrison's performance last year in a little over 14 games, with 14.0 ypc suggests otherwise. He is clearly the main TD threat. With the Colts possibly focusing a little more on the passing game with Edge gone, I see a great year for Harrison. I might even argue that he is the safest bet among the top eight receivers, although Holt could lay claim to that too.

Prediction

92 receptions 1250 yards 14 TDs

Chase is not going to be happy w/your prediction.

 

[Musesboy]

Chase is not going to be happy w/your prediction.

Yep, I am challenging history.He would probably soil himself if he saw my Losman prediction

 

[MLBrandow]

Chase is not going to be happy w/your prediction.

Yep, I am challenging history.He would probably soil himself if he saw my Losman prediction

The bench? 91/1257/14

 

[PACKER 7]

Yes Harrison is older and he may be losing a step, but he is a great route runner and knows how to get open.

Harrison's success will be dependant on 2 things I believe:

1. Wayne's ability to make defenders to respect both WRs.

2. Despite what people think about James leaving, I don't think they will miss his ground game as much as they will miss his pass blocking ability. So Addai/Rhodes need to be able to buy Manning time. (Colts might run more hurry-up due to this.) However, Bill Polian isn't a dummy and I think between Rhodes and Addai will somehow come through.

The Colts also have an easier schedule than last year according to what I see.

All these factors add up to Harrison having an "average" year.

86 recs 1168yds and 12TDs

In my rankings, which are based on 6pts for TD, 1/10yds rec, this makes Harrison No. 7 ranked WR. BTW, Wayne is 11 is those rankings. They could easily flip flop. Bottom line is that I expect big things from the Colts air attack this season.

We'll see...

 

[Cool in the pocket]

In the last 7 years, he has never had less than 1100 yards, 82 receptions or 10TD's. Logic would suggest that that should be his floor. On top of that he rarely misses games. Age is starting to be a factor as many have pointed out, but in reality Marvin is the SA of WR's only he has done it longer. He did it when Peyton blew up (shocking I know), but he also did it when Edge blew out in 2001. Whether the running game is effective or not, the Indy passing game thrives. With the development of the TE's and Wayne, Stokely in the slot, there is no reason to believe the Indy O will lose much with Edge in the desert. They'll prolly rely a little more on the passing game than when Edge was there and may be slightly less effective, but this is still a top offense. I'll agree with some others in that I see Wayne closing the gap and maybe upticks in Clark and/or Stokely from last year, but I have no doubt that Marvin will get his too. He is in that large tier of WR's that could finish as WR1. He is one of the the safe picks of that group in that his floor is stable and high although his upside is not as good as some of the others.

85 rec 1200 yards, 11 TD's

 

[jurb26]

80 rec, 1190 yds, 10 TDs

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

92 receptions 1250 yards 14 TDs

Actual

95 receptions 1366 yards 12 TDs

I was right on the money in terms of fantasy points for Harrison, although he achieved more yardage and less TDs than I predicted. He was third in my rankings behind Steve Smith and Torry Holt, and I ended up with him in many leagues as a result. His strong finish was a useful part of any championship team and I still believe he is Manning's favorite target and first read.

(unwelcomed)GUEST projected Harrison at 96/1370/12

Marvin Harrison doesn't do much. He just runs smooth routes, quietly makes catches, and scores 10-15 TDs per year. Manning is the best fantasy QB in the league and Harrison is his main target. Reggie Wayne gets a lot of targets too because Manning will throw to whoever is open, but Harrison is the first option in the passing game.

Harrison had elbow surgery this offseason and is apparently fine. 2005 was a big year for him. He enjoyed his second-highest yards per catch, and one of his TDs went for a career-long 80 yards. Because he has been around so long, many believe he is fading. But if Galloway can have a top five year at the same age with Chris Simms at QB, I'll take Harrison and Manning to add to their record number of TDs together.

The Colts clinched early last year and a few players sat out with minor injuries near the end of the season. Harrison had 1125/12 in 14 games before missing Week 16 and making a cameo appearance in Week 17. If he had seen full action, he was on pace for 1286/14. That would have seen him finish second among receivers behind Steve Smith. I think the general perception is that Wayne is becoming the main target. Harrison's performance last year in a little over 14 games, with 14.0 ypc suggests otherwise. He is clearly the main TD threat. With the Colts possibly focusing a little more on the passing game with Edge gone, I see a great year for Harrison. I might even argue that he is the safest bet among the top eight receivers, although Holt could lay claim to that too.

Prediction

92 receptions 1250 yards 14 TDs