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Player Spotlight: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Matt Ryan Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
I'm on (pretty detailed) record as saying Matt Ryan is an average (QB12-21) NFL QB. Obviously he's in probably the most desirable landing spots for a QB (White/Julio/Gonzo) and has won over the hearts of many a fantasy footballer with his 600+ passing attempts to these top notch targets. The fact that it took him 5 seasons and the most talented trio in the league to put up numbers (QB5) that Matt Schaub (QB4) and Philip Rivers (QB3) did in only their 3rd seasons as starters with lesser surrounding talent and fewer passing attempts, just makes Ryan's slow progression to FF stardom less impressive. Even the unpopular Cutler finished QB5 in just his 2nd season as a starter. But either way, Ryan has undoubtedly arrived. So long as Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez are healthy and productive, and the OC keeps calling passing plays, Matt Ryan will be a solid fantasy play.

Currently, he's going in the 4th round of 12-team leagues as the 6th QB. For those of you that expect him to break into the 8 YPA category, that might be worth it. Personally, I think he's plateaued so I'd rather wait to get similar value several rounds later. I suspect Tony Romo (QB12) will be right around the 4700/32 mark this year. Big Ben was on pace for 4400/30 (QB15) before his injury last year. Or if you are really in the mood for bargain hunting, Culter, Rivers, and Palmer are all in new offenses and very capable of 4000 yards. You might give up 2 ppg if you go that route, but those guys can be had in the 12th round or later. Personally, I'll probably grab a couple of those later guys (Tannehill is also in that mix for me) and play matchups.

Worth noting is that his best offensive lineman (RT) was lost in free agency, their center retired, and the unproductive Turner has been replaced by one of the best backs in the league. Jackson's receiving skills should help Ryan if he needs to dump off due to pressure, but his running ability could help bring back some balance to this offense which would also protect their franchise QB from added pressure. Atlanta was 8th in passing attempts and 27th in RB rushes last year. Ryan also threw 12 touchdowns of 5 yards or less last year as Michael Turner saw his goal line stats slip from 28-31-9 to 22-14-7. Should Jackson prove more dependable/productive than the plodding Turner, Atlanta could turn to him more at the goal line.

4500/30/15

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Matt Ryan is a nice solid QB1. He's QB5 in my board. Some QBs possess more upside (Newtwon, Wilson, RGIII, Kaerpernick) due to their running ability, but I think that Ryan will have the least variance between his expected distribution of results. He has 3 elite options in Julio, Roddy, and Gonzalez, and Steven Jackson's ability to run and catch the ball will make ATL even harder to defend out of their base offense. With the exception of his AZ game where he threw 5 picks, he does a very good job of protecting the football. I will want to roster him if I can get him in the late 4th or early 5th round.......in leagues where QBs go earlier than that, I would rather wait and snag a Wilson or Romo a round later......I have Ryan ranked higher than Wilson and Romo, but the difference isn't really big.

No reason to take Rodgers, Brees or P Manning a couple of rounds earlier......none of them will produce numbers higher enough than Ryan to justify taking them in rounds 2-3.

4600 pass yds, 33 TD, 13 Int

120 rush yds, 1 TD

 

Bayhawks

Footballguy
Ryan has improved pretty steadily since his 2nd year in the league. He has the arm to make virtually any throw, and he is extremely accurate (tied w/P. Manning as the most accurate QB in '12). With the offense built around him, the OC & HC willing (and able) to rely on him, and the weapons at his disposal, I expect him to continue to progress.

630 attempts, 435 completions, 4900 yards, 34 TDs, 30 rushes, 90 yards, 1 TD.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
I'm on (pretty detailed) record as saying Matt Ryan is an average (QB12-21) NFL QB. Obviously he's in probably the most desirable landing spots for a QB (White/Julio/Gonzo) and has won over the hearts of many a fantasy footballer with his 600+ passing attempts to these top notch targets. The fact that it took him 5 seasons and the most talented trio in the league to put up numbers (QB5) that Matt Schaub (QB4) and Philip Rivers (QB3) did in only their 3rd seasons as starters with lesser surrounding talent and fewer passing attempts, just makes Ryan's slow progression to FF stardom less impressive. Even the unpopular Cutler finished QB5 in just his 2nd season as a starter. But either way, Ryan has undoubtedly arrived. So long as Roddy White, Julio Jones, and Tony Gonzalez are healthy and productive, and the OC keeps calling passing plays, Matt Ryan will be a solid fantasy play.

