Player Spotlight: R. Cobb, J. Jones, J. Nelson, WRs, GB Packers (1 Viewer)

[Concept Coop]

The good news for Cobb owners is that his numbers were much better when he was 2nd or 3rd in snap count - as opposed to 4th. When everyone was healthy, Cobb was around 40-50%, splitting time in the slot, even. When he was 3rd, we was often in the 65%-70% range.

I fully expect him to be 3rd, at least. If that holds, he's likely see 65-70% of the snaps. Plenty enough for him to finish in the top 10-15 in PPR leagues. And that is assuming he doesn't take over for Jones, which I don't think he will. Just too much incentive for GB to keep him fresh, healthy, and away from press coverage.

Having said that, my apologies for beating a dead horse. Just a subject I find interesting.

 

[cdubz]

The good news for Cobb owners is that his numbers were much better when he was 2nd or 3rd in snap count - as opposed to 4th. When everyone was healthy, Cobb was around 40-50%, splitting time in the slot, even. When he was 3rd, we was often in the 65%-70% range.

I fully expect him to be 3rd, at least. If that holds, he's likely see 65-70% of the snaps. Plenty enough for him to finish in the top 10-15 in PPR leagues. And that is assuming he doesn't take over for Jones, which I don't think he will. Just too much incentive for GB to keep him fresh, healthy, and away from press coverage.

Having said that, my apologies for beating a dead horse. Just a subject I find interesting.

I appreciate the voice of reason, I just traded for him in a dynasty league and getting all viewpoints is helpful.

 

[bumpman]

He's raw in his routes, undersized, and not particularly strong. If his YPC is 14, I think his owners are in for a disapointing season, fantasy wise. He’s got to be used like Harvin/Welker to be successful. Ask to him to Hakeem Nicks or Julio Jones and he’s a nobody.

I am surprised to hear that you think his route running is raw. He looked pretty crisp when I watched him this year. Rodgers clearly trusts him, throwing to him often in coverage. I don't think he would have that trust if Cobb didn't run good routes. In any event, Rodgers himself focused on Cobb's route running as one of Cobb's strengths.

"He's very intelligent and deliberate about his preparation," Rodgers said. "He understands soft spots in zones. He's very detailed in his route running. He and Greg were both very similar when they came in."

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/47914/randall-cobb-emerges-as-wr-for-packers

 

[matttyl]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

Pretty darn big numbers there. What are you thinking Rodgers will do in total if his top 3 targets combine for 225/3,100/25?! Those numbers are almost exactly what Russell Wilson did last year throwing to his entire team.

Assuming he'll still use his TEs (Finley, Quarless, Williams), RBs and FBs (Lacy, Franklin, Harris, Green, Kuhn), and other WRs (Boykin, Johnson and the rest) to accumulate at least another 1,500 yards and 15 total TDs, looks like he's in for a career year.

 

[Concept Coop]

I am surprised to hear that you think his route running is raw. He looked pretty crisp when I watched him this year. Rodgers clearly trusts him, throwing to him often in coverage. I don't think he would have that trust if Cobb didn't run good routes. In any event, Rodgers himself focused on Cobb's route running as one of Cobb's strengths.

"He's very intelligent and deliberate about his preparation," Rodgers said. "He understands soft spots in zones. He's very detailed in his route running. He and Greg were both very similar when they came in."

http://espn.go.com/blog/nfcnorth/post/_/id/47914/randall-cobb-emerges-as-wr-for-packers

He played WR for 1 season in college. He played QB in HS. His one season of NFL production was in the slot, where he's often going against zone coverage (see Rodgers quote). I am not suggesting that he is a poor route runner, based on what he was asked to do. But asking him to beat NFL corners deep, one on one, is quite another task.

 

[FF Ninja]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

Pretty darn big numbers there. What are you thinking Rodgers will do in total if his top 3 targets combine for 225/3,100/25?! Those numbers are almost exactly what Russell Wilson did last year throwing to his entire team.

