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Player Spotlight: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions

Player Page Link: Matthew Stafford Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

jurb26

Footballguy
Wow, I can't believe there is absolutely no discussion on Stafford.

Stafford seems like a guy who will be rather polarizing this year. Coming off a historic 5000 yd and 41 TD season in which he appeared to break out, he followed it up with what many saw as a flop of just under 5000 yds and 21 TDs. Tough crowd I suppose! All things considered, Stafford's 2012 campaign was a disappointment though. The lack of TDs and his penchant for throwing picks, 17, soured what could have otherwise been a very strong season. Basically, Stafford took a step back in every statistical measure possible last year except passing attempts. Stafford threw the ball an astonishing 727 time! A lot of this could be directly related to the total lack of a running game in Det and a defense that was regularly embarrassed by opposing teams.

So what will 2013 bring and what will change in Det? Well the obvious bombshell for Det this off season was the acquisition of Reggie Bush. Bush is what many consider to the the missing ingredient from what potentially is an elite offense in Det. I'm not totally sure of that, but I do believe Bush is the ingredient Stafford needs to improve his per pass efficiency. Bush should provide Det with the explosive plays out of the backfield Best once did but with a far better between the tackles running game. Mix in Leshore every so often and suddenly some of the pressure Stafford was carrying is relieved.

I expect a decent reduction in pass attempts this year from Det, but improved effectiveness when they do. Make no mistake, this is still going to be a pass happy team. Just not pass happy to the point of it looking like a 12 year old is playing Madden.

655 attempts, 406 completions, 4716 yds, 34 TDs, 15 Ints

30 carries, 105 yds, 1 TD

 

Andy Dufresne

Footballguy
I like Stafford but don't like that they lost both starting tackles.

Bush should help but they need Broyles to step up.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace.

I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit.

640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD

You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
First, the good news: From a statistical point of view, Stafford's 20 TDs in 727 PA last season (2.8% rate) was every bit as much an outlier as Russell Wilson's 6.6% rate of 26 TDs in 393 attempts - maybe more so when you consider how mediocre the Lions' run game was last season. It seemed like Calvin getting tackled at the 1-yard line followed by a Leshoure gimme was an every-week highlight on the Red Zone channel. (Fun fact: if Stafford had maintained his 2011 efficiency numbers across his 2012 pass attempts, he'd have thrown for 5,525 yards and 45 TD's.)

Now, the bad news: Not only does Stafford have zero chance of throwing the ball 727 times again this season, but it's not as though last year's terrible efficiency stats resulted from a lack of talent in the passing game. I certainly didn't see every snap of the Lions' season, but I nonetheless saw no shortage of absolutely baffling decision-making by Stafford. Add to that a OL that was porous last year and has gotten worse, and an upgraded run game (Stafford ran / snuck for 4 TD's last year, another thing that's very unlikely to repeat) and signs don't exactly point to a 2011 reprise.

Even if he gets back above a 4% TD rate and 60% CR, and even if he continues to throw it 40 times a game, I have a hard time crafting a scenario that would represent real upside to his current ADP of QB9-10. I'd happily consider him as one of the first QB2's off the board, but I'm certain he'll be gone before then.

Projection: 390 comp / 640 att, 4,650 yds, 26 TD, 18 Int; 30 rush, 111 yds, 1 TD
 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant said:
First, the good news: From a statistical point of view, Stafford's 20 TDs in 727 PA last season (2.8% rate) was every bit as much an outlier as Russell Wilson's 6.6% rate of 26 TDs in 393 attempts - maybe more so when you consider how mediocre the Lions' run game was last season. It seemed like Calvin getting tackled at the 1-yard line followed by a Leshoure gimme was an every-week highlight on the Red Zone channel. (Fun fact: if Stafford had maintained his 2011 efficiency numbers across his 2012 pass attempts, he'd have thrown for 5,525 yards and 45 TD's.)

Now, the bad news: Not only does Stafford have zero chance of throwing the ball 727 times again this season, but it's not as though last year's terrible efficiency stats resulted from a lack of talent in the passing game. I certainly didn't see every snap of the Lions' season, but I nonetheless saw no shortage of absolutely baffling decision-making by Stafford. Add to that a OL that was porous last year and has gotten worse, and an upgraded run game (Stafford ran / snuck for 4 TD's last year, another thing that's very unlikely to repeat) and signs don't exactly point to a 2011 reprise.