Currently, he's going in the 4th round of 12-team leagues as the 6th QB. For those of you that expect him to break into the 8 YPA category, that might be worth it. Personally, I think he's plateaued so I'd rather wait to get similar value several rounds later. I suspect Tony Romo (QB12) will be right around the 4700/32 mark this year. Big Ben was on pace for 4400/30 (QB15) before his injury last year. Or if you are really in the mood for bargain hunting, Culter, Rivers, and Palmer are all in new offenses and very capable of 4000 yards. You might give up 2 ppg if you go that route, but those guys can be had in the 12th round or later. Personally, I'll probably grab a couple of those later guys (Tannehill is also in that mix for me) and play matchups.

Worth noting is that his best offensive lineman (RT) was lost in free agency, their center retired, and the unproductive Turner has been replaced by one of the best backs in the league. Jackson's receiving skills should help Ryan if he needs to dump off due to pressure, but his running ability could help bring back some balance to this offense which would also protect their franchise QB from added pressure. Atlanta was 8th in passing attempts and 27th in RB rushes last year. Ryan also threw 12 touchdowns of 5 yards or less last year as Michael Turner saw his goal line stats slip from 28-31-9 to 22-14-7. Should Jackson prove more dependable/productive than the plodding Turner, Atlanta could turn to him more at the goal line.

4500/30/15
He hasn't spent 5 seasons with the most talent trio unless you are talking about Marty Booker and Michael Jenkins being better than anyone else. Also I don't think we are playing Fantasy Football of 5 years ago. It is a different league with different players and in this league Ryan is a better Fantasy QB and real life QB then everyone you mention.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
I spend last offseason practically shouting from the rooftops that Ryan was a steal after the top 5-7 QBs were off the board.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650530&page=3

I don't get why this is such rocket science. Over the last two seasons, Ryan's 2010 and 2011 seasons rank #12 and #13 in pass attempts (568 and 565). The Falcons are already a passing team. Ryan's YPA increased from 6.5 to 7.4... maybe something to do with Julio Jones? If Julio is beast this year, and the defense has to pick its poison between him and Roddy White in single coverage, Ryan's YPA must be at least 7.5. There are only 11 QBs in the last two seasons who have attempted more passes than Ryan. Among them, Schaub threw for 4,350; Rivers for 4,600; Eli for 4,900. I'll avoid the Brady/Brees/Stafford/Manning numbers because they are elite and Ryan is not elite. Yet in Julio's rookie year, Ryan has already thrown for 4,100 yards. The Falcons will throw the ball more this year, conservatively 5% more. That's 596 pass attempts. Give him his 62% completion percentage (because as mentioned above, he's a decent quarterback, but not great). 596 attempts x 7.5 YPA = 4,470 yards. He's also put up 340 yards in about 3 quarters of pre-season running the shotgun no huddle offense. Julio and Roddy have put up numbers with him last season, and so far in the preseason. He's done it, he's doing it now, and he's going to do more. I'd say you have to look pretty hard to find reasons not to think that Ryan is at least going to be about QB6, with QB3-4 upside.
People worked REALLY hard against that, despite the fact that the writing was on the wall, similar to FF Ninja above, who basically argues that Ryan isn't a QB1 (despite the fact that he projects him for QB1 numbers) (not sure if that is a Jaws ranking, or Fantasy ranking, because if it's for re-draft it's laughable) for some reason or another, because...

"took him 5 years to put up elite numbers. It only took Matt Schaub 3 years, and Pip Rivers 3 years, and Jay Cutler 2 years."

How this is relevant I have no idea... since when did we count the number of years it takes a QB to become elite and then discount his value? By that logic, Aaron Rodgers is a bum because it took him 4 years to become elite! ;) You know what those guys (Schaub, Rivers, Cutler) had in common those huge years? Typically a high number of passing attempts x high YPA (because of elite WR talent - AJ, Gates, and Marshall). The arbitrary watermarks are about 600 passing attempts and/or 8 YPA. Ryan still plays in an offense tailor-made to approach those numbers.

Turns out, I was over-cautious with Ryan last year. His career 7.2 YPA jumped up to 7.7 (the Julio effect), and went over my 'conservative' estimate of 596 passing attempts to 616. (What's crazy is that in today's NFL, passing for over 600 times is only good enough for 8th most passing attempts!). There is actually room for him to improve on that 7.7 YPA because Julio is still getting better and White hasn't started to decline.

