Player Spotlight: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Peyton Manning, QB, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Peyton Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
• FBG Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

 

[Evil G]

It may be a fairly common feeling that this will be Peyton's last year, or second last year. If Denver won the SB, he's done. If they somehow fail to make the playoffs, he's a risk to retire as well. Psychology would suppose that if they make the AFC championship and lose, it would be his strongest odds to return.

In Dynasty formats, he's high end trade bait to contenders, especially to those on the cusp, and this is likely where most of the interesting discussion rubs the road.

In ReDraft, he's about the 3rd-6th QB off the board, with a lot of guys waiting on him specifically depending on scoring, with a 3rd to 5th round pick.

I think he's a lock for 4000, 30 PaTDs as a floor. His ceiling is maybe 4800 and 40.

 

[Grahamburn]

My #1 redraft QB. An MVP season and HOF career culminating in a Super Bowl victory. Who can challenge this team in the AFC?

Hillman, Ball, and Moreno leads me to believe Peyton will be throwing to his plethora of targets for a slew of yards and TDs in 2013.

625 attempts. 425 completions. 7.8 yards per attempt. 4,875 yards. 40 TDs. 10 INTs.

 

[hauser42]

Manning is set up for a big season with the weapons he has around him.

I see 4,400 yards 41 TDs for him this season.

With Thomas pushing teams deep, Decker and Welker working short to medium routes will be very deadly trio for teams to defend. Manning should be better with another year away from neck issues and time with Thomas and Decker. Welker seems like a guy that will catch on right away and fit in well. Manning should right away have confidence to throw ball to all 3 WRs no matter what down or distance. He has never had this much offensive talent around him in his career.

 

[lord_helmet]

Elway for President.

 

[GibbyGarcia]

It's hard to write this but I don't think its even possible for me to be more high on the Peyton this year.
The only concern is the obvious one, a significant hit could end both his season and career. However, I don't feel thats all that unique and he proved last year that he was NFL ready.

I look at his throwing options and he just has to be giddy. A young star outside receiver in Thomas, one of the best possesion receivers of all time in Welker, Decker as a 3rd. Decent TE's and a young workhorse RB to create some space. He has better offensive weapons thand Rodgers or Brees. I've got him #1 and think we might be able to see something very special this year. I usually lowball projections, but not this one.

580 attempts. 400 completions. 8 yards per attempt. 4640 yards. 45 TDs. 7 INTs.

Edited after reading John Adams below and going back to look at his career stats. The strong D is a compelling argument. While I think he has a career year potentially coming, I'm dialing back yards and TD's a bit.

 

[johnadams]

The only thing that checks my enthusiasm on Peyton is DEN's really strong DST. I'm not sure that he's have the kinds of shootouts that provide the big 4800 yd, 40+ TD season. Keep in mind that his high in passing yards is 4700 (though he nearly hit that mark last year) and has only exceeded 40 TDs once. And, even though he finished with one of his best statistical seasons, he still fell outside of the top 5 QBs. I don't see Manning setting career highs across the board. I still see him as a top five QB for redraft purposes given that he's the third safest guy in my opinion as his floor is 4000 yds, 30 TDs, but I just don't see 4800 and 40 as anything more than a career setting upside.

4300 yds, 36 TDs, 14 INTs.

 

[Ghost Rider]

That is the concern with Manning this year, if they have those handful of games where they take the foot off the pedal, which could take 400-500 yards and a handful of TDs away from Manning and the WRs. I don't see a John Fox not running the ball a ton late in games they are winning by a lot. In other words, the Broncos won't pull a 2007 Patriots and throw, throw, throw for 60 minutes regardless of the score. But Peyton should still be good for 4,500+ passing yards and 35+ touchdown passes.

 

[TheDirtyWord]

The balls he threw didn’t always look pretty, but Manning was never greater than he was last season. Facing skepticism about his ability to even produce at an average NFL level given the 4 surgeries he had on his neck and the subsequent nerve difficulties he had with regard to his arm strength and throwing velocity, Manning grinded out an NFL MVP caliber season. One of the more amazing stats of Manning’s 2012 season was this. Out of Manning’s 583 pass attempts, only 1 travelled 40 yards plus (according to ESPN.com splits).

