Player Spotlight: Reggie Brown (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Reggie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[AeroFANatic]

While Reid will focus more on the run, someone has to catch the ball. Reggie steps more into the fold this season.

74 REC 962 Yards 6 TDs.

 

[Jason Wood]

At the risk of chants of "HOMER", I'm fairly optimistic about Reggie Brown's fantasy prospects in Year Two.

Obviously he's going to be thrust into the WR1 role whether he's ready or not, but it's difficult to argue with his productivity as a rookie.

43 receptions, 571 yards and 4 TDs

He led all rookie WRs in receiving yards and fantasy points, and finished 2nd among rookies in receptions (one shy of Mark Clayton's 44 receptions).

In a very complex offense, under less than ideal circumstances, Brown improved as the season wore on. His first 8 vs. last 8 split hints at some of his potential:

First 8 Games -- 14 receptions, 202 yards, 1 TD
Last 8 Games -- 29 receptions, 369 yards, 3 TDsWhen you consider he was catching passes from Mike McMahon :X for much of his 2nd half, it stands to reason he'll do better with a Pro Bowler like McNabb throwing him the ball.



Net-net...

1) He's the #1 without competition

2) McNabb is a massive upgrade over Mike McMahon (yet Brown was able to show steady progression last year with McMahon at the helm)

3) It's natural to expect steady improvement over a 2- to 3-year window as a young WR learns the NFL game and, in this case, a complex offense

Reggie Brown Projections

65 receptions
925 yards
14.2 yards per reception
7 TDs
135 fantasy points (FBG scoring)
200 fantasy points (PPR scoring)

 

[QB11]

Over the past three seasons, Philadelphia WR1 has averaged:

62 REC 858 YDS 7 TD

During the 2nd half of '05, Reggie Brown looked more & more like the #1 option. If he has a good offseason, he could improve on last years numbers and at least hit the average for Philly WR1.

2006 PREDDICTION:

65 REC 900 YDS 7 TD

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

 

[-OZ-]

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

Great posting. Nothing more to add here really, except that you might as well add my projections in.80 receptions, 1011 yards, 9 TD.

 

[Noahs Troopers]

72/865/5

Descent production from a 2nd year WR.

 

[Jon_Moore]

I'm not entirely certain he's suited for a #1, especially at this point in his career. He showed the ability to make some great catches, but he just doesn't seem ready to be a #1 receiver.

66 receptions 13.4 yards per reception 884 yards 6 touchdowns.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

Great posting. Nothing more to add here really, except that you might as well add my projections in.80 receptions, 1011 yards, 9 TD.

TY Sir.

 

[diesel7982]

72/865/5

Descent production from a 2nd year WR.

12 yards per catch?

 

[Noahs Troopers]

72/865/5

Descent production from a 2nd year WR.

12 yards per catch?

He averaged 13.3 last season, why is 12ypc such a shock?

 

[Jason Wood]

72/865/5

Descent production from a 2nd year WR.

12 yards per catch?

He averaged 13.3 last season, why is 12ypc such a shock?

Because Mike McMahon has a career yards per attempt of 5.6 whereas Donny Mac has a career YPA of 6.6 (and averaged 7.0 last year before getting hurt)...

 

[Assani Fisher]

He's the best.

 

[Assani Fisher]

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

No thats not the downside. The downside is that the Eagles don't go exactly against what they're saying they are going to do and they do run the ball more.

 

[diesel7982]

72/865/5

Descent production from a 2nd year WR.

12 yards per catch?

He averaged 13.3 last season, why is 12ypc such a shock?

Because Mike McMahon has a career yards per attempt of 5.6 whereas Donny Mac has a career YPA of 6.6 (and averaged 7.0 last year before getting hurt)...

And even then, very few WRs in this league average under 12.0 as a starter, and those that do arent young fast WRs in a very good passing offense.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

No thats not the downside. The downside is that the Eagles don't go exactly against what they're saying they are going to do and they do run the ball more.

Regardless of them sticking to the run plan or not, 6 years of historical numbers for McNabb throwing for over 200 yards a game is hard to dispute.Even when Duce Staley was part of the "three-headed monster", McNabb these kinds of numbers. That's why I went back that far (pre-Westy, pre-TO).

