Player Spotlight: Randy Moss (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Randy Moss, WR, Oakland Raiders

Player Page Link: Randy Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[TwinTurbo]

Moss should play healthier this year and Aaron Brooks should be a slight upgrade over Kerry Collins. However, I don't like Moss to crack the top 5 WR. I think he will put up numbers in the #7-10 tier.

I project: 79 rec, 1200 yds, 10 TD

 

[DOVCommish]

It's hard to trust Moss at this point, so I'll agree and say top ten is more reasonable than top 5. Brooks can air it out and with garbage time alone both will have value: Moss as a low-tier #1/high #2 and Brooks as a bottom tier starter in a 12-team league.

 

[cscmtp]

If Moss could learn to take care of his body, and not pull his hammy every year, i think he WOULD be a lock for top 5. But recent history says he'll come up lame at some point, and still play at 60%. :(

 

[perry147]

Moss should play healthier this year and Aaron Brooks should be a slight upgrade over Kerry Collins. However, I don't like Moss to crack the top 5 WR. I think he will put up numbers in the #7-10 tier.

I project: 79 rec, 1200 yds, 10 TD

I think the yards are a little bit high but this is solid.

 

[TwinTurbo]

The thing that really stood out to me last year with Moss was his lack of consistency with his game effort & intensity. I did admire him for playing through the injuries, but he looked downright lazy in many of the games. He just seems to shut it down when he's not directly involved in the play. Maybe it was due to not being 100%, but this will be his 9th year in the league. His attitude is not going to change. What you see is what you get with Moss. And you just don't see the same hunger with Moss as you do with other guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and even TO.

 

[The Finist]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

 

[phillymatrix]

I see Moss as a top five wideout this season. I don't see the Raider defense as being very improved. Playing from behind will force Oakland out of their run first philosophy. I'm thinking 1,300 yds,12tds would be more than reachable for Moss if he can remain healthy. I've seen him going early 3rd rd in early mocks. I believe he will surpass the projections I have down but would be more than pleased if he achieved what I have projected.

 

[perry147]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

 

[diesel7982]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

Thats a strange rationalization.You are telling me that the # of TDs that a #1 WR can score while being thrown to by Aaron Brooks is 11?

And this is a firm limit despite the differences in offensive support, philsophy, coaching staff, and talent of the WR from Brooks' time in New Orleans?

 

[perry147]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

Thats a strange rationalization.You are telling me that the # of TDs that a #1 WR can score while being thrown to by Aaron Brooks is 11?

And this is a firm limit despite the differences in offensive support, philsophy, coaching staff, and talent of the WR from Brooks' time in New Orleans?

With Brooks I think you get a limited package with ability as wel as attitude and looking at history of his #1 WR is valid and compelled with the other factors like playing environment not to mention the injury history of Moss and I think that forecasting 14 TD's is high.

 

[The Finist]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

Thats a strange rationalization.You are telling me that the # of TDs that a #1 WR can score while being thrown to by Aaron Brooks is 11?

And this is a firm limit despite the differences in offensive support, philsophy, coaching staff, and talent of the WR from Brooks' time in New Orleans?

I also think that is some very strange rationale.

 

[diesel7982]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

Thats a strange rationalization.You are telling me that the # of TDs that a #1 WR can score while being thrown to by Aaron Brooks is 11?

And this is a firm limit despite the differences in offensive support, philsophy, coaching staff, and talent of the WR from Brooks' time in New Orleans?

With Brooks I think you get a limited package with ability as wel as attitude and looking at history of his #1 WR is valid and compelled with the other factors like playing environment not to mention the injury history of Moss and I think that forecasting 14 TD's is high.

I agree with the bolded part, but you are taking an effect and miscasting it as a cause.

 

[perry147]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

Thats a strange rationalization.You are telling me that the # of TDs that a #1 WR can score while being thrown to by Aaron Brooks is 11?