Now, with his perch as one of the best QB’s in the NFL firmly reclaimed and the acquisition of this eras best slot WR…what can he do for an encore? Probably not much more than he did last year statistically speaking. Manning threw for 4659 yards last season. He did so with via the 3rd most attempts of his career which also coincided with the 3rd highest YPA of his career (not to mention 2nd highest completion rate). To add, the seasons where Manning had more pass attempts than 2013 (2002, 2010), he finished with the 2nd & 3rd lowest YPA numbers of his career. What was remarkable about Manning’s 2012 was the methodically consistent nature of it. He exceeded 300 yards in a game 9 times, but he never exceeded 339 yards in any single game. He threw for 37 TD’s, but never more than 3 in a game. When you put up big numbers, sometimes those numbers are comprised of major spikes and anomalies (Matt Stafford’s 520 yard 2011 finale comes to mind). Manning though with the exception of the game against the Falcons never wavered off of consistent 300 yard/2-3 TD production.

Some folks are pointing to DEN’s defense starting to emerge as a major force as a reason Manning’s attempts might go down. But during the seasons 2nd half when DEN’s defense game up 14.25 PPG (versus 21.88 during the seasons first half), Manning compiled but one fewer pass attempt versus Games 1-8. And while I’m sure at no time during Manning’s career has he not had the trust of either John Elway or John Fox…Fox is as much of a ‘dance with the one who brought you’ coach as there is in the NFL. I can’t see Fox trying to limit Manning in any way shape or form no matter what status any of their games are in. And with perhaps the best WR weapons of his career, Manning should be able to confound defenses better than ever. But with a running game that seems to be well-rounded enough to provide a solid compliment to Manning’s aerial attack, can I see this offense putting the ball up significantly more than 583 times? Not really.

I guess what I’m saying is that I kind of see Manning maxed out to a certain extent but at the same time, perfectly capable of maxing out again. Can he get his YPA up to the 8.5 range? Sure. Could he get up to 40 TD’s? Maybe. The seasons though where his YPA was higher than last years 7.99 figure though, Manning averaged 475 pass attempts. A lot of QB’s are prolific – but Manning is efficiently prolific. He’s not the only one – Rodgers is also in this category although perhaps not as prolific as you might think.

With QB being deep though as it ever has been, drafting Manning in the 3rd – 4th round seems a bit like profit taking in the midst of a bull market run. It’s great to lock in, but you might miss out on future gains…defined in FF as a WR1 or RB2 that can be a big asset to your 2013 fortunes while hedging on getting commiserate production from a QB 3 rounds later.

Prediction: 398 Completions 571 Attempts 4771 Passing Yards 36 TD’s 13 INT’s

 

[FF Ninja]

Prediction: 398 Completions 571 Attempts 4771 Passing Yards 36 TD’s 13 INT’s

That's a lot of words to say you expect more of the same! I haven't posted in this thread yet because I just don't know how to predict how this new uptempo offense will affect his numbers. One thing I don't expect is a near replica of last year's stats (400 comp 583 att, 4667 yds 37 TD 11 INT)

From the FBG coaching changes article:

Gase believes that the best way to improve on the already-elite offense is through increasing the pace. Gase wants the Broncos to lead the league in plays per game, and that has shown in the Broncos practices throughout the preseason. If successful, it could transform a Top 5 offense into the league's best.

I suspect he cracks 600 attempts this year pretty easily. I get the reservations about the defense, but if you're practicing an uptempo offense then you don't just toss that out the window once you've got the lead.

 

[SaintsInDome2006]

FF is obvious, he's consistent and awesome.

Fun NFL facts:

He is 18-5 all time vs the AFCW.

In 20 postseason games Peyton Manning is 9-11, but has only one comeback win: 1/21/07 vs the Pats, but he gave up an early defensive score in that game putting them down 21-3. He is 5-11 outside of the 2006 run.

