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Player Spotlight: Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks

Player Page Link: Percy Harvin Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Relative to price paid, will be one of the two most over drafted/bought players this year compared to the expectations of the player.

 

KCitons

Footballguy
Relative to price paid, will be one of the two most over drafted/bought players this year compared to the expectations of the player.
What about those in dynasty or contract leagues that already had Harvin on their roster? Have to believe his value has gone up.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Relative to price paid, will be one of the two most over drafted/bought players this year compared to the expectations of the player.
Care to expound?
He's a great player and obviously is valuable and great to have but based on how much I've seen posted here and there about what people seem to expect from him, I think he will cost more than he is worth.

It seems people are talking like its going to be him and Wilson on the field all day long; just take what he did in Miny, transfer that to Seattle, add 25% because we all love Wilson and *poof*...there you go.

I think Seattle is a lot better than Minny and that reduces the amount of times Seattle is playing catch-up or feels the need to rely on him. I think the philosophy of the team dictates other players having relatively larger roles and he won't be called upon as much. As a simple example, being very vanilla, granted, if Seattle is winning games comfortably in 4-6 games this year (seems reasonable), do they need Harvin to do all these things that make him PPR gold or do they let Turbin or even Michael run more? Do they play a bit more conservatively and let their defense do their thing? Isn't Sidney Rice and Golden Tate a factor more than Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright were? Very small things that I think accumulate enough to make the difference.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Relative to price paid, will be one of the two most over drafted/bought players this year compared to the expectations of the player.
What about those in dynasty or contract leagues that already had Harvin on their roster? Have to believe his value has gone up.
Agree there because you are the holder of the resource and the public (general) perception is that he is more valuable. So, yes, if I hold him in that type of league, I think he is more valuable than before but do not necessarily think that translates into more production in my score box.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
Relative to price paid, will be one of the two most over drafted/bought players this year compared to the expectations of the player.
Care to expound?
He's a great player and obviously is valuable and great to have but based on how much I've seen posted here and there about what people seem to expect from him, I think he will cost more than he is worth.

It seems people are talking like its going to be him and Wilson on the field all day long; just take what he did in Miny, transfer that to Seattle, add 25% because we all love Wilson and *poof*...there you go.

I think Seattle is a lot better than Minny and that reduces the amount of times Seattle is playing catch-up or feels the need to rely on him. I think the philosophy of the team dictates other players having relatively larger roles and he won't be called upon as much. As a simple example, being very vanilla, granted, if Seattle is winning games comfortably in 4-6 games this year (seems reasonable), do they need Harvin to do all these things that make him PPR gold or do they let Turbin or even Michael run more? Do they play a bit more conservatively and let their defense do their thing? Isn't Sidney Rice and Golden Tate a factor more than Jerome Simpson and Jarius Wright were? Very small things that I think accumulate enough to make the difference.
I couldn't agree more, Harvin is very overvalued.

-Seattle is a run based team, who has drafted a RB in the top 3 rounds in consecutive drafts. They're going to continue to run

-Rice/Tate are better competition than what he had in Minny

-Never had a 1000 yard season receiving

-He's been banged up

I don't put him in my top 5-7 WRs like some are predicting

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
I guess I'm not the only one who thinks Harvin's being wildly overdrafted this year, then.

Will Harvin lead the Seahawks in targets? Receptions? Receiving yards? Yes to all three. But look - Russell Wilson threw the ball 393 times last year. That's fewer than 25 attempts per game. Even if Carroll lengthens the play-calling leash quite a bit this season - and I think he will - he isn't suddenly going to turn into Matt Stafford or Tony Romo. Add to it that Sidney Rice is twice the receiver anyone on the Vikes have had on their roster, and that the Hawks' defense is about six times better than the Vikings', and I'm hard-pressed to think that Harvin will average more than about 9 targets a game in 2013.

Let's assume he catches them at the same (very high) 72% clip he did in '12, and even that with the underneath opened up a little more he averages a half-yard more than last year. It still adds up to a guy who isn't going to finish the year in the top 12, even in PPR. And that's before the injury risk - not that he's made of glass, but as a sub-6-foot guy who goes across the middle constantly, it'd be silly to consider 16 games a given.

Sorry, but I'm not taking him anywhere near his current ADP. If he falls into the late 4th or early 5th round between now and August, I might reconsider.

Projection: 14 GP, 87 rec, 998 yards, 5 TD; 35 rush, 178 yds, 1 TD

 
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Lott's Fingertip

Footballguy
I'm not sure where his current ADP is, but those numbers would have put Harvin at WR8ish in PPR (per game avg) last year.

Just to throw it out there, through 8 games last year he had 60 - 667 - 3... on pace for 120 - 1334 - 6, not including any rushing or special teams. That is 289 FPs in PPR... about 9 behind D.Thomas at WR5. Again, this is without rushing stats...

Just providing context, not saying to use these numbers as projections. I think the naysayers make reasonable points.

 
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SeanTaylor21

Footballguy
The whole argument around the Seahawks being a running team just misses me. AP averaged 288 carries per year with Harvin in town (plus the 4 games AP missed in 2011), so he certainly knows how to be the second fiddle in the offense.

One thing that strikes interest for me is trying to understand what having a good quarterback will do to his numbers. Certainly Russell Wilson will deliver the ball to Percy better but will it have the effect of big plays vs quantity. What I mean by that is simply that I watched Percy play and several times he would make a catch and should have scored/gained more yards, but he had to adjust to the throw. Thus opening the door for more receptions on that very drive. That really helped his PPR value, where I think he may become more of a 'big play' WR than what we're used to in the past.

I feel that his numbers will solely rely on how much Pete Carroll wants to get him the ball, because I honestly don't see the Hawks playing from behind in many games this year. For that reason, I can see Percy having anywhere from 60-80 receptions for 1000 yards and 6 TDs; with another 40 touches coming in the form of rushing attempts with 350 yards and 2 TDs.

Overall I don't think he'll produce in the WR4-7 range but he should be knocking on the door of the top 10 if he already isn't inside enjoying the fine dining.

 

Donnybrook

Footballguy
He should be drafted higher in leagues which give pionts for kick returners. If he remains healthy, he could end up leading the league in all purpose yardage.

 

tdmills

Footballguy
I'm not sure where his current ADP is, but those numbers would have put Harvin at WR8ish in PPR (per game avg) last year.Just to throw it out there, through 8 games last year he had 60 - 667 - 3... on pace for 120 - 1334 - 6, not including any rushing or special teams. That is 289 FPs in PPR... about 9 behind D.Thomas at WR5. Again, this is without rushing stats...Just providing context, not saying to use these numbers as projections. I think the naysayers make reasonable points.
If you expand out Danny Amendola's first 4 games(prior to the collarbone) to 16 = 123 - 1360 - 8

Aka, you just can't do that. Harvin has never consistently put up great numbers over a 16 game season, that should cause some concern. Now he enters a team that passed 78 times less than Minny last year and you have a formula for overvalued.

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
I guess I'm not the only one who thinks Harvin's being wildly overdrafted this year, then.

Will Harvin lead the Seahawks in targets? Receptions? Receiving yards? Yes to all three. But look - Russell Wilson threw the ball 393 times last year. That's fewer than 25 attempts per game. Even if Carroll lengthens the play-calling leash quite a bit this season - and I think he will - he isn't suddenly going to turn into Matt Stafford or Tony Romo. Add to it that Sidney Rice is twice the receiver anyone on the Vikes have had on their roster, and that the Hawks' defense is about six times better than the Vikings', and I'm hard-pressed to think that Harvin will average more than about 9 targets a game in 2013.

Let's assume he catches them at the same (very high) 72% clip he did in '12, and even that with the underneath opened up a little more he averages a half-yard more than last year. It still adds up to a guy who isn't going to finish the year in the top 12, even in PPR. And that's before the injury risk - not that he's made of glass, but as a sub-6-foot guy who goes across the middle constantly, it'd be silly to consider 16 games a given.

Sorry, but I'm not taking him anywhere near his current ADP. If he falls into the late 4th or early 5th round between now and August, I might reconsider.

Projection: 14 GP, 87 rec, 998 yards, 5 TD; 35 rush, 178 yds, 1 TD
Ponder only threw the ball 80 more times last year than Wilson, that is 5 per game more than Wilson and the Seahawks were on the right side of a lot more blow outs than the Vikings. So if you think they open up the offense a little more wouldn't you think Wilson averages at least 5 more attempts a week? So if Harvin stays healthy I see no reason why he can't duplicate the numbers he started with last year.

