Player Spotlight: Matt Cassel (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2009 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 120 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matt Cassel, QB, Kansas City Chiefs

Player Page Link: Matt Cassel Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[hankey2mlh]

I think it will be hard for him to match last year's numbers...

3500 yds, 16 TD, 19 INT

295 rush yds, 2 TD

 

[Pictus Cat]

I'm not sure he will keep the job all season.

Thigpen, new system/staff, loss of best recieving option are not a great start.

 

[Warpig]

I'm not buying the hype on Cassel. I don't think he'll QB the whole season due to ineffectiveness or injury.

2700 yds passing

14 tds

17 ints

104 rushing yds

1 td

 

[Ministry of Pain]

Matt Cassell is part of an elastic band of QBs where if you adjust their numbers by a couple of TDs in either direction you can pop them up 8-10 spots or down 8-10 spots. From David Garrard all the way down to Jake Delhomme on David Dodd's projections there is very little difference...and I agree with DD on this even though he isn't saying it. Cassell is #16 so he is right in the middle of the 10-24 crowd. It's just a matter of what flavor is for you. If you want an older established guy there is Palmer, Delhomme, Hasselbeck. If you want younger with possible upside there is Schaub, Ryan, Flacco. Just pick your poison.

As to Cassell, I think he will be somewhere over 3,000 yds and probably around 15-20 TDs as long as he nails down the job which he should with the amount of money they are going to pay him.

 

[brutha]

this guy is going to flop BAD, he was a system QB. thigpen is starter by early to mid Nov.

 

[TS Garp]

There are owners who don't have a doubt in their minds that Cassel's going to fall on his face and be an absolute disaster, and you can certainly see their points. After all, the little success he's had came in one of the greatest offensive systems in the history of the NFL, where he was surrounded by exceptional talent. He's moving to a team that just lost their star tight end and looks shaky after Dwayne Bowe. In addition, Cassel took too many sacks at times and some people wonder if he'll be on the bench sooner rather than later, either by injury or benching.

I acknowledge that Cassel comes with quit a bit of risk, but I also see a lot of upside: the combination of Todd Haley as head coach and Chan Gailey as OC is very intriguing and should bode well for the KC passing attack. In addition, Gailey made Tyler Thigpen a pretty good fantasy QB for awhile last season, and I do believe that Matt Cassel is more talented than Thigpen. I also think you'll see the Chiefs pass a lot (both by design and by necessity) and Cassel has shown that he can run a bit as well. Again, I do believe that he comes with risk, but I think the reward is there as well. Just be sure to pair him with a safer play at QB.

My prediction:

315 completions, 530 attempts, 3,580 yds, 20 passing td's, 17 int's, 70 rushes, 250 yds, 2 td's

 

[Banger]

Let me start off by saying that I'm not a big believer in Cassell and while I don't think he's horrible I think he's a mid-tier QB at best. Fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a decent situation....passing minded coach/coaching staff, team that will be behind early and often and need to pass the ball and decent (not great weapons).

Last year with Thigpen and crew the Chiefs threw for 307-538-3312-21-16 and ran for 62-386-3. Despite my feelings on Cassell I think that he's a better QB than Thigpen. I also think that they will utilize Cassell's running ability as he's a surprisingly decent threat when he takes off.

340-550-3550-20-15 and 60-400-4

 

[David Yudkin]

Let me start off by saying that I'm not a big believer in Cassell and while I don't think he's horrible I think he's a mid-tier QB at best. Fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a decent situation....passing minded coach/coaching staff, team that will be behind early and often and need to pass the ball and decent (not great weapons). Last year with Thigpen and crew the Chiefs threw for 307-538-3312-21-16 and ran for 62-386-3. Despite my feelings on Cassell I think that he's a better QB than Thigpen. I also think that they will utilize Cassell's running ability as he's a surprisingly decent threat when he takes off. 340-550-3550-20-15 and 60-400-4

Here's the thing. Last year in PFR's scoring Cassel scored 291 fantasy points and ranked 8th. The season you just outlined adds up to 332 fantasy points . . . which would have ranked 5th. Wasn't sure if the "mid-tier" comment was for NFL purposes or fantasy purposes.

