Player Spotlight: Reggie Bush & Deuce McAllister (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Reggie Bush & Deuce McAllister, RBs, New Orleans Saints

Player Page Link:

Reggie Bush Player Page

Player Page Link: Deuce McAllister Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[diesel7982]

No time to post the rationalization, but Ill throw out my numbers

Bush:

180 carries, 875 yards, 6 TDs

65 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TDs

Deuce:

190 carries, 750 yards, 5 TDs

25 receptions, 150 yards, 1 TDs

 

[Musesboy]

One of two things could happen in New Orleans: Deuce McAllister could get stronger as the year goes on as he tries to recover from his ACL injury, or he could start to lose carries to Reggie Bush if he shows that he is not fully effective. McAllister has looked slow and less explosive in recent years, even when healthy, and I expect the lingering effects from his injury to keep his yards per carry below 4.

I expect the pair to begin the season with similar roles to those that Bush and LenDale White had at USC last year. McAllister will likely be given White's role and will be used to wear down the defense and carry in short yardage and goal line situations. The Saints will want to get Bush on the field as he can make things happen. If the balance is right, they can stop McAllister from wearing down while Bush can provide a different kind of threat. I think we will see Bush used in the return game and on third down, as well as when McAllister needs a breather.

The Saints have not been very good for a while now, and so I don't expect their offense to suddenly click and start scoring TDs at will, but Bush will undoubtedly give them a lift. The prospect of playing at home after last year's tragedy in New Orleans should also lift the team.

Prediction

Deuce McAllister

280 carries 1050 yards 7 TDs

15 receptions 100 yards 0 TDs

Reggie Bush

170 carries 825 yards 4 TDs

50 receptions 425 yards 3 TDs

 

[lebowski]

No time to post the rationalization, but Ill throw out my numbers

Bush:

180 carries, 875 yards, 6 TDs

65 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TDs

I would like to hear rationalization for this! That is a pretty bold prediction. That is not to complain I just don't have any idea what NO is thinking for using these two backs together.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

Where in the backfield is Reggie Bush?

By Adam Schefter

NFL Analyst

Adam Schefter's "Around the League" reports and commentaries can be seen regularly on NFL Total Access.

(June 30, 2006) -- Fireworks will not be exclusive to July Fourth. They'll also be in New Orleans' offense this season.

The Saints will be using first-round pick Reggie Bush and running back Deuce McAllister on the field at the same time this season, just as they did throughout the team's mini-camps and Organized Team Activities.

Exactly how they will be used is the mystery, but Saints officials expect New Orleans' offense to often look like USC's, where Bush lined up all over the field and LenDale White lined up at running back.

Sean Payton has big plans for Reggie Bush.

In New Orleans, Bush would serve the same role, but McAllister would replace White, with Pro Bowl quarterback Drew Brees directing the offense. These offensive weapons, combined with new head coach Sean Payton's play calls, should make New Orleans one of the league's more dynamic offenses.

Bush's role also will go beyond playing running back/wide receiver.

He has been working on catching punts after mini-camp practices, and the Saints are planning to try him at punt returner, and quite possibly kickoff returner. The more they can use Bush, the more problems it would present to opposing teams.

And while Bush will be one concern for opponents, McAllister will be another. Saints officials say he is 85 percent recovered from his knee surgery, and is expecting to be full go by the time training camp opens in late July.

The Saints will monitor McAllister closely, but they also will use him with Bush frequently.

Sure sounds like Bush and Deuce will be on the field alot together. With Bush's receiving ability it only makes sense. Between Brees, Bush, Deuce, Horn and Stallworth defenses will have alot to account for with the NO offense.Bush

190/900/7

64/640/6

Deuce

240/1000/7

16/120/0

 

[rzrback77]

I enjoy pulling for the Saints from the Central Mississippi area and this year they move their training camp to Jackson. But, I am having trouble with the projections for these two running backs. I know that Deuce has been great and Reggie's potential is enormous, but I don't think folks are being realistic.

Saints running backs have rushed for 1379 yds in 04 and 1381 yds in 05. They bring it a multi-talented rookie and return Deuce McAllister from knee surgery. Modern medicine must have made leaps and bounds lately as it seems to me all of the guys returning from knee injuries in less than a year are being predicted for grand seasons. In addition, New Orleans has a new head coach and a new offensive line coach. They also lost two of their stalwarts on thr OL. Yet their FBG projection is for over 1900 yards rushing. I just don't see it.

I also looked at the USOS and their running backs have a middle of the pack rating. The ones for QB and WR are among the toughest. They also have a new QB and I'll grant you he has to be a better leader than Aaron Brooks, but he is coming off shoulder surgery and even he is expected to improve from the Saints last year and from his last season with SD.

I think that Deuce will not be totally ready to go and will be brought along slowly. Bush will be an awesome weapon, catching passes from a variety of positions and will be a nice fantasy option in PPR leagues.

