What's new
Fantasy Football - Footballguys Forums

Welcome to Our Forums. Once you've registered and logged in, you're primed to talk football, among other topics, with the sharpest and most experienced fantasy players on the internet.

Player Spotlight: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ray Rice, RB, Baltimore Ravens

Player Page Link: Ray Rice Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
  • FBG Projections
  • Consensus Member Projections

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 
A stud but I'm worried about Flacco taking over as the pillar of the offense. Still a stud and a PPR gold mine.

I think his numbers stay fairly close to last years but do go up a touch;

265/1250/10

65/500/4

 
As a Baltimore raven fan buyer beware of Ray rice by the end if the season it became pretty evident that Bernard Pierce was the better running back he is gonna take a big chunk out if Ray Rice production

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Yeah, I am worried about how much Pierce eats into his carries this year. From the moment Caldwell took over as OC last year we have:

Rice: 120/451/2 - 3.75YPC

Pierce: 58/345/0 - 5.9YPC

Pierce was clearly playing better from the point Caldwell took over through to the Superbowl, and that worries me a little. In PPR his receptions keep him top-5 relevant, but in non-PPR I've got him at RB10 behind guys like Morris, Spiller and TRich.

 
Likely won't get the same amount of carries, since Pierce has proven that he can contribute. But without Boldin in town, Rice could be in line for more receptions. Rice is being overlooked a little bit in that many are taking Martin, Charles, and Lynch ahead of him in many leagues, but in a PPR league, Rice is still money and a solid RB1. BAL is going to run the ball a lot, so Pierce can eat into Rice's carries a lot, and still Rice can get 20 touches a game.

255 car, 1100 rush yds, 9 TD

67 rec, 530 rec yds, 2 TD

 
Yeah, I am worried about how much Pierce eats into his carries this year. From the moment Caldwell took over as OC last year we have:

Rice: 120/451/2 - 3.75YPC

Pierce: 58/345/0 - 5.9YPC

Pierce was clearly playing better from the point Caldwell took over through to the Superbowl, and that worries me a little. In PPR his receptions keep him top-5 relevant, but in non-PPR I've got him at RB10 behind guys like Morris, Spiller and TRich.
I wouldn't read into this that much, it's a pretty small sample size. But Pierce did look good, and he deserves a bigger role and will limit Rice's upside to a certain extent.

 
I continue to be puzzled by the preference of most writers for Ray Rice over Alfred Morris. Morris outperformed him last year, and as was mentioned above, I see Pierce eating in to Ray Rice's carries. Rice will still be a top 10 running back, but I see him at 1450 total yards and 9 TD's.

 
This won't be a popular opinion, but even as a Ray Rice owner I've never been that impressed. He's a durable little guy and a great pass catcher, but I've never been the least bit surprised that he finishes so low on the elusiveness rating that PFF puts out. A lot of people cite that as a reason for the elusive rating being B.S. but I actually think it is pretty spot on. I suspect Pierce looked better running the ball than Rice last year not be cause Rice was worn down, but simply because Pierce is a better runner. Pure speculation on my part, but I guess time will tell.

For now, I'll be passing on him at RB5. Would rather have Lynch. Morris is going a lot later, but as the guy above me mentioned, he's probably a better pick, too. Morris is going to be more involved in the passing game this year, so even in PPR leagues the decision won't be so black and white.

 
This won't be a popular opinion, but even as a Ray Rice owner I've never been that impressed. He's a durable little guy and a great pass catcher, but I've never been the least bit surprised that he finishes so low on the elusiveness rating that PFF puts out. A lot of people cite that as a reason for the elusive rating being B.S. but I actually think it is pretty spot on. I suspect Pierce looked better running the ball than Rice last year not be cause Rice was worn down, but simply because Pierce is a better runner. Pure speculation on my part, but I guess time will tell.

For now, I'll be passing on him at RB5. Would rather have Lynch. Morris is going a lot later, but as the guy above me mentioned, he's probably a better pick, too. Morris is going to be more involved in the passing game this year, so even in PPR leagues the decision won't be so black and white.
x2.

Some guy wanted to trade me Rice for Lynch but said I would have to add a bunch to Lynch. I said I wasn't really interested in even trading them straight up.

I took Lynch in that same league at 2.11 while Rice went at 1.10. Past performance doesn't dictate future results. Pierce is going to get a lot of looks.

 
I continue to be puzzled by the preference of most writers for Ray Rice over Alfred Morris. Morris outperformed him last year, and as was mentioned above, I see Pierce eating in to Ray Rice's carries. Rice will still be a top 10 running back, but I see him at 1450 total yards and 9 TD's.
Morris has a lower floor than Rice simply because Rice will catch a lot more passes than Morris (even if Morris' catches go up, as expected). Plus, goal line carries can be hard to predict, and many of Morris' TDs came from there or inside the 10 last year, so if those tail off and he ends up only scoring 7-8 times, he could be a 1,100-yard back with 7-8 TDs and not a lot of catches. Rice, even with Pierce getting more touches, should still be good for at worst 1,500 total yards, 8+ touchdowns and 50+ catches.

 
Yeah, I am worried about how much Pierce eats into his carries this year. From the moment Caldwell took over as OC last year we have:

Rice: 120/451/2 - 3.75YPC

Pierce: 58/345/0 - 5.9YPC

Pierce was clearly playing better from the point Caldwell took over through to the Superbowl, and that worries me a little. In PPR his receptions keep him top-5 relevant, but in non-PPR I've got him at RB10 behind guys like Morris, Spiller and TRich.
The touches breakdown from week 15 on:

Rice = 120 carries, 17 catches (20 carries and 2.85 rec per game)

Pierce = 58 carries, 1 catch (9.7 carries and .16 rec per game)

So with Caldwell as the OC, Rice got a 2.3:1 advantage in usage over Pierce... about standard for starter vs backup.

Rice's touches in the first 13 games: 218 carries, 52 catches (16.8 carries and 4 rec per game)

So Rice was actually used more after Caldwell took over (on average).

I have no issue using last season's per game average touches (a little lower than his usual) and Rice's career averages for per touch to project next year.

16.9 carries/g @4.5/car, 4.1 rec/g @ 8.7/rec = 271 carries for 1219 yards, 65 receptions for 565 yards. I'll go with 9 total TDs, just under his average over the last 4 seasons.

 
I'm personally more worried about the loss of Cam Cameron as opposed to the presence of Pierce. Cameron is one of the handful of guys that like to funnel the passing game through the RB, and Rice's receiving totals have been a pretty big part of his value. If he goes from 60 - 70 catches down to normal feature RB levels of 30 - 40 (along with losing the related yardage and a TD or so) that's a significant hit. I definitely am currently leaning away from Rice as a 1st round redraft pick.