 

[Banger]

Let me start off by saying that I'm not a big believer in Cassell and while I don't think he's horrible I think he's a mid-tier QB at best. Fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a decent situation....passing minded coach/coaching staff, team that will be behind early and often and need to pass the ball and decent (not great weapons). Last year with Thigpen and crew the Chiefs threw for 307-538-3312-21-16 and ran for 62-386-3. Despite my feelings on Cassell I think that he's a better QB than Thigpen. I also think that they will utilize Cassell's running ability as he's a surprisingly decent threat when he takes off. 340-550-3550-20-15 and 60-400-4

Here's the thing. Last year in PFR's scoring Cassel scored 291 fantasy points and ranked 8th. The season you just outlined adds up to 332 fantasy points . . . which would have ranked 5th. Wasn't sure if the "mid-tier" comment was for NFL purposes or fantasy purposes.

PFR? Good point otherwise. I'm high on the rushing but I do believe he'll be a threat but 4 td's is probably a bit much...maybe 2. Otherwise the Chiefs have averaged 3398 yards passing the last 2 years and 19 TD's and I believe he's a better QB than what they've had. By mid-tier I was referring more to his NFL abilities, fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a good/very good situation as he'll have a passing offense and play from behind the 2nd half every game. Although my projections may have goosed him up a little higher than I think he'll end up I think he'll probably end up in the 10-16 range.

 

[David Yudkin]

Let me start off by saying that I'm not a big believer in Cassell and while I don't think he's horrible I think he's a mid-tier QB at best. Fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a decent situation....passing minded coach/coaching staff, team that will be behind early and often and need to pass the ball and decent (not great weapons). Last year with Thigpen and crew the Chiefs threw for 307-538-3312-21-16 and ran for 62-386-3. Despite my feelings on Cassell I think that he's a better QB than Thigpen. I also think that they will utilize Cassell's running ability as he's a surprisingly decent threat when he takes off. 340-550-3550-20-15 and 60-400-4

Here's the thing. Last year in PFR's scoring Cassel scored 291 fantasy points and ranked 8th. The season you just outlined adds up to 332 fantasy points . . . which would have ranked 5th. Wasn't sure if the "mid-tier" comment was for NFL purposes or fantasy purposes.

PFR? Good point otherwise. I'm high on the rushing but I do believe he'll be a threat but 4 td's is probably a bit much...maybe 2. Otherwise the Chiefs have averaged 3398 yards passing the last 2 years and 19 TD's and I believe he's a better QB than what they've had. By mid-tier I was referring more to his NFL abilities, fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a good/very good situation as he'll have a passing offense and play from behind the 2nd half every game. Although my projections may have goosed him up a little higher than I think he'll end up I think he'll probably end up in the 10-16 range.

I used Pro-Football-Reference's numbers because I had the site open to their fantasy numbers from last year.

 

[Banger]

Let me start off by saying that I'm not a big believer in Cassell and while I don't think he's horrible I think he's a mid-tier QB at best. Fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a decent situation....passing minded coach/coaching staff, team that will be behind early and often and need to pass the ball and decent (not great weapons). Last year with Thigpen and crew the Chiefs threw for 307-538-3312-21-16 and ran for 62-386-3. Despite my feelings on Cassell I think that he's a better QB than Thigpen. I also think that they will utilize Cassell's running ability as he's a surprisingly decent threat when he takes off. 340-550-3550-20-15 and 60-400-4

Here's the thing. Last year in PFR's scoring Cassel scored 291 fantasy points and ranked 8th. The season you just outlined adds up to 332 fantasy points . . . which would have ranked 5th. Wasn't sure if the "mid-tier" comment was for NFL purposes or fantasy purposes.

PFR? Good point otherwise. I'm high on the rushing but I do believe he'll be a threat but 4 td's is probably a bit much...maybe 2. Otherwise the Chiefs have averaged 3398 yards passing the last 2 years and 19 TD's and I believe he's a better QB than what they've had. By mid-tier I was referring more to his NFL abilities, fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a good/very good situation as he'll have a passing offense and play from behind the 2nd half every game. Although my projections may have goosed him up a little higher than I think he'll end up I think he'll probably end up in the 10-16 range.

I used Pro-Football-Reference's numbers because I had the site open to their fantasy numbers from last year.

what's your opinion on my numbers posted?