 

Mr. Irrelevant

IBL Representative
I'm not sure where his current ADP is, but those numbers would have put Harvin at WR8ish in PPR (per game avg) last year.Just to throw it out there, through 8 games last year he had 60 - 667 - 3... on pace for 120 - 1334 - 6, not including any rushing or special teams. That is 289 FPs in PPR... about 9 behind D.Thomas at WR5. Again, this is without rushing stats...Just providing context, not saying to use these numbers as projections. I think the naysayers make reasonable points.
So if you take what was far and away Harvin's best career first half ... from a team with fewer options and which threw more than his current one ... and project it out to a full 16 games ... he would have finished last year at WR5-6? Explain to me how all those conditionals combine to make him a good bet to draft this year at WR8.

I guess I'm not the only one who thinks Harvin's being wildly overdrafted this year, then.

Will Harvin lead the Seahawks in targets? Receptions? Receiving yards? Yes to all three. But look - Russell Wilson threw the ball 393 times last year. That's fewer than 25 attempts per game. Even if Carroll lengthens the play-calling leash quite a bit this season - and I think he will - he isn't suddenly going to turn into Matt Stafford or Tony Romo. Add to it that Sidney Rice is twice the receiver anyone on the Vikes have had on their roster, and that the Hawks' defense is about six times better than the Vikings', and I'm hard-pressed to think that Harvin will average more than about 9 targets a game in 2013.

Let's assume he catches them at the same (very high) 72% clip he did in '12, and even that with the underneath opened up a little more he averages a half-yard more than last year. It still adds up to a guy who isn't going to finish the year in the top 12, even in PPR. And that's before the injury risk - not that he's made of glass, but as a sub-6-foot guy who goes across the middle constantly, it'd be silly to consider 16 games a given.

Sorry, but I'm not taking him anywhere near his current ADP. If he falls into the late 4th or early 5th round between now and August, I might reconsider.

Projection: 14 GP, 87 rec, 998 yards, 5 TD; 35 rush, 178 yds, 1 TD
Ponder only threw the ball 80 more times last year than Wilson, that is 5 per game more than Wilson and the Seahawks were on the right side of a lot more blow outs than the Vikings. So if you think they open up the offense a little more wouldn't you think Wilson averages at least 5 more attempts a week? So if Harvin stays healthy I see no reason why he can't duplicate the numbers he started with last year.
That would be great if all 5 of those extra attempts each game were directed to Harvin. I don't see it happening. Rice is an excellent receiver in his own right, not just a one-trick deep threat pony. Tate and Baldwin are nothing special, but they're talented enough to be consistent parts of the game plan. And Lynch and Turbin can catch balls out of the backfield just as well as ADP and Gerhart could.

Harvin was far and away the best receiver Ponder had going, and he got 85 targets in 9 games - less than 10 per. With Seattle having a run-first philosophy and far better weapons at WR, you really think he's going to average more than that?

 

msudaisy26

Footballguy
I'm not sure where his current ADP is, but those numbers would have put Harvin at WR8ish in PPR (per game avg) last year.Just to throw it out there, through 8 games last year he had 60 - 667 - 3... on pace for 120 - 1334 - 6, not including any rushing or special teams. That is 289 FPs in PPR... about 9 behind D.Thomas at WR5. Again, this is without rushing stats...Just providing context, not saying to use these numbers as projections. I think the naysayers make reasonable points.
So if you take what was far and away Harvin's best career first half ... from a team with fewer options and which threw more than his current one ... and project it out to a full 16 games ... he would have finished last year at WR5-6? Explain to me how all those conditionals combine to make him a good bet to draft this year at WR8.

>

I guess I'm not the only one who thinks Harvin's being wildly overdrafted this year, then.

Will Harvin lead the Seahawks in targets? Receptions? Receiving yards? Yes to all three. But look - Russell Wilson threw the ball 393 times last year. That's fewer than 25 attempts per game. Even if Carroll lengthens the play-calling leash quite a bit this season - and I think he will - he isn't suddenly going to turn into Matt Stafford or Tony Romo. Add to it that Sidney Rice is twice the receiver anyone on the Vikes have had on their roster, and that the Hawks' defense is about six times better than the Vikings', and I'm hard-pressed to think that Harvin will average more than about 9 targets a game in 2013.

Let's assume he catches them at the same (very high) 72% clip he did in '12, and even that with the underneath opened up a little more he averages a half-yard more than last year. It still adds up to a guy who isn't going to finish the year in the top 12, even in PPR. And that's before the injury risk - not that he's made of glass, but as a sub-6-foot guy who goes across the middle constantly, it'd be silly to consider 16 games a given.

Sorry, but I'm not taking him anywhere near his current ADP. If he falls into the late 4th or early 5th round between now and August, I might reconsider.

Projection: 14 GP, 87 rec, 998 yards, 5 TD; 35 rush, 178 yds, 1 TD
Ponder only threw the ball 80 more times last year than Wilson, that is 5 per game more than Wilson and the Seahawks were on the right side of a lot more blow outs than the Vikings. So if you think they open up the offense a little more wouldn't you think Wilson averages at least 5 more attempts a week? So if Harvin stays healthy I see no reason why he can't duplicate the numbers he started with last year.
That would be great if all 5 of those extra attempts each game were directed to Harvin. I don't see it happening. Rice is an excellent receiver in his own right, not just a one-trick deep threat pony. Tate and Baldwin are nothing special, but they're talented enough to be consistent parts of the game plan. And Lynch and Turbin can catch balls out of the backfield just as well as ADP and Gerhart could.

Harvin was far and away the best receiver Ponder had going, and he got 85 targets in 9 games - less than 10 per. With Seattle having a run-first philosophy and far better weapons at WR, you really think he's going to average more than that?
I didn't say average more than that, I think he can duplicate the numbers he put up the last season and a half with the Vikings. The Vikings were one of the run first teams in the league too, and I question Rice's ability to stay healthy. There is no reason why he won't be a top 10 wide receiver this year barring injury to him or Wilson.

 

Coeur de Lion

Footballguy
The Seahawks are a smart well-run franchise and they certainly didn't trade for Harvin then give him $67 million to not run the offense through him. Russel Wilson was awesome last year -- waaaaaay better than Ponder will likely ever even dream of being. Harvin's targets-per-game might well dip a bit (but not a ton, the Vikes were a run 1st and 2nd team also) but his points per target should go up to offset this. I'm expecting a monster year, particularly in PPR. Harvin is a beast.

100 - 1250 - 8, 50 rushes - 300 - 2

Assuming full health of course.

 

Borden

Footballguy
Stop this talk about the Seahawks being more of a run first team then the Vikings. That's crazy talk. The Vikings passing game pretty much only exists to try and take pressure off of the run game.

I have a funny feeling that the Seahawks are going to try and get Harvin in the slot a lot more the we expect. I think both Seattle and St. Louis have seen an exploit in their division that they are going to try to attack this year. The inside/slot position. Don't get me wrong Seattle is going to pound the rock with Lynch and I think Harvin will spend a lot of time lining up on the outside but I'm thinking they'll move him inside a ton too. Also, a team doesn't give up a first round pick for a player unless they plan to use him. Harvin has been the guy that his team goes to keep a defense honest and a Wilson bootleg pass to Percy makes it really hard to cheat or overload the box.

All that being said, I think it's fair to say that the defenses in the the NFC West are much better then the defenses in the NFC North. It would only make sense that this will have a major impact on Harvin. We all know the biggest problem with drafting Harvin is his health.

I think the Seahawks try and use Harvin as a Wes Welker light;

105/1100/9 *if healthy

80/900/5 *with his usual minor injuries

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
I'm not sure where his current ADP is, but those numbers would have put Harvin at WR8ish in PPR (per game avg) last year.Just to throw it out there, through 8 games last year he had 60 - 667 - 3... on pace for 120 - 1334 - 6, not including any rushing or special teams. That is 289 FPs in PPR... about 9 behind D.Thomas at WR5. Again, this is without rushing stats...Just providing context, not saying to use these numbers as projections. I think the naysayers make reasonable points.
If you expand out Danny Amendola's first 4 games(prior to the collarbone) to 16 = 123 - 1360 - 8 Aka, you just can't do that. Harvin has never consistently put up great numbers over a 16 game season, that should cause some concern. Now he enters a team that passed 78 times less than Minny last year and you have a formula for overvalued.
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
 

fightingillini

Footballguy
Havin's talent is unquestioned, but you have to always worry about WRs that change teams, as well as his injury history. SEA still will be a run-first team with the offense going through Lynch, and you still have Sidney Rice on the other side. I see good but not great numbers from Harvin and I expect him to be overvalued in 2013. At an ADP of WR7, I would rather draft guys like Roddy White, Vincent Jackson, Larry Fitzgerald, Randall Cobb or Victor Cruz over Harvin. All these 5 WRs IMO have more upside and are less of an injury risk.

