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Player Spotlight: Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins (1 Viewer)

Jason Wood

Zoo York
2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question.

Thread Topic: Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Robert Griffin III Player Page

Each article will include:

  • Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
  • Links to thoughtful viewpoints from around the Web
  • FBG Projections
The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

  • Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
  • Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
  • Avoid redundancies or things like "good posting" ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

  • For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
  • For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  • For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
RG3 is awesome, but I just feel that he is gonna be a bit overvalued this year, as he basically has to do again this year what he did last year to justify what people will be paying for him, and I am not someone who believes in overpaying for 2nd year players who had awesome rookie seasons. See: Cam Newton last year. Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him. I am not gonna predict any specific numbers, as RG3 is the kind of guy who could put up a handful of absolutely monster games, resulting in great end-of-the-year numbers, but I am not sure the consistency will be there.

 

JustinHawkins

Footballguy
Monster year coming. My bigger concern is his receivers, but if Garçon and Fred Davis are on the field for 16 games he should be fine. If either goes down then it gets muddy

 

ImTheScientist

Footballguy
RG3 is awesome, but I just feel that he is gonna be a bit overvalued this year, as he basically has to do again this year what he did last year to justify what people will be paying for him, and I am not someone who believes in overpaying for 2nd year players who had awesome rookie seasons. See: Cam Newton last year. Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him. I am not gonna predict any specific numbers, as RG3 is the kind of guy who could put up a handful of absolutely monster games, resulting in great end-of-the-year numbers, but I am not sure the consistency will be there.
I would say so far according to ADP results that isn't the case.

 

We Tigers

Footballguy
He's undervalued now, but if you draft Labor Day weekend, he'll probably be right where he should be. A healthy RG3 finishes QB5 or better this year, though I do expect his turnovers to increase since he almost never lost the ball last season.

 

Warrior

Footballguy
RG3 is awesome, but I just feel that he is gonna be a bit overvalued this year, as he basically has to do again this year what he did last year to justify what people will be paying for him, and I am not someone who believes in overpaying for 2nd year players who had awesome rookie seasons. See: Cam Newton last year. Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him. I am not gonna predict any specific numbers, as RG3 is the kind of guy who could put up a handful of absolutely monster games, resulting in great end-of-the-year numbers, but I am not sure the consistency will be there.
This couldn't be more wrong. He's being drafted MUCH lower this year when compared to his per-game ranking last season. It's not even close.

 

Warrior

Footballguy
Monster year coming. My bigger concern is his receivers, but if Garçon and Fred Davis are on the field for 16 games he should be fine. If either goes down then it gets muddy
Baseless.

RGIII didn't have Garcon for most of the weeks where he put up big #'s last season and Fred Davis was almost a non-factor in that offense even when he was healthy.

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
RG3 is awesome, but I just feel that he is gonna be a bit overvalued this year, as he basically has to do again this year what he did last year to justify what people will be paying for him, and I am not someone who believes in overpaying for 2nd year players who had awesome rookie seasons. See: Cam Newton last year. Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him. I am not gonna predict any specific numbers, as RG3 is the kind of guy who could put up a handful of absolutely monster games, resulting in great end-of-the-year numbers, but I am not sure the consistency will be there.
This couldn't be more wrong. He's being drafted MUCH lower this year when compared to his per-game ranking last season. It's not even close.
The concern over his recovery is probably why, but I said what I said working off the assumption that he looks good in preseason and most figure he will be healthy and good to go for Week 1. But hey, I could be wrong, and if his price tag is not as high as I thought it would be, then I will happily change my position. :)

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs

 

ImTheScientist

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.
RGIII finished ranked #7, Wilson finished #11, and Kaepernick was in that range on a PPG basis. With that said I think that the zone read has created a situation where QBs need to be evaluated on more than how many pass attempts will they get.

The differece between the Packers and Seahawks was 150 pass attempts last year. That works out to 9 pass attempts less per game and assuming a ~65% completion percentage or around 5 or 6 more completions per game which is roughly 40 to 60 yards passing. That disadvantage is made up by rushing stats.

Based on your 550-600 attempts you prefer Flaco, Big Ben, Eagles QB, Luck, or Romo more? Thats according to last years number. If so, fair enough....I don't.