Deuce McAllister 165 carries for 660 yards 4.0 ypc and 5 TDs, with 20 catches for 110 yards and 1 TD.

Reggie Bush 140 carries for 714 yards 5.1 ypc and 5 TDs, with 70 catches for 730 yards and 3 TDs.

 

[lebowski]

This is such a difficult offense to project this year. Saints Rushed for 1592yds on 389 carries in 2004 and 1695 yds on 422 carries in 2006. However, a new coach and the addition of Reggie Bush HAS to change this. I definately see more running this year. Also, it looks like the Saints will have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year. All these factors make it very difficult to predict this year.

It sounds like Reggie Bush will be all over the field at both RB and WR. I could see him taking on more of a Bryan Westbrook type role (10-15 carries/ game 5-6 receptions). Don't forget that McAllister was rated pretty high the last couple years but is coming back from knee surgery. I'm guessing he will be used sparingly because of this (also 10-15 carries a game.) So here are my projections...

Reggie Bush

Rushing- 192 carries 835 yards 3 TDS

Recieving- 60 receptions 540 yards 4 TDS

Deuce McAllister

Rushing- 224 carries 945 yards 5 TDS

Recieving- 10 receptions 90 yds 0 TDS

 

[IndyHavoc]

I enjoy pulling for the Saints from the Central Mississippi area and this year they move their training camp to Jackson. But, I am having trouble with the projections for these two running backs. I know that Deuce has been great and Reggie's potential is enormous, but I don't think folks are being realistic.

Saints running backs have rushed for 1379 yds in 04 and 1381 yds in 05. They bring it a multi-talented rookie and return Deuce McAllister from knee surgery. Modern medicine must have made leaps and bounds lately as it seems to me all of the guys returning from knee injuries in less than a year are being predicted for grand seasons. In addition, New Orleans has a new head coach and a new offensive line coach. They also lost two of their stalwarts on thr OL. Yet their FBG projection is for over 1900 yards rushing. I just don't see it.

I also looked at the USOS and their running backs have a middle of the pack rating. The ones for QB and WR are among the toughest. They also have a new QB and I'll grant you he has to be a better leader than Aaron Brooks, but he is coming off shoulder surgery and even he is expected to improve from the Saints last year and from his last season with SD.

I think that Deuce will not be totally ready to go and will be brought along slowly. Bush will be an awesome weapon, catching passes from a variety of positions and will be a nice fantasy option in PPR leagues.

Deuce McAllister 165 carries for 660 yards 4.0 ypc and 5 TDs, with 20 catches for 110 yards and 1 TD.

Reggie Bush 140 carries for 714 yards 5.1 ypc and 5 TDs, with 70 catches for 730 yards and 3 TDs.

Sorry to break format, but my eyes were rolling in my head repeatedly reading a couple of the previous projections. I'm not sure if it's 100%, totally unheard of for a teams RB's to increase their production by a factor of 2x....but it's gotta be really rare. There's just too many variables in NO this year to be projecting that kind of overall incrase from the RB position. Thank you, Mr. Voice-of-Reason.

 

[Ben Stiller]

FWIW

2003 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Rushing Stats

446 carries for 1488 yards (3.3) 10 TD

2004 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Rushing Stats

618 carries for 2464 yards (4.0) 16 TD

Not saying the Saints rushing attack will improve that much but consider that they have upgraded at QB, will get their top WR and RB back healthy (Deuce & Horn) and have added what most consider to be the best collegiate player in years.

 

[lebowski]

FWIW

2003 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Rushing Stats

446 carries for 1488 yards (3.3) 10 TD

2004 Pittsburgh Steelers Team Rushing Stats

618 carries for 2464 yards (4.0) 16 TD

Not saying the Saints rushing attack will improve that much but consider that they have upgraded at QB, will get their top WR and RB back healthy (Deuce & Horn) and have added what most consider to be the best collegiate player in years.

I don't see a huge increase but to draft Reggie Bush and not use him would be crazy IMHO. It only seems logical that the team will run the ball more with tow good backs. Still one of the tougher projections to make this year.

 

[joffer]

Bush

150/725/4

47/550/3

Deuce

193/756/5

27/233/1

I think some are forgetting (again) just how much RBs struggle less than a year after a torn ACL. Deuce wasn't looking all that great before the injury last year.

 

[Marvelous]

How old is Duece? I was wondering if age was catching up to him prior to his injury.

 

[diesel7982]

How old is Duece? I was wondering if age was catching up to him prior to his injury.

Drafted in the same year as LT and Vick.

 

[Gold Plated Nails]

How old is Duece? I was wondering if age was catching up to him prior to his injury.

I think he is 27

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I enjoy pulling for the Saints from the Central Mississippi area and this year they move their training camp to Jackson.  But, I am having trouble with the projections for these two running backs.  I know that Deuce has been great and Reggie's potential is enormous, but I don't think folks are being realistic.

