Player Spotlight: Rex Grossman (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2007 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Rex Grossman, QB, Chicago Bears

Player Page Link: Rex Grossman Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Ministry of Pain]

He's a guy you can get late and he has upside. They have added a very fast TE in Greg Olsen to open up the field. Word is Devin hester is going to be playing WR, that's another speedy WR to go with Bernard berrian. Grossman likely will have a couple more 3 INT and 150 yd days but he also is likely to post 250 yds and 2-3 TD a few times during the season too. Also Cedric benson may have a rough go of it and they may need to pass to take some pressure off their running game.

3,400 yds

20 TD

18 INT

 

[KellysHeroes]

http://forums.footballguys.com/forum/index...howtopic=316726

His #s will improve this yr

 

[Nookular Power]

If he stays healthy, he improves his consistency on a week to week basis. He's got a weak schedule again, so should have as many opportunities to post the big games he had last year. With maturity, I'm guessing the bad games aren't quite as bad. A couple extra TDs, a bunch fewer INTs, and a few more yards:

3500 yds

26 TDs

13 INTs

 

[KellysHeroes]

3500 yds26 TDs13 INTs

Not bad.. thats a lot of yds thoughRex is more of a game mangerI would say 3200 yds22 TDs13 INTs5 Fum Lost

 

[shadyridr]

Let somebody else take him. IMO hes not a starting NFL QB.

3200 yds, 18 tds, 21 ints

 

[Blitzkrieg88]

He will have 1-2 good games, and the rest will be typical Rex.

2800 yards

19 TDs

24 INTs

 

[msommer]

Rex's 2006 numbers:

480 attempts, 262 completions (54.6%) 6.65 ypa, 23 TDs, 20 INT.

The bad news:

Moose is not getting any younger and Thomas Jones is gone. Lance briggs might hold out or be traded. Tank Johnson will be suspended for part of the season.

The good news:

Hester might be used as a deep threat in some terms, they added a pass catching TE (Olsen), Grossman is working on his fundamentals to stop him throwing off his back foot.

The Jury's still out news: Adam Archuleta is on the team and Lovie loves Adam. Grossman has started about 30 games (counting playoffs) and is entering his second straight healthy season.

Just because Grossman is training fundamentals in the off season does not mean that he will come back a better passer - but it has to be positive that he is trying to improve.

In terms of FF the good and bad news come together something like:

Having lost Thomas Jones the onus is on Cedric Benson to make opposing teams fear the run - otherwise they will stack the box and force Rex to pass more. The Defense might be without two of their key players for part of the season and might be vulnerable against the run - leaving less time for the Chicago offense on the field and forcing Rex to pass more.

When passing: Two speedsters might line up in three WR sets, with Moose going over the middle maybe - in two TE sets there are two capable pass catchers creating mismatches for the opposing LB corps.

Someone mentioned that Grossman comes very cheap - I landed him for about a fourth of what most QB2s go for in a 16 team auction league - that's how low he is regarded. Yet last year in that league he was QB 14.

Granted he had some serious clunkers, week 6, 12, 13 and 17 - and one bad week (9).

Suppose he clears up a few of his INTs - 16 of 20 in his five bad games - he becomes a decent starter in a 12 team league and certainly a quality QB2.

I believe he will have to improve on his accuracy this year in order to remain the starter in Chicago. That is why I believe in the fluff piece. I believe he will have to throw more on 3rd down and more on 2nd as well as I am not a huge believer in Cedric Benson (although I believe he will be servicable). IOverall I do not believe his attempts will go up as I believe Grossmans efficiency will improve because of the added weapons, the threat of Hester and Olsen.

My projection:

480 att, 284 completions for 3400 yards, 24 TDs 16 Ints

This puts him in QB9-10 territory.

I believe his ceiling is probably QB 7-8, his floor QB14-15.

 

[mozzy84]

I'll pass-

2900 yards

17 td

21 int

 

[Nookular Power]

He will have 1-2 good games, and the rest will be typical Rex.2800 yards19 TDs24 INTs

What is "typical Rex" anyway? The guy had 7 games with a rating over 100, 5 games with a rating under 40. There's no "typical" anywhere -- he was either awesome or terrible. I take it you believe the 5 bad games were "typical" while the 7 good ones were...what...flukes? I'm no statistician, but I'm inclined to call what happens more often "typical".

 

[greenroom]

Well I think the Bears will be tossing the rock more this season.

So yes Grossman will have a couple of bad games but he will have some great games.

