Player Spotlight: Randy McMichael (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy McMichael, TE, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Randy McMichael Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[BigRed]

oh wtf

McMichael is the kind of guy who doesn't generally dazzle but quietly puts up above average stats each year. Course his QB situation hasn't exactly helped. Expect more of the same. I would take him on the cheap in our auction league but wouldn't try to win even a small bidding war.

 

[Musesboy]

The Dolphins have not had a strong passing game since Dan Marino retired. Since that happened, the team has finished 30th, 20th, 27th, 26th, 20th and 17th in total passing yards. After struggling with Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley and Gus Frerotte, the team finally made the decision to improve things and Daunte Culpepper was signed.

Culpepper should be a huge upgrade. In fact, the Dolphins have essentially been starting a backup quality QB for the last six years. Culpepper has averaged 252 passing yards and 1.69 TDs per game in his 80 starts. He has never failed to complete 60% of his passes in any season and averages 64.4%. Over the last six seasons, the Dolphins have averaged 197.6 passing yards and 1.16 TDs per game, with a 56.4% completion rate. There is clearly the potential for a significant increase in production for the entire passing game with Culpepper at QB.

It is by no means certain that Culpepper will be ready by Week 1, but the early signs are encouraging. I believe that he will make it and my current projections are:

302/480 3450 yards 20 TDs 18 INTs

65 rushes 325 yards 4 TDs

So how will this affect McMichael? Well, the passing yardage is almost exactly what Miami achieved last year in their most productive season in the last six years. McMichael has proven that he can be a very effective receiver. He isn't in the elite class and will not make as many long gains as those players, but he does have some speed. 13.1% of his catches have turned into gains of 20+ yards. He is a big part of the Dolphins' passing game and has been targeted over 100 times in each of the last two seasons. More importantly for fantasy purposes, McMichael was the top TE in red zone targets last year with 19.

I expect the Dolphins to do well this year, especially in the passing game. McMichael will have the chance to post his best numbers since joining the league.

Prediction

64 receptions 740 yards 5 TDs

 

[Bri]

55 catches 600 yards 5 TDs

Randy McMichael is an interesting player because he makes great trade bait in fantasy football leagues. You know(as much as we ever do) that he'll start the season strong and then his stats almost come to a halt. It's a great idea to trade him after his hot start.

Some examples-

2004, his best year with 791 yards:

42 catches for 535 yards came in the first half of the season. 31 catches for 256 yards came in the second half of the season. 3 Touchdowns in the first half, just one in the second half.

2003

29 catches for 392 yards in the first half of the season. 20 catches for 206 yards in the second half of the season. 2 Touchdowns in the first half, zero in the second.

2002, rookie year:

26 catches for 339 yards in the first half of the season. 13 catches for 146 yards in the second half of the season. 4 Touchdowns in the first half, zero in the second half.

2005

28 catches for 271 yards in the first half of the season. 32 catches for 312 yards in the second half of the season. This appears to be a normal split but if you consider his hot start lasted just one more week the numbers are 35 catches for 352 yards for the first half and 25 catches for 231 yards in the second half. A very similar difference to the seasons mentioned above.

4 Touchdowns in the first half, just 1 Touchdown in the second half.

In total:

first half of the season: 125 catches for 1537 yards 13 TDs 356.7 points in PPR FF

second half of the season: 96 catches for 920 yards 2 TDs 200 points in PPR FF

Difference:31 catches for 607 yards 11 TDs and a 156.7 PPR FF difference.

The Dolphins play in the AFC East with the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and New York Jets, all cold weather teams. Randy has never scored a Touchdown in temperatures under 40 degrees. On top of that, he's never scored a Touchdown in December yet has 7 Touchdowns in September.

 

[Musesboy]

55 catches 600 yards 5 TDs

Randy McMichael is an interesting player because he makes great trade bait in fantasy football leagues. You know(as much as we ever do) that he'll start the season strong and then his stats almost come to a halt. It's a great idea to trade him after his hot start.

Some examples-

2004, his best year with 791 yards:

42 catches for 535 yards came in the first half of the season. 31 catches for 256 yards came in the second half of the season. 3 Touchdowns in the first half, just one in the second half.

2003

29 catches for 392 yards in the first half of the season. 20 catches for 206 yards in the second half of the season. 2 Touchdowns in the first half, zero in the second.

2002, rookie year:

26 catches for 339 yards in the first half of the season. 13 catches for 146 yards in the second half of the season. 4 Touchdowns in the first half, zero in the second half.

2005

28 catches for 271 yards in the first half of the season. 32 catches for 312 yards in the second half of the season. This appears to be a normal split but if you consider his hot start lasted just one more week the numbers are 35 catches for 352 yards for the first half and 25 catches for 231 yards in the second half. A very similar difference to the seasons mentioned above.

4 Touchdowns in the first half, just 1 Touchdown in the second half.

In total:

first half of the season: 125 catches for 1537 yards 13 TDs 356.7 points in PPR FF

second half of the season: 96 catches for 920 yards 2 TDs 200 points in PPR FF

Difference:31 catches for 607 yards 11 TDs and a 156.7 PPR FF difference.

The Dolphins play in the AFC East with the Buffalo Bills, New England Patriots, and New York Jets, all cold weather teams. Randy has never scored a Touchdown in temperatures under 40 degrees. On top of that, he's never scored a Touchdown in December yet has 7 Touchdowns in September.