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.
RGIII finished ranked #7, Wilson finished #11, and Kaepernick was in that range on a PPG basis. With that said I think that the zone read has created a situation where QBs need to be evaluated on more than how many pass attempts will they get.

The differece between the Packers and Seahawks was 150 pass attempts last year. That works out to 9 pass attempts less per game and assuming a ~65% completion percentage or around 5 or 6 more completions per game which is roughly 40 to 60 yards passing. That disadvantage is made up by rushing stats.

Based on your 550-600 attempts you prefer Flaco, Big Ben, Eagles QB, Luck, or Romo more? Thats according to last years number. If so, fair enough....I don't.
Not sure why I'm explaining simple concepts to such a well known troll, but no, it's not that I like the guys going later more, but I like their price more and think their fantasy stats will be similar. It's called value. I like their value more.

The guys you listed are not the guys I'm targeting, but I think Big Ben will be decent value.

 

ImTheScientist

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.
RGIII finished ranked #7, Wilson finished #11, and Kaepernick was in that range on a PPG basis. With that said I think that the zone read has created a situation where QBs need to be evaluated on more than how many pass attempts will they get.

The differece between the Packers and Seahawks was 150 pass attempts last year. That works out to 9 pass attempts less per game and assuming a ~65% completion percentage or around 5 or 6 more completions per game which is roughly 40 to 60 yards passing. That disadvantage is made up by rushing stats.

Based on your 550-600 attempts you prefer Flaco, Big Ben, Eagles QB, Luck, or Romo more? Thats according to last years number. If so, fair enough....I don't.
Not sure why I'm explaining simple concepts to such a well known troll, but no, it's not that I like the guys going later more, but I like their price more and think their fantasy stats will be similar. It's called value. I like their value more.

The guys you listed are not the guys I'm targeting, but I think Big Ben will be decent value.
You must be counting on an uptick in passing attempts for a player not listed.

http://fantasyfootballcalculator.com/adp_ppr.php?year=2013&teams=12&pos=qb

According to FFC these are the next QBs drafted after RGIII, Kaepernick, and RW.

7.01 Colin Kaepernick7.06 Russell Wilson7.09 Robert Griffin7.12 Andrew Luck8.04 Tony Romo9.09 Eli Manning10.07 Michael Vick11.03 Ben Roethlisberger11.04 Andy Dalton11.10 Jay Cutler12.04 Joe Flacco12.10 Philip RiversOut of couriostiy who's fantasy statistics do you feel will be comparable? Obviously this is all opinion, Im just trying to dig a bit more into yours and the coments you had.

Personally I feel 7th round for any three of those players would be just about right as far as getting value and potential for more. Any of those listed players could finish in the top 10, I guess I just like the upside of the 7th round QBs a bit more.

 
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dgreen

Footballguy
Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him.
Depends on what you mean. Early last season, they ran several QB draws and even a QB sweep or two. I agree there could be less of that. But, I don't see a decrease in the read option unless opposing defenses start to control it. Kyle Shanahan has been clear that he thinks the read option increases, not decreases, protection for his QB. Griffin is probably safer with the read option than without it.

 

Sidewinder16

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those numbers come out to 300+ fantasy points in standard scoring (I'm calculating 308.8)? Is that not QB1 territory?

 

Ghost Rider

Footballguy
Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him.
Depends on what you mean. Early last season, they ran several QB draws and even a QB sweep or two. I agree there could be less of that. But, I don't see a decrease in the read option unless opposing defenses start to control it. Kyle Shanahan has been clear that he thinks the read option increases, not decreases, protection for his QB. Griffin is probably safer with the read option than without it.
Very possible. It is definitely most intriguing. I hope his knee is fine and he returns to the same level, as he is fun as hell to watch. :yes:

 

need2know

Footballguy
So where do we have rg3 going in Redraft? My qbs as follows:brees, rodgers, newton, ryan, peyton, rg3....so number 6. Too high for a guy coming off the knee injury? Cant deny his upside and ppg is crazy good. If you take another decent qb like cutler or big ben to help with the risk it seems like a good idea right?