73 rec, 1000 yds, 6 TD

35 rush, 175 rush yds, 1 TD

 

King of the Jungle

Footballguy
The Hawks went out and got him. They will keep him happy by feeding him. If he stays healthy expect better numbers than when he was in Minny...the main reason is bigger plays. Wilson will be able to buy time and throw down the field, something that Ponder could not do.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
75/900/5 receiving20/140/1 rushing
Thats probably a good line to set.
Barring injury or Seattle's defense shutting out every opponent I think this should be considered his floor
I'm not sure where his current ADP is, but those numbers would have put Harvin at WR8ish in PPR (per game avg) last year.Just to throw it out there, through 8 games last year he had 60 - 667 - 3... on pace for 120 - 1334 - 6, not including any rushing or special teams. That is 289 FPs in PPR... about 9 behind D.Thomas at WR5. Again, this is without rushing stats...Just providing context, not saying to use these numbers as projections. I think the naysayers make reasonable points.
If you expand out Danny Amendola's first 4 games(prior to the collarbone) to 16 = 123 - 1360 - 8 Aka, you just can't do that. Harvin has never consistently put up great numbers over a 16 game season, that should cause some concern. Now he enters a team that passed 78 times less than Minny last year and you have a formula for overvalued.
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
:goodposting:Even if you count week 9 of last year (the game Harvin got hurt), he has 1492 yards and 11 TDs in his last 16 games, plus another kickoff return for a touchdown, and a second 100+ yard kickoff return where he got tackled at the goal line. Seattle just traded huge draft value and paid beaucoup bucks to keep him happy. They're going to use him.90/1170/8 receiving, 35/200/2 rushing, 1 kickoff return TD.
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
True, but unless Harvin catches a lot of short passes that are actually rushes because they are backward passes, does anyone really think Harvin will have close to 50 rushes this year? I don't. Sure, it's only 3+ a game, but it's 3+ every game, and with Lynch and Torbin already back there, and Wilson a threat to run, I don't see them using Harvin in the backfield that much.

If Harvin can stay healthy for a full 16 games, I see something like:

80/1,048/8

20/104/1

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
True, but unless Harvin catches a lot of short passes that are actually rushes because they are backward passes, does anyone really think Harvin will have close to 50 rushes this year? I don't. Sure, it's only 3+ a game, but it's 3+ every game, and with Lynch and Torbin already back there, and Wilson a threat to run, I don't see them using Harvin in the backfield that much. If Harvin can stay healthy for a full 16 games, I see something like: 80/1,048/820/104/1
What Harvin provides is different than what Lynch, Turbin, or Michaels provide. Harvin provides matchup flexibility. Seattle can show an empty backfield, force the other team to commit to dime, and then flex Harvin back to take advantage. Regardless of how many RBs they have, Seattle will certainly have a strong package of run plays for Harvin. You don't acquire a guy who at 24 already owns the most rushing yards by a WR in history if you don't plan on getting him some more.
 

donkshow

Footballguy
Harvin could definitely get to 50 rushes. They'll mask it with nobody in the backfield, run an endaround, etc.

 

Shutout

Footballguy
Such a polarizing topic with true extreme views that makes it interesting.

It seems that one camp is saying basically, "they paid a lot for a new car; they are going to drive it." That's a logical thought but I think the other side of that type of statement is being left out. Sometimes people buy really expensive cars and because they have so much invested in it, they want to get the most out of it when it matters the most. So they don't use it as a daily driver and risk mechanical breakdown. They drive it when its nice outside and to show it off at fairs, etc.

The tie in I am alluding to here is, In Minnesota, that was a team that had a couple of elite players on both sides of the ball and they basically just said "we will let our stars be stars and just do everything we can to compete with the Packers, Bears, and all the others." But Seattle is different. They are a true team that has a lot of young and upcoming good players. They don't have to overwork any one guy and their base philosophy doesn't seem to be throw it 45 times a game and run a lot of cutesie plays.

I am sure we will see the things we have come to expect from Harvin at times but nowhere on the scale we saw it in Minnesota. When you think about it, if you pay this much for Harvin, yes you want him to be a dynamic player on a contending team, but that doesn't mean you run him into the ground. Not when you have very capable runners (several of them) and you have a defense that suggest you likely aren't going to need to be throwing 40-50 times a game.

I think there will be a balance in how they use him that helps the team, not pitches a tent and advertises the Percy Harvin extravaganza. At the end of the day, the same team that wants a healthy Harvin being a difference making talent to win games in December and January as well as September and all points in between is the same team that has to answer the question of "So, why were you not using Lynch, Turbin, Michael, Ware, etc late in the 4th quarter when Harvin took that nasty hit on that direct snap to the backfield and you guys were up 27-6? What was the point? You had the game and you had other options? Wouldn't he be more useful fresher and healthier against the Niners next week?" That's a custom built scenario, for sure, but the samrt teams that are good and have the talent on the roster; that's how they think. That's why you see the Ravens and Texans and teams like that playing their quality backup guys and not overusing their stars sometimes.

As a Harvin owner, I want him on the Patriots and Saints and just keep the pedal to the floor but I don't think the Seahawks are that kind of team. I think they know they have something here and the difference in their entire season might be a healthy Harvin in December. So, for those types of reasons, I just don't see them blanketly using Harvin all the time in so many ways. He is part of a great team with a real chance to do something but the emphasis is team.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
[SIZE=10.5pt]Seattle's WR corps last season:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1 Rice[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR2 Tate[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR3 Baldwin[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR4+ Edwards, Obomanu, Kearse, Martin[/SIZE]



[SIZE=10.5pt]Look at how much stronger it is this season:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR1 Harvin[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR2 Rice[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR3 Tate[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]WR4 Harper[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]First off, just look at that WR corps last year, and you should be even more impressed with what Wilson accomplished, especially since he did not have a strong TE or strong receiving RB. Anyway, this is a huge overall upgrade at WR.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I am projecting Seattle for 450 pass attempts this season, up from 402 last season. (See the Russell Wilson spotlight for rationale on that.) Last season, Seattle targeted WRs on 59% of its pass attempts. IMO it is reasonable to expect that percentage to increase given the addition of Harvin and Harper. I will project 67% of pass attempts to go to WRs. That is 302 targets.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]I think this is a reasonable distribution of those 315 targets: 120 Harvin 90 Rice 70 Tate 22 Harper Last season, Harvin averaged 8.7 yards per target. This season, he will play with a better QB and with stronger complementary targets in the offense. That suggests that he will be in a position to gain more yards per target. I will project a modest increase to 9.0 ypt, which equates to 1080 yards.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Harvin's career catch percentage is 69.3%. On 120 targets, that suggests 83 receptions. But I think Seattle will probably use him on deeper routes than Minnesota did with Ponder, so I'll downgrade that to 75.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Harvin has caught 20 TDs on 404 career targets, so ~5% of his career targets have gone for TDs. As noted, he will now have a better QB and stronger targets around him for the defense to worry about, but he is also playing for a team that will rush for a high number of TDs. It may be a bit conservative to stick with that career percentage, but it feels appropriate here. So I'll project 6 receiving TDs.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]In his first two seasons, in Favre's offense, Harvin had just 33 rushing attempts total. Once Minnesota switched to Ponder at QB, they gave Harvin a lot more rushing attempts, with 51 in 2011 and 22 in just over 8 games last season. I'll settle in the middle and project 32 rushing attempts.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]For his career, Harvin has averaged 6.4 ypc. Last season was by far his lowest average, at 4.4 ypc. I think it is reasonably conservative to project 5.0 ypc. That means 160 rushing yards.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Harvin scored at least one rushing TD in each of the past three seasons, and I see no reason to project that to change. So I'll project one rushing TD.[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]That brings me to these totals:[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Receiving: 75/1080/6 (14.4 ypr)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]Rushing: 32/160/1 (5.0 ypc)[/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]That is 166 points in non-PPR and 241 points in PPR. That would have ranked him in the WR 13-15 range in both formats last season, at least based on my leagues. I'm not sure where his ADP is, but I suspect he will tend to be overdrafted for redraft purposes. I'm higher on him for dynasty, since I think it is inevitable that Seattle's passing attempts will rise year over year for the foreseeable future, so there will be more targets and thus more fantasy points in future seasons.[/SIZE]