Assuming he'll still use his TEs (Finley, Quarless, Williams), RBs and FBs (Lacy, Franklin, Harris, Green, Kuhn), and other WRs (Boykin, Johnson and the rest) to accumulate at least another 1,500 yards and 15 total TDs, looks like he's in for a career year.

Yeah, his projections are not going to happen, but it is worth noting that ALL the GB WRs last year put up 242/2953/35. So the other WRs will certainly snag some of those stats and they could lean a little more on the TE. GB WR scoring was #1 by a WIDE margin. GB TE scoring finished right in the middle of the pack at #17. In 2011, they finished #9.

 

[King of the Jungle]

Cobb is a stud and has 100 catches written all over him. He will be lined up all over the place and probably have a lighter load in the return game which will be replaced with more passing attempts. He has great hands, moves quicker than most defenders, and has the best QB in the NFL throwing to him. Touchdowns are too difficult to predict however if I was forced to pick three guys that will break the 100 marker for catches he would be on that short list. Anyone who does not think he has a chance to crack the top ten in PPR is underselling him IMO.

 

[FF Ninja]

Cobb is a stud and has 100 catches written all over him. He will be lined up all over the place and probably have a lighter load in the return game which will be replaced with more passing attempts. He has great hands, moves quicker than most defenders, and has the best QB in the NFL throwing to him. Touchdowns are too difficult to predict however if I was forced to pick three guys that will break the 100 marker for catches he would be on that short list. Anyone who does not think he has a chance to crack the top ten in PPR is underselling him IMO.

What if you don't play PPR? A guy with a low ypr and who will probably be the #4 red zone target doesn't carry as much value.

Also, you'd better think he has more than just a chance to crack the top 10 given his ADP is WR10 in PPR. If you are drafting him at that position, you'd better think he is damn near a for top 10 numbers. In the PPR ADP, Fitz is going after Cobb. That's criminal. I think Fitz has a better shot at 90 receptions than Cobb. He's also a better red zone target.

 

[Coeur de Lion]

Cobb is a stud and has 100 catches written all over him. He will be lined up all over the place and probably have a lighter load in the return game which will be replaced with more passing attempts. He has great hands, moves quicker than most defenders, and has the best QB in the NFL throwing to him. Touchdowns are too difficult to predict however if I was forced to pick three guys that will break the 100 marker for catches he would be on that short list. Anyone who does not think he has a chance to crack the top ten in PPR is underselling him IMO.

That's a sucker bet and I'll bet my house on the under. Aaron Rodgers has been starting for 5 years, and the most receptions a single receiver has ever had is exactly 80, which Jennings did once and Cobb did last year. Usually there a a handful of dudes in the 60 - 75 range. Sometimes no one hits even 70 catches. There's too much receiving talent in GB and Rodgers is too good a QB to run the offense through a single player like that.

 

[We Tigers]

Jones had 14 TDs on under 800 yards. Not expecting him to get even half that, which still probably puts my estimation of him a bit below his current ADP. Actually, I think prefer nearly each of the 10 receivers going after him, especially Hilton and Josh Gordon. 50/650/5.

Cobb will be expensive, predictable, and mostly worth it. Very high usage player this season with a lot of upside, though I don't know that I'd take him ahead of the proven vets clustered behind him like AJ, Vincent Jackson, and White. 78/900/7 plus 100-150 rushing yards. Devalue him a bit if those rookie RBs look very good in the preseason.

Nelson is the player I see as the real bargain. He's been nothing but a beast since getting to the top of the receiver rotation. I think he leads in both yardage and scores, though Cobb may make up for that somewhat with rush yards and PPR. 70/1100/10.

In short: I'd be happy to have Cobb on my team (albeit not as my WR1), will actively be trying to get Nelson in all formats, and will mostly avoid Jones.

