Player Spotlight: R. Cobb, J. Jones, J. Nelson, WRs, GB Packers (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randall Cobb, James Jones & Jordy Nelson, WRs, Green Bay Packers

Player Page Link: Randall Cobb Player Page

Player Page Link: James Jones Player Page

Player Page Link: Jordy Nelson Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[BroadwayG]

My biggest question here isn't these top guys, it's the WR4 opening.

 

[Beerguzzler]

The big question is whether or not Jones can continue to produce those touchdowns and pick up some receptions, he was clearly Rodgers favorite option in the red zone. Rodgers recently said Cobb can be a 100 catch guy. I think Jordy is the 3rd most valuable guy in that WR corps.

 

[Eminence]

The big question is whether or not Jones can continue to produce those touchdowns and pick up some receptions, he was clearly Rodgers favorite option in the red zone. Rodgers recently said Cobb can be a 100 catch guy. I think Jordy is the 3rd most valuable guy in that WR corps.

Eh, Nelson was gimpy last-year and anything Cobb gets extra washes out what Jennings took last year.

They all produce, Jones is my main concern. Nelson and Cobb will be able to turn their non-redzone receptions into touchdowns. While James Jones (lower receptions) will have less opportunities to do so.Again, Nelson missed quite a few games last-year and had he been healthy Jones probably doesn't reach 14 Touchdowns last-year. Keep in mind, Nelson scored 15 Touchdowns in 2012.

Cobb > Nelson > Jones.

That's how I rank them, they'll all produce though. It's Aaron Rodgers.

 

[sho nuff]

The big question is whether or not Jones can continue to produce those touchdowns and pick up some receptions, he was clearly Rodgers favorite option in the red zone. Rodgers recently said Cobb can be a 100 catch guy. I think Jordy is the 3rd most valuable guy in that WR corps.

Eh, Nelson was gimpy last-year and anything Cobb gets extra washes out what Jennings took last year.

They all produce, Jones is my main concern. Nelson and Cobb will be able to turn their non-redzone receptions into touchdowns. While James Jones (lower receptions) will have less opportunities to do so.Again, Nelson missed quite a few games last-year and had he been healthy Jones probably doesn't reach 14 Touchdowns last-year. Keep in mind, Nelson scored 15 Touchdowns in 2012.

Cobb > Nelson > Jones.

That's how I rank them, they'll all produce though. It's Aaron Rodgers.

Agree with this to an extent.

But I think they have that trust in Jones now not to drop the ball too.

He was taking over a lot of those plays you used to see Jennings make.

I think value wise...

Nelson will likely be downgraded in people's minds and will probably give you the best bang for your buck come draft day.

 

[meyerj31]

The big question is whether or not Jones can continue to produce those touchdowns and pick up some receptions, he was clearly Rodgers favorite option in the red zone. Rodgers recently said Cobb can be a 100 catch guy. I think Jordy is the 3rd most valuable guy in that WR corps.

Eh, Nelson was gimpy last-year and anything Cobb gets extra washes out what Jennings took last year.

They all produce, Jones is my main concern. Nelson and Cobb will be able to turn their non-redzone receptions into touchdowns. While James Jones (lower receptions) will have less opportunities to do so.Again, Nelson missed quite a few games last-year and had he been healthy Jones probably doesn't reach 14 Touchdowns last-year. Keep in mind, Nelson scored 15 Touchdowns in 2012.

Cobb > Nelson > Jones.

That's how I rank them, they'll all produce though. It's Aaron Rodgers.

Agree with this to an extent.

But I think they have that trust in Jones now not to drop the ball too.

He was taking over a lot of those plays you used to see Jennings make.

I think value wise...

Nelson will likely be downgraded in people's minds and will probably give you the best bang for your buck come draft day.

That whole drop issue was overblown. Jones was never more than a drop or two higher than Jennings in any season when pro-rated by targets. I think in 2011 Jennings had 6 and Jones had 7 or something close like that. The few drops he had in his past were in nationally televised games so they got blown out of proportion.

Jones was a rock star last year and he's an underrated wide receiver. That said, he's still the 3rd option in this offense.

Nelson is a beast and a better physical specimen than Jones. He's the top dog, #1 WR in this group who can do everything. I love Cobb but he's never going to play outside. Nelson can do everything.

In PPR, Cobb > Nelson > Jones.

In non-PPR, Nelson > Cobb > Jones.