Even if he gets back above a 4% TD rate and 60% CR, and even if he continues to throw it 40 times a game, I have a hard time crafting a scenario that would represent real upside to his current ADP of QB9-10. I'd happily consider him as one of the first QB2's off the board, but I'm certain he'll be gone before then.

Projection: 390 comp / 640 att, 4,650 yds, 26 TD, 18 Int; 30 rush, 111 yds, 1 TD
Kind of a tale of two posts here. I'm a bit torn as well. You list reasons why Stafford had a down year, and give positives why he may not repeat that type of poor season. Yet, you make the bolded comment.

2011 was the scenario you're looking for. Stafford certainly has upside from QB10.

Everyone here knows he's likely to throw the ball 650 times, and there are plenty of reasons why he could challenge for a top 3 QB finish. As many reasons as any of the other QBs going ahead of him have. He's really the only one who's done it before, and each of those guys have their risks as well.

That being said, I don't see him repeating 2011. The Lions desperately need another WR to step up. With Reggie Bush converting some easy first downs and helping Detroit move the chains I do see Stafford being better though. This offense looked unstoppable when there was a threat in the backfield. LeShoure did not threaten the defense the way Bush will.

I also don't see him repeating 2012 either, so my projection is somewhere in between.

650 attempts. 61% complete. 7.4 YPA. 4,810 yards. 30 TDs. 17 INTs.

 

Ray Finkle

Footballguy
Mr. Irrelevant said:
First, the good news: From a statistical point of view, Stafford's 20 TDs in 727 PA last season (2.8% rate) was every bit as much an outlier as Russell Wilson's 6.6% rate of 26 TDs in 393 attempts - maybe more so when you consider how mediocre the Lions' run game was last season. It seemed like Calvin getting tackled at the 1-yard line followed by a Leshoure gimme was an every-week highlight on the Red Zone channel. (Fun fact: if Stafford had maintained his 2011 efficiency numbers across his 2012 pass attempts, he'd have thrown for 5,525 yards and 45 TD's.)

Now, the bad news: Not only does Stafford have zero chance of throwing the ball 727 times again this season, but it's not as though last year's terrible efficiency stats resulted from a lack of talent in the passing game. I certainly didn't see every snap of the Lions' season, but I nonetheless saw no shortage of absolutely baffling decision-making by Stafford. Add to that a OL that was porous last year and has gotten worse, and an upgraded run game (Stafford ran / snuck for 4 TD's last year, another thing that's very unlikely to repeat) and signs don't exactly point to a 2011 reprise.

Even if he gets back above a 4% TD rate and 60% CR, and even if he continues to throw it 40 times a game, I have a hard time crafting a scenario that would represent real upside to his current ADP of QB9-10. I'd happily consider him as one of the first QB2's off the board, but I'm certain he'll be gone before then.

Projection: 390 comp / 640 att, 4,650 yds, 26 TD, 18 Int; 30 rush, 111 yds, 1 TD
Kind of a tale of two posts here. I'm a bit torn as well. You list reasons why Stafford had a down year, and give positives why he may not repeat that type of poor season. Yet, you make the bolded comment.

2011 was the scenario you're looking for. Stafford certainly has upside from QB10.

Everyone here knows he's likely to throw the ball 650 times, and there are plenty of reasons why he could challenge for a top 3 QB finish. As many reasons as any of the other QBs going ahead of him have. He's really the only one who's done it before, and each of those guys have their risks as well.

That being said, I don't see him repeating 2011. The Lions desperately need another WR to step up. With Reggie Bush converting some easy first downs and helping Detroit move the chains I do see Stafford being better though. This offense looked unstoppable when there was a threat in the backfield. LeShoure did not threaten the defense the way Bush will.

I also don't see him repeating 2012 either, so my projection is somewhere in between.

650 attempts. 61% complete. 7.4 YPA. 4,810 yards. 30 TDs. 17 INTs.
That's basically the exact projection I came up with as well. Tack on 30/105/2 for rushing.

 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Stafford had a disappointing 2012, and that is driving down his ADP. But we all know he's capable of 5000 passing yards, 35+ TDs, has the best WR on the planet to throw to, and now has a nice new toy in Reggie Bush to make DET much more harder to defend. I see a nice comeback year, and you can get Stafford at a discount. There is no way that Stafford will throw the ball as much as he did in 2012, but I see the efficiency improving. At his ADP of QB10, please sign me up. He has top 5 QB upside, but there is some risk involved, but there are a slew of solid backup QBs that you can take later to mitigate that risk.