 

[David Yudkin]

Let me start off by saying that I'm not a big believer in Cassell and while I don't think he's horrible I think he's a mid-tier QB at best. Fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a decent situation....passing minded coach/coaching staff, team that will be behind early and often and need to pass the ball and decent (not great weapons). Last year with Thigpen and crew the Chiefs threw for 307-538-3312-21-16 and ran for 62-386-3. Despite my feelings on Cassell I think that he's a better QB than Thigpen. I also think that they will utilize Cassell's running ability as he's a surprisingly decent threat when he takes off. 340-550-3550-20-15 and 60-400-4

Here's the thing. Last year in PFR's scoring Cassel scored 291 fantasy points and ranked 8th. The season you just outlined adds up to 332 fantasy points . . . which would have ranked 5th. Wasn't sure if the "mid-tier" comment was for NFL purposes or fantasy purposes.

PFR? Good point otherwise. I'm high on the rushing but I do believe he'll be a threat but 4 td's is probably a bit much...maybe 2. Otherwise the Chiefs have averaged 3398 yards passing the last 2 years and 19 TD's and I believe he's a better QB than what they've had. By mid-tier I was referring more to his NFL abilities, fantasy wise I think he's stepping into a good/very good situation as he'll have a passing offense and play from behind the 2nd half every game. Although my projections may have goosed him up a little higher than I think he'll end up I think he'll probably end up in the 10-16 range.

I used Pro-Football-Reference's numbers because I had the site open to their fantasy numbers from last year.

what's your opinion on my numbers posted?

Probably too high, but it would depend on how you would project other teams. If you ran the numbers on 32 teams and Cassel were say in the 12-15 range I'd say that your numbers overall for everyone were high so that would make sense.But as a standalone projection, I'm guessing the loss of Gonzalez will hurt. So I'd lower the yardage a little but I think the rushing stats will be closer to half what you listed. Passing TDs are probably close. We'll see, but I don't see the Chiefs running 4 wide out of the shotgun all day long (which gave Cassel more scrambling opportunities).

 

[Banger]

Probably too high, but it would depend on how you would project other teams. If you ran the numbers on 32 teams and Cassel were say in the 12-15 range I'd say that your numbers overall for everyone were high so that would make sense.But as a standalone projection, I'm guessing the loss of Gonzalez will hurt. So I'd lower the yardage a little but I think the rushing stats will be closer to half what you listed. Passing TDs are probably close. We'll see, but I don't see the Chiefs running 4 wide out of the shotgun all day long (which gave Cassel more scrambling opportunities).

good point on rushing with the 4 wide formations...thanks.

 

[Bluefire]

Cassell is going from a situation in which he really had no pressure (everyone thought the Pats were done with Cassell as the QB) with one of the best coaching staff, teams, and systems in the NFL, and stepping into the role as "THE MAN" for the first time, with little talent on the team around him, especially on O-line. That spells a recipe for disaster; especially if he struggles. Plus, coaches have a whole off-season to prepare this time.

I think he's going to be at the low end of all the projections.

 

[bigmarc27]

Over-rated clap, clap, clap clap clap. Over-rated clap, clap, clap clap clap.

300-550-3100-15 TDs and 15 INTS

50 for 315 on the ground and another 2 TDs

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

Did anyone in here also post in the Bowe thread? Interested in hearing from people who projected many TDs for the WR.

 

[Avery]

Cassell is going from a situation in which he really had no pressure (everyone thought the Pats were done with Cassell as the QB) with one of the best coaching staff, teams, and systems in the NFL, and stepping into the role as "THE MAN" for the first time, with little talent on the team around him, especially on O-line. That spells a recipe for disaster; especially if he struggles. Plus, coaches have a whole off-season to prepare this time.

I think he's going to be at the low end of all the projections.

Hadn't started since high school and had to replace all-pro Tom Brady week 1.

I can't imagine much more of a pressure filled situation then that.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Probably too high, but it would depend on how you would project other teams. If you ran the numbers on 32 teams and Cassel were say in the 12-15 range I'd say that your numbers overall for everyone were high so that would make sense.But as a standalone projection, I'm guessing the loss of Gonzalez will hurt. So I'd lower the yardage a little but I think the rushing stats will be closer to half what you listed. Passing TDs are probably close. We'll see, but I don't see the Chiefs running 4 wide out of the shotgun all day long (which gave Cassel more scrambling opportunities).

good point on rushing with the 4 wide formations...thanks.

Debating his rushing is probably a nitpick, but what % of plays do you think NE ran 4 wide last year?The flip side is that while KC doesn't have the same passing talent, Thiggy managed to lead the league in rushing yardage from that position, while his rushing attempts were behind only Garrard and Cassel -- on only 11 games started.So, whatever the situation, I'm not sure it'd actually be a huge hindrance for that kind of stat. If anything, the more porous O-line may lead to more broken play scrambles.

