Player Spotlight: Michael Vick (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Michael Vick, QB, Atlanta Falcons

Player Page Link: Michael Vick Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[ILUVBEER99]

Most underrated fantasy QB of 2006.

250/440 for 2900 passing yards and 21 passing TD's

120 rushes for 800 yards and 8 TD's

Being drafted as the 10th or so QB off the board and should easily surpass that ranking.

 

[perry147]

2600 Passing

16 PTD

9 INT

800 Rush

8 RTD

This is assuming he stays healthy. I think Vick will run the ball more this season now that he has fully healed from the broken leg.

 

[Perry Ice]

In leagues that only offer 4 points for passing touchdowns, you can't discount the value of Vick's rushing numbers.

800 yards, and 6 rushing touchdonws is the equivilant of 1600 passing yards, and 12 passing touchdowns.

No other QB can present that kind of value, if he can just put up marginal numbers of:

2,800 yards, 18 tds, 12 ints and 800 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns

That gives him 328 fantasy points....which would make him a top 5 QB without breaking a sweat....

 

[diesel7982]

In leagues that only offer 4 points for passing touchdowns, you can't discount the value of Vick's rushing numbers.

800 yards, and 6 rushing touchdonws is the equivilant of 1600 passing yards, and 12 passing touchdowns.

No other QB can present that kind of value, if he can just put up marginal numbers of:

2,800 yards, 18 tds, 12 ints and 800 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns

That gives him 328 fantasy points....which would make him a top 5 QB without breaking a sweat....

If passing TDs are worth 4 points, how does 8 rushing Tds translate into 16 passing TDs?

 

[Perry Ice]

In leagues that only offer 4 points for passing touchdowns, you can't discount the value of Vick's rushing numbers.

800 yards, and 6 rushing touchdonws is the equivilant of 1600 passing yards, and 12 passing touchdowns.

No other QB can present that kind of value, if he can just put up marginal numbers of:

2,800 yards, 18 tds, 12 ints and 800 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns

That gives him 328 fantasy points....which would make him a top 5 QB without breaking a sweat....

If passing TDs are worth 4 points, how does 8 rushing Tds translate into 16 passing TDs?

Me fail math thats impossible

 

[Blackjacks]

Vick finished #11 in my scoring last year with missing a game due to injury. If you give him the 16 points he avg. for the year for that one game and he ended up #4 tied with Eli. Vick is just frustrating as your starter, he'll be huge or he'll be horrible..there is no imbetween with this guy. Saying that even though he is inconsistent I have to put him in the top ten and maybe even top 5 based on a injury free season.

I won't be picking him but you should ecpect good finishing #'s.

2800 yards passing

17 td's

85 rushes

550 yards

7 td's

 

[Da Guru]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

 

[Blackjacks]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

???????He finished 11 last year. I don't think top 20 is a stretch at all.

 

[Bears_Man2]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

LOL too funny

 

[joffer]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

only from a true Guru can such a bold prediction emanate.I still hate Vick in the west coast offense, square peg in a round hole. He'll have some great weeks and some lemons, and he'll probably miss a game or two. Based on the mocks I've done, I think he's a little underrated right now

250/420/2825/18/11 passing

90/648/4 rushing

 

[SSOG]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

only from a true Guru can such a bold prediction emanate.I still hate Vick in the west coast offense, square peg in a round hole. He'll have some great weeks and some lemons, and he'll probably miss a game or two. Based on the mocks I've done, I think he's a little underrated right now

250/420/2825/18/11 passing

90/648/4 rushing

Vick is no longer in the WCO. The coaches finally listened to the voice of reason and are changing the offense up to better suit Vick's strengths.As for my projections... let's start off by saying that most of what you have heard about Michael Vick as a fantasy QB is 100% false.

Despite all of the bad press that Vick gets, he's never played most of a season and *NOT* finished as a starter-quality QB. He has a 3rd place, 10th place, and 12th place finish on his resume- despite playing only 15 games in each of those seasons. He is an injury risk, for sure... but how anyone could have any qualms about starting him when he's healthy is beyond me.

People call him a "boom or bust" kind of guy, but I strongly disagree with that assessment. He scored under 10 points just three times last season. He scored over 19 points eight times. Let's compare this "boom or bust" QB to the rock solid Trent Green, shall we? Trent Green scored under 10 points... three times... and over 19 points... seven times. Okay, bad example. How about Hasselbeck? He's a rock. Hasselbeck had... two games under 10, and 6 games over 19. Okay, okay, enough fun and games and fluky comparisons. Let's compare Vick to Peyton Manning, the poster child for QB consistancy. Peyton scored under 10 points... three times. He scored over 19 points... nine times.

Clearly, Michael Vick is no more "boom or bust" than ANY OTHER QB IN THE NFL, including such no-brainer starters as Peyton Manning, Trent Green, and Matt Hasselbeck. He is also very clearly a starter-caliber QB, never once starting more than 5 games and ranking outside of the top 12. Most importantly, he's playing in an offense suited to his skillset for the first time since 2002. He finished as the #3 fantasy QB in the NFL that season, in just his second year.

230/420 for 3000 with 16 TDs and 10 INTs passing, combined with 110/800/8 rushing. An extremely high floor, an extremely high ceiling, combined with a surprisingly low cost and no real negatives outside of injury risk, makes for the perfect recipe for a fantasy steal.

 

[diesel7982]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

only from a true Guru can such a bold prediction emanate.I still hate Vick in the west coast offense, square peg in a round hole. He'll have some great weeks and some lemons, and he'll probably miss a game or two. Based on the mocks I've done, I think he's a little underrated right now

250/420/2825/18/11 passing

90/648/4 rushing

Vick is no longer in the WCO. The coaches finally listened to the voice of reason and are changing the offense up to better suit Vick's strengths.As for my projections... let's start off by saying that most of what you have heard about Michael Vick as a fantasy QB is 100% false.

Despite all of the bad press that Vick gets, he's never played most of a season and *NOT* finished as a starter-quality QB. He has a 3rd place, 10th place, and 12th place finish on his resume- despite playing only 15 games in each of those seasons. He is an injury risk, for sure... but how anyone could have any qualms about starting him when he's healthy is beyond me.

People call him a "boom or bust" kind of guy, but I strongly disagree with that assessment. He scored under 10 points just three times last season. He scored over 19 points eight times. Let's compare this "boom or bust" QB to the rock solid Trent Green, shall we? Trent Green scored under 10 points... three times... and over 19 points... seven times. Okay, bad example. How about Hasselbeck? He's a rock. Hasselbeck had... two games under 10, and 6 games over 19. Okay, okay, enough fun and games and fluky comparisons. Let's compare Vick to Peyton Manning, the poster child for QB consistancy. Peyton scored under 10 points... three times. He scored over 19 points... nine times.

Clearly, Michael Vick is no more "boom or bust" than ANY OTHER QB IN THE NFL, including such no-brainer starters as Peyton Manning, Trent Green, and Matt Hasselbeck. He is also very clearly a starter-caliber QB, never once starting more than 5 games and ranking outside of the top 12. Most importantly, he's playing in an offense suited to his skillset for the first time since 2002. He finished as the #3 fantasy QB in the NFL that season, in just his second year.

230/420 for 3000 with 16 TDs and 10 INTs passing, combined with 110/800/8 rushing. An extremely high floor, an extremely high ceiling, combined with a surprisingly low cost and no real negatives outside of injury risk, makes for the perfect recipe for a fantasy steal.

Curious as to why you chose 10 and 19.

 

[SSOG]

I can see Vick having a better season than last year and possibly cracking the top 20 among FF QBs.

only from a true Guru can such a bold prediction emanate.I still hate Vick in the west coast offense, square peg in a round hole. He'll have some great weeks and some lemons, and he'll probably miss a game or two. Based on the mocks I've done, I think he's a little underrated right now

250/420/2825/18/11 passing

90/648/4 rushing

Vick is no longer in the WCO. The coaches finally listened to the voice of reason and are changing the offense up to better suit Vick's strengths.As for my projections... let's start off by saying that most of what you have heard about Michael Vick as a fantasy QB is 100% false.

Despite all of the bad press that Vick gets, he's never played most of a season and *NOT* finished as a starter-quality QB. He has a 3rd place, 10th place, and 12th place finish on his resume- despite playing only 15 games in each of those seasons. He is an injury risk, for sure... but how anyone could have any qualms about starting him when he's healthy is beyond me.