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Adam Harstad said:
Ghost Rider said:
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
True, but unless Harvin catches a lot of short passes that are actually rushes because they are backward passes, does anyone really think Harvin will have close to 50 rushes this year? I don't. Sure, it's only 3+ a game, but it's 3+ every game, and with Lynch and Torbin already back there, and Wilson a threat to run, I don't see them using Harvin in the backfield that much. If Harvin can stay healthy for a full 16 games, I see something like: 80/1,048/820/104/1
What Harvin provides is different than what Lynch, Turbin, or Michaels provide. Harvin provides matchup flexibility. Seattle can show an empty backfield, force the other team to commit to dime, and then flex Harvin back to take advantage. Regardless of how many RBs they have, Seattle will certainly have a strong package of run plays for Harvin. You don't acquire a guy who at 24 already owns the most rushing yards by a WR in history if you don't plan on getting him some more.
Oh, I agree. I just think that projecting 50 rushes is a bit on the high side. I think there will be weeks where they will get 3-5 carries and then other weeks where he has maybe only 1, which is why around 30 or so if more of a safe guess. Plus, Seattle doesn't strike me as the type of team that will force feed any one player, and while Harvin is a great threat that they will utilize, his presence will open up the field for the other receivers, and Wilson seems like a very smart QB who will throw it to open man rather than forcing it to a covered Harvin all day.

My only concern with a guy like Harvin in drafts and auctions this year is that the owners who are high on him are REALLY high on him, so they will likely overpay for him (based on what I think his value should be), making it difficult for an owner like me, who is high on him but not necessarily sky high, to land him.

In a $200, 12-team, 18-players per team league, about how much are you figuring he should go for in auctions? I figure around low 30s, but I think nearly every league will have one or two who will be willing to pay close to 40 or even a bit more than that (depending on when he is put up and what the WR situation is at the time for owners who still have a lot of money to spend).

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Adam Harstad said:
Ghost Rider said:
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
True, but unless Harvin catches a lot of short passes that are actually rushes because they are backward passes, does anyone really think Harvin will have close to 50 rushes this year? I don't. Sure, it's only 3+ a game, but it's 3+ every game, and with Lynch and Torbin already back there, and Wilson a threat to run, I don't see them using Harvin in the backfield that much. If Harvin can stay healthy for a full 16 games, I see something like: 80/1,048/820/104/1
What Harvin provides is different than what Lynch, Turbin, or Michaels provide. Harvin provides matchup flexibility. Seattle can show an empty backfield, force the other team to commit to dime, and then flex Harvin back to take advantage. Regardless of how many RBs they have, Seattle will certainly have a strong package of run plays for Harvin. You don't acquire a guy who at 24 already owns the most rushing yards by a WR in history if you don't plan on getting him some more.
Oh, I agree. I just think that projecting 50 rushes is a bit on the high side. I think there will be weeks where they will get 3-5 carries and then other weeks where he has maybe only 1, which is why around 30 or so if more of a safe guess. Plus, Seattle doesn't strike me as the type of team that will force feed any one player, and while Harvin is a great threat that they will utilize, his presence will open up the field for the other receivers, and Wilson seems like a very smart QB who will throw it to open man rather than forcing it to a covered Harvin all day. My only concern with a guy like Harvin in drafts and auctions this year is that the owners who are high on him are REALLY high on him, so they will likely overpay for him (based on what I think his value should be), making it difficult for an owner like me, who is high on him but not necessarily sky high, to land him. In a $200, 12-team, 18-players per team league, about how much are you figuring he should go for in auctions? I figure around low 30s, but I think nearly every league will have one or two who will be willing to pay close to 40 or even a bit more than that (depending on when he is put up and what the WR situation is at the time for owners who still have a lot of money to spend).
I agree that 30 rushes is more around the sweet spot. I've personally got him down for 2 a game, which seems reasonable based on his history but not exorbitant based on Seattle's roster.I think you've got Harvin's number in auction. As one of those guys who is sky-high on him, I'd be looking more at the high 30s out of a $200 cap, and could be persuaded to go to to $40 depending on how the rest of the auction was going. I think you've got the situation pegged pretty well.The one point I want to make is that, while Wilson will throw to the open man, play design often dictates who is open. Screens are the most obvious example. Even outside of screens, if Seattle wants to get Harvin involved, they'll make sure he's the primary read, and he'll take care of the getting open part.
 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
While this is true, it's also true that the last 16 healthy games he played (games 9-16 in 2011 and games 1-8 in 2012), he put up awesome stats: 116/1300/9 receiving and 50/232/2 rushing. Those are elite numbers in any format.
True, but unless Harvin catches a lot of short passes that are actually rushes because they are backward passes, does anyone really think Harvin will have close to 50 rushes this year? I don't. Sure, it's only 3+ a game, but it's 3+ every game, and with Lynch and Torbin already back there, and Wilson a threat to run, I don't see them using Harvin in the backfield that much. If Harvin can stay healthy for a full 16 games, I see something like: 80/1,048/820/104/1
What Harvin provides is different than what Lynch, Turbin, or Michaels provide. Harvin provides matchup flexibility. Seattle can show an empty backfield, force the other team to commit to dime, and then flex Harvin back to take advantage. Regardless of how many RBs they have, Seattle will certainly have a strong package of run plays for Harvin. You don't acquire a guy who at 24 already owns the most rushing yards by a WR in history if you don't plan on getting him some more.
While I agree with this logic, the obvious counterpoint to this is that you don't trade away the farm and pay a king's ransom ($67M/6yr) for a WR and then subject him to the wear and tear of the running back position. I can't recall his injury history (I know a lot of missed games have come from non-contact issues) but he doesn't strike me as the most durable of players. Seattle would be wise to have something up their sleeve as you mention, but at the same time they should be cautious with their investment. I can't predict how they'll use him, but if it was me, I'd use him as a running back in less than half my games. This is a really good team. They won't need to resort to tricks to win most of their games.

That being said, I'll be the first to admit I'm splitting hairs here. I predict 100 yards, you predict 200. Meh.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On to my spotlight prediction/projection reasoning:

Last year, Seattle targeted their WRs a league low 237 times (resulting in 143 receptions). I don't doubt they'll open it up a little bit, although there likely won't be a need unless something catastrophic happens to their defense. Even if Lynch goes down, Turbin and Michael should fill in pretty well. I'm a big Lynch fan, but I was impressed with the way Turbin ran last year and I think Michael is possibly the most talented RB in this draft. All that is to say, I don't see a huge uptick in WR targets. 275 is the most I can anticipate (a 16% jump), which would correspond to maybe 170 receptions.

I know it is not popular, but I'm a believer in Sidney Rice's talent. The guy is still young and he looked pretty good last year - he just didn't see a lot of targets. I think he'll still command some targets this year. They aren't paying him like $9 million for nothing, right?

Last year, Rice got 81 targets, Tate got 67, and Baldwin got 50, with 39 scattered among the likes of Braylon Edwards and Obamanu.

Assuming everyone gets bumped down the totem pole and Harvin gets all the extra targets he will have 275-237+81 = 119 targets. If he catches 73% of them (his phenomenal rate the last two years), he'd have 87 receptions. I included that math just for fun, but I don't think this is a realistic scenario, so I am going to project 100 targets for Harvin, 80 for Rice, 50 for Tate, and 45 for the rest.

Bottom line: I like Harvin. I think he's a very interesting player. But this offense will either have to significantly change (towards the pass) or become very Harvin-centric. Right now I've got him getting over 22% of the team's targets (I predicted 448 attempts in the Wilson spotlight). I know Marshall got like 40% of Cutler's targets last year and Andre Johnson was around 30%, but I think Rice is a much better WR2 than either of those team's had.

100 targets x 73% = 73 rec x 12.5 ypr = 913 yds, 6 TD, 15 carries, 100 yds, 0 TD

If we bump him up to, what I consider an unrealistic 30% of 448, we'd get 134 targets which would translate to 98 receptions at a very high 73% catch rate. So it's not impossible for him to justify his WR7 pricetag, but I think the odds are against it.

