Player Spotlight: Reggie Brown (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Reggie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[benbadman]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Brown, WR, Philadelphia Eagles

Player Page Link: Reggie Brown Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

Is Reggie Brown poised for a cliched 3rd season WR breakout? He was 2.03 (#35) in the 2005 draft, and seems to be a part of that 50% group of early WRs that are NOT busts (Mark Clayton & Braylon Edwards also in this category).2005: 43rec 571yd 4td

2006: 46rec 816yd 8td rec 1rushTD ---- his YPC went up 4 yards

-his two 100yd games were with McNabb, but he still had respectable fantasy WR3 numbers w/ Garcia at QB

Ok so 2007, the Eagles lose Stallworth, they add Kevin Curtis. So Reggie Brown is still probably their biggest passing TD option, even though Westbrook led the team in receptions and LJ smith also had 50 grabs. I think some of Westbrooks touches are reduced to keep him healthy and effective all season long, so if Westbrook only has 60 receptions like in 2005, Brown gets a few more targets. Brown also benefits from another productive offseason and being in the same offensive system as last year.

Reggie Brown 2007 projection

60 receptions 1020 yards 10 TDs combined (9rec 1 rush)-- still maintains his 17 yard average

Think Fred Barnett & Calvin Williams type numbers in their 90s heyday. With Reggie Brown you get a solid WR2 or a great WR3 play. I find it hard to predict a reception total higher than the 60s, when he is basically Option 2.5 in their passing game behind Westbrook and right there with LJ smith. If your league rewards *big play* TDs or long receptions, Reggie Brown is a good guy to have, 6 of his 46 catches were 40+ yards. McNabb finds a way to get this UGA receiver the deep ball, and over time I see Brown developing into a consistent receiver like fellow Bulldog alum Hines Ward.

edit- This is my first time taking a stab at a Player Spotlight thread, hope my input was helpful!

 

[shadyridr]

I was high on Brown last year but am down on him this year. I just think with McNabbs return from injury and their success late last year that Philly will be more of a running team. And Brown is basically just a deep threat. But he does have a nose for the endzone.

65 rec, 1050 yds, 8 tds, 100 yds rush, 1 tds

I have adjusted my #'s slightly as I was probably too high on Curtis. I owned Brown last year and he was a TD machine.

 

[redman]

Here is what Brown did in the games that Stallworth didn't play in (weeks 3, 5-7; neither guy played week 17) last year. Check out Brown's stats from those 4 games:

+----------+--------+-------------+----+| WK OPP | RSHYD | REC YD | TD |+----------+--------+-------------+----+| 3 sfo | 0 | 5 106 | 0 || 5 dal | 0 | 4 79 | 1 || 6 nor | 15 | 6 121 | 2 || 7 tam | 0 | 4 77 | 1 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+| TOTAL | 15 | 19 383 | 4 |+----------+--------+-------------+----+During those games his longest catches were 50, 40, 60 and 41, respectively. Brown is poised to break out. I won't predict production at the pace indicated above, but I do think that he's capable of: 65/1200/9 in that offense.

If McNabb goes down, all bets are off, so Brown effectively shares McNabb's injury risk.

 

[bostonfred]

In five years, Brian Westbrook has broken the 1000 yard rushing mark once, last year. He's broken 200 carries once, last year. He's broken 10 TDs two times, one of which was, you guessed it, last year. So the question is, why did Westbrook have his career year in 2006?

Westbrook had 613 yards for 4 rush TDs in his first eight games before McNabb went down. He had 858 and 6 rush TDs in his next eight games with Garcia. A big part of the reason why is that Westbrook ran the ball 119 times with McNabb. He had 153 with Garcia. Westbrook had caught 41 passes in his first eight games with McNabb. He had 40 passes in his next eight with Garcia. He had 438 receiving yards with McNabb, compared with 262 under Garcia.

Overall, the Eagles gave Westbrook four more touches per game with Garcia under center than they did with McNabb, who averaged just under four rushes per game. So the idea that Westbrook is taking on a bigger role with the team seems faulty to me - he just picked up the rushes that McNabb used to get.

As for the idea that Stallworth was the guy who took all of Reggie Brown's catches, I'm not so sure I agree with that, either. Stallworth had 38 catches last year. Brown had 46. I don't expect Brown to get all 38 of those catches - LJ Smith, Westbrook, and their #2 WR are all going to get some. But I do expect Brown to get more catches as the #1 in that offense. 60 receptions seems about right. Last year's Y/R seems a little high, too. Even if he maintains his 17.7 yards per reception (compared with 13.3 his rookie season) that will barely have him cracking 1000 yards. I like his TD production, though, and that may be what makes him a good mid round pick.

Call it 60 receptions, 1000 yards, 9 TDs.

 

[Jason Wood]

This fell through the cracks somehow...Reggie should be a topic of key consideration. He's improved steadily in each of his first two seasons, plays for a team that loves to throw the ball, and has the inside track on the WR1 job. Lots of people are playing it safe and projecting a WR20-WR25 type of season, but there is obviously upside beyond that. Or is there?