And this is a firm limit despite the differences in offensive support, philsophy, coaching staff, and talent of the WR from Brooks' time in New Orleans?

With Brooks I think you get a limited package with ability as wel as attitude and looking at history of his #1 WR is valid and compelled with the other factors like playing environment not to mention the injury history of Moss and I think that forecasting 14 TD's is high.

I agree with the bolded part, but you are taking an effect and miscasting it as a cause.

Hey I sell more icecream in summertime.

 

[cstu]

I expect Moss to re-establish himself this year.

90 rec. 1332 yards and 14 Tds.

Joe Horn scored 11 in 2004 his best season with Brooks at QB therefore I do not think the #1 WR with Brooks at QB will be able to score 14 TDs. And remember Brooks will now be playing outdoors and not in indoors in the superdome - If the superdome is even ready by that time.

Thats a strange rationalization.You are telling me that the # of TDs that a #1 WR can score while being thrown to by Aaron Brooks is 11?

And this is a firm limit despite the differences in offensive support, philsophy, coaching staff, and talent of the WR from Brooks' time in New Orleans?

With Brooks I think you get a limited package with ability as wel as attitude and looking at history of his #1 WR is valid and compelled with the other factors like playing environment not to mention the injury history of Moss and I think that forecasting 14 TD's is high.

I agree - 14 TD's is high for any WR let alone one that who seems to be past his peak. I don't think not expecting Moss to get 14 TD's should have anything to do with how many TD's Horn caught with Brooks as QB though.

 

[Blackjacks]

If Joe Horn can get 11 td's I definetly think Moss COULD get 14. To say he's out of his prime is just plain silly. Randy was healthy the four games of the season, I think everyone would agree with that. While healthy he had 466 yards and 2 td's in 4 games. That's on pace to have 1872 yards throughout the whole season, I wouldn't say that's what I'm expecting out of him but when healthy those are #'s you could get out of him. If healthy is really what you have to be worried, if healthy top 5, no doubt. But unfortunetly you have to worry above the past injury problems and the high chances of them raising their heads again. I'm going to put 2 different projections out here for him one being if he's healthy and the other if he isn't. If healthy though make no doubt about it he's still a top 3 talent and Brooks going there is a good thing for his ff value. Remember how good he made C-Pepp look.

15 games played (6 games injured) 58 catches 950 yards 8 td's

16 games played (completely healthy) 84 catches 1400 yards 13 td's

 

[Dancing Bear]

Until the New Orleans incident in 2004 Randy Moss did not miss a single game in over 6 years. Then in two sequential years he is mysteriously injured on two similar plays; in each play he pulls a muscle during contact and falling instead of sustaining other types of potential injuries.

In fact his iron-man starting thing is what caused him to come back too soon in both 2004 and 2005. He should have taken 6 weeks off in 2004 to heal instead of pretending to play and decoying ... It hurt the team on the short-term and long-term. Last year was the same. In the 11 weeks after his injury in 2005 he was only Randy Moss in 2 of them [weeks 10 and 17].

This brings up two interesting questions.

a) Why is he sustaining pulled muscles in strange contact plays and not while running?

b) Why is he being allowed to return without being fully healed?

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

60 catches, 1000 yards, 11 TDs.

 

[radballs]

80 receptions, 1,240 yards, 12 TDs

 

[chewybip]

collins and the injury were the problems.

low side is 1100 yds, 12 tds.

 

[Cookiemonster]

To start, let me list Randy's career averages, followed by his healthy averages in bold.

Games: 14.9 Catches: 79.25 Yards: 1,268 Ave: 16 TDs: 12.25

.............16...................91.2.............1,412.4.....15.5.....12

I left out his rookie season as that was the only other healthy season in which he did not start all 16 games. That being said, what do you expect from Randy this year? Healthy or banged up? In his defense, I watched every game the Raiders played last year and Moss was indeed electric until he got busted up vs. the Chargers. Even by week 17, he only looked about 80-85% to me. My point is that he was on an amazing pace before injury, and I don't believe the Viking fans that like to claim that he is not the Randy Moss that he was in '03.