3450 yards

29 TDS

15 INTs

75 Rush Yards,

2 Rush TDs

Heck he put up 23 last year so 6 more TD's is really not a lot IMO

 

[kevinray]

He will have 1-2 good games, and the rest will be typical Rex.2800 yards19 TDs24 INTs

What is "typical Rex" anyway? The guy had 7 games with a rating over 100, 5 games with a rating under 40. There's no "typical" anywhere -- he was either awesome or terrible. I take it you believe the 5 bad games were "typical" while the 7 good ones were...what...flukes? I'm no statistician, but I'm inclined to call what happens more often "typical".

There used to be a video on You tube of all of Rex's passes thrown through the first three games that he tore up, and when watched you saw a lot of the Rex from bad games later in the year. He was forcing the ball all year and it was always only a matter of time till he started not squeezing the ball in or had the CB's hold on the int. He's a gun slinger, a poor mans Farve who will need to drastically change his approach to the game if he ever wants to lower the int total. I still think he’s a great late draft pick in dynasty as he’s a fine emergency guy who’s shown some support from management and the ability to put big games, but he needs to stop forcing the ball and have a good year if he’s going to be a bear next year.

 

[-X-]

New QB coach Pep Hamilton is frantically working with Grossman to get him to step up in the pocket against a strong rush, which should hopefully result in fewer throws off his back foot and hence, fewer INTs. 3400/25/15+150/2 would be my speculation.

Looking at last year's FF point production, he had 7 awesome games (30+ points), 3 good games (21-29), 1 avg. game (17) and 5 horrible games (one of those being week 17), so he's definitely a solid backup and potentially a starter if his pocket step-up and ball security preparation pays off with increased consistency and fewer turnovers.

I traded for him just before the draft as a backup (along with Jason Campbell) to Brees, also acquired just before the draft, so I do have a vested interest.

 

[mlball77]

3500 yds26 TDs13 INTs

Not bad.. thats a lot of yds thoughRex is more of a game mangerI would say 3200 yds22 TDs13 INTs5 Fum Lost

I like your projections here pretty well... but I don't think you can call Rex a "game manager." That is one of the places where is game is sorely lacking, imho. He just hasn't figured that aspect out yet. Instead of managing the game and taking what is given him by the opposing defense, he instead attempts to go deep on about every 4th throw, even into double coverage at times. Some games that pays off, others it kills him. -- This is of course just what I have seen from him in the last 1+ years of watching him closely (as a Bears fan) and is merely my opinion.I hope Rex can improve from last year, but I still think he is going to be very much up and down from week to week. So he could greatly help a fantasy team one week and that totally let them down the next.

 

[Nookular Power]

New QB coach Pep Hamilton is frantically working with Grossman to get him to step up in the pocket against a strong rush, which should hopefully result in fewer throws off his back foot and hence, fewer INTs. 25/15 would be my speculation.Looking at last year's FF point production, he had 7 awesome games (30+ points), 3 good games (21-29), 1 avg. game (17) and 5 horrible games (one of those being week 17), so he's definitely a solid backup and potentially a starter if his pocket step-up and ball security preparation pays off with increased consistency and fewer turnovers.I traded for him just before the draft as a backup (along with Jason Campbell) to Brees, also acquired just before the draft, so I do have a vested interest.

3500 yds26 TDs13 INTs

Not bad.. thats a lot of yds thoughRex is more of a game mangerI would say 3200 yds22 TDs13 INTs5 Fum Lost

I like your projections here pretty well... but I don't think you can call Rex a "game manager." That is one of the places where is game is sorely lacking, imho. He just hasn't figured that aspect out yet. Instead of managing the game and taking what is given him by the opposing defense, he instead attempts to go deep on about every 4th throw, even into double coverage at times. Some games that pays off, others it kills him. -- This is of course just what I have seen from him in the last 1+ years of watching him closely (as a Bears fan) and is merely my opinion.I hope Rex can improve from last year, but I still think he is going to be very much up and down from week to week. So he could greatly help a fantasy team one week and that totally let them down the next.