4650 pass yds, 32 TD, 17 Int

100 rush yds, 1 TD

 

cstu

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace.

I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit.

640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD

You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
Even if you want to project those stats who in his range (QB7+) has a better chance at posting 5000/40?

Frankly, I'd rather have Stafford over even Ryan simply because of his upside to produce big in the playoffs.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
First, the good news: From a statistical point of view, Stafford's 20 TDs in 727 PA last season (2.8% rate) was every bit as much an outlier as Russell Wilson's 6.6% rate of 26 TDs in 393 attempts - maybe more so when you consider how mediocre the Lions' run game was last season. It seemed like Calvin getting tackled at the 1-yard line followed by a Leshoure gimme was an every-week highlight on the Red Zone channel. (Fun fact: if Stafford had maintained his 2011 efficiency numbers across his 2012 pass attempts, he'd have thrown for 5,525 yards and 45 TD's.)

Now, the bad news: Not only does Stafford have zero chance of throwing the ball 727 times again this season, but it's not as though last year's terrible efficiency stats resulted from a lack of talent in the passing game. I certainly didn't see every snap of the Lions' season, but I nonetheless saw no shortage of absolutely baffling decision-making by Stafford. Add to that a OL that was porous last year and has gotten worse, and an upgraded run game (Stafford ran / snuck for 4 TD's last year, another thing that's very unlikely to repeat) and signs don't exactly point to a 2011 reprise.

Even if he gets back above a 4% TD rate and 60% CR, and even if he continues to throw it 40 times a game, I have a hard time crafting a scenario that would represent real upside to his current ADP of QB9-10. I'd happily consider him as one of the first QB2's off the board, but I'm certain he'll be gone before then.

Projection: 390 comp / 640 att, 4,650 yds, 26 TD, 18 Int; 30 rush, 111 yds, 1 TD
Kind of a tale of two posts here. I'm a bit torn as well. You list reasons why Stafford had a down year, and give positives why he may not repeat that type of poor season. Yet, you make the bolded comment.
Honestly, I'm not sure where you're getting the positive vibe from my comments. About the only reason I can guarantee he won't repeat his 2012 stats is reversion to the mean (no way he throws for a 2.8% TD rate again - that's almost Skelton-esque). But in the grand scheme of fantasy producitivity, I'm much more inclined to consider 2011 Stafford's overall outlier season than 2012. Stafford has shown us enough to get a pretty good handle on who he is - a gunslinger with a cannon arm who gets to throw to the best WR of his generation, which will always keep him fantasy relevant, but with too many limitations (questionable decision-making, poor pass blocking, average athleticism) to make him an odds-on top 5 QB.

 

Thursday

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace.

I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit.

640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD

You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
Even if you want to project those stats who in his range (QB7+) has a better chance at posting 5000/40?

Frankly, I'd rather have Stafford over even Ryan simply because of his upside to produce big in the playoffs.
I think the point that was being made is that he is projecting Stafford in a similar range as Big Ben and others. Maybe he does have a higher ceiling if he gets back on track, but you will end up paying four rounds earlier in the draft. Is the ceiling potential worth drafting four rounds earlier or are you missing out on other talent to get a QB who could put up similar statistics.

I like Stafford, although he screwed me last year and I do see him rebounding this year to the QB 6-9 range with the following projections:

