Player Spotlight: Muhsin Muhammad (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Muhsin Muhammad, WR, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Muhsin Muhammad Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Rev]

People forget that Muhammad is only a single season removed from one of the best fantasy seasons EVER for a wide reciever. That performance seems like a distant memory since he was traded to the sputtering Bears offense, and since he struggled last year with both a rookie quarterback and a broken hand. However, when Rex came back late last season, the chemestry between he and Muhammad was unmistakeable. Thus, if Rex can stay healthy and continue to improve, the passing game has a terrific opportunity to gain traction upon the path that the Bear's stellar defense and running game will blaze. If and when that happens, Muhammad should be the primary beneficiary:

84/1150/9

 

[diesel7982]

70/925/6

 

[Banger]

People forget that Muhammad is only a single season removed from one of the best fantasy seasons EVER for a wide reciever. That performance seems like a distant memory since he was traded to the sputtering Bears offense, and since he struggled last year with both a rookie quarterback and a broken hand. However, when Rex came back late last season, the chemestry between he and Muhammad was unmistakeable. Thus, if Rex can stay healthy and continue to improve, the passing game has a terrific opportunity to gain traction upon the path that the Bear's stellar defense and running game will blaze. If and when that happens, Muhammad should be the primary beneficiary:

84/1150/9

Unmistakable chemistry? you mean 3-40 and 5-58-1? The Bears offense is what is and I don't see it changing much at all. They will try to win with defense and grinding the ball down your throat with the running game. Generally teams that can win with defense and running the ball don't change unless they have to and it doesn't look like they will have to change. I'd be surprised if he got over 1,000 receiving. 75-850-5

 

[Armando]

65/800/6

Bears offense is what it is and it's not going to change. Ground and pound and let the defense do their thing.

 

[Bankerguy]

Poor Mushy.

So much talent.....such a crappy Offense.

The signing of Griese is interesting and of note. Still, it is hard to predict gaudy numbers.

68

880

6

 

[beardown1019]

People forget that Muhammad is only a single season removed from one of the best fantasy seasons EVER for a wide reciever. That performance seems like a distant memory since he was traded to the sputtering Bears offense, and since he struggled last year with both a rookie quarterback and a broken hand. However, when Rex came back late last season, the chemestry between he and Muhammad was unmistakeable. Thus, if Rex can stay healthy and continue to improve, the passing game has a terrific opportunity to gain traction upon the path that the Bear's stellar defense and running game will blaze. If and when that happens, Muhammad should be the primary beneficiary:

84/1150/9

The season you speak of was a career year by any measure of the standard. His previous best for TD's was 8. The Bears red zone offense will not be tailored to throwing the ball to WR's this year at all. With the reliance on the run, Benson's apparent "red zone ability" and the Bears propensity to throw to the TE's inside the 20's I'd be surprised to see him record any more than 5 touchdown passes. Additionally, he dropped a ton of catchable balls last year, regardless of who was throwing to him. Place that with the fact that he has a hard time seperating from defenders, his inability to concentrate at key times during the games, and the fact he failed to record more than 91 yards in any game last year, isnt very good for a supposed #1 receiver. I dont see him matching even last years numbers. The fact is the Bears are a run first team and want to get Bradley, Clark, and Benson more involved in the offense. 61/680/5

 

[oswizzle]

80 Rec 975 yds 8 Td's

If Grossman stays healthy all year Moose will be a nice Value

 

[Rev]

People forget that Muhammad is only a single season removed from one of the best fantasy seasons EVER for a wide reciever.  That performance seems like a distant memory since he was traded to the sputtering Bears offense, and since he struggled last year with both a rookie quarterback and a broken hand.  However, when Rex came back late last season, the chemestry between he and Muhammad was unmistakeable.  Thus, if Rex can stay healthy and continue to improve, the passing game has a terrific opportunity to gain traction upon the path that the Bear's stellar defense and running game will blaze.  If and when that happens, Muhammad should be the primary beneficiary:

    84/1150/9

The season you speak of was a career year by any measure of the standard. His previous best for TD's was 8. The Bears red zone offense will not be tailored to throwing the ball to WR's this year at all. With the reliance on the run, Benson's apparent "red zone ability" and the Bears propensity to throw to the TE's inside the 20's I'd be surprised to see him record any more than 5 touchdown passes. Additionally, he dropped a ton of catchable balls last year, regardless of who was throwing to him. Place that with the fact that he has a hard time seperating from defenders, his inability to concentrate at key times during the games, and the fact he failed to record more than 91 yards in any game last year, isnt very good for a supposed #1 receiver. I dont see him matching even last years numbers. The fact is the Bears are a run first team and want to get Bradley, Clark, and Benson more involved in the offense. 61/680/5

I don't really gel with this set of points. You don't fluke your way to 16 TDs and 1400 yards receiving. He's got the ability, and the Bears just needs to harness it. The Bears know that they need a viable passing threat to advance in the playoffs, and they plan to expand that aspect of their offense. So Mushin should at least see modest improvement. He did drop some balls last year, but when a receiver has a broken hand, you can't rely on him to flapjacks much less catch speeding pigskins in cold air. Also, a couple of guys here have joked about the "chemestry" I saw emerging b/w Rex and Mushy late last season, but I'm sticking to my guns there. If you've ever been on a first date, at least one that went well, you know that chemestry can be a reality even when actual progress is a long way off. It may not get in the box score or in the record books, but I think Rex and Mush are in for an upgrade. In other words, they're prancing their way to second base

 

[Sweetness_34]

Receptions analysis:

# of receptions/targets (% caught) for Moose the last 4 years:

63/106 (59%)

54/100 (54%)

93/159 (58%)

64/136 (47%) (in 15 games since he sat out a game against Minnesota)

3 years before last year, he has always had >54% passes caught. Last year was an anomaly with 47% because:

a) Broken hand

b) Rookie Qb with who he had no preseason or training camp rapport resulting in bad passes (closer to defenders, sailing over him etc)

c) Inaccurate Qb

Also, expect the # of targets to go up this year since, with Rex and Brian, the Bears will use their passing game more.

Hence, assuming ~10 more targets than last year, and assuming 55% passes caught, my projection is:

80 (catches)/145 (targets) (~55% passes caught)

Yardage analysis:

# of receptions/yardage (YPC) the last 4 years for Moose:

63/823 (13 YPC)

54/837 (15.5 YPC)

93/1405 (15.1 YPC)

64/750 (11.71 YPC)

Again, you see that his YPC went down (just like % passes caught) last year vs his previous 3 years. With a steady QB situation now, I expect him to go back to at least 14 YPC, which for 80 receptions (see analysis above) puts him at:

80 catches for 1120 yards

TD analysis:

TDs are difficult to predict so I am not gonna do any kind of analysis, but he will be the #1 target in the redzone for TDs.....that is for sure. So I am putting him down for a ceiling of 8 TDs/floor of 6 Tds or a target of 7 TDs

80 catches/1120 yards/7 TDs is my final projection for Moose (and I hope I can snag him as my #3 WR in every league)

 

[sholditch]

Moose's strength is his value, not total production. Anyone who is depending on him as a WR1 or WR2 will be very disapointed. People who are able to snag him as their WR3 will be happy, especially if they take him 8th round or above. I don't quite share the optimism of others, but I would be surprised if he did nearly as bad as last year with the vast improvement at QB Greise represents (meaning the passing game won't grind to a halt if/when Grossman gets hurt).

06 Projection

73/950/7 TDs

great numbers for a WR3 available late.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

I expect the Bears to throw the ball around a bit more this year, so I have a more bullish outlook on Moose then some of the others.

72 Rec

925 yards

8 TDs

 

[Sweetness_34]

I expect the Bears to throw the ball around a bit more this year, so I have a more bullish outlook on Moose then some of the others.

72 Rec

925 yards

8 TDs

 

[FreeBaGeL]

When watching the Bears it is very apparent that Grossman heavily favors throwing to Muhsin, and often it is quite a ways downfield. With them hooking up on a few of those passes along with Muhsin getting more looks and better looks all season with Grossman in there I think we could see a fair improvement on last year.