Factors to concider this year; Brooks throws a nicer deep ball than Collins and has the ability to buy a little more time in the pocket than Collins allowing Moss more time to work deep and come back for the ball. This is what Moss does well, not running underneath routes and gaining YAC. Big +! O-line play will improve under Art Shell. Moss' production did not suffer during the years he played opposite Chris Carter so you can not deduce that Porter's presence will hamper Moss' output.

Big -'s include a 1st year system, not just for Moss but for the entire offense. Brooks has reportedly began to build a strong rapport w/ Porter. Brooks has shown a comfortability w/ his TEs. Collins would not even look in C.Anderson's direction last year, so expect catches to be eaten up by Porter and Anderson (though this may increase YPC and TDs).

In the end, Moss has proven to be productive regardless of QB and supporting cast. The only knock you can put on him is that he has battled injuries in consecutive years and did not seem to battle them very hard or recover very quickly. You decide the risk factor involved with his health - I'm giving him the benefit of the doubt.

87 receptions for 1,392 @ 16 yds/rec and 12 TDs.

One more note, Jordan is the only running threat on the Raiders, and should he go down, expect 5 or 6 in the box. If this happens, trade Randy!

 

[jurb26]

Randy Moss was once said to have had his days in the top 3 or 5 over heading into 2003 and the guy flat exploded back onto the seen with over 1600 yds and 17 TDs. The same will happen this year so long as the fluke injuries stop. Moss will lead many teams to victory this year given his likely ADP.

82 rec, 1400 yds, 18 TDs

 

[Buttmonkey]

The thing that really stood out to me last year with Moss was his lack of consistency with his game effort & intensity. I did admire him for playing through the injuries, but he looked downright lazy in many of the games. He just seems to shut it down when he's not directly involved in the play. Maybe it was due to not being 100%, but this will be his 9th year in the league. His attitude is not going to change. What you see is what you get with Moss. And you just don't see the same hunger with Moss as you do with other guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and even TO.

OMG, this same tired argument. Geez, come up with something new. Moss produces game in and game out - injury is the only thing that slows him down.

 

[Phlash]

100/1600/18

 

[Frank Black]

Many of you know how I feel about Moss. His days as a season end elite WR are done. When healthy, he can put up great numbers, but his price tag is too high to draft on his PPG potential.

It's time to think about Moss in the same breath as Warner, F. Taylor, and other players who, in their prime put up great PPG, but were hurt too often to put up great season end numbers. End the end, for most drafters, there will be better prospects on the draft board than Moss, when you are looking for a good #1 WR.

I won't give projections, because they are virtually useless. Unlike TO, who can consistently put up great numbers when playing hurt, Moss can't produce great numbers when he's hurt. However, when Moss is healthy, he can put up monstrous numbers, which creates a deceptive season end stat line.

I want a #1 WR who I can play every week, and Moss isn't that guy anymore.

 

[Neo]

The thing that really stood out to me last year with Moss was his lack of consistency with his game effort & intensity. I did admire him for playing through the injuries, but he looked downright lazy in many of the games. He just seems to shut it down when he's not directly involved in the play. Maybe it was due to not being 100%, but this will be his 9th year in the league. His attitude is not going to change. What you see is what you get with Moss. And you just don't see the same hunger with Moss as you do with other guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and even TO.

OMG, this same tired argument. Geez, come up with something new. Moss produces game in and game out - injury is the only thing that slows him down.

 

[jurb26]

Many of you know how I feel about Moss. His days as a season end elite WR are done. When healthy, he can put up great numbers, but his price tag is too high to draft on his PPG potential.

It's time to think about Moss in the same breath as Warner, F. Taylor, and other players who, in their prime put up great PPG, but were hurt too often to put up great season end numbers. End the end, for most drafters, there will be better prospects on the draft board than Moss, when you are looking for a good #1 WR.