Projection: 385 comp / 640 att, 4,530 yds, 29 TD, 15 Int; 25 rush, 80 yds, 1 TD

Personally, chances are I will let someone else draft him as we will probably go higher than what I'll be willing to pay. My guess is that I will wait till a few rounds after he goes to draft Romo who also has some upside with the way Dez came on toward the end of the season. Good upside at a cost several rounds after Stafford is drafted.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace. I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit. 640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
Even if you want to project those stats who in his range (QB7+) has a better chance at posting 5000/40? Frankly, I'd rather have Stafford over even Ryan simply because of his upside to produce big in the playoffs.
Saint's analysis was correct. I stated that you can draft essentially the same guy 4 rounds later. I wasn't talking about upside of guys in his range. And for the record, I don't think Stafford will ever hit 5000/40 again, so he's got the same or less probability of hitting those numbers as the people drafted around him. He had 102 passing attempts and 29 TDs in the red zone that year. He also had 663 overall passing attempts. The 2013 defense and running game should be much better than in 2011 and even if they aren't, I feel that all the cards fell his way in 2011. He didn't just have a poor attempt to TD ratio last year (36 per TD), but his YPA slipped from a moderate 7.6 down to a paltry 6.8 despite the presence of Calvin Johnson (YPA in his first two years was under 6). I just think this guy is criminally overrated. I mean, Shaun Hill posted 6.5 ypa and 1 TD per 26 attempts in 2010 when Stafford was injured.
 
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cstu

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace. I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit. 640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
Even if you want to project those stats who in his range (QB7+) has a better chance at posting 5000/40? Frankly, I'd rather have Stafford over even Ryan simply because of his upside to produce big in the playoffs.
Saint's analysis was correct. I stated that you can draft essentially the same guy 4 rounds later. I wasn't talking about upside of guys in his range. And for the record, I don't think Stafford will ever hit 5000/40 again, so he's got the same or less probability of hitting those numbers as the people drafted around him. He had 102 passing attempts and 29 TDs in the red zone that year. He also had 663 overall passing attempts. The 2013 defense and running game should be much better than in 2011 and even if they aren't, I feel that all the cards fell his way in 2011. He didn't just have a poor attempt to TD ratio last year (36 per TD), but his YPA slipped from a moderate 7.6 down to a paltry 6.8 despite the presence of Calvin Johnson (YPA in his first two years was under 6). I just think this guy is criminally overrated. I mean, Shaun Hill posted 6.5 ypa and 1 TD per 26 attempts in 2010 when Stafford was injured.
As far him being over-rated, he was also just 24 (a year older than Luck) last year. He had a bad year, that's a fact, but I think it's a mistake to completely write off what he did in 2011.

Even with a better running game and defense he's still going throw around 650 passes. He may not have a 6.2 TD% like he did in 2011 but even with an average 5% that gives him 32 TD's.

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
What happened? To Stafford? To the Lions defense? To the Lions? After seemingly announcing their presence on the list of big bad upcoming NFC teams in 2011, the entire team with the exception of Calvin Johnson was garbage. Pure unadulterated garbage. Was part of it the Lions ignoring the character red flags that came with some of their player acquisitions in recent years? Perhaps. But one of the primary issues with the Lions is that aside from Calvin Johnson, they have NO ONE else to catch the ball. NO ONE. Case in point, the Lions 2nd leading WR from a yardage perspective was Titus Young who had 383 yards in 2012 or 19.5% of the yards Megatron put up. I get that there were injuries and suspensions the Lions dealt with concerning Young, Burleson and Broyles. But none of those guys project to being able to help the Lions out that much in 2013. Broyles is the best shot and he’ll be coming off a 2nd ACL injury. How bad is the issue? Here are Stafford’s stats when throwing to someone else other than Johnson over the last two seasons.

2011: 505 PA 3357 Yards, 6.65 YPA
2012: 528 PA 3074 Yards, 5.82 YPA

While his YPA was not that great in 2011 during his breakout year, in 2012? Geez Louise. This is not meant to pin this failure entirely on Stafford. The Lions were dilapidated at WR last year…but even with the bunch listed above…we’re not talking a very good group. And the Lions did little to improve here.

The last two seasons, Stafford has averaged 695 pass attempts. That is higher than the single season pass attempt total of any other QB in NFL history. Stafford’s huge yardage totals have in large part been a by-product of the Lions inability to produce any type of sustainable ground attack. Bring on Reggie Bush. Bush is being touted as the main guy for Detroit, but I can’t imagine him being a bellcow. He’s struggled to stay healthy previously when placed in that position over 16 games and it’s in the Lions best interest to find an RBBC situation that keeps Mikel Leshoure involved, even if he did little to impress in 2012.

In 2011, the Lions ran 1043 plays from scrimmage. In 2012? 1160. So for a QB whose hit high yardage figures by virtue of the amount of passes he throws versus truly being efficient, Stafford represents a huge gamble. He was certainly more efficient in 2011 with his 7.6 YPA, but he had more options to throw to, or at least those options were in a better position to contribute then than they are now. His TE’s which he used well in the red zone in 2011 (11TD’s for Pettigrew/Scheffler) were not as involved in 2012 (4 TD’s).