78 rec

1000 yds

7 TDs

 

[brobe4]

70 rec 770 yds 6 tds

 

[PsychoMan]

72/825/7

 

[coachjim]

Receptions analysis:

# of receptions/targets (% caught) for Moose the last 4 years:

63/106 (59%)

54/100 (54%)

93/159 (58%)

64/136 (47%) (in 15 games since he sat out a game against Minnesota)

3 years before last year, he has always had >54% passes caught. Last year was an anomaly with 47% because:

a) Broken hand

b) Rookie Qb with who he had no preseason or training camp rapport resulting in bad passes (closer to defenders, sailing over him etc)

c) Inaccurate Qb

Also, expect the # of targets to go up this year since, with Rex and Brian, the Bears will use their passing game more.

Hence, assuming ~10 more targets than last year, and assuming 55% passes caught, my projection is:

80 (catches)/145 (targets) (~55% passes caught)

Yardage analysis:

# of receptions/yardage (YPC) the last 4 years for Moose:

63/823 (13 YPC)

54/837 (15.5 YPC)

93/1405 (15.1 YPC)

64/750 (11.71 YPC)

Again, you see that his YPC went down (just like % passes caught) last year vs his previous 3 years. With a steady QB situation now, I expect him to go back to at least 14 YPC, which for 80 receptions (see analysis above) puts him at:

80 catches for 1120 yards

TD analysis:

TDs are difficult to predict so I am not gonna do any kind of analysis, but he will be the #1 target in the redzone for TDs.....that is for sure. So I am putting him down for a ceiling of 8 TDs/floor of 6 Tds or a target of 7 TDs

80 catches/1120 yards/7 TDs is my final projection for Moose (and I hope I can snag him as my #3 WR in every league)

One of the best explanations for a prediction that I have seen. Sweetness 34 you have put some thought behind your estimates and I agree 100%

 

[Musesboy]

Muhsin Muhammad was in a terrible situation last year. He had finished as the top fantasy receiver the previous season and was traded to the Bears. Not only was he learning a new offense, but so were his inexperienced QBs. With Rex Grossman sidelined before the start of the season, Kyle Orton started 15 games. He did reasonably well for a rookie, but the entire passing offense was badly hit.

The Bears also proved to have a strong running game and an excellent defense, so Orton was not asked to throw too often. Grossman returned briefly at the end of the season. Muhammad caught almost as many passes as the remainder of the WR corps, but it was not enough to give him much fantasy value.

Brian Griese has been added and will provide a much better option if Grossman gets hurt again this year. Griese is still only 31 years old, and he boasts a 63.1% completion rate and a respectable TD:INT ratio.

I still expect the Bears to lean on their running game and defense to grind out results, but it is not unreasonable to expect a healthy Grossman or Griese to improve the passing game considerably. Muhammad is the only viable target and should get a good percentage of the production.

Muhammad only caught 47.1% of his targets last year due to the poor QB play. In his last three years with the Panthers, he reeled in 57.5%. He could do significantly better this year even if he is targeted less often.

Prediction

75 receptions 975 yards 7 TDs

 

[renesauz]

Muhsin Muhammad was in a terrible situation last year. He had finished as the top fantasy receiver the previous season and was traded to the Bears. Not only was he learning a new offense, but so were his inexperienced QBs. With Rex Grossman sidelined before the start of the season, Kyle Orton started 15 games. He did reasonably well for a rookie, but the entire passing offense was badly hit.

The Bears also proved to have a strong running game and an excellent defense, so Orton was not asked to throw too often. Grossman returned briefly at the end of the season. Muhammad caught almost as many passes as the remainder of the WR corps, but it was not enough to give him much fantasy value.

Brian Griese has been added and will provide a much better option if Grossman gets hurt again this year. Griese is still only 31 years old, and he boasts a 63.1% completion rate and a respectable TD:INT ratio.

I still expect the Bears to lean on their running game and defense to grind out results, but it is not unreasonable to expect a healthy Grossman or Griese to improve the passing game considerably. Muhammad is the only viable target and should get a good percentage of the production.

Muhammad only caught 47.1% of his targets last year due to the poor QB play. In his last three years with the Panthers, he reeled in 57.5%. He could do significantly better this year even if he is targeted less often.

Prediction

75 receptions 975 yards 7 TDs

Right about where I put him, except that I think he'll struggle for TD's.78, 950, 5 TD's.