Both sNice break-down on the inconsistency issue with Rex, -X-. My hope -- as a Bears fan, as a Rex owner -- is that he matures and improves. You can expect inconsistency out of young guys (though Rex was as extreme in this regard as I've ever seen).And mball77 -- you're right on, Rex is no game manager. Orton was a game manager. The reason the Bears staff likes Rex so much is that they see him as so much more than a game manager -- he's a guy they think can WIN them games, not just "not lose" them. The fact is, he did win them some games last year...he also lost (or nearly lost) them some games. Again, I hope he matures and improves, making my projections or KellysHeroes projections reasonable (at least on the INTs).As a Bears fan, I was excited to see Ron Turner come back. Here's what Erik Kramer (Erik Freakin' Kramer!) did with Ron Turner as his OC in 1995:315 for 522, 60.3%, 3838 yds, 29 TD, 10 INTPersonally, I think Grossman is more physically talented, and has more talented receivers than Kramer. If he gets his head on right (perhaps a big if) I think Turner can do similar things with him.

 

[mbuehner]

New QB coach Pep Hamilton is frantically working with Grossman to get him to step up in the pocket against a strong rush, which should hopefully result in fewer throws off his back foot and hence, fewer INTs. 25/15 would be my speculation.

Theyve been frantically trying to stop him from doing that since he's joined the league. Certain things become engrained in a players muscle memory and its very difficult if not impossible to turn around- its much worse when all your success in high school and college reinforced it. Whats being asked of Grossman is that every instinct that has made him a winner his whole life be ignored and he do something else- and always at the most stressful moments in a game. Some guys can do that- Rex Grossman can't, in my opinion. Too much pride, too much success to soon, and being coddled by this franchise sure hasnt helped. Defenses have had time to study Rex now- confuse him with coverages and get hands in his face and he will toss you up a present. Grossman actually gets worse this season as he is called upon to do more when the Bears defense and STs cant give him a short field every series:525 att, 275 comp, 3300y, 17td, 25ints

 

[BassNBrew]

Well I think the Bears will be tossing the rock more this season.So yes Grossman will have a couple of bad games but he will have some great games. 3450 yards29 TDS15 INTs75 Rush Yards,2 Rush TDsHeck he put up 23 last year so 6 more TD's is really not a lot IMO

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.Rex in 071650 yards8 TDs9 INTs24 rush yards0 TDsInjured or benched for Griese.

 

[benbadman]

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.Rex in 071650 yards8 TDs9 INTs24 rush yards0 TDsInjured or benched for Griese.

Finally someone I agree with in this thread! Rex Grossman = Cade McNown 2.0, a 1st round QB the Bears threw to the wolves, and the wolves ate him up. In 2006, Rex had 7 games with 2+ turnovers, including five games with 3+ INTs. If you are in a league like mine, where INTs and fumbles lost are -2 points each, this guy was killing you last year if you were trying to play him on the matchups. Every other game he was giving up the ball like early Culpepper.I'll never forget all the posts by people who lost their 2006 wk6 game when Grossman ponied up six turnovers, and even added -7 rushing yards for good measure. People with double-digit leads lost that week because they left Grossman in their lineup to maybe try and get high-score of the week, etc etc.If I was the Bears coach, I bench Rex in the Super Bowl after those bonehead plays in the 3rd quarter. Heck, after the Pats & Vikings games Griese would have been my starter.Grossman in 2007, should be the kind of last round pick, a QB3, that you take instead of a 2nd kicker or defense. Only with Grossman you might end up cutting him when your K/D is on bye in October. Heck, Drew Brees was that kind of player last year and he blew up, so there's maybe a 30% chance Grossman actually puts up 20+ TD like people are saying.*thinking cap on*Grossman starts the first 7 games, but after the Bears go 3-4, in part due to Grossman's reckless passing, the Bears get QB2 in there to warm up on the Lions before the bye week (like the Cowboys should have done w/ Romo in the Texans game in '06).1050 yards5TD 9INT 3 fumbles lost(That's two decent games with 2TD 250yd and 0INT, then a bunch of stinkers until he's benched during/after the Eagles game)

 

[-X-]

New QB coach Pep Hamilton is frantically working with Grossman to get him to step up in the pocket against a strong rush, which should hopefully result in fewer throws off his back foot and hence, fewer INTs. 25/15 would be my speculation.

Theyve been frantically trying to stop him from doing that since he's joined the league.

I have never read or heard anything to that effect, and I've been ardently following the Bears since Payton was a pup.

Shotgun part of plan to aid Grossman's development

Repetition, repetition, repetition

Grossman's work beginning to pay dividends

We shall see what happens.

 

[greenroom]

Well I think the Bears will be tossing the rock more this season.So yes Grossman will have a couple of bad games but he will have some great games. 3450 yards29 TDS15 INTs75 Rush Yards,2 Rush TDsHeck he put up 23 last year so 6 more TD's is really not a lot IMO

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.Rex in 071650 yards8 TDs9 INTs24 rush yards0 TDsInjured or benched for Griese.

