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Player Spotlight: Peyton Manning (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis Colts

Player Page Link: Peyton Manning Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 
365 Completions, 4200 Yards

30 TD, 11 Int

0 Rushing TD, yards irrelevant but less than 30 for '07.

 
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I am gonna give him a few more INTs simply because he has to have an "off" year eventually, right? Otherwise, he should be his usual stellar self. I have concerns for Indy regarding their RB depth and the impact it would have on their offense if Addai were to suffer and injury....that would only bolster Manning's numbers (positive and negative) across the board, though. So I am comfortable with the following numbers this early in the off-season:

349/527-4350-32-15

Not too shabby.

 
The good in the offseason:

1. I believe Anthony Gonzalez should help the offense right away (even as a rookie). The offense struggled badly in the last part of the regular season without Stokely and Dallas Clark - and having a legitimate slot receiver will turbo-charge the offense again. I thought there was a good chance before the draft that Gonzalez would be the 1st round pick of the Colts because he fit the Colts WR profile just about perfectly. Note: This doesn't mean I think Gonzalez will be a fantasy force at WR - it means I think he'll make key 3rd down catches and keep defenses honest in the middle of the field.

2. This is by far the most OL depth the Colts have had in recent years. It is only a one-year thing, but they are 4 deep at guard, have depth at RT and have an apprentice at LT.

3. The D (let me explain). They lost a lot of veterans on D, and will replace it with a lot of youth. I expect the D to give up more big passing plays this season because of the relative inexperience in the secondary (and losing WLB Cato June). I do expect the rush D to be somewhat better because they are getting a couple of 300+ pounders (Pitcock and UDFA Quinton Echols) - probably as guys to help "eat innings" on rushing downs - and I think Keiaho will be a better tackler than June at WLB (but worse at pass coverage). This means I expect more high-scoring games this season for the Colts than last season (worse pass D, better rush D means more possessions per game and more opportunites to score points).

The question mark:

Who's going to be the #2 RB for the Colts? De De Dorsey? CFL Star Kenton Keith? A UFA like Kevin Barlow? The Harvard guy (yeah, right)? Addai is not going to be used like Edge was, so that is a question that needs to be addressed. If Dorsey is the #2 RB, it will mean bigger plays (both good and bad) than say a guy like "2.8 yards and a cloud of artificial soil" Barlow.

So, my projections are:

4550 passing yards, 35 TDs, 14 INTs, 25 rushing yards, 1 Rushing TD.

More passing, a few more INTs, and last year's rushing TD total was clearly fluky.

 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.

 
I'm on vacation in the Outer Banks, so I only have time for my projections....

4012 yds passing

87 TD's

2 INT's

450 yds rushing

12 TD's

Back to my pitcher of margaritas now!

 
I'm having my doubts about him. He's never won the big game before so he's never had to deal with the post-big game winning let down. :bye:

 
Profile/Background: Love him or hate him, this prodigous passer's penchant for perfection is rivaled only by his passion for product promotion. While wasting time on a recap of his stats over the last nine years is probably pointless for anyone in the Western Hemisphere with a television, the highlights are as follows:

Manning has never passed for fewer than 3,747 yards, or for less than 26 TD.
In seven of his nine NFL seasons, Manning has had at least 4,000 yards, topping the 4200 yard mark 5 times.
He's thrown 10 or less interceptions in each of the last four years.
He's finished as a top 4 fantasy quarterback for 8 of the last nine years.Key changes/additions: Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne return, along with the newly acquired Anthony Gonzalez, who just makes the rich even richer. Dom Rhodes heads out of town, but studly Joe Addai looks to build on a 1000+ yard rookie campaign as the undisputed starter.

Outlook The guy is too good to even waste a lengthy post on. Given his history, you'd have to be certifiably insane to pencil him in for anything less than 4,000 yards and another 26 TD. That's probably his downside.

