Player Spotlight: Rod Smith (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Rod Smith, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Rod Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[Joe T]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Rod Smith, WR, Denver Broncos

Player Page Link: Rod Smith Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

A huge value on draft day. Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver. He is consistently in the top 20. I think Walker will actually draw coverage away from Rod Smith. I expect Smith to outperform his ADP by a good margin this year.

 

[msommer]

83/1118/6

The old man still has it - although he will benefit if they a) open it up like 2004 b) get a kick### WR3

 

[mlball77]

I think this may finally be the year that Rod is supplanted as the top receiving threat in Denver. The guy has been great over the years and I often project consistent players like Rod to keep it up even as their age creeps up. However, with Javon Walker in town, I think Smith may be targeted noticeably less. I expect Smith to have a good year, but not as good as what we've come to expect.

Recs: 68

Rec Yds: 900

Rec TDs: 6

 

[Tau837]

Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver.

No he isn't. There are other threads that have addressed this in detail. Carry on.

 

[Musesboy]

Why doesn't Rod Smith get much respect? He has led the Broncos for nine straight seasons, including the last three with Jake Plummer under center. He has only failed to post 1000 yards once during that span, and has exceeded 1100 yards for the last two seasons. He has only missed three games in the last nine years.

Smith's low ranking comes down to two things: Javon Walker was signed, and Smith is now 36 years old. It seems that most people think that Walker will automatically be the main receiver for the Broncos this year. Walker is a big target at 6' 3" and he has posted one great season where he caught 89 passes for 1382 yards and 12 TDs. That was back in 2004 and remains Walker's only 1000 yard season. He was injured in the opening game last year and is battling back from a torn ACL.

Receivers that change teams do not often perform at their previous level; at least not immediately. The ones that do tend to have a lot of experience. Add in the injury concerns and the fact that Smith is a proven number one and clearly trusted by Plummer, and I think it may be a bit soon to declare Walker the main target in Denver.

Smith may be 36, but he had 15 gains of 20 or more yards last year. That's the same as Torry Holt and one behind Chad Johnson. He has only ever exceeded that figure once. He still managed to average 13 yards per reception and had one gain of 72 yards.

I think that Smith is still an effective receiver and that he has enough speed that when combined with Plummer's trust, it will be enough for him to retain the main receiving role in Denver this year. Walker is a bigger target, but Smith's value is not reliant on his TD production in any case. He averages around six per season.

Prediction

80 receptions 1050 yards 6 TDs

 

[rzrback77]

Rod Smith just turned 36 years old, not the end of the line, but he can see that line coming. In eight of the past nine years, he has produced over 1,000 receiving yards, with at least 70 catches in each of the nine seasons.

In the past three years he has been a bargain as Denver continued to be considered a run first team and the new guy in town was supposed to take over. That new guy had been Lelie and he didn't take over, but was a perfect complement to Rod's skills. Lelie blew down field and left Rod room to operate and the Broncos favored the WRs over the TEs as well.

There's a double whammy to consider this year. If Walker is healthy, he will be a different complement to Rod. If Walker struggles and if Lelie is gone, who'll take the heat off Rod?

I still see a successful season, but not quite up to the past few years. I predict 70 catches for 940 yards and 6 TDs. Depending on whether Lelie stays and if Walker is healthy, Rod could still present value at draft day.

 

[Cool in the pocket]

The Warrick Dunn of WR's, Smith always gets bypassed for a breakout 3rd year guy or some other up and comer and every year someone gets great value out of him on draft day. Nothing has really changed for Rod. Sure they brought in Javon, but he is recovering from an ACL injury which blows out this year as many players seem to need that year to recover fully. He has a new QB to develop chemistry with, a new playbook to learn and has only one season to brag about. Plummer trusts Rod and with the pressure is on, it'll be Rod he looks to till Walker and he develop on the field. In the last 4 years, he hasn't had less than 74 receptions and his targets have been very consistent (114-147). He also has been the leading red zone target for Plummer over those years. Walker has great size, especially for the red zone and will likely develop into WR1 for Denver, but I don't see it happening till 2007, though you may see glimpses of it this year.