It seems to me the question is whether he gets past the first playoff game this year.

 

[moleculo]

I suspect he cracks 600 attempts this year pretty easily. I get the reservations about the defense, but if you're practicing an uptempo offense then you don't just toss that out the window once you've got the lead.

I think that's exactly what they will do. This team has been making moves to bolster the running game, even without McGahee. They brought in Alex Gibbs to tutor the young OL, they signed a top interior lineman in Vasquez, and they spend a high draft pick (2nd round) on a grinder RB.

As much chatter as there has been regarding the up-tempo offense, I've been hearing lots of focus on a 4:00 offense as well. This team is built to pass to score, run to win. It's gonna be fast paced, hurry up offense early on, to get up by a few scores and wear out the D. After that, they will grind it out on the ground as much as they can.

 

[Borden]

Prediction: 398 Completions 571 Attempts 4771 Passing Yards 36 TD’s 13 INT’s

That's a lot of words to say you expect more of the same! I haven't posted in this thread yet because I just don't know how to predict how this new uptempo offense will affect his numbers. One thing I don't expect is a near replica of last year's stats (400 comp 583 att, 4667 yds 37 TD 11 INT)

From the FBG coaching changes article:

Gase believes that the best way to improve on the already-elite offense is through increasing the pace. Gase wants the Broncos to lead the league in plays per game, and that has shown in the Broncos practices throughout the preseason. If successful, it could transform a Top 5 offense into the league's best.

I suspect he cracks 600 attempts this year pretty easily. I get the reservations about the defense, but if you're practicing an uptempo offense then you don't just toss that out the window once you've got the lead.

I think this might be a little misleading.

Increasing tempo for Peyton Manning likely just going no huddle and letting Manning read the defense. It likely won't be a Chip Kelly up tempo where there is lots of misdirection and quick snaps, high volume of plays. Why not let a Hall of Fame QB do what he does best?

Also, with quick snap plays it is easier for guys to miss assignments/blocks. When Manning calls his audibles, most blockers need a second or two to look around/call out/think about their new assignment.

I'm not saying that they don't run more plays but Peyton and his audibles take time. Gase might be honestly trying to run the league in plays during practice but on a team that plans on going deep into the playoffs I think they will turn it down during the season to avoid burning out their guys.

All that being said he has too many weapons not to put up great numbers.

Cut and Paste last years numbers I think:

400 comp 583 att, 4667 yds 37 TD 11 INT

 

[silentcoach]

4400 passing 40 tds and 12 interceptions

Does P.Manning's production decrease as it gets colder?

First half pace = 4824 yds and 40 tds

Second half pace (includes playoffs) = 4524 yds and 30 tds.

Hmm.

 

[Ghost Rider]

4400 passing 40 tds and 12 interceptions

Does P.Manning's production decrease as it gets colder?

First half pace = 4824 yds and 40 tds

Second half pace (includes playoffs) = 4524 yds and 30 tds.

Hmm.

I wouldn't read too much into that.

In their first eight games last year, the Broncos scored 235 points.

In their last eight games last year, the Broncos scored 246 points.

Manning's slight drop-off in TDs over the second half of the season was skewed by two games, Carolina and Baltimore, where defensive and/or special teams scores enabled them to take big leads, thereby taking possessions away from the Bronocs offense when the game was still close, and then the offense went into "kill the clock" mode for much of the second half of both of those games. Meanwhile, the Broncos' three losses were all early in the season, and in all three games, the Broncos offense poured on late in (futile) attempts to come back and win the games, almost coming back in all of them (losing by 6 to both Atlanta and Houston after being down 20, and losing to New England by 10 after being down 24).

 

[SWC]

he is the best qb ever to play the game and the wiener texter jon edwards ii filanderer from down under who broke the big wiskeys heart cannot even hold a candle to his jock strap take that right to the bank brohans i predict a big year full of yards and tds probably 4000 plus 35 tds bam right there bromigos

 

[Grigs Allmoon]

4400 passing 40 tds and 12 interceptions

Does P.Manning's production decrease as it gets colder?