 

[CalBear]

Last year, I gave Muhammad a ceiling of meeting Marty Booker's best numbers in Chicago. I don't think Muhammad is significantly more talented than Booker; his career season was notable, but not repeatable, and certainly not in Chicago's offense.

Chicago has finished in the bottom 10 in pass attempts in each of Lovie Smith's two years, and it doesn't seem likely that will change significantly. Muhammad has the advantage of having no other realistic receiving targets on the team, but if the team throws 418 passes with 5.27 yards per attempt, there's not much he can do.

If he's lucky, Griese will wind up starting; that might be enough to reach Booker's numbers. Failing that, he'll be lucky to reach 1000 yards.

75 receptions, 900 yards, 5 TDs. Good for approximately WR#28.

 

[CalBear]

Yardage analysis:

# of receptions/yardage (YPC) the last 4 years for Moose:

63/823 (13 YPC)

54/837 (15.5 YPC)

93/1405 (15.1 YPC)

64/750 (11.71 YPC)

Again, you see that his YPC went down (just like % passes caught) last year vs his previous 3 years. With a steady QB situation now, I expect him to go back to at least 14 YPC

Muhammad's career average is 13.2 ypc, and 90% of that was with better QBs than he has in Chicago. Projecting 14 ypc for him at age 33 in Chicago seems foolish.

 

[Rev]

Last year, I gave Muhammad a ceiling of meeting Marty Booker's best numbers in Chicago.  I don't think Muhammad is significantly more talented than Booker; his career season was notable, but not repeatable, and certainly not in Chicago's offense.

75 receptions, 900 yards, 5 TDs.  Good for approximately WR#28.

Once again, I took a bundy in 6 seconds flat. If I can repeat that, Mushy can repeat his career season!

 

[CalBear]

Once again, I took a bundy in 6 seconds flat. If I can repeat that, Mushy can repeat his career season!

Rex Grossman has completed just 53.8% of his passes, and thrown 4 TDs and 6 INTs in 195 attempts. That's not a guy who is about to produce a top-10 fantasy WR. To compare, Harrington has thrown one TD for every 30 attempts. Kyle Boller has thrown a TD every 31. Ken Dorsey has thrown one every 39.5. Kyle Orton has thrown one every 41. And Grossman? He has thrown one TD for every 48.5 pass attempts. You have to go all the way to Alex Smith to find someone else who has done so poorly.

Grossman may not be relevant, as he has never managed to play more than three games in a season. I suppose if Griese is at QB, Muhammad might put up acceptable numbers.

 

[sanders2021]

Being a Bears homer, I watched every one of Muhammad's games last year, and quite frankly I was not impressed. Granted, Kyle Orton was throwing to him, he had a broken hand, and he was on one of the worst offensive teams in the league. However, I was witness to several key drops, inconsistent route running, and a lack of intensity and desire to win. For these reasons, I find it hard to predict particularly outstanding numbers.

Muhammad is a very talented receiver that has had the unfortunate luck of being placed on one of the worst passing teams in the league. First of all, Rex Grossman is NOT the franchise quarterback that Bears management believes he is. Let's take a look at the numbers:

Lifetime completion %: 53.8

Lifetime TD/INT Ratio: 4/6

Lifetime QB Rating: 68.8

Games Played: 8

Grossman cannot be relied upon as a starter in the NFL and even if he remains injury-free this season, he still simply won't get the job done. This is not good news for Moose.

Fortunately, the Bears have Brian Griese. With a lifetime QB Rating of 84.8, a 63.1% Completion %, and a TD/INT ratio of 103/78, Griese brings much-needed experience and actual SKILL at the QB position. I think that if Griese lands the starting role, either in training camp or due to injury, that it will greatly benefit Moose.

The Bears are a team that is going to rely on stellar defense and a good running game to win games. Wide receivers in this system will not flourish, but can be decent WR2 or WR3's. I think that with an ADP of WR30, Muhammad represents some pretty good value. If everything gels in the Bears' offense this year, Moose could put up some decent stats.

Here are my projections:

Receptions: 75

Reception Yards: 800

Reception TD's: 7

 

[rzrback77]

I think that this season Muhsin Muhammad presents a solid potential draft value, especially if nothing significant occurs in the pre-season to improve folks' perspective on him and/or Chicago's passing offense.