 
I was surprised to read some of the pessimism regarding Rice in this thread to date about Rice. And to be frank, while I knew Pierce had come in and done a good job in a relief role of sorts for the Ravens during his rookie year, I hadn’t seen enough of him to compare effectiveness/running styles. In his 4 years as unopposed #1 RB for the Ravens, Rice has put up the following numbers:

2009: 332 touches, 2041 YFS & 8 TD’s
2010: 370 touches, 1776 YFS & 6 TD’s
2011: 371 touches, 2068 YFS & 15 TD’s
2012: 318 touches, 1621 YFS & 10 TD’s (in 15 games for all intents & purposes as he was largely rested in Week 17)

That’s an 1877 YFS & 10 TD/season average with Rice being firmly entrenched as not only an RB1, but perhaps one of the few players at the RB position who qualifies as a sure thing. Currently, on FFC he’s the 6th RB off the board. So as it relates to his standing on the Ravens, not only is he productive, but with the retirement of Lewis and Ed Reed off to Houston, he now represents a pretty significant veteran voice of leadership for a team going through a transition.

Now, do the Ravens have the means and the confidence by which they can start to manage Rice’s workload? Yes…but I think Rice averages at least 20 touches per game with about 4 coming in the passing game. More importantly though, in 2012, Rice outrushed Pierce inside their opponents 10 yard line 18 carries to 2 carries. You’ve got to trust your goal line RB and Pierce at least during his rookie year, did not earn that trust. Could that change in 2013? Maybe, but if Pierce garnered more work – he’d be on a short leash.

Also, the Ravens outside passing game changes with Boldin gone and Jacoby Jones slotting in that WR2 role. Jones being more of a deep threat has to be accounted for more in terms of taking the top off the defense which should open up opportunities underneath for Pitta/Rice who I would think stand to benefit if Jones can be established in the deep passing game. If anything, I think the reliance on Rice in the passing game will be as necessary as ever.

I guess with Rice, he’s quickly become an unsexy RB1 because of his reliability over the years. The last three years, he’s never come in at lower than 1.03 on FFC’s ADP, yet he’s fallen to 1.06 this year. It’s not a huge drop, but if I’m choosing between Lynch, Martin and Charles (the three guys beside Peterson/Foster who’ve moved ahead of him)…I’ve got to pick Rice (probably over Foster as well) because he’s the lowest risk with the highest upside.

Prediction: 282 Rushes 1317 Rushing Yards 10 TD’s, 57 Receptions 476 Receiving Yards, 2 TD’s.

 
II guess with Rice, he’s quickly become an unsexy RB1 because of his reliability over the years. The last three years, he’s never come in at lower than 1.03 on FFC’s ADP, yet he’s fallen to 1.06 this year. It’s not a huge drop, but if I’m choosing between Lynch, Martin and Charles (the three guys beside Peterson/Foster who’ve moved ahead of him)…I’ve got to pick Rice (probably over Foster as well) because he’s the lowest risk with the highest upside.
Why does Rice have the lowest risk with the highest upside? You never actually answered either of those claims. Most think he has the most risk of the top RBs because he's also been one of the most worked. He has more career touches than Lynch with a season less experience. That's condensing a LOT of touches on one guy. Rice also has the most talented backup runners behind him who showed at the end of last year to be poaching a lot of touches, so how does he have the highest upside either?

Highest upside has to go to AP and it's not even close. And I'd probably put Charles right behind him. Chris Johnson has to be third in upside if he was actually trying anymore. Rice has maybe the 6th best upside if you ask me.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
II guess with Rice, he’s quickly become an unsexy RB1 because of his reliability over the years. The last three years, he’s never come in at lower than 1.03 on FFC’s ADP, yet he’s fallen to 1.06 this year. It’s not a huge drop, but if I’m choosing between Lynch, Martin and Charles (the three guys beside Peterson/Foster who’ve moved ahead of him)…I’ve got to pick Rice (probably over Foster as well) because he’s the lowest risk with the highest upside.
Why does Rice have the lowest risk with the highest upside? You never actually answered either of those claims. Most think he has the most risk of the top RBs because he's also been one of the most worked. He has more career touches than Lynch with a season less experience. That's condensing a LOT of touches on one guy. Rice also has the most talented backup runners behind him who showed at the end of last year to be poaching a lot of touches, so how does he have the highest upside either?

Highest upside has to go to AP and it's not even close. And I'd probably put Charles right behind him. Chris Johnson has to be third in upside if he was actually trying anymore. Rice has maybe the 6th best upside if you ask me.
I disagree about Charles' upside. Prepare to get frustrated by Andy Reid throwing the ball in many obvious running situations. 2nd and goal and 3rd and goal bootlegs will really irritate Charles owners after a few weeks.

I would put Foster in the category with high upside.

I think Rice has very high upside because I'm not sure how T. Smith will handle double teams without a clear cut talented number on the other side of the field. Let's hope he's more Anquan Boldin than Peerless Price/TJ Houshmandzadeh.

If you're in a PPR league, Rice is probably top 2 or 3 in upside as he's able to catch 70+ passes. That's the equivalent of 700 additional rushing yards in most leagues (not even counting the receiving yards from those plays).

 
Ray Rice has been arguably the most consistent RB in the NFL the past 4 seasons (not counting his rookie season) and he's still only 26 years old. Let's also not forget the fact that he hasn't missed a game in those 4 years. The guy simply has that instinct on how to take hits and when to go down without hurting himself. He walks the fine line of running hard and running smart. He's been the poster boy for reliability and consistency throughout his career thus far. Last year, he maybe didn't WIN any games for you, but he certainly didn't lose any. He also is a major part of the Raven's Super Bowl victory (4th & 29). Do you really think that Harbaugh and the franchise are just suddenly going to forget all of this and have a committee backfield? NO! Pierce is simply there to spell Rice for a series here and there. I'm all for it too. I witnessed Pierce run the ball the field last year, only for Ray to come in and score the TD. Works for me.

280/1260/10

70/595/1

and the most important statistic....16 games started.

 
Ray Rice has been arguably the most consistent RB in the NFL the past 4 seasons (not counting his rookie season) and he's still only 26 years old. Let's also not forget the fact that he hasn't missed a game in those 4 years. The guy simply has that instinct on how to take hits and when to go down without hurting himself. He walks the fine line of running hard and running smart. He's been the poster boy for reliability and consistency throughout his career thus far. Last year, he maybe didn't WIN any games for you, but he certainly didn't lose any. He also is a major part of the Raven's Super Bowl victory (4th & 29). Do you really think that Harbaugh and the franchise are just suddenly going to forget all of this and have a committee backfield? NO! Pierce is simply there to spell Rice for a series here and there. I'm all for it too. I witnessed Pierce run the ball the field last year, only for Ray to come in and score the TD. Works for me.