Nelson is the guy getting 2-3 long TD shots per game and those are the money plays for the Packers and for fantasy. In 2011, if you review the Packers games, you'll see that entire offense was designed around set-ups and play actions to get the long TD looks to Nelson. He had 15 TDs for a reason - the offense was designed to get him those long looks. He had another 15 or so that were long receptions that didn't go for TDs. He was getting multiple of them each week and I see that happening again if the Packers can get a run game going. Cobb will be a beast underneath but I think it's a big mistake to be drafting Cobb much before (or at all before) Nelson. This is all, of course, if Nelson can get over the hammy issues that plagued him last year, but I'm going to give him the benefit of the doubt on that.

 

[jonboltz]

Barring injuries, I expect the talent to rise to the top in 2013, much like it happened in 2011.

Gimme Nelson by a wide margin here, and a top 10 finish. I'd expect Cobb to end up in the late teens, and Jones in the early 20s.

 

[LawFitz]

Cobb will get his week in and week out as the featured player in this offense. Jones and Nelson will split all the big plays on the outside as Cobb works his magic in the middle. In return yardage leagues, Cobb will finish as a top 5 WR. Again.

Nelson and Jones will be top 20, but which will top the other, I can't say. Depends on coverages, which means much higher deviation in scoring each week compared to Mr. TD Robber Cobbler.

With or without a running game, ARod will finish as a top 3 QB again.

 

[Nucker101]

Cobb's ADP will be a bit too rich for me this year, Jones is going right where he should be, and I think Nelson could end up being quite a value and after a tough season through injuries he could bounce back to potentially even be the most valuable WR in this offense. I'll be interested to see how much Cobb really is featured and if Jones will be able to keep up his TD numbers.

 

[fightingillini]

We all know Rodgers is going to throw for about 4800 yards and 37-42 TDs. So how is it going to be distributed?

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Cobb is going to be the "Wes Welker" or "Percy Harvin" of the GB offense. Likely GB will use Cobb to exploit mismatches. IMO, he gets a good chunk of Jennings' production.

Cobb - 90 rec, 1150 yds, 8 TD, 25 rushes, 140 yds, 1 TD

Jones is the scoring threat, and he has to keep scoring to keep up his fantasy value. A borderline WR2, but again, his upside is limited due to the others (as well as Finley)

Jones - 65 rec, 900 yds, 10 TD

Total for Rodgers - 4800 yds, 39 TD

Nelson 1075-9

Cobb 1150-8

Jones 900-10

Finley 700-6

RBs 400-3

Other WRs-TE 575-5

 

[cstu]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

 

[fightingillini]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

Then Cobb and Jones really heated up. Nelson essentially was the unquestioned #1 option when Jennings got hurt early in the season. Now I think Cobb is going to get the most targets and Jones the most redzone targets. For Nelson to be a top 10 WR, he's going to need to score more than 10 TDs. He's done it before, but it's still a tall order and not a scenario that I would project as a best estimate.

 

[cstu]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

Then Cobb and Jones really heated up. Nelson essentially was the unquestioned #1 option when Jennings got hurt early in the season. Now I think Cobb is going to get the most targets and Jones the most redzone targets. For Nelson to be a top 10 WR, he's going to need to score more than 10 TDs. He's done it before, but it's still a tall order and not a scenario that I would project as a best estimate.

In those first 7 games Nelson was #6, Cobb was #11, and Jones was #14. There's enough in that offense for all of them.

 

[FF Ninja]

Cobb > Nelson > Jones.

That's how I rank them

WR11, WR17, WR27

So yeah, that's how almost every ranks them.

I feel like probability says Cobb and James are being overdrafted. Nelson has produced at a high level before. Ignoring those 15 TDs, his catch rate and ypr was very impressive in 2011. His catch rate was high in 2010, as well. The same could be said for Cobb, although his meager 11.9 ypr suggests that he should be catching a high percentage of passes since he's likely running shorter routes. But Nelson does carry the injury tag over from last year that is scaring people off.

It seems crazy to see 3 guys from one team going so high and my gut instinct is that they're all overpriced, but in the last two years, the GB receiving corps has put up 1113.7 fantasy points (0 PPR) which beats second place Detroit by 227.2 points. That's right, they scored over 25% more fantasy points than the second place scoring team in the last two years. Insane.

