Player Spotlight: Peyton Manning (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Peyton Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[diesel7982]

Ill be the first to come in on the high side

4750 yards passing, 38 Passing TDs

40 yards rushing, 0 TDs

#1 fantasy QB by far, worth a first round pick, but probably an easy value in the 2nd round.

 

[Chase Stuart]

Ill be the first to come in on the high side

4750 yards passing, 38 Passing TDs

40 yards rushing, 0 TDs

#1 fantasy QB by far, worth a first round pick, but probably an easy value in the 2nd round.

Where do you see those yards going?

|----------WR---------||------TE-----||-------RB------|       1     2     3   Tot     1    2    Tot    1    2    Tot2004 25.6  23.5  22.8  72.4   8.9  6.5  16.2  10.2  0.8  11.52005 27.3  25.2  13.0  70.9  11.6  4.8  18.1   8.0  2.1  11.0

That's how Indy's passing yards were spread out the past two years. How do you see WR3/Stokley doing? What about RB1? Does Fletcher or one of the Bens become a solid TE2? And does Harrison remain the WR1?

 

[Musesboy]

Peyton Manning has finished in the top four since 1999 and was ninth in his rookie season. He failed to reach 4000 passing yards last season for the first time since that rookie year, but he only played a total of one quarter in the last two games. The Colts had wrapped up the number one seed by that time.

Manning doesn't take many sacks and has averaged just one per game over the last three seasons. He doesn't throw many interceptions either and he has three straight years with just 10 picks. He has also never missed a career start and has thrown at least 26 TD passes every year he has been in the league.

The big absence for the Colts this year will be Edgerrin James. The team will try to replace him with Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. The success of those two will have an effect on Manning. James was a good blocker and fully understood the system. James also finished fifth in rushing yards with 1506 and scored a total of 14 TDs. Rhodes did well when he started for the injured James in 2001, rushing for over 1100 yards in 10 starts, but he has only started one game since then. The Colts took Addai in the first round and it is unclear how the carries will be distributed between the two.

The two biggest questions are can the Colts establish an effective running game, and will the backs be able to protect Manning in the passing game? I am expecting the answers to be yes in both cases. But it does make me wonder whether the Colts will look to throw more in key situations. Manning seems more in command of his offense than any quarterback I have ever seen; at least during the regular season. It has only been two years since he set the record for passing TDs with 49. The Colts looked so efficient in posting 13 straight wins last year and were not often fully extended. I don't think Manning regressed, I believe his lower production was tied to the outstanding success of the team. If they can't run effectively it might actually be a good thing for Manning owners.

Marvin Harrison had offseason elbow surgery but appears to be fine. Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark all return. Manning has a good understanding with all of his receivers. At 30 years of age, he should still be in his prime. I don't think the schedule has much bearing on Manning's likely success. The Colts are good enough to establish the passing game against any team. But they are at home to the Bengals in a potential Week 15 shootout, and then visit the Texans in Week 16, so the possibility is there for two big games when most fantasy leagues will hold their playoffs.

I don't expect the Colts to clinch their division in Week 13 again, and I would be very surprised if Manning falls short of 4000 yards this year. He surely would have thrown at least four TDs in the final two regular season games had they meant anything. I am expecting a small shift in focus towards the passing game in key situations, and I don't think the Colts will have so many easy wins. All of those factors should lead to an increase in passing attempts, and hopefully fantasy owners will see Manning active for the entire game in Week 16.

I happen to think that the Colts were clearly the best team in the league last year, and that a big reason they lost was due to the long gap between clinching the bye and playing the next meaningful game. The mood could not have been helped by the loss of Tony Dungy's son either. The Colts should have a chip on their shoulder this year.

Prediction

363/540 4475 yards 36 TDs 10 INTs

30 rushes 50 yards 0 TDs

 

[diesel7982]

Ill be the first to come in on the high side

4750 yards passing, 38 Passing TDs

40 yards rushing, 0 TDs

#1 fantasy QB by far, worth a first round pick, but probably an easy value in the 2nd round.