280/1260/10

70/595/1

and the most important statistic....16 games started.
this is a great post!

the guy is ultra-durable and very consistent year-to-year..

I have him in a dynasty league and I keep trying to find ways to trade him ,but in the end,I wind up holding him..always.

I keep thinking he's slowing down, he's in a timeshare , he's worn out.And yet, he keeps on producing..

probably one of the safest bets in all of fantasy football...not unlike J. Witten..

and I love the previous poster's comments about how this Pierce talk looks like the Ben Tate hype the past few seasons.so true..people keep looking for ways to replace Foster and Rice with Pierce and Tate,but it's just not happening..

 
Last edited by a moderator:
I'm personally more worried about the loss of Cam Cameron as opposed to the presence of Pierce. Cameron is one of the handful of guys that like to funnel the passing game through the RB, and Rice's receiving totals have been a pretty big part of his value. If he goes from 60 - 70 catches down to normal feature RB levels of 30 - 40 (along with losing the related yardage and a TD or so) that's a significant hit. I definitely am currently leaning away from Rice as a 1st round redraft pick.
This is a great point. I targeted Rice in his second year solely because of the presence of Cameron. Ronnie Brown had just gone nuts with Cameron in Miami, so despite my aversion to guys who don't get goal line touches, I was all in on Rice. It had nothing to do with my perception of Rice's talent. Now Rice is possibly looking at a reduction in receptions and he has a better runner breathing down his neck. That's a gamble you have to deal with in round 2. It shouldn't be a concern for a top 5 RB.

 
Yeah, I am worried about how much Pierce eats into his carries this year. From the moment Caldwell took over as OC last year we have:

Rice: 120/451/2 - 3.75YPC

Pierce: 58/345/0 - 5.9YPC

Pierce was clearly playing better from the point Caldwell took over through to the Superbowl, and that worries me a little. In PPR his receptions keep him top-5 relevant, but in non-PPR I've got him at RB10 behind guys like Morris, Spiller and TRich.
Pierce can eat into his workload without it dramatically, if at all, affecting Rice's draft value, assuming Rice continues to be the favored option at the goal line.

During last year's fantasy season (weeks 1-16), Rice got 254 carries - the fewest of anyone in the top 8 RBs. He scored 10 total TDs - fewer than anyone in the top 8 save Charles. Yet he still ranked RB5 in standard leagues and RB4 in PPR leagues.

Baltimore's offense isn't exactly the Saints or Patriots, but I'd still expect Rice's TD numbers from last year to be his floor - Boldin was more important to this offense than many people realize. He may not ever repeat the 5.3 YPC he averaged in '09, but I wouldn't expect a Foster-like plunge in that number, either. Most important is his durability and game-to-game consistency ... his week-to-week SD in MFL scoring last year was under 6, indicating exactly the kind of predictable production you need out of a first-round draft pick in order to contend for a title.

I have Rice, Spiller, Lynch, and McCoy in my "tier 2" behind the top 3 of ADP / Foster / Martin. Of the former four, I'll take Rice without question in PPR leagues. In standard leagues the choice gets a little tougher, but a top-6 finish seems almost assured to me and I'll grab him at RB5/6 any and every place I can.

Projection: 272 carries, 1,255 yds (4.6 avg), 11 TD; 58 catches, 460 yds, (7.9 avg), 2 TD

 
Last edited by a moderator:
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds

 
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD

 
Ray Rice has been arguably the most consistent RB in the NFL the past 4 seasons (not counting his rookie season) and he's still only 26 years old. Let's also not forget the fact that he hasn't missed a game in those 4 years. The guy simply has that instinct on how to take hits and when to go down without hurting himself. He walks the fine line of running hard and running smart. He's been the poster boy for reliability and consistency throughout his career thus far. Last year, he maybe didn't WIN any games for you, but he certainly didn't lose any. He also is a major part of the Raven's Super Bowl victory (4th & 29). Do you really think that Harbaugh and the franchise are just suddenly going to forget all of this and have a committee backfield? NO! Pierce is simply there to spell Rice for a series here and there. I'm all for it too. I witnessed Pierce run the ball the field last year, only for Ray to come in and score the TD. Works for me.

280/1260/10

70/595/1

and the most important statistic....16 games started.
this is a great post!

the guy is ultra-durable and very consistent year-to-year..

I have him in a dynasty league and I keep trying to find ways to trade him ,but in the end,I wind up holding him..always.

I keep thinking he's slowing down, he's in a timeshare , he's worn out.And yet, he keeps on producing..

probably one of the safest bets in all of fantasy football...not unlike J. Witten..

and I love the previous poster's comments about how this Pierce talk looks like the Ben Tate hype the past few seasons.so true..people keep looking for ways to replace Foster and Rice with Pierce and Tate,but it's just not happening..
I will second this as well.

In 2011, in PPR format, Rice scored 19 or more points 14 out of the 16 weeks. That is unbelievable consistency......how nice that you could pencil in 19+ points in the RB1 line every week. Since he catches a ton of passes and scores 10-14 TDs, you know he's going to give you 12+ points every week in a PPR league. Even in non PPR, Rice gives you consistent yards and doesn't have a ton of multiple TD weeks.....so you will get a lot of 90-120 all purpose yards and a TD in a lot of games.

That said, 2011 was an unbelieveable year for Rice, and I don't expect that to continue. But to think Pierce is all of a sudden going to get 50% of the carries is wrong IMO. I see a 65%/35% ratio of carries. With that ratio, Pierce is still going to get 8-10 carries a game, since IMO BAL is going to run the ball a lot.

If you draft Rice, I think you have to get Pierce in a later round. What will be intereresting to see if Pierce's ADP goes down as the summer progresses. Right now his ADP is about 124, which is the 11th round in a 12 teamer. 11th rounder is fine to secure the BAL running game, but I would hesitate if I have to spend an 8th or 9th rounder on Pierce......similar to the Foster/Tate situation a couple of years ago.

 
II guess with Rice, he’s quickly become an unsexy RB1 because of his reliability over the years. The last three years, he’s never come in at lower than 1.03 on FFC’s ADP, yet he’s fallen to 1.06 this year. It’s not a huge drop, but if I’m choosing between Lynch, Martin and Charles (the three guys beside Peterson/Foster who’ve moved ahead of him)…I’ve got to pick Rice (probably over Foster as well) because he’s the lowest risk with the highest upside.
Why does Rice have the lowest risk with the highest upside? You never actually answered either of those claims. Most think he has the most risk of the top RBs because he's also been one of the most worked. He has more career touches than Lynch with a season less experience. That's condensing a LOT of touches on one guy. Rice also has the most talented backup runners behind him who showed at the end of last year to be poaching a lot of touches, so how does he have the highest upside either?