But still, I would prefer Fitz (WR9) or AJ (WR10) by a wiiide margin over Cobb and I'd rather wait a round and take Nelson than spend such an early pick on Cobb. I absolutely can envision Cobb blowing up this year and making me regret that decision, but a 3rd rounder for him just seems like too much. I definitely like a lot of players better than Jones around WR27, so he won't be on any of my teams. But chances are, at least one player, if not two, will be top 10 on this offense if they play 16 games. There will probably be 500+ fantasy points to go around on this receiving corps. I can't fault anyone for trying to get a piece of that action.

 

[Ghost Rider]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

True, but he had that monster 3-TD game against Houston that helped him there, but two of his six games were total duds (not uncommon for WRs, I know).

Having said that, I do like Nelson to have a nice bounce back year.

 

[cstu]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues. Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

True, but he had that monster 3-TD game against Houston that helped him there, but two of his six games were total duds (not uncommon for WRs, I know). Having said that, I do like Nelson to have a nice bounce back year.

In his defense, in two of those dud weeks (1 and 3) Jennings played and had 9 and 10 targets.

 

[fightingillini]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

Then Cobb and Jones really heated up. Nelson essentially was the unquestioned #1 option when Jennings got hurt early in the season. Now I think Cobb is going to get the most targets and Jones the most redzone targets. For Nelson to be a top 10 WR, he's going to need to score more than 10 TDs. He's done it before, but it's still a tall order and not a scenario that I would project as a best estimate.

In those first 7 games Nelson was #6, Cobb was #11, and Jones was #14. There's enough in that offense for all of them.

Of course there is. All my projection clearly state that. The question is where do they finish and is their ADP worth it? To me, James Jones has the best value at his draft position....WR28. Cobb at WR10 and Nelson at WR17 each seem a little pricey to me. One of them is going to bust......which one will it be?

 

[cstu]

I think we know what Nelson brings to the table. He's a deep threat, a more boom or bust type WR. Better suited for a W32 role, but has a WR2 price. Likely won't catch enough passes to be a WR1. Like him much more in standard leagues.

Nelson - 72 rec, 1075 yds, 9 TD

Nelson was getting a lot of targets before he got injured last year and was the #6 WR after 7 games.

Then Cobb and Jones really heated up. Nelson essentially was the unquestioned #1 option when Jennings got hurt early in the season. Now I think Cobb is going to get the most targets and Jones the most redzone targets. For Nelson to be a top 10 WR, he's going to need to score more than 10 TDs. He's done it before, but it's still a tall order and not a scenario that I would project as a best estimate.

In those first 7 games Nelson was #6, Cobb was #11, and Jones was #14. There's enough in that offense for all of them.

Of course there is. All my projection clearly state that. The question is where do they finish and is their ADP worth it? To me, James Jones has the best value at his draft position....WR28. Cobb at WR10 and Nelson at WR17 each seem a little pricey to me. One of them is going to bust......which one will it be?

Cobb is too expensive for my taste but I have a feeling that he's being drafted that high since he's considered to have a very high floor in that offense. I don't see him finishing higher than #10 WR but he's a safe pick.

Nelson at 17 is a steal IMO and I also like Jones at 28.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cobb only started outside due to multiple injuries. Is it safe to assume he starts in that role this year? If he doesn't, how much production can he provide when he is only on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps?

FTR; James Jones started over Cobb in 2012 when one of Jordy or Jennings were out.

 

[LawFitz]

Cobb only started outside due to multiple injuries. Is it safe to assume he starts in that role this year? If he doesn't, how much production can he provide when he is only on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps?

FTR; James Jones started over Cobb in 2012 when one of Jordy or Jennings were out.

Packers run more 3+ WR personnel than that, don't they?

 

[Concept Coop]

Cobb only started outside due to multiple injuries. Is it safe to assume he starts in that role this year? If he doesn't, how much production can he provide when he is only on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps?

FTR; James Jones started over Cobb in 2012 when one of Jordy or Jennings were out.

Packers run more 3+ WR personnel than that, don't they?

I'm going by football outsiders individual player snap count, so it's not perfect; the team plays 4+ WRs at times, and Cobb lined up in the backfield too. But, when everyone was healthy, Cobb was on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps.

ETA: The starting outside WRs typically played 90+% of the snaps.

 

[cdubz]

Cobb only started outside due to multiple injuries. Is it safe to assume he starts in that role this year? If he doesn't, how much production can he provide when he is only on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps?

FTR; James Jones started over Cobb in 2012 when one of Jordy or Jennings were out.