Saints running backs have rushed for 1379 yds in 04 and 1381 yds in 05.  They bring it a multi-talented rookie and return Deuce McAllister from knee surgery.  Modern medicine must have made leaps and bounds lately as it seems to me all of the guys returning from knee injuries in less than a year are being predicted for grand seasons.  In addition, New Orleans has a new head coach and a new offensive line coach.  They also lost two of their stalwarts on thr OL.  Yet their FBG projection is for over 1900 yards rushing.  I just don't see it.

I also looked at the USOS and their running backs have a middle of the pack rating.  The ones for QB and WR are among the toughest.  They also have a new QB and I'll grant you he has to be a better leader than Aaron Brooks, but he is coming off shoulder surgery and even he is expected to improve from the Saints last year and from his last season with SD.

I think that Deuce will not be totally ready to go and will be brought along slowly.  Bush will be an awesome weapon, catching passes from a variety of positions and will be a nice fantasy option in PPR leagues.

Deuce McAllister 165 carries for 660 yards 4.0 ypc and 5 TDs, with 20 catches for 110 yards and 1 TD.

Reggie Bush 140 carries for 714 yards 5.1 ypc and 5 TDs, with 70 catches for 730 yards and 3 TDs.

Sorry to break format, but my eyes were rolling in my head repeatedly reading a couple of the previous projections. I'm not sure if it's 100%, totally unheard of for a teams RB's to increase their production by a factor of 2x....but it's gotta be really rare. There's just too many variables in NO this year to be projecting that kind of overall incrase from the RB position. Thank you, Mr. Voice-of-Reason.

I don't think anyone believes Bush, Deuce & Co. will double the Saints RB output from last year (that would be 2800 yards rushing). I don't think it's a stretch to think they could better last's year's RB production by 500-600 yards.When great RBs are added to a team their rushing numbers often go up drastically:

88 Lions 4-12 (pre-Sanders) 1243 yards rushing

89 Lions 7-9 (Sanders rookie) 2053 yards rushing

Difference 810 yards

00 Chargers 1-15 (pre-LT) 1062 yards rushing

01 Chargers 5-11 (LT rookie) 1695 yards rushing

Difference 633 yards

 

[JimmyD]

A few things worry me about this whole situation.

1. DM injury was pretty bad. I don't see how he can come back and be effective this year.

2. Bush is a rookie and it will be hard for his production to outperform his draft slot.

3. I think having Bush and Duece on the field is not a good idea. Using Bush in motion and lining him up in different locations is good, but if they use these two for a good portion of the game, I don't think Bush will be running the ball as much. I think he'd be best served with an extra blocker that he can use to set up his explosive cut backs having Duece looses that extra blocker.

So here are my two projections, one set will be dropped once I know more.

Duece is healthy and they are used at the same time:

DM - 230/920/6 - 20/120/0

RB - 80/480/6 - 40/400/1

If Duece isn't able to take the load.

DM - 50/200/1 - 0/0/0

RB - 300/1250/8 - 30/300/1

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I don't think anyone believes Bush, Deuce & Co. will double the Saints RB output from last year (that would be 2800 yards rushing). I don't think it's a stretch to think they could better last's year's RB production by 500-600 yards.

When great RBs are added to a team their rushing numbers often go up drastically:

88 Lions 4-12 (pre-Sanders) 1243 yards rushing

89 Lions 7-9 (Sanders rookie) 2053 yards rushing

Difference 810 yards

00 Chargers 1-15 (pre-LT) 1062 yards rushing

01 Chargers 5-11 (LT rookie) 1695 yards rushing

Difference 633 yards

Well, that's when Sanders replaces Garry James (who?) and LT2 replaces the dual-headed combo of Fazende/Fletcher.We're talking about a All-Pro RB who's already in the system here. It's not the same.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I don't  think anyone believes Bush, Deuce & Co. will double the Saints RB output from last year (that would be 2800 yards rushing).  I don't think it's a stretch to think they could better last's year's RB production by 500-600 yards.

When great RBs are added to a team their rushing numbers often go up drastically:

88 Lions 4-12 (pre-Sanders) 1243 yards rushing

89 Lions 7-9  (Sanders rookie) 2053 yards rushing

Difference 810 yards

00 Chargers 1-15 (pre-LT) 1062 yards rushing

01 Chargers 5-11 (LT rookie) 1695 yards rushing

Difference 633 yards

Well, that's when Sanders replaces Garry James (who?) and LT2 replaces the dual-headed combo of Fazende/Fletcher.We're talking about a All-Pro RB who's already in the system here. It's not the same.

That All-Pro RB you're referring to played 4 1/2 games last year. Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker were the Saints leading rushers. I'd say they're very comparable to the stiffs you listed above. I'm not saying that Bush will be the next LT or Sanders but it's not far-fetched to think the Saints O and running game will be vastly improved this year.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I don't think anyone believes Bush, Deuce & Co. will double the Saints RB output from last year (that would be 2800 yards rushing). I don't think it's a stretch to think they could better last's year's RB production by 500-600 yards.