 

[ravnzfan]

66 receptions 13.4 yards per reception 884 yards 6 touchdowns.

I'll squeeze him him between you and Jeff, putting it somewhere around:70-905-7

for Reggie Brown

WR1 in Philly, but not huge WR1 #'s...certainly a great #2 FF dynasty guy, who should see slow but steady improvement over the next several years for the Iggles

 

[Finatic]

60-900-6

 

[joffer]

Definitely one spotlight I'm interested in reading, as I don't have much of an opinion on Brown right now. I didn't see him much in college, nor did I watch him very closely last year.

for now

 

[KnowledgeReignsSupreme]

Reggie Brown is currently WR28 according to MFL ADP ahead of the following WRs..

Jerry Porter

Mike Clayton

Rod Smith

Muhsin Muhammad

Drew Bennett

Eddie Kennison

K-Rob

I'm not so sure about that... Philly WRs not named TO usually have an upside around WR28.

1999 Torrance Small, WR53

2000 Charles Johnson, WR32

2001 James Thrash, WR24

2002 James Thrash, WR27

2003 Todd Pinkston, WR65

Does Reggie have more potential than the guys listed above? Sure. Does that mean he'll show it this year? Not necessarily.

It's not like this is the first time Reid has drafted a WR in the first two rounds either.

There's a lot of receptions to go around in Philly with Gaffney, LJ Smith and Westbrook on the team. As I stated in an earlier thread... is Brown a guy you HAVE to get involved in the game?

65 catches, 845 yards, 6 TDs.

I'd say he has a better chance of falling short of those projections than exceeding them.

 

[Byron_nyc]

Reggie Brown, second year pro, WR1, is _not_ how Eagles management planned it. Shutdown corners across the country are circling their calendars for the day they get to play the weakest, on paper, #1 WR, in the NFL. Think Nate Burleson, 2005. Big upside, but wouldn't you rather have Koren Robinson, Coles, or Ernest Wilford, guys you can get in the same, or later rounds?

50 catches, 600 yards, 3 TDs.

 

[Longrifle]

Brown being the #1 guy should get him at least a few more looks this season. But to evaluate Brown we need to look at who is throwing him the ball, D. McNabb. In McNabb's best season pre TO he threw only 25 TD's. So we can assume that this season an optimistic estimate for passing TD's by the Eagles offense would be 26 TD (based on the way the Eagles have developed into a pass first team). Now lets look at who is catching those passes ( Westbrook, Brown, Lewis, Gaffney, and Smith). Westbrook will catch his fair share of passes including TD's. The only other competition to Brown for the ball will be Smith. Last year Smith was a big part of the passing game and I see him becoming more used this season. So with all that said here are my projections for Brown

Rec 60

Yrds 630

TD 6

I do feel that this is slightly optimistic. So I don't see much up side to Brown.

 

[Armando]

Perhaps the most overrated dynasty prospect there is. He's a #1 WR by default in Philly.

I like the 50-60, 600 yard, 5 TD area. I see Lewis, Gaffney, and Brown splitting up the non-Westbrook and Smith catches. After 2006, they'll find a suitable #1 WR.

 

[Shiver44]

79 Catches

920 Yards

6 Touchhdowns

 

[-OZ-]

Reggie Brown, second year pro, WR1, is _not_ how Eagles management planned it. Shutdown corners across the country are circling their calendars for the day they get to play the weakest, on paper, #1 WR, in the NFL. Think Nate Burleson, 2005. Big upside, but wouldn't you rather have Koren Robinson, Coles, or Ernest Wilford, guys you can get in the same, or later rounds?

50 catches, 600 yards, 3 TDs.

Maybe, but whereas the Vikings had no running game or offensive line, Culpepper was attrocious, McNabb has proven to be effective with lesser WRs, the OL is better, and Westbrook will keep teams relatively honest and provide options.Brown >>> Burleson, but he might be overrated for this year. Still, as a dynasty prospect, I like the guy a lot, and have since before he was drafted.

 

[ShotGunStyle]

54/688/6

The Eagles spread the ball so much, and Westbrook is so dominating as a receiver, I don't see any Eagles WR with over 800 yards.