Ryan has everything you look for in an elite QB (traditional, not new age runner):

-fast paced offense that will throw the ball (check)

-elite WR options (check)

-plays in a dome (check)

-still on the upward trajectory of his career (check)

The ONLY potential negative from him, and it's stretch to think about it this way, is the addition of Steven Jackson. One might argue that it will signal a return to a more balanced offense, but I think that unlikely First off, you don't add a 30 year old RB to feed him 300 carries. Second, Turner had his 222 attempts last year, and right around 225-250 would be ideal for Jackson.

Instead of considering SJax a handicap to Ryan, he should be considered an asset, because (1) he can actually run for more than 3.6 YPC and will keep the defense honest, (2) he will be used in both run and passing formations whereas Turner was a clear sign to the defense to stack the box, (3) he's the other end of the spectrum in terms of pass-catching skills (8.2 YPC on over 400 receptions compared to Turners 6.7 YPC last year on 19 receptions).

Projections:

620 passing attempts x 7.8 YPA = 4,800 yards, another 30+ TDs.

Those are historically insane numbers that should no longer cause us to balk, because they are nonetheless the new norm in the NFL, and we should dismiss irrelevant or misplaced arguments against him (Can he win a Superbowl? Did it take him too many years to become elite? Will the addition of an all-time great pass catching 30 year old RB cap his upside?).

I actually STILL see some value for Ryan, although the ADP data is fast catching up. Brady is falling and Ryan is rising - currently 6.01 and 6.02 as QB5 and QB6 on FFC. I would ballpark Ryan around Stafford. If you can get Ryan as the QB6 or 7 off the board (i.e. AFTER some poor soul takes Brady), you've gotten value. The other value Ryan represents is that he will put historical numbers yet again, you can get him in the mid-rounds, and he won't have much up and down week to week. Plus, he doesn't miss many games. Even if you take him AT value (QB5 or 6, tossup with Stafford), you have minimized risk in the mid-rounds when not much else is available (BJGE? Decker?)

I can definitely appreciate other arguments for waiting on QBs (i.e Romo, Luck, trio of Runners, even Cutler and Tannehil) but those are guys you might have to sweat week to week and gamble with matchups. Such is the headache of the QBBC.

Ryan is a gold standard just outside the elite-of-elite, but with as much a chance as anyone to lead the league in yardage. Book another 4,500-5000 yards passing and 30-35 TDs.

 
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TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
As a Falcon fan, my autumnal emotional fortunes are increasingly riding on his right arm. I do think over the years, despite my allegiance…I’ve been able to be objective about Ryan’s performance and outlook. I don’t necessarily think it’s been all candy and roses with regard to his development. I did in the past feel as if from a production standpoint, he was leaving too much on the table.

But last year, he got it.

In truth, his ascent to being one of those top tier prolific QB’s began in the second half of 2011. A lot of people overlooked that in large part because of his putrid playoff performance against the Giants that year (24-2). But he was taking that next step and in 2012…he put together a big time 16 game season. You can argue arm strength which I don’t think holds too much water…Ryan does not want for the ability to make any necessary throws although guys like Stafford and Rodgers do have bigger arms. but at the end of the day...there is little Ryan can't do on the football field and the offense is now fully built around his abilities.

A lot of time in FF, you discount the view of a homer on certain players. I could delve into statistical analysis on Ryan which I am prone to do as to why I think he’ll perform at a certain level. But for Ryan…I’ll go a little deeper.

At the end of Ryan’s previous 3 seasons (I don’t count his rookie year because Falcons fans were expecting a best case scenario of 4 wins going in – we lacked any type of perspective), the Falcons were either 1) booted from the playoffs in embarrassing fashion or 2) didn’t make the playoffs. At the end of those seasons, as a Falcon fan despite a 32-16 regular season record over that stretch, each season ended with significant doubt about the championship timber of the Falcons. A large part of that had to do with Ryan. He was good. Very good. But when you watched guys like Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady…even Eli Manning, Ryan wasn’t them. I always held out belief, or perhaps hope is a better term, that he could be them. But until 2012 he hadn’t even really shown signs, almost as if even in Year 4, some moments were just too big. That changed in 2012. Now Ryan isn’t those guys yet, and there is no doubt his supporting cast is perhaps as good as there is when you talk skill position players. But it was as if the Matrix slowed down for him. He still has to get better…despite his penchant for come from behind wins, it’s strange that very few have come via the ‘signature’ variety.