 

FatmanLittleboy

Footballguy
I know a guy who won his draft league last year mainly because he took Brees in the 1st and ADP in the 2nd late. If Griffin fully recovers where he is being drafted I think he is going to win a lot of Fantasy team championships.

 

need2know

Footballguy
How confident are we that he plays week one? How confident are we he will still be as effective as last season?

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
Thing that concerns me about RG3, besides his slight frame compared to similar style running QB's like Cam is that he's coming off the knee surgery, and it's not his first one. Back in college he tore the other ACL in the other knee and they had to use some part of that repaired knee (graft?) to repair the knee he hurt last year. Throw out Adrian Peterson as out outlier, ACL's are hard to come back from, especially for a player that relies so much on his backpeddle, forward and sideways scrambling ability. I got no dog in this fight as I don't currently own RG3, but with a couple of drafts ahead of me, I won't shy away from taking him at his price tag. Just have to be sure to get a solid mediocre pocket passer like Carson Palmer or Joe Flacco in the later rounds to back him up. If he was cleared to play in preseason, I bet he would have turned in a few of his dazzling athletic plays and the hype would boost his draft stock. As it is, be happy you can still get him for a nice 2 to 3 round discount. But also know the risks.

 
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need2know

Footballguy
Thing that concerns me about RG3, besides his slight frame compared to similar style running QB's like Cam is that he's coming off the knee surgery, and it's not his first one. Back in college he tore the other ACL in the other knee and they had to use some part of that repaired knee (graft?) to repair the knee he hurt last year. Throw out Adrian Peterson as out outlier, ACL's are hard to come back from, especially for a player that relies so much on his backpeddle, forward and sideways scrambling ability. I got no dog in this fight as I don't currently own RG3, but with a couple of drafts ahead of me, I won't shy away from taking him at his price tag. Just have to be sure to get a solid mediocre pocket passer like Carson Palmer or Joe Flacco in the later rounds to back him up. If he was cleared to play in preseason, I bet he would have turned in a few of his dazzling athletic plays and the hype would boost his draft stock. As it is, be happy you can still get him for a nice 2 to 3 round discount. But also know the risks.
yeah if I grab him I may try to get another high upside guy like vick a few rounds later...

 

doowain

Footballguy
RG3 is awesome, but I just feel that he is gonna be a bit overvalued this year, as he basically has to do again this year what he did last year to justify what people will be paying for him, and I am not someone who believes in overpaying for 2nd year players who had awesome rookie seasons. See: Cam Newton last year. Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him. I am not gonna predict any specific numbers, as RG3 is the kind of guy who could put up a handful of absolutely monster games, resulting in great end-of-the-year numbers, but I am not sure the consistency will be there.
You do realize that Cam finished as a Top 5 QB last year right? If RG3 finishes similarly to how he did last year (assuming he plays all 16 this year), how would you be overpaying?

 

FF Ninja

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those numbers come out to 300+ fantasy points in standard scoring (I'm calculating 308.8)? Is that not QB1 territory?
Josh Freeman scored 308 points last year and finished QB13. Griffin is going in the 5th round whereas Freeman is going in the 12th. I'm not saying Griffin can't make it in the top 12, but I feel like his probable benefit over guys going 5-8 rounds later is maybe 1-2 ppg.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
RG3 will run less, but the beauty of RG3 is that he is a GREAT thrower too.

Do not let the "running less" worry you. Injury risk, sure.

He will still run, but do not expect 800 yards.

 
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silentcoach

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those numbers come out to 300+ fantasy points in standard scoring (I'm calculating 308.8)? Is that not QB1 territory?
Josh Freeman scored 308 points last year and finished QB13. Griffin is going in the 5th round whereas Freeman is going in the 12th. I'm not saying Griffin can't make it in the top 12, but I feel like his probable benefit over guys going 5-8 rounds later is maybe 1-2 ppg.
Comparing Griffin to Freeman is a lot of respect for Freeman (or lack of respect to Griffin).

I think most people who drop Griffin in their rankings think that he is not a good pocket passer (not you necessarily). Regardless, Freeman is a TERRIBLE passer.

55% competion last year.

To expect for Griffin to regress and for Freeman's overall stats to stay status quo, thus suggesting Freeman is better value, is stat picking to reach a conclusion.

