Player Spotlight: Maurice Jones-Drew (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2008 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. Last year, we published more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters. This year will be no different.

Each week we will post a list of players to be discussed. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discussion expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Page Link: Maurice Jones-Drew Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsNow let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[Jedimaster21]

This is one of the most underrated players in fantasy ball. If Fred stays healthy for another season, MJD should be a low end #1 or VERY good #2 back. If he doesn't and starts to wear down (he is 32 years old), then MJD will vault into the top 5. He is tough, yet elusive. He is an excellent receiver. He handles all the goal line work. I think he may be one season away from his peak due to the presence of a possible Hall of Famer in the same backfield, but he is a great player to have due to his talent and upside...not to mention his high floor.

215 carries for 1050 yards

50 catches for 500 yards

15 total TDs

I really do think that MJD will start to have an expanded role this year, and his upside just makes him a great pick.

 

[fantasyplayer]

It seems that MJD is one of the most polarizing players on this board, so I'm surprised to see only one response so far considering this was posted yesterday. My projections:

Carries - 210

Yards - 1000

Receptions - 55

Yards - 550

Total TDs - 14

 

[BigRed]

Well if you think of Drew as a top 5 contender, I guess FT in the HoF isn't such a reach -

Anyway, having owned Drew last year, I can tell you he was more headache than anything, getting just enough occasional flashes to cause you to take him off the bench, only to see him suck again (largely through no fault of his own though). This is not a good RB2 bet IMO and lmao @ RB1. Last year was supposed to be this big expanded role, all those TDs, blah blah...didn't happen. Coaching staff often seemed to forget he even existed. He got about 50 yds rushing or less in 11 of 16 games, and the big receiver threat got 3 catches or less in all but 3 games (including a meaningless blowout in the last week vs OAK). Brian Westbrook he aint.

Upside is there for sure, but they seem far more interested in riding FT while they can, so I'll pass and let someone else take the chance of this being a big increased role like many thought last year would be (this of course means it probably will happen so put him high on your list ).

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Well if you think of Drew as a top 5 contender, I guess FT in the HoF isn't such a reach -Anyway, having owned Drew last year, I can tell you he was more headache than anything, getting just enough occasional flashes to cause you to take him off the bench, only to see him suck again (largely through no fault of his own though). This is not a good RB2 bet IMO and lmao @ RB1. Last year was supposed to be this big expanded role, all those TDs, blah blah...didn't happen. Coaching staff often seemed to forget he even existed. He got about 50 yds rushing or less in 11 of 16 games, and the big receiver threat got 3 catches or less in all but 3 games (including a meaningless blowout in the last week vs OAK). Brian Westbrook he aint.Upside is there for sure, but they seem far more interested in riding FT while they can, so I'll pass and let someone else take the chance of this being a big increased role like many thought last year would be (this of course means it probably will happen so put him high on your list ).

Two points:TDs are very variable and it wasn't a surprise that he reverted to the mean, if you will. Just as likely this year that he gets the TD total up. I agree with the start/bench dilemma because he is a RBBC back, which is why I think he's a better pick in Best Ball or Survivor. Either way, I think he takes more carries from Fred this year, healthy or not, and comes close to 1000 yards rushing with 40-50 receptions and about 13 total TDs.

 

[H.K.]

Fred Taylor is 32. His short lived rebirth is over. No way does he stay healthy or get anywhere near the work he did in 2007.

MJD will be an absolute monster this season. Book it.

267 carries

1,281 yards

57 receptions

551 yards

17 TD's

 

[ConstruxBoy]

Fred Taylor is 32. His short lived rebirth is over. No way does he stay healthy or get anywhere near the work he did in 2007. MJD will be an absolute monster this season. Book it.267 carries1,281 yards57 receptions551 yards17 TD's

Ahh...the old H.K. kiss of death.