 

[mlball77]

54/688/6

The Eagles spread the ball so much, and Westbrook is so dominating as a receiver, I don't see any Eagles WR with over 800 yards.

I think these numbers seem about right and the justification for them is commonsensical.

 

[santo71]

Perhaps the most overrated dynasty prospect there is. He's a #1 WR by default in Philly.

I like the 50-60, 600 yard, 5 TD area. I see Lewis, Gaffney, and Brown splitting up the non-Westbrook and Smith catches. After 2006, they'll find a suitable #1 WR.

 

[ProdigyofParcells]

Reggie Brown is currently WR28 according to MFL ADP ahead of the following WRs..

Jerry Porter

Mike Clayton

Rod Smith

Muhsin Muhammad

Drew Bennett

Eddie Kennison

K-Rob

I'm not so sure about that... Philly WRs not named TO usually have an upside around WR28.

1999 Torrance Small, WR53

2000 Charles Johnson, WR32

2001 James Thrash, WR24

2002 James Thrash, WR27

2003 Todd Pinkston, WR65

Does Reggie have more potential than the guys listed above? Sure. Does that mean he'll show it this year? Not necessarily.

It's not like this is the first time Reid has drafted a WR in the first two rounds either.

There's a lot of receptions to go around in Philly with Gaffney, LJ Smith and Westbrook on the team. As I stated in an earlier thread... is Brown a guy you HAVE to get involved in the game?

65 catches, 845 yards, 6 TDs.

I'd say he has a better chance of falling short of those projections than exceeding them.

I see a spread the ball system with Brown being the chief beneficiary but this is a team returning Greg Lewis whom they like a lot, Gaffney who is a solid WR and could surprise, and gulp.... Todd Pinkston. One thing Brown has going for him as he is the biggest of the bunch and may be getting the 3rd down looks over the middle along with LJ. I like Pasquinos assessment on a best case scenario. Mcnabb isnt exactly a world beater as a passer minus TO.

 

[Tau837]

Over the past three seasons, Philadelphia WR1 has averaged:62 REC    858 YDS    7 TD

The last three Philly WR1s not named TO:2003: Thrash 49/558/12002: Thrash 52/635/62001: Thrash 66/833/8Average: 56/675/5Is Brown better than Thrash? Probably, though he hasn't proven that on the field yet. Is he as good as TO? No. So using TO numbers to project him probably isn't a great idea.I think splitting the difference is safer: 59/766/6, good for around WR35 last year.EDIT to correct Thrash's 2001 receiving yards and bump up the average & projection.

 

[-OZ-]

Anything's possible I suppose, but I'd like to hear why some projections have him dropping from his post-TO production as a rookie. (obviously it happens, Michael Clayton), but what evidence do we have to think it would here?

FWIW, Brown's 2nd half = 29 / 369 yards / 3 TDs, so over the season, that should give us a baseline of 58/738/6. I personally see him making improvements as a 2nd year WR, but do see the risk as he's called upon to be the #1 WR. (Side question - how many 2nd year WRs have been #1 WRs? Done well with the role?) I stand by by projection above, post #6, but more important, really want to hear why he'd fall below the 700/6 mark.

 

[Tau837]

His first 8 vs. last 8 split hints at some of his potential:

First 8 Games -- 14 receptions, 202 yards, 1 TD
Last 8 Games -- 29 receptions, 369 yards, 3 TDs...

Reggie Brown Projections

65 receptions
925 yards
14.2 yards per reception
7 TDs
135 fantasy points (FBG scoring)
200 fantasy points (PPR scoring)

I'd be interested to know how often this happens:1. Rookie improves significantly in second half of rookie season. Say a 50% improvement in fantasy points.

2. Taking those rookie season second half numbers and doubling them for a baseline, the player has more receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs in year two. That is, the rookie does better than just extend the second half improvement to a full season--he improves upon each category further.

 

[-OZ-]

I'd be interested to know how often this happens:

1. Rookie improves significantly in second half of rookie season. Say a 50% improvement in fantasy points.

2. Taking those rookie season second half numbers and doubling them for a baseline, the player has more receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs in year two. That is, the rookie does better than just extend the second half improvement to a full season--he improves upon each category further.