I know that Grossman is the Barry Bonds on this board for football. Everyone is just against this kid. Yes this kid had some growing pains last year. Is he a Manning type of QB no, but he did lead his team to the Super Bowl and gets zero credit for it. He did toss 23 TD's last year but you would think from people on this board that he tossed 23 INTS. Its funny people want to focus on the crappy games he had last year but when it is about the great games he had it is all dismissed that it was because of what ever excuse you want to provide. Didn't last year we went thru the he is going to get benched for Griese all season? And did he? With a year of experience under him no way does he get benched for Griese this year. And if the Bears do go to Griese can you say hello to a top 5 draft pick and no playoffs.There is a reason that Griese has never been the man or been able to stay with a team. Bottom line I stand by my thinking of how Grossman will do this year. And the main reason is its a contract year for Grossman.

 

[mbuehner]

New QB coach Pep Hamilton is frantically working with Grossman to get him to step up in the pocket against a strong rush, which should hopefully result in fewer throws off his back foot and hence, fewer INTs. 25/15 would be my speculation.

Theyve been frantically trying to stop him from doing that since he's joined the league.

I have never read or heard anything to that effect, and I've been ardently following the Bears since Payton was a pup.

Shotgun part of plan to aid Grossman's development

Repetition, repetition, repetition

Grossman's work beginning to pay dividends

We shall see what happens.

One thing to notice with Grossman on Sunday is his footwork. Wilson and offensive coordinator Ron Turner have been working with him on stepping up in the pocket to try to buy some time with Colts fast DEs Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis rushing from the outside. If Grossman falls back into his old bad habits and starts throwing off his back foot or fading backward as he throws, it could be a long day for him and the Bears' offense. If he steps up and buys time effectively, the Bears' passing game could flourish.

"We’re constantly trying to get him to step up in the pocket," Wilson said. "He has a tendency if it’s not there to float or bounce back a little bit. We want him moving up, especially this week with their rush ends

Feb 3, 2007

According to Turner, Grossman spends a lot of time working on fundamentals. During the 15 minutes of special-teams practice that the Bears have every day, quarterbacks coach Wade Wilson drills Grossman on fundamentals, working on his drops and his throwing mechanics.

"And we're watching that very closely in practice," Turner said. "It's something that we continue to work on, and overall he's doing a pretty good job of it. If he falls back once in a while, we've got to stay on it."

Nov 9, 2006

“I think this is a great lesson for me to get back to basics and do what got me to have some success and stop throwing off my back foot, step into my throws, read the coverage right, get to the right play, check out of this play, check out of that play, and just play smart football.”

week 7

Three days before the game, offensive coordinator Terry Shea had this to say about what he expected from Grossman in the opener.

"His job is to get the ball in the hands of the playmakers -- that's all we ask of Rex," Shea said. "We don't ask him to scramble around and make plays off his back foot --the Brett Favre type of play -- we're not asking him to do that."

sept 15, 2004Might want to put off that application for Da Superfans until further notice.

 

[BassNBrew]

Well I think the Bears will be tossing the rock more this season.

So yes Grossman will have a couple of bad games but he will have some great games.

3450 yards

29 TDS

15 INTs

75 Rush Yards,

2 Rush TDs

Heck he put up 23 last year so 6 more TD's is really not a lot IMO

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.

Rex in 07

1650 yards

8 TDs

9 INTs

24 rush yards

0 TDs

Injured or benched for Griese.

I know that Grossman is the Barry Bonds on this board for football. Everyone is just against this kid. Yes this kid had some growing pains last year. Is he a Manning type of QB no, but he did lead his team to the Super Bowl and gets zero credit for it. He did toss 23 TD's last year but you would think from people on this board that he tossed 23 INTS. Its funny people want to focus on the crappy games he had last year but when it is about the great games he had it is all dismissed that it was because of what ever excuse you want to provide. Didn't last year we went thru the he is going to get benched for Griese all season? And did he? With a year of experience under him no way does he get benched for Griese this year. And if the Bears do go to Griese can you say hello to a top 5 draft pick and no playoffs.

There is a reason that Griese has never been the man or been able to stay with a team.

Bottom line I stand by my thinking of how Grossman will do this year. And the main reason is its a contract year for Grossman.

Last year only one QB had 29+ TDs.Two years ago only one QB had 29+ TDs.

Five did it in 04 and two in 03. I don't expect Grossman to lead the league in TDs or be in the top three.