 

TheGreatSpinks

Footballguy
He was far and away the WR1 prior to his injury last year. Through 8 1/2 games last year he had 62-677-3. I don't understand how some of thinking he'll catch 70 balls if he's healthy all season. I'm a full on believer of the new space game NFL, and the new WR that it has created. I view Harvin, Cobb, and soon enough, Tavon Austin as elite wr's.

The only WR I would for sure take over him is Calvin Johnson. I play in return yardage leagues, so he's 1B in terms of where I rate him.

103-1130-6

50 rushes 211 yards, 2 tds

 

TheDirtyWord

Footballguy
On the plus side of the equation, Harvin is coming from an offense that 1) struggled to move the ball through the air and 2) used a bellcow RB as the centerpiece of their offense but still was a prolifically productive player because of his versatility. He could carry the ball, he can beat you deep, he can get open close to the LOS because of his short area quickness. Some WR’s like AJ Green, Megatron and Julio Jones are dangerous because their physical size/speed combination is something defenses struggle to match up against. Harvin is dangerous because he can do just about anything you require other than pass the ball from a skill position sense.

His move to Seattle presents an incredibly attractive upside scenario.

  • Wilson showed that he can be a true franchise QB his rookie year…by far the best QB Harvin will have played with
  • Given the contract signed and the price paid to acquire Harvin, SEA will find a way to get Harvin the ball.
But the big question is…will the Seahawks try and get the ball to him as much as MIN did. Consider that 30% of all targets in the MIN passing game went to Harvin up until the time he got injured. That’s a pretty big percentage and one probably brought about because the Vikings had few other options in the passing game. In addition, because of Harvin’s ability to get open underneath defenses, his catch percentage was very high for a WR (72.9%). While the WR corps of Rice & Tate isn’t amongst the leagues best by any stretch, they do represent and upgrade from where Harvin came. And so, for as big as an acquisition as Harvin was for this offense, I wonder if SEA will need to lean on Harvin as much as MIN did.

Will Wilson have but 405 pass attempts again this year? Doubtful…he’s proven that he can handle a bigger load. But will he exceed 500 attempts? SEA was most successful when they ran the ball more than passed the ball; they averaged 22.6 PA’s in wins, 28.8 in losses. When Harvin got injured, MIN was averaging 31.6 PA’s/game. From a pure football perspective, I think Harvin will help make some of the other assets in the SEA more effective, but from a FF perspective, I could see Harvin’s numbers come down by a decent tick. He will still be productive, but I don't think he threatens Top 5 WR status.

Prediction: 88 Receptions, 1003 Receiving Yards, 6 TD’s; 44 rushes, 198 Rushing Yards, 1 TD.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
Percy is being judged unfairly here using math that isn't as educated as people like to think it is.

Wilson is a smart QB who will get Percy the ball in space. Last year Seattle did an amazing job of getting people wide open. Wilson has the touch to lob it over a defenders head to Percy instead of throwing it at his feet like Ponder did.

People are looking way too much at the past when projecting TD's for Harvin. Td's are not consistent. Look at everyone's favorite Calvin Johnson for more on that.

I expect a lot of misdirection from Seattle this year with read options Lynch, Wilson and Harvin and pick your poison.

Another thing people don't want to point out is the Vikings coach had Harvin on the bench for stretches that boarder on idiotic. This drove down his number of potential touches as they didn't view him as a real receiver just throwing him screens.

People who just use a fomula to plug and play and evaluate and have never watched a playerplay just rely on other opinions are in for a surprise.

90 1250 9tds

40 300 yards 3tds

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Percy is being judged unfairly here using math that isn't as educated as people like to think it is.

Wilson is a smart QB who will get Percy the ball in space. Last year Seattle did an amazing job of getting people wide open. Wilson has the touch to lob it over a defenders head to Percy instead of throwing it at his feet like Ponder did.

People are looking way too much at the past when projecting TD's for Harvin. Td's are not consistent. Look at everyone's favorite Calvin Johnson for more on that.

I expect a lot of misdirection from Seattle this year with read options Lynch, Wilson and Harvin and pick your poison.

Another thing people don't want to point out is the Vikings coach had Harvin on the bench for stretches that boarder on idiotic. This drove down his number of potential touches as they didn't view him as a real receiver just throwing him screens.

People who just use a fomula to plug and play and evaluate and have never watched a playerplay just rely on other opinions are in for a surprise.

90 1250 9tds

40 300 yards 3tds
How many targets do you project for Harvin? How many pass attempts do you project for the Seahawks?

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
Art Vandalay said:
Percy is being judged unfairly here using math that isn't as educated as people like to think it is.

Wilson is a smart QB who will get Percy the ball in space. Last year Seattle did an amazing job of getting people wide open. Wilson has the touch to lob it over a defenders head to Percy instead of throwing it at his feet like Ponder did.

People are looking way too much at the past when projecting TD's for Harvin. Td's are not consistent. Look at everyone's favorite Calvin Johnson for more on that.

I expect a lot of misdirection from Seattle this year with read options Lynch, Wilson and Harvin and pick your poison.

Another thing people don't want to point out is the Vikings coach had Harvin on the bench for stretches that boarder on idiotic. This drove down his number of potential touches as they didn't view him as a real receiver just throwing him screens.

People who just use a fomula to plug and play and evaluate and have never watched a playerplay just rely on other opinions are in for a surprise.

90 1250 9tds

40 300 yards 3tds
How many targets do you project for Harvin? How many pass attempts do you project for the Seahawks?
Could see him with around 10 targets a game, but like I said I don't put as much weight into the math as their are so many variables that can't be accounted for. The cream will rise to the top and tate is a poor smaller harvin do you not think they would rather go to Harvin with his targets? Is Rice staying healthy?

The only thing that limits his upside is that the 49ers,Rams and Cardinals wont be able to score point on the Seabirds.

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
Art Vandalay said:
Percy is being judged unfairly here using math that isn't as educated as people like to think it is.

Wilson is a smart QB who will get Percy the ball in space. Last year Seattle did an amazing job of getting people wide open. Wilson has the touch to lob it over a defenders head to Percy instead of throwing it at his feet like Ponder did.

People are looking way too much at the past when projecting TD's for Harvin. Td's are not consistent. Look at everyone's favorite Calvin Johnson for more on that.

I expect a lot of misdirection from Seattle this year with read options Lynch, Wilson and Harvin and pick your poison.

Another thing people don't want to point out is the Vikings coach had Harvin on the bench for stretches that boarder on idiotic. This drove down his number of potential touches as they didn't view him as a real receiver just throwing him screens.

People who just use a fomula to plug and play and evaluate and have never watched a playerplay just rely on other opinions are in for a surprise.

90 1250 9tds

40 300 yards 3tds
How many targets do you project for Harvin? How many pass attempts do you project for the Seahawks?
Could see him with around 10 targets a game, but like I said I don't put as much weight into the math as their are so many variables that can't be accounted for. The cream will rise to the top and tate is a poor smaller harvin do you not think they would rather go to Harvin with his targets? Is Rice staying healthy?

The only thing that limits his upside is that the 49ers,Rams and Cardinals wont be able to score point on the Seabirds.
I think Seattle will attempt around 450 passes. You are suggesting Harvin will get 160 targets, which would be 36%. That's not happening. And that's why I asked. You might want to consider thinking about "the math" a bit more.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
Art Vandalay said:
Percy is being judged unfairly here using math that isn't as educated as people like to think it is.

Wilson is a smart QB who will get Percy the ball in space. Last year Seattle did an amazing job of getting people wide open. Wilson has the touch to lob it over a defenders head to Percy instead of throwing it at his feet like Ponder did.

People are looking way too much at the past when projecting TD's for Harvin. Td's are not consistent. Look at everyone's favorite Calvin Johnson for more on that.

I expect a lot of misdirection from Seattle this year with read options Lynch, Wilson and Harvin and pick your poison.

Another thing people don't want to point out is the Vikings coach had Harvin on the bench for stretches that boarder on idiotic. This drove down his number of potential touches as they didn't view him as a real receiver just throwing him screens.

People who just use a fomula to plug and play and evaluate and have never watched a playerplay just rely on other opinions are in for a surprise.