 

[BLOX]

I am targetting Brown in all of my leagues this season. Basically McNabb has proven that he is, when healthy, a stud for FF purposes. With Brown being the #1 WR with McNabb at the helm, the sky's the limit. I don't even know how to project his numbers, but he is going to be a top 10 WR this season. Over 1200 yards and double digit TDs would almost be a lock in my mind.

Of course if McNabb goes down, all bets are off, but I think that for the first time in a long time McNabb actually stays healthy this season.

 

[sholditch]

If McNabb plays 16:

73 for 1241 and 10 total scores = great value

if McNabb plays 12-14:

60 for 1020 and 7 scores = fair value

if McNabb plays 8-11:

55 for 825 and 5 scores = poor value

like above poster said, tied to McNabb's injury risk

 

[Hammerage]

Agree with most of the above projections.

With an effective/healthy McNabb 1200+ yds and 10+ TD's. I think having Curtis added to the team will actually help him and not hinder his progression. With the speed of Curtis it will be harder to double team Brown.

 

[shadyridr]

This fell through the cracks somehow...Reggie should be a topic of key consideration. He's improved steadily in each of his first two seasons, plays for a team that loves to throw the ball, and has the inside track on the WR1 job. Lots of people are playing it safe and projecting a WR20-WR25 type of season, but there is obviously upside beyond that. Or is there?

Here's where I am confused with my projections. For some reason I think Curtis becomes the WR1 (ie the more productive WR). From this post it would seem you think Brown will be. What are your thoughts on the Brown/Curtis tandem and who will be more productive. I will hang up and listen to the Philly homer cuz I may need to revise my projections for Brown's TDs to around 9 or so.

 

[The Man With No Name]

I am targetting Brown in all of my leagues this season. Basically McNabb has proven that he is, when healthy, a stud for FF purposes. With Brown being the #1 WR with McNabb at the helm, the sky's the limit. I don't even know how to project his numbers, but he is going to be a top 10 WR this season. Over 1200 yards and double digit TDs would almost be a lock in my mind.Of course if McNabb goes down, all bets are off, but I think that for the first time in a long time McNabb actually stays healthy this season.

In the 4 games Stallworth missed last season(games he was the #1 receiver), Brown had 19 catches for 383 yards, and 3 td's plus 1 carry for 15 yards and a td. They should have a better #2 (Curtis) than what they had when Stallworth was out last season, so that could impact his numbers as the #1, although Stallworth had some real good games with Brown as #2.

 

[Jason Wood]

This fell through the cracks somehow...Reggie should be a topic of key consideration. He's improved steadily in each of his first two seasons, plays for a team that loves to throw the ball, and has the inside track on the WR1 job. Lots of people are playing it safe and projecting a WR20-WR25 type of season, but there is obviously upside beyond that. Or is there?

Here's where I am confused with my projections. For some reason I think Curtis becomes the WR1 (ie the more productive WR). From this post it would seem you think Brown will be. What are your thoughts on the Brown/Curtis tandem and who will be more productive. I will hang up and listen to the Philly homer cuz I may need to revise my projections for Brown's TDs to around 9 or so.

Nominally, I don't see how Kevin Curtis could be the WR1 this year. He's adjusting to an entirely new offense and was a WR3 in his prior digs. The Eagles drafted Brown to be the team's WR1 and he's done nothing to dismiss that belief in his first two seasons. They are both "starters" and, as such, I think their numbers could be closer to parity than some believe, but if there's going to be a go-to WR this season, I don't see how it's not Reggie Brown.

 

[shadyridr]

This fell through the cracks somehow...Reggie should be a topic of key consideration. He's improved steadily in each of his first two seasons, plays for a team that loves to throw the ball, and has the inside track on the WR1 job. Lots of people are playing it safe and projecting a WR20-WR25 type of season, but there is obviously upside beyond that. Or is there?

Here's where I am confused with my projections. For some reason I think Curtis becomes the WR1 (ie the more productive WR). From this post it would seem you think Brown will be. What are your thoughts on the Brown/Curtis tandem and who will be more productive. I will hang up and listen to the Philly homer cuz I may need to revise my projections for Brown's TDs to around 9 or so.

Nominally, I don't see how Kevin Curtis could be the WR1 this year. He's adjusting to an entirely new offense and was a WR3 in his prior digs. The Eagles drafted Brown to be the team's WR1 and he's done nothing to dismiss that belief in his first two seasons. They are both "starters" and, as such, I think their numbers could be closer to parity than some believe, but if there's going to be a go-to WR this season, I don't see how it's not Reggie Brown.

Yeah you make a good point. Time to move Reggie up my draft board. I guess Ive just always been high on Curtis but the whole "new system, new team" angle was something I was sleeping on.

 

[shadyridr]

My adjustment has him ranked about WR17 or so which seems about right to me.