People call him a "boom or bust" kind of guy, but I strongly disagree with that assessment. He scored under 10 points just three times last season. He scored over 19 points eight times. Let's compare this "boom or bust" QB to the rock solid Trent Green, shall we? Trent Green scored under 10 points... three times... and over 19 points... seven times. Okay, bad example. How about Hasselbeck? He's a rock. Hasselbeck had... two games under 10, and 6 games over 19. Okay, okay, enough fun and games and fluky comparisons. Let's compare Vick to Peyton Manning, the poster child for QB consistancy. Peyton scored under 10 points... three times. He scored over 19 points... nine times.

Clearly, Michael Vick is no more "boom or bust" than ANY OTHER QB IN THE NFL, including such no-brainer starters as Peyton Manning, Trent Green, and Matt Hasselbeck. He is also very clearly a starter-caliber QB, never once starting more than 5 games and ranking outside of the top 12. Most importantly, he's playing in an offense suited to his skillset for the first time since 2002. He finished as the #3 fantasy QB in the NFL that season, in just his second year.

230/420 for 3000 with 16 TDs and 10 INTs passing, combined with 110/800/8 rushing. An extremely high floor, an extremely high ceiling, combined with a surprisingly low cost and no real negatives outside of injury risk, makes for the perfect recipe for a fantasy steal.

Curious as to why you chose 10 and 19.

To be honest... I was going to do 10 and 20, but that skewed the Trent Green numbers, since he twice finished with 19.9 points. If you go 10 and 20, then Vick had 6 twenty point games and Green only had four. People might argue that that was evidence that Green was less boom-or-bust than Vick, despite the fact that he was only a tenth of a point away from twenty in two other games. So I lowered the requirement to 19 just to save myself from having to deal with arguements about semantics.The point stands. Choose any basic thresheld you want, and Vick performed pretty much exactly as consistantly as every other starter-caliber QB in the league.

 

[Big Score]

No doubt Vick has yet to develop appreciably as a passer.

The excuses of little talent / continuity at the WR position, or it takes 3+ years for a QB to absorb the WCO, becomes less & less valid as the years go by.

Cannon arm where he can seemingly effortlessly flick the ball with his wrist, for a beautiful 40 to 50 yard pass to be followed by a horribly inaccurate pass to Dunn, only 15' away from him.

What has so far allowed a seemingly strong armed QB with little touch, sporadic accuracy & suspect ability to read D's, to be successful, is excellent coordination coupled with an incredible amount of speed.

Nothing earth shattering here, right?

However, for the first time in this young QB's career there is a known pecking order at the WR position. The reports coming out of Flowery Branch are of Vick diligently attending all football related activities, along with his two primary WR's in Jenkins & White. All three have been putting in the extra hours, even at the voluntary OTA's, while we see other vets across the NFL put in haphazard appearances. Of course, this young trio needs to be putting in the extra work, it is just gratifying to see that they understand this and are dedicating themselves to building the knowledge and rapport.

Even if we continue seeing the scatter-shot Vick that we are all so familiar with, Alge Crumpler is no doubt ready and willing to continue being be Vick's Mr. Reliable.

The beauty of Vick, is that even when all of his receiving options are initially covered, he can do what few other QB's in the league are able to. He can buy more time with his scrambling ability, than any other QB playing today. This allows his guys a couple more seconds to shake their defender, than most WR's are used to.

Then, when all else fails, Vick can see a sliver of daylight, turn on his jets and go. The Coaches have publicly given their blessing for this, maintaining that the shackles are off.

Overrated, Overhyped...I don't care what anyone says, when Vick takes off, it makes for some of the most exciting and entertaining plays to behold.

It certainly doesn't hurt Vick to have a one two punch in the backfield, the likes of Dunn & Duckett. You know what you have in Dunn. A slippery whirling dervish with surprising leg strength for a man his size. Duckett, despite having an inexplicable off year last season, is the big thumper. The Falcons made no secret that he is available for trade and Duckett has responded to the challenge by rededicating himself to his craft.

I also see Atlanta's D as having made strides with their FA acquisitions, drafting Jimmy Williams to play CB across from DeAngelo Hall, the return to health of key veterans in Hartwell & Jack of all Trades, Mathis.

The improvement to the Falcons D will make life easier on the Offense in general & Vick in particular.

Putting it all together, I see Vick slightly improving upon his career completion percentage, reaching a new completion ratio of approx 58.5%.

I see Mora Jr still trending the Falcons towards being one of the NFL's lower passing teams, but with a slight uptick in passing attempts due to their D doing a better job at keeping the opponent off the field and the Offense operating more efficiently. I would not be surprised to see Atlanta hovering right around 490 to 500 pass attempts this season.

So, if Vick takes all the snaps from Center this year, the projected 490 passing attempts at a 58.5% completion rate, would give him 286 completions.

I don't see Vick's ypa at much more than his career avg of 6.7, considering the majority of the type passing plays that will be called.

Again, if Vick is able to be the QB throwing the projected 490 attempts for the Falcons, he will throw for 3,238 yards. Along with the 3,238 yards 19 TD's & 13 ints.

No doubt Vick will have at least 100+ rushing attempts. The knee injury hampering him last year is a thing of the past, so I see no reason for 850 yards as being an unreasonable projection to go along with another 8 TD's rushing.

Playing all 16 games;

3,328 yards passing, 19 passing TD's, 13 interceptions.

850 yards rushing, 8 rushing TD's, 10 fumbles - 5 lost.

 

[the branded hand]

I also see Atlanta's D as having made strides with their FA acquisitions, drafting Jimmy Williams to play CB across from DeAngelo Hall, the return to health of key veterans in Hartwell & Jack of all Trades, Mathis.

The improvement to the Falcons D will make life easier on the Offense in general & Vick in particular.

I see Mora Jr still trending the Falcons towards being one of the NFL's lower passing teams, but with a slight uptick in passing attempts due to their D doing a better job at keeping the opponent off the field and the Offense operating more efficiently. I would not be surprised to see Atlanta hovering right around 490 to 500 pass attempts this season.

No doubt Vick will have at least 100+ rushing attempts. The knee injury hampering him last year is a thing of the past, so I see no reason for 850 yards as being an unreasonable projection to go along with another 8 TD's rushing.

Playing all 16 games;

3,328 yards passing, 19 passing TD's, 13 interceptions.

850 yards rushing, 8 rushing TD's, 10 fumbles - 5 lost.

I a word, BINGO!

I think their D will give Vick more opportunities on offense and IF their offensive pieces can be FULLY utilized, it will be interesting to see how the field gets stretched. IMO, Vick, Crumpler and/or Dunn could have career years if at least one of their WR's becomes a legitimate downfield threat.

Projection:

2850 yds - 20 TD - 11 INT

750/950 yds - 6/8 TD

 

[joffer]

Vick is no longer in the WCO. The coaches finally listened to the voice of reason and are changing the offense up to better suit Vick's strengths.

I was wondering about that. I thought I'd heard something along those lines but couldn't find anything to confirm. Thanks for the info. Do you know of any links worth reading on that?they don't mention the WCO in this link, just that the system will be the same.

this is about as close as i could find on the blogger

7. Bill Musgrave is the new Falcons quarterback coach.

Musgrave has spent years engulfed in the West Coast offense, as a player with the 49ers and as a longtime NFL and college coach. But he won't corral Vick, who is at his best when he gets to free style to a specific system. Musgrave won't corral him as long as it equals wins.

Musgrave said this week, "You are right. When Michael is creative, he gives opposing defenses fits. We will never take that away from him. Never. Whatever he needs to do to win, we will encourage."

We asked Musgrave if Vick needed to improve his completion percentage. The coach replied, "That was never (brought) up in one meeting. It's not a stat I am concerned with at all. It is just about winning games."

 

[Longrifle]

Before I begin with my projections I just want to say that I am not a Vick fan and this could influence the projections a bit, but I don’t thinks so. Vick is an athletic beast. If football was a individual sport I think Vick would be considered one of the greatest ever. But football is a team sport as we all know. So lets look at what he has to work with. The only viable option at receiver is TE Crumpler, don’t get me wrong he is a great TE but really he is the only major receiving threat. The other WR on the team are either too young or a joke. ATL coaches know this, that is one of the reason ATL has such a dominate rushing game. This team is built on running the ball… not passing it. So for Vick he will get the opportunity to run and should put up some real nice numbers running. As for passing, well, I think he will pass when the team needs to but otherwise he is handing the ball to D and D. Then take into account the Defenses in the NFC South and I really don’t see him doing any better than last year, but also no worse.