Chicago is known as a ball control run first offense that heavily depends on their defense. Its been awhile since ANY Bear receiver put up numbers. Muhammad was playing in a new system last year and he had a broke hand. Dare I say that Orton as QB limited his potential.

But, they have better opportunities this season. If Grossman gets injured again or simply falters, the Bears have Griese waiting in the wings, a significant improvement over Orton. Their other WR options are gaining experience and Clayton should return, along with the outstanding running game may limit double teams.

I think Muhammad improves slightly and possibly more. With his ADP currently at WR30, 91st overall, and likely to stay that low, he could be an awesome WR3 this season.

80 catches for 1070 yards and 8 TDs.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

People forget that Muhammad is only a single season removed from one of the best fantasy seasons EVER for a wide reciever. That performance seems like a distant memory since he was traded to the sputtering Bears offense, and since he struggled last year with both a rookie quarterback and a broken hand. However, when Rex came back late last season, the chemestry between he and Muhammad was unmistakeable. Thus, if Rex can stay healthy and continue to improve, the passing game has a terrific opportunity to gain traction upon the path that the Bear's stellar defense and running game will blaze. If and when that happens, Muhammad should be the primary beneficiary:

84/1150/9

Unmistakable chemistry? you mean 3-40 and 5-58-1? The Bears offense is what is and I don't see it changing much at all. They will try to win with defense and grinding the ball down your throat with the running game. Generally teams that can win with defense and running the ball don't change unless they have to and it doesn't look like they will have to change. I'd be surprised if he got over 1,000 receiving. 75-850-5

I agree with Banger. The Bears O is what it is. They're to manage the field position and not lose the game. They don't have enough talent to be anything else right now. The D and running game will dictate where this team goes and since neither of those has changed much, you can expect the same. This means that MM will be far removed from his monster year in Carolina. There is no second WR to take the heat off of MM and the QB play is suspect at best. He has a modest floor and low ceiling and he has other receivers in the same tier or lower (Matt Jones, Kennison) that have better upside IMHO. Most won't be overpaying for him based on last year's numbers, but his low upside is enough for me to steer clear.70 receptions, 820 yards, 5 TD's

 

[sholditch]

Being a Bears homer, I watched every one of Muhammad's games last year, and quite frankly I was not impressed. Granted, Kyle Orton was throwing to him, he had a broken hand, and he was on one of the worst offensive teams in the league. However, I was witness to several key drops, inconsistent route running, and a lack of intensity and desire to win. For these reasons, I find it hard to predict particularly outstanding numbers.

Muhammad is a very talented receiver that has had the unfortunate luck of being placed on one of the worst passing teams in the league. First of all, Rex Grossman is NOT the franchise quarterback that Bears management believes he is. Let's take a look at the numbers:

Lifetime completion %: 53.8

Lifetime TD/INT Ratio: 4/6

Lifetime QB Rating: 68.8

Games Played: 8

Grossman cannot be relied upon as a starter in the NFL and even if he remains injury-free this season, he still simply won't get the job done. This is not good news for Moose.

Fortunately, the Bears have Brian Griese. With a lifetime QB Rating of 84.8, a 63.1% Completion %, and a TD/INT ratio of 103/78, Griese brings much-needed experience and actual SKILL at the QB position. I think that if Griese lands the starting role, either in training camp or due to injury, that it will greatly benefit Moose.

The Bears are a team that is going to rely on stellar defense and a good running game to win games. Wide receivers in this system will not flourish, but can be decent WR2 or WR3's. I think that with an ADP of WR30, Muhammad represents some pretty good value. If everything gels in the Bears' offense this year, Moose could put up some decent stats.

Here are my projections:

Receptions: 75

Reception Yards: 800

Reception TD's: 7

From one Bears homer to another, did you not think that it was fairly obvious what the offense was going to do on every play? I think most opposing D's knew our first two plays were runs, and if thos didn't get us within 7 yards, it was a pass to Muhammed. TO would have trouble catching passes in that scenario. I'm not saying that the offense will be vastly changed, but I have to say that Grossman looked like he was starting to get it in that playoff game:11 passing first downs (vs 6 rushing)

17 for 41 (terrible) but did have 197-1-1, and distributed the ball a lot more evenly: Berrian with 5 for 68, MM with 3 for 58, Jones with 3 for 30

Not great numbers by any stretch, but in the end it was Grossman keeping them in the game. I'm still pessimistic, no doubt, but I think a modest improvement in Moose's #s isn't too much to hope for, and I wouldn't be completely shocked to see him top 1,000 yards.