79 catches, 990 yards, 7 TD's

Still prolly value on draft day.

 

[railman305]

walker will hurt his numbers a little but still I wouldn't sleep on a player as consistent as rod, if denver struggles to find their main RB then I'd bump up all denvers WRs numbers a decent amount,

-If denver finds it main RB and has the rushing game that it is known for i can see rod's numbers like last years but maybe with a drop off of 100 yards and 10 catches, but I can still see rod getting more receptions then javon walker

75-1005-6

 

[Boosuf]

Last year Rod Smith was the 16th best Wide Reciever (standard scoring) and this year his average draft position is 26. Is he undervalued again, or is his age finally catching up with him? Let's look at some key factors.

POSITIVES

1. Javon Walker will keep defenses from focusing as much on Smith.

2. Denver will throw more to wide recievers and less to the tight ends since they cut Putzier (481 yards last year) and replaced him with Scheffler, a promising rookie.

NEGATIVES

1. Smith is 36.

2. Walker will be targeted more than Lelie was last year and this could result in fewer passes to Smith.

PREDICTION

1. Lets start by giving Smith 75% of the average yards and TDs that he got when he was 32,33 and 34. (Jerry Rice- another ageless wonder- produced 75% in his 36th year of his averages in his 32-34th year. We can't use the 35th year since Rice missed almost all of that year.) That gives Smith 750 yds and 4 TDs.

2. Since Scheffler is probably replacing Putzier and since it may take a year for Plummer to throw as often to the rookie, let's give Smith an avg of 1 extra catch per game or 200 yds and 1 additional TD for a total of: 76 receptions for 950 yards and 5 TDs. This gives Smith 125 fantasy points which would make him the 26th best wide receiver based on last years results.

 

[rascal]

Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver.

No he isn't. There are other threads that have addressed this in detail. Carry on.

What a load of crock.Carry on.

 

[rascal]

He will finish in the top 25 yet again. Walker won't detract his totals very much considering that Plummer looks to him first and foremost on every single passing play. I expect another 1000 yard season and similar receptions and TD's as last year.

80/1100/6

 

[Tau837]

Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver.

No he isn't. There are other threads that have addressed this in detail. Carry on.

What a load of crock.Carry on.

If you have something original to say about it, visit one of these threads and do so:Future HOF Candidates

Better HOF Credentials?

Pick the New Crop of HOF Wide Receivers

Rod Smith

My opinions on the topic are well documented there, and there is no reason to hijack this thread to rehash the same stuff.

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm staying away from Rod this year even though he put together an amazing year for his age in '05. He looked visibly older to me and Walker, despite coming off an ACL injury, may still be the more explosive WR.

I'm just not real high on 36 year old WRs who appear to be slowing down. You can count on one hand WRs that have had an impact at the age of 37.

71 - 940 - 5

Still amazing for a player his age, but he lacks the upside to justify his fantasy ADP.

 

[lord_helmet]

I'm staying away from Rod this year even though he put together an amazing year for his age in '05. He looked visibly older to me and Walker, despite coming off an ACL injury, may still be the more explosive WR.

I'm just not real high on 36 year old WRs who appear to be slowing down. You can count on one hand WRs that have had an impact at the age of 37.

71 - 940 - 5

Still amazing for a player his age, but he lacks the upside to justify his fantasy ADP.

Visibly older... How ?, he was pretty damn good. And he's one of the most consistent WRs in the game

 

[LHUCKS]

I'm staying away from Rod this year even though he put together an amazing year for his age in '05.  He looked visibly older to me and Walker, despite coming off an ACL injury, may still be the more explosive WR. 

I'm just not real high on 36 year old WRs who appear to be slowing down.  You can count on one hand WRs that have had an impact at the age of 37.

71 - 940 - 5

Still amazing for a player his age, but he lacks the upside to justify his fantasy ADP.

Visibly older... How ?, he was pretty damn good. And he's one of the most consistent WRs in the game

He just seemed slow to me...I know that's not very descriptive, but it seemed the age is starting to catch up with him despite his steady production.