 

[Jedimaster21]

Well if you think of Drew as a top 5 contender, I guess FT in the HoF isn't such a reach -

Anyway, having owned Drew last year, I can tell you he was more headache than anything, getting just enough occasional flashes to cause you to take him off the bench, only to see him suck again (largely through no fault of his own though). This is not a good RB2 bet IMO and lmao @ RB1. Last year was supposed to be this big expanded role, all those TDs, blah blah...didn't happen. Coaching staff often seemed to forget he even existed. He got about 50 yds rushing or less in 11 of 16 games, and the big receiver threat got 3 catches or less in all but 3 games (including a meaningless blowout in the last week vs OAK). Brian Westbrook he aint.

Upside is there for sure, but they seem far more interested in riding FT while they can, so I'll pass and let someone else take the chance of this being a big increased role like many thought last year would be (this of course means it probably will happen so put him high on your list ).

Fred probably won't be a Hall of Famer because he has never been appreciated. However, look at the career stats. He was a very, very good player for a long time, and has been at his best the last few years. MJD has been limited because Fred is good, not because he can't handle a larger role.http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/T/TaylFr00.htm

The bottom line is that MJD is a very good back even if his role never increases.

 

[Iwannabeacowboybaby!]

Maurice Jones-Drew has an ADP of 13, he finished 8th and 13th in his first two seasons with Fred Taylor playing well and healthy. So to me, his ADP is basically the worst he's going to perform, which is an awesome problem to have. Heaven forbid anything was ever happen to Taylor, now you'd have a guy who'd be close to a top 5 back.

Maurice Jones- Drew is the TD guy and he's also a very good receiver. I like Maurice Jones-Drew has an excellent RB2, the kind of player I'm going to be targeting near the end of round 2 in 12 team redrafts.

950 yards rushing, 10 td's with 48 receptions for 550 yards and 2 td's

 

[joffer]

Fred Taylor is 32. His short lived rebirth is over. No way does he stay healthy or get anywhere near the work he did in 2007. MJD will be an absolute monster this season. Book it.267 carries1,281 yards57 receptions551 yards17 TD's

Ahh...the old H.K. kiss of death.

####! I actually liked MJD a little before this

 

[Buffaloes]

I think he will be a solid #2

I'll say about 200 carries

1100 yards

55 catches

500 yards

13 Tds

But if Taylor slows down or is hurt....look out.

I look at MJD as a low-risk, very high reward kinda guy

 

[BigRed]

Ahh...the old H.K. kiss of death.

I suggest tempering that with my thumbs-down. (eg I vowed AP was overrated last year - don't take this lightly)

to me, his ADP is basically the worst he's going to perform, which is an awesome problem to have.

Look at his game-by-game logs last year - if you consider that an "awesome problem to have" from your RB2, go for it - I'm expecting a bit more.

 

[Gravedigger]

I think MJD is a player that cannot be evaluated in a bottle. Being more volitile, and having RBBC issues (Taylor is not gone yet folks, and his carries aren't heading south yet either), MJD is going to depend on what you are doing with your draft.

If you are going RB/RB/RB, I say MJD in the second is a fantastic choice merely for upside and for the lower floor. Yes, he's volitile. But putting him on my team in the 2nd lets me take a risk on a hunch in the third.

If you don't take a RB in the first, I'd be worried about considering him in the second. Championship teams need consistency at the RB position and starting Moss/MJD will force the stars to align for you for success.

If you RB the first, but don't play to RB the 3rd, I say it depends on your 1st rounder. Wonderfully consistent players like LT, Addai, and even perhaps Barber make the upside of MJD hard to overlook. But if you have volitile 1st rounders like Gore, SJax, or perhaps even ADP, I think you steer clear, grab someone undervalued or more consistent, and pray he drops to the 3rd.

 

[GDogg]

This goes without saying, but it also depends on your scoring (no ####, right?). In leagues that are ppr and/or reward for return yards, Drew is a legit RB1. I am praying he falls to 2.12, but I don't think he will. He's a guy I'll be looking to add to my roster somehow.