Packers run more 3+ WR personnel than that, don't they?

I'm going by football outsiders individual player snap count, so it's not perfect; the team plays 4+ WRs at times, and Cobb lined up in the backfield too. But, when everyone was healthy, Cobb was on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps.

ETA: The starting outside WRs typically played 90+% of the snaps.

From NFL.com's Chris Wesseling:

Coach Mike McCarthy's preference is to remove Cobb from the kick-return game to increase his role on offense. Aaron Rodgers is counting on Cobb to replace Jennings as his go-to receiver. "I think Randall Cobb is a guy who could be a 100-plus catch guy every year," Rodgers said Wednesday, via ESPNWisconsin.com's Jason Wilde.

If they yank him off kick returns, you have to think he would see more than 60% of snaps on offense.

 

[Beerguzzler]

His targets are all that matter IMO. When he's been on the field, he's been the 1st option a ton of the time. The Packers don't need him on the field when they are running the ball. The big key this season is that they won't rotate anyone out when all the WR's are healthy. It's going to be the big 3 taking all the snaps. You also need to take injury concerns into account. Jones has been an iron man, being healthy for virtually his entire career. Cobb seems fairly durable as well + youngest of the group. Nelson, however, has been banged up. I expect he misses a few games this season as well with a pull of some sort (likely hammy).

Nelson to me seems to be the biggest ? of the group. Rodgers already came out publicly and said Cobb should get 100 receptions this year. Jones will continue to be the favorite red zone target.

 

[LawFitz]

Cobb only started outside due to multiple injuries. Is it safe to assume he starts in that role this year? If he doesn't, how much production can he provide when he is only on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps? FTR; James Jones started over Cobb in 2012 when one of Jordy or Jennings were out.

Packers run more 3+ WR personnel than that, don't they?

I'm going by football outsiders individual player snap count, so it's not perfect; the team plays 4+ WRs at times, and Cobb lined up in the backfield too. But, when everyone was healthy, Cobb was on the field for 50-60% of the offensive snaps. ETA: The starting outside WRs typically played 90+% of the snaps.

Watching a lot of Cobb's games last year, 60% just doesn't feel right to me in terms of his role. Not saying you're wrong, it just felt a lot greater than that watching him go last season once Jennings was out of the picture. More like 70%+. Maybe like you said, it was the returns and the catches from the backfield that brought up that number. Either way, in what you point out was a limited role at WR, Cobb put up top 5 fantasy WR stats last season (return leagues). Barring injury, I see no reason why he won't finish top ten again this year. If they take him off returns it will be because he'll be the featured WR on offense, so that could vault him to top 3 status if he excels there and forms a solid connection with ARod. Talent wise he is simply better than Nelson and Jones. And IMO Jennings. He's Percy Harvin lite AND playing with the best QB of our generation in their prime.

 

[TheJewru]

What Cobb did last year, or the percentage of his snaps he played last year is meaningless. That was last year. He is the the youngest stud receiver catching passes from the best QB in the league.

Cobb is going to dominate this year.

105 for 1350 12 TD's.

 

[Concept Coop]

What Cobb did last year, or the percentage of his snaps he played last year is meaningless. That was last year. He is the the youngest stud receiver catching passes from the best QB in the league.Cobb is going to dominate this year.105 for 1350 12 TD's.

It's not meaningless. As great as we think he is, his team played James Jones over him. Maybe that changes, maybe it doesn't. But when I am picking between Randall Cobb or Victor Cruz - I don't have to worry about that with Cruz.

 

[Concept Coop]

Talent wise he is simply better than Nelson and Jones. And IMO Jennings. He's Percy Harvin lite AND playing with the best QB of our generation in their primes. And he's a third year pro, if that means anything at all with wunderkinds like this.

Talent is subjective. Put him on the outside against the best corners in the league - and is he better than Jordy Nelson? I don't think so. I'd take Jordy over Cobb on the outside 100% of the time. The Packers agreed and took it a step further; they liked Jones on the outside better too. And Greg Jennings.

And the snap count is every offensive snap, including those in which he lined up in the backfield. When Jennings and Jordy were out, Cobb was on the field 90+% of the snaps.

Maybe all of this changes, but based on the hype, I don't think it's being considered.

 

[TheJewru]

Coop, his utilization last year was LAST year. The kid is still learning, it is year 3 of a player who was the youngest player in the league upon entering the league.