 

[David Yudkin]

Probably too high, but it would depend on how you would project other teams. If you ran the numbers on 32 teams and Cassel were say in the 12-15 range I'd say that your numbers overall for everyone were high so that would make sense.But as a standalone projection, I'm guessing the loss of Gonzalez will hurt. So I'd lower the yardage a little but I think the rushing stats will be closer to half what you listed. Passing TDs are probably close. We'll see, but I don't see the Chiefs running 4 wide out of the shotgun all day long (which gave Cassel more scrambling opportunities).

good point on rushing with the 4 wide formations...thanks.

Debating his rushing is probably a nitpick, but what % of plays do you think NE ran 4 wide last year?The flip side is that while KC doesn't have the same passing talent, Thiggy managed to lead the league in rushing yardage from that position, while his rushing attempts were behind only Garrard and Cassel -- on only 11 games started.So, whatever the situation, I'm not sure it'd actually be a huge hindrance for that kind of stat. If anything, the more porous O-line may lead to more broken play scrambles.

I believe the Pats had Cassell in the shotgun something like 83% of the time.

 

[mggoilers]

Hard to predict the numbers, but I know this.

Cassel takes a ton of sacks, 46 last year.

Thigpen did not take quite as much, he took 26 sacks.

This and turnovers will decide who is starting mid season.

I like Cassell to be successful, only if they can run the ball.

That defense needs to step it up.

QB2

 

[switz]

I'm not sure he will keep the job all season.Thigpen, new system/staff, loss of best recieving option are not a great start.

I found it very telling when the Chiefs made it public that they didn't want to renegotiate. If they really bought that Cassel was a significant upgrade over Thigpen, why not renegotiate now when they have all the leverage.Frankly, to me Thigpen looks like the better QB.I believe Cassel will get the start because he was the FA brought in, but I don't think he lasts 10 games as the starter.Sorry, I know projections are required, but I don't have any.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Probably too high, but it would depend on how you would project other teams. If you ran the numbers on 32 teams and Cassel were say in the 12-15 range I'd say that your numbers overall for everyone were high so that would make sense.

But as a standalone projection, I'm guessing the loss of Gonzalez will hurt. So I'd lower the yardage a little but I think the rushing stats will be closer to half what you listed. Passing TDs are probably close. We'll see, but I don't see the Chiefs running 4 wide out of the shotgun all day long (which gave Cassel more scrambling opportunities).

good point on rushing with the 4 wide formations...thanks.

Debating his rushing is probably a nitpick, but what % of plays do you think NE ran 4 wide last year?The flip side is that while KC doesn't have the same passing talent, Thiggy managed to lead the league in rushing yardage from that position, while his rushing attempts were behind only Garrard and Cassel -- on only 11 games started.

So, whatever the situation, I'm not sure it'd actually be a huge hindrance for that kind of stat.

If anything, the more porous O-line may lead to more broken play scrambles.

I believe the Pats had Cassell in the shotgun something like 83% of the time.

That certainly may be true, and I have no idea how much shotgun Cassel sees in '09, but it really kind of skirts around my question on the 4 wide comment.So, I thought I'd do a little investigating on that point:

The following weeks produced some of his higher rushing attempts:

W6 (SD) - 7 RA

W8 (StL) - 7 RA

W10 (Buf) - 9 RA

W11 (NYJ) - 8 RA

W14 (Sea) - 7 RA

W15 (Oak) - 7 RA

Those 6 weeks accounted for 45 of his total 76 attempts, or almost 60%.

I took a look at the formations and results, and if I checked everything out correctly, here's what I came up with:

W6 - sorry, no data from the site I used.

W8 - 3x in 4 wide, resulting in 1 RA and 2 pass completions

W10 - 10x in 4 wide, resulting in 1 RA, 4 completions, and a sack.

W11 - 2x in 4 wide, resulting in 0 RA and 1 PC.

W14 - 12x, resulting in 1 RA (for 1 yd), 5 PC, and 1 sack

W15 - 3x , for 0 RA, def penalty (no play), 1 PC

To total up ---- of the 5 weeks I had data for, we got a total of 30 four wide formations, resulting in 3 of his 38 RA (exactly half his season total) in those games, along with 2 sacks.

I'd say attributing his run production to '4 wide all day' might be a bit of an exaggeration.