 

[rzrback77]

Maurice Jones-Drew has been an explosive running back with very good hands. He has finished as the RB 8 as a rookie and then fell only to RB 13 in his second year. He has had 166 and 167 carries in his two seasons with 46 and 41 catches. He had 15 TDs as a rookie and followed that up with nine.

He is currently at an ADP of RB 13 and 21 overall. Everyone assumes that he has been held back by the sharing of carries with Fred Taylor and with Fred at 32, MJD is likely to get more work and therefore he's a lock to finish higher than RB 13 with those additional carries. But, can he hold up to the pounding if he gets those extra carries. Will he actually be better with them or worse?

He's solid as a bowling ball, but he is only 5'-8" and 205 and I think that he is at his best with fresh legs at the end of the game. In his rookie year, he only had over 15 carries twice. In his second year, he topped that mark four times, but did it in three of the last four games to give his backers hope that he can hold up.

Maurice Jones-Drew 180 carries 900 yards 5.0 ypc 45 catches 440 yds and 10 total TDs

 

[sjdogs]

I worry about week to week consistent production drafting this guy early. His numbers will be there at seasons end, my projections have:

1000 : 8TDS

400 : 2TDS

as a floor.

But can I rely on him as my RB2 whether i draft him in round 2 or 3. WOuld love to hear thoughts on that specific issue as I think he can have a huge impact

 

[Scooby1974]

This goes without saying, but it also depends on your scoring (no ####, right?). In leagues that are ppr and/or reward for return yards, Drew is a legit RB1. I am praying he falls to 2.12, but I don't think he will. He's a guy I'll be looking to add to my roster somehow.

We get pts for return yardage in our league so Drew's value shoots up pretty good as he was the 6th ranked RB last year. What kind of projections do you have for MJD this year? Do you think we'll see closer to a 50/50 split to help preserve Freddie?

 

[The Man with the Plan]

MJD seems to be the type of player who gets better as the season goes on. He's been horrible the first couple of games the past 2 seasons and then a beast afterwards. If he follows that trend this season don't be afraid to buy low on him.

 

[benbadman]

This goes without saying, but it also depends on your scoring (no ####, right?). In leagues that are ppr and/or reward for return yards, Drew is a legit RB1. I am praying he falls to 2.12, but I don't think he will. He's a guy I'll be looking to add to my roster somehow.

Definitely good to consider RETURN YARDAGE if your league awards for that. In my main league, where 40return yd = 1 pt, Jones-Drew has been RB7 and RB8 in his two years in the league..I like Jones-Drew for a few reasons:1. He's a consistent producer by season's end (RB7 and RB8 in my scoring format w/ return yards)2. He's on a great team (i.e. the Jags will get ahead in games and run MJD (& FT of course) to sustain their lead)3. In a RBBC *but* with a veteran with lots of miles (if Fred goes down MJD goes way way up)4. Young player, great keeper potential. (in a keeper/redraft combo league)5. Low Risk - No off the field legal issues or attitude problems.Jones-Drew is in that same tier as McGahee / Ryan Grant / Jamal Lewis / Marshawn Lynch. Of the 5 RBs in this RB2/RB1-capable grouping, Jones-Drew isn't a feature back but he does play for a good team and has no attitude/legal risks. I would actually take McGahee over Jones-Drew, but to me Ryan Grant is less proven (possibly another half season wonder at RB); Jamal Lewis faces a brutal schedule but has a GREAT OL so he's a tough call; Lynch plays on a below average offense but is a great talent.Some might even lump Larry Johnson into a similar tier as these players, but I think LJ is a bit higher rated than these guys, and if you're drafting LJ you get one of these guys anyways for your RB-RB 1-2 punch.850 rushing yards450 receiving yards750 return yards13 combined TDs

 

[David Yudkin]

I guess it's time for my speech on elite backs with limited touches are teases again.