 
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FF Ninja

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those numbers come out to 300+ fantasy points in standard scoring (I'm calculating 308.8)? Is that not QB1 territory?
Josh Freeman scored 308 points last year and finished QB13. Griffin is going in the 5th round whereas Freeman is going in the 12th. I'm not saying Griffin can't make it in the top 12, but I feel like his probable benefit over guys going 5-8 rounds later is maybe 1-2 ppg.
Comparing Griffin to Freeman is a lot of respect for Freeman (or lack of respect to Griffin).

I think most people who drop Griffin in their rankings think that he is not a good pocket passer (not you necessarily). Regardless, Freeman is a TERRIBLE passer.

55% competion last year.

To expect for Griffin to regress and for Freeman's overall stats to stay status quo, thus suggesting Freeman is better value, is stat picking to reach a conclusion.
Haha, I agree. The only reason I mentioned Freeman was because he was closest to 308.8 points last year. I'm drafting my QBs late, but Freeman won't be one of them.

 

Sweetness_34

Footballguy
Do not forget that Freeman had to throw a lot to stay in games since the Bucs had one of the worst pass D ever....being a 55% passer, Tampa will not want to throw late in games if they are ahead this year. Given their projected improvement on D (huge upgrades throughout the secondary), Bucs will not throw as much late in games to catch up/win. Expect more running in the 2nd half....which will impact Josh's #s

 

Dinsy Ejotuz

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those numbers come out to 300+ fantasy points in standard scoring (I'm calculating 308.8)? Is that not QB1 territory?
Josh Freeman scored 308 points last year and finished QB13. Griffin is going in the 5th round whereas Freeman is going in the 12th. I'm not saying Griffin can't make it in the top 12, but I feel like his probable benefit over guys going 5-8 rounds later is maybe 1-2 ppg.
Comparing Griffin to Freeman is a lot of respect for Freeman (or lack of respect to Griffin).

I think most people who drop Griffin in their rankings think that he is not a good pocket passer (not you necessarily). Regardless, Freeman is a TERRIBLE passer.

55% competion last year.

To expect for Griffin to regress and for Freeman's overall stats to stay status quo, thus suggesting Freeman is better value, is stat picking to reach a conclusion.
Well, now wait a minute.

Freeman was over 61% in both 2010 and 2011. What changed last year is that he threw the ball downfield more because the Bucs had no TEs and no 3rd WR and added one of the NFL's best deep threats. He was still 12th in the league in Y/A. So that 55% was a pretty straightforward risk/reward thing -- fewer completions for more yards.

Having said, I don't think I'd be looking for Freeman to be a value play vs Griffin. Love him as a QBBC guy or a high upside #2 though. I think he and Bradford are both going to take a step forward this year.

 
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Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
Do not forget that Freeman had to throw a lot to stay in games since the Bucs had one of the worst pass D ever....being a 55% passer, Tampa will not want to throw late in games if they are ahead this year. Given their projected improvement on D (huge upgrades throughout the secondary), Bucs will not throw as much late in games to catch up/win. Expect more running in the 2nd half....which will impact Josh's #s
Projected improvement on defense you say? Revis is still a big question mark, and they brought in an overpaid safety from SF and a rookie CB in the 2nd round. Their d-line is paper thin and their LB's are only average. Their defense is in line for improvement. But from abysmal to what? below average? Remember, they are in a division with Cam, Matty Ice, and Drew Breezy. They will continue to be in shootouts all year. Book it!

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
Wilson, Kaepernick, and Griffin are all being drafted as QB1s after their first seasons as starters. Yet their teams ranked 30th, 31st, and 32nd in passing attempts. So if you are drafting these guys you are either banking on their teams switching offensive philosophies or banking on them scoring points with their legs. I have a hard time being confident about either of those scenarios, so I'll be waiting on some much cheaper players that I believe have a very solid shot at 550-600 passing attempts.