I’ll tell you this…I was in the building for Aaron Rodgers destruction of the Falcons in the 2010 playoffs. His 31/36 366 3/0 performance was as dominant and flawless a performance as I’ve ever seen. Being in the building that night…he drained the hope out of every single fan in the building with each completion. For the first half of the NFC Conference Championship Game, Matt Ryan was every bit as good. His 18/24 271 3/0. Alas, it wasn’t meant to be and as such, Ryan failed to seize his place amongst the games great QB’s of today. The fact that he couldn’t close the deal is as stark an answer to why he isn’t yet elite, but the first half showed that he’s absolutely knocking on the door. Despite the gut punch loss, this has been the first time I truly believed the Falcons were a Championship caliber team. Does that mean they win the SB this year? No…and couldn’t tell you for sure even if I believed it with every ounce of belief I can muster, but I do feel the Falcons have a rightful place in that conversation leading up to this season rather than being a team that compiles win after win but no championship grit. And that has everything to do with Ryan.

Ryan’s climb to being at an elite-level has been slow and steady…kind of befitting his plain spoken lower key style. He doesn’t lead his team in pregame war chants like Drew Brees. He has no championship belt like Aaron Rodgers. Ryan’s ascent has seemingly been built more along the lines of a brick by brick process. When you simply look at the pace of that process, you wonder why it’s not moving faster…but when you step back give it time you see just how far he’s come. It’s not complete yet in terms of being in that category. But what he at this moment now is a prolific FF QB, one that you start with confidence week after week. The addition of Steven Jackson diversifies the offense even more allowing Ryan and Dirk Koetter even more options in the passing game. For me, you can call me a homer but I think I’ve been spot on about Ryan in the past and I wouldn’t discount my outlook for him.

Previoius Predictions:

2012: 374 Completions, 588 Attempts, 4621 Passing Yards, 34 TD’s 12 INT’s
2011: 337 Completions, 529 Attempts, 4001 Passing Yards, 32 TD's 13 INT's; 40 Rushes, 93 Yards, 0 TD's


If you look at his last 25 games (actually 24.25 since the last game of the 2011 season, he was removed after a quarter) which represent almost 1/3rd of his career, the most recent 1/3rd, Ryan has put up the following:

615 Completions
929 Attempts
7213 Passing Yards
52 TD’s
18 INT’s


If we calculate 16 game averages on that production, you get:

406 Completions
613 Pass Attempts
4759 Passing Yards
66.2% Completion Rate
7.76 YPA (FYI…this number is .02 higher than Brees’ career YPA as a Saint)
34 TD’s
12 INT’s


In looking at Ryan's weapons, realize that Julio has only been one of them for 32 of those games, and if you break it down even more and realize that of the 7 games I'm not including in the above calculations, Julio missed close to three of them...Ryan really hasn't resembled the dink and dunker he admittedly seemed to be becoming prior to the drafting of Jones. I do think if you looked at Ryan after the 2010 season and made some of the claims in the Julio thread, you’d have more than a leg to stand on. But when you talk about the weaponry Ryan now has, don’t ignore the fact that pre-Julio, Michael Jenkins was a starting WR for the Falcons. That’s called anti-weaponry. When you throw in ultra-conservative OC Mike Mularley who for whatever reason never fully unleashed the passing game during his Atlanta stint (instead choosing to run Michael Turner into the ground)...you start to understand why the pace of Ryan's development has seemed slow.

The key for Ryan will be can he continue to perform at this level which he's relatively recently established. Philip Rivers wasn't able to although a degradation of the personnel on the Chargers could be as much to blame as any factor. But it does serve to show that great QB's do actually require great weapons in order to produce at great levels.

Joe Montana isn't Joe Montana without Jerry Rice, nor is Steve Young.

Troy Aikman isn't Troy Aikman without Michael Irvin or Emmitt Smith.

Jim Kelly isn't Jim Kelly without Andre Reed or Thurman Thomas.

Peyton Manning isn't Peyton Manning without Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne.

I'll wrap up my Tolstoy-esque Ryan piece by saying this. Of the young(er) QB's in the game, he approaches the position from a leadership, take command, eliminate distractions, student of the game standpoint better than any other young QB. Every year, he gets better at the mental/intellectual aspects of the positon, probably at a better rate than the physical aspects of it. With the weapons he has and the approach he takes...he's going to produce steadily throughout the course of the season but now he does so at near prolific levels.