 

[lord_helmet]

rule #1 : Never badmouth Rod Smith

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

He's a player I respect very much, but I don't want him on my fantasy team this year.

a) I don't love the QB situation. The playoff loss could really affect Plummer this year (confidence-wise) and we might even see the rookie if things break down. That's not good news for the WRs

b) It's Denver. They're a running team. In the fourth quarter with a small lead, the team might gnore the passing game altogether.

c) Javon Walker didn't go to Denver to be a decoy. You have to expect that he'll be a major focal point of the passing offense-- a #1-A receiver at the very least.

d) Smith is 36-years-old. Come on. He's done all he could to carry the team when they didn't have another receiving option. But I think he'll be asked to do less with Walker in the lineup.

All this points to a guy I wouldn't want to start. 63-750-4.

On the other hand, I bet a lot of those catches go for important, chain-moving first-downs. That doesn't help his fantasy owners, but they'll still look to him on 3rd-and-6.

 

[Tau837]

b) It's Denver. They're a running team. In the fourth quarter with a small lead, the team might gnore the passing game altogether.

Decided to look this up. Check out these splits from last year:1st quarter: 25/333/2 receiving on 33 targets at 13.3 ypr2nd: 31/427/4 receiving on 43 targets at 13.8 ypr3rd: 16/192/0 receiving on 27 targets at 12.0 ypr4th & OT: 13/153/0 receiving on 23 targets at 11.8 yprThat is only 34.5 fantasy points all season in the second half, compared to 112.7 in the first half. Big discrepancy.As I was looking at his splits, I noticed a few other things:1. Only 12 targets in the red zone last year. Seems pretty low for a #1 WR, though he did catch 8 of those for 5 TDs, a pretty high TD conversion rate of 67%. In the previous 3 years, he had a combined 49 red zone targets, but he "only" converted those into 11 TDs (22.4%).Now they have added Walker who could steal red zone looks. Last year, Lelie was Denver's #2 WR, and he only had 8 RZ targets. A combined 20 RZ looks are not many for Smith & Walker to share, and Walker had 19 RZ targets for 11 catches and 7 TDs in 2004, so he's a pretty good target there.Smith only had 6 TDs last year, so only 1 was from outside the red zone. In fact, he has only had 5 TDs from outside the red zone in the past 4 years. To me, this data is a strong indicator that he'll be losing 2-3 red zone TDs. Can he make those up from outside the red zone? I doubt it.2. Smith only had 126 targets last year, which was 19th in the league. Lelie, the #2 WR, only had 88. Will Denver target its WRs much more frequently this season? If not, 214 targets isn't much for Walker & Smith to share. Hard for me to see Walker not getting more than 88. Does that add to Denver's WR targets or take away from Smith's? Or both? Bottom line: I don't see Smith getting 126 targets again.3. FBG has Smith with no statistics from 2002-2005 when Denver was trailing. This must be an error... no way he was not targeted once in the past 4 years when Denver was behind.Smith is being drafted at WR26, as the 83rd player drafted, per FBG ADP. I think there is little value and plenty of risk at that ADP.

 

[inca911]

80 rec: 1000 yards: 8 TDs

Since the TD projection is likely the most controversial, let's start there:

Rod had 12 TDs in 1997, 8 in 2000, 11 in 2001, even 7 as recently as 2004. He had 6 last year and was tackled inside the 5 a total of four times last year, and three more times inside the 10. The Oakland game in week 16 last year was tough for me as Rod was stopped at the 7, 4, 3, and 2 yard lines, earning me a loss.

Walker will get a lot of attention from Plummer, but Smith is already in tune with Plummer. More coverage rolling to Walker and taking off some of the heat, plus chemistry with Plummer will give Rod a nice year. 6 TDs is the low side for Smith. I have Rod at 7.5 TDs and I have Walker for 6.5.

Now for the yardage and reception totals:

Rod's hit 1000+ yards every year but one since 1997. He posted almost identical 1100+ yard seasons the past two years. Just last year he was #9 in total receptions for the entire league, earning him a Pro Bowl appearance.