Passing Yards 2678

Passing TDs 15

Ints 11

Rushing Att 112

Rush Yards 728

Rush TDs 5

 

[David Yudkin]

Quite simply, where Michael Vick ranks is based almost entirely on how will will do PASSING the football.

Below average passing stats (or similar to his past few seasons) = Top 10-12

Average passing stats = Top 5

Slightly above average passing stats = Top 3

Good pasing stats = Top 1-2

The question clearly then becomes how well he will do in his passing categories. Vick has yet to throw for more than 16 TD and has not hit 3,000 passing yards.

He averaged 160 passing yards and a TD per game in 2005. Giving him a bump up to 180 yards passing and 1.2 TD per game, that would raise his totals to 2,880 passing yards and 19 TD provided he played all 16 games (which he's yet to do).

I think he may be able to do that this year but might miss an occasional play, series, or even a full half.

I'd go with 2,600 yards, 18 TD, and 14 INT passing coupled with 650 rushing yards and 4 rushing TD.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I waited awhile before posting on Vick. Don't post nearly as much as I used to (life has just gotten too busy...), but when it comes to Falcon players, I still think I can provide additional insight (although a lot good stuff has been said).

A couple of points I'd like to make:

1) Who is the best WR Vick has ever had to throw to? Brian Finneran? Peerless Price? Shawn Jefferson? Dez White? I don't want to give the impression that Vick's difficulties in the passing game have nothing to do with him. However, this group says alot about what Vick has had to work with.

2) This season represents the longest Vick has had to work in the same offense and with the same coaching staff in his career. The stuff you mention about the Falcons shifting away from the WCO is kind of off-base. Mora has always insisted that the Falcons don't run a WCO. So the offense that Vick is in (or will be in 2006) won't be demonstrably different than the ones he ran in 2004/2005. That said, it does appear the coaching staff is looking to utilize the shotgun more in non-obvious passing situations to try and better take advantage of Vick's running ability (Have been viewing film of WVU & Texas).

3) If I could equate any other professional athlete to Michael Vick - it would be Allen Iverson. He may not be nearly as volatile a personality, but from a freakish athletic talent standpoint while at the same time being viewed as a one man show...Iverson is a pretty decent comparison. I also think too that Iverson is known for a 'me against the world' type outlook, especially when public opinion of him starts to slant towards unfavorable. He then seems to rise to the challenge and raise his game another notch. I kind of see this same trait in Vick...he started to take that attitude. He didn't raise his game like Iverson has, but I think his renewed focus this off-season demonstrates that the lukewarm views of his ability and his ability to lead the Falcons has him salivating at the chance to redeem himself. Fact is, the amount of people who appear to view him favorably as a QB is half that compared to the amount of people that don't (which I think is ludicrous - the whole notion/suggestion of him needing to switch positions is laughable).

4) The one area of his game/persona that I did not like last year was what I perceived to be his exasperation level. I think when things are going bad - your QB needs to be the pillar of emotional stability and I think Vick's maturity (ort lack thereof) reared it's head a bit because I felt that instead of trying to change the mindset of a team clearly in trouble with negative momentum, I saw him more or less succumb to it...

Is that to say Vick doesn't possess leadership capabilities...? No, I've seen him demonstrate leadership on several occasions, but those were in game situations, not necessarily streak situations. With that said, if the Falcons start to slide again (and their early season schedule is difficult), you may want to steer clear of Vick.

5) I think the Falcons offense might be freed of the shackles of trying to find a role for TJ Duckett. Quite frankly, I think he'll be more of a Zack Crockett type (strictly goal line) this year than anything and you'll see Jerious Norwood become the primary back-up to Dunn. However, Norwood won't receive nearly the amount of work that Duckett did in the semi-platoon situation the Falcons have utilized with Dunn/Duckett since Vick has been the starter. Because of this, Vick will find the ball in his hands more as a ball carrier and passer.

And the simple equation is this - more attempts = more production

Overall: I think the Falcons are a much better team that 8-8, or at least have the potential to be much better than that. But alot rides on Vick's ability to make the next leap in his progression which seems to have stalled in neutral.

But the signs seem encouraging that the Falcons and Vick can start to move forward again and become a dangerous cvontender in the NFC again.

Prediction:

271 Completions

468 Attempts

57.9% Completion Rate

3201 Passing Yards

19 TD's

13 INT's

124 Rushes

806 Rushing Yards

6 TD's

4 Lost Fumbles

 

[ShotGunStyle]

2800/17/12

700/6

I don't think he'll ever be a good passer in the NFL, but he'll still do enough to remain a starting fantasy QB.

 

[diesel7982]

2800/17/12

700/6

I don't think he'll ever be a good passer in the NFL, but he'll still do enough to remain a starting fantasy QB.

Id call 4200/25 "starting"

 

[ShotGunStyle]

Starting is top 12-16, which I'm pretty sure he will be in 2006.

 

[citsalp]

I waited awhile before posting on Vick. Don't post nearly as much as I used to (life has just gotten too busy...), but when it comes to Falcon players, I still think I can provide additional insight (although a lot good stuff has been said).

A couple of points I'd like to make:

1) Who is the best WR Vick has ever had to throw to? Brian Finneran? Peerless Price? Shawn Jefferson? Dez White? I don't want to give the impression that Vick's difficulties in the passing game have nothing to do with him. However, this group says alot about what Vick has had to work with.

2) This season represents the longest Vick has had to work in the same offense and with the same coaching staff in his career. The stuff you mention about the Falcons shifting away from the WCO is kind of off-base. Mora has always insisted that the Falcons don't run a WCO. So the offense that Vick is in (or will be in 2006) won't be demonstrably different than the ones he ran in 2004/2005. That said, it does appear the coaching staff is looking to utilize the shotgun more in non-obvious passing situations to try and better take advantage of Vick's running ability (Have been viewing film of WVU & Texas).

3) If I could equate any other professional athlete to Michael Vick - it would be Allen Iverson. He may not be nearly as volatile a personality, but from a freakish athletic talent standpoint while at the same time being viewed as a one man show...Iverson is a pretty decent comparison. I also think too that Iverson is known for a 'me against the world' type outlook, especially when public opinion of him starts to slant towards unfavorable. He then seems to rise to the challenge and raise his game another notch. I kind of see this same trait in Vick...he started to take that attitude. He didn't raise his game like Iverson has, but I think his renewed focus this off-season demonstrates that the lukewarm views of his ability and his ability to lead the Falcons has him salivating at the chance to redeem himself. Fact is, the amount of people who appear to view him favorably as a QB is half that compared to the amount of people that don't (which I think is ludicrous - the whole notion/suggestion of him needing to switch positions is laughable).

4) The one area of his game/persona that I did not like last year was what I perceived to be his exasperation level. I think when things are going bad - your QB needs to be the pillar of emotional stability and I think Vick's maturity (ort lack thereof) reared it's head a bit because I felt that instead of trying to change the mindset of a team clearly in trouble with negative momentum, I saw him more or less succumb to it...

Is that to say Vick doesn't possess leadership capabilities...? No, I've seen him demonstrate leadership on several occasions, but those were in game situations, not necessarily streak situations. With that said, if the Falcons start to slide again (and their early season schedule is difficult), you may want to steer clear of Vick.

5) I think the Falcons offense might be freed of the shackles of trying to find a role for TJ Duckett. Quite frankly, I think he'll be more of a Zack Crockett type (strictly goal line) this year than anything and you'll see Jerious Norwood become the primary back-up to Dunn. However, Norwood won't receive nearly the amount of work that Duckett did in the semi-platoon situation the Falcons have utilized with Dunn/Duckett since Vick has been the starter. Because of this, Vick will find the ball in his hands more as a ball carrier and passer.

And the simple equation is this - more attempts = more production

Overall: I think the Falcons are a much better team that 8-8, or at least have the potential to be much better than that. But alot rides on Vick's ability to make the next leap in his progression which seems to have stalled in neutral.

But the signs seem encouraging that the Falcons and Vick can start to move forward again and become a dangerous cvontender in the NFC again.