2007 Peyton Manning Projection: 4,188 yds passing, 28 TD, 9 INT, 20 yds rushing, 1 TD

 
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The good in the offseason:1. I believe Anthony Gonzalez should help the offense right away (even as a rookie). The offense struggled badly in the last part of the regular season without Stokely and Dallas Clark - and having a legitimate slot receiver will turbo-charge the offense again. I thought there was a good chance before the draft that Gonzalez would be the 1st round pick of the Colts because he fit the Colts WR profile just about perfectly. Note: This doesn't mean I think Gonzalez will be a fantasy force at WR - it means I think he'll make key 3rd down catches and keep defenses honest in the middle of the field. 2. This is by far the most OL depth the Colts have had in recent years. It is only a one-year thing, but they are 4 deep at guard, have depth at RT and have an apprentice at LT. 3. The D (let me explain). They lost a lot of veterans on D, and will replace it with a lot of youth. I expect the D to give up more big passing plays this season because of the relative inexperience in the secondary (and losing WLB Cato June). I do expect the rush D to be somewhat better because they are getting a couple of 300+ pounders (Pitcock and UDFA Quinton Echols) - probably as guys to help "eat innings" on rushing downs - and I think Keiaho will be a better tackler than June at WLB (but worse at pass coverage). This means I expect more high-scoring games this season for the Colts than last season (worse pass D, better rush D means more possessions per game and more opportunites to score points).The question mark:Who's going to be the #2 RB for the Colts? De De Dorsey? CFL Star Kenton Keith? A UFA like Kevin Barlow? The Harvard guy (yeah, right)? Addai is not going to be used like Edge was, so that is a question that needs to be addressed. If Dorsey is the #2 RB, it will mean bigger plays (both good and bad) than say a guy like "2.8 yards and a cloud of artificial soil" Barlow. So, my projections are:4550 passing yards, 35 TDs, 14 INTs, 25 rushing yards, 1 Rushing TD.More passing, a few more INTs, and last year's rushing TD total was clearly fluky.
:confused: DJ!I like your thoughts. I think we are in for an offensive explosion this season as the Colts try to defend the title.I look for Manning to have 4300/39 TDs/ 12 INTs/ 35 R. Yds./ 1 R. TDI like Gonzalez to get 700/ 7 TDsHarrison 1200/ 12 TDsWayne 1350/ 13 TDsAddai 1475 R. Yds. 350 Rec. Yds 13 TDs(2 Rec.)D. Clark 350/ 3 TDs
 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
I disagree the consistency of Peyton makes him much more valuable than you are giving him credit for.You should not spend your #1 on him but later in the draft if you have a choice between a RB why might be in RBBC or a 2nd tier WR, you better grab the #1 QB in the land.

 
I'm on vacation in the Outer Banks, so I only have time for my projections....4012 yds passing87 TD's2 INT's450 yds rushing12 TD'sBack to my pitcher of margaritas now!
Enjoy the vacation DW, and we look forward to your usually detailed writeups when you get back!
 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
I disagree the consistency of Peyton makes him much more valuable than you are giving him credit for.You should not spend your #1 on him but "later in the draft" if you have a choice between a RB why might be in RBBC or a 2nd tier WR, you better grab the #1 QB in the land.
When? 1.10? You aren't going to be waiting very long to take Manning before it's too long.
 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
I disagree the consistency of Peyton makes him much more valuable than you are giving him credit for.You should not spend your #1 on him but "later in the draft" if you have a choice between a RB why might be in RBBC or a 2nd tier WR, you better grab the #1 QB in the land.
When? 1.10? You aren't going to be waiting very long to take Manning before it's too long.
Byron_nyc said he would pick him in the top 20..I would pick him >= 15th.

 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
I disagree the consistency of Peyton makes him much more valuable than you are giving him credit for.You should not spend your #1 on him but "later in the draft" if you have a choice between a RB why might be in RBBC or a 2nd tier WR, you better grab the #1 QB in the land.
When? 1.10? You aren't going to be waiting very long to take Manning before it's too long.
Byron_nyc said he would pick him in the top 20..I would pick him >= 15th.
You and I are probably in agreement then. It's the rare (or small) league in which Manning falls to the 2nd round anymore.
 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.

 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
 
Its pretty nice having a virtual lock as a top 3 QB in a dynasty league, especially knowing that he should have several more great years. His durability is great, and I hope that it continues.

As far as projections, I think he'll be something like this:

4300 yrd passing, 34 TDs, 12 int, 100 rush yrd, 1 rush TD.

 
David Yudkin said:
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
 
David Yudkin said:
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
Although your experience can point to this, I think the board could show as many instances where taking Manning in the first round also led to a :championship:There are no hard fast rules about Manning and where he should be taken.

 
David Yudkin said:
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
Although your experience can point to this, I think the board could show as many instances where taking Manning in the first round also led to a :championship:There are no hard fast rules about Manning and where he should be taken.
In a 8-10..even 12 team league that may be so.In a 14 team league the odds go down.

 
David Yudkin said:
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
Any team that drafted Manning in 2004 was ahead of every other team in the league after one round.
 
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David Yudkin said:
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
Although your experience can point to this, I think the board could show as many instances where taking Manning in the first round also led to a :championship:There are no hard fast rules about Manning and where he should be taken.
In a 8-10..even 12 team league that may be so.In a 14 team league the odds go down.
Why is that, exactly? The more QBs that have to start the more valuable Manning becomes.
 
David Yudkin said:
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
Although your experience can point to this, I think the board could show as many instances where taking Manning in the first round also led to a :championship:There are no hard fast rules about Manning and where he should be taken.
In a 8-10..even 12 team league that may be so.In a 14 team league the odds go down.
Why is that, exactly? The more QBs that have to start the more valuable Manning becomes.
That my thought exactly! The same holds true for Gates and LT as well IMO.
 
Peyton Manning

4,400 yards 42 TD's 16 INT's and another MVP followed by another Lombardi Trophy and then a very lucrative nutrilean for men where he loses 40 lbs and get the new nickname Skinny.