 

[msommer]

Well I think the Bears will be tossing the rock more this season.

So yes Grossman will have a couple of bad games but he will have some great games.

3450 yards

29 TDS

15 INTs

75 Rush Yards,

2 Rush TDs

Heck he put up 23 last year so 6 more TD's is really not a lot IMO

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.

Rex in 07

1650 yards

8 TDs

9 INTs

24 rush yards

0 TDs

Injured or benched for Griese.

I know that Grossman is the Barry Bonds on this board for football. Everyone is just against this kid. Yes this kid had some growing pains last year. Is he a Manning type of QB no, but he did lead his team to the Super Bowl and gets zero credit for it. He did toss 23 TD's last year but you would think from people on this board that he tossed 23 INTS. Its funny people want to focus on the crappy games he had last year but when it is about the great games he had it is all dismissed that it was because of what ever excuse you want to provide. Didn't last year we went thru the he is going to get benched for Griese all season? And did he? With a year of experience under him no way does he get benched for Griese this year. And if the Bears do go to Griese can you say hello to a top 5 draft pick and no playoffs.

There is a reason that Griese has never been the man or been able to stay with a team.

Bottom line I stand by my thinking of how Grossman will do this year. And the main reason is its a contract year for Grossman.

Last year only one QB had 29+ TDs.Two years ago only one QB had 29+ TDs.

Five did it in 04 and two in 03. I don't expect Grossman to lead the league in TDs or be in the top three.

Please address your projection that he will be benched for Griese in further detailTIA

 

[TitusIII]

It will be the Cedric Benson show in Chicago this season, and the defense will have closed out many opponents by the third quarter. With that being said....

2800 yards

18 td's

13 int's

One tough decision for the Chicago front office....

 

[BassNBrew]

Well I think the Bears will be tossing the rock more this season.

So yes Grossman will have a couple of bad games but he will have some great games.

3450 yards

29 TDS

15 INTs

75 Rush Yards,

2 Rush TDs

Heck he put up 23 last year so 6 more TD's is really not a lot IMO

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.

Rex in 07

1650 yards

8 TDs

9 INTs

24 rush yards

0 TDs

Injured or benched for Griese.

I know that Grossman is the Barry Bonds on this board for football. Everyone is just against this kid. Yes this kid had some growing pains last year. Is he a Manning type of QB no, but he did lead his team to the Super Bowl and gets zero credit for it. He did toss 23 TD's last year but you would think from people on this board that he tossed 23 INTS. Its funny people want to focus on the crappy games he had last year but when it is about the great games he had it is all dismissed that it was because of what ever excuse you want to provide. Didn't last year we went thru the he is going to get benched for Griese all season? And did he? With a year of experience under him no way does he get benched for Griese this year. And if the Bears do go to Griese can you say hello to a top 5 draft pick and no playoffs.

There is a reason that Griese has never been the man or been able to stay with a team.

Bottom line I stand by my thinking of how Grossman will do this year. And the main reason is its a contract year for Grossman.

Last year only one QB had 29+ TDs.Two years ago only one QB had 29+ TDs.

Five did it in 04 and two in 03. I don't expect Grossman to lead the league in TDs or be in the top three.

Please address your projection that he will be benched for Griese in further detailTIA

a) The guy blew off a regular season game to prep for New Year's Eve activities.b) I think the Super Bowl performance is a clear indication of Rex's ceiling.

c) Injury history troubles me.

The Bear's could have won the Super Bowl with an average performance at QB. I don't see them letting the window of opportunity pass if the QB play isn't up to snuff.

 

[Jason Wood]

If he stays healthy, he improves his consistency on a week to week basis. He's got a weak schedule again, so should have as many opportunities to post the big games he had last year. With maturity, I'm guessing the bad games aren't quite as bad. A couple extra TDs, a bunch fewer INTs, and a few more yards:

3500 yds

26 TDs

13 INTs

Wow...I am REALLY surprised by some of the projections I'm seeing for Grossman. People keep talking about his inexperience, yet he saw playing time in four seasons already, with a 56% completion rate being his high water mark. I also wonder whether some of these projections factor league norms into the equation. Do you know how many QBs have thrown at least 3,500 yards and 26 TDs in less than 500 passing attempts?