Prediction:

271 Completions

468 Attempts

57.9% Completion Rate

3201 Passing Yards

19 TD's

13 INT's

124 Rushes

806 Rushing Yards

6 TD's

4 Lost Fumbles

I differ on the Duckett situation somewhat, but you did an excellent job with Vick, and the Falcons as a whole. My predictions vary by only one more passing TD. Great Job!!

 

[half-fast]

Projections are fiction and it doesn't make any difference how many people agree on the numbers. The bottom line is that if Vick is your starting QB, you are probably screwed as a fantasy SuperBowl team. Now if he is your QB2, you have a very good number 2. The problem is, he needs to be taken too high to be a VALUE at QB2. So, I'd submit that the only strategy that makes sense, if you want Vick on your roster is to take 2 QBs back-to-back (for example in rounds 5 & 6, or 6 & 7). This works best if you are near one of the ends of the rounds, with few picks between your first and 2nd QBs. Also, if you are selecting Vick, don't waste a third pick at QB. More correctly: Take his handcuff (Schaub) with one of your final picks. You'll need the pick that would have been your QB3 to fish for talent at one of the other positions.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Vick is an enigma ...

His worth to you depends entirely on your league's scoring system. In my main league a QB gets graduated incentive points based on yardage, -3 for either an interception or a fumble, and 6 pts for a passing TD. Vick does not finish in the Top 15 here, and he is a complete HIT or MISS QB from week to week. Some weeks he will score 5 or less and the next week he will score 25 or more, and there is no correlation to how he plays against whom.

Last year he had 7 out of 15 games with less than 150 yards passing and 11 out of 15 with less than 200. Is this really who you want to be your starting Fantasy QB?

It remains to be seen whether the Atlanta coaching staff has figured out a way to utilize his talents or not ...

I am sorry too, to those who always bring up his lack of quality WR teammates, but to me you are way off based.

Brett Favre has consistently been a Top QB from his first starting year and aside from Sterling Sharpe who has he had as a stellar WR? No one. Freeman was a 2 year wonder [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Driver has had 2 good years [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Walker is a 1 year wonder. The point is that Favre gets it done no matter who he has to throw to. Take a look, Robert Brooks ... Heck, he even made Bill Schroeder look good.

Vick will not score more than 275 fantasy points even if healthy all 16 games.

His stat line will look something like this:

Passing Completions - 208

Passing Attempts - 400

Passing Yards - 2800

Passing TD's - 16

Interceptions - 16

Rushes - 106

Rushing Yards - 636

Rushing TD's - 4

Fumbles - 6

 

[diesel7982]

Vick is an enigma ...

His worth to you depends entirely on your league's scoring system.  In my main league a QB gets graduated incentive points based on yardage, -3 for either an interception or a fumble, and 6 pts for a passing TD.  Vick does not finish in the Top 15 here, and he is a complete HIT or MISS QB from week to week.  Some weeks he will score 5 or less and the next week he will score 25 or more, and there is no correlation to how he plays against whom.

Last year he had 7 out of 15 games with less than 150 yards passing and 11 out of 15 with less than 200.  Is this really who you want to be your starting Fantasy QB?

It remains to be seen whether the Atlanta coaching staff has figured out a way to utilize his talents or not ...

I am sorry too, to those who always bring up his lack of quality WR teammates, but to me you are way off based.

Brett Favre has consistently been a Top QB from his first starting year and aside from Sterling Sharpe who has he had as a stellar WR?  No one.  Freeman was a 2 year wonder [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Driver has had 2 good years [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Walker is a 1 year wonder.  The point is that Favre gets it done no matter who he has to throw to.  Take a look, Robert Brooks ... Heck, he even made Bill Schroeder look good.

Vick will not score more than 275 fantasy points even if healthy all 16 games.

His stat line will look something like this:

Passing Completions - 208

Passing Attempts - 400

Passing Yards - 2800

Passing TD's - 16

Interceptions - 16

Rushes - 106

Rushing Yards - 636

Rushing TD's - 4

Fumbles - 6

Thats the worst rationalization ever. EVAH. If Vick throws for 150 yards every single game, but runs for 50 yards, is that any different than a guy who throws for 250 and runs for zero?

 

[wannabee]

Vick is an enigma ...

His worth to you depends entirely on your league's scoring system.  In my main league a QB gets graduated incentive points based on yardage, -3 for either an interception or a fumble, and 6 pts for a passing TD.  Vick does not finish in the Top 15 here, and he is a complete HIT or MISS QB from week to week.  Some weeks he will score 5 or less and the next week he will score 25 or more, and there is no correlation to how he plays against whom.

Last year he had 7 out of 15 games with less than 150 yards passing and 11 out of 15 with less than 200.  Is this really who you want to be your starting Fantasy QB?

It remains to be seen whether the Atlanta coaching staff has figured out a way to utilize his talents or not ...

I am sorry too, to those who always bring up his lack of quality WR teammates, but to me you are way off based.

Brett Favre has consistently been a Top QB from his first starting year and aside from Sterling Sharpe who has he had as a stellar WR?  No one.  Freeman was a 2 year wonder [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Driver has had 2 good years [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Walker is a 1 year wonder.  The point is that Favre gets it done no matter who he has to throw to.  Take a look, Robert Brooks ... Heck, he even made Bill Schroeder look good.

Vick will not score more than 275 fantasy points even if healthy all 16 games.

His stat line will look something like this:

Passing Completions - 208

Passing Attempts - 400

Passing Yards - 2800

Passing TD's - 16

Interceptions - 16

Rushes - 106

Rushing Yards - 636

Rushing TD's - 4

Fumbles - 6

Thats the worst rationalization ever. EVAH.

Not to mention comparing the Packer WRs to the Falcon WRs. Freeman, Driver and Walker are/were all very good NFL, and fantasy, WRs.

 

[SSOG]

Projections are fiction and it doesn't make any difference how many people agree on the numbers. The bottom line is that if Vick is your starting QB, you are probably screwed as a fantasy SuperBowl team. Now if he is your QB2, you have a very good number 2. The problem is, he needs to be taken too high to be a VALUE at QB2. So, I'd submit that the only strategy that makes sense, if you want Vick on your roster is to take 2 QBs back-to-back (for example in rounds 5 & 6, or 6 & 7). This works best if you are near one of the ends of the rounds, with few picks between your first and 2nd QBs. Also, if you are selecting Vick, don't waste a third pick at QB. More correctly: Take his handcuff (Schaub) with one of your final picks. You'll need the pick that would have been your QB3 to fish for talent at one of the other positions.

Would you care to elaborate on this? Are you saying that Vick is an injury waiting to happen, or is he too inconsistant, or what?

 

[SSOG]

Passing Completions - 208

Passing Attempts - 400

Passing Yards - 2800

Passing TD's - 16

Interceptions - 16

Rushes - 106

Rushing Yards - 636

Rushing TD's - 4

Fumbles - 6

In most leagues, rushing yards count for AT LEAST twice as much as passing yards. Frequently, rushing TDs count for 50% more, as well. That means that, with those stats, Michael Vick would have as much value as a QB who threw for 4072 yards and 22 TDs. Not too shabby for a guy who, according to you, isn't starter-caliber.

 

[Dancing Bear]

You want Vick, you can have him. You will not win your Fantasy league with him!

Over his career he has had 59 starts and here is how his performance bears out with standard Footballguys.com scoring.

00 - 05 ppg ----- 8

06 - 10 ppg ----- 14

11 - 15 ppg ----- 6

16 - 20 ppg ----- 9

21 - 25 ppg ----- 10

26 - 30 ppg ----- 10

31 - 35 ppg ----- 1

36 - 40 ppg ----- 1

41 - 45 ppg ----- 0

That's nearly a 50% chance [47.5%] of scoring less than 15 ppg!

Compare that with some of his peers for their chance of scoring less than 15 ppg.

Marc Bulger is at 20.5%.

Daunte Culpepper is at 23.8%.

Peyton Manning is at 26.6%.

Brett Favre is at 42.2%.

Trent Green is at 43.7%.

Tom Brady is at 49.4%.

David Carr is at 73.8%.

You cannot ignore the fact that he is going to give you many games with less than 15 ppg and at nearly a 50-50 shot at that. That's a lot of weeks where you are playing catch up with the rest of your players.

Brett Favre assisted the various receivers that were on his team to excel and in fact be at the Top of the League. You really are not going to try and tell me that a Hall of Famer like Favre only succeeded because of his stellar receiving corp [brooks, Freeman, Schroeder, Driver, and Walker].