 

[King of the Jungle]

I do expect a wider variety in his route tree this year, and wouldn't believe 12 YPC to be his ceiling because of last season.

He's raw in his routes, undersized, and not particularly strong. If his YPC is 14, I think his owners are in for a disapointing season, fantasy wise. He’s got to be used like Harvin/Welker to be successful. Ask to him to Hakeem Nicks or Julio Jones and he’s a nobody.

Where is the not particularly strong coming from? Guy runs like the Taz-devil....did 16 reps at 225 in 2011....guessing strength has improved.

 

[Concept Coop]

Where is the not particularly strong coming from? Guy runs like the Taz-devil....did 16 reps at 225 in 2011....guessing strength has improved.

He's not going to out-muscle cornerbacks for the football. The transition from slot to outside is a big one. I don't think it's a given that he will make that transition and be effective in doing so, if he does. I don't put much stock in his bench press numbers, and don't think it's a good indicator of much, functionally, for a WR. I don’t expect everyone to share my opinion, obviously. But those are my thoughts.

ETA: The list of guys under 6'/200 who make a living on the outside is small. For a reason.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Jones had 14 TDs on under 800 yards. Not expecting him to get even half that, which still probably puts my estimation of him a bit below his current ADP. Actually, I think prefer nearly each of the 10 receivers going after him, especially Hilton and Josh Gordon. 50/650/5.

Cobb will be expensive, predictable, and mostly worth it. Very high usage player this season with a lot of upside, though I don't know that I'd take him ahead of the proven vets clustered behind him like AJ, Vincent Jackson, and White. 78/900/7 plus 100-150 rushing yards. Devalue him a bit if those rookie RBs look very good in the preseason.

Nelson is the player I see as the real bargain. He's been nothing but a beast since getting to the top of the receiver rotation. I think he leads in both yardage and scores, though Cobb may make up for that somewhat with rush yards and PPR. 70/1100/10.

In short: I'd be happy to have Cobb on my team (albeit not as my WR1), will actively be trying to get Nelson in all formats, and will mostly avoid Jones.

Did you actually see Jones play last season? He was pretty awesome particularly in the red zone when ARod locked in on him almost every time they got inside the 20 yard line. I don't expect 14 TD's again, but I also wouldn't be surprised. If anything I expect better overall numbers with him getting a full 16 games to start.

I actually think his quotes from the other day are fairly accurate

"I think a 100-catch receiver is gone out of our offense just because Aaron (Rodgers) spreads the ball around so much," he said. "If anybody had a shot to get 100 catches, I'd probably say Randall because he's in the slot and he'll probably get a lot more targets.

"I can see me, Jordy and Randall getting about 80 catches a piece. I can see us all having over 1,000 yards."

The key is the TD's. If Jones remains the red zone #1 option, I can see him being a great value pick and a top 15 WR again. Last season he had 72 receptions and wasn't even starting or getting a ton of targets when Jennings was healthy.

Oh it's also a contract year

 

[cstu]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

Pretty darn big numbers there. What are you thinking Rodgers will do in total if his top 3 targets combine for 225/3,100/25?! Those numbers are almost exactly what Russell Wilson did last year throwing to his entire team.

Assuming he'll still use his TEs (Finley, Quarless, Williams), RBs and FBs (Lacy, Franklin, Harris, Green, Kuhn), and other WRs (Boykin, Johnson and the rest) to accumulate at least another 1,500 yards and 15 total TDs, looks like he's in for a career year.

Last year the top 4 WR's combined for 229/2849/33. Jennings is now gone out of that rotation.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

Pretty darn big numbers there. What are you thinking Rodgers will do in total if his top 3 targets combine for 225/3,100/25?! Those numbers are almost exactly what Russell Wilson did last year throwing to his entire team.

Assuming he'll still use his TEs (Finley, Quarless, Williams), RBs and FBs (Lacy, Franklin, Harris, Green, Kuhn), and other WRs (Boykin, Johnson and the rest) to accumulate at least another 1,500 yards and 15 total TDs, looks like he's in for a career year.