7 in the last decade
15 in the last 20 years

 

[KING]

how many people had griese on their rosters last year over grossman at the start of the season. i thought griese was the better QB. plus, it didn't matter anyway, because grossman would be out for the year by week 3. grossman is the absolute worst type of QB for this team, and he proved it in the superbowl. all the bears needed was a QB that wouldn't lose games for them. sort of like dilfer for the ravens.

i don't see how things are going to be better this year for grossman. they lost their best RB, and adding hester to the offense isn't earthshattering. given the fact that grossman is both erratic, and injury prone, i wouldn't go anywhere near him on draft day.

400 225 2700 19 18

 

[mbuehner]

But lets not forget, Grossman is still basically a rookie.

 

[BassNBrew]

But lets not forget, Grossman is still basically a rookie.

Raining rocks and garbage in the direction of the guy behind the couch.

 

[Jason Wood]

But lets not forget, Grossman is still basically a rookie.

By that logic so are Todd Bouman and Jim Sorgi...SLEEPER ALERT!

 

[GreenNGold]

0 yards

0 TD's

0 INT's

 

[Jason Wood]

0 yards0 TD's 0 INT's

While I would really love to factor those projections into the message board consensus, I'm afraid I'm going to have to exclude the

 

[msommer]

If he stays healthy, he improves his consistency on a week to week basis. He's got a weak schedule again, so should have as many opportunities to post the big games he had last year. With maturity, I'm guessing the bad games aren't quite as bad. A couple extra TDs, a bunch fewer INTs, and a few more yards:

3500 yds

26 TDs

13 INTs

Wow...I am REALLY surprised by some of the projections I'm seeing for Grossman. People keep talking about his inexperience, yet he saw playing time in four seasons already, with a 56% completion rate being his high water mark. I also wonder whether some of these projections factor league norms into the equation. Do you know how many QBs have thrown at least 3,500 yards and 26 TDs in less than 500 passing attempts?

7 in the last decade
15 in the last 20 years

IMHO soem of the low numbers are equally surprising...

 

[msommer]

But lets not forget, Grossman is still basically a rookie.

By that logic so are Todd Bouman and Jim Sorgi...SLEEPER ALERT!

Did Sorgi actually play in a Superbowl?

 

[BassNBrew]

0 yards0 TD's 0 INT's

While I would really love to factor those projections into the message board consensus, I'm afraid I'm going to have to exclude the

1 yard pass1 TD2 INTs-1 yard rush0 TDBetter???

 

[flapgreen]

I don't even want to talk about it.

 

[PsychoMan]

IMO, projecting injury is kinda crazy. So unless, you're convinced that Griese will take over the starting position at some point during the season, (and remember how adament Lovie was that "Rex is our quarterback" all last season), I don't see why people are projecting him to play less than 16 games.

Throwing for 23 touchdowns last season was pretty impressive. This year, I expect him to get very near that mark, and would be very surprised to see him out of the 19-25 TDs range. Once again, the defense will provide more than enough opportunities for the offense to score, and several offensive weapons have been added. I also expect him to be more comfortable in the pocket now that he has a year of starting experience under his belt. I expect him to improve his fundamentals (at least a bit), since that seems to be his focus this offseason, and slightly improve his accuracy and decision making (it can't be much worse).

472 attempts

275 completions

3389 yards

23 touchdowns

17 interceptions

I think that this season is a huge crossroads in his career. He is nearing the end of his contract, and if he plays any worse than last season, I imagine the Bears will have a new starting QB in 2008. I expect him to step up and play a bit better.

 

[Kirby]

3200 pass yards

26 pass TD

14 int

120 rush yards

1 rush TD

 

[Nookular Power]

If he stays healthy, he improves his consistency on a week to week basis. He's got a weak schedule again, so should have as many opportunities to post the big games he had last year. With maturity, I'm guessing the bad games aren't quite as bad. A couple extra TDs, a bunch fewer INTs, and a few more yards:

3500 yds

26 TDs

13 INTs

Wow...I am REALLY surprised by some of the projections I'm seeing for Grossman. People keep talking about his inexperience, yet he saw playing time in four seasons already, with a 56% completion rate being his high water mark. I also wonder whether some of these projections factor league norms into the equation. Do you know how many QBs have thrown at least 3,500 yards and 26 TDs in less than 500 passing attempts?

7 in the last decade
15 in the last 20 years

Rex threw 480 times last year...my thoughts on how that goes over 500:1. Ron Turner wants to throw. I have no quotes to back me up, only experience from watching him as Bears OC back in the 90s, then at Illinois for 9 years or whatever it was. He's a QB/passing guy first, no matter what one thinks of the history of the Bears on offense.