Where do you see those yards going?
     |----------WR---------||------TE-----||-------RB------|       1     2     3   Tot     1    2    Tot    1    2    Tot2004 25.6  23.5  22.8  72.4   8.9  6.5  16.2  10.2  0.8  11.52005 27.3  25.2  13.0  70.9  11.6  4.8  18.1   8.0  2.1  11.0That's how Indy's passing yards were spread out the past two years. How do you see WR3/Stokley doing? What about RB1? Does Fletcher or one of the Bens become a solid TE2? And does Harrison remain the WR1?

To answer your questions, I expect Wayne to become one of the premier #1 WRs this season, as Harrison recovers from offseason surgery. I think Harrison is still obviously a factor, but I expect Wayne to become the main threat. I think Stokley rebounds a bit this year, as the Colts make more of a move to spread the field as they did in 2004. I think Clark sees a bit more action, but no, I do not see Fletcher becoming startable. I think we'll see Rhodes and Addai play more of a factor in the passing game than Edge did; this mainly being a consequence of them not being as effective as a runner as Edge was. We'll see the ball in the air quite a bit from the '06 Colts. Wayne 95/1400/10

Harrison 85/1100/12

Stokely 50/650/4

Other WRs 20/270/1

WRs: 250 catches, 3420 yards, 27 TDs

Clark 45/600/5

Fletcher 20/200/3

Other TEs 5/50/1

TEs:

Rhodes 25/200/1

Addai 30/250/1

Other 5/30/0

380 total completions, ~575 total passing attempts, 66.1% completion pct., 4750 total passing yards, 38 total TDs

 

[joffer]

340/515/4275 passing yards

33 TDs / 12 INTs

40 rushing yards

 

[Portis Homer]

In projecting Peyton Manning, I focused on his 2001 and 2002 seasons, as these were his seasons playing with an unknown run game (aka Rhodes or a recovering Edge) and having to take the entire offense on his shoulders.

2001: 343/547 4131 26/24

2002: 392/591 4200 27/19

This averages out to approx: 365/560 4160 27/21

Now, in my opinion Manning has some benefits he did not have those years, primarily:

- More maturity

- Less tendency to make the "poor decision" and force the ball

- The emergence of Reggie Wayne

Based on this, I could see a 10% increase in TDs and a 10% decrease in Ints, resulting in:

265/560 4200 30/19

Note: I am ignoring any rushing stats as I expect them to be immaterial.

 

[mlball77]

In projecting Peyton Manning, I focused on his 2001 and 2002 seasons, as these were his seasons playing with an unknown run game (aka Rhodes or a recovering Edge) and having to take the entire offense on his shoulders.

2001: 343/547 4131 26/24

2002: 392/591 4200 27/19

This averages out to approx: 365/560 4160 27/21

Now, in my opinion Manning has some benefits he did not have those years, primarily:

- More maturity

- Less tendency to make the "poor decision" and force the ball

- The emergence of Reggie Wayne

Based on this, I could see a 10% increase in TDs and a 10% decrease in Ints, resulting in:

265/560 4200 30/19

Note: I am ignoring any rushing stats as I expect them to be immaterial.

VERY interesting take on this one. You definitely presented a different way to examine the situation... at least for me.

 

[broncofan13000]

In projecting Peyton Manning, I focused on his 2001 and 2002 seasons, as these were his seasons playing with an unknown run game (aka Rhodes or a recovering Edge) and having to take the entire offense on his shoulders.

2001: 343/547 4131 26/24

2002: 392/591 4200 27/19

This averages out to approx: 365/560 4160 27/21

Now, in my opinion Manning has some benefits he did not have those years, primarily:

- More maturity

- Less tendency to make the "poor decision" and force the ball

- The emergence of Reggie Wayne

Based on this, I could see a 10% increase in TDs and a 10% decrease in Ints, resulting in:

265/560 4200 30/19

Note: I am ignoring any rushing stats as I expect them to be immaterial.