* - Brooks had one excellent year and one nominal year; out of 8 years with Green Bay.

* - Freeman had two excellent years and one nominal year; out of 8 years with Green Bay and 1 year with Philadelphia.

* - Schroeder had three nominal years; out of 5 years in Green Bay and 2 years in Detroit.

* - Driver has had two excellent years and one nominal year; out of 7 years with Green Bay.

* - Walker has had one excellent year; out of 4 years in Green Bay.

Michael Vick has done nothing like this; he has not elevated the play of any of his WR corp in any way; none of his WR has cracked 900 yards. In fact he helped to shelf a Top 5 Fantasy WR in Peerless Price ...

Just so it is clear to those drinking the Michael Vick Kool-Aid, I do believe that he is an incredibly exciting QB to watch and the Atlanta Falcons have a great winning record with him at the helm. He is also good for the NFL! It is not about that; it's about whether or not he can perform from a Fantasy perspective [within the scoring system context for your league]. There are at least 12 other QB's that I would take before Vick without blinking.

 

[Tau837]

Vick is an enigma ...

His worth to you depends entirely on your league's scoring system.  In my main league a QB gets graduated incentive points based on yardage, -3 for either an interception or a fumble, and 6 pts for a passing TD.  Vick does not finish in the Top 15 here, and he is a complete HIT or MISS QB from week to week.  Some weeks he will score 5 or less and the next week he will score 25 or more, and there is no correlation to how he plays against whom.

Last year he had 7 out of 15 games with less than 150 yards passing and 11 out of 15 with less than 200.  Is this really who you want to be your starting Fantasy QB?

It remains to be seen whether the Atlanta coaching staff has figured out a way to utilize his talents or not ...

I am sorry too, to those who always bring up his lack of quality WR teammates, but to me you are way off based.

Brett Favre has consistently been a Top QB from his first starting year and aside from Sterling Sharpe who has he had as a stellar WR?  No one.  Freeman was a 2 year wonder [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Driver has had 2 good years [maybe 3 if you stretch it], Walker is a 1 year wonder.  The point is that Favre gets it done no matter who he has to throw to.  Take a look, Robert Brooks ... Heck, he even made Bill Schroeder look good.

Vick will not score more than 275 fantasy points even if healthy all 16 games.

His stat line will look something like this:

Passing Completions - 208

Passing Attempts - 400

Passing Yards - 2800

Passing TD's - 16

Interceptions - 16

Rushes - 106

Rushing Yards - 636

Rushing TD's - 4

Fumbles - 6

Thats the worst rationalization ever. EVAH. If Vick throws for 150 yards every single game, but runs for 50 yards, is that any different than a guy who throws for 250 and runs for zero?

 

[Tau837]

I waited awhile before posting on Vick.  Don't post nearly as much as I used to (life has just gotten too busy...), but when it comes to Falcon players, I still think I can provide additional insight (although a lot good stuff has been said).

A couple of points I'd like to make:

1)  Who is the best WR Vick has ever had to throw to?  Brian Finneran?  Peerless Price?  Shawn Jefferson?  Dez White?  I don't want to give the impression that Vick's difficulties in the passing game have nothing to do with him.  However, this group says alot about what Vick has had to work with.

2)  This season represents the longest Vick has had to work in the same offense and with the same coaching staff in his career.  The stuff you mention about the Falcons shifting away from the WCO is kind of off-base.  Mora has always insisted that the Falcons don't run a WCO.  So the offense that Vick is in (or will be in 2006) won't be demonstrably different than the ones he ran in 2004/2005.  That said, it does appear the coaching staff is looking to utilize the shotgun more in non-obvious passing situations to try and better take advantage of Vick's running ability (Have been viewing film of WVU & Texas).

3)  If I could equate any other professional athlete to Michael Vick - it would be Allen Iverson.  He may not be nearly as volatile a personality, but from a freakish athletic talent standpoint while at the same time being viewed as a one man show...Iverson is a pretty decent comparison.  I also think too that Iverson is known for a 'me against the world' type outlook, especially when public opinion of him starts to slant towards unfavorable.  He then seems to rise to the challenge and raise his game another notch.  I kind of see this same trait in Vick...he started to take that attitude.  He didn't raise his game like Iverson has, but I think his renewed focus this off-season demonstrates that the lukewarm views of his ability and his ability to lead the Falcons has him salivating at the chance to redeem himself.  Fact is, the amount of people who appear to view him favorably as a QB is half that compared to the amount of people that don't (which I think is ludicrous - the whole notion/suggestion of him needing to switch positions is laughable).

4)  The one area of his game/persona that I did not like last year was what I perceived to be his exasperation level.  I think when things are going bad - your QB needs to be the pillar of emotional stability and I think Vick's maturity (ort lack thereof) reared it's head a bit because I felt that instead of trying to change the mindset of a team clearly in trouble with negative momentum, I saw him more or less succumb to it...

Is that to say Vick doesn't possess leadership capabilities...?  No, I've seen him demonstrate leadership on several occasions, but those were in game situations, not necessarily streak situations.  With that said, if the Falcons start to slide again (and their early season schedule is difficult), you may want to steer clear of Vick.

5)  I think the Falcons offense might be freed of the shackles of trying to find a role for TJ Duckett.  Quite frankly, I think he'll be more of a Zack Crockett type (strictly goal line) this year than anything and you'll see Jerious Norwood become the primary back-up to Dunn.  However, Norwood won't receive nearly the amount of work that Duckett did in the semi-platoon situation the Falcons have utilized with Dunn/Duckett since Vick has been the starter.  Because of this, Vick will find the ball in his hands more as a ball carrier and passer. 

And the simple equation is this - more attempts = more production

Overall:  I think the Falcons are a much better team that 8-8, or at least have the potential to be much better than that.  But alot rides on Vick's ability to make the next leap in his progression which seems to have stalled in neutral.

But the signs seem encouraging that the Falcons and Vick can start to move forward again and become a dangerous cvontender in the NFC again.

Prediction:

271 Completions

468 Attempts

57.9% Completion Rate

3201 Passing Yards

19 TD's

13 INT's

124 Rushes

806 Rushing Yards

6 TD's

4 Lost Fumbles

I'm interested as to why/how Vick would get 20+ more rushing attempts and almost 100 more passing attemtps. I'm not saying it's impossible, just curious as to how that comes to fruition.

Presumably, this projection assumes 16 games healthy. Last season Vick only played 15. Scale up last year's numbers and you get 413 passing attempts and 109 rushing attempts. So the projection is predicting an increase of 55 passing attempts (3.4 per game) and 15 rushing attempts (just under 1 per game).The rushing attempts are easy. Just look at the year before last, when Vick wasn't bothered by a knee injury. He ran 120 times in 15 games. This projection is right in line with that.

As for passing attempts, he covered rationale for that in #5 above, which culminated with this:

Vick will find the ball in his hands more as a ball carrier and passer.

Being in the offense and with the same coaching staff should also help, as should the improvement in his young WRs as they continue to gain experience. And working out of the shotgun more this year could help a bit as well. All of these help Vick to be a better passer and help the coaching staff to be more confident in him as a passer.

 

[Big Score]

You want Vick, you can have him. You will not win your Fantasy league with him!

Over his career he has had 59 starts and here is how his performance bears out with standard Footballguys.com scoring.

00 - 05 ppg ----- 8

06 - 10 ppg ----- 14

11 - 15 ppg ----- 6

16 - 20 ppg ----- 9

21 - 25 ppg ----- 10

26 - 30 ppg ----- 10

31 - 35 ppg ----- 1

36 - 40 ppg ----- 1

41 - 45 ppg ----- 0

That's nearly a 50% chance [47.5%] of scoring less than 15 ppg!

Compare that with some of his peers for their chance of scoring less than 15 ppg.

Marc Bulger is at 20.5%.

Daunte Culpepper is at 23.8%.

Peyton Manning is at 26.6%.

Brett Favre is at 42.2%.

Trent Green is at 43.7%.

Tom Brady is at 49.4%.

David Carr is at 73.8%.

You cannot ignore the fact that he is going to give you many games with less than 15 ppg and at nearly a 50-50 shot at that. That's a lot of weeks where you are playing catch up with the rest of your players.

Good analysis Dancing Bear Looking at the average ADP of Brady (generally QB #3), I think you've just made an extremely strong argument to wait several rounds and draft Vick instead (generally QB #10). Much better value.