Chris Johnson received what percentage of carries the year before he broke the yards from scrimmage record? You know who cares abut last years numbers. Guys who chase last years titles. The guys that chase James Jones's numbers from last year and Victor Cruz's from 2011.

The way teams have adjusted to the deep ball accuracy of Rodgers is to give him the short stuff, Cobb will be the main beneficiary of this and will be the new Welker but faster with more game breaking scores.

 

[greggorymac]

Coop, I don't understand your rationale? You're using % snap count (comparing Jones's ~90% to Cobb's ~60%) to make the argument that the higher the snap count the higher scoring probability? Cobb and Jones play two completely different positions and by nature the slot receiver will not be on the field as much because he is taken out during certain run packages. The real question you need to ask yourself is how is the player used when he is on the field? Cobb's 104 targets to Jones's 98 targets suggests that regardless of the% snap count, they were utilized or looked at by Rogers the same.

 

[Wise Old Owl]

His targets are all that matter IMO. When he's been on the field, he's been the 1st option a ton of the time. The Packers don't need him on the field when they are running the ball. The big key this season is that they won't rotate anyone out when all the WR's are healthy. It's going to be the big 3 taking all the snaps. You also need to take injury concerns into account. Jones has been an iron man, being healthy for virtually his entire career. Cobb seems fairly durable as well + youngest of the group. Nelson, however, has been banged up. I expect he misses a few games this season as well with a pull of some sort (likely hammy).

Nelson to me seems to be the biggest ? of the group. Rodgers already came out publicly and said Cobb should get 100 receptions this year. Jones will continue to be the favorite red zone target.

Nelson and Cobb seem to be in a much clearer situation. Nelson gets a good amount of Red Zone looks as does Finely, Rodgers rushing TD's also took a dip last year and they had no productive goal line back to speak of. They just spent two picks in an attempt to fix that.

Basically I think the stars aligned for Jones to lead the league in TD's and if you are going into next year expecting 10+ TDs you are going to be disappointed. Look at Megatron this past year, that shows you no matter how good you are, TD's are a highly variable stat.

 

[jonboltz]

Talent wise he is simply better than Nelson and Jones. And IMO Jennings. He's Percy Harvin lite AND playing with the best QB of our generation in their prime.

Talent-wise, I still will give the advantage to Nelson.

 

[LawFitz]

Talent wise he is simply better than Nelson and Jones. And IMO Jennings. He's Percy Harvin lite AND playing with the best QB of our generation in their prime.

Talent-wise, I still will give the advantage to Nelson.

And this my friends, is why we play this glorious game.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop, I don't understand your rationale? You're using % snap count (comparing Jones's ~90% to Cobb's ~60%) to make the argument that the higher the snap count the higher scoring probability? Cobb and Jones play two completely different positions and by nature the slot receiver will not be on the field as much because he is taken out during certain run packages. The real question you need to ask yourself is how is the player used when he is on the field? Cobb's 104 targets to Jones's 98 targets suggests that regardless of the% snap count, they were utilized or looked at by Rogers the same.

I don't think I made that argument once. My argument is - until Cobb gets more 2 WR set work - 2012 was an above baseline year. People are making crazy projections like 105/1350/13 and don't realize that he won't come close to that if he isn't on the field more. He wouldn't have finished where he did last year without 2 injuries.

Again - it could change but it's not a given.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop, his utilization last year was LAST year. The kid is still learning, it is year 3 of a player who was the youngest player in the league upon entering the league.Chris Johnson received what percentage of carries the year before he broke the yards from scrimmage record? You know who cares abut last years numbers. Guys who chase last years titles. The guys that chase James Jones's numbers from last year and Victor Cruz's from 2011.The way teams have adjusted to the deep ball accuracy of Rodgers is to give him the short stuff, Cobb will be the main beneficiary of this and will be the new Welker but faster with more game breaking scores.

You could use this argument to defend anything that hasn't happened yet. I don't think it's productive, however. You're high on him - invest accordingly and good luck with this years title.

 

[greggorymac]

Coop, I don't understand your rationale? You're using % snap count (comparing Jones's ~90% to Cobb's ~60%) to make the argument that the higher the snap count the higher scoring probability? Cobb and Jones play two completely different positions and by nature the slot receiver will not be on the field as much because he is taken out during certain run packages. The real question you need to ask yourself is how is the player used when he is on the field? Cobb's 104 targets to Jones's 98 targets suggests that regardless of the% snap count, they were utilized or looked at by Rogers the same.