Last year the top 4 WR's combined for 229/2849/33. Jennings is now gone out of that rotation.

Kinda funny, but I actually think a team starting all 3 guys would do well.

 

[We Tigers]

Jones had 14 TDs on under 800 yards. Not expecting him to get even half that, which still probably puts my estimation of him a bit below his current ADP. Actually, I think prefer nearly each of the 10 receivers going after him, especially Hilton and Josh Gordon. 50/650/5.

Cobb will be expensive, predictable, and mostly worth it. Very high usage player this season with a lot of upside, though I don't know that I'd take him ahead of the proven vets clustered behind him like AJ, Vincent Jackson, and White. 78/900/7 plus 100-150 rushing yards. Devalue him a bit if those rookie RBs look very good in the preseason.

Nelson is the player I see as the real bargain. He's been nothing but a beast since getting to the top of the receiver rotation. I think he leads in both yardage and scores, though Cobb may make up for that somewhat with rush yards and PPR. 70/1100/10.

In short: I'd be happy to have Cobb on my team (albeit not as my WR1), will actively be trying to get Nelson in all formats, and will mostly avoid Jones.

Did you actually see Jones play last season? He was pretty awesome particularly in the red zone when ARod locked in on him almost every time they got inside the 20 yard line. I don't expect 14 TD's again, but I also wouldn't be surprised. If anything I expect better overall numbers with him getting a full 16 games to start. I actually think his quotes from the other day are fairly accurate

"I think a 100-catch receiver is gone out of our offense just because Aaron (Rodgers) spreads the ball around so much," he said. "If anybody had a shot to get 100 catches, I'd probably say Randall because he's in the slot and he'll probably get a lot more targets.

"I can see me, Jordy and Randall getting about 80 catches a piece. I can see us all having over 1,000 yards."

The key is the TD's. If Jones remains the red zone #1 option, I can see him being a great value pick and a top 15 WR again. Last season he had 72 receptions and wasn't even starting or getting a ton of targets when Jennings was healthy.

Oh it's also a contract year

I just don't see a rate of a TD every 4.5 receptions being repeatable, especially with Nelson back at full strength. Additionally, four different players have been the leading TD scorer for Rodgers in his 5 seasons as starter. I find it hard to lean on one guy's TD history more than another's in this case.

 

[fightingillini]

Cobb is a stud and has 100 catches written all over him. He will be lined up all over the place and probably have a lighter load in the return game which will be replaced with more passing attempts. He has great hands, moves quicker than most defenders, and has the best QB in the NFL throwing to him. Touchdowns are too difficult to predict however if I was forced to pick three guys that will break the 100 marker for catches he would be on that short list. Anyone who does not think he has a chance to crack the top ten in PPR is underselling him IMO.

What if you don't play PPR? A guy with a low ypr and who will probably be the #4 red zone target doesn't carry as much value.

Also, you'd better think he has more than just a chance to crack the top 10 given his ADP is WR10 in PPR. If you are drafting him at that position, you'd better think he is damn near a for top 10 numbers. In the PPR ADP, Fitz is going after Cobb. That's criminal. I think Fitz has a better shot at 90 receptions than Cobb. He's also a better red zone target.

Majority of leagues are PPR or 1/2 PPR, where Cobb's value is definitely higher.

I disagree that Cobb doesn't carry as much value in non PPR. Remember that Cobb will get some rushing yds that makes up for his lower than average yards per reception. And even if he's the 4th option red zone target, he's going to score enough TDs to be a good fantasy play, since Rodgers is likely going to throw 40 or so TD passes. Also, Cobb may still be a factor in the return game, and many leagues credit the player for return TDs.

While Fitz is clearly more talented than Cobb, I suspect many don't trust Carson Palmer as much as Aaron Rodgers.......just a hunch.