2. Without T. Jones, they'll be hard pressed to run so much as they did last year. Benson may or may not be a stud (I have my doubts that he'll be anything more than Rudi...for better or worse), but I don't think they ride him (and either Peterson or Wolfe) to the extent they could ride the TJ/Benson combo from last year.

3. Especiallly early, they'll have to throw more -- they're likely losing Tank Johnson for the first 4 to 8 games. If anyone remembers last year, the Bears' D was substantially worse with him out with injury or suspension. We're not looking at the same early-season blow-outs and wins that we saw from them last year.

4. IF (and here's the big IF that ties it all together) Grossman shows some of the improvement I'm hoping for (and yeah, I'll admit my homerism here...though I don't think it's completely unfounded optimism), they keep riding him through the end of the year.

Fleshing out my earlier projections:

301/520 (58%) 3500 yds (6.73 yds/att) 26 TDs 13 INTs

 

[KellysHeroes]

The Bear's could have won the Super Bowl with an average performance at QB. I don't see them letting the window of opportunity pass if the QB play isn't up to snuff.

The Colts shut down the mighty Tom Brady... but an avg QB could of beat them and lead the Bears to a win that day; please explain

 

[KING]

The Bear's could have won the Super Bowl with an average performance at QB. I don't see them letting the window of opportunity pass if the QB play isn't up to snuff.

The Colts shut down the mighty Tom Brady... but an avg QB could of beat them and lead the Bears to a win that day; please explain

whats brady got to do with anything? did you watch the superbowl? you'd have to go back to probably neil o'donnell to find a performance that bad, and destructive to his team. the colts were doing everything they could to give the bears that superbowl, but grossman single handedly managed to do more.

 

[Warpig]

I think the key factor is what we heard last year...Grossman is a leader in the huddle.

Sure he did some ignorant things like the stunt he pulled leading to NYE. But I think the team was willing to give him a free pass due to some of the sick numbers he was putting up at the beginning of the year. Kind of a wash.

He's shown he has the ability to be productive...he's just gotta get his head on straight.

He has the support of his team and his coaches and that is all that really matters.

He's still young and raw and hopefully he'll improve on last years numbers with some solid coaching over the off season.

3245 yds

25 td's

16 int's

40 rush yards

 

[Sigmund Bloom]

I would not recommend counting on Grossman this year. He's going to be a free agent in 08, and if he starts single-handedly losing games again, I would think the Bears will decide to cut bait - no reason to worry about destroying his confidence if he's not going to be there the next season.

 

[mbuehner]

And don't underestimate the loss of Thomas Jones. Grossman was making unforgiveable mistakes on a ball control, run first, offense. If he has to take the team on his back...

 

[greenroom]

I would not recommend counting on Grossman this year. He's going to be a free agent in 08, and if he starts single-handedly losing games again, I would think the Bears will decide to cut bait - no reason to worry about destroying his confidence if he's not going to be there the next season.

And how many players in any sport always seems to put up big number in the year they become a Free Agent? That is why I think this is the year to have Grossman. I would be more concerned next year once he gets the fat contract.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

But lets not forget, Grossman is still basically a rookie.

By that logic so are Todd Bouman and Jim Sorgi...SLEEPER ALERT!

Didn't realize either of those two were 1st round draft picks.IMO Grossman also brings a swagger to the offense those two players don't. The players love him for what he has been through and his attitude.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

Can you point me to your supplier as he's obviously having a clearence sale.

Rex in 07

1650 yards

8 TDs

9 INTs

24 rush yards

0 TDs

Injured or benched for Griese.

Finally someone I agree with in this thread! Rex Grossman = Cade McNown 2.0, a 1st round QB the Bears threw to the wolves, and the wolves ate him up. In 2006, Rex had 7 games with 2+ turnovers, including five games with 3+ INTs. If you are in a league like mine, where INTs and fumbles lost are -2 points each, this guy was killing you last year if you were trying to play him on the matchups. Every other game he was giving up the ball like early Culpepper.

I'll never forget all the posts by people who lost their 2006 wk6 game when Grossman ponied up six turnovers, and even added -7 rushing yards for good measure. People with double-digit leads lost that week because they left Grossman in their lineup to maybe try and get high-score of the week, etc etc.

If I was the Bears coach, I bench Rex in the Super Bowl after those bonehead plays in the 3rd quarter. Heck, after the Pats & Vikings games Griese would have been my starter.