I don't think I made that argument once. My argument is - until Cobb gets more 2 WR set work - 2012 was an above baseline year. People are making crazy projections like 105/1350/13 and don't realize that he won't come close to that if he isn't on the field more. He wouldn't have finished where he did last year without 2 injuries.

Again - it could change but it's not a given.

Until Cobb gets more 2 WR set work? Cobb hardly had any 2 WR set work last year (only weeks 8, 14 and 15 when Nelson was injured) and he still had more targets than Jones.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop, I don't understand your rationale? You're using % snap count (comparing Jones's ~90% to Cobb's ~60%) to make the argument that the higher the snap count the higher scoring probability? Cobb and Jones play two completely different positions and by nature the slot receiver will not be on the field as much because he is taken out during certain run packages. The real question you need to ask yourself is how is the player used when he is on the field? Cobb's 104 targets to Jones's 98 targets suggests that regardless of the% snap count, they were utilized or looked at by Rogers the same.

I don't think I made that argument once. My argument is - until Cobb gets more 2 WR set work - 2012 was an above baseline year. People are making crazy projections like 105/1350/13 and don't realize that he won't come close to that if he isn't on the field more. He wouldn't have finished where he did last year without 2 injuries.

Again - it could change but it's not a given.

>Until Cobb gets more 2 WR set work? Cobb hardly had any 2 WR set work last year (only weeks 8, 14 and 15 when Nelson was injured) and he still had more targets than Jones.

That second quote isn't from me. And Cobb getting more than Jones isn't the conversation I am having; I think that's a given. Cobb is going to go top 7-9 in PPR leagues this year; anything I have said is to question that. I never suggested Jones will be more productive than Cobb, or get more targets.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

I can tell from this thread that I definitely won't be owning Cobb anywhere this year the way people are guzzling the Kool Aid. 100+ 1300+ 12/13 TDs? Uhhhhh... Aaron Rodgers doesn't have tunnel vision like that for ANY player, guys. He's going to spread the ball around like he always does. And what does Jordy Nelson have to do to get some respect around here? Feels like he's being written off despite being the WR on the team with BY FAR the best track record of production.

Bottom line: Nelson drafted as a WR2 will be vastly more valuable than Cobb drafted as a WR1. Jones is a journeyman IMO - someone else can overpay for last year's TDs. I also think Finley has finally fallen to where he's good value -- he's not the elite talent that many like to claim, but SOMEONE is catching 12ish TDs in that offense and I'll buy Finley as a lottery ticket if I can't land Gronk / Graham early.

 

[cdubz]

Coop, I don't understand your rationale? You're using % snap count (comparing Jones's ~90% to Cobb's ~60%) to make the argument that the higher the snap count the higher scoring probability? Cobb and Jones play two completely different positions and by nature the slot receiver will not be on the field as much because he is taken out during certain run packages. The real question you need to ask yourself is how is the player used when he is on the field? Cobb's 104 targets to Jones's 98 targets suggests that regardless of the% snap count, they were utilized or looked at by Rogers the same.

I don't think I made that argument once. My argument is - until Cobb gets more 2 WR set work - 2012 was an above baseline year. People are making crazy projections like 105/1350/13 and don't realize that he won't come close to that if he isn't on the field more. He wouldn't have finished where he did last year without 2 injuries.

Again - it could change but it's not a given.

I would agree that level of projection is high. Let's say he gets a 20% bump in targets and keeps his catch % and YPC. 96/1145 sounds about right if he were to stay healthy.

The TDs are always hard to forecast, but 13 does seem high. I took the total yards and total touchdowns over the top 30 WRs last year to get an idea of the yardage:TD relationship and applying that average to 1145 yards would give just over 7 TDs.

96/1145/7

As for the usage argument, why are they considering pulling him from special teams if they do not intend to use him more on offense?

 

[Concept Coop]

As for the usage argument, why are they considering pulling him from special teams if they do not intend to use him more on offense?

They could. There is a very possible scenario that sees Cobb starting every game, in every set, and providing those numbers. My intention is not to deny or downplay that possibility. But there is an another very possible scenario that Cobb’s 2013 season is very close to his 2012 season in terms of totals.

Cobb is listed at 5-10/190. He can be the most talented WR on his team and still not be one of the 2 best suited WRs for the outside. I wouldn’t want him on the outside if I was GB. I’d want to keep him as fresh and healthy as I could and would be perfectly happy with him playing 60% of the snaps.