MJD is not even the starter for the Jag, yet some folks are pimping him as a Top 5 back. Taylor has actually been more productive the past two years than any other point in his career. I know people would like him to fail, get hurt, or retire, but for now we have to assume he will play a significant role in the offense. He's not hurt, he shows no signs of slowing down, and we don't hear the team suggesting that they are sendin Taylor out to pasture.

More importantly, we do not know if MJD would get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

There's nothing wrong a RB getting the ball 200 times for 1200-1300 yards and around 10 TDs. In fact, this might be the year where I would look at drafting him after the crazy projections many had for him last year. But buyer beware on guys with lower touches and higher TD totals, as predicting TDs is a tough business.

 

[jurb26]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

 

[jurb26]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

 

[mjohnell]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD would get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Fred seems to think so..

Do you expect to continue to share carries with Jones-Drew?“It works. He’s a blessing in disguise. The pounding? I don’t have to deal with the wear and tear. With Mo, I have all the faith in the world the offense won’t miss a beat and he’ll get the job done,” Taylor said.• Will Jones-Drew remain content to share carries?“I know right now he is, but you’re going to come to a point that he’s going to want his due. He’s going to come to contract time. In my eyes, I want to be the man. He’s going to feel like it’s time to take the training wheels off. I love Mo. Honestly, I do. We talk all the time,” Taylor said.• What if Jones-Drew assumes the dominant role?“I can handle that. I did it in college. I almost had to do it here with (James Stewart). I can handle it. I’m handling it now. I have to be able to keep my head high,” Taylor said.

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD would get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Fred seems to think so..

Do you expect to continue to share carries with Jones-Drew?“It works. He’s a blessing in disguise. The pounding? I don’t have to deal with the wear and tear. With Mo, I have all the faith in the world the offense won’t miss a beat and he’ll get the job done,” Taylor said.• Will Jones-Drew remain content to share carries?“I know right now he is, but you’re going to come to a point that he’s going to want his due. He’s going to come to contract time. In my eyes, I want to be the man. He’s going to feel like it’s time to take the training wheels off. I love Mo. Honestly, I do. We talk all the time,” Taylor said.• What if Jones-Drew assumes the dominant role?“I can handle that. I did it in college. I almost had to do it here with (James Stewart). I can handle it. I’m handling it now. I have to be able to keep my head high,” Taylor said.

Of course he's going to saw that MJD can handle the load and be just as productive, but most of the time once guys start getting heaping amounts of touches they normally do not carry over their scoring rate or ypc if they were exceedingly high to begin with.

 

[jurb26]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

Barlow got 40 more touches while missing 2 games more.

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

Barlow got 40 more touches while missing 2 games more.

Barlow's touches went up 1.8 per game. The point was he didn't get 15 more touches a game.

 

[jurb26]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

Barlow got 40 more touches while missing 2 games more.

Barlow's touches went up 1.8 per game. The point was he didn't get 15 more touches a game.

His touches went up from 236 in 16 games to 279 in 14 games. By my calculations that more than 5+ per game.

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

Barlow got 40 more touches while missing 2 games more.

Barlow's touches went up 1.8 per game. The point was he didn't get 15 more touches a game.

His touches went up from 236 in 16 games to 279 in 14 games. By my calculations that more than 5+ per game.

236 touches in 16 games vs 279 in 15 games.

 

[baconisgood]

I guess it's time for my speech on elite backs with limited touches are teases again.MJD is not even the starter for the Jag, yet some folks are pimping him as a Top 5 back. Taylor has actually been more productive the past two years than any other point in his career. I know people would like him to fail, get hurt, or retire, but for now we have to assume he will play a significant role in the offense. He's not hurt, he shows no signs of slowing down, and we don't hear the team suggesting that they are sendin Taylor out to pasture.There's nothing wrong a RB getting the ball 200 times for 1200-1300 yards and around 10 TDs. In fact, this might be the year where I would look at drafting him after the crazy projections many had for him last year. But buyer beware on guys with lower touches and higher TD totals, as predicting TDs is a tough business.