If I am drafting a WR at WR10, I want him to have a shot at top 5 WR numbers.......with Cobb, I have a hard time seeing that unless he can catch 100 passes. So I agree with you that Cobb's ADP of WR10 is too rich for me.

 

[Dreamer]

Cobb - 85 / 1200 / 7; 150 / 1 = 268 PPR, 16.8 PPG

Nelson - 75 / 1100 / 8 = 233 PPR, 14.6 PPG

Jones - 65 / 800 / 10 = 205 PPR, 12.8 PPG

Pretty darn big numbers there. What are you thinking Rodgers will do in total if his top 3 targets combine for 225/3,100/25?! Those numbers are almost exactly what Russell Wilson did last year throwing to his entire team.

Assuming he'll still use his TEs (Finley, Quarless, Williams), RBs and FBs (Lacy, Franklin, Harris, Green, Kuhn), and other WRs (Boykin, Johnson and the rest) to accumulate at least another 1,500 yards and 15 total TDs, looks like he's in for a career year.

Last year the top 4 WR's combined for 229/2849/33. Jennings is now gone out of that rotation.

Kinda funny, but I actually think a team starting all 3 guys would do well.

 

[James Brimacombe]

James Jones is shaping up to be a nice value play this year. I seem to keep drafting him in the early going.

 

[Ghost Rider]

WRs who catch a lot of TDs on not a lot of catches, as Jones did last year where he had 14 TDs on 64 catches, almost always see a drop-off the next year. I am reminded of Az-Zahir Hakim catching 11 TDs on 39 catches in 2001 and then dropping off to 4 TDs on 37 catches the following year. I am not saying Jones will have that much of a drop-off, but unless you see him catching more passes and getting more yards, his TDs will likely drop off to single digits. In other words, do not draft him expecting 14 TDs again.

 

[Beerguzzler]

WRs who catch a lot of TDs on not a lot of catches, as Jones did last year where he had 14 TDs on 64 catches, almost always see a drop-off the next year. I am reminded of Az-Zahir Hakim catching 11 TDs on 39 catches in 2001 and then dropping off to 4 TDs on 37 catches the following year. I am not saying Jones will have that much of a drop-off, but unless you see him catching more passes and getting more yards, his TDs will likely drop off to single digits. In other words, do not draft him expecting 14 TDs again.

Not even close to a similar comparison and when did 64 receptions become that low a number? He should improve on that number anyways being the fulltime starter now. I could see the arguement if Jennings would have been retained, but if anything his receptions should increase this season. Unless the Packers are suddenly going to become a run first team, in which case it made no sense to give ARod the richest contract in league history. As long as he keeps slinging the ball, I'm confident all 3 WR's will see significant totals this year. If Jones remains the top option in the red zone, he has a chance of putting up double digit TD's as well. Someone has to catch the 30+ TD's that Rodgers will throw this year.

 

[matttyl]

WRs who catch a lot of TDs on not a lot of catches, as Jones did last year where he had 14 TDs on 64 catches, almost always see a drop-off the next year. I am reminded of Az-Zahir Hakim catching 11 TDs on 39 catches in 2001 and then dropping off to 4 TDs on 37 catches the following year. I am not saying Jones will have that much of a drop-off, but unless you see him catching more passes and getting more yards, his TDs will likely drop off to single digits. In other words, do not draft him expecting 14 TDs again.

Not even close to a similar comparison and when did 64 receptions become that low a number? He should improve on that number anyways being the fulltime starter now. I could see the arguement if Jennings would have been retained, but if anything his receptions should increase this season. Unless the Packers are suddenly going to become a run first team, in which case it made no sense to give ARod the richest contract in league history. As long as he keeps slinging the ball, I'm confident all 3 WR's will see significant totals this year. If Jones remains the top option in the red zone, he has a chance of putting up double digit TD's as well. Someone has to catch the 30+ TD's that Rodgers will throw this year.