When great RBs are added to a team their rushing numbers often go up drastically:

88 Lions 4-12 (pre-Sanders) 1243 yards rushing

89 Lions 7-9 (Sanders rookie) 2053 yards rushing

Difference 810 yards

00 Chargers 1-15 (pre-LT) 1062 yards rushing

01 Chargers 5-11 (LT rookie) 1695 yards rushing

Difference 633 yards

Well, that's when Sanders replaces Garry James (who?) and LT2 replaces the dual-headed combo of Fazende/Fletcher.We're talking about a All-Pro RB who's already in the system here. It's not the same.

That All-Pro RB you're referring to played 4 1/2 games last year. Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker were the Saints leading rushers. I'd say they're very comparable to the stiffs you listed above. I'm not saying that Bush will be the next LT or Sanders but it's not far-fetched to think the Saints O and running game will be vastly improved this year.

I agree it will be vastly improved over last year. I just don't think Bush will contribute at the levels predicted here unless Deuce is dead. That's an '07 event.

 

[diesel7982]

A few things worry me about this whole situation.

1.  DM injury was pretty bad.  I don't see how he can come back and be effective this year.

2.  Bush is a rookie and it will be hard for his production to outperform his draft slot.

3.  I think having Bush and Duece on the field is not a good idea.  Using Bush in motion and lining him up in different locations is good, but if they use these two for a good portion of the game, I don't think Bush will be running the ball as much.  I think he'd be best served with an extra blocker that he can use to set up his explosive cut backs having Duece looses that extra blocker.

So here are my two projections, one set will be dropped once I know more.

Duece is healthy and they are used at the same time:

DM - 230/920/6 - 20/120/0

RB  - 80/480/6 - 40/400/1

If Duece isn't able to take the load.

DM - 50/200/1 - 0/0/0

RB  - 300/1250/8 - 30/300/1

Bush is going to average 6.0 ypc but they'll only give him 80 carries if Deuce is healthy?And then if Deuce isnt healthy, Bush will get 300 carries but his ypc will go down to 4.16 AND he'll catch 10 less passes?

Do you realize you are projecting the Saints to run the ball MORE when Deuce is injured than when healthy?

Also, why would Deuce have 1 catch per 11 carries when healthy, but zero catches in the scenario where he gets hurt?

Something just isnt right here...

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I don't  think anyone believes Bush, Deuce & Co. will double the Saints RB output from last year (that would be 2800 yards rushing).  I don't think it's a stretch to think they could better last's year's RB production by 500-600 yards.

When great RBs are added to a team their rushing numbers often go up drastically:

88 Lions 4-12 (pre-Sanders) 1243 yards rushing

89 Lions 7-9  (Sanders rookie) 2053 yards rushing

Difference 810 yards

00 Chargers 1-15 (pre-LT) 1062 yards rushing

01 Chargers 5-11 (LT rookie) 1695 yards rushing

Difference 633 yards

Well, that's when Sanders replaces Garry James (who?) and LT2 replaces the dual-headed combo of Fazende/Fletcher.We're talking about a All-Pro RB who's already in the system here. It's not the same.

That All-Pro RB you're referring to played 4 1/2 games last year. Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker were the Saints leading rushers. I'd say they're very comparable to the stiffs you listed above. I'm not saying that Bush will be the next LT or Sanders but it's not far-fetched to think the Saints O and running game will be vastly improved this year.

I agree it will be vastly improved over last year. I just don't think Bush will contribute at the levels predicted here unless Deuce is dead. That's an '07 event.

Fair enough, what is your prediction for Reggie Bush this year?

 

[MelvinTScupper]

I don't think anyone believes Bush, Deuce & Co. will double the Saints RB output from last year (that would be 2800 yards rushing). I don't think it's a stretch to think they could better last's year's RB production by 500-600 yards.

When great RBs are added to a team their rushing numbers often go up drastically:

88 Lions 4-12 (pre-Sanders) 1243 yards rushing

89 Lions 7-9 (Sanders rookie) 2053 yards rushing

Difference 810 yards

00 Chargers 1-15 (pre-LT) 1062 yards rushing

01 Chargers 5-11 (LT rookie) 1695 yards rushing

Difference 633 yards

Well, that's when Sanders replaces Garry James (who?) and LT2 replaces the dual-headed combo of Fazende/Fletcher.We're talking about a All-Pro RB who's already in the system here. It's not the same.

That All-Pro RB you're referring to played 4 1/2 games last year. Antowain Smith and Aaron Stecker were the Saints leading rushers. I'd say they're very comparable to the stiffs you listed above. I'm not saying that Bush will be the next LT or Sanders but it's not far-fetched to think the Saints O and running game will be vastly improved this year.

I agree it will be vastly improved over last year. I just don't think Bush will contribute at the levels predicted here unless Deuce is dead. That's an '07 event.

Fair enough, what is your prediction for Reggie Bush this year?