Highest upside has to go to AP and it's not even close. And I'd probably put Charles right behind him. Chris Johnson has to be third in upside if he was actually trying anymore. Rice has maybe the 6th best upside if you ask me.
Let's talk about the 3 RB's I referred to in the original post in the context of upside and risk. And let me also say this...all 3 are most defintely RB1's...no debating that.

Charles: A true game-breaker, he totaled a career high 320 touches last year on a lost KC team. But his career high in TD's is 8 ('09 & '10) and to score, he's needed to so from distance quite a bit. There is no Thomas Jones or Peyton Hillis now who were seen as the goal line vultures going into previous seasons, but Charles has not been a guy heavily used inside the 5. So it'll be intersting to see what Reid does here. Also, will Reid run Charles into the ground? They did draft Knile Davis in Round 3, is he the new Jones? No doubt he came through strong from his ACL injury, but without a history of being the #1 goal line option, his 1840 YFS average in his last 2 full seasons isn't enough IMO to off-set the support Rice gives you in the TD category.

Lynch: When you mentioned workload, I was curious about the comparison with Lynch. My numbers indicate Rice has fewer touches than Lynch in his career (1527 to 1618) and is 1 year younger. Coupled with the fact the Lynch's running style in the definition of 'bull in china shop' and I would be more concerned with a drop off for Lynch moreso than Rice. And 2012 was a career year for Lynch with 1786 YFS and 12 TD's, which are very close to Rice's 4 year average since becoming BAL's RB1.

Martin: For me with Martin, it comes down to 1 year track record. Some will simply see his rookie year and continue to project that out for Year 2. I don't mind projecting in later rounds (even as early as Round 2 depending on situation). But Top 4 pick...I'm more inclined to side with experience. Is that to say I expect Martin to fail or drop-off precipitously. No. In fact, he's the closest thing to Ray Rice in the NFL outside of Ray Rice.

BTW, I picked these RB's because on FFC, they are ahead of Rice (in addiition to ADP & Peterson).

 
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.

Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.

Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.

Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.

 
Not all rb receptions need to be called by the OC. Alot of those dump offs happen when a play breaks down or nobody can get open. Rice gets alot of those. I suspect with the Ravens wr situation that's going to continue, and probably go up.

 
270 carries / 1215 rush yards / 10 TD ; 60 catches / 500 yards / 1 TD = 298 PPR / 18.6 PPR PPG

 
FF Ninja said:
I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD
Rice averaged 20 carries and 2.85 rec per game under Caldwell.

You have him at 13.75 carries and 2.19 rec per game. That is an awfully big drop.

 
fightingillini said:
FF Ninja said:
Two Deep said:
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.

Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.

Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.

Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.
That ought to about sum it up.

 
FF Ninja said:
I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD
Rice averaged 20 carries and 2.85 rec per game under Caldwell.

You have him at 13.75 carries and 2.19 rec per game. That is an awfully big drop.
17/7 = 2.43 rec/game

I was figuring Pierce to have a larger role than last year.

 
fightingillini said:
FF Ninja said:
Two Deep said:
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.

Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.

Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.

Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.
35 receptions would not be considered not utilizing his receiving skills. And yes, I totally agree with the small sample size comment. But let's be honest with ourselves, throwing to the running back a ton is a Cam Cameron thing. As soon as Cameron was fired, I knew that aspect of Rice's game was going to see a hit. Caldwell simply doesn't throw to running backs nearly as much as Cam Cameron. That's just a fact. People projecting 60-70 receptions are delusional. I'm not saying he's not a great pass catcher for a running back or that it is the right strategy. I'm simply saying that the Cam Cameron pace of receptions WON'T happen with a new OC.

And sure, we can't predict who is going to catch all the passes in Baltimore, but that doesn't mean they can just run the ball at will. That is faulty logic. I think Ray Lewis moving on was probably a good thing for this defense, but I still don't think it is a very good defense anymore. I think they'd love to run the ball 60% of the time, but I don't think they'll have that luxury. This reminds me of when Warner retired and everyone was like, oh, Arizona will just run the ball 500 times. No. Just because we can't tally up who is going to get the targets doesn't mean they simply won't pass the ball. This defense has holes and they just paid Flacco way too much money. I don't think this team is going to be very good in 2013. They weren't really that good in 2012 until the playoffs. I also think it will be hard to keep Pierce off the field.

Ray Rice has had the luxury of no real competition and a Cam Cameron offense. Now he's got a good runner behind him and he's in an offense that doesn't run through the halfback anymore. I don't think it is wise to just blindly project his touches based on last year or the last few years.

 
FF Ninja said:
FF Ninja said:
I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD
Rice averaged 20 carries and 2.85 rec per game under Caldwell.

You have him at 13.75 carries and 2.19 rec per game. That is an awfully big drop.
17/7 = 2.43 rec/game

I was figuring Pierce to have a larger role than last year.
It is not reasonable to include week 17 where the starters barely played. So it was 17 rec in 6 games.

 
FF Ninja said:
fightingillini said:
FF Ninja said:
Two Deep said:
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.

Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.

Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.

Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.
35 receptions would not be considered not utilizing his receiving skills. And yes, I totally agree with the small sample size comment. But let's be honest with ourselves, throwing to the running back a ton is a Cam Cameron thing. As soon as Cameron was fired, I knew that aspect of Rice's game was going to see a hit. Caldwell simply doesn't throw to running backs nearly as much as Cam Cameron. That's just a fact. People projecting 60-70 receptions are delusional. I'm not saying he's not a great pass catcher for a running back or that it is the right strategy. I'm simply saying that the Cam Cameron pace of receptions WON'T happen with a new OC.

And sure, we can't predict who is going to catch all the passes in Baltimore, but that doesn't mean they can just run the ball at will. That is faulty logic. I think Ray Lewis moving on was probably a good thing for this defense, but I still don't think it is a very good defense anymore. I think they'd love to run the ball 60% of the time, but I don't think they'll have that luxury. This reminds me of when Warner retired and everyone was like, oh, Arizona will just run the ball 500 times. No. Just because we can't tally up who is going to get the targets doesn't mean they simply won't pass the ball. This defense has holes and they just paid Flacco way too much money. I don't think this team is going to be very good in 2013. They weren't really that good in 2012 until the playoffs. I also think it will be hard to keep Pierce off the field.

Ray Rice has had the luxury of no real competition and a Cam Cameron offense. Now he's got a good runner behind him and he's in an offense that doesn't run through the halfback anymore. I don't think it is wise to just blindly project his touches based on last year or the last few years.
I think it's fair to assume that Rice's workload won't be as high as in the past. I don't have him at 350+ touches. But I still think you're taking it way too far.