Anything less than 1000 yards from Rod would be a large suprise. Whether he gets to 8 TDs is hard to tell. I think his red zone talent with reduced coverage due to Walker will increase his TDs. I did remove 100 yards from his yardage totals, and removed some catches to account for Walker's presence.

I agree they're bringing in Walker to take over from Rod, but not until Walker has at least a year in the system.

 

[Tau837]

80 rec: 1000 yards: 8 TDs

Since the TD projection is likely the most controversial, let's start there:

Rod had 12 TDs in 1997, 8 in 2000, 11 in 2001, even 7 as recently as 2004. He had 6 last year and was tackled inside the 5 a total of four times last year, and three more times inside the 10. The Oakland game in week 16 last year was tough for me as Rod was stopped at the 7, 4, 3, and 2 yard lines, earning me a loss.

Walker will get a lot of attention from Plummer, but Smith is already in tune with Plummer. More coverage rolling to Walker and taking off some of the heat, plus chemistry with Plummer will give Rod a nice year. 6 TDs is the low side for Smith. I have Rod at 7.5 TDs and I have Walker for 6.5.

Now for the yardage and reception totals:

Rod's hit 1000+ yards every year but one since 1997. He posted almost identical 1100+ yard seasons the past two years. Just last year he was #9 in total receptions for the entire league, earning him a Pro Bowl appearance.

Anything less than 1000 yards from Rod would be a large suprise. Whether he gets to 8 TDs is hard to tell. I think his red zone talent with reduced coverage due to Walker will increase his TDs. I did remove 100 yards from his yardage totals, and removed some catches to account for Walker's presence.

I agree they're bringing in Walker to take over from Rod, but not until Walker has at least a year in the system.

Rod Smith has scored 8 TDs a total of 3 times in 11 seasons. And 0 times in the last 4 seasons, none of which included another WR as talented as Walker. I'll certainly agree with you that the TDs you project are the most "controversial" (I'd call it unlikely).As for Smith being tackled inside the 5-10 often, I'd actually be interested to see that stat for all WRs to compare, but I don't know if it is available. My gut says there isn't a big difference between him, with 7 times tackled inside the 10, and other top 20 WRs. Maybe it happened to him a time or two more often, but that is more than offset by his low number of red zone targets (12) IMO.

 

[matt jones]

Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver.

No he isn't. There are other threads that have addressed this in detail. Carry on.

Uh yes he is. He's one of those players where you have to watch him to appreciate him. Not a stat guy. I wager you he will be in the hall-of-fame. Maybe not first ballot but he is definitely canton bound. 2-time superbowl champion. Led the team in receiving 9 years in a row. Undrafted free-agent. Yeah he's in get over it.

 

[Tau837]

Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver.

No he isn't. There are other threads that have addressed this in detail. Carry on.

Uh yes he is. He's one of those players where you have to watch him to appreciate him. Not a stat guy. I wager you he will be in the hall-of-fame. Maybe not first ballot but he is definitely canton bound. 2-time superbowl champion. Led the team in receiving 9 years in a row. Undrafted free-agent. Yeah he's in get over it.

See the threads I already posted above that discussed this in detail. I'm not going to argue with you here about it, but you'll find that you are in the minority in this view, and justifiably so. You're the one that will have to get over it.

 

[gman8343]

Rod Smith is a hall of fame receiver.

No he isn't. There are other threads that have addressed this in detail. Carry on.

Uh yes he is. He's one of those players where you have to watch him to appreciate him. Not a stat guy. I wager you he will be in the hall-of-fame. Maybe not first ballot but he is definitely canton bound. 2-time superbowl champion. Led the team in receiving 9 years in a row. Undrafted free-agent. Yeah he's in get over it.

 

[Neil Beaufort Zod]

b) It's Denver. They're a running team. In the fourth quarter with a small lead, the team might gnore the passing game altogether.