90 1250 9tds

40 300 yards 3tds
How many targets do you project for Harvin? How many pass attempts do you project for the Seahawks?
Could see him with around 10 targets a game, but like I said I don't put as much weight into the math as their are so many variables that can't be accounted for. The cream will rise to the top and tate is a poor smaller harvin do you not think they would rather go to Harvin with his targets? Is Rice staying healthy?

The only thing that limits his upside is that the 49ers,Rams and Cardinals wont be able to score point on the Seabirds.
I think Seattle will attempt around 450 passes. You are suggesting Harvin will get 160 targets, which would be 36%. That's not happening. And that's why I asked. You might want to consider thinking about "the math" a bit more.
I don't need re-do my math, I think Harvin's catch rate will be high plus you don't think the reigns are going to be taken off him??

Here a look at attempts

11 Sam Bradford, QB STL 328 551 59.5 3,702 6.72 80 21 13 35 82.6 231 12 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 350 544 64.3 4,008 7.37 60 22 12 27 90.7 251 13 Eli Manning, QB NYG 321 536 59.9 3,948 7.37 80 26 15 19 87.2 247 14 Joe Flacco, QB BAL 317 531 59.7 3,817 7.19 61 22 10 35 87.7 239 15 Andy Dalton, QB CIN 329 528 62.3 3,669 6.95 59 27 16 46 87.4 229 16 Philip Rivers, QB SD 338 527 64.1 3,606 6.84 80 26 15 49 88.6 225 17 Brandon Weeden, QB CLE 297 517 57.4 3,385 6.55 71 14 17 28 72.6 226 18 Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB BUF 306 505 60.6 3,400 6.73 68 24 16 30 83.3 213 19 Cam Newton, QB CAR 280 485 57.7 3,869 7.98 82 19 12 36 86.2 242 20 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA 282 484 58.3 3,294 6.81 80 12 13 35 76.1 206 You think that Russell Wilson won't progress to throw more passes? You think that he cant be in this group of QB's?? Tavaris Jackson threw 450 times in 2011 (maybe do your research)

At the end of the year the Seahawks were dropping 50 bombs on teams and Wilson was pulled or the reigns taken in, that wont happen again.

He has better targets and is a mature pocket passer for more on Wilson

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013/5/6/4304096/russell-wilson-the-signature-nfl-throw

 

Just Win Baby

Footballguy
Just Win Baby said:
Art Vandalay said:
Percy is being judged unfairly here using math that isn't as educated as people like to think it is.

Wilson is a smart QB who will get Percy the ball in space. Last year Seattle did an amazing job of getting people wide open. Wilson has the touch to lob it over a defenders head to Percy instead of throwing it at his feet like Ponder did.

People are looking way too much at the past when projecting TD's for Harvin. Td's are not consistent. Look at everyone's favorite Calvin Johnson for more on that.

I expect a lot of misdirection from Seattle this year with read options Lynch, Wilson and Harvin and pick your poison.

Another thing people don't want to point out is the Vikings coach had Harvin on the bench for stretches that boarder on idiotic. This drove down his number of potential touches as they didn't view him as a real receiver just throwing him screens.

People who just use a fomula to plug and play and evaluate and have never watched a playerplay just rely on other opinions are in for a surprise.

90 1250 9tds

40 300 yards 3tds
How many targets do you project for Harvin? How many pass attempts do you project for the Seahawks?
Could see him with around 10 targets a game, but like I said I don't put as much weight into the math as their are so many variables that can't be accounted for. The cream will rise to the top and tate is a poor smaller harvin do you not think they would rather go to Harvin with his targets? Is Rice staying healthy?

The only thing that limits his upside is that the 49ers,Rams and Cardinals wont be able to score point on the Seabirds.
I think Seattle will attempt around 450 passes. You are suggesting Harvin will get 160 targets, which would be 36%. That's not happening. And that's why I asked. You might want to consider thinking about "the math" a bit more.
I don't need re-do my math, I think Harvin's catch rate will be high plus you don't think the reigns are going to be taken off him??

Here a look at attempts

11 Sam Bradford, QB STL 328 551 59.5 3,702 6.72 80 21 13 35 82.6 231 12 Matt Schaub, QB HOU 350 544 64.3 4,008 7.37 60 22 12 27 90.7 251 13 Eli Manning, QB NYG 321 536 59.9 3,948 7.37 80 26 15 19 87.2 247 14 Joe Flacco, QB BAL 317 531 59.7 3,817 7.19 61 22 10 35 87.7 239 15 Andy Dalton, QB CIN 329 528 62.3 3,669 6.95 59 27 16 46 87.4 229 16 Philip Rivers, QB SD 338 527 64.1 3,606 6.84 80 26 15 49 88.6 225 17 Brandon Weeden, QB CLE 297 517 57.4 3,385 6.55 71 14 17 28 72.6 226 18 Ryan Fitzpatrick, QB BUF 306 505 60.6 3,400 6.73 68 24 16 30 83.3 213 19 Cam Newton, QB CAR 280 485 57.7 3,869 7.98 82 19 12 36 86.2 242 20 Ryan Tannehill, QB MIA 282 484 58.3 3,294 6.81 80 12 13 35 76.1 206You think that Russell Wilson won't progress to throw more passes? You think that he cant be in this group of QB's?? Tavaris Jackson threw 450 times in 2011 (maybe do your research)

At the end of the year the Seahawks were dropping 50 bombs on teams and Wilson was pulled or the reigns taken in, that wont happen again.

He has better targets and is a mature pocket passer for more on Wilson

http://www.fieldgulls.com/2013/5/6/4304096/russell-wilson-the-signature-nfl-throw
The Seahawks attempted 402 passes last season. And they attempted fewer in the second half of the season than in the first half. By projecting 450 attempts, I'm already projecting an increase of more than 10%.

Unless the Seahawks running game or defense suffer significant injuries, there is no reason for the Seahawks to throw the ball a lot. They had an elite offense down the stretch last season, averaging 34 ppg in the last 8 games, with no less than 20 points in any game in that stretch. And they were 7-1 in those games. The only loss was a 1 pm EST start across the country at Miami.

Wilson attempted just 183 passes in that 8 game stretch, during which Seattle attempted the fewest passes in the NFL.

I've done plenty of research.

Hey, knock yourself out and draft Harvin at his ADP. I think you'll be disappointed. :shrug:

 

RBM

Footballguy
Can't project a full 16....I'll assume he "mans up" and gets 14 in. I do think his catches will go down but his yards per will go up a bit in a diff offense.

75/1040/7

25/115/0

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Time spent leading, tied, or trailingby CHASE STUART on MAY 12, 2013

in STATISTICS
Tom Brady thinks playing with the lead is fun.
Earlier this week, I posted the Game Scripts for each team this season and in each game. After spending the time to calculate the Game Scripts — i.e., the average margin of lead or deficit over the course of every game — it involved minimal extra effort to measure the percentage of time each team spent with the lead, tied, or trailing. So that’s what I’ve done for you today.1It’s not surprising to see the Patriots #1 in minutes spent with the lead: New England ranked first in Game Scripts score and in points differential. But the #2 team might surprise you. One reason the Vikings were so successful basing their offense around Adrian Peterson was because the team held the lead 59% of the time. You may recall the Vikings week 1 victory against the Jaguars, when Christian Ponder led Minnesota from behind to steal the win; that was an extreme outlier. In the team’s other nine victories, the Vikings held the lead for at least 45 minutes in each game. On the other hand, Minnesota led for less than 25 minutes in all seven of their losses.

The table below shows the percentage of the time each team spent leading, tied, or trailing. I’ve also included their respective ranks in each category.