Grossman in 2007, should be the kind of last round pick, a QB3, that you take instead of a 2nd kicker or defense. Only with Grossman you might end up cutting him when your K/D is on bye in October. Heck, Drew Brees was that kind of player last year and he blew up, so there's maybe a 30% chance Grossman actually puts up 20+ TD like people are saying.

*thinking cap on*

Grossman starts the first 7 games, but after the Bears go 3-4, in part due to Grossman's reckless passing, the Bears get QB2 in there to warm up on the Lions before the bye week (like the Cowboys should have done w/ Romo in the Texans game in '06).

1050 yards

5TD

9INT

3 fumbles lost

(That's two decent games with 2TD 250yd and 0INT, then a bunch of stinkers until he's benched during/after the Eagles game)

I understand your pain. But do those bad games definetely mean he wont be good this year. The year after after he played in the Superbowl. Considering the way he has been regularly attacked in the media before, during and after the "Big Game".

This kid had everything to do with the start the Bears had last year that put them in position to secure home field advantage. In fact, I could have sworn he played well in some of those games....

I suggest you come back to the present. Some would say that minus a few games, Rex had a pretty outstanding season for a rookie. Looks eeriely similar to the statistics Peyton put up his first year, regardless.

If he can just reduce those games by 2 or 3 this year and replace them with the "good" Rex...........Lets just say I think you are underestimating him and whether his issues are correctable. Rex has won this franchise games, whether he had some clunkers his first year or not.

I also suggest you watch some film on Rex. When he throws properly he makes mostly great throws and good decisions. When he gets on his heels and throws unconventionally, he throws interceptions. It is correctable.

When he is good, he makes types of throws with accuracy a QB in Chicago has rarely made. In fact, he makes some throws I can't remember a QB in Chicago EVER making.

 

[greenroom]

What I don't understand is why everyone thinks Griese is the answer? If any team thought he was a starting QB they would of kept him.

Denver gave him the best chance and he is just not a leader. Grossman is a leader of the team. Does he make mistakes? Hell Yes. I remember a QB named Brett Farve that when he started out that he would have games that are the same as Rex had last year. But he grew up and matured as a QB. I am not saying that Rex will have the career that Farve has had. But both are leaders of their teams and that is something that Griese never has had and never will.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

If he stays healthy, he improves his consistency on a week to week basis. He's got a weak schedule again, so should have as many opportunities to post the big games he had last year. With maturity, I'm guessing the bad games aren't quite as bad. A couple extra TDs, a bunch fewer INTs, and a few more yards:

3500 yds

26 TDs

13 INTs

Wow...I am REALLY surprised by some of the projections I'm seeing for Grossman. People keep talking about his inexperience, yet he saw playing time in four seasons already, with a 56% completion rate being his high water mark. I also wonder whether some of these projections factor league norms into the equation. Do you know how many QBs have thrown at least 3,500 yards and 26 TDs in less than 500 passing attempts?

7 in the last decade
15 in the last 20 years

He was returning from injuries that should have ended his year in 2 of those seasons, one of those being a "lost" losing season. One season he got 3 games in and then got hurt.Im sorry, but if you think he won't mature after last year, with everything from the national criticism to the Super Bowl, well, lets just say I think you are wrong.

I don't think Rex will come close to 3500 yards just because the offense probably won't be called that way. Only chance would be massive injuries to the D.

But I do think he has a good chance to top 26 TDs. In fact, IMO 30 is very possible this year if he stays healthy.

ETA actually, I do believe he will throw for more than 3500 yards and 26 TDs. He did last year. I think he will improve his stats this year (if healthy). I don't think you will see the 4 and 5 interception games or as many fumbles. Rex also left alot on the table statistically last year being pulled in the 4th quarters of a few blow outs. I think there is still room for growth.

 

[Hairy Snowman]

OK. Now that I put some replies on paper......

I think I have stated my case for the most part regarding Rexs individual development. There is more, but I think I will wait to see how the summer progresses with Rex.

Now I will expand it to the fact that theoretically the offense should be better this year. The recieving corps is improved. The O Line is improved. Ds will likely gameplan to the middle with Bensen in the backfield. IMO it should open up the outsides........

........where you will find Hester, Bradley, and Berrian - maybe the fastest WR corps in the NFL. Add in Moose and Olsen on shorter routes and, to me, with Rexs arm, it looks dangerous.

By the way, I think Olsen may turn out to be the best catching TE the Bears have had in a long time. He has speed too ....

IMO the entire Bears team collectively is the fastest of any Bears team in history.

They may not win as many games as last year, but Im telling you, don't underestimate them.