Decided to look this up. Check out these splits from last year:1st quarter: 25/333/2 receiving on 33 targets at 13.3 ypr

2nd: 31/427/4 receiving on 43 targets at 13.8 ypr

3rd: 16/192/0 receiving on 27 targets at 12.0 ypr

4th & OT: 13/153/0 receiving on 23 targets at 11.8 ypr

That is only 34.5 fantasy points all season in the second half, compared to 112.7 in the first half. Big discrepancy.

As I was looking at his splits, I noticed a few other things:

1. Only 12 targets in the red zone last year. Seems pretty low for a #1 WR, though he did catch 8 of those for 5 TDs, a pretty high TD conversion rate of 67%. In the previous 3 years, he had a combined 49 red zone targets, but he "only" converted those into 11 TDs (22.4%).

Now they have added Walker who could steal red zone looks. Last year, Lelie was Denver's #2 WR, and he only had 8 RZ targets. A combined 20 RZ looks are not many for Smith & Walker to share, and Walker had 19 RZ targets for 11 catches and 7 TDs in 2004, so he's a pretty good target there.

Smith only had 6 TDs last year, so only 1 was from outside the red zone. In fact, he has only had 5 TDs from outside the red zone in the past 4 years. To me, this data is a strong indicator that he'll be losing 2-3 red zone TDs. Can he make those up from outside the red zone? I doubt it.

2. Smith only had 126 targets last year, which was 19th in the league. Lelie, the #2 WR, only had 88. Will Denver target its WRs much more frequently this season? If not, 214 targets isn't much for Walker & Smith to share. Hard for me to see Walker not getting more than 88. Does that add to Denver's WR targets or take away from Smith's? Or both? Bottom line: I don't see Smith getting 126 targets again.

3. FBG has Smith with no statistics from 2002-2005 when Denver was trailing. This must be an error... no way he was not targeted once in the past 4 years when Denver was behind.

Smith is being drafted at WR26, as the 83rd player drafted, per FBG ADP. I think there is little value and plenty of risk at that ADP.

Thanks for giving my hunch some validity with facts. The risk/reward seems too lopsided for fantasy owners to consider Smith as a viable starter. Even owners in leagues that start three receivers should be wary.

 

[Musesboy]

Predicted

80 receptions 1050 yards 6 TDs

Actual

52 receptions 512 yards 3 TDs

Well, he got about half of what I expected

Most predictions had Smith gaining 900-1100 receiving yards. The QB situation surprised me and Walker did much better than I thought in his first season after the injury. I completely blew this prediction.

Neil Beaufort Zod was closest with 750/4

Why doesn't Rod Smith get much respect? He has led the Broncos for nine straight seasons, including the last three with Jake Plummer under center. He has only failed to post 1000 yards once during that span, and has exceeded 1100 yards for the last two seasons. He has only missed three games in the last nine years.

Smith's low ranking comes down to two things: Javon Walker was signed, and Smith is now 36 years old. It seems that most people think that Walker will automatically be the main receiver for the Broncos this year. Walker is a big target at 6' 3" and he has posted one great season where he caught 89 passes for 1382 yards and 12 TDs. That was back in 2004 and remains Walker's only 1000 yard season. He was injured in the opening game last year and is battling back from a torn ACL.

Receivers that change teams do not often perform at their previous level; at least not immediately. The ones that do tend to have a lot of experience. Add in the injury concerns and the fact that Smith is a proven number one and clearly trusted by Plummer, and I think it may be a bit soon to declare Walker the main target in Denver.

Smith may be 36, but he had 15 gains of 20 or more yards last year. That's the same as Torry Holt and one behind Chad Johnson. He has only ever exceeded that figure once. He still managed to average 13 yards per reception and had one gain of 72 yards.

I think that Smith is still an effective receiver and that he has enough speed that when combined with Plummer's trust, it will be enough for him to retain the main receiving role in Denver this year. Walker is a bigger target, but Smith's value is not reliant on his TD production in any case. He averages around six per season.

Prediction

80 receptions 1050 yards 6 TDs

 

[mlball77]

Yikes, Smith killed me on this one... but I think he did the same to most of us that gave his stat projections a crack.