Prediction: 401 Completions 597 Attempts 4725 Passing Yards 35 TD’s 9 INT’s.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
Nice work on that 25 games stats... it really illustrates how reliable he has been. I think it also dispels the idea that last year was some kind of high-water mark.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
karmarooster said:
I spend last offseason practically shouting from the rooftops that Ryan was a steal after the top 5-7 QBs were off the board.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650530&page=3

People worked REALLY hard against that, despite the fact that the writing was on the wall, similar to FF Ninja above, who basically argues that Ryan isn't a QB1 (despite the fact that he projects him for QB1 numbers) (not sure if that is a Jaws ranking, or Fantasy ranking, because if it's for re-draft it's laughable) for some reason or another, because...
Holy crap, where did you get such foresight? Maybe you were shouting too loudly because EVERYONE was already drafting him right after the top 5-7 QBs off the board. I just looked at an 8/27/12 ADP and Matt Ryan was the consensus QB8. So... good work with your exclusive prediction of the steal that was Matt Ryan at QB8.

If you'd read my post more carefully, I pretty clearly said he's not a top 11 NFL QB. I never said he wasn't a fantasy QB1. I specifically said that so long as he's throwing the ball 600+ times to the likes of Julio/Roddy/Gonzo that he'd be a solid fantasy play.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
karmarooster said:
I spend last offseason practically shouting from the rooftops that Ryan was a steal after the top 5-7 QBs were off the board.

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=650530&page=3

People worked REALLY hard against that, despite the fact that the writing was on the wall, similar to FF Ninja above, who basically argues that Ryan isn't a QB1 (despite the fact that he projects him for QB1 numbers) (not sure if that is a Jaws ranking, or Fantasy ranking, because if it's for re-draft it's laughable) for some reason or another, because...
Holy crap, where did you get such foresight? Maybe you were shouting too loudly because EVERYONE was already drafting him right after the top 5-7 QBs off the board. I just looked at an 8/27/12 ADP and Matt Ryan was the consensus QB8. So... good work with your exclusive prediction of the steal that was Matt Ryan at QB8.

If you'd read my post more carefully, I pretty clearly said he's not a top 11 NFL QB. I never said he wasn't a fantasy QB1. I specifically said that so long as he's throwing the ball 600+ times to the likes of Julio/Roddy/Gonzo that he'd be a solid fantasy play.
Apparently, not everyone got the memo. Some had him pegged as low as QB11. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=645255&p=14512834. Specifically, you:

Atlanta threw the ball the 4th most in the NFL last year yet you hear people talking about them throwing more and running less. I'm not sure I buy it. Maybe the OC can squeeze more productivity out of Ryan, although his 7.4 ypa was a marked improvement upon his last two years (6.5 ypa each). If he reverts to Matty Mediocre then he's not going to be helping anyone's fantasy team even if ATL does throw the ball 37 times a game again. Anytime you switch offensive coordinators it makes projections even more difficult than they already were. There's a chance Matt Ryan (QB11) takes a step forward, but I'd rather gamble on Big Ben who has recently rocketed up the ADP chart to QB12. If I miss there, I'd probably rather wait a couple rounds and pair up Cutler with Palmer or Fitzpatrick. With the possibility of the Ravens' defense being more porous this year, maybe they throw the ball more and Flacco regains his 7.4 ypa form and surprises everyone. I guess what I'm saying, is that you probably won't regret missing out on Matt Ryan this year. 575 attempts @ 7.0 ypa = 4025 yds 28 TD 17 INT, 75 rushing yds 1 TD
Problems with your prediction:

-assuming that Ryan's YPA would go down because it was 6.5 in the two years before Julio arrived

-assuming he would revert to 'mediocre' even if Atlanta threw the ball 37 times per game (they actually threw 38 times a game)... a QB would have to really suck to throw 600+ times and be mediocre in total volume.

-picking the likes of Big Ben, Cutler, Palmer, Flacco,and Fitzpatrick over Ryan (what do they not have? aside form Cutler/Marshal, a WR the caliber of either Julio or Roddy, and none play on teams that have demonstrated a pass-first mentality. Not to mention none of them play in domes.)

I don't understand why you'd label me a dummy for calling a spade a spade ("hey look everyone, Ryan throws the ball a ton and has great targets! Maybe he'll be a pretty good fantasy option!") when you, yourself, failed to realize that he was a spade, and favored very AVERAGE QBs, when there was nothing to indicate any of those QBs would throw as much, or throw to targets as good as Ryan's.