Then, considering how close to the 50 / 50 Mendoza line of less than 15 Fantasy points per game Favre & Green are, going with their respective ADP's, Vick's upside probably makes him a better value pick than those two QB's as well.

Especially when you consider the supposed change in Offensive direction the new head Coaches for KC & Green Bay are planning.

 

[SSOG]

You want Vick, you can have him. You will not win your Fantasy league with him!

Over his career he has had 59 starts and here is how his performance bears out with standard Footballguys.com scoring.

00 - 05 ppg ----- 8

06 - 10 ppg ----- 14

11 - 15 ppg ----- 6

16 - 20 ppg ----- 9

21 - 25 ppg ----- 10

26 - 30 ppg ----- 10

31 - 35 ppg ----- 1

36 - 40 ppg ----- 1

41 - 45 ppg ----- 0

That's nearly a 50% chance [47.5%] of scoring less than 15 ppg!

Compare that with some of his peers for their chance of scoring less than 15 ppg.

Marc Bulger is at 20.5%.

Daunte Culpepper is at 23.8%.

Peyton Manning is at 26.6%.

Brett Favre is at 42.2%.

Trent Green is at 43.7%.

Tom Brady is at 49.4%.

David Carr is at 73.8%.

You cannot ignore the fact that he is going to give you many games with less than 15 ppg and at nearly a 50-50 shot at that. That's a lot of weeks where you are playing catch up with the rest of your players.

Good analysis Dancing Bear Looking at the average ADP of Brady (generally QB #3), I think you've just made an extremely strong argument to wait several rounds and draft Vick instead (generally QB #10). Much better value.

Then, considering how close to the 50 / 50 Mendoza line of less than 15 Fantasy points per game Favre & Green are, going with their respective ADP's, Vick's upside probably makes him a better value pick than those two QB's as well.

Especially when you consider the supposed change in Offensive direction the new head Coaches for KC & Green Bay are planning.

Agreed. So Vick is no Manning/Culpepper/Bulger. I don't think anyone was saying that he was. Name 12 other QBs that put up less than 15 fantasy points at a lower clip than Vick's 47.5%, and maybe we'll have a discussion that he's not "starter quality". Again, so far you've provided THREE, and shown that Michael Vick is more consistant than the consensus #2 fantasy QB in the entire NFL this season. Good job.Also, in case you missed it earler...

People call him a "boom or bust" kind of guy, but I strongly disagree with that assessment. He scored under 10 points just three times last season. He scored over 19 points eight times. Let's compare this "boom or bust" QB to the rock solid Trent Green, shall we? Trent Green scored under 10 points... three times... and over 19 points... seven times. Okay, bad example. How about Hasselbeck? He's a rock. Hasselbeck had... two games under 10, and 6 games over 19. Okay, okay, enough fun and games and fluky comparisons. Let's compare Vick to Peyton Manning, the poster child for QB consistancy. Peyton scored under 10 points... three times. He scored over 19 points... nine times.

 

[Dancing Bear]

SSOG,

If you look at the context of my previous post, I did not state that there were 12 QB's with better percentages than Vick, but that there were 12 I would take before him. In fact, 9 of them do have better ratios for the 15 ppg mark; the other 3 are QB's that I would prefer to have if I was boxed into a corner. Here are the 9 who are better:

Trent - Green - 43.7%

Brett - Favre - 42.2%

Kurt - Warner - 41.7%

Donovan - McNabb - 38.0%

Carson - Palmer - 37.9%

Aaron - Brooks - 36.1%

Peyton - Manning - 26.6%

Daunte - Culpepper - 23.8%

Marc - Bulger - 20.5%

Here are the other 3 QB's:

Eli - Manning - 54.2%

Ben - Roethlisberger - 53.8%

Matt - Hasselbeck - 53.5%

I did not choose to respond to your review of 2005 because it is too small a sample size and you conveniently chose cut-offs. My analysis is based on each QB's career performance in total and it assume no cut-offs, but provides a full distribution perspective.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG,

If you look at the context of my previous post, I did not state that there were 12 QB's with better percentages than Vick, but that there were 12 I would take before him. In fact, 9 of them do have better ratios for the 15 ppg mark; the other 3 are QB's that I would prefer to have if I was boxed into a corner. Here are the 9 who are better:

Trent - Green - 43.7%

Brett - Favre - 42.2%

Kurt - Warner - 41.7%

Donovan - McNabb - 38.0%

Carson - Palmer - 37.9%

Aaron - Brooks - 36.1%

Peyton - Manning - 26.6%

Daunte - Culpepper - 23.8%

Marc - Bulger - 20.5%

Here are the other 3 QB's:

Eli - Manning - 54.2%

Ben - Roethlisberger - 53.8%

Matt - Hasselbeck - 53.5%

I did not choose to respond to your review of 2005 because it is too small a sample size and you conveniently chose cut-offs. My analysis is based on each QB's career performance in total and it assume no cut-offs, but provides a full distribution perspective.

Fine, were my cutoffs too arbitrary for you? Here, let's compare Vick to some other QBs across a range of cutoffs, shall we? Here are the results from 6 different QBs last season. They were Peyton Manning, Brett Favre, Trent Green, Michael Vick, Aaron Brooks, and Eli Manning. Try and guess which one was Vick.QB1

8.0 points or less- 1

8.1 to 10.0 points- 1

10.1 to 12.0 points- 1

12.1 to 15.0 points- 2

15.1 to 18.0 points- 3

18.1 to 20.0 points- 0

20.1 to 22.0 points- 3

22.1 points or more- 2

QB2

8.0 points or less- 1

8.1 to 10.0 points- 3

10.1 to 12.0 points- 3

12.1 to 15.0 points- 1

15.1 to 18.0 points- 4

18.1 to 20.0 points- 0

20.1 to 22.0 points- 0

22.1 points or more- 4

QB3

8.0 points or less- 1

8.1 to 10.0 points- 0

10.1 to 12.0 points- 2

12.1 to 15.0 points- 4

15.1 to 18.0 points- 4

18.1 to 20.0 points- 0

20.1 to 22.0 points- 0

22.1 points or more- 5

QB4

8.0 points or less- 2

8.1 to 10.0 points- 1

10.1 to 12.0 points- 0

12.1 to 15.0 points- 3

15.1 to 18.0 points- 1

18.1 to 20.0 points- 2

20.1 to 22.0 points- 2

22.1 points or more- 4

QB5

8.0 points or less- 3

8.1 to 10.0 points- 0

10.1 to 12.0 points- 1

12.1 to 15.0 points- 1

15.1 to 18.0 points- 0

18.1 to 20.0 points- 3

20.1 to 22.0 points- 3

22.1 points or more- 5

QB6

8.0 points or less- 0

8.1 to 10.0 points- 3

10.1 to 12.0 points- 1

12.1 to 15.0 points- 1

15.1 to 18.0 points- 4

18.1 to 20.0 points- 3

20.1 to 22.0 points- 2

22.1 points or more- 2

Having trouble figuring it out?

 

[Big Score]

SSOG,

Dancing Bear already mentioned that he felt going off 2005 stats alone, was too small a sample size.

Do your cut off question thing for the 6 different QB's over their careers and see if he can figure out which stats belong to who.

 

[SSOG]

SSOG,

Dancing Bear already mentioned that he felt going off 2005 stats alone, was too small a sample size.

Do your cut off question thing for the 6 different QB's over their careers and see if he can figure out which stats belong to who.

Well, even if you do it for the last 3 years, I feel like that's going to drastically skew the results. That'll include Eli Manning's rookie season, Kurt Warner's year with the Giants, Michael Vick's results coming back from injury and working with Dan Reeves, etc.However, out of curiousity, I decided to go ahead and see just how Vick's distribution is through his whole career... and I discovered something very interesting. Since 2002, you know what percentage of the time Michael Vick has scored below 15 points? It's not "almost 50%", it's not even 40%. It's 38%. And that's including the games he left early because of injury, and it's also including his first start back after his huge injury in 2003 (where he had 11 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts). Take those games out of the system, and suddenly Vick is at 30%. Leave them in to compensate for the increased risk that he gets injured, and he's still got a better over-15 rate than Favre, Green, Warner, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Hasselbeck, and McNabb.

Now, you may prefer those guys to Vick, and that's fine... just don't try to tell me that you can't win your league with Vick at the helm. That's patently absurd.