First half pace = 4824 yds and 40 tds

Second half pace (includes playoffs) = 4524 yds and 30 tds.

Hmm.

I wouldn't read too much into that.

In their first eight games last year, the Broncos scored 235 points.

In their last eight games last year, the Broncos scored 246 points.

Manning's slight drop-off in TDs over the second half of the season was skewed by two games, Carolina and Baltimore, where defensive and/or special teams scores enabled them to take big leads, thereby taking possessions away from the Bronocs offense when the game was still close, and then the offense went into "kill the clock" mode for much of the second half of both of those games. Meanwhile, the Broncos' three losses were all early in the season, and in all three games, the Broncos offense poured on late in (futile) attempts to come back and win the games, almost coming back in all of them (losing by 6 to both Atlanta and Houston after being down 20, and losing to New England by 10 after being down 24).

Good analysis. This offense could be even more potent this year. You can't say for sure which RBs/WRs/TEs will be the ones to target, but I know Manning will be a good selection.

 

[Anarchy99]

Fun NFL facts:

He is 18-5 all time vs the AFCW.

Not sure where you got this. Manning against the AFCW:

Regular season, post season

DEN 6-2, 2-0

KCC 6-2, 2-0

OAK 5-2, 0-0

SDC 6-3, 0-2

SEA 1-1, 0-0

Regular season record: 24-10

Post season record: 4-2

Combined record: 26-12

 

[JAMES!]

Anyone else think Manning will outproduce Aaron Rodgers this season? I feel like he has every variable in his favor. Better schedule, better weapons, faster paced offense, worse defense. Lacy didn't run great last night but the Packers look like they want to be more balanced this season. Feels like Manning is sitting on a monster season. Another year removed from the neck surgery, something to prove after last year's loss to the ravens. With the Miller suspension, the injuries on defense, the Broncos are going to play in some high scoring affairs. Am I nuts for thinking he is going to finish the season as QB1 and should be drafted accordingly?

 

[Buffaloes]

Anyone else think Manning will outproduce Aaron Rodgers this season? I feel like he has every variable in his favor. Better schedule, better weapons, faster paced offense, worse defense. Lacy didn't run great last night but the Packers look like they want to be more balanced this season. Feels like Manning is sitting on a monster season. Another year removed from the neck surgery, something to prove after last year's loss to the ravens. With the Miller suspension, the injuries on defense, the Broncos are going to play in some high scoring affairs. Am I nuts for thinking he is going to finish the season as QB1 and should be drafted accordingly?

Miller's missing 6 games so the d will likely be just fine down the stretch. They've added DRC to Champ and Chris Harris as well. But to answer your question, I can absolutely see Manning finishing as the #1 QB. His arm looks so much stronger this TC and preseason and he's locked in w/ his WRs already

 

[JAMES!]

Anyone else think Manning will outproduce Aaron Rodgers this season? I feel like he has every variable in his favor. Better schedule, better weapons, faster paced offense, worse defense. Lacy didn't run great last night but the Packers look like they want to be more balanced this season. Feels like Manning is sitting on a monster season. Another year removed from the neck surgery, something to prove after last year's loss to the ravens. With the Miller suspension, the injuries on defense, the Broncos are going to play in some high scoring affairs. Am I nuts for thinking he is going to finish the season as QB1 and should be drafted accordingly?

Miller's missing 6 games so the d will likely be just fine down the stretch. They've added DRC to Champ and Chris Harris as well. But to answer your question, I can absolutely see Manning finishing as the #1 QB. His arm looks so much stronger this TC and preseason and he's locked in w/ his WRs already

Sorry, I meant worse than GB. I can see GB grinding out some games this season where as I don't see it as much with Denver. Hurry up offense with Manning walking up to the line looking to the sideline as he makes the throwing motion with his arm. Has his arm strength gotten much better? Anywhere close to what it was? Last preseason he was throwing 15-20 yard ducks and everybody thought he would struggle. Even with half an arm he finished top 5-6. Now he's stronger and they've added Welker? As a Rodgers owner last season he was frustrating early on and then had that 6td game about week 6 or 7. We all know Rodgers gets his but he did lose Jennings and his other top 2 are already banged up where as it feels like Manning is on the verge of something massive.