 
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FF Ninja

Footballguy
Apparently, not everyone got the memo. Some had him pegged as low as QB11. http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index.php?showtopic=645255&p=14512834. Specifically, you:

Atlanta threw the ball the 4th most in the NFL last year yet you hear people talking about them throwing more and running less. I'm not sure I buy it. Maybe the OC can squeeze more productivity out of Ryan, although his 7.4 ypa was a marked improvement upon his last two years (6.5 ypa each). If he reverts to Matty Mediocre then he's not going to be helping anyone's fantasy team even if ATL does throw the ball 37 times a game again. Anytime you switch offensive coordinators it makes projections even more difficult than they already were. There's a chance Matt Ryan (QB11) takes a step forward, but I'd rather gamble on Big Ben who has recently rocketed up the ADP chart to QB12. If I miss there, I'd probably rather wait a couple rounds and pair up Cutler with Palmer or Fitzpatrick. With the possibility of the Ravens' defense being more porous this year, maybe they throw the ball more and Flacco regains his 7.4 ypa form and surprises everyone. I guess what I'm saying, is that you probably won't regret missing out on Matt Ryan this year. 575 attempts @ 7.0 ypa = 4025 yds 28 TD 17 INT, 75 rushing yds 1 TD
Problems with your prediction:

-assuming that Ryan's YPA would go down because it was 6.5 in the two years before Julio arrived

-assuming he would revert to 'mediocre' even if Atlanta threw the ball 37 times per game (they actually threw 38 times a game)... a QB would have to really suck to throw 600+ times and be mediocre in total volume.

-picking the likes of Big Ben, Cutler, Palmer, Flacco,and Fitzpatrick over Ryan (what do they not have? aside form Cutler/Marshal, a WR the caliber of either Julio or Roddy, and none play on teams that have demonstrated a pass-first mentality. Not to mention none of them play in domes.)

I don't understand why you'd label me a dummy for calling a spade a spade ("hey look everyone, Ryan throws the ball a ton and has great targets! Maybe he'll be a pretty good fantasy option!") when you, yourself, failed to realize that he was a spade, and favored very AVERAGE QBs, when there was nothing to indicate any of those QBs would throw as much, or throw to targets as good as Ryan's.
Um, I was merely stating his ADP as of that time. It obviously increased as we neared the beginning of the season. By 8/27/12, he was the 8th QB off the board on average according to FBG.

I don't label you a dummy for calling a spade a spade. I call you a tool for saying you made some great prediction that was exactly in line with average draft position.

At the time of that quote, I was merely advocating a value system. I'd rather stream QB than invest early in a guy who had put up 6.5 YPA two of the last 3 years. I agree that Julio has had a great influence in Ryan's stats. I pretty blatantly said that in my original post in this thread. However, with Matt Ryan having just thrown the 4th most passing attempts and finished QB8, I was not excited about spending a QB1 pick on him in a new offense. Even with his increased YPA he was still not very productive per attempt. If the new OC had decreased Ryan's attempts OR Ryan reverted, you're left with a dud. So I took whoever fell to me and doubled him up with another late round pick. I often ended up with Big Ben (as already mentioned was on 4400/30 pace before injury) and Palmer. Not world beaters, but they worked fine if you played the matchups. I ended up with Cutler as my QB2 last year in a couple leagues. He was a bust, but he was a cheap bust.

 

karmarooster

Footballguy
I'm not going to call you names, but I think there are some major problems with your train of thought here.

-I got the totally obvious prediction right

-You get sarcastic with the 'holy crap!' comment

-You got it wrong, even though it was obvious

Now, we all get tons of predictions wrong every year; I certainly do. And yet it would be wrong for me to start getting sarcastic with someone else's accurate prediction for being obvious when my own prediction was wrong.

It seems like you have some sort of agenda with Ryan. Maybe you fancy yourself a talent evaluator like Jaws and have analyzed Ryan's every throw and concluded, in some sort of vacuum, that he's only 11th best QB in the NFL. That might be why your tone ITT has been decidedly negative, despite pegging him for 4,500/30. I don't pretend to be a scout or to really be capable of evaluating inherent talent. But I don't really need to because half of fantasy is opportunity and situation. Ryan has both the opportunity and situation, and at least enough talent around him, to be an elite fantasy QB.

Returning to Ryan this year, you argue that he has plateaued, despite that fact that Julio is still developing and hasn't hit his ceiling yet, Roddy remains as elite as ever, his HOF TE is returning to grab TDs, and he just upgrade at RB. All the while Ryan himself is still growing... 28 years old, now in his 2nd year running an all-out aerial attack, entering his 6th season.

See this article for more info on QB careers and why saying Ryan has plateaued in his 5th season as age 28 (with a still developing athletic freak WR) doesn't make much sense:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=cummingscareerarcsqb13

This year, Ryan is a steal AGAIN at his current ADP of QB6. He has an excellent chance of finishing in the top 4-5 QBs, and even if he finishes right at QB6, he still is a nice value because he plays 16 games a year, and has minimal variation week to week. I would draft him ahead of Brady, in the 5th round.