I won't give projections, because they are virtually useless. Unlike TO, who can consistently put up great numbers when playing hurt, Moss can't produce great numbers when he's hurt. However, when Moss is healthy, he can put up monstrous numbers, which creates a deceptive season end stat line.

I want a #1 WR who I can play every week, and Moss isn't that guy anymore.

 

[perry147]

100/1600/18

 

[stbugs]

Randy Moss was once said to have had his days in the top 3 or 5 over heading into 2003 and the guy flat exploded back onto the seen with over 1600 yds and 17 TDs. The same will happen this year so long as the fluke injuries stop. Moss will lead many teams to victory this year given his likely ADP.

82 rec, 1400 yds, 18 TDs

Huh?Yes, Randy had his worst TD total ever (7) in 2002, but he was never out of the top 5 until 2004, so not sure what you are calling "over" because I sure don't remember that. I remember Moss being among the top couple WRs chosen every year, even 2005 since 2004 was chalked up to injury and he still had. To say that Moss with 100+ receptions and 1300+ yards in 2002 was considered over is a little overboard.

I would have to say that 2006 is probably the first year since his rookie year that Moss is not going to be ranked as a consensus top 1-5 WR.

 

[(HULK)]

I sure hope everyone sleeps on Randy Moss this year.

When he's healthy, he's the best WR in the game.

Nothing sweeter than drafting the top WR in the 3rd round.

 

[The Finist]

I sure hope everyone sleeps on Randy Moss this year.

When he's healthy, he's the best WR in the game.

Nothing sweeter than drafting the top WR in the 3rd round.

 

[jurb26]

I sure hope everyone sleeps on Randy Moss this year.

When he's healthy, he's the best WR in the game.

Nothing sweeter than drafting the top WR in the 3rd round.

Which is where I got him in 2003, the only other time I've had him on my team.

 

[joffer]

75/1200/11

 

[Traders2001]

Many of you know how I feel about Moss. His days as a season end elite WR are done. When healthy, he can put up great numbers, but his price tag is too high to draft on his PPG potential.

It's time to think about Moss in the same breath as Warner, F. Taylor, and other players who, in their prime put up great PPG, but were hurt too often to put up great season end numbers. End the end, for most drafters, there will be better prospects on the draft board than Moss, when you are looking for a good #1 WR.

I won't give projections, because they are virtually useless. Unlike TO, who can consistently put up great numbers when playing hurt, Moss can't produce great numbers when he's hurt. However, when Moss is healthy, he can put up monstrous numbers, which creates a deceptive season end stat line.

I want a #1 WR who I can play every week, and Moss isn't that guy anymore.

OK so who will play every game at WR . Fitzgerald ( good but he is a 10TD wr and will never be more )Holt ( also a 10 TD wr )

Walker ( Ah Ah Ah )

Roy Williams ( ok but not great )

The only one i would play for sure ahead of Moss is Steve Smith ( the guy is amazing the only WR on his team and still puts up those numbers )and maybe TO.

I say Moss wont score less then 10 TD's so he is anywhere between #2 and #4 WR not worst then that .

 

[Gopher State]

Moss is going to be one of the biggest values this year in F.F. I don't know many guys who are going to drop to around the 3rd round, and have the potential for 14 td's.

I would project 1400 yards and 14 t.d.s.

 

[jaybaer]

At what point do you start taking a look at C-Pep as part of the Moss story? Not yet probably, due to last year's injury, but a third QB in three years can't be an ideal scenario for a guy that runs so many timing routes in the red zone. However, when healthy the guy is a freak that can haul in more of Brooks' semi-errant tosses than anyone Brooks has had to throw to so far.

79 1353 12

 

[AnonymousBob]

Why do people keep saying Brooks has a better arm than Collins? Why have some (in various threads) claimed Aaron to be a better qb than Kerry?