I agree with this stuff. Taylor has had a very light work load for his career- 1 big year of 345 carries, and the last 4 years have been 260, 194, 231, 223- he looks to be a 'young' 32 yr old.

More importantly, we do not know if MJD would get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

This I don't agree with. The Maroney question was skewed horribly last year because of the sigings of Welker, Sallworth and some other guy named Moss. The Pats changed offensive philosophy + Maroney had injury problems. The Jags picked up Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter- hardly the same caliber. If Taylor did go down one has to expect MJD gets a significant boost to his carries.

 

[jurb26]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

Barlow got 40 more touches while missing 2 games more.

Barlow's touches went up 1.8 per game. The point was he didn't get 15 more touches a game.

His touches went up from 236 in 16 games to 279 in 14 games. By my calculations that more than 5+ per game.

236 touches in 16 games vs 279 in 15 games.

Barlow only played in half of 2 games that year......

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD would get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

This I don't agree with. The Maroney question was skewed horribly last year because of the sigings of Welker, Sallworth and some other guy named Moss. The Pats changed offensive philosophy + Maroney had injury problems. The Jags picked up Troy Williamson and Jerry Porter- hardly the same caliber. If Taylor did go down one has to expect MJD gets a significant boost to his carries.

I think WHEN Taylor got hurt and for how long would change this equation a lot. If Taylor went out early in a game or for a game or two, I would guess they would let MJD suck it up. If Taylor got hurt long term in training camp, I would think they would just sign another RB.If Taylor got hurt for an extended stretch in the middle of the season, I would guess they would give MJD some additional work but would split the remaing 70% of Taylor's work among the other backs on the roster. They might even still consider signing or acquiring someone else.If Taylor got hurt and IRed near the end of the season and the Jags were looking like a lock for the playoffs, they may actually CUT MJD's work to save him for the playoffs.So I guess it would depend on what happened and when and the situation looked overall.

 

[David Yudkin]

More importantly, we do not know if MJD wuold get the touches that Taylor would. Fantasy footballers assume that to be the case, when we have no way of knowing if his role would stay the same, increase slightly, or go through the roof. Ask Maroney owners how that worked out when they expected him to get Corey Dillion's touches and TDs last year. We also don't know if MJD saw more work that his production levels would stay the same.

Thats a bad example, Maroney wasn't healthy.

Healthy or not, Maroney was not going to get 1,900 rushing yards and 20 TD.Maybe you like Barlow better.

Maybe, maybe not. Most people created those assumptions prior to Moss coming aboard. After Moss' arrival I think most realized the redzone looks would be greatly reduced for everyone else on the team. Starting at RB.Regarding Barlow... he got the touches he just sucked with them and SF went drastically down hill in 2004. I don't think the same would be the case for Jack or Drew. I guess anything is possible though.

Barlow only got 40 more touches. Dunn got a bigger workload without Duckett and still not many goal line carries. tatum Bell did not get much of what Mike Anderson got the year before.Off the top of my head, the only one that really did take a much bigger role and run with it was Tiki barber, but I'd have to look into it more deeply before concluding anything.

Barlow got 40 more touches while missing 2 games more.

Barlow's touches went up 1.8 per game. The point was he didn't get 15 more touches a game.

His touches went up from 236 in 16 games to 279 in 14 games. By my calculations that more than 5+ per game.

236 touches in 16 games vs 279 in 15 games.

Barlow only played in half of 2 games that year......

IMO, either guys played or they didn't . . . trying to look to give credit for missed quarters or halves is a bit much in my book. How do we know if he was benched because he fumbled or was ineffective in those games?Using your technique, does Barlow get any credit back for only getting single digit carries the year before in 6 games. Can't we count that as only 3 games played instead of 6? How do we know if he only played a quarter of a half in those games?