I also agree that Pierce has clearly deserved a bigger role. He's going to get 6-10 carries a game, maybe more.

I agree that BAL's D isn't going to be that good, which will probably prevent BAL from running it as much as they would like. But you still didn't answer my main concern......if you don't think BAL is going to run the ball more, then who is going to catch all these passes that won't go to the RBs? I would like to see where Flacco's 325-350 completions are going to if Rice and Pierce are only going to catch 45.

Also, maybe in the past Caldwell didn't throw much to the RBs. But I can tell you, he's never had a talented pass catching RB like Ray Rice, so just thinking that Caldwell will drastically reduce Rice's receptions is premature thinking. Good coaches adapt to the talent that's on the team.....and the talent on the Ravens' offense is at the RB position. Looking at the game logs, Rice has a decent amount of 3-4 catch games with Caldwell. He didn't play Week 17 and didn't catch the ball against DEN in the playoffs (but carried the ball 30 times....that was just a function of game strategy and probably won't be the norm). So in the 6 games under Caldwell where Rice could be in line for receptions....he caught 20 for about 3.3 a game.....equates to about 53. So if you want to use the small sample there, a more reasonable projection would be 50-60 receptions. Personally, I think Rice is too talented to be ignored in the passing game, so my projection is more near the 60-65 catch area, or about 4 per game.

You can disagree, that's fine. But I seriously think your projection is way too low. You are just assuming that Caldwell is going to limit Rice's recpetions and treating Caldwell's past history with RBs like gospel. I wouldn't be so sure about that. It could happen, but projecting 35 means you think Rice could catch even less than that. I would think 35-40 receptions would be Rice's absolute floor, not his median projection.

 
I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD
Rice averaged 20 carries and 2.85 rec per game under Caldwell.

You have him at 13.75 carries and 2.19 rec per game. That is an awfully big drop.
17/7 = 2.43 rec/game

I was figuring Pierce to have a larger role than last year.
It is not reasonable to include week 17 where the starters barely played. So it was 17 rec in 6 games.
Oh ****, yeah, that was sloppy on my part. I get lazy when posting about guys that I'm 99% certain won't be on my team.

 
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.

Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.

Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.

Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.
35 receptions would not be considered not utilizing his receiving skills. And yes, I totally agree with the small sample size comment. But let's be honest with ourselves, throwing to the running back a ton is a Cam Cameron thing. As soon as Cameron was fired, I knew that aspect of Rice's game was going to see a hit. Caldwell simply doesn't throw to running backs nearly as much as Cam Cameron. That's just a fact. People projecting 60-70 receptions are delusional. I'm not saying he's not a great pass catcher for a running back or that it is the right strategy. I'm simply saying that the Cam Cameron pace of receptions WON'T happen with a new OC.

And sure, we can't predict who is going to catch all the passes in Baltimore, but that doesn't mean they can just run the ball at will. That is faulty logic. I think Ray Lewis moving on was probably a good thing for this defense, but I still don't think it is a very good defense anymore. I think they'd love to run the ball 60% of the time, but I don't think they'll have that luxury. This reminds me of when Warner retired and everyone was like, oh, Arizona will just run the ball 500 times. No. Just because we can't tally up who is going to get the targets doesn't mean they simply won't pass the ball. This defense has holes and they just paid Flacco way too much money. I don't think this team is going to be very good in 2013. They weren't really that good in 2012 until the playoffs. I also think it will be hard to keep Pierce off the field.

Ray Rice has had the luxury of no real competition and a Cam Cameron offense. Now he's got a good runner behind him and he's in an offense that doesn't run through the halfback anymore. I don't think it is wise to just blindly project his touches based on last year or the last few years.
I think it's fair to assume that Rice's workload won't be as high as in the past. I don't have him at 350+ touches. But I still think you're taking it way too far.

I also agree that Pierce has clearly deserved a bigger role. He's going to get 6-10 carries a game, maybe more.

I agree that BAL's D isn't going to be that good, which will probably prevent BAL from running it as much as they would like. But you still didn't answer my main concern......if you don't think BAL is going to run the ball more, then who is going to catch all these passes that won't go to the RBs? I would like to see where Flacco's 325-350 completions are going to if Rice and Pierce are only going to catch 45.

Also, maybe in the past Caldwell didn't throw much to the RBs. But I can tell you, he's never had a talented pass catching RB like Ray Rice, so just thinking that Caldwell will drastically reduce Rice's receptions is premature thinking. Good coaches adapt to the talent that's on the team.....and the talent on the Ravens' offense is at the RB position. Looking at the game logs, Rice has a decent amount of 3-4 catch games with Caldwell. He didn't play Week 17 and didn't catch the ball against DEN in the playoffs (but carried the ball 30 times....that was just a function of game strategy and probably won't be the norm). So in the 6 games under Caldwell where Rice could be in line for receptions....he caught 20 for about 3.3 a game.....equates to about 53. So if you want to use the small sample there, a more reasonable projection would be 50-60 receptions. Personally, I think Rice is too talented to be ignored in the passing game, so my projection is more near the 60-65 catch area, or about 4 per game.

You can disagree, that's fine. But I seriously think your projection is way too low. You are just assuming that Caldwell is going to limit Rice's recpetions and treating Caldwell's past history with RBs like gospel. I wouldn't be so sure about that. It could happen, but projecting 35 means you think Rice could catch even less than that. I would think 35-40 receptions would be Rice's absolute floor, not his median projection.
Yes. Yes I did address your question. I said that just because we can't predict where the passes will go doesn't mean that they won't happen. If you remove a team's top 3 receiving targets, they won't just go to an 80/20 run/pass ratio. That is silly. The passing attempts are going to have to happen. I don't have a crystal ball to tell you who they'll go to, but I assure you that the run/pass ratio isn't going to be altered drastically just because Boldin was traded. Also, since we both agree that the defense is going to be worse, it is entirely possible that they have less offensive plays per game. They ranked 9th last year.

And as Lott pointed out, Rice really had 17 rec in 6 games, for an extrapolated 45 rec in 16 games. But with my perception that Pierce gets a slightly bigger piece of the pie next year, I'd expect Rice's number to be a bit below that. If I had it to do over again, I'd probably project 40 receptions for Rice.

We can say what we want about Rice's receiving ability, but it doesn't change that Cam Cameron throws the ball to RBs a lot and that heavily contributed to Rice's reception totals. In 2007, when Cameron was the HC, the Miami RB's caught 110 passes. Since 2008, the Ravens RBs have caught 83, 115, 98, 104, and 91.

For Caldwell, RBs caught 70, 61, and 39 passes ('09, '10, '11). That 70 happened when the Peyton/Addai combo was still present in Indy. The team threw the ball 599 times in 2009 and 680 times in 2010.