Cobb could be the next Wes Welker, but that doesn’t mean the Packers are the next NE Patriots, in terms of use. The Patriots played in 3 WR sets a lot more than GB, and when they didn’t, they still kept Welker on the field and used a TE as the X.

 

[Concept Coop]

I think those revised projections are solid, FWIW. I wouldn't be surprised by them at all.

 

[LawFitz]

Coop, I agree with most of what you say, except I'll add that in return leagues, Cobb's value is much higher and well worth the top-ten WR ADP. He was top five last year with the following format: 1 per 10 yds rec, 1 per 20 yds ret, 0.5 PPR. I see no reason, he won't finish top ten again in return yardage leagues. If they take him off returns, it's b/c he's being featured at WR in the sets you so astutely pointed out he was not in last season.

In non-return yardage leagues, I think his ADP inflation is caused by the thought that Cobb could turn out to be a monster as THE featured player in this offense not named Rodgers, with a floor of the numbers projected by cdubz three posts above and a ceiling of those 1300/13 projections. Numbers like that, also as you point out, definitely assume he takes and runs with a full time WR position, ahead of Jones most likely (or due to injury to either of the other two).

So the questions then become... Do you play in a return yardage league? Or perhaps, do you believe that Cobb will ascend to 1a or 1b WR status for Rodgers? Yes to either makes him a very appealing player for this season and beyond.

 

[cdubz]

Coop, I agree with most of what you say, except I'll add that in return leagues, Cobb's value is much higher and well worth the top-ten WR ADP. He was top five last year with the following format: 1 per 10 yds rec, 1 per 20 yds ret, 0.5 PPR. I see no reason, he won't finish top ten again in return yardage leagues. If they take him off returns, it's b/c he's being featured at WR in the sets you so astutely pointed out he was not in last season.

In non-return yardage leagues, I think his ADP inflation is caused by the thought that Cobb could turn out to be a monster as THE featured player in this offense not named Rodgers, with a floor of the numbers projected by cdubz three posts above and a ceiling of those 1300/13 projections. Numbers like that, also as you point out, definitely assume he takes and runs with a full time WR position, ahead of Jones most likely (or due to injury to either of the other two).

So the questions then become... Do you play in a return yardage league? Or perhaps, do you believe that Cobb will ascend to 1a or 1b WR status for Rodgers? Yes to either makes him a very appealing player for this season and beyond.

I would just caution that IF they do take him off returns, his value is going to drop in return yardage leagues by a fair amount. The extra production at WR is not going to come close to making up for the loss of the return production IMHO.

 

[LawFitz]

Coop, I agree with most of what you say, except I'll add that in return leagues, Cobb's value is much higher and well worth the top-ten WR ADP. He was top five last year with the following format: 1 per 10 yds rec, 1 per 20 yds ret, 0.5 PPR. I see no reason, he won't finish top ten again in return yardage leagues. If they take him off returns, it's b/c he's being featured at WR in the sets you so astutely pointed out he was not in last season.

In non-return yardage leagues, I think his ADP inflation is caused by the thought that Cobb could turn out to be a monster as THE featured player in this offense not named Rodgers, with a floor of the numbers projected by cdubz three posts above and a ceiling of those 1300/13 projections. Numbers like that, also as you point out, definitely assume he takes and runs with a full time WR position, ahead of Jones most likely (or due to injury to either of the other two).

So the questions then become... Do you play in a return yardage league? Or perhaps, do you believe that Cobb will ascend to 1a or 1b WR status for Rodgers? Yes to either makes him a very appealing player for this season and beyond.

I would just caution that IF they do take him off returns, his value is going to drop in return yardage leagues by a fair amount. The extra production at WR is not going to come close to making up for the loss of the return production IMHO.

I disagree. I think the only way they take him off returns is to feature him as the new Greg Jennings. They've already hinted openly about such plans, which could take him to monster levels is things really break his way this year.

So it's either similar numbers to last year as a WR3/KR/PR (just checked and he was the #3 WR last year in my league), or

Greg Jennings-like production as the featured WR (or at least 1b to Nelson, with Jones the WR3).

In either scenario, he finishes top ten in return leagues, and with further upside if he becomes Rodgers' primary beneficiary. I suppose there is also the scenario where he's taken off kicks and punts but still only played as a WR3, but I just don't see that one happening.