Um, he was a full-time starter last year. He had 16 starts in 16 games, that's "full-time" to me.

 

[Ghost Rider]

Right. When you factor in the time Jennings and Nelson missed last year, Jones was getting full-time snaps and targets.

I see Jones falling back to 7-8 TDs, with Nelson and Cobb both around 10-12, the TEs getting 5-6 and the RBs and WR4 getting a few.

 

[matttyl]

Finely better get more than that! He's my TE#1!

 

[KellysHeroes]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

 

[matttyl]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

D Thomas? Harvin's locked up in Seattle with Wilson long-term....

 

[Beerguzzler]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

D Thomas? Harvin's locked up in Seattle with Wilson long-term....

Thomas can revert to #### once Manning retires.

 

[Concept Coop]

WRs who catch a lot of TDs on not a lot of catches, as Jones did last year where he had 14 TDs on 64 catches, almost always see a drop-off the next year. I am reminded of Az-Zahir Hakim catching 11 TDs on 39 catches in 2001 and then dropping off to 4 TDs on 37 catches the following year. I am not saying Jones will have that much of a drop-off, but unless you see him catching more passes and getting more yards, his TDs will likely drop off to single digits. In other words, do not draft him expecting 14 TDs again.

Not even close to a similar comparison and when did 64 receptions become that low a number? He should improve on that number anyways being the fulltime starter now. I could see the arguement if Jennings would have been retained, but if anything his receptions should increase this season. Unless the Packers are suddenly going to become a run first team, in which case it made no sense to give ARod the richest contract in league history. As long as he keeps slinging the ball, I'm confident all 3 WR's will see significant totals this year. If Jones remains the top option in the red zone, he has a chance of putting up double digit TD's as well. Someone has to catch the 30+ TD's that Rodgers will throw this year.

Um, he was a full-time starter last year. He had 16 starts in 16 games, that's "full-time" to me.

Jones was the 3rd guy. If he started 16 games it is only because GB opened games in a 3 WR set. Jennings and Nelson were the clear starters when healthy.

 

[lbouchard]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

D Thomas? Harvin's locked up in Seattle with Wilson long-term....

Thomas can revert to #### once Manning retires.

He wasn't #### with Tebow, the worst QB in the NFL, so I doubt he'll go to #### when Manning retires.

 

[KellysHeroes]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

D Thomas? Harvin's locked up in Seattle with Wilson long-term....

Thomas can revert to #### once Manning retires.

I wouldn't say he'll revert to poop, but there'll def be caution when Manning retires. Where as we already seen how GB will use Cobb I want to see the usage of Harvin in Seattle and how much more they throw the ball, factor in PH's injury history and knucklhead history and yes I am pulling the trigger on Cobb over those 2 in dynasty.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

D Thomas? Harvin's locked up in Seattle with Wilson long-term....

Thomas can revert to #### once Manning retires.

He wasn't #### with Tebow, the worst QB in the NFL, so I doubt he'll go to #### when Manning retires.

He had 550 yards and 4 TD's with Tebow at QB (that is considered #### in fantasy). 283 yards as a rookie. Yes, he was #### without Manning throwing him the rock. Most WR's are #### if they don't have a QB that can get them the ball. Look at what happened to Bowe last season.

That's one of the reason's why I am so bullish on Jones/Cobb/Nelson(to a lesser extent) this season and going forward. I have always and will always take on WR's in prolific passing offenses vs. equal options in lesser offenses.

 

[Beerguzzler]

Cobb at WR7-10, that better be dynasty ranking... no way am I buying him at that price. Now in dynasty, after Calvin / Juilo / AJG / Dez theres really no one else I want more than Cobb. Him and Rodgers are going to be hooking up for a long time.

D Thomas? Harvin's locked up in Seattle with Wilson long-term....

Thomas can revert to #### once Manning retires.

