Player Spotlight: Santana Moss (1 Viewer)

[Jason Wood]

2006 Player Spotlight Series

Over the course of the offseason, we will be evaluating a multitude of players at every fantasy position. One such way we go about that is through the Player Spotlight series. Think of the Spotlights as a permanent record on some of the more intriguing players for the upcoming season. Each Spotlight will be featured in an article on the main website.

Thread Topic: Santana Moss, WR, Washington Redskins

Player Page Link: Santana Moss Player Page

Each article will include:

Detailed viewpoint from a Footballguys staff member
Highlighted member commentary from the message board threads
FBG Projections
Consensus Member ProjectionsThe Rules

In order for this thread to provide sustainable value, we ask that you follow a few simple guidelines:

Focus commentary on the player in question, and your expectations for said player
Back up your expectations in whatever manner you deem appropriate; avoid posts that simply say "I hate him" or "He's the best"
To be included in the final synopsis and consensus outlook, you MUST provide projections for the playerProjections should include (at a minimum):

For QBs: Passing Yards, Passing TDs, Ints, Rush Yards, Rush TDs
For RBs: Rushes, Rushing Yards, Rush TDs, Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDs
For WRs & TEs: Receptions, Receiving Yards, Receiving TDsBest of Luck and ENJOY!

 

[joffer]

Many seem to be predicting a huge dropoff from last year for Moss due to the presence of better WRs to steal targets. I'm not sure when Brandon Lloyd and Randle-El suddenly became the 2nd and 3rd coming.

Moss is still the clear go-to guy, still the deep threat, still the recipient of that awesome WR screen they run. I see a decrease in production, but not a big one.

77/1285/7

 

[Aaronur]

I agree, he has proven that when he plays the whole season. If anything that offence is going to be better and he might might not get as big a piece of the pie but I don't see him not being productive. I also think, much like steve smith his big play ablitity, turning short passes into big gains will make him effective even if Brunell goes down.

I see similar numbers to Joffer

80/1300/9

ETA- Even with the Strong Armed Pennington he averaged 15ypc hard to see him not doing at least that again

 

[redman]

I'm more conservative than you guys are. The only #1 WR in football last year who had a larger share of his team's passing game was Steve Smith. They have a new offensive coordinator, and two new FA WR's who I think will surprise most people by reaching or exceeding their career numbers. Saunders' offense is going to spread the ball around, and he hasn't had this good of a combination of WR's, TE's and RB's since he coached the Rams under Vermeil in '99.

For Moss I'm thinking he's getting something along the lines of 74/1260/8.

 

[diesel7982]

Interesting.

I dont have nearly the hope for Santana that everyone else seems to.

I dont like the QB situation in Washington, as Brunell looked near death last year after a hot start. Campbell will not be ready.

I also don't think Moss will see nearly the same amount of targets as he did last year, as I believe we will see Cooley and Portis used even more, and Randle El and Lloyd will also be worked in.

60/990/7

 

[Andy Dufresne]

Moss will be extremely overvalued this year.

While the beginning and end of his season last year were good, the middle of his season was barely mediocre...

Link

70/900/7

 

[joffer]

Moss will be extremely overvalued this year.

While the beginning and end of his season last year were good, the middle of his season was barely mediocre...

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235234/gamelogs/2005]Link

70/900/7

I can understand if you see a dropoff in production, but you've got to explain a drop in YPC from 17.7 to 12.8

 

[diesel7982]

Moss will be extremely overvalued this year.

While the beginning and end of his season last year were good, the middle of his season was barely mediocre...

http://www.nfl.com/players/playerpage/235234/gamelogs/2005]Link

70/900/7

I can understand if you see a dropoff in production, but you've got to explain a drop in YPC from 17.7 to 12.8

Agreed...is SMOSS gets 900, its on 55-60 catches. Which is probably more realistic with Saunders running the offense and Lloyd/Randel El in town.

 

[Z-Dog]

I predict injuries to either Moss, or his QB, or both.

I don't think Moss will reach 1,000 yards this season, though I expect him to play well in games that he starts. I'm only predicting about 8 starts for him, and that gives me about 650 yards and a couple of TDs.

 

[redman]

I predict injuries to either Moss, or his QB, or both.

I don't think Moss will reach 1,000 yards this season, though I expect him to play well in games that he starts. I'm only predicting about 8 starts for him, and that gives me about 650 yards and a couple of TDs.

I can understand a prediction of injury to Brunell given his age and that he's had injuries for the past several years, but why predict an injury to Moss? What's this based on?

 

[Reaper]

I predict injuries to either Moss, or his QB, or both.

I don't think Moss will reach 1,000 yards this season, though I expect him to play well in games that he starts. I'm only predicting about 8 starts for him, and that gives me about 650 yards and a couple of TDs.

I can understand a prediction of injury to Brunell given his age and that he's had injuries for the past several years, but why predict an injury to Moss? What's this based on?

When Moss was a Jet, he was "questionable" more often than not.....I believe last year was his 1st healthy season and if you were a Jet fan counting on him every week, it's hard to forget. If You're a Skins fan, All you have intimately seen is a Career Year and a Healthy one......

 

[redman]

I predict injuries to either Moss, or his QB, or both.