 

butcher boy

Footballguy
Not sure why there's an argument over such a consistently good player.

Ryan is currently my 4th ranked QB.

4589/31/13

 

Borden

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
Worth noting is that his best offensive lineman (RT) was lost in free agency, their center retired
Mike Johnson (RT) and Peter Konz will be their replacements. Konz was their back up for the guards and center last year as a rookie and ended up starting 10 games (mostly at guard I believe) last year. This will be Johnson's 4th year. Last year was the first that he was with the team all year and he ended up getting the start once.

The Falcons must believe in these guys since that didn't spend any picks on offensive linemen (although they did bring a few UDFAs, I believe). Konz was a second round pick last year from Wisconsin and Johnson a 3rd rounder in 2010 out of Bama. Although, Konz appears to be a solid player who should know what he's doing as the center, the loss of McClure is significant. McClure was a long standing Falcon and the centerpiece (no pun intended) for that line.

I think it's a positive that both replacements came from within the organization but it might take a little bit of time for this line to gel and I'm not sure if Johnson will be ready to fill in for the former Pro Bowler Tyson Clabo. Being cap cut I think Clabo will be missed.

TheDirtyWord may have more insight on the loss of Clabo.

How this affects Matt Ryan:

I think we might see more short quick passes to start the year and Steven Jackson staying in Pass Pro more often. Perhaps a few more draws. I don't expect a major decline in line play that would see Ryan under attack all game but a few missed assignments should be expected and likely an increase in his sack and hurry numbers.

 

Pigskin Fanatic

Footballguy
FF Ninja said:
Worth noting is that his best offensive lineman (RT) was lost in free agency, their center retired
Mike Johnson (RT) and Peter Konz will be their replacements. Konz was their back up for the guards and center last year as a rookie and ended up starting 10 games (mostly at guard I believe) last year. This will be Johnson's 4th year. Last year was the first that he was with the team all year and he ended up getting the start once.

The Falcons must believe in these guys since that didn't spend any picks on offensive linemen (although they did bring a few UDFAs, I believe). Konz was a second round pick last year from Wisconsin and Johnson a 3rd rounder in 2010 out of Bama. Although, Konz appears to be a solid player who should know what he's doing as the center, the loss of McClure is significant. McClure was a long standing Falcon and the centerpiece (no pun intended) for that line.

I think it's a positive that both replacements came from within the organization but it might take a little bit of time for this line to gel and I'm not sure if Johnson will be ready to fill in for the former Pro Bowler Tyson Clabo. Being cap cut I think Clabo will be missed.

TheDirtyWord may have more insight on the loss of Clabo.

How this affects Matt Ryan:

I think we might see more short quick passes to start the year and Steven Jackson staying in Pass Pro more often. Perhaps a few more draws. I don't expect a major decline in line play that would see Ryan under attack all game but a few missed assignments should be expected and likely an increase in his sack and hurry numbers.
Nice insight, thanks for posting this. Will be looking at this situation when camp opens, I am high on Ryan this year and was hoping to see him break into the top elite group with all of the weapons around him.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
As to the loss of Clabo, I think a lot of Falcon fans were surprised when this happened. It was not expected. With that said, in rewatching some of the 2012 season this off-season which I largely did after Clabo was released, there were times (more than I had remembered) where Clabo's pass pro broke down. He was never a liability, but his strength was always run blocking. As such, I was able to understand the rationale behind the move.

The guy the Falcons hope wins that RT job is Lamar Holmes, their 2012 3rd rounder, but at the end of the day...this may be the largest question mark on the Falcons but if it becomes an issue, I could see the Falcons going with more 2 TE sets with Levine Toilolo, the massive TE from Stanford providing additional pass protectin support.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
I'm not going to call you names, but I think there are some major problems with your train of thought here.

-I got the totally obvious prediction right

-You get sarcastic with the 'holy crap!' comment

-You got it wrong, even though it was obvious

Now, we all get tons of predictions wrong every year; I certainly do. And yet it would be wrong for me to start getting sarcastic with someone else's accurate prediction for being obvious when my own prediction was wrong.

It seems like you have some sort of agenda with Ryan. Maybe you fancy yourself a talent evaluator like Jaws and have analyzed Ryan's every throw and concluded, in some sort of vacuum, that he's only 11th best QB in the NFL. That might be why your tone ITT has been decidedly negative, despite pegging him for 4,500/30. I don't pretend to be a scout or to really be capable of evaluating inherent talent. But I don't really need to because half of fantasy is opportunity and situation. Ryan has both the opportunity and situation, and at least enough talent around him, to be an elite fantasy QB.