If you are expecting 80+ RB receptions next year, I think you are being very optimistic. In the last 4 years (5 years ago Rice was in a time share so I'll exclude that), Rice has caught 278 of the Ravens' 408 RB receptions - 68%. With Pierce possibly pushing for a bigger role, it would be reasonable to expect that % to drop, but let's use that as a baseline. For him to catch 60 passes, the Ravens' RBs would have to catch 88 passes. For him to catch 70, they would have to catch 103. Color me skeptical, but I don't think Caldwell will have 88 RB receptions, much less 103. If we go with 70 RB receptions and Rice catches a healthy 60% of them, then we're at 42 receptions.

 
In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.

Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds

REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.

And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.

Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.

I think this is more realistic:

Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD

Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.

Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.

Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.

Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.
35 receptions would not be considered not utilizing his receiving skills. And yes, I totally agree with the small sample size comment. But let's be honest with ourselves, throwing to the running back a ton is a Cam Cameron thing. As soon as Cameron was fired, I knew that aspect of Rice's game was going to see a hit. Caldwell simply doesn't throw to running backs nearly as much as Cam Cameron. That's just a fact. People projecting 60-70 receptions are delusional. I'm not saying he's not a great pass catcher for a running back or that it is the right strategy. I'm simply saying that the Cam Cameron pace of receptions WON'T happen with a new OC.

And sure, we can't predict who is going to catch all the passes in Baltimore, but that doesn't mean they can just run the ball at will. That is faulty logic. I think Ray Lewis moving on was probably a good thing for this defense, but I still don't think it is a very good defense anymore. I think they'd love to run the ball 60% of the time, but I don't think they'll have that luxury. This reminds me of when Warner retired and everyone was like, oh, Arizona will just run the ball 500 times. No. Just because we can't tally up who is going to get the targets doesn't mean they simply won't pass the ball. This defense has holes and they just paid Flacco way too much money. I don't think this team is going to be very good in 2013. They weren't really that good in 2012 until the playoffs. I also think it will be hard to keep Pierce off the field.

Ray Rice has had the luxury of no real competition and a Cam Cameron offense. Now he's got a good runner behind him and he's in an offense that doesn't run through the halfback anymore. I don't think it is wise to just blindly project his touches based on last year or the last few years.
I think it's fair to assume that Rice's workload won't be as high as in the past. I don't have him at 350+ touches. But I still think you're taking it way too far.

I also agree that Pierce has clearly deserved a bigger role. He's going to get 6-10 carries a game, maybe more.

I agree that BAL's D isn't going to be that good, which will probably prevent BAL from running it as much as they would like. But you still didn't answer my main concern......if you don't think BAL is going to run the ball more, then who is going to catch all these passes that won't go to the RBs? I would like to see where Flacco's 325-350 completions are going to if Rice and Pierce are only going to catch 45.

Also, maybe in the past Caldwell didn't throw much to the RBs. But I can tell you, he's never had a talented pass catching RB like Ray Rice, so just thinking that Caldwell will drastically reduce Rice's receptions is premature thinking. Good coaches adapt to the talent that's on the team.....and the talent on the Ravens' offense is at the RB position. Looking at the game logs, Rice has a decent amount of 3-4 catch games with Caldwell. He didn't play Week 17 and didn't catch the ball against DEN in the playoffs (but carried the ball 30 times....that was just a function of game strategy and probably won't be the norm). So in the 6 games under Caldwell where Rice could be in line for receptions....he caught 20 for about 3.3 a game.....equates to about 53. So if you want to use the small sample there, a more reasonable projection would be 50-60 receptions. Personally, I think Rice is too talented to be ignored in the passing game, so my projection is more near the 60-65 catch area, or about 4 per game.

You can disagree, that's fine. But I seriously think your projection is way too low. You are just assuming that Caldwell is going to limit Rice's recpetions and treating Caldwell's past history with RBs like gospel. I wouldn't be so sure about that. It could happen, but projecting 35 means you think Rice could catch even less than that. I would think 35-40 receptions would be Rice's absolute floor, not his median projection.
Yes. Yes I did address your question. I said that just because we can't predict where the passes will go doesn't mean that they won't happen. If you remove a team's top 3 receiving targets, they won't just go to an 80/20 run/pass ratio. That is silly. The passing attempts are going to have to happen. I don't have a crystal ball to tell you who they'll go to, but I assure you that the run/pass ratio isn't going to be altered drastically just because Boldin was traded. Also, since we both agree that the defense is going to be worse, it is entirely possible that they have less offensive plays per game. They ranked 9th last year.

And as Lott pointed out, Rice really had 17 rec in 6 games, for an extrapolated 45 rec in 16 games. But with my perception that Pierce gets a slightly bigger piece of the pie next year, I'd expect Rice's number to be a bit below that. If I had it to do over again, I'd probably project 40 receptions for Rice.

We can say what we want about Rice's receiving ability, but it doesn't change that Cam Cameron throws the ball to RBs a lot and that heavily contributed to Rice's reception totals. In 2007, when Cameron was the HC, the Miami RB's caught 110 passes. Since 2008, the Ravens RBs have caught 83, 115, 98, 104, and 91.

For Caldwell, RBs caught 70, 61, and 39 passes ('09, '10, '11). That 70 happened when the Peyton/Addai combo was still present in Indy. The team threw the ball 599 times in 2009 and 680 times in 2010.

If you are expecting 80+ RB receptions next year, I think you are being very optimistic. In the last 4 years (5 years ago Rice was in a time share so I'll exclude that), Rice has caught 278 of the Ravens' 408 RB receptions - 68%. With Pierce possibly pushing for a bigger role, it would be reasonable to expect that % to drop, but let's use that as a baseline. For him to catch 60 passes, the Ravens' RBs would have to catch 88 passes. For him to catch 70, they would have to catch 103. Color me skeptical, but I don't think Caldwell will have 88 RB receptions, much less 103. If we go with 70 RB receptions and Rice catches a healthy 60% of them, then we're at 42 receptions.
I am not assuming their run/pass ratio is going to be materially different just because Boldin left town.

I can also see BAL's plays going down as well.

But as I said before, you're assuming that the ratio of receptions from RBs to WRs/TEs is drastically going to change just because Caldwell is the OC. You're citing 70 and 61 RB receptions during Caldwell's tenure for 2009 and 2010. But you have to see what the personnel was when Caldwell was the coach. In those years, Manning had Wayne, Garcon, Collie, D Clark/Tamme to go along with the RBs. It's pretty obvious that the RB (Addai in this case) was likely the 4th or 5th option in the offense, due to the depth of talent at WR/TE IND had. BAL's personnel is much different. Their #1WR is Torrey Smith and not Reggie Wayne. Their TEs are Pitta and Dickson, neither are as good as Dallas Clark in 2009-2010 (before he got injured). The other WRs aren't close to Garcon and Collie. So Rice (and Pierce to a certain extent) is more or less the #2 or #3 option in the BAL offense. To get your projection of say 40 receptions for Rice, he would have to be the 4th option in the passing attack, and I can't see that. A good coach adjusts to the talent, and Rice is the most talented non QB offensive player that BAL has. Past history is no reflection of future here, because comparing IND 2009-2010 and BAL 2013 is comparing apples and oranges.