 

[Spartans Rule]

Receptions analysis:

# of receptions/targets (% caught) for Moose the last 4 years:

63/106 (59%)

54/100 (54%)

93/159 (58%)

64/136 (47%) (in 15 games since he sat out a game against Minnesota)

3 years before last year, he has always had >54% passes caught. Last year was an anomaly with 47% because:

a) Broken hand

b) Rookie Qb with who he had no preseason or training camp rapport resulting in bad passes (closer to defenders, sailing over him etc)

c) Inaccurate Qb

Also, expect the # of targets to go up this year since, with Rex and Brian, the Bears will use their passing game more.

Hence, assuming ~10 more targets than last year, and assuming 55% passes caught, my projection is:

80 (catches)/145 (targets) (~55% passes caught)

Yardage analysis:

# of receptions/yardage (YPC) the last 4 years for Moose:

63/823 (13 YPC)

54/837 (15.5 YPC)

93/1405 (15.1 YPC)

64/750 (11.71 YPC)

Again, you see that his YPC went down (just like % passes caught) last year vs his previous 3 years. With a steady QB situation now, I expect him to go back to at least 14 YPC, which for 80 receptions (see analysis above) puts him at:

80 catches for 1120 yards

TD analysis:

TDs are difficult to predict so I am not gonna do any kind of analysis, but he will be the #1 target in the redzone for TDs.....that is for sure. So I am putting him down for a ceiling of 8 TDs/floor of 6 Tds or a target of 7 TDs

80 catches/1120 yards/7 TDs is my final projection for Moose (and I hope I can snag him as my #3 WR in every league)

You're essentially projecting everything to return to how it was in Carolina. Those days are gone. Delhomme >>> Grossman/Griese, Muhammad gets more attention from defenses now, the Bears don't throw as much, he's a couple years older, and so forth. Moose may be better than last season, but last season's numbers much more closely approximate his present situation than what he did in Carolina.

 

[Spartans Rule]

I have Muhammad down for 69/863/5

 

[BoulderBob]

Grossman and Moose are pretty good friends, with Grossman serving as a groomsman in Moose's wedding last summer. Rex also seemed to target Moose with a high percentage of his passes when he was in the lineup. There is definite chemistry between them. Check out this video of every Grossman pass from last season:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LyDBmHsPVQ4&search=grossman

Moose:

75/1100/10

Grossman has a damn good deep ball, which will help Moose. This guy is a sleeper who sharks will snag in the later rounds. Pass him up, and you will probably regret it. Orton screwed Moose's stats last season, as he had no accuracy on any pass beyond 5 yards.

 

[Rev]

You're essentially projecting everything to return to how it was in Carolina. Those days are gone. Delhomme >>> Grossman/Griese, Muhammad gets more attention from defenses now, the Bears don't throw as much, he's a couple years older, and so forth. Moose may be better than last season, but last season's numbers much more closely approximate his present situation than what he did in Carolina.

Wrongo. Muhammad had his best season when he was the only receiver for the Panthers, despite double and often triple teams. He'll see no more concentrated defensive coverage in Chicago, especially since the Bears have a better running game than Carolina did that year. He was truly amazing to watch 2 seasons ago, and yes, I realize I'm saying that about Mushin Muhammad. I'd love to see him get going with Rex at the helm and return to form, cuz he could easily be the buy low of the season.

 

[mlball77]

I really believe that CHI's passing game will be better than it has been the past couple of years, but that really isn't saying too much. Why will it be better? Simply put, better QB play. If Grossman finally stays healthy, the QB play will have improved markedly, imo. If he sustains another major injury, Griese comes in and the Bears still get better QB play than they have in recent years. Either way, the passing game is likely to be more productive.

