Player Spotlight: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2013 Player Spotlight Series

One of Footballguys best assets is our message board community. The Shark Pool is, in our view, the best place on the internet to discuss, debate and analyze all things fantasy football. In what's become an annual tradition, the Player Spotlight series is a key part of the preseason efforts. As many of you know, we consider the Player Spotlight threads the permanent record for analyzing the fantasy prospects of the player in question. This year, we plan to publish more than 140 offensive spotlights covering the vast majority of expected skill position starters.

As always we will post a list of players to be discussed each week. Those threads will remain open for the entire preseason, and should be a central point to discuss expectations for the player in question. Importantly, analysis done in the first week of posting will be part of the permanent record in two ways. 1) At the end of the week, we will tally the projections into a consensus. 2) We will select a number of pull quotes from forum contributors who make a compelling statement or observation. Both the projections and pull quotes will be part of a published article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Ryan Tannehill, QB, Miami Dolphins

Player Page Link: Ryan Tannehill Player Page

Each article will include:

• Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
• Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
• FBG Projections
• Consensus Member Projections
  

The Rules

In order for this thread to provide maximum value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

• Focus commentary on the player (or players) in question, and your expectations for said player (or players)
• Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
• Avoid redundancies or ... this should be about incremental analysis or debate
  

While not a requirement, we strongly encourage you to provide your own projections for the player (players):

Projections should include:

• For QBs: Attempts, Completions, Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Attempts, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
• For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
• For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
  

Now let's get on with the conversation! We look forward to your contributions and let me offer a personal thanks in anticipation of the great debate and analysis.

 

[plastik]

I see modest improvements in all categories, with improved ypa from deep balls to Wallace. Also possible is a significant bonus from scrambling, which Tannehill seemed to do more of towards the end of last season.

Passing: 520/306 (59%) @ 7.1 avg = 3,692 / 24 tds / 14 int

Rushing: 60 att @ 4.2 avg = 252 / 2 td

He should be a strong QB2, I think. This may be a bit rosier an outlook than most would project, but I think Tanne makes some nice strides this year. That said, I don't really see too much upside beyond this prediction for 2013.

 

[Eminence]

Yeah, he definitely has the cannon to sling it to Wallace. Hrm...My bet is he goes undrafted in most leagues. I think Miami relies heavily on Lamar Miller as opposed to Tannehill. I really like Tannehill but I don't think he offers a lot of upside this season. He will increase his worth this year though, Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace are two-great skill players in Miami.

 

[Bracie Smathers]

I see modest improvements in all categories, with improved ypa from deep balls to Wallace. Also possible is a significant bonus from scrambling, which Tannehill seemed to do more of towards the end of last season.

Passing: 520/306 (59%) @ 7.1 avg = 3,692 / 24 tds / 14 int

Rushing: 60 att @ 4.2 avg = 252 / 2 td

He should be a strong QB2, I think. This may be a bit rosier an outlook than most would project, but I think Tanne makes some nice strides this year. That said, I don't really see too much upside beyond this prediction for 2013.

Wait a second, wait a second.

Modest?

Last year Tanny only threw 12 touchdowns as he tossed 13 inteceptions.

You say you expect 'modest' improvements.

How is doubling his touchdowns and only having one more interceptioi considered a 'modest' improvement?

 

[Jason Wood]

Yeah, he definitely has the cannon to sling it to Wallace. Hrm...My bet is he goes undrafted in most leagues. I think Miami relies heavily on Lamar Miller as opposed to Tannehill. I really like Tannehill but I don't think he offers a lot of upside this season. He will increase his worth this year though, Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace are two-great skill players in Miami.

He's currently being drafted 22nd among quarterbacks, so he's going to be drafted in most leagues, but as one of the last few QBs selected it would seem.

 

[FF Ninja]

I'm very interested in Tannehill this year. As a very green QB he was thrust into the starting role (possibly the least college starts of any week 1 rookie starter ever) when Garrard was injured before week 1 of the preseason and Matt Moore failed to impress the coaching staff. Despite a piss poor receiving corps, he managed a very good rookie campaign compared to rookie QBs of the past, but this was overshadowed by the play of Luck, Griffin, Wilson, and to some extent, 2nd year player Kaepernick. This overshadowing has led to Griffin, Kaepernick, and Wilson being overdrafted and Tannehill sliding to an ADP just barely above where he finished last year (QB22 vs. QB24).

This year Miami has made some changes - including the loss of his injured LT and his starting RB. But he's gained several offensive weapons, namely Mike Wallace. Personally, I think Wallace will fit in quite well with Tannehill's mobility and strong arm. Additionally, Miami finished 24th last year in passing attempts per game. It is likely that he'll surpass last year's 484 attempts. I think the improvement in the receiving corps will help him with his ypa and his TDs (along with the experience), but I also think he probably caught some bad breaks on touchdowns last year. Just looking at his #1 WR's stat line should tell you something just didn't fall their way - 74 rec 1083 yds 1 TD. In fact, no WR caught more than 1 TD. The WR corps totalled 299 targets, 184 receptions, 2504 yards, and 4 TD. Anthony Fasano was the only player with more than 2 TDs. I think we see a substantial uptick in his TD total this year.

In addition to the increased TD production, I would think such a green QB would see his completion percentage increase as well, given the additional experience and his better weapons. I'm predicting he increases from 58.3% to 61%. I also think his yards per completion sees at least a small bump from 11.7 to 12 as I anticipate Wallace (17.2 career ypc) has an effect while Fasano's 8.1 ypc is either improved upon or phased out.