I never projected 80 receptions for Rice.....it is 67. I may lower it to 60, but I can't go lower than that. We're not going to agree and that's fine.....we have a different viewpoint as to how the offense is going to shake out. But it will be interesting to see who really steps up for BAL is your projection for Rice is more accurate than mine, while Flacco's number of completions is similar to last year.

 
#Ravens FB @vleach44 tweets that he's been released. He thanked the fans and said he did what he came to Baltimore to do.

 
fightingillini said:
I am not assuming their run/pass ratio is going to be materially different just because Boldin left town.

I can also see BAL's plays going down as well.

But as I said before, you're assuming that the ratio of receptions from RBs to WRs/TEs is drastically going to change just because Caldwell is the OC. You're citing 70 and 61 RB receptions during Caldwell's tenure for 2009 and 2010. But you have to see what the personnel was when Caldwell was the coach. In those years, Manning had Wayne, Garcon, Collie, D Clark/Tamme to go along with the RBs. It's pretty obvious that the RB (Addai in this case) was likely the 4th or 5th option in the offense, due to the depth of talent at WR/TE IND had. BAL's personnel is much different. Their #1WR is Torrey Smith and not Reggie Wayne. Their TEs are Pitta and Dickson, neither are as good as Dallas Clark in 2009-2010 (before he got injured). The other WRs aren't close to Garcon and Collie. So Rice (and Pierce to a certain extent) is more or less the #2 or #3 option in the BAL offense. To get your projection of say 40 receptions for Rice, he would have to be the 4th option in the passing attack, and I can't see that. A good coach adjusts to the talent, and Rice is the most talented non QB offensive player that BAL has. Past history is no reflection of future here, because comparing IND 2009-2010 and BAL 2013 is comparing apples and oranges.

I never projected 80 receptions for Rice.....it is 67. I may lower it to 60, but I can't go lower than that. We're not going to agree and that's fine.....we have a different viewpoint as to how the offense is going to shake out. But it will be interesting to see who really steps up for BAL is your projection for Rice is more accurate than mine, while Flacco's number of completions is similar to last year.
I think you are getting fantasy football and the NFL confused. The coaches are working with X's and O's. They design plays and call plays. The WRs are X, Y, and Z. Not names on a depth chart or names in our fantasy lineups. Caldwell and Cam Cameron have their own sets of plays and Cameron likes to throw to the running back more than Caldwell. Just because you and I don't know the names of the guys who are X, Y, and Z doesn't mean Caldwell isn't still going to call plays for them.

Changes happen every year in the NFL and people draft a guy expecting 300 carries or, in this case, 67 receptions and then they're left aghast in week 17... How come they didn't throw the ball to my RB? The coach is stupid. My RB lost a step. Yada yada. Sometimes we don't know why, other times the writing is clearly on the wall but people refuse to read it because they want stats to look the same as last year.

 
fightingillini said:
I am not assuming their run/pass ratio is going to be materially different just because Boldin left town.

I can also see BAL's plays going down as well.

But as I said before, you're assuming that the ratio of receptions from RBs to WRs/TEs is drastically going to change just because Caldwell is the OC. You're citing 70 and 61 RB receptions during Caldwell's tenure for 2009 and 2010. But you have to see what the personnel was when Caldwell was the coach. In those years, Manning had Wayne, Garcon, Collie, D Clark/Tamme to go along with the RBs. It's pretty obvious that the RB (Addai in this case) was likely the 4th or 5th option in the offense, due to the depth of talent at WR/TE IND had. BAL's personnel is much different. Their #1WR is Torrey Smith and not Reggie Wayne. Their TEs are Pitta and Dickson, neither are as good as Dallas Clark in 2009-2010 (before he got injured). The other WRs aren't close to Garcon and Collie. So Rice (and Pierce to a certain extent) is more or less the #2 or #3 option in the BAL offense. To get your projection of say 40 receptions for Rice, he would have to be the 4th option in the passing attack, and I can't see that. A good coach adjusts to the talent, and Rice is the most talented non QB offensive player that BAL has. Past history is no reflection of future here, because comparing IND 2009-2010 and BAL 2013 is comparing apples and oranges.

I never projected 80 receptions for Rice.....it is 67. I may lower it to 60, but I can't go lower than that. We're not going to agree and that's fine.....we have a different viewpoint as to how the offense is going to shake out. But it will be interesting to see who really steps up for BAL is your projection for Rice is more accurate than mine, while Flacco's number of completions is similar to last year.
I think you are getting fantasy football and the NFL confused. The coaches are working with X's and O's. They design plays and call plays. The WRs are X, Y, and Z. Not names on a depth chart or names in our fantasy lineups. Caldwell and Cam Cameron have their own sets of plays and Cameron likes to throw to the running back more than Caldwell. Just because you and I don't know the names of the guys who are X, Y, and Z doesn't mean Caldwell isn't still going to call plays for them.

Changes happen every year in the NFL and people draft a guy expecting 300 carries or, in this case, 67 receptions and then they're left aghast in week 17... How come they didn't throw the ball to my RB? The coach is stupid. My RB lost a step. Yada yada. Sometimes we don't know why, other times the writing is clearly on the wall but people refuse to read it because they want stats to look the same as last year.
So according to your logic, you would project Alex Smith to throw for 4300+ yards and 30+ TDs, since Andy Reid loves to throw the football. It's irrelevant that it's Alex Smith at QB and not, say Peyton Manning. Because it's QB X throwing to WRs Y, Z, and A, and RBs B and C. :lmao:

BTW, FYI, John Fox is well known for running the football a lot in CAR and being a very conservative coach. Comes to DEN and runs it a lot because he had Tebow at QB. Guess what Fox does when DEN signs Manning? He lets Manning throw for 4500+ yards. I wonder why.....maybe it's becuase Manning is a HOF QB, but I am not sure. Maybe it's because D Thomas and Decker are very good WRs. Geez, why didn't Fox just have Manning hand it off to McGahee and Moreno 30+ times a game.....I mean, that's what Fox had done in the past? Maybe Fox changed his playcalling to fit the talent of his QB? Nooooo, not in FF Ninja's world. :sarcasm:

So you're criticizing others that they look at past stats blindly, but you're blindly looking at a coaches' past and taking it as gospel.

