In my opinion the potential increase in use of Pierce will only help Rice be more effective as he will be fresh which you would think would equate to more explosiveness. Looking forward to watching Rice catch more passes this year.
Rush 240- 1,100- 11 tds
REC. 72-630- 4 tds
Isn't that always the case? A new WR came to the team so my WR will see less double coverage, his stats will go up. The second best WR left in free agency so my WR will see more targets, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get more carries now that his backup is gone, his stats will go up. My RB is going to get less carries, but he'll be fresher, his stats will go up. Don't mean to pick on you, but it isn't always rosy like that when things change.
And why is Rice going to get more catches now that Cam Cameron is gone and Jim Caldwell is in? Rice had 17 receptions in 7 games with Caldwell and 55 in 13 games with Cameron.
Boldin was a good run blocking WR, so his loss could hurt both RBs. Obviously not on a play by play basis, but a nice downfield block can mean the difference between a 12 yard gain and a 35 yard gain.
I think this is more realistic:
Rice - 220 x 4.3 = 946 yds 8 TD, 35 rec x 7.5 ypr = 263 yds 1 TD
Pierce - 140 x 4.8 = 672 yds 3 TD, 10 rec x 7 ypr = 70 yds 0 TD
So you're assuming Rice only gets 255 touches, which is about 70-100 less touches than in the past few years? You obviously assuming that BAL is going to have a similar run-pass ratio like 2012, since you only have Rice and Pierce for 360 total carries (Rice and Pierce combined for 365 in 2012). But if that's the case, who's going to catch all these passes from Flacco? You don't think Rice an Pierce will. Torrey Smith isn't a volume WR, he's a big play guy. BAL completed 334 passes in 2012. Say that number is similar for 2013. You're assuming that the WRs, TEs, and RBs not named Rice and Pierce are going to catch about 290 of those passes. Unless you think Torrey Smith is going to catch 80+ passes, Pitta the same, and Dickson catch 60? That only adds up to 220, and add in Rice and Pierce with 45, you're up to 265, so you would have to think the other RBs and WRs are going to catch 70. The 70 number actually is fairly realitic, but that assumes Smith/Pitta/Dickson catch 220, and that's unrealistic.
Sorry, your numbers just don't add up, unless you think BAL is going to complete a lot less passes this year.....and if that were the case, you need Rice AND Pierce to have more carries than just 360 total.
Regarding Rice's receptions, you're taking a farily small sample of games and assuming it's going to continue. Remember that Rice didn't play much at all Week 17, so you can't use that game in your sample. Counting the receptions in the game logs, Rice had 49 catches in the 1st 13 weeks, and 20 in the last 8, and take out week 17, so it's 20 in the last 7. And Rice didn't catch a pass during the Broncos playoff game, but carried the ball 30 times, which was a function of BAL game plan....to just run the ball and play defense. So essentially, Rice caught 20 passes in 6 games where Rice could have been in the mix for receptions, which would extrapolate to about 53 receptions. So to say Rice is going to catch the ball less because Caldwell is there doesn't make sense to me.
Ray Rice is a great receiver out of the backfield, and Caldwell would be an idiot not to utilize it.
35 receptions would not be considered not utilizing his receiving skills. And yes, I totally agree with the small sample size comment. But let's be honest with ourselves, throwing to the running back a ton is a Cam Cameron thing. As soon as Cameron was fired, I knew that aspect of Rice's game was going to see a hit. Caldwell simply doesn't throw to running backs nearly as much as Cam Cameron. That's just a fact. People projecting 60-70 receptions are delusional. I'm not saying he's not a great pass catcher for a running back or that it is the right strategy. I'm simply saying that the Cam Cameron pace of receptions WON'T happen with a new OC.
And sure, we can't predict who is going to catch all the passes in Baltimore, but that doesn't mean they can just run the ball at will. That is faulty logic. I think Ray Lewis moving on was probably a good thing for this defense, but I still don't think it is a very good defense anymore. I think they'd love to run the ball 60% of the time, but I don't think they'll have that luxury. This reminds me of when Warner retired and everyone was like, oh, Arizona will just run the ball 500 times. No. Just because we can't tally up who is going to get the targets doesn't mean they simply won't pass the ball. This defense has holes and they just paid Flacco way too much money. I don't think this team is going to be very good in 2013. They weren't really that good in 2012 until the playoffs. I also think it will be hard to keep Pierce off the field.