I just don’t feel like I have a good feel on who Stafford is, or on a bigger scale…who the Lions are. It almost feels like they are at the end of a regime run but they don’t realize it yet (when talking about Mayhew/Schwartz). Reggie Bush to the rescue? Stafford and Johnson’s raw talent will drum up some numbers, but I almost think that if you have Stafford, you’re almost wanting them to lose.

Prediction: 379 Completions 627 Attempts 4415 Passing Yards, 26 TD’s, 15 INT’s, 29 rushes 89 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Borden said:
So where do you all see him finishing in fantasy point? QB10?
Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Ryan

Interchangeable

All of the guys after those first 5 have their own set of question marks. I can see him anywhere from 4th to 12th. The addition of Reggie Bush leads me closer to the former. The Lions should have much more manageable third downs this year leading to more first downs, more plays, and subsequently more opportunities for TD passes.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Borden said:
So where do you all see him finishing in fantasy point? QB10?
Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Ryan

Interchangeable

All of the guys after those first 5 have their own set of question marks. I can see him anywhere from 4th to 12th. The addition of Reggie Bush leads me closer to the former. The Lions should have much more manageable third downs this year leading to more first downs, more plays, and subsequently more opportunities for TD passes.
No Cam?

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Borden said:
So where do you all see him finishing in fantasy point? QB10?
Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Ryan

Interchangeable

All of the guys after those first 5 have their own set of question marks. I can see him anywhere from 4th to 12th. The addition of Reggie Bush leads me closer to the former. The Lions should have much more manageable third downs this year leading to more first downs, more plays, and subsequently more opportunities for TD passes.
No Cam?
I could make arguments for Cam, RG3, Stafford, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick, Romo, and even Freeman or Eli to get to that spot. QB seems incredibly deep. Much deeper than it has been in the past. All of those guys have warts, but if everything breaks in their favor any of them could challenge the top QBs.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Borden said:
So where do you all see him finishing in fantasy point? QB10?
Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Ryan

Interchangeable

All of the guys after those first 5 have their own set of question marks. I can see him anywhere from 4th to 12th. The addition of Reggie Bush leads me closer to the former. The Lions should have much more manageable third downs this year leading to more first downs, more plays, and subsequently more opportunities for TD passes.
No Cam?
I could make arguments for Cam, RG3, Stafford, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick, Romo, and even Freeman or Eli to get to that spot. QB seems incredibly deep. Much deeper than it has been in the past. All of those guys have warts, but if everything breaks in their favor any of them could challenge the top QBs.
Why is Matt Ryan in that top 5? IMO he's in the bunch listed and not certainly above it.

 

Grahamburn

Footballguy
Borden said:
So where do you all see him finishing in fantasy point? QB10?
Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Ryan

Interchangeable

All of the guys after those first 5 have their own set of question marks. I can see him anywhere from 4th to 12th. The addition of Reggie Bush leads me closer to the former. The Lions should have much more manageable third downs this year leading to more first downs, more plays, and subsequently more opportunities for TD passes.
No Cam?
I could make arguments for Cam, RG3, Stafford, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick, Romo, and even Freeman or Eli to get to that spot. QB seems incredibly deep. Much deeper than it has been in the past. All of those guys have warts, but if everything breaks in their favor any of them could challenge the top QBs.
Why is Matt Ryan in that top 5? IMO he's in the bunch listed and not certainly above it.
After going back and looking at my league history you're probably right.

The point is Stafford is just as likely (or unlikely) as any of these guys to challenge the elite QBs, and if he's discounted that much after a down year, other players are being hyped above him, etc, then he's a pretty good pick if your league lets him fall to QB10.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Borden said:
So where do you all see him finishing in fantasy point? QB10?
Rodgers

Brees

Manning

Brady

Ryan

Interchangeable

All of the guys after those first 5 have their own set of question marks. I can see him anywhere from 4th to 12th. The addition of Reggie Bush leads me closer to the former. The Lions should have much more manageable third downs this year leading to more first downs, more plays, and subsequently more opportunities for TD passes.
No Cam?
I could make arguments for Cam, RG3, Stafford, Luck, Wilson, Kaepernick, Romo, and even Freeman or Eli to get to that spot. QB seems incredibly deep. Much deeper than it has been in the past. All of those guys have warts, but if everything breaks in their favor any of them could challenge the top QBs.
Why is Matt Ryan in that top 5? IMO he's in the bunch listed and not certainly above it.
After going back and looking at my league history you're probably right.