 
Looking thru this, surprised no one mentioned the following with regards to the Colts in '07:

Wk. 14 - @ Baltimore (#6 ranked pass D in '06)

Wk. 15 - @ Oakland (#1 ranked pass D in '06)

Wk. 16 - HOUSTON (#22 ranked pass D in '06)

My fantasy playoffs start in Week 14. So looking at the schedule, I'll really think hard about drafting anyone associated with the Colts passing game. Sure, they may get you to your Playoffs, but they may not win it for you once you're there.

 
Looking thru this, surprised no one mentioned the following with regards to the Colts in '07:Wk. 14 - @ Baltimore (#6 ranked pass D in '06)Wk. 15 - @ Oakland (#1 ranked pass D in '06)Wk. 16 - HOUSTON (#22 ranked pass D in '06)My fantasy playoffs start in Week 14. So looking at the schedule, I'll really think hard about drafting anyone associated with the Colts passing game. Sure, they may get you to your Playoffs, but they may not win it for you once you're there.
Manning might score lower than his average but his floor is still better than the ceiling of others.
 
Looking thru this, surprised no one mentioned the following with regards to the Colts in '07:Wk. 14 - @ Baltimore (#6 ranked pass D in '06)Wk. 15 - @ Oakland (#1 ranked pass D in '06)Wk. 16 - HOUSTON (#22 ranked pass D in '06)My fantasy playoffs start in Week 14. So looking at the schedule, I'll really think hard about drafting anyone associated with the Colts passing game. Sure, they may get you to your Playoffs, but they may not win it for you once you're there.
Manning might score lower than his average but his floor is still better than the ceiling of others.
Obviously not saying he would duplicate these numbers but...in last year's playoff game @ Baltimore he went for 170 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. That'll end your season real fast.
 
This is the Colts '07 schedule

Code:
Sep 6 New Orleans 8:30pm	Sep 16 @Tennessee 1:00pm	Sep 23 @Houston 1:00pm	Sep 30 Denver 4:15pm	Oct 7 Tampa Bay 4:05pm	Week 6 BYE	  Oct 22 @Jacksonville 8:30pm	Oct 28 @Carolina 12:00pm	Nov 4 New England 4:15pm	Nov 11 @San Diego 8:15pm	Nov 18 Kansas City 1:00pm	Nov 22 @Atlanta 8:15pm	Dec 2 Jacksonville 1:00pm	Dec 9 @Baltimore 8:15pm	Dec 16 @Oakland 4:05pm	Dec 23 Houston 1:00pm	Dec 30 Tennessee 1:00pm
 
The greatest player of his era. Guaranteed to be the #1 or 2 fantasy QB overall.

And yet ... you should not draft him.

In 1-QB formats of 14 or less teams, no quarterback is worth a top-twenty pick, and that is where Peyt goes in 99% of drafts. He's fun to root for, but in the end the guy with a better #2 WR wins the championship with some goofus QB. Peyton is the forbidden fruit of fantasy football. You were warned.

4250 yds, 35 tds, 12 int, 80 yard rushing, 1 TD on the ground.
That is true. The last three years in my main 14 team league the team that drafted Payton early did not make the playoffs.Unless you get lucky on a RB you are behind the 8 ball.
Please see any number of other threads on this one. You can easily win taking Manning early and you are not really behind the 8-ball any overall.
That may be so, but the last three years in my 14 team league Manning has been drafted in the top 10..each time those teams have not made the playoffs.
Although your experience can point to this, I think the board could show as many instances where taking Manning in the first round also led to a :championship:There are no hard fast rules about Manning and where he should be taken.
In a 8-10..even 12 team league that may be so.In a 14 team league the odds go down.
Why is that, exactly? The more QBs that have to start the more valuable Manning becomes.
Would anyone take him at the 2.01 spot in a 14 team league.
 
Would anyone take him at the 2.01 spot in a 14 team league.

if you have the 2.01, don't you also have the 1.14?

i had Manning in a 16 team keeper last year with marginal RBs (FWP and Freddy T) and decent WRs (Harrison and Housh) and ended up winning the whole shebang.

i've kept Manning, FWP, and Harrison and will try to rebuild around this, although my league favors QBs as TDs are equal for all players (it seems in some leagues QB passing TDs count for less)

i like Peyton for another 4K yds and 35 TDs and I don't give a rip about INTs as we don't penalize for them! Any rushing stats are just gravy.

 
Would anyone take him at the 2.01 spot in a 14 team league.
if you have the 2.01, don't you also have the 1.14?

i had Manning in a 16 team keeper last year with marginal RBs (FWP and Freddy T) and decent WRs (Harrison and Housh) and ended up winning the whole shebang.

i've kept Manning, FWP, and Harrison and will try to rebuild around this, although my league favors QBs as TDs are equal for all players (it seems in some leagues QB passing TDs count for less)

i like Peyton for another 4K yds and 35 TDs and I don't give a rip about INTs as we don't penalize for them! Any rushing stats are just gravy.

Yes, I took McGhahee with the 1.14 thats why I am thinking of taking Manning with 2.01

 

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