 

[Big Score]

However, out of curiousity, I decided to go ahead and see just how Vick's distribution is through his whole career... and I discovered something very interesting. Since 2002, you know what percentage of the time Michael Vick has scored below 15 points? It's not "almost 50%", it's not even 40%. It's 38%. And that's including the games he left early because of injury, and it's also including his first start back after his huge injury in 2003 (where he had 11 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts). Take those games out of the system, and suddenly Vick is at 30%. Leave them in to compensate for the increased risk that he gets injured, and he's still got a better over-15 rate than Favre, Green, Warner, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Hasselbeck, and McNabb.

So you've got Vick coming in at a 38% chance for him to score less than 15 points, calculated from his career stats.Dancing Bear has Vick coming in at a 47.5% chance for him to score less than 15 points, calculated from his career stats.

Ok, fess up.

Which one of you two screwed up their math, because at almost 10%, that's a BIG discrepancy in ya'lls percentages.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

I waited awhile before posting on Vick.  Don't post nearly as much as I used to (life has just gotten too busy...), but when it comes to Falcon players, I still think I can provide additional insight (although a lot good stuff has been said).

A couple of points I'd like to make:

1)  Who is the best WR Vick has ever had to throw to?  Brian Finneran?  Peerless Price?  Shawn Jefferson?  Dez White?  I don't want to give the impression that Vick's difficulties in the passing game have nothing to do with him.  However, this group says alot about what Vick has had to work with.

2)  This season represents the longest Vick has had to work in the same offense and with the same coaching staff in his career.  The stuff you mention about the Falcons shifting away from the WCO is kind of off-base.  Mora has always insisted that the Falcons don't run a WCO.  So the offense that Vick is in (or will be in 2006) won't be demonstrably different than the ones he ran in 2004/2005.  That said, it does appear the coaching staff is looking to utilize the shotgun more in non-obvious passing situations to try and better take advantage of Vick's running ability (Have been viewing film of WVU & Texas).

3)  If I could equate any other professional athlete to Michael Vick - it would be Allen Iverson.  He may not be nearly as volatile a personality, but from a freakish athletic talent standpoint while at the same time being viewed as a one man show...Iverson is a pretty decent comparison.  I also think too that Iverson is known for a 'me against the world' type outlook, especially when public opinion of him starts to slant towards unfavorable.  He then seems to rise to the challenge and raise his game another notch.  I kind of see this same trait in Vick...he started to take that attitude.  He didn't raise his game like Iverson has, but I think his renewed focus this off-season demonstrates that the lukewarm views of his ability and his ability to lead the Falcons has him salivating at the chance to redeem himself.  Fact is, the amount of people who appear to view him favorably as a QB is half that compared to the amount of people that don't (which I think is ludicrous - the whole notion/suggestion of him needing to switch positions is laughable).

4)  The one area of his game/persona that I did not like last year was what I perceived to be his exasperation level.  I think when things are going bad - your QB needs to be the pillar of emotional stability and I think Vick's maturity (ort lack thereof) reared it's head a bit because I felt that instead of trying to change the mindset of a team clearly in trouble with negative momentum, I saw him more or less succumb to it...

Is that to say Vick doesn't possess leadership capabilities...?  No, I've seen him demonstrate leadership on several occasions, but those were in game situations, not necessarily streak situations.  With that said, if the Falcons start to slide again (and their early season schedule is difficult), you may want to steer clear of Vick.

5)  I think the Falcons offense might be freed of the shackles of trying to find a role for TJ Duckett.  Quite frankly, I think he'll be more of a Zack Crockett type (strictly goal line) this year than anything and you'll see Jerious Norwood become the primary back-up to Dunn.  However, Norwood won't receive nearly the amount of work that Duckett did in the semi-platoon situation the Falcons have utilized with Dunn/Duckett since Vick has been the starter.  Because of this, Vick will find the ball in his hands more as a ball carrier and passer. 

And the simple equation is this - more attempts = more production

Overall:  I think the Falcons are a much better team that 8-8, or at least have the potential to be much better than that.  But alot rides on Vick's ability to make the next leap in his progression which seems to have stalled in neutral.

But the signs seem encouraging that the Falcons and Vick can start to move forward again and become a dangerous cvontender in the NFC again.

Prediction:

271 Completions

468 Attempts

57.9% Completion Rate

3201 Passing Yards

19 TD's

13 INT's

124 Rushes

806 Rushing Yards

6 TD's

4 Lost Fumbles

I'm interested as to why/how Vick would get 20+ more rushing attempts and almost 100 more passing attemtps. I'm not saying it's impossible, just curious as to how that comes to fruition.

A couple of factors at work here:1) The Falcons ran the ball 531 times last season and passed 490 times (including when sacked). I anticipate the Falcons turning this ratio around where instead of running 52% of the time, they'll be passing that much.

2) I am assuming (perhaps wrongfully) that Vick can play all in 16 games - although perhaps not take every snap.

3) The Falcons finished 20th in TOP in 2005. By virtue of the defensive improvements alone - I think they'll do better in this category which would more than likely translate into more offensive plays during the course of the season.

4) The Duckett Factor - simply put, I think the touches that would normally go to Duckett will be dispersed mostly to the passing game while Jerious Norwood apprentices under Warrick Dunn in a less frequent supporting role as #2 RB.

With all of this said, I think it's fair to question whether Vick can make the leap in his game. I happen to be on the side of the fence that thinks he will.

 

[SSOG]

However, out of curiousity, I decided to go ahead and see just how Vick's distribution is through his whole career... and I discovered something very interesting. Since 2002, you know what percentage of the time Michael Vick has scored below 15 points? It's not "almost 50%", it's not even 40%. It's 38%. And that's including the games he left early because of injury, and it's also including his first start back after his huge injury in 2003 (where he had 11 pass attempts and 3 rush attempts). Take those games out of the system, and suddenly Vick is at 30%. Leave them in to compensate for the increased risk that he gets injured, and he's still got a better over-15 rate than Favre, Green, Warner, Manning, Roethlisberger, and Hasselbeck, and McNabb.

So you've got Vick coming in at a 38% chance for him to score less than 15 points, calculated from his career stats.Dancing Bear has Vick coming in at a 47.5% chance for him to score less than 15 points, calculated from his career stats.

Ok, fess up.

Which one of you two screwed up their math, because at almost 10%, that's a BIG discrepancy in ya'lls percentages.

Bear included his rookie campaign (2001), where he played in 8 games (I don't know how many he started), and didn't put up a single 15 point outing. I would make the arguement that how Vick performed in his rookie campaign is not particularly relevant when discussing how Vick will perform this season.Also, Bear somehow has that he's started 49 games, but according to ProFootballReference, he's only even APPEARED in 48 games (doesn't say whether he started or not). Dunno where the 1-game discrepency comes from.

 

[The Football Freak]

Assuming he misses a couple games as he has done most other years, I would predict:

2300 yards for a 56% passing rate with 17/14.

700 yards rushing with 5 TDs with 6 fumbles lost.

I think he will end up around the 14 spot give or take a few, just as he did last year in my league, and be a marginal starter or a good QB2.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Big Score, SSOG and any other posters,

I am sorry. I found an error for how I was handling Week #16, 2004 for Michael Vick; indeed he did not play ... The revised values for Vick's careers numbers with 15 ppg or less is now 46.6% instead of the previous 47.5% that I reported. It does not change his placement among his present peers, nor is it substantially further away from 50% or my original thesis.

With regards to the review of Vick's numbers from 2002 to the present, I believe that SSOG and I would report the same numbers.

So it clear, I do not feel comfortable throwing out parts of anyone's numbers no matter what the nature of the intentions. It muddies the stability and the nature of any objective comparisons. If you throw out Vick's 2001 rookie season [8 games], then are you willing to throw out all other QB's rookie seasons? Or just their first 8 games? Should we review only their last 32 games [outside of any rookie years], or their best 32 games?

The reason for using their entire career is that it assesses everything that they have accomplished, and it objectively reports the facts of their ability to perform under the broadest possible set of circumstances.

 

[SSOG]

Big Score, SSOG and any other posters,

I am sorry. I found an error for how I was handling Week #16, 2004 for Michael Vick; indeed he did not play ... The revised values for Vick's careers numbers with 15 ppg or less is now 46.6% instead of the previous 47.5% that I reported. It does not change his placement among his present peers, nor is it substantially further away from 50% or my original thesis.