Another notable feature in Tannehill's stat line is his rushing. Much like Russell Wilson, he did very little rushing early in the season... 21 rushes for 16 yards in the first 10 games. He ended the year with 181 yards in 6 games. Much like Wilson, I don't think Miami intends to feature Tannehill as a runner, but given his athleticism, I do think he'll average more than 1-2 yards per game.

525 att x 61% = 320 x 12 ypc = 3840 yds 24 TD 15 INT, 60 carries x 5 ypc = 300 yards 2 TD

Before anyone flips out about the TDs, keep in mind Buffalo threw 24 TDs last year on 510 attempts and the median PTD in the NFL was 23. I don't have a lot of faith in the Miami ground game, so I think they'll lean on Tannehill and the receivers to score TDs.

 

[gianmarco]

Yeah, he definitely has the cannon to sling it to Wallace. Hrm...My bet is he goes undrafted in most leagues. I think Miami relies heavily on Lamar Miller as opposed to Tannehill. I really like Tannehill but I don't think he offers a lot of upside this season. He will increase his worth this year though, Lamar Miller and Mike Wallace are two-great skill players in Miami.

He's currently being drafted 22nd among quarterbacks, so he's going to be drafted in most leagues, but as one of the last few QBs selected it would seem.

He's the ideal QB2 if you have a legit starter (Cam, Rodgers, Brees, etc.). Huge upside, low cost. I take him over guys like Flacco, Ben, Eli all day long even though they will be taken higher.

 

[Mr. Irrelevant]

Tannehill is going to be a fascinating case study for me. A guy whose measurables and college performance suggested he'd be well-suited to be a 3rd-round draft pick and (given his limited experience) spend a couple of years picking up the vagaries of NFL offenses while carrying a clipboard before earning a chance to start in, say, 2014.

Instead, he gets wildly overdrafted, anointed the future of the franchise, then shoved out on stage for the opening curtain to lead an offense with mediocre talent that hadn't been designed around him in the first place. It's like he'd bought a season pass to 'The David Carr Experience'.

Nothing about either his college career or his first year suggests to me he's likely to ever be an elite QB, but "Andy Dalton with a stronger arm and better wheels" seems likely and isn't a bad comp to hang your dynasty hat on.

And I'd expect his second year to shake out much like Dalton's did - slight improvements almost across the board, with an additional bump to Y/A and TD's to account for Wallace's arrival in town. I don't expect the Fins to go pass-happy this year because of that, but 2 extra attempts per game seems reasonable. I see his C% remaining below average, both because Wallace is primarily a downfield threat and because Tannehill's never been surgically accurate. So let's call it 59% comp, 3.7% TD, 2.9% Int.

He'll make a few plays with his legs, but I doubt he'll ever become a Cam-like threat at the goal line. Let's bump him up to 3.5 rushes a game at a 5ypc clip.

That all adds up to: 305/516/3,660 yds, 19 TD/15 Int; 56 rushes, 280 yds, 3 TD. Which puts him in QB18-19 territory, and isn't gonna win you a title as your starter but is more than adequate for a backup you can get at QB23 or thereabouts. Another reason I'd be happy to target him there is that his risks from that base are mainly to the upside, while those of many in his general ADP vicinity (Cutler, Schaub, Palmer, Vick) are much more to the downside.

 

[IHEARTFF]

I tend to agree with the assessments of Tannehill so far. I expect some improvements across the board with more experience and better weapons less Bush.

In addition to Wallace, they added Dustin Keller to replace Anthony Fasano. Keller is a better athlete and has been more productive despite having Mark Sanchez as his qb in his first 4 seasons. Hartline should be more efficient as these 2 will draw the defense away from him.

The Dolphins tied for the fewest 40+ yard passing plays last season and I expect Wallace to add at least 3 or 4 more of those.

Let's call it:

315/524 = 60%

7.2 YPA = 3,775 yards

20 TDs

14 INTs

2 fumbles

50 carries @ 5.0 = 250 yards, 3 TDs

17+ PPG in standard scoring a nice #2 QB to play in certain weeks.

 

[Ray Finkle]

315/520 for 3,700 with 23/16 and 70 rushes for 380/3

 

[ShowMe]

315/520 for 3,700 with 23/16 and 70 rushes for 380/3

Those are VERY lofty numbers. That's nearly a 20 ppg avg, and in 2012 that would have ranked him as the #12 QB.......a QB1.

 

[ShaHBucks]

He has a way to go before he joins any QBBC of mine. You'll hear he needs time to mature for another 3-4 seasons. He's in a tier with Jake Locker and Blaine Gabbert. I expect those guys to finish within a few ppg from each other. Tannehill will get better, but it won't be a step towards being startable week-to-week.

2,88016TD/13INT 196 rYDS

 

[Craig_MiamiFL]

I expect a pretty rough year for Tannehill. He still doesn't go through progressions and is dealing with 4 new starters to try to become

accustomed to (L.Miller/Wallace/Keller/B.Gibson)

3500 yards 15 TD 22 INT

Stat from 2012: Games that Tannehill threw more than 30 times -- 3 TD 10 INT. JMO I think this will continue to be a trend if the Dolphins try to open things up with him in 2013. Weapons have obviously improved, but I think fundamentally Tannehill has a crap load to work on (footwork,progressions,reading defenses).