Got it.

 
I am not assuming their run/pass ratio is going to be materially different just because Boldin left town.

I can also see BAL's plays going down as well.

But as I said before, you're assuming that the ratio of receptions from RBs to WRs/TEs is drastically going to change just because Caldwell is the OC. You're citing 70 and 61 RB receptions during Caldwell's tenure for 2009 and 2010. But you have to see what the personnel was when Caldwell was the coach. In those years, Manning had Wayne, Garcon, Collie, D Clark/Tamme to go along with the RBs. It's pretty obvious that the RB (Addai in this case) was likely the 4th or 5th option in the offense, due to the depth of talent at WR/TE IND had. BAL's personnel is much different. Their #1WR is Torrey Smith and not Reggie Wayne. Their TEs are Pitta and Dickson, neither are as good as Dallas Clark in 2009-2010 (before he got injured). The other WRs aren't close to Garcon and Collie. So Rice (and Pierce to a certain extent) is more or less the #2 or #3 option in the BAL offense. To get your projection of say 40 receptions for Rice, he would have to be the 4th option in the passing attack, and I can't see that. A good coach adjusts to the talent, and Rice is the most talented non QB offensive player that BAL has. Past history is no reflection of future here, because comparing IND 2009-2010 and BAL 2013 is comparing apples and oranges.

I never projected 80 receptions for Rice.....it is 67. I may lower it to 60, but I can't go lower than that. We're not going to agree and that's fine.....we have a different viewpoint as to how the offense is going to shake out. But it will be interesting to see who really steps up for BAL is your projection for Rice is more accurate than mine, while Flacco's number of completions is similar to last year.
I think you are getting fantasy football and the NFL confused. The coaches are working with X's and O's. They design plays and call plays. The WRs are X, Y, and Z. Not names on a depth chart or names in our fantasy lineups. Caldwell and Cam Cameron have their own sets of plays and Cameron likes to throw to the running back more than Caldwell. Just because you and I don't know the names of the guys who are X, Y, and Z doesn't mean Caldwell isn't still going to call plays for them.

Changes happen every year in the NFL and people draft a guy expecting 300 carries or, in this case, 67 receptions and then they're left aghast in week 17... How come they didn't throw the ball to my RB? The coach is stupid. My RB lost a step. Yada yada. Sometimes we don't know why, other times the writing is clearly on the wall but people refuse to read it because they want stats to look the same as last year.
So according to your logic, you would project Alex Smith to throw for 4300+ yards and 30+ TDs, since Andy Reid loves to throw the football. It's irrelevant that it's Alex Smith at QB and not, say Peyton Manning. Because it's QB X throwing to WRs Y, Z, and A, and RBs B and C. :lmao:

BTW, FYI, John Fox is well known for running the football a lot in CAR and being a very conservative coach. Comes to DEN and runs it a lot because he had Tebow at QB. Guess what Fox does when DEN signs Manning? He lets Manning throw for 4500+ yards. I wonder why.....maybe it's becuase Manning is a HOF QB, but I am not sure. Maybe it's because D Thomas and Decker are very good WRs. Geez, why didn't Fox just have Manning hand it off to McGahee and Moreno 30+ times a game.....I mean, that's what Fox had done in the past? Maybe Fox changed his playcalling to fit the talent of his QB? Nooooo, not in FF Ninja's world. :sarcasm:

So you're criticizing others that they look at past stats blindly, but you're blindly looking at a coaches' past and taking it as gospel.

Got it.
Sorry I missed this until just now. But no. Obviously no. I suspect you are being intentionally dense here to troll me. All of your examples are atrocious. I mean, really with the Peyton example? Peyton is a player OC. He does what he wants. John Fox is a defensive coach, so why wouldn't he hand the offensive reigns over to Manning? Holy crap, that was one of the dumbest examples I've ever seen. What's even better is that Denver DID run the ball a ton. They finished 3rd in the NFL in running back rushes!! You said why didn't he have Manning hand it off 30+ times a game, apparently unaware they they did hand it off 28+ times a game. I'm afraid I'm going to have to award you no points for that horrible excuse for a counterpoint.

As for Alex Smith, I'm not going to project him for 4300+ yards, but I am going to project him for a career high in pass attempts because Reid likes to throw the ball more than Harbaugh. But I suppose I should ignore coaching tendencies and expect Smith to throw the ball 25 times a game, right?

More importantly, you are talking about the effect of a change in QB (the most critical element in an offense) on an OC's play calling while I'm talking about the effect of an OC change on the play calling. Similar, but quite different.

Finally, I don't think you see the difference between taking something as gospel and taking it into account. Cam Cameron uses the RB in the pass game more than any OC I know of, and I'm talking about designed plays, not Stafford dumping it off to Bell while down 14 points with 3 minutes left. Caldwell's playbook and playing style is different than Cameron's. I'm sure Caldwell will take into account the lack of experienced WRs and Rice's hands, but I don't think he's going to drastically change his offensive philosophy. No matter who took over for Cameron, Rice was going to see a decrease in targets. Some people just can't come to terms with this.

 
I got your back, Ninja. I've already posted in another thread that I expect Rice to take a pretty big hit. Leach gone. OK D getting worse. Offense getting more WR / TE oriented with QB maturity and OC change. Best RB counterpart since McGahee. Cameron gone (good for offense, bad for FFB RB). All these added up mean less leads, less plays and less TDs which is bad for FFB RBs. I have ridden Rice since '09 and won several titles with him. I drafted him in '08 and had him ranked as my #3 rookie that year. I love Rice, but his situation just took a nosedive IMO. I am now -- well I already did sell him for upper end WRs this offseason to people who still believe he is in for 70+ catches and double digit TDs. I also don't see this situation getting better before it gets worse considering Flacco's ridiculous contract and by that time Rice will be almost or past 30. Rice is a wonderful runner but with very mediocre physical skills, he may not age well. It's possible he is a Curtis Martin / Emmit Smith, and he reminds me very much of those guys, but I'm jumping ship while the jumping is good. You're not likely to get as much for him in the future as you can now.

 
His value has gotta be trending up now, right? With Pitta out of the picture, 22 red zone targets up for grabs. Also with Leach most liekly coming back, Id be thrilled to take Rice in the top half of the first.... with even better outlook in ppr obviously.

 
The only thing I would expect to remain pretty constant are his receptions (over the last few years), but that is it. I think his tds and rushing yardage will take a dip.

A much better play in ppr than in standard leagues.

 
Last edited by a moderator:
Pretty sad to see. In past years it was easy to say that he was just being underutilized. I'm not so sure that's the only reason he's not doing well anymore. Just doesn't look like the same player.

 

Users who are viewing this thread

Top