150-550-4 -- something like that.40 receptions....

Good RB4 production, but no better, unless Deuce never returns to form.

 

[JimmyD]

A few things worry me about this whole situation.

1.  DM injury was pretty bad.  I don't see how he can come back and be effective this year.

2.  Bush is a rookie and it will be hard for his production to outperform his draft slot.

3.  I think having Bush and Duece on the field is not a good idea.  Using Bush in motion and lining him up in different locations is good, but if they use these two for a good portion of the game, I don't think Bush will be running the ball as much.  I think he'd be best served with an extra blocker that he can use to set up his explosive cut backs having Duece looses that extra blocker.

So here are my two projections, one set will be dropped once I know more.

Duece is healthy and they are used at the same time:

DM - 230/920/6 - 20/120/0

RB  - 80/480/6 - 40/400/1

If Duece isn't able to take the load.

DM - 50/200/1 - 0/0/0

RB  - 300/1250/8 - 30/300/1

Bush is going to average 6.0 ypc but they'll only give him 80 carries if Deuce is healthy?And then if Deuce isnt healthy, Bush will get 300 carries but his ypc will go down to 4.16 AND he'll catch 10 less passes?

Do you realize you are projecting the Saints to run the ball MORE when Deuce is injured than when healthy?

Also, why would Deuce have 1 catch per 11 carries when healthy, but zero catches in the scenario where he gets hurt?

Something just isnt right here...

1. I think Bush will average a high ypc if only given a few carries a game, just because the types of carries he'll see out of this type of two back offense will be set up to use his speed and moves out in space. 2. Yes the more carries he gets getting closer to 15-20 a game his ypc will go down to around 4ypc just because he'll be running off tackle a lot more and not getting just the runs that get him out in space. Gotta keep the defense honest.

3. Yes, I think that with Duece and Bush on the field the Saints will be able to throw more screen passes and utilize him in motion, allowing them to throw a little more, again hoping to keep Duece fresh all season. Also if Duece is injured this two back set is lost, thus pulling Bush in as the featured tail back. The other reason why I think they will run more without Deuce is because of Bush. I think no matter what style they play they will try and get Bush the ball. So with Duece I see them throwing a little more trying to get Bush the ball. Without Duece Bush will be the tailback and the best way to get him the ball is to hand it to him.

4. If healthy I think we will see him get some screen passes and things of that nature, if he isn't healthy I don't think he will do much in the passing game at all, very little, small enough to not worry about it, like a total of 5-6 points over the entire season.

However, training camp and a couple preseason games should give us a very good idea of how the Saints plan on using these two guys.

 

[lebowski]

However, training camp and a couple preseason games should give us a very good idea of how the Saints plan on using these two guys.

I hope so!

 

[Gr00vus]

it looks like the Saints will have one of the worst offensive lines in the league this year. All these factors make it very difficult to predict this year.

If this is true it will be a long season for the Saints offense. As a Charger fan I can tell you Brees is a very below average, tending to suckage qb when he doesn't get adequate protection. He still can't handle pressure and is in no way mobile. If you get in his grill bad things happen for the offense. He had the big year in 2004 largely due to very improved offensive line play, he fell off a bit in 2005 due to somewhat poorer offensive line play. The Charger offensive line in 2003 was awful.If it goes that way, N.O. will be hurting on offense overall - however it may mean more dump off passes, which would benefit whoever fils the pass catching back role. I suppose people are assuming that would be Bush.I'm going to avoid Saints in general this year unless the price is very right.I think Duece is done, I think he ends up losing time not only to Bush, but to the other backs on the team.As for Bush: 600 yds rushing, 4 tds, 400 receiving, 2 tds, 350 yds kr, 1 td if they let him (and they should)

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

There are a few red flags that should be raised about some projections here.

1.) The most that Deuce ever toted the rock was 351 times in 2003, an average of 21.9 carries a game, consisting of about 73% of total rushes and just under 91% of RB rushes. Now I'm seeing this 15-20 number bandied about a little liberally here and think to myself, the most he's ever averaged is 21.9 when he was healthy and had little to no competition (2nd leading rusher besided Brooks was Ki-Jana Carter) so how can he even fathom reaching 20 carries a game comming off a major surgery and with a young superstar nipping at his heels?

2.) As for those who say that he could approach 15-20 later on in the season when he regains his health, his average touches/game fell off in 2004 (19.4) and was continuing to slide in 2005 (18.6) Along with that came his YPC on the decline with it and in in 2005 pre-injury, almost 40% of his rushing yardage came from one game. Out of the remaining four games, he broke 15 carries only once, and had YPC's of 2.5, 3.0, 4.5 and 2.8.

3.) The Saints have never been a run-first team. Under Haslett, the rushes rank as follow (entire NFL) 22, 26, 11, 20, 20, 7 but in the two above-average years, QB's had 57 and 98 carries total out of 448 and 505 carries respectively. Do the math and you will realize that 400 touches for all RB's should be the absolute cap. Note that both Ricky Williams and Deuce McCalister were on the 505 (407 for RB's) carry team. So dont assume that the addition of Reggie Bush automatically pushes them over 400 to a great deal.