At least Once Granted, a much different situation, but meets your question.

 

[Jeff Pasquino]

Breakout WRs

The last paragraph sums it up - Year 2 is more common for a breakout.

 

[Tau837]

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons. That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

Westy hasn't broken 750 yards receiving, ever. LJ hasn't broken 700.

Give them both career years at 800 each, and 50% is still missing, or 1600 yards, at a minimum.

Brown is the clear #1 WR in town, so I have to give him 50% of the remainder at a minimum. That's 800 yards on the DOWNSIDE.

The upside is easily 1,000+.

I say the truth lies somewhere between 800 and 1100 yards, and I lean more towards the 4-digit number.

I project 75 receptions, 970 yards, 8 TD.

That's 145 FBG points, 220 PPR points. That puts him as #18 WR last season (on par with Eddie Kennison) for FBG, and about TJ Housh in a PPR league. Top 20 either way.

In years 2-5, without TO, McNabb averaged 209 passing yards per game. In years 6-7, mostly with TO, McNabb averaged 266 passing yards per game. I think it is certainly more reasonable to use 209 per game for this projection, which results in about 3350 on the season.McNabb also averaged just under 20 TD passes per season in the 4 years before TO. I could see a slight uptick to 22.

Philly RBs averaged 957/6 receiving per season from 2002-2005

Philly TEs averaged 658/5 receiving per season from 2002-2005

That's a total of 1615/11 gone, if we assume those averages are reasonably close to what will hold this year. No reason not to believe that with Westbrook & Smith anchoring those units.

That leaves 1635/11 for the WRs. Here is where Jeff and I diverge.

Hard to use last year to project a WR1 share, given that TO was WR1 for 7 games only, which skews the numbers a bit. But even in 2004, TO got only 49% of the receiving yards for WRs, though he did miss two games... he had 53% of the WR receiving yards in the 14 games he played.

And since McNabb joined the team, other than TO, the most receiving yards by any Eagles WR was 833 by Thrash in 2001. And the second highest was 676 by Pinkston in 2004. There just isn't a lot of precedent with this passing game, other than TO, a likely HOFer. I don't think anyone here thinks Brown is on TO's level. So I have a hard time seeing these lofty projections for Brown.

53% of 1635 is 867 yards. I think it is pretty unlikely he'll get much more than that, unless the Eagles throw for a lot more than 3350 yards.

 

[Tau837]

I'd be interested to know how often this happens:

1. Rookie improves significantly in second half of rookie season.  Say a 50% improvement in fantasy points.

2. Taking those rookie season second half numbers and doubling them for a baseline, the player has more receptions, receiving yards, and receiving TDs in year two.  That is, the rookie does better than just extend the second half improvement to a full season--he improves upon each category further.

At least Once Granted, a much different situation, but meets your question.

True, but that isn't what I was getting at, so I'd need to add a qualifier: Rookie catches at least 40 passes, or rookie scores at least 75 fantasy points, or something like that.

 

[the branded hand]

Obviously he's going to be thrust into the WR1 role whether he's ready or not, but it's difficult to argue with his productivity as a rookie.

43 receptions, 571 yards and 4 TDs

He led all rookie WRs in receiving yards and fantasy points, and finished 2nd among rookies in receptions (one shy of Mark Clayton's 44 receptions).

In a very complex offense, under less than ideal circumstances, Brown improved as the season wore on. His first 8 vs. last 8 split hints at some of his potential:

First 8 Games -- 14 receptions, 202 yards, 1 TD
Last 8 Games -- 29 receptions, 369 yards, 3 TDs1) He's the #1 without competition

2) McNabb is a massive upgrade over Mike McMahon (yet Brown was able to show steady progression last year with McMahon at the helm)

3) It's natural to expect steady improvement over a 2- to 3-year window as a young WR learns the NFL game and, in this case, a complex offense

The Eagles are claiming to run the ball, again.

I'm not buying it.

McNabb averages over 200 yards passing a game for the past 6 seasons.  That's 3200+ yards passing at a minimum this year, assuming 16 starts.

Who will he throw to?

Reggie, LJ Smith and Westy seem the logical choices.