The point is Stafford is just as likely (or unlikely) as any of these guys to challenge the elite QBs, and if he's discounted that much after a down year, other players are being hyped above him, etc, then he's a pretty good pick if your league lets him fall to QB10.
I agree and have picked up Stafford cheaply in a couple of leagues this offseason. He's not really efficient, but still young. People forget due to the injuries, he's had less time on the field as say a Matt Ryan at the same points in their careers. I also think Detroit badly needs to upgrade the OL/WR2/WR3/TE1(Pettigrew was bad last year).

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace. I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit. 640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
Even if you want to project those stats who in his range (QB7+) has a better chance at posting 5000/40? Frankly, I'd rather have Stafford over even Ryan simply because of his upside to produce big in the playoffs.
Saint's analysis was correct. I stated that you can draft essentially the same guy 4 rounds later. I wasn't talking about upside of guys in his range. And for the record, I don't think Stafford will ever hit 5000/40 again, so he's got the same or less probability of hitting those numbers as the people drafted around him. He had 102 passing attempts and 29 TDs in the red zone that year. He also had 663 overall passing attempts. The 2013 defense and running game should be much better than in 2011 and even if they aren't, I feel that all the cards fell his way in 2011. He didn't just have a poor attempt to TD ratio last year (36 per TD), but his YPA slipped from a moderate 7.6 down to a paltry 6.8 despite the presence of Calvin Johnson (YPA in his first two years was under 6). I just think this guy is criminally overrated. I mean, Shaun Hill posted 6.5 ypa and 1 TD per 26 attempts in 2010 when Stafford was injured.
As far him being over-rated, he was also just 24 (a year older than Luck) last year. He had a bad year, that's a fact, but I think it's a mistake to completely write off what he did in 2011.

Even with a better running game and defense he's still going throw around 650 passes. He may not have a 6.2 TD% like he did in 2011 but even with an average 5% that gives him 32 TD's.
I suspect experience matters more than age, but they both should be factored in. I'm not completely writing off what he did in 2011. It just simply wasn't that impressive. 7.6 ypa is good, not great. The only thing impressive was his TD total, which is a combination of a lot of red zone passes and Calvin Johnson. I don't think 650 passes is a given. It is possible, but the last two years he's been at 2.8% and 6.2% - I don't see why you are assuming 5% this year. 4% would be 26 TD which sounds a lot less sexy than 32 and puts him right back in Big Ben territory. Actually, in just 12.5 games last year Ben was at 26 TDs. Romo (QB11) threw for 4900/28. Freeman was at 4065/27. I see no reason to drop a QB8 pick on Stafford.

 

Tanner9919

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace.

I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit.

640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD

You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
quality stuff right here, thanks! :thumbsup:

I'm not sold on Reggie Bush - he's an overrated,oft-injured RB who'll leave Detroit with the same black hole at RB, once he gets hurt again..

Stafford is a turnover machine..on top of his INTs last season,he also had 6 fumbles,4 lost..oof..

I'd look elsewhere for a quality QB at a bargain price : hint: Carson Palmer.

or like you mentioned, Big Ben.

 

humpback

Footballguy
Tanner9919 said:
quality stuff right here, thanks! :thumbsup:

I'm not sold on Reggie Bush - he's an overrated,oft-injured RB who'll leave Detroit with the same black hole at RB, once he gets hurt again..

Stafford is a turnover machine..on top of his INTs last season,he also had 6 fumbles,4 lost..oof..

I'd look elsewhere for a quality QB at a bargain price : hint: Carson Palmer.

or like you mentioned, Big Ben.
Reggie Bush has missed one game in the last two seasons combined with over 250 touches per year in each. Even if he does get hurt, they'll be better for those games he does play in, then go back to the same as last year. He's certainly a net positive.

Oof on the fumbles? Stafford tied for 18th in fumbles by QB, the same as Ben (who played in 3 1/2 fewer games) and 1 less than Palmer (who played in 1 3/4 fewer games). The prior season Stafford had 5 fumbles (1 lost). Oof indeed.

 
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Grahamburn

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace.

I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit.