4.) I honestly don't know much about Sean Payton but I do know that all of his QB's broke 3,000 yards and that he heavily favors the pass. Upon joining the eagles in 1997, the 96' birds ranked 9 in completions and 12th in pass attempts, in 97 they were 4th and 5th respectively. In 98 the Giants ranked 27th in attempts and 18th in completions, and (with Payton taking over the QB coach position) in 99, the eagles ranked 2nd and 3rd respectively. As Offensive Coordinator, despite a drop in 2000's stats, completions and attempts were back to 7th and 5th respectively in 2001. As QB coach for the Cowboys in 2004-5, both Vinny Testaverde had their 3rd best yardage campaign in their careers.

Just some food for thought there. Here are my projections:

Deuce Mcallister 210 carries for 790 yards and 6-7 TD's

Reggie Bush 130 carries for 630 yards and 4-5 TD's

Stecker, Bennett, etc. 55 carries for 200 yards and 1-2 TD's

 

[cobalt_27]

Bush

150/725/4

47/550/3

Deuce

193/756/5

27/233/1

This is correct.

 

[MLBrandow]

Can't believe that you guys think this is going to be a half/half break.

Deuce is the starting RB.

Bush is the 3DB + WR2.

Both will see significant time in double backfield formations.

This team will run a lot more than it has in the past. Teams with two solid RB threats tend to run the ball upwards of 500-550 times a season, around 30-33 attempts a game.

Being that NO is expected to suck, and I wouldn't give them more than 6 wins, with their slightly improved defense, we'd likely temper our expectations to around 460-475 (slightly up from their 3-year average).

Deuce McAllister

290/1150/13, 37/300/1 = 1450/14

Reggie Bush

95/550/3, 45/525/6 = 1075/9

I'll be drinking that down it all season.

 

[joffer]

Deuce McAllister290/1150/13, 37/300/1 = 1450/14

is there any precedent for #s like that the year after an ACL tear?Edge went 277/989/2 rushing, 61/354/1 receiving

 

[Musesboy]

Deuce McAllister

290/1150/13, 37/300/1 = 1450/14

is there any precedent for #s like that the year after an ACL tear?Edge went 277/989/2 rushing, 61/354/1 receiving

The closest example I can think of is Jamal Lewis in 2002308/1327/6 and 47/442/1 receiving

 

[MLBrandow]

Deuce is a beast with a one of the best work ethics in the league. He'll be full-steam for the season.

 

[TLEF316]

all i know is im glad i traded deuce to the likely bush owner. I want no part of this situation this year.

I cant see Deuce being anything more than a bad Rb3/Flex guy this year. The injury was bad abd he didnt look good before it. Add in the reduced carries and you have a very mediocre player.

Bush will have his highlight reel plays, but unless your league is PPR, i wouldnt want deuce as anything more than a borderline RB2. (and you know he wont fall that far in most leagues) He's an all-world talent, but the NO line isnt a teriffic unit and wasnt very sucessful last year. There will be an adjustment period while he figures out how to hit holes that arent 10 feet wide.

Im not one to make projections, but id say....

Deuce- 150 Carries 575 yards 5 TD's

25 catches 150 yds 1 TD

reggie- 200 Carries 820 Yards 7 TD's

45 catches- 420 yards 4 TD's

 

[diesel7982]

Deuce is a beast with a one of the best work ethics in the league. He'll be full-steam for the season.

Remember when Deuce showed up fat in 2004 and blobbed his way to his worst season as a starter in 2004?Was that part of that work ethic?

 

[Jiggyonthehut]

Can't believe that you guys think this is going to be a half/half break.

Deuce is the starting RB.

Bush is the 3DB + WR2.

Both will see significant time in double backfield formations.

Couldnt agree more. Im not willing to make it an even 60/40 split but the proportion will probably be close-- i have it pegged at 57/43 i believe

This team will run a lot more than it has in the past. Teams with two solid RB threats tend to run the ball upwards of 500-550 times a season, around 30-33 attempts a game.

Hmm, heres where I start to disagree. With Ricky Williams AND Deuce Mcallister on the roster the saints only got 407 rushes out of RBs total. In fact, that year was the most rushes (505) total in the Haslett era. The Saints have never been a rush first team (having ranked above 20th in the NFL only TWO times during Haslett's tenure) and adding Payton will not change that. See my earlier post for the facts on that. Payton's a throw first guy period. Now he has brees. In fact, I'd be surprised if Mcallister and Bush crack 375 and downright shocked if they crack 400. Anything more than 425 is, to me, an impossibility. Remember that they have stecker and bennett on the roster too and at least one will remain. Stecker has gotten 50+ touches each of the last two seasons and 90+ in 2005. I wouldnt be surprised if all the Saints RB's total dont crack 400-425 total touches.