I think ya'll are right. McNabb is the key to Reggie Brown having a good year. Reggie had a knack for hauling in that 30-35 yard strike every now and then for the last eight games. However twenty percent of his yardage and two of his four TD's for the season came in the last game against WAS. I'm not sure his stats from last seaon can be used to measure much except what can happen with a back-up QB throwing to a rookie WR on a 6-10 team whose defense ranked 23rd., went 0-6 in their division and couldn't stop throwing the ball. Sorry, post traumatic kicking in...

Let's please forget everything about last season for Philly, except the draft position it gave them!

With Brown, Gaffney, Lewis, LJ Smith, Westy, and Moats in the mix as red zone targets I have to think his TD's might not pile up, but that yardage may be where he'll have more of an impact this year, IMO. If he really tightened up during the offseason, then add 100 more yards and a TD to the following.

Projection - 76/970/5

 

[Snotbubbles]

McNabb also averaged just under 20 TD passes per season in the 4 years before TO. I could see a slight uptick to 22.

LOL! This is the one thing I love about this site...the mis-use of numbers. You should put a qualifier on your statement. McNabb threw for 21, 25, 17 and 16 TDs the 4 years prior to TO coming to town. 79/4 = 19.75 I see where you got your just under 20 TDs per season. YOU FORGOT TO QUALIFY IT. McNabb only played 10 games in 2002 so the numbers are misleading. Try running the numbers but instead of dividing by years, divide by games played to get a per game average.

 

[Tau837]

McNabb also averaged just under 20 TD passes per season in the 4 years before TO. I could see a slight uptick to 22.

LOL! This is the one thing I love about this site...the mis-use of numbers. You should put a qualifier on your statement. McNabb threw for 21, 25, 17 and 16 TDs the 4 years prior to TO coming to town. 79/4 = 19.75 I see where you got your just under 20 TDs per season. YOU FORGOT TO QUALIFY IT. McNabb only played 10 games in 2002 so the numbers are misleading. Try running the numbers but instead of dividing by years, divide by games played to get a per game average.

OK, so he threw 79 in 58 games in those 4 years. That's 1.36 per game, which scales in 16 games to... 21.8. I projected 22. I'm failing to see the big issue you have with this.

 

[Snotbubbles]

Your projecting a 2 TD increase based on numbers you came up with that were bad. Using more relevant numbers your 2 TD increase would project McNabb closer to 24 TDs. Big increase...especially if it Reggie Brown getting those extra TDs.

 

[Tau837]

Your projecting a 2 TD increase based on numbers you came up with that were bad. Using more relevant numbers your 2 TD increase would project McNabb closer to 24 TDs. Big increase...especially if it Reggie Brown getting those extra TDs.

Nope. I'm comfortable sticking with 22 for McNabb and what I projected above for Brown.

 

[Righetti]

I own Reggie and like his opportunity this year.. problem with DMcNabb (pre Owens) was that he passed the ball to everybody about equally.. What makes Westbrook so valuable is what will hurt Reggie Brown...

78/1001/5

 

[PahtyTom]

What is the word out of Philly on his progression so far this year?

 

[Alluro]

What is the word out of Philly on his progression so far this year?

Reggie is reportedly progressing well, however Hank Baskett has been the standout receiver all through the preseason. I look for Reggie to put up about 900 yds receiving but lose out big time in the TD department to Big Hank.

 

[intrinsic]

Reggie Brown, second year pro, WR1, is _not_ how Eagles management planned it. Shutdown corners across the country are circling their calendars for the day they get to play the weakest, on paper, #1 WR, in the NFL. Think Nate Burleson, 2005. Big upside, but wouldn't you rather have Koren Robinson, Coles, or Ernest Wilford, guys you can get in the same, or later rounds?50 catches, 600 yards, 3 TDs.

Perhaps the most overrated dynasty prospect there is. He's a #1 WR by default in Philly. I like the 50-60, 600 yard, 5 TD area. I see Lewis, Gaffney, and Brown splitting up the non-Westbrook and Smith catches. After 2006, they'll find a suitable #1 WR.

Thankfully some of you havent lost their minds!These quotes are what will be closer to the truth by years end for Brown IMO