Do you really think Manning's interceptions will double? The guy hasn't thrown over 10 ints since 2002...

 

[Portis Homer]

Do you really think Manning's interceptions will double? The guy hasn't thrown over 10 ints since 2002...

He also hasn't been without a healthy Edge since 2002. I do not think this is a coincidence. A great run game greatly helps the pass attack. The loss of Edge leads to:- The loss of Manning's favorite drop-off target- Safeties in coverage rather than in the box- More 2nd and long + 3rd and long situationsCombine these factors and I think an increase to a still respectable 19 interceptions is realistic.

 

[rzrback77]

Peyton Manning is far and away the number one QB choice for 2006. He has ranked 4th, 3rd, 3rd, 4th, 2nd, 2nd, and 3rd the previous seven seasons. He ranked third last season, even though he set out almost the entire game 16 and the majority of game 15. He has superb game awareness and a quick trigger minimizing the number of sacks that he takes. He has played sixteen games in every season (eight consecutive). In the previous four seasons, his completion percentage has varied only from 66.3% to 67.3% and his number of interceptions have been 19, 10, 10, 10. He is the epitome of a sure safe starter.

And the Colts running game is without their Edge. I see the Colts needing to pass more than last season due to the following:

1) RBs not as efficient as Edge

2) Colts not as dominant this year and will need more offense

3) Manning more likely to play a complete game in week 16 and 17

I just don't see much difference from what you have gotten over the last seven year, except for the loss of one of the top running backs in the league. So, consider last year the floor and adjust to play more at the end of the season and possibly pass more frequently, say just two additional passes per game.

365 completions in 545 attempts for 4644 yards with 36 TDs and 12 Ints. Adding at least one play per game where he looks to be running in quicksand as he scrambles and it produces 30 rushing yards and no TDs.

Only problem here is that there is always some guy willing to take himearlier than me, but I regret that as I love watching and cheering for him and would love to have him on my team.

 

[diesel7982]

Do you really think Manning's interceptions will double? The guy hasn't thrown over 10 ints since 2002...

He also hasn't been without a healthy Edge since 2002. I do not think this is a coincidence. A great run game greatly helps the pass attack. The loss of Edge leads to:- The loss of Manning's favorite drop-off target

- Safeties in coverage rather than in the box

- More 2nd and long + 3rd and long situations

Combine these factors and I think an increase to a still respectable 19 interceptions is realistic.

Are you proposing that in the past, teams brought up 8 into the box to stop James, and dared Manning to beat them?

 

[Portis Homer]

Are you proposing that in the past, teams brought up 8 into the box to stop James, and dared Manning to beat them?

I take it you never watched an Indy game during Manning's 49 TD season.

 

[diesel7982]

Are you proposing that in the past, teams brought up 8 into the box to stop James, and dared Manning to beat them?

I take it you never watched an Indy game during Manning's 49 TD season.

Nope..they were never on TV that season.

 

[Kevin Ashcraft]

347/515

4380 Yds

38/14

Rushing

30/44 1 TD

 

[Cool in the pocket]

From a draft standpoint, there is no doubt that Peyton has to be QB 1, especially with Palmer's injury/rehab. The real question is where would you draft him. Most will shy away from him in the first round due to QB depth and potential loss at another position. He is a virtual lock for 30TD's and 3700 yards and is probably the safest thing in FF today. Most will suggest, and I agree, that he stands to see an increase over last year due to an increased reliance on the passing game due to a less effective ground game. For me, I will not shy away from drafting him in the mid-late second round. Many variables will come into play, but I feel the second tier runners don't have as much value as the second tier WR's--hopefully the leagues I'm in will be RB focussed and gobble them up and then maybe Manning could be a play, then a WR then a third tier back who has more value IMHO. Lots of cards need to fall right for him to be in play, but the bottom line is I wouldn't be automatically discarding the notion.