 

[joffer]

Why do people keep saying Brooks has a better arm than Collins? Why have some (in various threads) claimed Aaron to be a better qb than Kerry?

even though i think Brooks is a very poor NFL QB, Collins does tend to throw a deep ball with a very low arc, as opposed to Brooks to tends to throw rainbows, similar to the way Culpepper did in Minny. the argument being that this better suits Moss's ability to win jump balls.I personally don't think Brooks is a better NFL QB or has a stronger arm.

 

[DA RAIDERS]

79/1150/11

there are a lot of hands in the cookie jar when it comes to catches in oaktown. jordan alone will take 10+ catches away from moss on dumpoffs.

 

[Blackjacks]

Why do people keep saying Brooks has a better arm than Collins? Why have some (in various threads) claimed Aaron to be a better qb than Kerry?

even though i think Brooks is a very poor NFL QB, Collins does tend to throw a deep ball with a very low arc, as opposed to Brooks to tends to throw rainbows, similar to the way Culpepper did in Minny. the argument being that this better suits Moss's ability to win jump balls.I personally don't think Brooks is a better NFL QB or has a stronger arm.

the mobility of Brooks is also a +. He can buy more time for Randy to get open as where if someone wasn't open for Collins on a three step drop he would basically just turtle it and go down. I don't think Brooks is an upgrade as a qb in football but for fantasy purposes I do.

 

[Dancing Bear]

Moss returns to full-time health without any fluky contact incidents in 2006.

He finishes the season with:

80 Receptions

1360 Yards

12 Receiving TD's

Good for a return to the Top 5 WR!

 

[Synthesizer]

At what point do you start taking a look at C-Pep as part of the Moss story?

Well obviously Culpepper is "part" of the Moss story, but not the defining factor. Moss put up some crazy stats his first few years with a different QB each year.

 

[jurb26]

At what point do you start taking a look at C-Pep as part of the Moss story?

Well obviously Culpepper is "part" of the Moss story, but not the defining factor. Moss put up some crazy stats his first few years with a different QB each year.

Plus he was puttin up crazy numbers before he got hurt in Oak with yet another QB.

 

[Wingnut]

Moss rebounds with a fine year. If hes there when I pick at the turn at pick 24, hes all mine.

83rec, 1203yds, 12tds

 

[Ozymandias]

Brooks has the ability to move around and buy himself time to find his receivers. Now if you are a QB, of all the receivers in the NFL, who would you rather be throwing to if you need to have someone break off a pattern and play for a jump ball? That's right, Randy Moss.

I look for him to be big this year. 1600 yards, 16 td's.

 

[Dog]

90 receptions, 1450 yards, 15 TDs

 

[TwinTurbo]

The thing that really stood out to me last year with Moss was his lack of consistency with his game effort & intensity. I did admire him for playing through the injuries, but he looked downright lazy in many of the games. He just seems to shut it down when he's not directly involved in the play. Maybe it was due to not being 100%, but this will be his 9th year in the league. His attitude is not going to change. What you see is what you get with Moss. And you just don't see the same hunger with Moss as you do with other guys like Steve Smith, Chad Johnson, and even TO.

OMG, this same tired argument. Geez, come up with something new. Moss produces game in and game out - injury is the only thing that slows him down.

I would try to come up with a new argument, but that's the only knock I have against Moss. Injury is NOT the only thing that slows him down. Laziness also slows him down. The guy just doesn't bring it every play. And now he's getting a bit older and can't just fall back on his superior athleticism to make up for a half-### effort. It's a legitimate concern, otherwise Moss would be the consensus #1 every year just based on talent. I also don't like the fact that he no longer plays in the climate controlled, spiral friendly, fast track Metrodome. I still stick by my initial projection: 79 rec, 1200 yds, 10 TD

This would rank him in the #7-10 WR range.

 

[matt jones]

Wow, he's not even 30 and he's done lol. The guy is the second best receiver in nfl histor imo, with 5-6 really good seasons left.