 

[JPeso]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

 

[cdubz]

Coop, I agree with most of what you say, except I'll add that in return leagues, Cobb's value is much higher and well worth the top-ten WR ADP. He was top five last year with the following format: 1 per 10 yds rec, 1 per 20 yds ret, 0.5 PPR. I see no reason, he won't finish top ten again in return yardage leagues. If they take him off returns, it's b/c he's being featured at WR in the sets you so astutely pointed out he was not in last season.

In non-return yardage leagues, I think his ADP inflation is caused by the thought that Cobb could turn out to be a monster as THE featured player in this offense not named Rodgers, with a floor of the numbers projected by cdubz three posts above and a ceiling of those 1300/13 projections. Numbers like that, also as you point out, definitely assume he takes and runs with a full time WR position, ahead of Jones most likely (or due to injury to either of the other two).

So the questions then become... Do you play in a return yardage league? Or perhaps, do you believe that Cobb will ascend to 1a or 1b WR status for Rodgers? Yes to either makes him a very appealing player for this season and beyond.

I would just caution that IF they do take him off returns, his value is going to drop in return yardage leagues by a fair amount. The extra production at WR is not going to come close to making up for the loss of the return production IMHO.

I disagree. I think the only way they take him off returns is to feature him as the new Greg Jennings. They've already hinted openly about such plans, which could take him to monster levels is things really break his way this year.

So it's either similar numbers to last year as a WR3/KR/PR (just checked and he was the #3 WR last year in my league), or

Greg Jennings-like production as the featured WR (or at least 1b to Nelson, with Jones the WR3).

In either scenario, he finishes top ten in return leagues, and with further upside if he becomes Rodgers' primary beneficiary. I suppose there is also the scenario where he's taken off kicks and punts but still only played as a WR3, but I just don't see that one happening.

I'm not saying he won't still be quite valuable, but in that league I would prefer to have him still return kicks if I owned him.

Based on your scoring, he generated 68.8 fantasy points last year as a returner.

He already put up 80/954/8 last year.

Jenning's best year in terms of catches and yards was 80/1292/9.

Cobb might have more upside on the catches, but doubt on the yardage. I would just rather have him as a 60%-80% offensive player and still return kicks if I owned him in that league. Said another way, no way Cobb is a top 3 WR in that league if he isn't returning kicks.

 

[jonboltz]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

14.1 YPC for Cobb? I'll take the under.

 

[Concept Coop]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

Just a stab - my best guess:

Nelson - 80/1250/12 (277)

Cobb - 85/1000/7 (227) + (21?) = (248)

I see no chance Cobb finishes near 14 YPR. And if he starts on the outside, we need to adjust our catch%, because it will be much lower out of the slot.

 

[JPeso]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

14.1 YPC for Cobb? I'll take the under.

How about the over/under on his points? Take away 60 yards and give him another TD and it's the same bottom line answer at 13.4. Perhaps that is better.

I do expect a wider variety in his route tree this year, and wouldn't believe 12 YPC to be his ceiling because of last season.

 

[Concept Coop]

Coop, I agree with most of what you say, except I'll add that in return leagues, Cobb's value is much higher and well worth the top-ten WR ADP. He was top five last year with the following format: 1 per 10 yds rec, 1 per 20 yds ret, 0.5 PPR. I see no reason, he won't finish top ten again in return yardage leagues. If they take him off returns, it's b/c he's being featured at WR in the sets you so astutely pointed out he was not in last season.

In non-return yardage leagues, I think his ADP inflation is caused by the thought that Cobb could turn out to be a monster as THE featured player in this offense not named Rodgers, with a floor of the numbers projected by cdubz three posts above and a ceiling of those 1300/13 projections. Numbers like that, also as you point out, definitely assume he takes and runs with a full time WR position, ahead of Jones most likely (or due to injury to either of the other two).

So the questions then become... Do you play in a return yardage league? Or perhaps, do you believe that Cobb will ascend to 1a or 1b WR status for Rodgers? Yes to either makes him a very appealing player for this season and beyond.

I don't play in return leagues, so I don't consider that production in my posts.

 

[Concept Coop]

I do expect a wider variety in his route tree this year, and wouldn't believe 12 YPC to be his ceiling because of last season.

He's raw in his routes, undersized, and not particularly strong. If his YPC is 14, I think his owners are in for a disapointing season, fantasy wise. He’s got to be used like Harvin/Welker to be successful. Ask to him to Hakeem Nicks or Julio Jones and he’s a nobody.