4300 yards, 35 TD's, 12 picks negligible yards on the ground--maybe 1 QB TD sneak.

 

[mlball77]

Seems like most of us are expecting Manning to be even more productive than he was last year. I think with Edge gone, Manning may have to do more... but hopefully Indy's offense doesn't become too one dimensional.

Pass Yds: 4055

TDs: 34

INTs: 14

Rush Yds: 30

TDs: 0

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

363/540 4475 yards 36 TDs 10 INTs

30 rushes 50 yards 0 TDs

Actual

362/557 4397 yards 31 TDs 9 INTs

23 carries 36 yards 4 TDs

I own Manning in several dynasty and keeper leagues, and took him in one redraft league this year. Even with opponents succeeding in running the ball to keep the Colts' offense off the field, Manning achieved a very good season statistically. Four of his TDs came on the ground, but his overall fantasy production was right were I hoped and expected it would be.

Peyton Manning has finished in the top four since 1999 and was ninth in his rookie season. He failed to reach 4000 passing yards last season for the first time since that rookie year, but he only played a total of one quarter in the last two games. The Colts had wrapped up the number one seed by that time.

Manning doesn't take many sacks and has averaged just one per game over the last three seasons. He doesn't throw many interceptions either and he has three straight years with just 10 picks. He has also never missed a career start and has thrown at least 26 TD passes every year he has been in the league.

The big absence for the Colts this year will be Edgerrin James. The team will try to replace him with Dominic Rhodes and Joseph Addai. The success of those two will have an effect on Manning. James was a good blocker and fully understood the system. James also finished fifth in rushing yards with 1506 and scored a total of 14 TDs. Rhodes did well when he started for the injured James in 2001, rushing for over 1100 yards in 10 starts, but he has only started one game since then. The Colts took Addai in the first round and it is unclear how the carries will be distributed between the two.

The two biggest questions are can the Colts establish an effective running game, and will the backs be able to protect Manning in the passing game? I am expecting the answers to be yes in both cases. But it does make me wonder whether the Colts will look to throw more in key situations. Manning seems more in command of his offense than any quarterback I have ever seen; at least during the regular season. It has only been two years since he set the record for passing TDs with 49. The Colts looked so efficient in posting 13 straight wins last year and were not often fully extended. I don't think Manning regressed, I believe his lower production was tied to the outstanding success of the team. If they can't run effectively it might actually be a good thing for Manning owners.

Marvin Harrison had offseason elbow surgery but appears to be fine. Reggie Wayne, Brandon Stokley and Dallas Clark all return. Manning has a good understanding with all of his receivers. At 30 years of age, he should still be in his prime. I don't think the schedule has much bearing on Manning's likely success. The Colts are good enough to establish the passing game against any team. But they are at home to the Bengals in a potential Week 15 shootout, and then visit the Texans in Week 16, so the possibility is there for two big games when most fantasy leagues will hold their playoffs.

I don't expect the Colts to clinch their division in Week 13 again, and I would be very surprised if Manning falls short of 4000 yards this year. He surely would have thrown at least four TDs in the final two regular season games had they meant anything. I am expecting a small shift in focus towards the passing game in key situations, and I don't think the Colts will have so many easy wins. All of those factors should lead to an increase in passing attempts, and hopefully fantasy owners will see Manning active for the entire game in Week 16.

I happen to think that the Colts were clearly the best team in the league last year, and that a big reason they lost was due to the long gap between clinching the bye and playing the next meaningful game. The mood could not have been helped by the loss of Tony Dungy's son either. The Colts should have a chip on their shoulder this year.

Prediction

363/540 4475 yards 36 TDs 10 INTs

30 rushes 50 yards 0 TDs