The question at hand, will an improved passing game boost Muhammad's numbers significantly? If Griese is behind center, I think the asnwer is clearly yes... but if Grossman gets most of the snaps this year, I think the improvement will only be minor. I say this because I think Rex will be throwing deeper more frequently... and will target Bradley and Berrian a bit more than Griese would.

My projection for Muhammad:

Recs: 70

Rec Yds: 860

Rec TDs: 6

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

75 receptions 975 yards 7 TDs

Actual

60 receptions 863 yards 5 TDs

I was close on this one, but others were closer. Grossman's inconsistency kept Muhummad from meeting my expectations. CalBear and Banger got very close, but Spartans Rule predicted 863/5

Muhsin Muhammad was in a terrible situation last year. He had finished as the top fantasy receiver the previous season and was traded to the Bears. Not only was he learning a new offense, but so were his inexperienced QBs. With Rex Grossman sidelined before the start of the season, Kyle Orton started 15 games. He did reasonably well for a rookie, but the entire passing offense was badly hit.

The Bears also proved to have a strong running game and an excellent defense, so Orton was not asked to throw too often. Grossman returned briefly at the end of the season. Muhammad caught almost as many passes as the remainder of the WR corps, but it was not enough to give him much fantasy value.

Brian Griese has been added and will provide a much better option if Grossman gets hurt again this year. Griese is still only 31 years old, and he boasts a 63.1% completion rate and a respectable TD:INT ratio.

I still expect the Bears to lean on their running game and defense to grind out results, but it is not unreasonable to expect a healthy Grossman or Griese to improve the passing game considerably. Muhammad is the only viable target and should get a good percentage of the production.

Muhammad only caught 47.1% of his targets last year due to the poor QB play. In his last three years with the Panthers, he reeled in 57.5%. He could do significantly better this year even if he is targeted less often.

Prediction

75 receptions 975 yards 7 TDs

 

[Rev]

I have Muhammad down for 69/863/5

Wow. You were dead on as far as yards and scores. Nice work! I'll have to watch your predictions as I prepare for next years draft!

 

[mlball77]

I really believe that CHI's passing game will be better than it has been the past couple of years, but that really isn't saying too much. Why will it be better? Simply put, better QB play. If Grossman finally stays healthy, the QB play will have improved markedly, imo. If he sustains another major injury, Griese comes in and the Bears still get better QB play than they have in recent years. Either way, the passing game is likely to be more productive. The question at hand, will an improved passing game boost Muhammad's numbers significantly? If Griese is behind center, I think the asnwer is clearly yes... but if Grossman gets most of the snaps this year, I think the improvement will only be minor. I say this because I think Rex will be throwing deeper more frequently... and will target Bradley and Berrian a bit more than Griese would. My projection for Muhammad:Recs: 70Rec Yds: 860Rec TDs: 6

My projection was pretty close on this one (a rarity for me), but my reasoning was very good, in hindsight.

 

[Banger]

People forget that Muhammad is only a single season removed from one of the best fantasy seasons EVER for a wide reciever.  That performance seems like a distant memory since he was traded to the sputtering Bears offense, and since he struggled last year with both a rookie quarterback and a broken hand.  However, when Rex came back late last season, the chemestry between he and Muhammad was unmistakeable.  Thus, if Rex can stay healthy and continue to improve, the passing game has a terrific opportunity to gain traction upon the path that the Bear's stellar defense and running game will blaze.  If and when that happens, Muhammad should be the primary beneficiary:

    84/1150/9

Unmistakable chemistry? you mean 3-40 and 5-58-1? The Bears offense is what is and I don't see it changing much at all. They will try to win with defense and grinding the ball down your throat with the running game. Generally teams that can win with defense and running the ball don't change unless they have to and it doesn't look like they will have to change. I'd be surprised if he got over 1,000 receiving. 75-850-5

Missed Gates by a yard and Mush by 13.

 

[Spartans Rule]

I have Muhammad down for 69/863/5

Wow. You were dead on as far as yards and scores. Nice work! I'll have to watch your predictions as I prepare for next years draft!

I wouldn't give myself too much credit - I was a ways off on the Bears passing game in general. Had less total passing for them, but a bigger % to Moose.

Still, it is pretty cool to hit like that. And on a Spartan, no less.