Team Lead Tie Trail Lead Rk Tie Rk Trail RkNWE 7.7 65.2% 17.1% 17.7% 1 26 32MIN 2.9 58.7% 12.3% 29% 2 32 26DEN 4 57.1% 13.7% 29.3% 3 31 25SFO 3.6 54.8% 19.7% 25.5% 4 18 30SEA 5.5 54.4% 23.4% 22.2% 5 5 31SDG 2.3 52.9% 17.1% 29.9% 7 25 23HOU 2.7 51.9% 15.7% 32.4% 8 27 21CIN 3.5 53% 20% 26.9% 6 17 28BAL 1.9 51.9% 22.5% 25.6% 9 9 29ATL 3.6 50.8% 20.4% 28.8% 10 16 27GNB 3 50.1% 20.4% 29.4% 11 14 24CHI 3 49% 20.7% 30.3% 12 11 22CAR 1.3 47.3% 14.1% 38.6% 13 30 16WAS 1.9 44.8% 21.9% 33.4% 14 10 20NYG 1.9 44.3% 19.2% 36.5% 15 19 19TAM 0.1 42.2% 19% 38.7% 16 20 15IND -1.1 40.6% 18.8% 40.6% 17 21 14NOR 0.3 39.9% 17.8% 42.4% 18 24 13MIA -0.9 37.7% 24.9% 37.3% 19 3 18BUF -2.1 37.2% 14.8% 48% 20 29 12TEN -4.2 33.5% 15.4% 51.1% 21 28 8PIT 0.1 33.1% 29.5% 37.4% 22 2 17STL -2.3 31.4% 20.6% 48% 23 12 11CLE -1.9 30% 18.8% 51.2% 24 22 7ARI -4 26.6% 24.1% 49.2% 25 4 9DET -2.6 25.7% 20.4% 53.9% 26 15 5NYJ -3 24.1% 23% 53% 27 7 6JAX -4.5 23.2% 22.6% 54.2% 28 8 3PHI -5.3 22.7% 23.2% 54.1% 29 6 4DAL -3 22.1% 29.7% 48.3% 30 1 10OAK -6.7 14.5% 20.6% 64.9% 31 13 2KAN -7.3 10.9% 18.7% 70.4% 32 23 1 In January, I wrote about how Jamaal Charles had one of the most inconsistent seasons in running back history last year. I suspect part of his problems were due to the fact that Kansas City ranked 1st in time spent trailing and 32nd in time spent leading. The Chiefs had a positive Game Script score in just three games last year — against Pittsburgh, Carolina, and (surprisingly) at home against the Broncos. In each of those games, Charles hit the 100-yards mark on the ground. His two 225-yard games were also games where, relative to the average Kansas City game, the Chiefs were competitive. This is hardly groundbreaking news, but a better Chiefs team (including Eric Fisher) should make Charles a more consistently productive player this year, which is kind of crazy when you consider that he rushed for 1509 yards on a 2-14 team last year.

It’s easy to bag on Tony Romo, but Dallas was not a very good team last year. The Cowboys were 30th in time spent with the lead and spent 30% of their games tied, the highest rate in the league. Romo led five fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last year, and was a couple of inches away from pulling off a sixth. Dallas finished 8-8 last year but ranked 25th in Game Scripts. If not for some late-game Romo magic, the team could have had much worse year. And it’s not like Romo was the reason the Cowboys were generally trailing. The Cowboys finished in the bottom five in turnovers forced, 31st in rushing yards, 30th in yards per carry, 25th in Net Yards per Attempt allowed, and 27th in rushing yards per carry allowed. The passing offense was the only positive thing in Dallas last year.

http://www.footballperspective.com/time-spent-leading-tied-or-trailing/
Peoples projections for the rushing attempts for Harvin are too high.

 
Last edited by a moderator:

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Biabreakable said:
Time spent leading, tied, or trailingby CHASE STUART on MAY 12, 2013

in STATISTICS
Tom Brady thinks playing with the lead is fun.
Earlier this week, I posted the Game Scripts for each team this season and in each game. After spending the time to calculate the Game Scripts — i.e., the average margin of lead or deficit over the course of every game — it involved minimal extra effort to measure the percentage of time each team spent with the lead, tied, or trailing. So that’s what I’ve done for you today.1It’s not surprising to see the Patriots #1 in minutes spent with the lead: New England ranked first in Game Scripts score and in points differential. But the #2 team might surprise you. One reason the Vikings were so successful basing their offense around Adrian Peterson was because the team held the lead 59% of the time. You may recall the Vikings week 1 victory against the Jaguars, when Christian Ponder led Minnesota from behind to steal the win; that was an extreme outlier. In the team’s other nine victories, the Vikings held the lead for at least 45 minutes in each game. On the other hand, Minnesota led for less than 25 minutes in all seven of their losses.

The table below shows the percentage of the time each team spent leading, tied, or trailing. I’ve also included their respective ranks in each category.

Team Lead Tie Trail Lead Rk Tie Rk Trail RkNWE 7.7 65.2% 17.1% 17.7% 1 26 32MIN 2.9 58.7% 12.3% 29% 2 32 26DEN 4 57.1% 13.7% 29.3% 3 31 25SFO 3.6 54.8% 19.7% 25.5% 4 18 30SEA 5.5 54.4% 23.4% 22.2% 5 5 31SDG 2.3 52.9% 17.1% 29.9% 7 25 23HOU 2.7 51.9% 15.7% 32.4% 8 27 21CIN 3.5 53% 20% 26.9% 6 17 28BAL 1.9 51.9% 22.5% 25.6% 9 9 29ATL 3.6 50.8% 20.4% 28.8% 10 16 27GNB 3 50.1% 20.4% 29.4% 11 14 24CHI 3 49% 20.7% 30.3% 12 11 22CAR 1.3 47.3% 14.1% 38.6% 13 30 16WAS 1.9 44.8% 21.9% 33.4% 14 10 20NYG 1.9 44.3% 19.2% 36.5% 15 19 19TAM 0.1 42.2% 19% 38.7% 16 20 15IND -1.1 40.6% 18.8% 40.6% 17 21 14NOR 0.3 39.9% 17.8% 42.4% 18 24 13MIA -0.9 37.7% 24.9% 37.3% 19 3 18BUF -2.1 37.2% 14.8% 48% 20 29 12TEN -4.2 33.5% 15.4% 51.1% 21 28 8PIT 0.1 33.1% 29.5% 37.4% 22 2 17STL -2.3 31.4% 20.6% 48% 23 12 11CLE -1.9 30% 18.8% 51.2% 24 22 7ARI -4 26.6% 24.1% 49.2% 25 4 9DET -2.6 25.7% 20.4% 53.9% 26 15 5NYJ -3 24.1% 23% 53% 27 7 6JAX -4.5 23.2% 22.6% 54.2% 28 8 3PHI -5.3 22.7% 23.2% 54.1% 29 6 4DAL -3 22.1% 29.7% 48.3% 30 1 10OAK -6.7 14.5% 20.6% 64.9% 31 13 2KAN -7.3 10.9% 18.7% 70.4% 32 23 1 In January, I wrote about how Jamaal Charles had one of the most inconsistent seasons in running back history last year. I suspect part of his problems were due to the fact that Kansas City ranked 1st in time spent trailing and 32nd in time spent leading. The Chiefs had a positive Game Script score in just three games last year — against Pittsburgh, Carolina, and (surprisingly) at home against the Broncos. In each of those games, Charles hit the 100-yards mark on the ground. His two 225-yard games were also games where, relative to the average Kansas City game, the Chiefs were competitive. This is hardly groundbreaking news, but a better Chiefs team (including Eric Fisher) should make Charles a more consistently productive player this year, which is kind of crazy when you consider that he rushed for 1509 yards on a 2-14 team last year.

It’s easy to bag on Tony Romo, but Dallas was not a very good team last year. The Cowboys were 30th in time spent with the lead and spent 30% of their games tied, the highest rate in the league. Romo led five fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last year, and was a couple of inches away from pulling off a sixth. Dallas finished 8-8 last year but ranked 25th in Game Scripts. If not for some late-game Romo magic, the team could have had much worse year. And it’s not like Romo was the reason the Cowboys were generally trailing. The Cowboys finished in the bottom five in turnovers forced, 31st in rushing yards, 30th in yards per carry, 25th in Net Yards per Attempt allowed, and 27th in rushing yards per carry allowed. The passing offense was the only positive thing in Dallas last year.

http://www.footballperspective.com/time-spent-leading-tied-or-trailing/
Peoples projections for the rushing attempts for Harvin are too high.
Why? Won't Seattle be more likely to give Harvin carries when they're leading than they are when they're trailing?

 

Biabreakable

Footballguy
Biabreakable said:
Time spent leading, tied, or trailingby CHASE STUART on MAY 12, 2013

in STATISTICS
Tom Brady thinks playing with the lead is fun.
Earlier this week, I posted the Game Scripts for each team this season and in each game. After spending the time to calculate the Game Scripts — i.e., the average margin of lead or deficit over the course of every game — it involved minimal extra effort to measure the percentage of time each team spent with the lead, tied, or trailing. So that’s what I’ve done for you today.1It’s not surprising to see the Patriots #1 in minutes spent with the lead: New England ranked first in Game Scripts score and in points differential. But the #2 team might surprise you. One reason the Vikings were so successful basing their offense around Adrian Peterson was because the team held the lead 59% of the time. You may recall the Vikings week 1 victory against the Jaguars, when Christian Ponder led Minnesota from behind to steal the win; that was an extreme outlier. In the team’s other nine victories, the Vikings held the lead for at least 45 minutes in each game. On the other hand, Minnesota led for less than 25 minutes in all seven of their losses.