With regards to the review of Vick's numbers from 2002 to the present, I believe that SSOG and I would report the same numbers.

So it clear, I do not feel comfortable throwing out parts of anyone's numbers no matter what the nature of the intentions. It muddies the stability and the nature of any objective comparisons. If you throw out Vick's 2001 rookie season [8 games], then are you willing to throw out all other QB's rookie seasons? Or just their first 8 games? Should we review only their last 32 games [outside of any rookie years], or their best 32 games?

The reason for using their entire career is that it assesses everything that they have accomplished, and it objectively reports the facts of their ability to perform under the broadest possible set of circumstances.

Absolutely, I would without question or hesitation throw out any QBs rookie year the second they have consistantly demonstrated that they have progressed beyond that level of play.If Alex Smith plays in 9 games this season and goes over 25 points in every single one of them, then next season are you going to say "Alex Smith is under 10 points in 50% of his games"? Do you look at Peyton Manning and say that he's extremely INT-prone (he averages 16.25 a year over his career), despite the fact that he's only thrown 10 in each of the last 3 seasons? Should we suggest that Plummer is likely to throw as many TDs as INTs this season because his career ratio is 150:148, while ignoring the fact that he has been +26 over the last 3 years in Denver (and had the lowest INT% in the league last year)? What about McNabb- which stat is more relevant, the one that says he's averaged 360 yards rushing a season, or the stat that says his rushing yardage totals have declined every year for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS? Should we have considered Elway's rookie numbers (sub-50% completion, sub-6.5 ypa, 1:2 TD/INT ratio) even going into his 12th season, when he had never matched any of those career lows ever again?

Yes, Michael Vick has clearly and unhesitatingly demonstrated that his level of play is now far above where it was when he was a rookie, and I have absolutely no problem at all disregarding his rookie numbers as a result. If someone feels that adding Vick's rookie numbers somehow paint a more accurate picture of Michael Vick today, then they're welcome to include them, but I think that history has demonstrated time and time again that they are sorely mistaken. And no, I would have no hesitation throwing out Eli Manning's rookie numbers, either. He has demonstrated that he has improved as a QB, and he should be treated as such.

 

[Weiner Dog]

Big Score, SSOG and any other posters,

I am sorry. I found an error for how I was handling Week #16, 2004 for Michael Vick; indeed he did not play ... The revised values for Vick's careers numbers with 15 ppg or less is now 46.6% instead of the previous 47.5% that I reported. It does not change his placement among his present peers, nor is it substantially further away from 50% or my original thesis.

With regards to the review of Vick's numbers from 2002 to the present, I believe that SSOG and I would report the same numbers.

So it clear, I do not feel comfortable throwing out parts of anyone's numbers no matter what the nature of the intentions. It muddies the stability and the nature of any objective comparisons. If you throw out Vick's 2001 rookie season [8 games], then are you willing to throw out all other QB's rookie seasons? Or just their first 8 games? Should we review only their last 32 games [outside of any rookie years], or their best 32 games?

The reason for using their entire career is that it assesses everything that they have accomplished, and it objectively reports the facts of their ability to perform under the broadest possible set of circumstances.

Absolutely, I would without question or hesitation throw out any QBs rookie year the second they have consistantly demonstrated that they have progressed beyond that level of play.If Alex Smith plays in 9 games this season and goes over 25 points in every single one of them, then next season are you going to say "Alex Smith is under 10 points in 50% of his games"? Do you look at Peyton Manning and say that he's extremely INT-prone (he averages 16.25 a year over his career), despite the fact that he's only thrown 10 in each of the last 3 seasons? Should we suggest that Plummer is likely to throw as many TDs as INTs this season because his career ratio is 150:148, while ignoring the fact that he has been +26 over the last 3 years in Denver (and had the lowest INT% in the league last year)? What about McNabb- which stat is more relevant, the one that says he's averaged 360 yards rushing a season, or the stat that says his rushing yardage totals have declined every year for FIVE STRAIGHT YEARS? Should we have considered Elway's rookie numbers (sub-50% completion, sub-6.5 ypa, 1:2 TD/INT ratio) even going into his 12th season, when he had never matched any of those career lows ever again?

Yes, Michael Vick has clearly and unhesitatingly demonstrated that his level of play is now far above where it was when he was a rookie, and I have absolutely no problem at all disregarding his rookie numbers as a result. If someone feels that adding Vick's rookie numbers somehow paint a more accurate picture of Michael Vick today, then they're welcome to include them, but I think that history has demonstrated time and time again that they are sorely mistaken. And no, I would have no hesitation throwing out Eli Manning's rookie numbers, either. He has demonstrated that he has improved as a QB, and he should be treated as such.

Amen, brotha.

 

[Shiver44]

I have four points, in Vick's favor, as to why he'll have a breakout campaign.

1.

Don't underestimate the Bill Musgrave Factor. Every time he's stepped into a situation as the QB Coach, that player has either a career year or has revitalized their career. He's a great QB coach, and should help Vick.

2005 - Mark Brunell

With Musgrave

23 TD / 10 INT / 3050 Yards / 85.9 Passer Rating / 57.7 Completion Percentage

The Year Before W/O Musgrave

7 TD / 6 INT / 1194 Yards / 63.9 Passer Rating / 49.8 Completion Percentage

1999 - Steve Beuerlein

With Musgrave

36 TD / 15 INT / 4436 Yards / 94.6 Passer Rating / 60.1 Completion Percentage

The Year Before W/O Musgrave

17 TD / 12 INT / 2613 Yards / 88.2 Passer Rating / 63.0 Completion Percentage

1997 - Jeff George

With Musgrave

29 TD / 9 INT / 3917 Yards / 91.2 Passer Rating / 55.7 Completion Percentage

The Year Before W/O Musgrave

Injured, but 1997 was by far his best season.

2.

Continuity, something that is crucial for success for the QB position. Look at Vick's career, thus far he's had little of what one would call "stability." For example, this is the first year he's ever had with the same starting Receivers from the past season. Anyone who's watched Peyton Manning, or Carson Palmer, knows they have a near psychic relationship with their Receivers. That is something Vick has never had.

Another key, Vick showed a lot of trust in Jenkins and White in the last nine games of last season. White had 400 yards in that stretch, Jenkins had 259 in the last seven games. Vick, contrary to what you'd hear, actually averaged over 190 yards per game passing in that span. Which translates to a near-3000 yard campaign. Which combined with his rushing production, is top-3 numbers. Which leads to number three.

3.

He should only get better. He just turned 26 years old. Over the last portion of last year he showed a lot of growth, as noted by several experts. Here is some of those quotes;

Ron Jaworski:

He's starting to evolve into a very good quarterback, as he's started to mature and stop relying on his physical gifts.

He now goes through his progressions and doesn't just run the ball the moment his first option is covered. He's proving he's going to be a terrific quarterback in the long term, as he's realized what he needs to do to be great. He can make any throw in the league and he's starting to understand what that means.

KC Joyner:

The good news is that Vick seems to be getting into synch with his young receivers, Michael Jenkins and Roddy White, and that might help reduce both the drop and inaccurate pass issues.'

'If he continues to develop the passing skills he showed in this stretch, he'll be taking a step closer to becoming Elway. If he stops and returns to his previous style, he'll go back to becoming Cunningham.

Finally, my last case, it takes three years to learn the West Coast Offense. Don't believe me, believe Mike Holmgren, because I think he would know.

Mike Holmgren professes that it takes three years to make a quarterback in the West Coast offense, and it takes five years for a West Coast quarterback to become a very good one.

That was from a article dealing with Matt Hasslebeck, from last season. Everyone that knows the WCO knows how long the learning curve is. Bill Walsh, Mike Holmgren and Steve Young have said over and over again; "it takes three years."No one should've expected Michael Vick, to transform from a freelancer, into a WCO Quarterback in either '04 or '05. He has shown flashes of greatness in multiple games, but on one knowledgable of the WCO expected him to become consistent at it until this year. Three years ago, Steve Young said "expect Michael to struggle at times for a couple of years."

4.

The most Fantasy relevant. At his worst as a player, he's never been worse than 12th in traditional scoring systems, and as high as 3rd, in '02. There is not much downside to Michael Vick, and loads of upside. His value is at an all-time low, due to negative media he's had. Which means, you can get him at value for the first time. Where before he was over-drafted in the past.