I don't think Moss will reach 1,000 yards this season, though I expect him to play well in games that he starts. I'm only predicting about 8 starts for him, and that gives me about 650 yards and a couple of TDs.

I can understand a prediction of injury to Brunell given his age and that he's had injuries for the past several years, but why predict an injury to Moss? What's this based on?

When Moss was a Jet, he was "questionable" more often than not.....I believe last year was his 1st healthy season and if you were a Jet fan counting on him every week, it's hard to forget. If You're a Skins fan, All you have intimately seen is a Career Year and a Healthy one......

He's missed 2 games in the last four seasons. "Questionable" means nothing to me - everyone gets banged up from time to time. They're not playing touch football.

 

[Reaper]

I predict injuries to either Moss, or his QB, or both.

I don't think Moss will reach 1,000 yards this season, though I expect him to play well in games that he starts. I'm only predicting about 8 starts for him, and that gives me about 650 yards and a couple of TDs.

I can understand a prediction of injury to Brunell given his age and that he's had injuries for the past several years, but why predict an injury to Moss? What's this based on?

When Moss was a Jet, he was "questionable" more often than not.....I believe last year was his 1st healthy season and if you were a Jet fan counting on him every week, it's hard to forget. If You're a Skins fan, All you have intimately seen is a Career Year and a Healthy one......

He's missed 2 games in the last four seasons. "Questionable" means nothing to me - everyone gets banged up from time to time. They're not playing touch football.

Fair enough.This is mostly opinions and you asked why someone may think of him as a possible injury risk... As a Jet he was considered a bit fragile and when he was questionable with Hammy problems, he was often a liability, as is often the case with players that rely on speed a lot.. he did play somewhat in many of those games but, last year was really his only year as a top producer.

Right now his ADP at Antsports is 4.2 to me that's a tough pick and I think I could find better value than that. I feel in most of our redraft leagues, he's going to be overvalued based on those really good numbers last year that will be hard to come near.

 

[joffer]

This is mostly opinions and you asked why someone may think of him as a possible injury risk... As a Jet he was considered a bit fragile and when he was questionable with Hammy problems, he was often a liability, as is often the case with players that rely on speed a lot.. he did play somewhat in many of those games but, last year was really his only year as a top producer.

he was WR8 in 2003and projecting less than half the previous year's output due to an injury and considering him an injury "risk" are two different things

 

[Phlash]

I see a dropoff in receptions, yards, and TDs, solely because I believe that Al Saunders is going to go to the TEs more often. However, I'm not anticipating the dropoff everyone else is.

76/1310/6

 

[Reaper]

This is mostly opinions and you asked why someone may think of him as a possible injury risk... As a Jet he was considered a bit fragile and when he was questionable with Hammy problems, he was often a liability, as is often the case with players that rely on speed a lot.. he did play somewhat in many of those games but, last year was really his only year as a top producer.

he was WR8 in 2003and projecting less than half the previous year's output due to an injury and considering him an injury "risk" are two different things

That wasn't my projection, I was merely answering why some people consider him an injury risk....

 

[mlball77]

I think that with the other WRs WAS brought in and the likely larger role Cooley will have, Moss will see a small-noticeable drop in his numbers. That said; he proved to be very valuable last season for WAS and had a good on field rapport with Brunell. If Brunell stays healthy and has a solid season, I see no real reason not to expect a very solid season out of Moss.

Recs: 70

Rec Yds: 1155

Tds: 7

 

[Z-Dog]

I predict injuries to either Moss, or his QB, or both.

I don't think Moss will reach 1,000 yards this season, though I expect him to play well in games that he starts. I'm only predicting about 8 starts for him, and that gives me about 650 yards and a couple of TDs.

I can understand a prediction of injury to Brunell given his age and that he's had injuries for the past several years, but why predict an injury to Moss? What's this based on?

Every year, guys in the top 20 fall out of the top 20 because of injuries to themselves, to their teammates, or to a host of other factors. Santana Moss is classic example of a guy with all the markers. He has a history of being gimpy - as an owner who has owned Moss in every year since he entered the league, I remember that it was difficult to know when he would play (since he was always listed as questionable) and that he was highly inconsistent from game to game. I don't remember who said he only missed 2 games in four years, but that's deceptive, since he played, but didn't always start, or started, but didn't do much damage. I see him settling into an Eric Moulds-type career. He will have some great years and some awful years, and I'm pretty much only going to draft him following his awful years. I'll be that next year, his ADP is somewhere around round 8-9.Here are the factors that contribute to my thinking, besides the ones mentioned above.

1. Brunell won't last the season as a starter, and Campbell is inexperienced

2. The addition of new WRs will hold down how often Moss is thrown the ball, as will the continued development of Cooley

3. Defensese are going to be much more focused on stopping Moss. Looking at last year's 2nd-half performance is very educational. Other than Moss's 160 yard 3-TD performance against the Giants late in the season, Moss didn't have a single 100-yard game in November and December. From 10/24-12/23, Moss had only 2 TDs in 8 games. Basically, Moss had three huge games last season, against Dallas (5-159-2), KC (10-173-2), and the Giants (5-160-3). I'm not saying huge games don't count, and every top WR has some big ones. I'm just saying that Moss did very little in the second half of the season, and his numbers look a lot better b/c he managed to get in the end zone three times against the Giants.