Griffin's passing metrics were amazing last year - 66% completion, 8.1 ypa, 4:1 TD/INT ratio. He very well could be the next Aaron Rodgers, but I'm not betting on it. I am going to expect those numbers to regress a bit, but I think they'll still be good. Before I get blasted for his 7.6 ypa, keep in mind that Brady had 7.6 ypa last year. That kind of sophomore slump for Griffin is not much of a slump! However, I do think he and the coaches will try to decrease his exposure in the running game a bit, so I think 100 rushes is a very generous projection.

450 att x 7.6 ypa = 3420 yds 22 TD 11 INT, 100 carries x 6 ypc = 600 yds 4 TDs
Correct me if I'm wrong, but don't those numbers come out to 300+ fantasy points in standard scoring (I'm calculating 308.8)? Is that not QB1 territory?
Josh Freeman scored 308 points last year and finished QB13. Griffin is going in the 5th round whereas Freeman is going in the 12th. I'm not saying Griffin can't make it in the top 12, but I feel like his probable benefit over guys going 5-8 rounds later is maybe 1-2 ppg.
Comparing Griffin to Freeman is a lot of respect for Freeman (or lack of respect to Griffin).

I think most people who drop Griffin in their rankings think that he is not a good pocket passer (not you necessarily). Regardless, Freeman is a TERRIBLE passer.

55% competion last year.

To expect for Griffin to regress and for Freeman's overall stats to stay status quo, thus suggesting Freeman is better value, is stat picking to reach a conclusion.
Well, now wait a minute.

Freeman was over 61% in both 2010 and 2011. What changed last year is that he threw the ball downfield more because the Bucs had no TEs and no 3rd WR and added one of the NFL's best deep threats. He was still 12th in the league in Y/A. So that 55% was a pretty straightforward risk/reward thing -- fewer completions for more yards.

Having said, I don't think I'd be looking for Freeman to be a value play vs Griffin. Love him as a QBBC guy or a high upside #2 though. I think he and Bradford are both going to take a step forward this year.
Freeman is a career 58.8% passer and I think the drafting of Glennon shows that the headcoach does not have a whole lot of confidence in Freeman.

i LOVE your comment on Bradford. Underrated. Even though he has a career 58%. Things that make you go hmmmmm** ;) :P

I think I prefer Bradford because he is less prone to the interception.

Freeman = 3.3% int on pass attempts

Bradford = 2.3% int on pass attempts.

 
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Ghost Rider

Footballguy
RG3 is awesome, but I just feel that he is gonna be a bit overvalued this year, as he basically has to do again this year what he did last year to justify what people will be paying for him, and I am not someone who believes in overpaying for 2nd year players who had awesome rookie seasons. See: Cam Newton last year. Plus, with him coming off of that injury, I think they will be a little careful with him and not have as many designed runs called for him. I am not gonna predict any specific numbers, as RG3 is the kind of guy who could put up a handful of absolutely monster games, resulting in great end-of-the-year numbers, but I am not sure the consistency will be there.
You do realize that Cam finished as a Top 5 QB last year right? If RG3 finishes similarly to how he did last year (assuming he plays all 16 this year), how would you be overpaying?
You wouldn't be. And RG3's value has not been that high, probably because of the concern over his knee, so I was wrong about that. The advantage to guys like RG3, Cam and Kaepernick is that they can have mediocre passing games and still put up great fantasy weeks cause of their ability to rack up rushing yards and scores.

 

Raiderfan32904

Footballguy
The advantage to guys like RG3, Cam and Kaepernick is that they can have mediocre passing games and still put up great fantasy weeks cause of their ability to rack up rushing yards and scores.
I'm sure some people are worried if the great fantasy weeks will still be there if the gameplan calls for him to be a pocket passer to protect his knee better. With the weapons he has, if his rushing attempts are on a snap count, those great fantasy scoring weeks could be a mirage. We'd have a better feel for RG3's game if we could only see him in a preseason game. But till then, we are stuck speculating. His value rests on blind faith.

 

silentcoach

Footballguy
The advantage to guys like RG3, Cam and Kaepernick is that they can have mediocre passing games and still put up great fantasy weeks cause of their ability to rack up rushing yards and scores.
I'm sure some people are worried if the great fantasy weeks will still be there if the gameplan calls for him to be a pocket passer to protect his knee better. With the weapons he has, if his rushing attempts are on a snap count, those great fantasy scoring weeks could be a mirage. We'd have a better feel for RG3's game if we could only see him in a preseason game. But till then, we are stuck speculating. His value rests on blind faith.
He is still a great passer though, imo. I do not think he rushes for 800 yards again (more like 600 or less), but his passing attempts should increase, and passing TDS increase as well.