Deuce McAllister

290/1150/13, 37/300/1 = 1450/14

Reggie Bush

95/550/3, 45/525/6 = 1075/9

Here i think you have it wrong. Again the most times that Deuce has toted the rock in a single season is 351 in 2003- when he had almost 91% of the team's total touches for a Running Back. Deuce only managed 269 touches in an relatively injury free 2004 campaign. To give him more touches while comming back from a major surgery is really questionable. With Reggie Bush on board and the pressure on the FO to play him, to peg him at that high of a level is (sorry to say) absurd. Are you really thinking that he stays perfectly healthy through a 16 game season? Come on, if he misses even 1 game, then youve got him at almost 20 carries a game. If he misses three games then youve got him pegged at a new career high average. And I'd say missing three games is a pretty damn good possibility--enough to temper my first projectionsso give Reggie a slight bump. Him and the backups.

Deuce McAllister: 210 carries 775 yards and 7 TD's

Reggie Bush: 160 carries 650 yards and 4-5 TD's

Stecker, Bennett, others: 75 carries, 280 yards and 2-3 TD's

Totals: 455 carries for 1705 yards and 13-15 TD's

 

[cstu]

A few things worry me about this whole situation.

1. DM injury was pretty bad. I don't see how he can come back and be effective this year.

2. Bush is a rookie and it will be hard for his production to outperform his draft slot.

3. I think having Bush and Duece on the field is not a good idea. Using Bush in motion and lining him up in different locations is good, but if they use these two for a good portion of the game, I don't think Bush will be running the ball as much. I think he'd be best served with an extra blocker that he can use to set up his explosive cut backs having Duece looses that extra blocker.

So here are my two projections, one set will be dropped once I know more.

Duece is healthy and they are used at the same time:

DM - 230/920/6 - 20/120/0

RB - 80/480/6 - 40/400/1

If Duece isn't able to take the load.

DM - 50/200/1 - 0/0/0

RB - 300/1250/8 - 30/300/1

So you think they'll run more with Bush as the primary runner than if Duece and Bush are both healthy?

 

[Traders2001]

Can't believe that you guys think this is going to be a half/half break.

Deuce is the starting RB.

Bush is the 3DB + WR2.

Both will see significant time in double backfield formations.

This team will run a lot more than it has in the past. Teams with two solid RB threats tend to run the ball upwards of 500-550 times a season, around 30-33 attempts a game.

Being that NO is expected to suck, and I wouldn't give them more than 6 wins, with their slightly improved defense, we'd likely temper our expectations to around 460-475 (slightly up from their 3-year average).

Deuce McAllister

290/1150/13, 37/300/1 = 1450/14

Reggie Bush

95/550/3, 45/525/6 = 1075/9

I'll be drinking that down it all season.

McAlister cant put up numbers like that when fully healthy , why would he do it coming back from a injury and sharing time with Bush.

 

[JimmyD]

A few things worry me about this whole situation.

1.  DM injury was pretty bad.  I don't see how he can come back and be effective this year.

2.  Bush is a rookie and it will be hard for his production to outperform his draft slot.

3.  I think having Bush and Duece on the field is not a good idea.  Using Bush in motion and lining him up in different locations is good, but if they use these two for a good portion of the game, I don't think Bush will be running the ball as much.  I think he'd be best served with an extra blocker that he can use to set up his explosive cut backs having Duece looses that extra blocker.

So here are my two projections, one set will be dropped once I know more.

Duece is healthy and they are used at the same time:

DM - 230/920/6 - 20/120/0

RB  - 80/480/6 - 40/400/1

If Duece isn't able to take the load.

DM - 50/200/1 - 0/0/0

RB  - 300/1250/8 - 30/300/1

So you think they'll run more with Bush as the primary runner than if Duece and Bush are both healthy?

Yes, I think so. See a previous post I had responding to the same question.I don't think its that far fetched.

edit to add part of the previous post:

3. Yes, I think that with Duece and Bush on the field the Saints will be able to throw more screen passes and utilize him in motion, allowing them to throw a little more, again hoping to keep Duece fresh all season. Also if Duece is injured this two back set is lost, thus pulling Bush in as the featured tail back. The other reason why I think they will run more without Deuce is because of Bush. I think no matter what style they play they will try and get Bush the ball. So with Duece I see them throwing a little more trying to get Bush the ball. Without Duece Bush will be the tailback and the best way to get him the ball is to hand it to him.

 

[Frenchy Fuqua]

I wanted to re-visit the Bush projections now that he is in camp early.

I saw this morning that Dodds latest projection has Bush with 250 touches from scrimmage (200 rush/50 rec) but only 7 TD. That seems awfully light on TDs to me. I understand that Bush isn't the Saints goal-line RB but even so this would be 1 TD every 35.7 touches. To me if Reggie Bush gets 250+ touches you are looking at 10+ TDs, especially on the turf in NO. Bush had a similar role at USC and scored once every 13.8 touches from the LOS (37 TD in 508 touches).