I wouldn't say he'll revert to poop, but there'll def be caution when Manning retires. Where as we already seen how GB will use Cobb I want to see the usage of Harvin in Seattle and how much more they throw the ball, factor in PH's injury history and knucklhead history and yes I am pulling the trigger on Cobb over those 2 in dynasty.

I personally think Harvin will be over drafted. That's a run first team and Harvin hasn't been the healthiest guy in his career. Too much risk IMO for where he'll likely be drafted. That being said, he could also put up very good numbers if he stays healthy. Just not sure how consistent he will be on a weekly basis. Seems like a feast or famine situation if the team is running the ball well.

 

[cstu]

Right. When you factor in the time Jennings and Nelson missed last year, Jones was getting full-time snaps and targets.

I see Jones falling back to 7-8 TDs, with Nelson and Cobb both around 10-12, the TEs getting 5-6 and the RBs and WR4 getting a few.

Jones did ok even in the games Jennings, Nelson and Cobb all played in. With Jennings gone it shouldn't be hard for him to reach or even best his catches and yards from last season. TD's are tough to predict, but he does have 21 TD's on 102 catches the past two years so I'm going to put the O/U on his TD's at 10.

 

[tdmills]

Trouble in paradise?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Randall-Cobb-struggling-with-his-hands.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

 

[Concept Coop]

Trouble in paradise?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Randall-Cobb-struggling-with-his-hands.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not too worried about his hands, but it does highlight the fact that Cobb has been playing WR for a very short amount of time. It's part of the reason I don't think his transition to the outside will be as smooth as most seem to think.

 

[meyerj31]

Trouble in paradise?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Randall-Cobb-struggling-with-his-hands.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not too worried about his hands, but it does highlight the fact that Cobb has been playing WR for a very short amount of time. It's part of the reason I don't think his transition to the outside will be as smooth as most seem to think.

Since when is Cobb transitioning to the outside? He plays slot.

GB makes a habit of training all the WRs to play every position but I don't think he'll be split out wide very often.

 

[tdmills]

Trouble in paradise?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Randall-Cobb-struggling-with-his-hands.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

I'm not too worried about his hands, but it does highlight the fact that Cobb has been playing WR for a very short amount of time. It's part of the reason I don't think his transition to the outside will be as smooth as most seem to think.

I'm not overly worried either, but I think people need to pump the brakes a little on thinking Cobb is the next welker.

 

[Concept Coop]

I'm not overly worried either, but I think people need to pump the brakes a little on thinking Cobb is the next welker.

I agree. And even if he is, that doesn't mean GB is the next NE, in terms of slot utilization.

 

[Concept Coop]

Since when is Cobb transitioning to the outside? He plays slot.
GB makes a habit of training all the WRs to play every position but I don't think he'll be split out wide very often.

It was once a common belief on this forum, that Cobb would replace Jennings - play in 2WR sets and move to the slot in 3WR sets. There are plenty who have suggested that Cobb will eventually supplant Jones, even recently.

 

[greggorymac]

Since when is Cobb transitioning to the outside? He plays slot.
GB makes a habit of training all the WRs to play every position but I don't think he'll be split out wide very often.

It was once a common belief on this forum, that Cobb would replace Jennings - play in 2WR sets and move to the slot in 3WR sets. There are plenty who have suggested that Cobb will eventually supplant Jones, even recently.

I think this is where some of it may come from...

Packers coach Mike McCarthy confirmed he expects Randall Cobb to take on a larger role in the offense.
Cobb has put together a strong offseason and is expected to see playing time both on the outside and in the slot. "He'll be given opportunities, there's no question about that," McCarthy said. "I think he definitely has a lot more growth in front of him. It's exciting."


Source: Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel
Jul 23 - 8:25 PM

 

[Concept Coop]

I think this is where some of it may come from...