Ray Rice has had the luxury of no real competition and a Cam Cameron offense. Now he's got a good runner behind him and he's in an offense that doesn't run through the halfback anymore. I don't think it is wise to just blindly project his touches based on last year or the last few years.
I think it's fair to assume that Rice's workload won't be as high as in the past. I don't have him at 350+ touches. But I still think you're taking it way too far.
I also agree that Pierce has clearly deserved a bigger role. He's going to get 6-10 carries a game, maybe more.
I agree that BAL's D isn't going to be that good, which will probably prevent BAL from running it as much as they would like. But you still didn't answer my main concern......if you don't think BAL is going to run the ball more, then who is going to catch all these passes that won't go to the RBs? I would like to see where Flacco's 325-350 completions are going to if Rice and Pierce are only going to catch 45.
Also, maybe in the past Caldwell didn't throw much to the RBs. But I can tell you, he's never had a talented pass catching RB like Ray Rice, so just thinking that Caldwell will drastically reduce Rice's receptions is premature thinking. Good coaches adapt to the talent that's on the team.....and the talent on the Ravens' offense is at the RB position. Looking at the game logs, Rice has a decent amount of 3-4 catch games with Caldwell. He didn't play Week 17 and didn't catch the ball against DEN in the playoffs (but carried the ball 30 times....that was just a function of game strategy and probably won't be the norm). So in the 6 games under Caldwell where Rice could be in line for receptions....he caught 20 for about 3.3 a game.....equates to about 53. So if you want to use the small sample there, a more reasonable projection would be 50-60 receptions. Personally, I think Rice is too talented to be ignored in the passing game, so my projection is more near the 60-65 catch area, or about 4 per game.
You can disagree, that's fine. But I seriously think your projection is way too low. You are just assuming that Caldwell is going to limit Rice's recpetions and treating Caldwell's past history with RBs like gospel. I wouldn't be so sure about that. It could happen, but projecting 35 means you think Rice could catch even less than that. I would think 35-40 receptions would be Rice's absolute floor, not his median projection.
Yes. Yes I did address your question. I said that just because we can't predict where the passes will go doesn't mean that they won't happen. If you remove a team's top 3 receiving targets, they won't just go to an 80/20 run/pass ratio. That is silly. The passing attempts are going to have to happen. I don't have a crystal ball to tell you who they'll go to, but I assure you that the run/pass ratio isn't going to be altered drastically just because Boldin was traded. Also, since we both agree that the defense is going to be worse, it is entirely possible that they have less offensive plays per game. They ranked 9th last year.
And as Lott pointed out, Rice really had 17 rec in 6 games, for an extrapolated 45 rec in 16 games. But with my perception that Pierce gets a slightly bigger piece of the pie next year, I'd expect Rice's number to be a bit below that. If I had it to do over again, I'd probably project 40 receptions for Rice.
We can say what we want about Rice's receiving ability, but it doesn't change that Cam Cameron throws the ball to RBs a lot and that heavily contributed to Rice's reception totals. In 2007, when Cameron was the HC, the Miami RB's caught 110 passes. Since 2008, the Ravens RBs have caught 83, 115, 98, 104, and 91.
For Caldwell, RBs caught 70, 61, and 39 passes ('09, '10, '11). That 70 happened when the Peyton/Addai combo was still present in Indy. The team threw the ball 599 times in 2009 and 680 times in 2010.
If you are expecting 80+ RB receptions next year, I think you are being very optimistic. In the last 4 years (5 years ago Rice was in a time share so I'll exclude that), Rice has caught 278 of the Ravens' 408 RB receptions - 68%. With Pierce possibly pushing for a bigger role, it would be reasonable to expect that % to drop, but let's use that as a baseline. For him to catch 60 passes, the Ravens' RBs would have to catch 88 passes. For him to catch 70, they would have to catch 103. Color me skeptical, but I don't think Caldwell will have 88 RB receptions, much less 103. If we go with 70 RB receptions and Rice catches a healthy 60% of them, then we're at 42 receptions.