The big question in my mind is how often will he be on the field and can his body hold up to the wear and tear. Also, will he be split out at WR often when Deuce is in the game?

If you believe that he will get 250+ touches and stay healthy his total yards and TDs will take care of themselves.

 

[diesel7982]

No time to post the rationalization, but Ill throw out my numbersBush:180 carries, 875 yards, 6 TDs65 receptions, 725 yards, 5 TDsDeuce:190 carries, 750 yards, 5 TDs25 receptions, 150 yards, 1 TDs

Wanted to update these projections, which were already likely in the top 10 for Bush a month ago.200 carries, 1025 yards, 7 TDs65 receptions, 725 yards, 6 Tds1750 yards, 13 TDs. Id consider him as high as #5 this year.

 

[BigRed]

I have to admit as time goes on I'm feeling more and more than Bush's likely carries are very much on the upswing while Mc's are down. The RBBC possibilities still have me wary of either though.

 

[pghrob]

bump

 

[bigliebdogg]

bump

 

[jurb26]

Bush:

195 carries, 1010 yds, 6 TDs, 60 rec, 500 yds, 4 TDs

McAllister:

175 carries, 720 yds, 7 TDs, 20 rec, 170 yds

 

[MLBrandow]

Can't believe that you guys think this is going to be a half/half break.

Deuce is the starting RB.

Bush is the 3DB + WR2.

Both will see significant time in double backfield formations.

This team will run a lot more than it has in the past. Teams with two solid RB threats tend to run the ball upwards of 500-550 times a season, around 30-33 attempts a game.

Being that NO is expected to suck, and I wouldn't give them more than 6 wins, with their slightly improved defense, we'd likely temper our expectations to around 460-475 (slightly up from their 3-year average).

Deuce McAllister

290/1150/13, 37/300/1 = 1450/14

Reggie Bush

95/550/3, 45/525/6 = 1075/9

I'll be drinking that down it all season.

McAlister cant put up numbers like that when fully healthy , why would he do it coming back from a injury and sharing time with Bush.

 

[MelvinTScupper]

Bush:195 carries, 1010 yds, 6 TDs, 60 rec, 500 yds, 4 TDsMcAllister:175 carries, 720 yds, 7 TDs, 20 rec, 170 yds

right on pace

 

[Gr00vus]

Bush:195 carries, 1010 yds, 6 TDs, 60 rec, 500 yds, 4 TDsMcAllister:175 carries, 720 yds, 7 TDs, 20 rec, 170 yds

right on pace

Judging by your previous posts in this thread that was right?I'm just looking at Reggie Bush here, but unless my math is way off he's nowhere near those projections. Extrapolating (I know, but what can you do?) what he has so far he'd end up with:588/0 rushing 748/0 receiving 228/0 returningI figure he'll score a TD or two along the way here, he's doing better receiving than I expected, but he's actually close to what I thought he'd have:600 yds rushing, 4 tds, 400 receiving, 2 tds, 350 yds kr, 1 td

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

Deuce McAllister

280 carries 1050 yards 7 TDs

15 receptions 100 yards 0 TDs

Reggie Bush

170 carries 825 yards 4 TDs

50 receptions 425 yards 3 TDs

Actual

Deuce McAllister

244 carries 1057 yards 10 TDs

30 receptions 198 yards 0 TDs

Reggie Bush

155 carries 565 yards 6 TDs

88 receptions 742 yards 2 TDs

This was one of my better projections. I didn't expect Bush to be as involved in the passing game, but his totals were very close to my prediction. McAllister also lived up to my expectations and the threat of Bush and the passing game allowed him plenty of running room. He could improve next year as he will be a year further removed from his injury.

One of two things could happen in New Orleans: Deuce McAllister could get stronger as the year goes on as he tries to recover from his ACL injury, or he could start to lose carries to Reggie Bush if he shows that he is not fully effective. McAllister has looked slow and less explosive in recent years, even when healthy, and I expect the lingering effects from his injury to keep his yards per carry below 4.

I expect the pair to begin the season with similar roles to those that Bush and LenDale White had at USC last year. McAllister will likely be given White's role and will be used to wear down the defense and carry in short yardage and goal line situations. The Saints will want to get Bush on the field as he can make things happen. If the balance is right, they can stop McAllister from wearing down while Bush can provide a different kind of threat. I think we will see Bush used in the return game and on third down, as well as when McAllister needs a breather.

The Saints have not been very good for a while now, and so I don't expect their offense to suddenly click and start scoring TDs at will, but Bush will undoubtedly give them a lift. The prospect of playing at home after last year's tragedy in New Orleans should also lift the team.

Prediction

Deuce McAllister

280 carries 1050 yards 7 TDs

15 receptions 100 yards 0 TDs

Reggie Bush

170 carries 825 yards 4 TDs

50 receptions 425 yards 3 TDs