 

[munchkin]

If Fred Taylor gets hurt how does Greg Jones fit into the equation? Cecil and Sigmund have been pimping him for a couple of years now and he seems to be lost in the equation. Would he get 1/2 of Fed's carries and MJD the other 1/2? Would it affect MJD's goal line carries? I think it's food for thought.

I am glad to have MJD on my Dynasty roster but have not used him much. He seems to have everything you could want in a RB. He is an unselfish team player with solid all around skills. The Jags are lucky to have Fred and MJD in their backfield and you can't blame them for using both backs like they do. Like many MJD owners I am curious to see how he does with a greater workload.

Her's my WAG: Rushing 205/950/8 Receiving 45/450/4

 

[PlasmaDogPlasma]

If Fred misses extended time, I think they spread his carries between MJD, G.Jones, and whoever comes out of camp as the 3rd halfback (Chauncey Washington or DD Terry). I very seriously doubt MJD ever ends up with his touches + 90% of Fred's touches for an extended stretch.

BTW, MJD has carried the ball more than 20 times twice as a Jaguar and averaged under 4.0 both times.

 

[Interseptopus]

MJD is a career RBBC back. We'll probably see a similar case to Maroney last year if Taylor goes down with an injury.

 

[GDogg]

MJD is a career RBBC back. We'll probably see a similar case to Maroney last year if Taylor goes down with an injury.

Was Laurence Maroney NE's GL back?

 

[munchkin]

MJD is a career RBBC back. We'll probably see a similar case to Maroney last year if Taylor goes down with an injury.

Was Laurence Maroney NE's GL back?

Not early in the season. They did however use him in that role towards the end of the season and he was pretty effective.

 

[Scooby1974]

MJD is a career RBBC back. We'll probably see a similar case to Maroney last year if Taylor goes down with an injury.

Was Laurence Maroney NE's GL back?

Not early in the season. They did however use him in that role towards the end of the season and he was pretty effective.

NE used Sammy Morris as a GL back until he got hurt for the season. It is hard to answer this question relative to Sammy being out for the season with that clavicle injury.

 

[munchkin]

MJD is a career RBBC back. We'll probably see a similar case to Maroney last year if Taylor goes down with an injury.

Was Laurence Maroney NE's GL back?

Not early in the season. They did however use him in that role towards the end of the season and he was pretty effective.

NE used Sammy Morris as a GL back until he got hurt for the season. It is hard to answer this question relative to Sammy being out for the season with that clavicle injury.

Maroney was dancing with the stars early in the season. He was tentative unless he had a clearly defined hole to run through. Once he became less tentative, trusted his line and used leg drive he became a much more effective back across the board. If he shows the same determination and instincts this year he will not be taken out on the goal line. This is not to say Morris won't be used at all on the goal line but he won't become the designated TD machine.

 

[Jon_Moore]

He's probably the best player on his team, they'll look to get him the ball plenty. He's one of the most explosive players in the league, and has good strength too, showing the ability to find the endzone with frequency. If something should happen to Fred Taylor, Jones-Drew could be top 5, though I'm not sold something will happen to him, he is 32. He has excellent receiving skills and will be a good #1 back in ppr leagues, a great #2 in non-ppr, and even a borderline RB1. The Jaguars don't have anything great as far as receivers go, so he'll get more than his fair share of touches.

192 Rushes

960 Yards

8 TDs

54 Receptions

529 Yards

5 TDs

 

[Gopher State]

Concerns are:

Taylor still is the starter

Reports are Taylor is in great condition starting the season

MJD's value is all tied to Taylor, getting hurt, losing a step, etc,.

MJD is high risk, high reward

MJD has all the hype that Travis Henry had in 07

The Jag's have had great success with RBBC Taylor/MJD, why change it in 08?

I like MJD for about 950/6 td rush, 220/1 rec, based on Taylor being in the mix, which you have to factor in at this point

 

[BigRed]

MJD has all the hype that Travis Henry had in 07

Hardly. He had that or close to it last year, actually, but after digressing last year and little seming to change, he can be had a little cheaper this year (at least in PPRs, where he was expected to really stand out).