 

[JAMES!]

Anyone else think Manning will outproduce Aaron Rodgers this season? I feel like he has every variable in his favor. Better schedule, better weapons, faster paced offense, worse defense. Lacy didn't run great last night but the Packers look like they want to be more balanced this season. Feels like Manning is sitting on a monster season. Another year removed from the neck surgery, something to prove after last year's loss to the ravens. With the Miller suspension, the injuries on defense, the Broncos are going to play in some high scoring affairs. Am I nuts for thinking he is going to finish the season as QB1 and should be drafted accordingly?

Anyone else agree? 34 pass attempts in one half yesterday. I know it's the preseason but this guy is going to chuck it all day and has the weapons to put up his best season ever.

 

[TheFly06]

I think he's gonna finish as the number 1 QB in redraft. The running back situation looks cloudy, so even more reason for Manning to have bigger stats. Too many good options out there for him to throw to.

 

[(HULK)]

Fast start. Could break his own records.

 

[drake_ovo]

mvp. end of story

 

[Wonderllama]

I think Peyton will attempt to take back his TD record from Tom Brady. It is absolutely in play. If he averages 3 TDs a game from now on, he'll get it. Drafting Peyton in the third round seems like a steal at this point.

I'd consider offering Rodgers or Brees for Peyton straight up. Do it now! By the time Peyton decimates the Raiders in Week 3, it might be too late.

 

[BustedKnuckles]

I think Peyton will attempt to take back his TD record from Tom Brady. It is absolutely in play. If he averages 3 TDs a game from now on, he'll get it. Drafting Peyton in the third round seems like a steal at this point.

I'd consider offering Rodgers or Brees for Peyton straight up. Do it now! By the time Peyton decimates the Raiders in Week 3, it might be too late.

you really think anyone will trade Peyton QB for QB after THAT 7 td performance? Why would they? If they did you better be prepared to trade away another stud with him in a package

 

[FF Ninja]

I would love to see him break the TD record. With that running game, he just might be forced to do so.

 

[Buffaloes]

week 1's TDs

 

[chihawk]

For having such an incredible night, Is it just me or did a lot of his passes (even though they are completed) look pretty bad...wobbly and slow. A couple of times when I saw them in flight I expected a defender to get there instead. Maybe it was just the camera angles or something like that?

 

[Phlash]

For having such an incredible night, Is it just me or did a lot of his passes (even though they are completed) look pretty bad...wobbly and slow. A couple of times when I saw them in flight I expected a defender to get there instead. Maybe it was just the camera angles or something like that?

Peyton's never had the sexiest ball. But he always puts the right amount of touch on it and places it incredibly well. That's proven to be more useful to his receivers than a perfect spiral that they have to make a big adjustment for.

 

[Phantom Knight]

For having such an incredible night, Is it just me or did a lot of his passes (even though they are completed) look pretty bad...wobbly and slow. A couple of times when I saw them in flight I expected a defender to get there instead. Maybe it was just the camera angles or something like that?

I have to agree. As an owner, despite the 7 tds, I still find myself concerned.

 

[B-Deep]

For having such an incredible night, Is it just me or did a lot of his passes (even though they are completed) look pretty bad...wobbly and slow. A couple of times when I saw them in flight I expected a defender to get there instead. Maybe it was just the camera angles or something like that?

I have to agree. As an owner, despite the 7 tds, I still find myself concerned.

you should probably sell high

his value will never get higher than this!

 

[moleculo]

For having such an incredible night, Is it just me or did a lot of his passes (even though they are completed) look pretty bad...wobbly and slow. A couple of times when I saw them in flight I expected a defender to get there instead. Maybe it was just the camera angles or something like that?

I was thinking the opposite - his passes looked to me like they had considerable more zip than last year -especially in the 20+ yard range.