[SIZE=10.5pt]The "outside" quote seems to be coming from the reporter. I do think the Packers will look for ways to get Cobb the ball, and they have been consistent in suggesting such. I am just not in the crowd that thinks he’s likely to be a top 2 WR on the outside. I don’t think he’s ready to beat #1 corners on the outside and deal with double teams consistently. He’s much more in his element in this slot – finding zones and getting the ball in space. [/SIZE]

[SIZE=10.5pt]They’ll use more 3 WR sets, design more plays for him, etc. I think he could repeat his 2012 numbers. I am just not projecting more than that, myself. [/SIZE]

 

[LawFitz]

One question is whether the drops were from slot or outside routes. If from the slot, then I'm not as worried. Inside you have to be more aware of defenders, sometimes even at the sake of "letting the ball cross your eyes" as you prepare to make a football move to avoid a big hit. Drops like that I can understand a lot more than stone hands outside. Either way though, I've seen enough of Cobbler not to be worried about his hands. 90+ catches is realistic for him as a focal point in this offense.

 

[Concept Coop]

90+ catches is realistic for him as a focal point in this offense.

What % of the offensive snaps do you expect him to be on the field?

 

[TheFootballJesus]

What do people think of Jordy Nelson this year? WIth Greg Jennings gone I think he's in line for a boost in targets given he's now their best outside wide receiver...even in an injury plagued year he was on pace for almost 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. IMO he's the best value of the three receivers this year.

 

[LawFitz]

90+ catches is realistic for him as a focal point in this offense.

What % of the offensive snaps do you expect him to be on the field?

When/if healthy,

85-95% of 3+ WR formations.

35-65% of 2 WR formations. This is the big ???, I know. I think if he gets to 50% he'll hit 90 catches, and if he gets to 65+% he'll get 100+ catches. JMHO.

 

[cstu]

What do people think of Jordy Nelson this year? WIth Greg Jennings gone I think he's in line for a boost in targets given he's now their best outside wide receiver...even in an injury plagued year he was on pace for almost 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. IMO he's the best value of the three receivers this year.

I'm very high on him. IMO there's nothing keeping him from a top 10 season except injury.

 

[silentcoach]

Take a look at nelson's stats when Jennings did not play last year. Not bad, no bad.

 

[sho nuff]

Trouble in paradise?

http://www.nationalfootballpost.com/Randall-Cobb-struggling-with-his-hands.html?utm_source=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

The Packers in general struggled with drops last year (including Cobb).

 

[sho nuff]

What do people think of Jordy Nelson this year? WIth Greg Jennings gone I think he's in line for a boost in targets given he's now their best outside wide receiver...even in an injury plagued year he was on pace for almost 1000 yards and 10 touchdowns. IMO he's the best value of the three receivers this year.

I love Nelson this year.

While so much focus continues to be on drafting Cobb...and IMO...someone will overpay for 2012's TDs from Jones.

 

[Concept Coop]

90+ catches is realistic for him as a focal point in this offense.

What % of the offensive snaps do you expect him to be on the field?

When/if healthy,

85-95% of 3+ WR formations.

35-65% of 2 WR formations. This is the big ???, I know. I think if he gets to 50% he'll hit 90 catches, and if he gets to 65+% he'll get 100+ catches. JMHO.

This is my concern. I'd expect close to 100% of the 3 WR sets, but not many snaps in traditional 2WR sets. Maybe 60-65% of the total offensive snaps.

I don't see 100 catch potential, if this is the case. Only 5 WRs caught 100 balls last year (only 2 in 2011, and 2 in 2010), and all of them were in on 90%+ of their teams snaps. All 5 got between 28-39% of their teams targets. Cobb got 17% last year.

He caught 5.5 balls/game last year, playing an increased role with Jennings and Jordy missing time. I think that is his absolute ceiling, assuming health, for 2013. I think 80 is realistic and would be a very good number for him.

We'll see what GB can do to get him the ball more, and of course I could very easily be wrong. But, again, the math isn't adding up to me.