 

[Purpulhippo999]

the next antonio gates, now that he has culpepper throwing to him

70, 950, 8

this can also ties into chris chambers and ronnie brown, both of whom will put up HUGE numbers this year with Cpep at the helm

 

[rzrback77]

Lots of nice info above in only a few posts. Randy McMichael has been annually consistent (not game to game consistent) for his entire career in Miami. According to his FBG player page, he has these stats:

02 39 catches for 485 and 4 TDs finishing 9th TE

03 49 catches for 598 and 2 TDs finishing 8th TE

04 73 catches for 791 and 4 TDs finishing 5th TE

05 60 catches for 582 and 5 TDs finishing 8th TE

In 06, he has a new QB, Daunte Culpepper, a difficult projection himself. But, since we are predicting, here goes.

I think that Culpepper, similar to Palmer will be brought along slowly. He will focus on avoiding the hit and choose to throw to the outlets (RB Ronnie Brown and TE McMichael) often. He has a history of throwing to the TE. In 2004, he and Wiggins teamed up for 71 receptions for 705 yards and 4 TDs.

I think that with McMichael's previous success in Miami, he should be considered an improvement over Wiggins and could do much better than this benchmark. With his current ADP of 86 (and dropping from 82 previously) for the TE8, he could be a very nice bargain.

In some leagues, the TE position is often overlooked and he could fall to even the tenth round and be great value. Considering Bri's earlier post, if you take two TEs (one with an early bye week), you possibly could trade McMichael for a nice WR #2 after the other TEs early bye.

Projection 70 catches for 730 yards and 6 TDs

Comparing my projection to FBGs for TEs, I see that McMichael could finish in the top five. Not sure if you would be willing to count on the second half swwon if he and Culpepper build a strong bond early on.

 

[Bri]

Not sure if you would be willing to count on the second half swoon if he and Culpepper build a strong bond early on.

I think this is a Q to me, not sure. I would point out that McMichael has had a different QB fairly often in his short career and that hasn't seemed to change anything. While Daunte is clearly more talented than the previous QBs, he's not a QB that throws to the TE a ton. Wiggins best year was when the WRs were hurt "off an on" all year long. While Chambers is not as talented as Moss(who is?) he and Booker are sure to get alot of work. Saban and Co. also seem to like Wes Welker's hustle and surprisingly he was a more effective rookie WR than most of the "name" WRs drafted highly last year.

 

[Yitbos69]

Good post bri

With the upgrade at QB I see his #'s increase about 20% from last season.

70/700/6

 

[Cool in the pocket]

IMHO, TE has great depth this year and could easily be treated as QB's--wait and then wait some more. Bri and Muses both had great posts above concerning McMicheal and his Jekyll and Hyde routine--hot starts, cool finishes. While Culpepper seems like an upgrade at QB (and I agree that it is), we have to remember Daunte is going to a new team with a new system coming off a devastating injury. Couple this with something I regard as pretty important--Linehan is gone too. We'll see what Mularkey brings to the table for the offense, but he wasn't inspiring as a HC in Buffalo. Even though Daunte is ahead of schedule in his rehab, I expect him to be a little out of sync early on as he gets accustomed to all that is new including the Miami heat. As Bri noted, McMichael tends to start off strong and fade and has yet to score a TD in December, but has 7 in September. Everything I see points to a slow start for the Miami O and thus I see McMichael having a slow start which translates to a small slide back. With the depth at the TE position, he has upside, but I see a lower floor than some of those being drafted around his current ADP, so I'll probabaly be passing on Randy.

51 catches, 525 yards, 5 TD's

 

[mlball77]

I feel Randy's numbers will probably be on par or maybe a touch better than what he posted last year. Overall, I would think the MIA passing game should improve at least a little bit.

Recs: 60

Rec Yds: 615

TDs: 5

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

64 receptions 740 yards 5 TDs

Actual

62 receptions 640 yards 3 TDs

Considering the performance and subsequent benching of Culpepper, this projection was closer than I would have expected. We all thought McMichael would get a couple more TDs with Culpepper leading the team. My draft strategy usually sees me take an elite TE earlier in the draft and I didn't end up drafting McMichael in any league.

The Dolphins have not had a strong passing game since Dan Marino retired. Since that happened, the team has finished 30th, 20th, 27th, 26th, 20th and 17th in total passing yards. After struggling with Jay Fiedler, A.J. Feeley and Gus Frerotte, the team finally made the decision to improve things and Daunte Culpepper was signed.

Culpepper should be a huge upgrade. In fact, the Dolphins have essentially been starting a backup quality QB for the last six years. Culpepper has averaged 252 passing yards and 1.69 TDs per game in his 80 starts. He has never failed to complete 60% of his passes in any season and averages 64.4%. Over the last six seasons, the Dolphins have averaged 197.6 passing yards and 1.16 TDs per game, with a 56.4% completion rate. There is clearly the potential for a significant increase in production for the entire passing game with Culpepper at QB.

It is by no means certain that Culpepper will be ready by Week 1, but the early signs are encouraging. I believe that he will make it and my current projections are:

302/480 3450 yards 20 TDs 18 INTs

65 rushes 325 yards 4 TDs

So how will this affect McMichael? Well, the passing yardage is almost exactly what Miami achieved last year in their most productive season in the last six years. McMichael has proven that he can be a very effective receiver. He isn't in the elite class and will not make as many long gains as those players, but he does have some speed. 13.1% of his catches have turned into gains of 20+ yards. He is a big part of the Dolphins' passing game and has been targeted over 100 times in each of the last two seasons. More importantly for fantasy purposes, McMichael was the top TE in red zone targets last year with 19.

I expect the Dolphins to do well this year, especially in the passing game. McMichael will have the chance to post his best numbers since joining the league.

Prediction

64 receptions 740 yards 5 TDs