The table below shows the percentage of the time each team spent leading, tied, or trailing. I’ve also included their respective ranks in each category.

Team Lead Tie Trail Lead Rk Tie Rk Trail RkNWE 7.7 65.2% 17.1% 17.7% 1 26 32MIN 2.9 58.7% 12.3% 29% 2 32 26DEN 4 57.1% 13.7% 29.3% 3 31 25SFO 3.6 54.8% 19.7% 25.5% 4 18 30SEA 5.5 54.4% 23.4% 22.2% 5 5 31SDG 2.3 52.9% 17.1% 29.9% 7 25 23HOU 2.7 51.9% 15.7% 32.4% 8 27 21CIN 3.5 53% 20% 26.9% 6 17 28BAL 1.9 51.9% 22.5% 25.6% 9 9 29ATL 3.6 50.8% 20.4% 28.8% 10 16 27GNB 3 50.1% 20.4% 29.4% 11 14 24CHI 3 49% 20.7% 30.3% 12 11 22CAR 1.3 47.3% 14.1% 38.6% 13 30 16WAS 1.9 44.8% 21.9% 33.4% 14 10 20NYG 1.9 44.3% 19.2% 36.5% 15 19 19TAM 0.1 42.2% 19% 38.7% 16 20 15IND -1.1 40.6% 18.8% 40.6% 17 21 14NOR 0.3 39.9% 17.8% 42.4% 18 24 13MIA -0.9 37.7% 24.9% 37.3% 19 3 18BUF -2.1 37.2% 14.8% 48% 20 29 12TEN -4.2 33.5% 15.4% 51.1% 21 28 8PIT 0.1 33.1% 29.5% 37.4% 22 2 17STL -2.3 31.4% 20.6% 48% 23 12 11CLE -1.9 30% 18.8% 51.2% 24 22 7ARI -4 26.6% 24.1% 49.2% 25 4 9DET -2.6 25.7% 20.4% 53.9% 26 15 5NYJ -3 24.1% 23% 53% 27 7 6JAX -4.5 23.2% 22.6% 54.2% 28 8 3PHI -5.3 22.7% 23.2% 54.1% 29 6 4DAL -3 22.1% 29.7% 48.3% 30 1 10OAK -6.7 14.5% 20.6% 64.9% 31 13 2KAN -7.3 10.9% 18.7% 70.4% 32 23 1 In January, I wrote about how Jamaal Charles had one of the most inconsistent seasons in running back history last year. I suspect part of his problems were due to the fact that Kansas City ranked 1st in time spent trailing and 32nd in time spent leading. The Chiefs had a positive Game Script score in just three games last year — against Pittsburgh, Carolina, and (surprisingly) at home against the Broncos. In each of those games, Charles hit the 100-yards mark on the ground. His two 225-yard games were also games where, relative to the average Kansas City game, the Chiefs were competitive. This is hardly groundbreaking news, but a better Chiefs team (including Eric Fisher) should make Charles a more consistently productive player this year, which is kind of crazy when you consider that he rushed for 1509 yards on a 2-14 team last year.

It’s easy to bag on Tony Romo, but Dallas was not a very good team last year. The Cowboys were 30th in time spent with the lead and spent 30% of their games tied, the highest rate in the league. Romo led five fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives last year, and was a couple of inches away from pulling off a sixth. Dallas finished 8-8 last year but ranked 25th in Game Scripts. If not for some late-game Romo magic, the team could have had much worse year. And it’s not like Romo was the reason the Cowboys were generally trailing. The Cowboys finished in the bottom five in turnovers forced, 31st in rushing yards, 30th in yards per carry, 25th in Net Yards per Attempt allowed, and 27th in rushing yards per carry allowed. The passing offense was the only positive thing in Dallas last year.

http://www.footballperspective.com/time-spent-leading-tied-or-trailing/
Peoples projections for the rushing attempts for Harvin are too high.
Why? Won't Seattle be more likely to give Harvin carries when they're leading than they are when they're trailing?
No. I do not think it would be wise to run the ball with Harvin when the team has a lead. Especially not when Seattle has 4 other very capable RB who can be used in that role. Runs with Harvin will be called shots looking for big plays and to get the defense playing more honest, which helps the other runners when the defense has to commit to the possibility of Harvin running the ball. The decoy aspect of this is generally more useful than the run itself (not that Harvins ypc is bad).

I expect Harvin to perform similarly for Seattle as he did for the Vikings. If Harvin can stay healthy all season he could have a very good year. Just pointing out that the Vikings did have a lead longer than Seattle did last season. Several posters in here seemed to be talking about this as a positive for Harvin. That he will be playing for a team with a lead more often than he did with the Vikings. The Vikings did have a lead more than the Seahags did, so it is hard for me to see how this is going to add anything to Harvins productivity.

 

Adam Harstad

Moderator
Looking at his career numbers, Harvin has 42 carries while trailing, 36 while leading, and 28 while tied. We'd need to see the breakdown of how often Minnesota was leading vs. trailing for Harvin's career, but the difference seems pretty minimal either way.

Of course, Seattle is a completely different team and will have completely different tendencies. Still, from hearing Carroll talk about Harvin, I'm skeptical that Seattle will wind up limiting his usage much, if at all. If you're worried about overworking your offensive weapon, you don't stick him on special teams. If you're worried about keeping a guy fresh for the postseason, you don't tell him he's going to field every single kickoff return. These are actions you take if you recognize that the guy is a sublime talent and you want to use him as a weapon as often as possible, in as many ways as you can.

From the sound of it, you're mostly on the same page- you expect Seattle to use Harvin like Minnesota did. We're just disagreeing over whether Seattle's leads means a slight uptick in carries, a slight downtick in carries, or no expected change in carries.

 

Art Vandalay

Footballguy
Everyone here is over thinking this. Percy will get tons of short screens and touches. I don't think anyone can see him not getting 5-6 catches a game minimum he was over 7 catches a game last year so that saying with a better qb hes going to see the ball less. Also you have to think Seattle will have more red zone oppoutunities (they did last year: http://www.teamrankings.com/nfl/stat/red-zone-scoring-attempts-per-game).

So lets say they are in the redzone 10 more times a year and let's say they a bump from Ponder to Wilson is 2 tds worth.

that takes this usual 7 tds and makes them 9 tds, give him 5-6 catches a game for 90 balls on the year @ 12 per catch (low as he will probably stretch the field now that he has a qb that can go down field) That 1100 and 9 wr as his floor another 150-200 and 1-2 on the ground

 

Warrior

Footballguy
I disagree with most of you. He's undervalued.

Seattle doesn't throw that much, you say? They threw a lot more in the second half of the season when Wilson started to blossom.

Seattle is a run-first team, you say? Sure, but that was their obvious advantage early in the season last year. Wilson was a rookie and they didn't have any studs in the WR department.

They will be leading in most games and won't have to play catch up, you say? Ask Michael Crabtree 2012. Randy Moss when the Pats were going undefeated. Many teams still pile on the points with passing plays when they have the lead. Why didn't Seattle do that last season? Because they didn't have any elite weapons like Harvin, except for maybe their RB.

Mark my words. In 2013, Seattle will become less reliant on the running game. After Wilson started to bloom, they too the reins off in 2012. That will carry over, especially after going out and signing one of the best WR in the entire league.

People are totally ignoring the fact that Ponder was terrible and Adrian Peterson was the focal point of the offense for Minnesota. Take away a target or two from Harvin each game due to slightly less volume, better Seattle defense and less reliance on Percy. But add in more accurately placed passes, much less attention from defenses and a head coach that is creative and he won't miss a beat.

88 catches, 12 Y/C, 1056 yards and 7 TDs. I won't try to predict his rushing or return yards.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Seattle doesn't throw that much, you say? They threw a lot more in the second half of the season when Wilson started to blossom.
:wall:

How did this start? I've seen people say this so many times. I particularly love it when people say it with authority like this. Makes it even funnier that it is totally wrong.

Wilson threw the ball 210 times in the first 8 games and only 183 times in the last 8. Make this insanity stop now.

 

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