640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD

You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
quality stuff right here, thanks! :thumbsup:

I'm not sold on Reggie Bush - he's an overrated,oft-injured RB who'll leave Detroit with the same black hole at RB, once he gets hurt again..

Stafford is a turnover machine..on top of his INTs last season,he also had 6 fumbles,4 lost..oof..

I'd look elsewhere for a quality QB at a bargain price : hint: Carson Palmer.

or like you mentioned, Big Ben.
Yeah, these guys don't have anywhere near the upside of Stafford, and as humpback pointed out they're just as turnover prone.

 

swirvenirvin

Footballguy
I just dont think the Lions change that much, O-line still sucks the won't be able to run the ball, defense always sucks. I don't get how people are only projecting 640 attempts or less unless he gets hurt.

Last 3 yr pass attemtps by Lions

740

666

633

If you think no way they can pass as much as last yr that is fine, but to drop it 100 attempts total that seems a bit much.

 

cstu

Footballguy
Always thought Stafford was overrated. Being a #1 overall draft pick throwing to a #2 overall on a team that was a trendy dark horse pick just led to a lot of hype and it panned out for one season. Then, even a record number of attempted passes wasn't enough to reproduce those numbers a second season. Those 727 passes netted him a QB10 finish, yet he's still going QB8 this year. And as Andy mentioned, he lost both of his tackles. Matt Bitonti ranked them 31st this year. With San Diego signing Max Starks, maybe Detroit ranks dead last now. After two healthy seasons, maybe people have forgotten that Stafford seemed pretty injury prone his first two years. He's not a guy I'd want to gamble on given the state of his offensive line and his poor production. It is highly likely that he'll need to improve his production per play just to keep up with last year's QB10 finish as he's unlikely to reproduce last year's attempted pass pace. I like the addition of Reggie Bush here. He should help Stafford out - providing more yards per dump off pass than Mikel did (a paltry 6.3). Bell did extremely well with 9.3 ypr, so that could regress a bit. 640 att x 7.2 ypa = 4608 yds 25 TD 16 INT, 100 rushing yds 1 TD You can get almost the same stats from Big Ben four rounds later. I bet they are within 1 ppg of each other. Ben got injured last year, but through 8 games he had more points than Stafford (22.6 ppg vs. 21.4).
Even if you want to project those stats who in his range (QB7+) has a better chance at posting 5000/40? Frankly, I'd rather have Stafford over even Ryan simply because of his upside to produce big in the playoffs.
Saint's analysis was correct. I stated that you can draft essentially the same guy 4 rounds later. I wasn't talking about upside of guys in his range. And for the record, I don't think Stafford will ever hit 5000/40 again, so he's got the same or less probability of hitting those numbers as the people drafted around him. He had 102 passing attempts and 29 TDs in the red zone that year. He also had 663 overall passing attempts. The 2013 defense and running game should be much better than in 2011 and even if they aren't, I feel that all the cards fell his way in 2011. He didn't just have a poor attempt to TD ratio last year (36 per TD), but his YPA slipped from a moderate 7.6 down to a paltry 6.8 despite the presence of Calvin Johnson (YPA in his first two years was under 6). I just think this guy is criminally overrated. I mean, Shaun Hill posted 6.5 ypa and 1 TD per 26 attempts in 2010 when Stafford was injured.
As far him being over-rated, he was also just 24 (a year older than Luck) last year. He had a bad year, that's a fact, but I think it's a mistake to completely write off what he did in 2011.

Even with a better running game and defense he's still going throw around 650 passes. He may not have a 6.2 TD% like he did in 2011 but even with an average 5% that gives him 32 TD's.
I suspect experience matters more than age, but they both should be factored in. I'm not completely writing off what he did in 2011. It just simply wasn't that impressive. 7.6 ypa is good, not great. The only thing impressive was his TD total, which is a combination of a lot of red zone passes and Calvin Johnson. I don't think 650 passes is a given. It is possible, but the last two years he's been at 2.8% and 6.2% - I don't see why you are assuming 5% this year. 4% would be 26 TD which sounds a lot less sexy than 32 and puts him right back in Big Ben territory. Actually, in just 12.5 games last year Ben was at 26 TDs. Romo (QB11) threw for 4900/28. Freeman was at 4065/27. I see no reason to drop a QB8 pick on Stafford.
He's at 5.2% this year.

 

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