At ADP QB 10 you do not need blind faith. I think QB10 is his floor if he is healthy all season.

 
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msommer

Footballguy
The advantage to guys like RG3, Cam and Kaepernick is that they can have mediocre passing games and still put up great fantasy weeks cause of their ability to rack up rushing yards and scores.
I'm sure some people are worried if the great fantasy weeks will still be there if the gameplan calls for him to be a pocket passer to protect his knee better. With the weapons he has, if his rushing attempts are on a snap count, those great fantasy scoring weeks could be a mirage. We'd have a better feel for RG3's game if we could only see him in a preseason game. But till then, we are stuck speculating. His value rests on blind faith.
Bought him last year, holding on to him so have no truck in the his adp is too high etc complaint.

I expect rust the first weeks. Timing being a bit off. Snap count on the rushes. Making sure he signals when he no longer has the ball in the read option.

I have gone out and gotten a reasonably safe QB2 to tide me over.

I understand that many will be unwilling to pay that price and lose out on value elsewhere. I get that.

But, hot damn, is he fun to watch or what? I want to be a part of that.

Now, as for expectations this year I think we'll see less rushing yards and more passing yards, and I think he'll end up around last years output, maybe drop to QB7 (full season projection) or so in most scoring systems. But I don't see a bust, nor do I believe his value is blind faith. We can reasonably assume Shanahan is not turning him into Drew Bledsoe so RGIII will get his - at the very latest after the bye

 
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Adam Harstad

Moderator
How confident are we that he plays week one? How confident are we he will still be as effective as last season?
Very confident he plays week 1. I think there's a good chance his play falls off from his 2012 levels, but it's worth pointing out that his 2012 levels were INSANE. In games Pierre Garcon played, Griffin averaged 9.4 yards per attempt and a QB rating of 116. Get him a legit receiver (such as Garcon), and he can eviscerate teams purely with his arm.

 

MattFancy

Footballguy
I just took RG3 in the 6th round of my draft last week. He was the 9th QB off the board.

QBs that went ahead of him: Brees, Rodgers, Manning, Newton, Kaepernick, Ryan, Brady, Stafford.

 

Gustavo Fring

Footballguy
I just got RGIII in an auction last night for $21. In comparison, the other top QB's went as follows: Rodgers ($69), Brees ($53), Newton ($53), Brady ($47), Kaepernick ($45), and Manning ($52)....Luck as went for $30.

If he is healthy all year, he will way outperform his draft day price for this specific draft.

 

tsarc888

Footballguy
ESPN's Ron Jaworski expressed concern about Robert Griffin III's passing mechanics after watching RG3 warm up ahead of last Monday's preseason game.
Jaws is the premier QB evaluator in the media. "I was watching him throw the football — there were a few clips — and I was concerned in the weight transfer," said Jaworski. "I didn’t see the clean mechanics I’ve seen in the past. I’m not there every day, I’m not a doctor, but he just looks a little different right now. It’s pregame, it was warmup, people can discount that. I’m just saying from my eye, I didn’t see the clean drops, the weight transfer, stay on that back foot, snap the hips." Jaworski "really (doesn't) know what to expect" from Griffin in 2013.
 

Ilov80s

Footballguy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/robert-griffin-iii-will-be-cleared-to-start-in-week-1-several-redskins-believe/2013/08/27/75dc0100-0f54-11e3-a2b3-5e107edf9897_story.html

several people who have been involved in Redskins’ practices said Griffin has taken practically all of the snaps with the starting offense last week and this week and he has closely resembled the dynamic player who was named the NFL’s offensive rookie of the year last season....he senses that the pending exam of Griffin’s knee by Andrews is being regarded by many at Redskins Park as merely a formality.
http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2013/08/27/rg3-im-100-percent-but-you-cant-put-a-number-on-it/

RG3 said he believes he is 100% and if he was at the combine right now, he could post a 4.3 40.

 

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