 

[bigern1000]

Cassell is going from a situation in which he really had no pressure (everyone thought the Pats were done with Cassell as the QB) with one of the best coaching staff, teams, and systems in the NFL, and stepping into the role as "THE MAN" for the first time, with little talent on the team around him, especially on O-line. That spells a recipe for disaster; especially if he struggles. Plus, coaches have a whole off-season to prepare this time.

I think he's going to be at the low end of all the projections.

Hadn't started since high school and had to replace all-pro Tom Brady week 1.

I can't imagine much more of a pressure filled situation then that.

I would have to agree with this, although I wonder about how his mindset will be now given the fact that he has been anointed a starter since the trade. In a larger market that could be more of an issue, and I can see 330-560-3,800 25 TD - 16 INT passing, 80-420-4 rushing, thus I'm on the optimistic side.That said, I think if you could name one QB1 in which it is almost vital to have his handcuff, Cassel would be the one.

 

[Kool-Aid Larry]

Hard to predict the numbers, but I know this.Cassel takes a ton of sacks, 46 last year.Thigpen did not take quite as much, he took 26 sacks.This and turnovers will decide who is starting mid season.I like Cassell to be successful, only if they can run the ball.That defense needs to step it up.QB2

I don't know if it makes any difference to you, but the O-line was pretty beat up the first half of last year, and Cassel was just breaking in as a starter.He happened to log 28 of his 47 total sacks in the first 7 games, which is right around the time the O-line started to get back together, while picking up 'only' 19 sacks in the final 9 games, with 5 of those coming in the game vs Pitt.Still not great, but maybe not as horrible as it looks at first glance.

 

[brutha]

I'm not buying the hype on Cassel.

i'm not buying that any hype even exists. No Patriots, no Moss, no Gonzo, this is an ugly year and he and Thigpen will prove this was a waste of a Rd 2 pick.

 

[Joe Paterno]

he was a system QB.

What makes you think this? What about the Patriots' system is different from the Chiefs system, and how does that play into Cassel's weaknesses?

 

[Dr. Octopus]

I think Cassell showed tremdous progress as the season wore on and corrected many of his early flaws, notably staring at the pass rush and holding onto the ball too long. His down field accuracy is a weakness but he even improved there as the season wore on. He's a smart accurate QB and will be successful in KC.

I think a lot of his doubters think "career backup" and that he was a product of the NE system but don't put enough effort into the analysis.

People overlook that Cassell was recruited to play QB at USC, perhaps the premiere college football program in the nation so he has talent. All indications were that the competition betweed him and Matt Leinart was razor thin close and could have gone either way. If Cassell would have beat out the former Heisman trophy winner to start at USC, I think its pretty safe to say he would have been a top 10 NFL draft pick. If he had the "rookie" season (first year as a starter) he had under that pedigree no one would be doubting him and all would be talking him up. Funny how a small twist of fate makes some one a "one hit wonder" instead of the next big thing. Personally I think Cassell falls somewhere in the middle, but will have a successful career going forward.

3685 yards passing, 20 TDs, 12 INTs -

220 yards rushing, 3 TDs

 

[bostonfred]

Cassell is #16 so he is right in the middle of the 10-24 crowd. It's just a matter of what flavor is for you. If you want an older established guy there is Palmer, Delhomme, Hasselbeck. If you want younger with possible upside there is Schaub, Ryan, Flacco. Just pick your poison.

I see a lot of separation between some of these guys. Palmer, Hasselbeck, Schaub and Ryan are a whole tier higher than Flacco and Delhomme, at least at this point in the offseason. Otherwise I agree with you.

 

[Chicago Hooligan]

If he had the "rookie" season (first year as a starter) he had under that pedigree no one would be doubting him and all would be talking him up.

If he had that season as a rookie but then went from one of the best teams to one of the worst, it would still be significant.

 

[Dr. Octopus]

If he had the "rookie" season (first year as a starter) he had under that pedigree no one would be doubting him and all would be talking him up.

If he had that season as a rookie but then went from one of the best teams to one of the worst, it would still be significant.

Aren't people arguing Thigpen deserved a shot based on the numbers he put up last year in this offense? The Chiefs were bad for many reasons but the main reason was they could not stop anyone on defense. I mean this team let Lendale White have an 80 yard run on them.Dwayne Bowe, Mark Bradley, Bobby Engram, Larry Johnson and Jamal Charles gives him good skill players to work with. The o-line is young but should show some improvement.