 

[benbadman]

MJD has all the hype that Travis Henry had in 07

Hardly. He had that or close to it last year, actually, but after digressing last year and little seming to change, he can be had a little cheaper this year (at least in PPRs, where he was expected to really stand out).

All I know is that in my main $$ league with Return Yards, Jones-Drew gets an extra 20 points from the yardage alone to his season totals. That brings his projections up to RB7 in the Draft Dominator, just even with Frank Gore (211.9 to 211.3). I'd rather have a fantasy stud from a winning team than a guy like Gore / LJ / Lynch from mediocre clubs with subpar OLs. Now in leagues without return yards, Jones-Drew is a notch below those guys, but my point is still valid--besides everyone should give pts for return yards, its the shiznit.The Indy@Jax game on Thursday nite in week 16 will be huge and probably have the division title on the line. It's always good to know your studs will get meaningful games in week 15-17.

 

[Jon_Moore]

MJD has all the hype that Travis Henry had in 07

Hardly. He had that or close to it last year, actually, but after digressing last year and little seming to change, he can be had a little cheaper this year (at least in PPRs, where he was expected to really stand out).

All I know is that in my main $$ league with Return Yards, Jones-Drew gets an extra 20 points from the yardage alone to his season totals. That brings his projections up to RB7 in the Draft Dominator, just even with Frank Gore (211.9 to 211.3). I'd rather have a fantasy stud from a winning team than a guy like Gore / LJ / Lynch from mediocre clubs with subpar OLs. Now in leagues without return yards, Jones-Drew is a notch below those guys, but my point is still valid--besides everyone should give pts for return yards, its the shiznit.

The Indy@Jax game on Thursday nite in week 16 will be huge and probably have the division title on the line. It's always good to know your studs will get meaningful games in week 15-17.

 

[David Yudkin]

I like MJD for about 950/6 td rush, 220/1 rec, based on Taylor being in the mix, which you have to factor in at this point

You have MJD for 1170/7 with Taylor being the lead dog so to speak. MJD has had 1377/15 and 1175/9 with Taylor around and prospering, so it's a pretty safe bet that both can coexist.

 

[cstruk]

I like MJD for about 950/6 td rush, 220/1 rec, based on Taylor being in the mix, which you have to factor in at this point

You have MJD for 1170/7 with Taylor being the lead dog so to speak. MJD has had 1377/15 and 1175/9 with Taylor around and prospering, so it's a pretty safe bet that both can coexist.

Which with that production out of the RBs just makes it silly that anyone would think that the Jax WRs are going to be worth much of anything except for the occasional fluke week.

 

[David Yudkin]

I like MJD for about 950/6 td rush, 220/1 rec, based on Taylor being in the mix, which you have to factor in at this point

You have MJD for 1170/7 with Taylor being the lead dog so to speak. MJD has had 1377/15 and 1175/9 with Taylor around and prospering, so it's a pretty safe bet that both can coexist.

Which with that production out of the RBs just makes it silly that anyone would think that the Jax WRs are going to be worth much of anything except for the occasional fluke week.

Even with all that RB production, JAX still had 3500/28 passing the football (with roughly 155-2200-22 going to the WR).IMO, if the team could actually settle on a WR1 and WR2, they both would be fantasy worthy. The problem is, they have so many interchangable parts that none of them are great options.

 

[pollardsvision]

MJD's numbers will be there, but the consistency won't. you have to get him as a RB2 and that inconsistency hurts.

the overall numbers are nice though, being a rare "backup" that gets all the fantasy meaningful touches (goal-line, receiving targets). being a 3rd down back and a goal-line back all rolled into one is great.

i've got him down for more of the same with a slight uptick in carries: 180/900/10, 43/410/1.

if taylor goes down, i don't see MJD getting a bellcow's load. he'd be more consistent, but i don't think he'd get 250 carries even in a completely fred taylor free season.