Returning to Ryan this year, you argue that he has plateaued, despite that fact that Julio is still developing and hasn't hit his ceiling yet, Roddy remains as elite as ever, his HOF TE is returning to grab TDs, and he just upgrade at RB. All the while Ryan himself is still growing... 28 years old, now in his 2nd year running an all-out aerial attack, entering his 6th season.

See this article for more info on QB careers and why saying Ryan has plateaued in his 5th season as age 28 (with a still developing athletic freak WR) doesn't make much sense:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=cummingscareerarcsqb13

This year, Ryan is a steal AGAIN at his current ADP of QB6. He has an excellent chance of finishing in the top 4-5 QBs, and even if he finishes right at QB6, he still is a nice value because he plays 16 games a year, and has minimal variation week to week. I would draft him ahead of Brady, in the 5th round.
*sigh* You are still missing it... what I did was laugh at you for acting like you called a longshot when it was actually his consensus ADP. Beating your chest about ranking a guy 8th when his consensus ADP was 8th is just ridiculous.

Furthermore, I don't think I ever supplied a rank for Matt Ryan, but I did advocate passing on him and going with a QB streaming approach because I prefer to wait on QBs. So I didn't get anything wrong. Pairing up Big Ben (QB13 at 8/27/12) with Palmer (QB20) would have given you similar stats to Ryan (QB8 at 8/27/12) for a cheaper price.

This year Matt Ryan is a 4th round pick. I plan to stream QB again with the likes of Rivers (12th round) and Tannehill (14th round).

 

Bayhawks

Footballguy
I'm not going to call you names, but I think there are some major problems with your train of thought here.

-I got the totally obvious prediction right

-You get sarcastic with the 'holy crap!' comment

-You got it wrong, even though it was obvious

Now, we all get tons of predictions wrong every year; I certainly do. And yet it would be wrong for me to start getting sarcastic with someone else's accurate prediction for being obvious when my own prediction was wrong.

It seems like you have some sort of agenda with Ryan. Maybe you fancy yourself a talent evaluator like Jaws and have analyzed Ryan's every throw and concluded, in some sort of vacuum, that he's only 11th best QB in the NFL. That might be why your tone ITT has been decidedly negative, despite pegging him for 4,500/30. I don't pretend to be a scout or to really be capable of evaluating inherent talent. But I don't really need to because half of fantasy is opportunity and situation. Ryan has both the opportunity and situation, and at least enough talent around him, to be an elite fantasy QB.

Returning to Ryan this year, you argue that he has plateaued, despite that fact that Julio is still developing and hasn't hit his ceiling yet, Roddy remains as elite as ever, his HOF TE is returning to grab TDs, and he just upgrade at RB. All the while Ryan himself is still growing... 28 years old, now in his 2nd year running an all-out aerial attack, entering his 6th season.

See this article for more info on QB careers and why saying Ryan has plateaued in his 5th season as age 28 (with a still developing athletic freak WR) doesn't make much sense:

http://subscribers.footballguys.com/apps/article.php?article=cummingscareerarcsqb13

This year, Ryan is a steal AGAIN at his current ADP of QB6. He has an excellent chance of finishing in the top 4-5 QBs, and even if he finishes right at QB6, he still is a nice value because he plays 16 games a year, and has minimal variation week to week. I would draft him ahead of Brady, in the 5th round.
*sigh* You are still missing it... what I did was laugh at you for acting like you called a longshot when it was actually his consensus ADP. Beating your chest about ranking a guy 8th when his consensus ADP was 8th is just ridiculous.

Furthermore, I don't think I ever supplied a rank for Matt Ryan, but I did advocate passing on him and going with a QB streaming approach because I prefer to wait on QBs. So I didn't get anything wrong. Pairing up Big Ben (QB13 at 8/27/12) with Palmer (QB20) would have given you similar stats to Ryan (QB8 at 8/27/12) for a cheaper price.

This year Matt Ryan is a 4th round pick. I plan to stream QB again with the likes of Rivers (12th round) and Tannehill (14th round).
:hijacked: You know, I still don't agree with you about Ryan, but I'm starting to come around (somewhat) on Rivers. I don't think he is going to return to the elite status he held a few years ago, but if he can bounce back somewhat, he may be a viable part of a RBBC. I'll have to look into his schedule /hijack

 

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